Group 1: Leasing Industry Overview - The leasing industry in China is categorized into financial leasing and commercial financing leasing, with financial leasing companies being regulated by the National Financial Regulatory Administration [6] - The main business models are direct leasing and sale-leaseback, which cater to different financing needs of enterprises [6] - The industry has entered a phase of high-quality development since 2018, with stable growth in financial leasing and domestic commercial leasing, while foreign leasing companies have seen a decline [7] Group 2: Key Players and Market Dynamics - The leasing business is capital-intensive, with net interest income being the primary revenue source, and asset scale reflecting differentiated strategic layouts among companies [8] - Leading companies like Guoyin Financial Leasing and Far East Horizon maintain their positions through diversified industry layouts and national service networks, while others focus on niche markets such as aviation and microfinance [8] Group 3: Weigao Blood Purification Company Analysis - Weigao Blood Purification is a leading player in the domestic blood purification industry, with a comprehensive product matrix including dialysis machines and accessories [11] - The company has shown steady growth, with projected EPS of 1.08, 1.20, and 1.32 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - The blood purification market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 21.52% from 2023 to 2027, driven by increasing ESRD patient numbers and improving healthcare coverage [12] Group 4: Market Trends and Growth Potential - The demand for blood purification products is rising due to a rapid increase in ESRD patients and enhanced medical payment capabilities [12] - Weigao's market share in key products like blood dialysis machines and accessories is strong, with 32.5%, 24.6%, and 31.8% market shares respectively [13] - The company is expanding its business through acquisitions, such as Weigao Purui, to enhance its position in the biopharmaceutical upstream sector [13] Group 5: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for December showed a seasonal rebound, indicating synchronized expansion in production and demand, with a PMI of 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [15] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery in the service sector [21] - The construction industry saw a significant rebound, returning to expansion territory due to favorable weather and increased construction activity [21] Group 6: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a declining US dollar index and a recovering Chinese economy, positioning it as a favorable offshore market for capital [24] - The market is anticipated to experience valuation expansion driven by global liquidity and improved fundamentals in China, potentially leading to a "Davis Triple Play" scenario [29] - The outlook for the Hang Seng Technology Index remains positive, with expectations of significant growth in consumer-sensitive sectors like internet and new energy vehicles [29]

Core Conclusions - The report suggests that 2025 may be just the "prelude" to a bull market, with the Federal Reserve likely to restart interest rate cuts, leading to a rapid return of cross-border capital to China, which will help various price indices (PPI + CPI) emerge from "deflation" [1] - The report anticipates that in 2026, China will experience a period of prosperity similar to Japan in 1978, driven by the appreciation of the RMB, which will enhance cash flow statements and balance sheets in the real economy [1] Group 1: China’s Economic Outlook - China entered the current Kondratiev wave downturn in 2019, but the external constraints are gradually being lifted, allowing for a return to prosperity [1] - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025 will facilitate the recovery of cash flow statements for enterprises and households in China [1] - The anticipated quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will open up policy space for the People's Bank of China to implement similar measures, further aiding the recovery of balance sheets [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The report highlights that the U.S. is currently in a Kondratiev wave downturn, with the stock market and economy on the brink of crisis due to over-reliance on AI investment narratives [2] - It notes that the U.S. stock market is at a "crisis edge," and the potential for liquidity shocks is high as cross-border capital begins to flow out of the U.S. [2] - The report warns that if AI investment expectations fall short, it could lead to a negative narrative impacting U.S. consumption and economic stability [2] Group 3: Global Liquidity Trends - The report predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to shift towards QE, resulting in an increase in global liquidity [3] - It emphasizes that the primary goal of the Federal Reserve is to prevent liquidity shocks in the U.S. market, which will influence global capital flows [3] - The report suggests that the current tight liquidity in the U.S. is pressuring the Federal Reserve to adopt "quasi-QE" measures [6] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flows - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, cross-border capital is expected to accelerate its return to China, shifting the A-share market from a tech-focused trend to a cyclical recovery [7] - The report anticipates that the RMB exchange rate will likely break previous highs of 6.8 and 6.3, entering a long-term appreciation cycle [7] - It highlights that the RMB's appreciation will create a positive feedback loop, encouraging further capital inflows into China [7] Group 5: Commodity Supercycle - The report