Group 1 - The report identifies the second round of the commodity supercycle driven by the expansion of dollar credit cracks during the Kondratiev depression phase, suggesting that this phase will enhance the monetary attributes of commodities, particularly gold and industrial metals, as safe assets amid increasing geopolitical uncertainties [1][9][10] - Historical patterns indicate a rotation in the commodity supercycle: gold rises first, followed by industrial metals, oil, and finally agricultural products, with each phase influenced by geopolitical factors and economic conditions [2][14][16] - Current oil prices are deemed undervalued due to strategic oil inventories reaching historical lows, and a potential increase in oil prices is anticipated if the geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, eases by 2026 [3][21][23] Group 2 - The report outlines three key signals to watch for a potential reversal in oil prices: willingness of major oil-producing countries to negotiate production cuts, effective execution of production cuts, and strengthening of reduction agreements over time [4][27][28] - The analysis predicts that 2026 will mark a turning point towards prosperity, with a significant rise in global oil prices expected if the geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a renewed focus on commodities as safe assets [5][37] - Industry allocation recommendations include focusing on metals (gold, silver, copper, lithium), consumer sectors benefiting from wealth return and improved consumption tendencies, and high-end manufacturing sectors with export advantages [5][39]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - xAI has invested over $20 billion in building a data center in Mississippi, indicating a significant push towards AI computing infrastructure, with recommended companies including Shiyuan Electric, Dongfang Electric, Sifang Co., and Igor [1] - China has applied for over 200,000 satellite frequency resources from the ITU, reflecting ongoing growth in the commercial aerospace sector, with recommended stocks including Maiwei Co., Foster, and Goldwind Technology [1] - The wind and solar utilization rates have remained above 94%, with Shanghai Electric entering the nuclear fusion industry through a strategic partnership with New Energy [2] - The cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 2026 may impact the solar industry [3] - The solid-state battery technology has achieved a breakthrough with the successful cross-strait flight of an eVTOL aircraft, showcasing advancements in energy density and safety [4][63] Summary by Sections AI and Computing Infrastructure - xAI's investment in data centers highlights the growing demand for AI computing capabilities, with specific companies recommended for investment [1] Commercial Aerospace - The application for satellite frequency resources indicates a robust future for the commercial aerospace sector, with several companies identified as potential investment opportunities [1] Renewable Energy - The wind and solar sectors are performing well, maintaining high utilization rates, and new developments in nuclear fusion are being pursued by major players [2] Policy Changes - The upcoming changes in VAT export rebates for solar products could have significant implications for the industry, particularly affecting pricing and competitiveness [3] Battery Technology - The successful application of solid-state batteries in aviation marks a significant technological advancement, with implications for future energy storage solutions [4][63]

