Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huafon Chemical (002064 SZ) [2][4] Core Views - Huafon Chemical's Q2 2024 profitability showed sequential improvement, with net profit increasing by 22% QoQ to 835 million yuan [1] - The company's integrated advantages are being strengthened through capacity expansion projects [2] - Despite weak spandex industry conditions in H1 2024, Huafon achieved revenue growth of 9% YoY to 13 744 billion yuan and net profit growth of 12% YoY to 1 518 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance H1 2024 Results - Revenue: 13 744 billion yuan (+9% YoY) [1] - Net profit: 1 518 billion yuan (+12% YoY) [1] - Gross margin: 16 52% (-0 97pct YoY) [1] - Net margin: 11 06% (+0 29pct YoY) [1] Q2 2024 Highlights - Revenue: 7 087 billion yuan (+10% YoY, +6% QoQ) [1] - Net profit: 835 million yuan (+15% YoY, +22% QoQ) [1] - Gross margin: 16 88% (+0 76pct QoQ) [1] - Net margin: 11 83% (+1 58pct QoQ) [1] Business Segments - Chemical fiber: 4 654 billion yuan revenue (-0 11% YoY), 14 97% gross margin (-0 71pct YoY) [1] - Chemical new materials: 3 036 billion yuan revenue (-0 11% YoY), 21 78% gross margin (-3 52pct YoY) [1] - Basic chemical products: 5 261 billion yuan revenue (+42 38% YoY), 15 45% gross margin (-1 87pct YoY) [1] Industry Conditions - Spandex industry faced oversupply with 105 000 tons/year new capacity added in H1 2024 [1] - Average spandex price: 27 994 yuan/ton (-16% YoY) [1] - PTMEG (spandex raw material) average price: 15 611 yuan/ton (-21% YoY) [1] - Adipic acid average price: 9 696 yuan/ton (-1% YoY) [1] Capacity Expansion - 1 15 million tons/year adipic acid expansion project (Phase VI) reached 92 06% of budget [2] - 300 000 tons/year differentiated spandex project reached 39 83% of budget [2] - PTMEG capacity adjustment: increased from 120 000 tons/year to 240 000 tons/year [2] Financial Projections 2024-2026 Estimates - Revenue: 29 255/33 093/35 506 billion yuan [3] - Net profit: 3 107/3 666/4 003 billion yuan [3] - EPS: 0 63/0 74/0 81 yuan [3] - PE ratio: 11 8/10 0/9 2x [3] Key Ratios - ROE: 11 7%/12 3%/11 9% [5] - Gross margin: 17 2%/17 7%/17 7% [5] - Net margin: 10 6%/11 1%/11 3% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4][7]. Core Views - The company has introduced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2024, aiming to double its performance targets over three years, with a focus on key performance indicators such as non-recurring net profit growth and return on equity [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.25 billion, RMB 1.50 billion, and RMB 1.67 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.5, 17.1, and 15.3 times [2][3]. Summary by Sections Incentive Plan - The company plans to repurchase 4-8 million shares, accounting for 0.37%-0.75% of the total share capital, with a budget of up to RMB 278 million at a maximum price of RMB 34.8 per share [1]. - The incentive plan targets 148 high-level and middle management personnel, with 152,300 shares reserved for future grants [1]. Performance Targets - The performance assessment for the incentive plan includes three phases with specific targets: - Non-recurring return on equity (ROE) minimums of 5.8%, 7.0%, and 8.0% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively - Non-recurring net profit growth rates of 30%, 65%, and 100% - A minimum of 1,200 new hotel openings each year [1][2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to have operating revenues of RMB 16.85 billion, RMB 18.26 billion, and RMB 19.26 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 15.0%, 8.4%, and 5.5% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 1.25 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 24.6% compared to the previous year [3].

