Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the mid-term market performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange, indicating a "structural opportunity" in the market [3][4]. Core Insights - The market showed resilience with a trading volume of 37.96 billion yuan on September 4, 2025, an increase of 5.94 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1538.98, down 0.80%, with a PE_TTM of 75.35 times [1][7]. - Among the 274 companies listed on the North Exchange, 191 saw an increase in stock prices, while 82 experienced declines. The top five gainers included Hongyu Packaging, Tianhong Lithium, Lijia Technology, Runpu Food, and Hongzhi Technology, each rising by 30% or more [1][16]. - The report highlights the strong performance of specialized and innovative companies in the new energy materials sector, as well as the resilience of consumer service companies [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On September 4, 2025, the North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 37.96 billion yuan, up 5.94 billion yuan from the previous day. The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1538.98, down 0.80%, with a PE_TTM of 75.35 times. The specialized and innovative index closed at 2666.79, down 1.16% [1][7]. Important News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation announced an action plan to boost the electronic information manufacturing industry, aiming for a revenue growth rate exceeding 5% by 2026 and a server industry scale exceeding 400 billion yuan [2][19]. - The State Council aims for the sports industry to exceed 7 trillion yuan by 2030, fostering world-class sports enterprises and events [2][20]. Key Company Announcements - Haomiao Technology announced the acquisition of a patent for a high-flow multifunctional smoke exhaust device, enhancing its competitive edge [2][21]. - Biyang Technology announced the lifting of restrictions on 45,000 shares, accounting for 0.0261% of its total share capital [2][22]. - Boshun Biological reported using 16 million yuan of idle funds to purchase structured deposit products with an expected annual yield of 1.64% [2][23].

伯特利（603596.SH）2025 年中报点评 事件：2025 年 8 月 29 日，公司发布 2025 年半年度报告：2025 年上半年公 司营业总收入为 51.64 亿元，同比增长 30.04%；归母净利润为 5.22 亿元， 同比增长 14.19%。2025 年第二季度，公司营业总收入为 25.26 亿元，同比 增长 19.66%，归母净利润为 2.52 亿元，同比增长 1.80%。 公司点评 | 伯特利 一体化底盘全面拓展，国际化业务加速布局 产品销量及新增定点显著增长，新能源布局深化。2025 年上半年，公司主 营业务收入为 50.48 亿元，同比增长 31.58%，其中智能电控产品、盘式制 动器销量同比增长分别为 43.10%、28.7%，强劲拉动公司营收提升；公司 在研项目总数为 486 项，新增定点为 282 项，较去年同期增长 43.88%，其 中新能源车型项目占比较高。 公司致力于打造一体式汽车底盘域控系统，稳步推进新技术、新产品研发。 截至 2025 年上半年底，公司在国内外现行有效专利共计 418 项，其中发明 专利 108 项；公司多个新产品研发进展顺利，其中轻量化铸铝固定式卡钳总 ...

f 总量月报 A 股后续资金面怎么看？ 总量月报第 2 期 核心结论 8 月上证指数涨 7.97% ，创业板指数上涨 24.13% 。 7 月宏观基本面边际走弱， 但股市节节攀升，可以说流动性和风险溢价对近期市场上涨解释力度更高。 如何看待后续股市节奏，以及资金面变化，包括全球资本流动与居民存款节 奏？总量月报第 2 期讨论近期宏观叙事变动并展望未来股市资金面趋势。 宏观经济：如何看待当前权益市场与基本面的背离？ 流动性是近期市场上涨的主要动因。往后看，流动性驱动的行情有望延续— —即使利率下行空间已经比较有限，但未来股市可能会和国内利率逐步"脱 钩"，更多定价资本流入与经济修复预期。此外，低利率环境下带来两个资 产再配置行为，一是美联储降息预期发酵，关税尾部风险逐步消退，同时强 化了美元走软，以及人民币稳定升值预期——美元弱势周期引发全球资本再 配置。二是 2020 以来居民积累 24 万亿元超额储蓄；若市场赚钱效应持续、 资本市场改革深化、经济预期改善，这部分资金有望进一步流向股市。 8 月国内政策遵循了 7 月中央政治局会议"落实落细"的精神。行业"反内 卷"政策加快落地的同时，民生与消费、城市治理、地 ...

