Group 1 - Core conclusion: The report projects revenue for SMIC (688981.SH) to be 69.92 billion, 79.81 billion, and 92.52 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profit of 5.97 billion, 6.69 billion, and 8.19 billion yuan respectively, maintaining its leading position in the mainland foundry market [1][6] - SMIC is the largest foundry in mainland China, with production capabilities covering 350-7nm process nodes, and has made breakthroughs equivalent to 5nm technology [6] - The global market share of SMIC is expected to increase from 5.3% in 2023-2024 to 6%, moving from the 5th to the 3rd position globally [6] Group 2 - The report highlights the rapid growth of Weilon's (9985.HK) konjac products, with classic flavors like spicy and sour gaining market penetration, and new flavors like sesame sauce seeing quick sales growth [2][9] - The cost pressure on konjac powder is expected to decline from 2025 to 2027, leading to improved profit margins [10] - Revenue projections for Weilon are 7.33 billion, 8.45 billion, and 9.44 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profit expected to be 1.47 billion, 1.78 billion, and 2.10 billion yuan respectively, indicating significant growth [10] Group 3 - The report expresses optimism about the consumer sector, identifying four categories of investment opportunities, including low absolute valuation stocks with high dividends, stocks with improved fundamentals, reasonably valued stocks with high growth certainty, and sectors likely to benefit from short-term policy stimuli [3][12][13] - The consumer sector is expected to rebound due to improved fundamentals and cash flow, with specific companies showing positive changes in their competitive landscape [12] - The report suggests that the semiconductor market is poised for recovery, driven by AI and technological innovation, with a projected growth in the global semiconductor market from $679 billion in 2025 to $1,061 billion by 2030 [7]

随著劳动力短缺、精准农业需求增长、可持续生产压力等多种因素的推动， 农业机器人的渗透率会进一步提升。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，预计到 2029 年，全球农业机器人行业市场规模将以 53.3%的年均复合增长率增长至人民 币 749 亿元；预计至 2029 年，中国农业机器人市场将以 42.3%的增速增长 至人民币 200 亿元。未来，农业机器人将被引入育种、除草，以及果园、丘 陵、山地作业等更多农业场景中，加速中国农业机器人行业的快速发展。 行业动态跟踪 | 机械设备 农业无人机巨头极飞科技 IPO 申报，低空经济正当时 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 13 日 低空经济行业动态点评 极飞科技在农业无人机领域的市场地位是其核心优势之一。根据弗若斯特沙 利文报告，2024 年，极飞科技在全球农业无人机市场的市占率为 17.1%， 位列第二；在中国农业无人机市场的市占率为 20.8%，根据弗若斯特沙利文 数据，截至 2024 年，中国农业无人飞机前两大公司市占率已超 80%，在农 业机器人及无人机领域已形成"双寡头"格局，极飞科技凭借其在农业无人 机领域的技术积累（如精准喷洒、智能测绘）及对农业场景的深度理解， ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [34] Core Insights - The average daily trading volume of all A-shares on the Beijing Stock Exchange reached 19.0 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9% week-on-week [8][17] - The North Certificate 50 index fell by 1.42% during the week, with an average turnover rate of 2.3% [8][17] - The top five gainers for the week included Aomisen (349.8%), Changfu Co. (29.9%), Lingge Technology (29.8%), Jiuling Technology (15.1%), and Tonghui Electronics (12.1%) [17][18] - The top five losers were Luqiao Information (-12.6%), Tianhong Lithium Battery (-11.8%), Tonghui Information (-10.6%), Digital Human (-8.6%), and Yuanhang Precision (-8.5%) [17][19] Market Overview - The market experienced a significant decline in trading volume, with only two trading days during the week, leading to a synchronized pullback in major indices [3][27] - New stock listings performed well, indicating a structural divergence in market performance [3][27] - Over 40% of the 278 stocks in the market saw an increase, reflecting a pattern of "few active, many stable" [3][27] Key News and Policies - The Shanghai biopharmaceutical industry is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan this year, with state-owned funds accelerating their layout across the entire chain ecosystem [21] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments adjusted the technical requirements for tax exemptions on new energy vehicles, raising the range threshold for plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles to 100 km [20][21] Core Driving Factors Analysis - Macro liquidity remains ample, with the central bank conducting a 110 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, providing a stable liquidity environment for the capital market [23] - The release of long-term benefits from industrial policies, particularly in the biomedical field, is expected to accelerate industry standardization and promote specialized enterprises with core technologies [24][26] Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Short-term impacts from international trade tensions may enhance risk aversion, putting pressure on risk assets [30] - The expectation of supply chain restructuring is rising, with companies possessing supply chain autonomy likely to attract funding [30] - Traditional safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and gold may see increased demand in the short term [30] - Focus on companies with high R&D investment, leading market share in niche sectors, and capabilities for import substitution [32]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, SMIC (688981.SH), with a target price of 146.45 CNY and a target market value of 1,171.597 billion CNY for 2025, based on a 7.6 times PB valuation [5][19]. Core Insights - SMIC is positioned as the leading wafer foundry in mainland China, with advanced process technology that is domestically leading. The company has a production capacity covering 350-7nm process nodes and has made breakthroughs equivalent to 5nm technology [5][19]. - The semiconductor market is expected to recover, driven by AI and a resurgence in consumer electronics demand, with global semiconductor market size projected to grow from 679 billion USD in 2025 to 1,061 billion USD by 2030, reflecting a 5-year CAGR of 9% [2][13]. - The company is focusing on expanding its advanced process capacity, particularly in the 7/5/3nm nodes, which are expected to significantly increase its market share and revenue potential [2][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for SMIC from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 699.24 billion CNY, 798.12 billion CNY, and 925.16 billion CNY, respectively. Corresponding net profits are projected at 59.67 billion CNY, 66.92 billion CNY, and 81.85 billion CNY [4][19]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are expected to be 21% in 2025, 14% in 2026, and 15.9% in 2027, indicating a strong recovery trajectory following a downturn in 2023 [4][19]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - SMIC is the largest wafer foundry in mainland China, with a global market share projected to increase from 5.3% in 2023 to 6% in 2024, moving up to the third position globally [5][19]. - The company has a significant capacity for mature processes, with over 90% of its production currently in this category, but it also has substantial room for expansion in advanced processes [36][19]. Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is entering a new growth cycle driven by AI and technological innovation, with a notable increase in demand for advanced integrated circuits [2][13]. - The global market for 7nm and below processes is expected to be nearly double that of mature processes, highlighting the importance of advanced technology in future growth [2][19]. Operational Efficiency - SMIC has been increasing its capital expenditures significantly, from 140.22 billion CNY in 2019 to 539.13 billion CNY, which is expected to enhance its production capabilities and operational efficiency [15][42]. - The EBITDA margin has shown a stable upward trend, indicating improved core profitability despite fluctuations in gross and net margins due to rising depreciation costs [43][42].