行业周报 | 美容护理 即将进入中报密集披露期，关注业绩超预期机会 美容护理行业周报（2024/08/05-08/09） 核心结论 本周行情回顾：本周美容护理行业上涨 0.62%，相对沪深 300 指数收益 2.18pcts。涨幅前五的公司为名臣健康（14.86%）、巨子生物（10.64%）、 科笛-B（7.50%）、丸美股份（5.52%）、百亚股份（5.28%）。 重要公告及新闻：1）百亚股份发布 2024 年半年度报告，24H1 收入 15.32 亿元/+61.31%，归母净利润 1.80 亿元/+36.41%。2）欧莱雅收购高德美集 团 10%股份。3）资生堂发布 24H1 业绩，上半年销售额为 249 亿元/+2.9%， 营业利润亏损 1.32 亿元。4）诺和诺德 24H1 收入 193.66 亿美元/+25%，肥 胖症业务销售额增长 37%。5）欧莱雅发布 24H1 业绩，24H1 公司销售额/ 营业利润分别同比+7.5%/+8%，专业美发产品部、大众化妆品部、高档化妆 品部以及皮肤科学美容部营收分别同比+5.7%/8.9%/2.3%/16.4%。6）雅戈 尔投资林清轩。7）圣诺医药与 Gore R ...

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth for the second half of 2024 is projected to be around 5%, requiring a quarterly annualized growth rate of approximately 5.6% to meet the annual target[2][21]. - Inflation is expected to experience a mild recovery, with CPI growth continuing to rise while PPI remains negative[2][12]. Real Estate Market Adjustment - The adjustment in the real estate cycle is linked to a shift from core to non-core assets, with significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the housing market[3][13]. - The transition of real estate from a core asset to a non-core asset is still ongoing, impacting overall economic growth[3][13]. Asset Allocation Insights - A-share markets are anticipated to present structural opportunities, particularly in light of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[5][13]. - The short-term outlook for Chinese bonds should not underestimate the central bank's resolve, while the long-term outlook will depend on fundamental economic conditions[5][13]. - Commodity prices, particularly the copper-gold ratio, are expected to remain volatile, with both metals yet to fully realize their price increases[5][13]. Fiscal Policy and Government Revenue - Fiscal revenue has faced pressure, with general public budget revenue declining by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, falling short of the budgeted growth rate of 3.3%[23][24]. - The government may need to consider additional budget issuance or new bonds if revenue continues to lag, as fiscal spending must increase to stabilize domestic demand[24][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 11.64 [2][4] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 8.419 billion in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 738 million, a year-on-year increase of 7% [1] - In 24Q2, the company achieved revenue of 5.084 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 394 million, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - The company's compound fertilizer sales volume increased by 12.38% year-on-year in 24H1, with ordinary compound fertilizer sales up 10.16% and new compound fertilizer sales up 19.45% [1] - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin in 24H1 were 16.06% and 8.79%, respectively, up 1.17 and 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company has formed an integrated industrial chain advantage, with an annual production capacity of 9.83 million tons of high-concentration phosphate compound fertilizers, 900,000 tons of phosphate rock, and 50,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate [1] Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 24-26 to be 1.392 billion, 1.594 billion, and 1.907 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5x, 9.2x, and 7.7x [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 6.6%, 4.5%, and 5.1% in 24-26, respectively [2] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 15.4%, 14.5%, and 19.7% in 24-26, respectively [2] Industry Outlook - The compound fertilizer industry is expected to recover in 24H1, with the company's volume and profit expected to rebound [1] - The company's upstream phosphate rock layout is expected to further expand, enhancing its integrated industrial chain advantage [1]

嗯 行业周报 | 基础化工 巴斯夫暂停维 A 等产品交付，玲珑、中策推进海外布局 化工行业周观点（20240805-20240811） 证券研究报告 2024 年 08 月 11 日 核心结论 市场回顾：本周，基础化工指数下跌 1.28%，基础化工指数同期跑赢大盘 0.28pct。石油石化指数下跌 0.52%，石油石化指数同期跑赢大盘 1.04pct。 申万基础化工板块个股，亚士创能(+15.17%)、名臣健康(+14.86%)、辉隆股 份(+13.42%)位列涨幅前三，三级子板块涨幅前三：民爆用品(+3.72%)、复 合肥(+2.48%)、聚氨酯(+1.91%)。原油价格有所回升。我们重点跟踪的 62 种化工产品中，本周有 15/33 种产品价格周环比上涨/下跌。 氟化工：本周 R32、R125 价差下降，R134a 价差上涨。截至 8 月 9 日，R32、 R125、R134a 价格分别为 36500、31000、32000 元/吨，价差分别为 24151、 15462、17744 元/吨，环比上月同期价差分别+1289.3、-3107.6、+2541.1 元/吨。推荐巨化、永和，建议关注三美、东岳、昊华 ...