证券研究报告 金属包装：走向行业自律，盈利有望改善 ——行业历史复盘&与水泥行业的比较研究 西部证券研发中心 2025年9月5日 分析师|李华丰 S0800521070003 lihuafeng@research.xbmail.com.cn 分析师|谭 鹭 S0800524070005 tanlu@research.xbmail.com.cn 25Q1行业处于盈利底部，行业整合落地、竞争格局优化有望带动盈利逐步修复。25年1月，奥瑞金并购中粮 落地，行业集中度从CR4=75%提高至CR3=75%，龙头奥瑞金收购中粮后份额接近40%。并购落地后头部企 业目标一致以利润为经营导向，并计划搬迁部分国内产线至海外，行业扩产高峰期基本结束，未来几年国内 供需有望持续好转，带动盈利逐步改善。 参考行业上一轮整合后19年毛利率修复至10%以上、海外龙头毛利率20%、经营利润率12%-13%，当前企 业盈利能力仍有较大提升空间。我国二片罐行业上一轮整合主要发生在17-19年，整合后18-19年行业盈利持 续修复，单价、单位毛利均提升，19年宝钢包装、奥瑞金、中粮包装二片罐毛利率分别达到13%、10%、 17%，为近几年高点。 ...

Group 1 - Foreign capital is returning to China, with a significant shift observed since late July 2023, marking a crucial signal for foreign investment in A-shares [2][12] - The net outflow of active foreign capital from A-shares reached approximately 200 billion RMB before the reversal began [2][12] - Historical highs in net inflows from passive foreign capital and record trading volumes in northbound funds indicate a strong enthusiasm for Chinese assets [2][12][13] Group 2 - The return of foreign capital is driven by four key factors: RMB appreciation, overseas liquidity easing, A-share profitability, and fundamental recovery [3][15] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened the USD and US Treasury yields, contributing to RMB appreciation and foreign capital inflow [3][15] - A-share performance has outpaced global markets since late July, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese equities [3][15] Group 3 - The trend of foreign capital returning to China is expected to continue, as the country enters a mature industrialization phase, which will accelerate RMB appreciation [4][21] - Historical parallels with the US and Japan during their industrialization periods suggest that net export expansion will drive long-term currency appreciation [4][21] - The previous three years of Fed rate hikes have hindered this process, but the current shift to a rate-cutting cycle is expected to facilitate foreign capital allocation to A-shares [4][21] Group 4 - Foreign capital is significantly underweight in A-shares, with an estimated potential allocation space exceeding 1 trillion RMB [5][28] - As of the end of 2024, A-shares account for 3.4% of the MSCI Global Equity Index, while their representation in international investment portfolios is only 2.3%, indicating a 1.1% underweight [5][28] - If foreign capital were to align its allocation with A-share weights in the MSCI index, it could result in an influx of approximately 1.2 trillion RMB [5][28] Group 5 - Foreign investors have a long-standing preference for high ROE stocks, which is expected to influence market trends [6][31] - Industries such as food and beverage, household appliances, agriculture, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials are likely to attract foreign interest due to their high ROE and favorable valuations [6][31] - Since August, foreign capital has notably flowed into sectors including banking, insurance, manufacturing, materials, automotive, pharmaceuticals, software, and semiconductors [6][38]