行业点评 | 食品饮料 乐观看待板块机会，关注四类机会 消费行业观点更新 为什么我们当下对板块更加乐观？ 内需：四季度，优选低估变化+成长性新消费 短期来看，（1）当前基本面、资金面均处于低迷状态，行业在 10-20X 估值 中枢，具备不错的反弹空间。基本面利空（如白酒动销、家电国补退坡）预 期回落充分。（2）企业包袱出清比较干净，如啤酒、乳品、速冻库存接近低 位；头部白酒公司从三季度开始逐步供求平衡，批价近一个月保持稳定或降 幅收窄。（3）部分企业内部有积极变化，包含竞争格局改善、现金流改善等。 比如华润啤酒，分红提升，自由现金流改善；海尔事业部凝聚力显著上升、 盈利能力改善；（4）政策或时点型的有利因素，比如地产政策（家居家电， 高端白酒）、餐饮链条（海底捞等餐饮/餐饮供应链）；明年 2 月春节较晚，备 货周期较长。（5）新发股票相对较慢，相比 H1，当前新股发行略有放缓， 资金面供求关系有所缓解。 中期来看，（1）结构性增长仍在，如年轻消费群体、新中产、下沉市场、科 技消费、体验式消费动能仍然较充足，部分标的估值合理且未来三年盈利确 定性高增长；（2）美联储降息，海外降息中期存在外资回流。 外需：短期政 ...

行业日报 | 北交所 成交量持续温和，关注指数企稳回升 北交所市场点评——20251010 核心结论 行情回顾：1）指数层面：10 月 10 日北证 A 股成交金额达 188.8 亿元，较 上一交易日减少 2.52 亿元，北证 50 指数收盘价为 1506.91，下跌 1.24%， PE_TTM 为 70.79 倍。北证专精特新指数收盘价为 2596.13，下跌 1.22%。 2）个股层面：当日北交所 278 家公司中 182 家上涨，8 家平盘，88 家下跌。 其中涨幅前五的个股分别为：奥美森（349.8%）、同惠电子（13.6%）、格 利尔（8.0%）、开特股份（6.2%）、锦好医疗（6.1%）；跌幅前五的个股 分别为：天宏锂电（-10.4%）、天力复合（-7.6%）、欧普泰（-7.3%）、远 航精密（-6.9%）、新威凌（-6.3%）。 新闻汇总：1）两部门印发《政务领域人工智能大模型部署应用指引》：《指 引》强调场景牵引，政务部门可选择典型场景进行人工智能大模型探索应用， 包括政务服务、社会治理、机关办公和辅助决策等。《指引》强调规范部署， 政务部门应根据不同场景需求与现有技术基础，审慎选择实施路径， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has shown continuous growth in both scale and profitability, with a revenue of 3.02 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 501 million yuan, up 17% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is actively expanding its business across multiple sectors, including consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and reflective materials, with significant growth in AR-related products [2][3] - The AR glasses industry is experiencing substantial growth, with global AI smart glasses sales increasing by 216% year-on-year in Q1 2025, which is expected to further catalyze the development of the consumer AR glasses market [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 29.46%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 16.58%, up 0.51 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Revenue from the consumer electronics segment was 2.543 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, while automotive electronics AR+ revenue surged by 79% to 241 million yuan [2] Business Segments - The company is enhancing its collaboration with major clients in North America and South Korea, and has successfully launched mass production of coated filter projects for North American clients [2] - The automotive electronics segment is seeing significant growth, particularly in AR-HUD products, with successful project acquisitions from leading domestic manufacturers [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 7.403 billion yuan in 2025, 8.719 billion yuan in 2026, and 10.109 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.233 billion yuan, 1.474 billion yuan, and 1.727 billion yuan respectively [4][3] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion in the AR industry, with a well-established product matrix in AR/VR technology [3]

