人民币加速升值，3 月如何布局 西部研究月度金股报告系列（2026 年 3 月） 核心结论 1、2026 中国有望回归 2019 "价值投资元年" （1）2018 年中国正式步入工业化成熟期，制造业强劲的对外出口能力，赚取大 量稳定的现金流。由此 A 股孕育出了 2019-22 年"价值投资"的土壤：大量拥 有稳定现金流的消费（茅指数）和制造（宁组合）得到系统性重估。 （2）《人民币升值是 2026 繁荣的契机》提示：美联储降息后人民币回归长 期升值趋势，正驱动跨境资本加速回流。中国的制造和消费行业将再次拥有 大量稳定的现金流，也将重获"价值投资者"的青睐。 2、巴菲特"价值投资"的基础，是稳定现金流的"大 DCF 资产" 1945 年开始美国正式进入工业化成熟期，制造业强劲的对外出口能力，赚取大 量稳定的现金流。由此美股孕育出了巴菲特"价值投资"的土壤：大量拥有稳定 现金流且 CAPEX 较低的"大 DCF 资产"。 策略月报 巴菲特"价值投资"的理念是以合理价格买入现金流充沛的优质公司。上世 纪 60 年代以来，巴菲特重仓的美国运通/华盛顿邮报/可口可乐/苹果等公司， 都是现金流充裕且 CAPEX 较低的 ...

金工量化周报 稀有金属精选指数：本周机构参与水平增速显著 热门概念与行业机构参与情况跟踪（2026.02.24-2026.02.27） 核心结论 热门概念机构参与情况跟踪： 本周（2026.02.24-2026.02.27，下同）， 半导体设备指数、ASIC 芯片指数和高送转预期指数，机构参与占比靠前， 且均达到近 20 周最高位。 稀有金属精选指数、航运精选指数、光伏逆变器指数，机构参与增速最高； 而黄金珠宝指数、短剧游戏指数与房地产精选指数，机构参与降幅靠前。 雅江水电站指数、操作系统指数和房地产精选指数，个人-机构参与分歧程度 位于前列。 行业机构参与情况跟踪： 分析师 冯佳睿 S0800524040008 13564917688 fengjiarui@research.xbmail.com.cn 联系人 张逸飞 18916386581 本周， 电子、医药和机械，机构参与占比靠前；其中，电子和医药，机构参与占比 达到近 20 周最高位。 钢铁、综合金融、交通运输，机构参与增速最高；而传媒、房地产与消费者 服务，机构参与降幅靠前。 煤炭、建材和房地产，个人-机构参与分歧程度位于前列。 风险提示：本报告是根 ...

策略周报 A 股估值扩张，钢铁行业领涨 A 股 TTM&全动态估值全景扫描（20260228） 核心结论 本周 A 股总体估值扩张，钢铁行业领涨。今年钢铁冬储累库力度较弱，后续 库存压力较小，节后开工钢铁需求季节性提升，叠加 PPI 回升带来的价格回 升预期较强，而黑色板块位置相对较低，钢铁行业迎来补涨。从估值角度， 当前钢铁行业全动态估值处于历史 45.3%分位数，后续仍存在估值提升空 间。 主板和创业板 PE 扩张，科创板 PE 收缩。算力基建剔除运营商/资源类的相 对估值收缩。算力基建剔除运营商/资源类的相对 PE（TTM）从上周的 3.89 倍降至本周的 3.58 倍，相对 PB（LF）从上周的 4.12 倍降至本周的 3.97 倍。 观察行业绝对估值与相对估值的历史分位数—— （1）从静态的 PE（TTM）角度，大类行业中，可选消费、中游制造、周期 类、大消费、中游材料绝对估值和相对估值均高于历史中位数，其中可选消 费、中游制造绝对估值和相对估值均高于历史 90 分位数，必需消费、服务 业、金融服务相对估值低于历史 10 分位数。 （2）从 PB（LF）角度，大类行业中，大类行业中，资源类、周期类、 ...