4 行业专题报告 | 计算机 计算机行业 2025 年中报总结 证券研究报告 2025 年 09 月 05 日 整体法下 25H1 计算机行业营收增长加速，利润端有所修复；营收中位数基 本持平。整体法下，2025 年上半年，计算机行业总营收 5503.77 亿元，同 比+13.18%；归母净利润 48.72 亿元，同比+92.51%；扣非后归母净利润 2.43 亿元，回归正值。以中位数来看，2025 年上半年，计算机行业营收中位数 为 3.36 亿元，同比-0.16%；归母净利润中位数 0.03 亿元，同比-26.01%； 扣非后归母净利润中位数为-0.04 亿元，亏损同比扩大 84.61%。 2025H1 计算机行业毛利率有所承压，而销售费用、研发费用及管理费用三 费合计费用率也有所下降，效益化经营持续深化。资产及信用减值损失同比 减少，投资收益及公允价值变动损益同比增加，拉动利润增长。2025H1， 计算机行业毛利率为 20.87%（同比-2.67pct），毛利率中位数为 39.10%（同 比-3.49pct），盈利能力有所下滑。费用率方面，整体法下，销售费用同比 +0.15%，销售费用率为 6.63%（ ...

2025 年 09 月 05 日 核心结论 分析师 【基金】行业主题基金专题研究（五）-上篇：周期主题基金研究框架及产 品优选 晨会纪要 证券研究报告 本文构建主动型周期主题基金池。根据主动权益基金对周期行业的配置，细 分为均衡型周期基金、专注单一赛道型周期基金。定量定性结合筛选出优质 基金，建议关注：大成产业趋势、汇丰晋信中小盘、前海开源沪港深核心资 源等。 【证券Ⅱ】东方破晓系列报告三：流动性视角看券商股后续空间：行至中途 1、当前各类资金接力入市，保险增配股票比例环比提升，公募发行/净申购 开始回暖，居民"存款搬家"或刚刚开始。2、A 股流动性指数快速提升时 点与券商涨幅中位数高度重合。3、投资建议：券商 2025 中报业绩表现整 体亮眼，预计 2025 年行业将实现 48%左右盈利增速。个股方面，我们认为 低估低配高 ROE 的头部券商和具有基本面变化的券商配置价值更优。 【国防军工】智明达（688636.SH）首次覆盖报告：信息化浪潮再澎湃，军 用嵌入式龙头抢滩增量市场 智明达是国内重点领域嵌入式计算机行业的领先企业，基于客户需求为国内 重点领域客户提供嵌入式计算机相关的定制方案、产品与服务。我们预 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - Various types of funds are entering the market, with insurance increasing stock allocation and public fund issuance/net subscriptions showing signs of recovery. The trend of residents "moving deposits" may have just begun [1][14] - The A-share liquidity index has shown a rapid increase, correlating highly with the median rise of brokerage stocks. Historical data indicates that significant increases in the liquidity index often precede or coincide with strong performance in brokerage stocks [2][41] - The brokerage industry is expected to achieve a profit growth rate of approximately 48% in the first half of 2025, with specific recommendations for undervalued and high ROE brokerage firms [3][48] Summary by Sections Current Fund Inflows - Since September 24, 2024, regulatory policies have encouraged various funds to enter the market, particularly focusing on long-term capital [14][15] - Insurance funds have shown stable premium growth, with stock allocation increasing to 8.5% as of Q2 2025, up 1.7 percentage points from Q2 2024 [21][1] - Public funds are experiencing a recovery in both issuance and net subscriptions, with a notable increase in active equity fund subscriptions [23][1] - A new cycle of residents "moving deposits" has begun, with the total market capitalization to resident deposits ratio at a low of 0.59, indicating potential for further inflows [26][1] Market Liquidity and Brokerage Stocks - The average daily trading volume and margin financing balance have reached historically high levels, indicating improved market liquidity [34][41] - The maximum turnover rate of the Wind All A index has historically aligned with peaks in brokerage stock performance, suggesting a potential indicator for market tops [35][41] - The A-share liquidity index has shown significant increases during previous bullish phases, with a 74% rise in brokerage stocks since the market transition on July 10, 2024 [2][41] Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector is projected to see a profit growth of around 48% in 2025, with specific recommendations for leading brokerage firms that are undervalued and have high ROE [3][48] - The report suggests focusing on firms like Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others that are expected to benefit from market conditions and potential mergers [3][48] - The report highlights a calendar effect where brokerage stocks typically exhibit excess returns from July to November, influenced by policy discussions and financial performance reviews [52][41]