- The weekly performance of public quantitative funds shows that the average excess return of CSI 500 index-enhanced funds was -1.79%, with no funds achieving positive excess returns during the week[1][3][10] - Monthly performance data indicates that the average excess return of CSI 500 index-enhanced funds remained at -1.79%, consistent with the weekly data, and no funds achieved positive excess returns during the month[2][10][34] - Year-to-date (YTD) performance reveals that the average excess return of CSI 500 index-enhanced funds was -1.79%, with no funds achieving positive excess returns so far this year[3][10][34] - The average return of active quantitative funds for the week was 4.17%, with 98.81% of funds achieving positive returns[1][10][34] - The average return of active quantitative funds for the month was also 4.17%, consistent with the weekly data, and 98.81% of funds achieved positive returns during the month[2][10][34] - Year-to-date (YTD) performance of active quantitative funds shows an average return of 4.17%, with 98.81% of funds achieving positive returns so far this year[3][10][34] - The weekly average return of market-neutral quantitative funds was -0.07%, with 36.36% of funds achieving positive returns[1][10][34] - Monthly performance data for market-neutral quantitative funds shows an average return of -0.07%, consistent with the weekly data, and 36.36% of funds achieved positive returns during the month[2][10][34] - Year-to-date (YTD) performance of market-neutral quantitative funds reveals an average return of -0.07%, with 36.36% of funds achieving positive returns so far this year[3][10][34]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in value exceeding 10% compared to the market benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Health, marking its entry into the healthcare sector, which aims to provide personalized health information and tools, potentially establishing a personal assistant for users [1]. - The AI sector is entering a new phase of capitalization, with companies like Zhiyu and Minimax recently going public, with Minimax's market value surpassing 100 billion HKD [2]. - DeepSeek is expected to release its next-generation flagship model, V4, in February, which reportedly surpasses current top models in programming capabilities and data understanding [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Developments - OpenAI's ChatGPT Health is developed in collaboration with over 260 doctors and aims to provide practical health information, addressing a significant market demand with over 230 million weekly inquiries on health topics [1]. - The partnership with b.well connects OpenAI users to a network of approximately 2.2 million healthcare providers, enhancing the integration of medical records [1]. Market Trends - The recent IPOs of Zhiyu and Minimax reflect a strong market response, with Zhiyu's market cap nearing 70 billion HKD and Minimax's exceeding 100 billion HKD after a 109% increase on its first trading day [2]. - Anticipation for DeepSeek's V4 model suggests a potential catalyst for the AI sector, with improvements in performance stability and programming capabilities [2]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies to watch include AI application firms such as Hehe Information, Dingjie Smart, and others, as well as domestic AI chip manufacturers like Cambricon and Haiguang Information [3].

Inflation Data Summary - December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest since March 2023[1] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, better than the same period last year[1] PPI Insights - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a larger growth compared to the previous month[2] - Year-on-year PPI decreased by 1.9%, but the decline is narrowing compared to last month[2] Food and Energy Prices - December food CPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[5] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 8.2%, with transportation fuel prices down 1.1% month-on-month[5] Core CPI and Rental Prices - Core CPI remained stable year-on-year at 1.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[5] - Rental prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, indicating a further widening of the decline[5] Economic Outlook - The fourth quarter shows a rebound in CPI and PPI growth, suggesting a potential increase in nominal GDP growth[2] - Inflation and nominal GDP growth trends are expected to continue into 2026[2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is gaining momentum with significant technological advancements, such as the successful operation of the "Honghuang 70" superconducting tokamak achieving 120 seconds of steady-state long-pulse plasma operation, marking a milestone for commercial nuclear fusion development [1] - The global controllable nuclear fusion market is projected to reach approximately $331.5 billion by 2024, indicating a vast market potential [3] - Major economies are strategically prioritizing the future of nuclear fusion, providing support through policies and funding to accelerate the industrialization process [3] Summary by Sections - **Technological Developments**: The "Honghuang 70" device has made significant progress in achieving reliable long-pulse operation, with ongoing improvements in hardware performance and operational capabilities [1] - **Upcoming Events**: The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference will be held in Hefei, China, aimed at promoting collaborative innovation and results transformation within the industry [2] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights several companies to watch, including those involved in low-temperature superconducting magnets, vacuum chambers, and power supply systems, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities within the nuclear fusion sector [3]

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 09 日 核心结论 分析师 【汽车】奇瑞汽车（09973.HK）首次覆盖报告：五大品牌各有亮点，先发 优势助力出海领先 预计 2025-2027 年公司营业收入分别为 3077 亿元、3570 亿元、3944 亿元， 分别同比增长 14%/16%/10%；归母净利润分别为 181 亿元、214 亿元、248 亿元，同比 28%/18%/16%，当前股价对应 PE 估值为 8.7/7.4/6.4 倍。首次 覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 【计算机】从 Gemini 电视到豆包上车，巨头不断深化 AI 终端布局 从 Gemini 电视到豆包上车，巨头不断深化 AI 终端布局 【计算机】数字人民币开启 2.0 时代：从 M0 向 M1 升维，生态繁荣可期 数字人民币开启 2.0 时代：从 M0 向 M1 升维，生态繁荣可期 【石油石化】石油石化行业点评：石化行业拐点或已出现，26 年长丝供需 格局改善盈利有望增长 1、全球炼化宏观条件逐步改善，石化行业拐点或已出现。2、25 年长丝链 条景气度上行，预计 26 年供需格局将进一步改善。3、反内卷有望带动行业 盈利增长，对应公 ...