晨会纪要 核心结论 分析师 【策略】四季度策略展望：攻守易形 行业配置：冰火转换，"有新高"！ 【有】色金属：全球再工业化+去美元化逻辑主导下，大宗商品"走向 1978" （金/银/铜） 【新】消费：国民财富回流，居民边际消费倾向改善带来的大众消费需求（零 食/宠物/美护/旅游出行） 【高】端制造：跨境资本回流背景下，具备出口优势的新能源/化工/医疗器 械/工程机械等，以及自主可控背景下具备后发优势的国产算力链 【有色金属】藏格矿业（000408.SZ）公告点评：《采矿许可证》落地消除 隐忧，静待铜、钾、锂业务齐飞 藏格矿业：《不动产权证书（采矿权）》与《采矿许可证》正式落地，消除市 场对公司能否继续开展锂盐业务的担忧；一句话总结公司的核心推荐逻辑： 优质的资产、合适的时机、令人期待的合作；我们预计 2025-2027 年公司 归母净利润分别为 34.39、49.06、62.26 亿元，EPS 分别为 2.19、3.12、 3.96 元，PE 分别为 28、20、15 倍，维持"买入"评级。 【宏观】宏观经济观察系列（九）：美元指数重回上行通道？ 回顾 9 月，美元指数和美元兑人民币同步走势，呈现"一波三折" ...

分红型重疾险有望回归，建议提前布局优质银行标的 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 核心结论 金融行业周涨跌幅跟踪：1）本周非银金融（申万）指数涨跌幅为+0.50%， 跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.01pct。本周证券Ⅱ（申万）、保险Ⅱ（申万）、多元 金融指数涨跌幅分别为+0.49%、+0.73%、-0.31%。2）本周银行（申万）涨 跌幅为+0.28%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.80pct。其中，国有行、股份行、城商 行、农商行本周涨跌幅分别为+0.87%、-0.36%、+0.80%、+0.04%。 投资观点：1）保险：本周保险Ⅱ(申万)涨 0.73%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.25pct。 健康险高质量发展指导意见提出开展分红型长期健康险业务，并向医康养延 伸。非车险"报行合一"政策明确 11 月 1 日实施，规范市场竞争。9 月新增 寿险产品中分红险占比超 40%，分红险推动加速。险资加快瘦身步伐，前三 季度险企撤销分支机构 2436 家，同比增加 21.07%。险资举牌动作频频，高 股息配置逻辑凸显。我们认为，保险将是产业结构转型中金融业最具成长性 的方向，10 月份保险板块有望迎来"利 ...

行业周报 | 电力设备 特高压技术迭代升级，OpenAI 升级 API 推出更强模型 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 电力设备与新能源行业周报 20251006-20251011 核心结论 新能源发展驱动特高压技术迭代升级，电力市场化推进促使新能源有序健康发展。近期， 平高电气成功研制全球首台 800 千伏 80 千安断路器，为我国特高压发展提供关键装备支 撑。电力设备推荐思源电气、神马电力、公牛集团、国能日新、南网科技，建议关注特 变电工、协鑫能科；可控核聚变领域各国项目进度明显提升，推荐许继电气、东方电气， 建议关注合锻智能、爱科赛博。 兴安盟与金风签订绿氢制绿甲醇投资协议，看好风电制绿醇后续进展。10 月 8 日，兴安 盟与金风绿色能源化工科技举行签约会，金风将在兴安盟投资建设年产 145 万吨绿氢制 绿甲醇生产装置（含一期 25 万吨），并配套建设 2GW 风电项目和制氢工程。风电板块 推荐金风科技、大金重工、东方电缆、中天科技，建议关注运达股份、海力风电、威力 传动。 中国首个大容量钠离子储能电站扩容工程投运。近日中国首个大容量钠离子电池储能电 站——伏林钠离子电池储能电站二期扩容升 ...