discusses a potential supercycle in commodities driven by de-globalization and a dollar crisis, with supply constraints likely to emerge as resource-rich countries tighten supply [9][10] - It suggests that the demand for commodities will remain resilient due to strategic stockpiling and supply chain improvements in various countries [10] - The report indicates that this supercycle could last for several years, with precious metals leading the way in revaluation [11] Group 6: Sectoral Opportunities - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including non-ferrous metals, consumer goods, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from the recovery of cash flow and balance sheets [13] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that are likely to achieve new highs, particularly in the context of the anticipated economic recovery [13] - The report suggests that the manufacturing sector will see a systematic recovery in valuations as cash flow statements improve [11]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in value exceeding 10% compared to the market benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The large model has entered a post-training and COT expansion phase, with the capabilities of the base model in 2025 likely remaining unchanged, as the GPT-5 series may still utilize the GPT-4o base model. The focus for 2025 will be on enhancing post-training and reasoning capabilities [1]. - Google's Gemini 3 model has achieved significant advancements in cross-modal dialogue, understanding, and content generation, but still faces challenges with logical coherence in complex scenarios and controllability of generated content, highlighting key areas for future technological breakthroughs [1]. - Domestic AI chip manufacturers have reached H-series performance levels, with advancements in interconnect speeds and software ecosystem capabilities. Notably, Alibaba's latest PPU chip has surpassed NVIDIA's A800 in key performance metrics, and Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 super node aims to optimize computing efficiency [2]. - The capabilities of robotic bodies have improved significantly, while the cognitive abilities of their "brains" lag behind, limiting their application to structured scenarios. The VLA model architecture has been criticized for its limitations in real-time reasoning in complex physical environments [3]. - The business models for AI applications are still under exploration, with domestic companies facing challenges in monetization despite high revenue growth rates, while international firms struggle with high computing costs and low profit margins [3].

Core Conclusions - The global AI computing competition is intensifying, with xAI planning to enhance its training computing power to 2GW, recommending companies like Dongfang Electric and Sifang Co. for AI data center support [1] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application has been accepted, indicating a thriving commercial aerospace sector, with recommendations for companies like Goldwind Technology and Maiwei [1] - The opening of JD×Yushu's first national store in Beijing marks a significant step in the commercialization of robotics, with recommended companies including UBTECH and Wuzhou New Spring [1] Group 1: Silver Price and HJT Battery - Silver and polysilicon futures have reached new highs, potentially improving the cost-effectiveness of HJT and BC battery technologies [2] - Recommended stocks in the solar storage sector include Aiko and Foster, with a focus on companies like Dongfang Risen and Dike [2] Group 2: New Energy Installation and Pricing Mechanisms - New energy installations continue to rise, supported by improved electricity pricing mechanisms and transmission channels, with projects like the Shandong Dengzhou Station receiving approval [2] - Recommended companies in the power equipment sector include Pinggao Electric and Shunhua Power, with a focus on TBEA [2] Group 3: Electric Vehicle and Consumer Electronics Demand - The introduction of a new subsidy policy for replacing old vehicles is expected to boost demand for electric vehicles and consumer electronics, with subsidies of up to 15% for certain products [3] - Recommended companies in the electric vehicle sector include CATL and EVE Energy, with a focus on companies benefiting from overseas markets [3] Group 4: Offshore Wind Power Development - Two large offshore wind power projects in China have achieved full capacity grid connection, indicating rapid development in the offshore wind industry [3] - Recommended companies in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology and Daikin Heavy Industries [3] Group 5: Energy Storage Capacity Compensation Mechanism - Gansu Province has officially released a compensation mechanism for energy storage capacity, set at 330 RMB/kW·year, which is expected to maintain high industry prosperity [4] - Recommended companies in the energy storage sector include Sungrow Power and EVE Energy [4] Group 6: Market Trends and Price Changes - The overall sales of major domestic new energy vehicle companies increased by 15.13% year-on-year in 2025, with a total delivery of 7.42 million vehicles [9] - Prices for lithium salts and nickel have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 118,500 RMB/ton, up 5.90% week-on-week [21][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - Thermoplastic Polyurethane (TPU) exhibits excellent temperature resistance, mechanical properties, ease of processing, and good biocompatibility, making it a versatile thermoplastic polymer with wide downstream applications [2][4] - The domestic TPU consumption has shown a consistent upward trend, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 720,000 tons in 2024 [2] - The largest consumer market for TPU in China is footwear, accounting for nearly 30% of the total consumption in 2024 [2] - Major domestic suppliers include Wanhua Chemical and Meirui New Materials, which have achieved domestic substitution for mid-to-low-end products [2] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - TPU is expected to be widely used in humanoid robots for flexible protective layers due to its excellent flexibility, wear resistance, and processability [2] - Leading robot manufacturers are actively exploring the development of robot skins using TPU materials, with notable collaborations such as the strategic memorandum between Fourier and BASF to explore applications in robotics [2] Investment Recommendations - The humanoid robot sector is seen as a promising area for embodied intelligence, with significant growth potential [2] - Potential suppliers of lightweight materials and components to watch include Moulded Technology, Taili Technology, Meirui New Materials, Anli Co., Huide Technology, Kaizhong Co., Niutai Ge, Mingxin Xuteng, and Yinuowei [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Weigao Blood Purification [5] Core Views - Weigao Blood Purification is a leader in the domestic blood purification field, with a comprehensive product matrix that includes blood dialysis devices, dialysis machines, and peritoneal dialysis solutions. The company has shown steady performance, with projected revenue and net profit CAGR of 8.1% and 10.9% from 2020 to 2024, respectively [1][3][5] - The blood dialysis products contribute significantly to the company's revenue, with the core product, blood dialysis器, expected to account for 51.0% of total revenue in 2024 [1][5] - The blood purification industry in China is experiencing stable growth, with a market size CAGR of 5.67% from 2019 to 2023, and an expected CAGR of 21.52% from 2023 to 2027 [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Weigao Blood Purification has established itself as a leading player in the blood purification equipment sector, continuously enhancing its product offerings. The company has developed a full product line, including blood dialysis devices, dialysis machines, and peritoneal dialysis solutions [1][19] - The company has a stable and concentrated shareholding structure, with Weigao Group holding 41.75% of the shares as of June 30, 2025 [26][29] Industry Analysis - The demand for blood dialysis treatment is increasing due to the rapid growth in the number of ESRD patients and the enhancement of residents' medical payment capabilities. The number of patients receiving blood and peritoneal dialysis in China increased from 57,900 and 9,500 in 2018 to 91,700 and 15,300 in 2023, respectively [2][3] - The blood purification market is expected to expand significantly, driven by both demand and supply factors, including the continuous improvement of product offerings by domestic manufacturers [2][3] Company Advantages - Weigao Blood Purification has a strong product and research advantage, with a market share of 32.5% in blood dialysis器, 24.6% in blood dialysis machines, and 31.8% in blood dialysis管路 as of 2023, solidifying its leading position [3][12] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with overseas revenue growth of 97.5%, 54.1%, and 64.0% in 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [12][14] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 36.88 billion, 40.34 billion, and 43.70 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 4.52 billion, 4.99 billion, and 5.51 billion yuan [14][15] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the peritoneal dialysis liquid segment, with projected revenue growth of 48.1% in 2024 [12][15]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a structural market outlook for the North Exchange, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and strong growth potential, such as robotics, commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, and smart driving [3]. Core Insights - The North Exchange A-shares trading volume reached 19.08 billion yuan on December 30, 2025, an increase of 610 million yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1450.64, down 0.40% [7][3]. - The report highlights the upcoming listing of Hengtong Light, a national-level specialized and innovative company in the optical communication sector, which is expected to attract market attention due to its strong performance and applications in AI data centers [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the market, driven by policy dividends, expectations of new capital inflows, and the supply of quality new stocks [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On December 30, 2025, the North Exchange A-shares trading volume was 19.08 billion yuan, with 287 companies listed, of which 106 rose, 6 remained flat, and 175 fell [7][16]. - The top five gainers included Tianming Technology (30.0%), Fengguang Precision (17.6%), and Chunguang Intelligent (11.0%), while the top five losers included *ST Guandao (-29.5%) and Tianli Composite (-11.7%) [16][17]. Important News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments issued a plan for the digital transformation of the automotive industry, aiming to enhance the maturity level of intelligent manufacturing capabilities by 2027 [18]. - Several eVTOL products are expected to obtain certification in 2026, indicating a burgeoning low-altitude economy market [19]. Key Company Announcements - Ainanju plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 1,471,700 shares, accounting for 1.1309% of the total share capital [22]. - Qilu Huaxin announced the lifting of restrictions on 1,352,000 shares, representing 0.97% of the total share capital, effective January 8, 2026 [20].