基金研究专题报告 周期主题基金研究框架及产品优选 行业主题基金专题研究（五）-上篇 核心结论 本文构建主动型周期主题基金池。根据主动权益基金对周期行业的配置，细 分为均衡型周期基金、专注单一赛道型周期基金。定量定性结合筛选出优质 基金，建议关注：大成产业趋势、汇丰晋信中小盘、前海开源沪港深核心资 源等。 【主要逻辑】 主要逻辑一：根据历史配置情况，对周期主题基金进行分类和标签划分 基于基金对周期细分赛道的历史配置情况，划分为均衡型周期基金、专注单一赛 道的周期基金。根据是否投港股、换手率等对均衡型周期基金进行标签划分。 主要逻辑二：定量定性优选均衡型周期基金、专注单一赛道周期基金 1、均衡型的周期基金中，优选出 5 只基金：大成产业趋势、汇丰晋信中小 盘、博时成长精选、嘉实周期优选、中欧融恒平衡。 2、专注单一赛道的周期基金中，优选出 5 只基金：工银红利优享、华宝资 源优选、前海开源沪港深核心资源、创金合信资源主题、景顺长城支柱产业。 主要逻辑三：深度分析优选周期主题基金 1、行业配置上，大成产业趋势、汇丰晋信中小盘主要在有色金属、基础化 工；博时成长精选、中欧融恒平衡主要在有色金属、石油石化；嘉实周期优 ...

Macro Insights - The report suggests that the stock and bond markets are likely to gradually "decouple," with the market pricing in profit recovery and capital inflow expectations [1][7] - There is a reallocation logic in assets due to anticipated Fed rate cuts, leading to a weaker dollar cycle and global capital reallocation [1][7] - Short-term sentiment has not reached extreme levels, but there is a focus on style rebalancing driven by micro trading congestion, with narratives shifting towards consumption, non-ferrous metals, and innovative industries [1][8] Defense and Aerospace - The report on Xirui (2507.HK) indicates that the company is gradually expanding its production capacity and service network, with expected net profits of $170 million, $210 million, and $260 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 14.0, 11.2, and 9.2 [2][10] - The demand for private jets is increasing, driven by a growing high-net-worth population and improved flight infrastructure, benefiting leading companies like Xirui [9] Electronics - Shengke Communication (688702.SZ) is expected to achieve revenues of 1.353 billion, 1.776 billion, and 2.195 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.1%, 31.3%, and 23.6% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3][13] - The company is focusing on high-end switch chip products to meet the demands of large-scale data centers and cloud services [12] Computer Industry - Ruijun Power (301236.SZ) is projected to achieve revenues of 365 billion, 424 billion, and 493 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 3.84 billion, 5.18 billion, and 7.81 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4][16] - The company is deepening its soft-hard integration strategy, with significant growth in revenue from computing products and smart electronics [15][17] Power Equipment - Guoxuan High-Tech (002074.SZ) reported a revenue of 19.394 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.48%, with net profits of 367 million yuan, up 35.22% [22][24] - The company is expanding its international presence and has successfully launched its first experimental line for solid-state batteries, enhancing its competitive edge [24] Automotive - Li Auto (02015.HK) achieved a revenue of 30.25 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, maintaining a stable gross margin of 20.1% [30][32] - The company is expanding its sales and service network, with plans to increase the number of supercharging stations significantly [31][32] - The report on Seris (601127.SH) indicates a revenue of 62.402 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net profit growth of 81.03%, driven by strong sales of its high-end models [38][39] Tire Manufacturing - Linglong Tire (601966.SH) reported a revenue of 11.812 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.80%, despite a decline in net profit [41][42] - The company is expanding its global footprint with a new production base in Brazil, aiming to enhance its international competitiveness [42][43]