豆包大模型加速"上车"，搭载量位于行业前列，合作车企包括奔驰、比亚 迪、奥迪、荣威、长安马自达、东风奕派等，价格带横跨十万级到三十万级， 车型形态覆盖轿车、SUV、混动、纯电。2025 年 9 月，奔驰与字节跳动宣布 签署升级战略合作备忘录，字节跳动将为奔驰在中国市场的智能座舱、智能 辅助驾驶功能研发，以及数字化营销、客户运营等方面提供支持，涉及豆包 大模型、大数据、AI 云原生算法、智驾云等核心技术，而后奔驰全新纯电 轿车 CLA 已搭载上豆包大模型作为虚拟助手。2025 年 12 月，比亚迪与火 山引擎宣布在智能座舱领域已达成深度合作，双方合作将豆包大模型深度融 入比亚迪自主研发的车载智能网联系统 DiLink 系统，在语音交互、内容推 荐、出行服务等多场景深度共创，打造"能推理、会思考、懂情绪"的全新 人机交互体验。双方合作还覆盖了智能进入（全场景数字钥匙）、座舱娱乐、 智能语音等多领域，推动 DiLink 系统持续 AI 进化。目前，座舱大模型的 合作已覆盖比亚迪旗下仰望、腾势、方程豹、王朝、海洋五大品牌的全量在 售车型。而上汽奥迪 E5 Sportback 则走的是"人车多端一体"的路线，它 和火山 ...

行业点评 | 石油石化 石化行业拐点或已出现，26 年长丝供需格局改善盈利有望增长 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 08 日 石油石化行业点评 摘要内容 全球炼化宏观条件逐步改善，石化行业拐点或已出现。1）海外落后炼能持 续退出，25 年海外炼化盈利显著修复，美国/新加坡裂解价差达 18.72/13.17 美元/桶，同比增长 24%/24%。2）政策方面，国内反内卷+消费税后移政策 推进，落后产能加速出清，海内外炼能退出共振带动行业开工率上行。3） 美联储降息下人民币升值预期升温，炼厂原油采购成本下降，根据我们的测 算，若汇率至 6.8，26 年东方盛虹/荣盛石化/中国石化利润增 15/19/198 亿 元，利润弹性为 732%/115%/50%。4）25 年炼化加工利润触底反弹，25Q3 荣盛石化/恒力石化/恒逸石化/东方盛虹/中国石化/华锦股份/上海石化平均毛 利率（TTM）为 11.5%，同比+0.6pcts、环比+0.9pcts。 25 年长丝链条景气度上行，预计 26 年供需格局将进一步改善。1）25 年长 丝链景气度上行，据百川盈孚，25 年 PX/PTA/长丝开工率为 84%/76%/89 ...

行业点评 | 计算机 数字人民币开启 2.0 时代：从 M0 向 M1 升维，生态繁荣可期 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 08 日 事件：人民网报道，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生 态体系于 2026 年 1 月 1 日正式启动实施。在总结十年研发试点经验基础上， 中国人民银行出台了《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融 基础设施建设的行动方案》（以下简称《行动方案》），从机制上明确了数字 人民币将从现金型 1.0 版进入存款货币型数字人民币 2.0 版。 数字人民币由 M0 向 M1 升维，实现了货币属性、管理模式、基础设施、激 励机制的多重升级。《行动方案》明确，银行机构为客户实名数字人民币钱 包余额计付利息，遵守存款利率定价自律约定。银行可以对数字人民币钱包 余额自主开展资产负债经营管理，由存款保险依法提供与存款同等的安全保 障。对非银行支付机构而言，数字人民币保证金与非银行支付机构客户备付 金无差异。为进一步明确运营机构责任和权利对称关系，行动方案还规范了 数字人民币计量框架，将银行类数字人民币业务运营机构的数字人民币纳入 准备金制度框架管理，其开立的数字人民币钱包 ...