AI Agent 从概念走向落地，OpenClaw 引爆自主执行需求， Tokens 从"对 话消耗"走向"任务消耗"，调用量高速增长。此前，问答式 AI 一轮对话消 耗几百到几千 Token，用户不再提问，Token 就不会再消耗。Agent 模式下， AI 做任务时会持续在后台跑流程。拿 OpenClaw 举例，其 Token 消耗粗略 看有三种模式：1）多轮自我修正。一次编程任务可能经历"写代码→运行 →报错→改→再跑"几十个回合，每个回合都是一次完整的模型调用。2） 上下文无限膨胀。为了让 Agent"记住"之前的操作，每次调用都要携带完 整对话历史。有用户实测，一个活跃会话的上下文很快膨胀到 23 万 Token 以上。3）工具链级联。Agent 处理一个"帮我整理邮件并创建待办"的任 务，可能触发 5-10 次 API 调用，每次都背着完整上下文。较直观的数字是： 7×24 小时跑 OpenClaw，全量使用 Claude API，月成本在 800 到 1500 美 元之间。再看全球头部 AI 模型 API 聚合平台 OpenRouter 数据：2 月 9 日当 周，平台处理了 13 万亿 Tok ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 02 月 27 日 核心结论 分析师 【北交所】北交所日报——20260225：温和上涨，关注金三银四和两会政 策预期 zhouying@research.xbmail.com.cn 国内市场主要指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,146.63 | -0.01 | | 深证成指 | 14,503.79 | 0.19 | | 沪深 300 | 4,726.87 | -0.19 | | 上证 180 | 10,389.00 | -0.16 | | 中小板指 | 8,841.13 | 0.61 | | 创业板指 | 3,344.98 | -0.29 | 资料来源：聚源 主要海外市场指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 49,499.20 | 0.03 | | 标普 500 | 6,908.86 | -0.54 | | 纳斯达克 | 22,878.38 | -1.18 | 资料来源：聚源 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 ...

行业日报 | 北交所 温和上涨，关注金三银四和两会政策预期 北交所日报——20260225 核心结论 行情回顾：1）指数层面：2 月 25 日北证 A 股成交金额达 186.56 亿元，较 上一交易日增加 22.77 亿元，北证 50 指数收盘价为 1,547.201，上涨 0.77%， PE_TTM 为 65.09 倍。北证专精特新指数收盘价为 2,597.61，上涨 1.22%。 2）个股层面：当日北交所 294 家公司中 208 家上涨，6 家平盘，80 家下跌。 其中涨幅前五的个股分别为：同辉信息（10.3%）、安达科技（8.2%）、天 力复合（6.3%）、纳科诺尔（6.3%）、恒合股份（6.1%）；跌幅前五的个 股分别为：连城数控（-7.1%）、科力股份（-5.9%）、视声智能（-3.5%）、 蘅东光（-3.5%）、戈碧迦（-3.3%）。 新闻汇总：1）数据中心没钱、定制芯片落后："新秀"OpenAI 正努力追 赶老牌巨头：OpenAI 的星际之门项目因资金问题受挫，导致其战略重心转 向掌控数据中心内部资源而非拥有实体资产；此外，OpenAI 在定制芯片问 题上落后于其他科技巨头，其于 2025 年 ...