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 核心结论 分析师 【策略】资产的信号（20251230）：人民币升值是 2026 繁荣的契机 短期看，大量的待结汇资金和跨境资本有望随人民币升值加速结汇/回流， 强化人民币升值趋势，中长期看，中国强大的工业实力带来的出口竞争力是 人民币升值的根本动力。跨境资本回流叠加化债政策空间打开，实体现金流 量表和资产负债表有望依次修复，2026 年中国有望迎来繁荣的起点。大类 资产继续坚定看好 AH 股/国债等人民币资产，黄金保持战略配置，但对投机 交易保持谨慎，工业金属关注铜、铝、镍等品种，美股&美债或维持震荡。 【银行】寰宇通汇系列八：数字人民币将实现 M0 向 M1 的重要跨越 央行出台《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施建 设的行动方案》，宣布新一代数字人民币体系将于 2026 年 1 月 1 日正式启 动实施。该方案从机制上明确数字人民币将实现 M0 向 M1 的跨越，同时坚 持"全局一本账"的双层运营架构，未来或有望实现全国统一的管理服务体 系，对银行业和金融科技领域均产生影响。 【医药生物】和誉-B（2256.HK）近况更新：匹 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that China is entering a period of prosperity similar to Japan in 1978, driven by high industrial value added and export ratios, along with continued trade surpluses and wage growth [1][11] - The cash flow statements of the real economy in China have been damaged from 2022 to 2024 due to the Fed's interest rate hikes and a decline in real estate prices, leading to capital outflows and reduced cash flow [2][12] - The resumption of the Fed's interest rate cuts is expected to reverse the outflow of cross-border capital, thereby repairing the cash flow statements of enterprises and households [3][13] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the necessity of debt restructuring in China, drawing parallels with Japan's experience in the 1990s, where failure to act led to prolonged economic stagnation [4][14] - The potential for the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) to provide the necessary liquidity for China's central bank to undertake debt restructuring is highlighted, which could alleviate external constraints on the yuan [4][14] - The year 2026 is projected to mark the beginning of a new prosperity phase for China's economy, with a cyclical shift expected in manufacturing and consumption sectors [6][15] Group 3 - The report recommends a selection of stocks for January 2026, including Huafeng Aluminum, Zijin Mining, and TCL Technology, among others, indicating a focus on sectors poised for growth [9][10] - The automotive sector is highlighted, with Great Wall Motors and Leap Motor being noted for their strategic positioning in high-end and global markets [32][38] - In the chemical sector, Dongfang Tower is recognized for its growth potential driven by increasing potassium and phosphorus production [41][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for future returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 20% within the next 6-12 months [5][10]. Core Insights - The approval of the CSF-1R inhibitor, Beijiemai® (pimitinib), by the NMPA marks a significant milestone as it is the first systemic treatment for tenosynovial giant cell tumor (TGCT) in China and the first independently developed drug in this category [1][5]. - The clinical trial application for the KRAS G12D inhibitor, ABSK141, has also been approved, with an open-label I/II phase study aimed at evaluating its safety and efficacy in patients with advanced solid tumors carrying the KRAS G12D mutation [1]. - Preliminary data from the Phase II clinical study of the oral PD-L1 inhibitor, ABSK043, in combination with the EGFR inhibitor, furmonertinib, for treating non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) shows good safety and tolerability [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: 2025 revenue is projected at 612.1 million, 2026 at 678.8 million, and 2027 at 627.2 million, reflecting growth rates of 21.5%, 10.9%, and -7.6% respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 82.2 million in 2025, 133.8 million in 2026, and 98.4 million in 2027, with significant growth rates of 190.5% and 62.7% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.12 in 2025, 0.20 in 2026, and 0.14 in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4][9].