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-end equipment and new materials that align with national industrial upgrading trends, while monitoring market liquidity and the impact of main board hot spots on the capital flow of the Beijing Stock Exchange [1][5]. Domestic Market Indices - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,147.23, up by 0.72% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,475.87, up by 1.29% - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,735.89, up by 0.60% - The Shanghai 180 Index closed at 10,405.99, up by 0.53% - The SME Index closed at 8,787.92, up by 1.12% - The ChiNext Index closed at 3,354.82, up by 1.41% [2]. Industry Review - On February 24, the trading volume of the Beijing Stock Exchange A-shares reached 16.379 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.057 billion yuan from the previous trading day - The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 1,535.432, up by 0.37%, with a PE_TTM of 64.51 times - The specialized and innovative index closed at 2,566.43, up by 0.36% - Among 294 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, 242 saw their stock prices rise, 4 remained flat, and 48 experienced declines [3]. News Summary - The report highlights a potential price increase in MLCCs, with major manufacturers like Murata and Samsung Electronics considering double-digit price hikes due to rising demand from AI infrastructure investments - The Ministry of Commerce has placed 20 Japanese entities under export control to safeguard national security [4]. Investment Recommendations - The market is currently driven by "resource price increases" and "technology growth," with cyclical sectors like oil, petrochemicals, and precious metals leading the gains - Companies in the phosphorus chemical and industrial metal supply chains on the Beijing Stock Exchange may benefit from price elasticity - The technology sector shows divergence, with AI computing hardware performing well ahead of the NVIDIA GTC conference, while AI applications face challenges post-Spring Festival - The report suggests focusing on high-end equipment and new materials that align with national industrial upgrading, while keeping an eye on market liquidity and the rotation of main board hot spots affecting capital flow to the Beijing Stock Exchange [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [26]. Core Insights - The market focus is on "resource price increases" and "technology growth," with cyclical sectors like oil, petrochemicals, and precious metals leading the gains due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal agricultural policies [3][19]. - The North Exchange is expected to benefit from new productivity policies and price elasticity in resource commodities, particularly in high-end equipment and new materials that align with national industrial upgrade directions [3][19]. - The report highlights a significant increase in MLCC prices, with major manufacturers like Murata and Samsung planning double-digit price hikes due to rising demand from AI infrastructure investments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On February 24, the North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 16.379 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.057 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1,535.432, up 0.37% [8][13]. - Among 294 companies listed on the North Exchange, 242 saw their stock prices rise, 4 remained flat, and 48 experienced declines [15][16]. Key Company Announcements - Mingyang Technology reported a revenue of 389.60 million yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 82.14 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.81% [19]. - Yisheng Precision announced a revenue of 35.19 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.50%, with a net profit of 5.99 million yuan, up 10.70% [20][21]. - The report also mentions other companies like Iron Big Technology and Digital Human, which reported significant revenue growth due to market expansion and project completions [22][23].

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the importance of using "order-cancellation time difference" to identify institutional trading behavior, suggesting that this method is more effective than relying solely on order amounts in the current algorithmic trading environment [2][6][10] - The report highlights the strong performance of the Buy Algorithm Trading Cancellation Ratio (BABR) factor, which has shown a RankIC of 0.058 and an ICIR close to 0.55, indicating its effectiveness in stock selection [10][11] - The report indicates that the BABR factor can capture the behavior and holdings of public funds, providing a high-frequency tracking method for institutional behavior [10][11] Group 2: Company Analysis - Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) - Chow Tai Fook is transitioning from a traditional gold and jewelry retailer to a luxury brand centered around "Fuk Culture," with a focus on high-margin priced jewelry, which has increased its retail value share from 27.4% to 31.8% in FY26 [12][14] - The company has optimized its channel strategy by closing low-efficiency stores and opening high-quality ones, resulting in a significant increase in sales per new store, with average monthly sales reaching 1.3 to 1.4 million HKD [13][14] - Chow Tai Fook's operating profit margin reached a five-year high in the first half of FY26, with expectations for continued improvement in gross margin due to pricing strategies and product price increases [14] Group 3: Industry Insights - The report notes that the industry is undergoing a regulatory shake-up, which may benefit established brands like Chow Tai Fook, allowing them to expand their advantages amid increasing market concentration [14] - The report forecasts Chow Tai Fook's net profit for FY2026-2028 to be 83.58, 98.41, and 108.56 billion HKD, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.2, 13.7, and 12.5, respectively, leading to an upgraded rating to "Buy" [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Travel increased significantly during the Spring Festival in 2026, with 5.5 billion cross - regional trips during the first 21 days of the Spring Festival travel rush, a 6% year - on - year increase. The daily flow exceeded 300 million after February 18, and approached 400 million on February 22 [1][11]. - Policies such as "Happy Shopping during the Spring Festival" drove strong consumption. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the Spring Festival holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025. The passenger flow and turnover of 78 key pedestrian streets (business districts) monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 4.5% and 4.8% respectively in the first three days of the holiday [1][14]. - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA tariffs illegal, but Trump ordered a 15% tariff on all imported goods. The U.S. Q4 GDP growth rate was only 1.4%, and the core PCE was 3%, higher than the previous value [1][19]. - During the Spring Festival, most major global assets rose. Crude oil and natural gas in commodities increased significantly, and the stock markets in South Korea, the Eurozone, and the UK rose by 5.5%, 2.4%, and 2.3% respectively, while the Hong Kong stock market underperformed, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 2.8% [2][19]. - The capital market remained stable, and the bond market may fluctuate. The 10Y Treasury bond rate broke below 1.8% before the holiday, and the further downward space of interest rates is limited. It is recommended to focus on coupon strategies and opportunities for narrowing spreads [2][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - Before the holiday, institutional willingness to hold bonds increased, and the central bank's net injection led to a decline in bond yields. The 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields decreased by 2bp and 0.5bp respectively. The bond market showed different trends on different days of the week [10]. - The Spring Festival travel rush had a large passenger flow, and consumption was strong. Movie box office and real - estate sales had different performances. Overseas, the U.S. economy slowed down, and inflation remained high [11][14][19]. - The capital market remained stable, and the bond market may fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to policy expectations during the Two Sessions, external tariff changes, and the equity market [20]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Capital Market - The central bank's net injection before the holiday was 139.69 billion yuan. After the holiday, the maturity volume of reverse repurchase was larger. The capital interest rate decreased, and the 3M certificate of deposit issuance rate and FR007 - 1Y swap rate showed different trends [28][29]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Bond yields declined before the holiday. Except for the 3m Treasury bond, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds decreased. Most of the term spreads of Treasury bonds widened [38]. - The spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the negative spread of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened. The spread between the second - active and active 30Y Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly [40]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - As of February 14, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds decreased, the 50Y - 30Y and 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spreads widened, the inter - bank leverage ratio decreased to 107.3%, the exchange leverage ratio increased to 123.5%, the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased, and the median duration of interest - rate bond funds increased slightly. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds widened [45]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - The net financing of interest - rate bonds increased before the holiday. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - financial bonds increased. The issuance scale of Treasury bonds will increase in the last week of February, and that of local bonds will decrease [61][64][65]. - The inter - bank certificate of deposit changed from net financing to net repayment before the holiday, and the average issuance rate decreased slightly [66]. 3.3 Economic Data - The Spring Festival month - shift affected the CPI decline, and the PPI improved year - on - year. The financial data in January had a stable start [70]. - Since February, movie consumption was weaker than the seasonal level, and the freight rate index improved marginally. Real - estate transactions were weak, and industrial production weakened marginally [71]. - Recent infrastructure and price high - frequency data showed that production indicators decreased month - on - month, and most price indicators weakened [75]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The U.S. core PCE returned to 3%, and the economic growth rate slowed down. The Fed had different views on future policies [80]. - The U.S. bond market declined, and emerging markets had more declines than increases. The spread between Chinese and U.S. 10Y Treasury bonds narrowed [81][83]. 3.5 Major Assets - The CSI 300 index rose slightly before the holiday. Shanghai gold rose, and the Nanhua crude oil index adjusted. The performance of major assets was: CSI 1000 > Shanghai gold > Convertible bonds > CSI 300 > Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds > China bonds > Shanghai copper > Rebar > U.S. dollar > Live pigs > Crude oil [87]. 3.6 Bond Market Calendar - There are reverse repurchase maturities, MLF maturities, and government bond issuances from February 24 to February 28. There are also important economic data releases and corporate earnings calls during this period [92].