公司点评 | 东方财富 自营贡献业绩支撑，经纪业务市占率稳中有升 东方财富（300059.SZ）2024 年半年报业绩点评 事件：东方财富发布 2024 年中报。2024H1 公司分别实现营收/归母净利润 49.45/40.56 亿元，分别同比-14.00%/-4.00%。2024Q2 单季度分别实现营 收/归母净利润 24.89/21.02 亿元，分别同比-15%/-4%。 基金业务收入受市场景气影响下滑，Q2 环比改善。分业务来看，公司基金 业务/经纪业务/信用业务收入占比分别为 49%/20%/31%。24H1 公司实现基 金业务收入 15.23 亿元，yoy-29%，Q2 单季度实现收入 7.71 亿元，环比实 现收入增长。24H1 股票+混合型新发基金份额合计 1071 亿份，同比下降 35%，权益类新发基金疲软拖累公司基金业务表现。24H1 公司基金销售额 为 8513.82 亿元，其中非货币型基金销售额为 4996.64 亿元，分别同比 +4.4%/-0.9%。 经纪业务市占率稳中有升，自营高增带来业绩韧性。1）经纪：24H1，公司 实现手续费及佣金净收入（证券经纪业务为主）23.95 亿元，y ...

晨会纪要 ⚫ 核心结论 分析师 【量化】指数化配置系列研究（1）：另类 ETF 交易策略：日内动量 本文基于指数的日内动量效应，设计了一个简洁而明确的 ETF 交易策略， 并在上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 这 4 个 ETF 上，取得了较 好的业绩表现。 【电力设备】风电行业 2024 年中期策略报告：全球海风装机需求共振，陆 风风机具备出口机会 国内海风开工在即，装机量有望高增。海外海上风电建设加速，海风多环节 具备出口机会。亚非拉区域具备陆风风机出口机会，国内陆上风电景气度提 升。综合三条选股主线来看，我们建议关注海缆、桩基、定转子、风机环节 未来投资机会。海缆环节推荐东方电缆、中天科技，建议关注亨通光电；桩 基环节推荐天顺风能，建议关注大金重工、泰胜风能、海力风电；风电主机 推荐金风科技、明阳智能，建议关注运达股份；定转子环节建议关注振江股 份。 【宏观】7 月通胀数据点评：食品价格带动 CPI 回升，PPI 仍然偏弱 食品价格上涨带动 CPI 回升 7 月 CPI 同比增长 0.5%，为去年 2 季度以来剔 除春节月份最大增幅。核心 CPI 同比增速回落。PPI 环比继续下 ...

金工量化周报 分析师 | 冯佳睿 S0800524040008 | | --- | | 13564917688 | | fengjiarui@research.xbmail.com.cn | 相关研究 市场缩量下探，北水年度净流出 技术分析洞察（2024.08.05-2024.08.09） 核心结论 投资建议：本周北向资金继续流出，年度净买入额由正转负。周五市场成交 缩量到 5659 亿，沪深 300 等 ETF 未见成交放量，护盘资金没有明显动作。 主要宽基指数缩量下探窄幅振荡，正在构造中枢支撑。我们认为地量之后或 还有地价，市场磨底阶段需要注意控制仓位，耐心等待增量资金。1）行业 层面建议关注食品饮料、房地产、建筑材料、医药生物等板块，以上板块均 得到北向资金增持。2）主题层面建议关注转基因、特色小镇、毛发医疗、 建筑节能等概念，近期检测到技术走势斜率的排名靠前。3）个股层面近期 没有检测到横盘突破形态特征。 宽基指数：缩量下探构造支撑。本周中证全指录得 1.70%的跌幅，主要宽基 指数缩量下探。其中上证指数跌幅 1.48%，创业板指跌幅 2.60%，微盘股指 数涨幅 0.38%。上证 50 本周向下笔走 ...

行业周报 | 建筑材料 深圳推出商品房收购政策 玻璃价格继续调整 建材行业周报 20240805-20240811 核心结论 1、水泥：本周全国水泥均价 382.2 元/吨，环比持平，同比+20.67 元/吨（+5.72%）。 全国水泥煤炭价差 271.54 元/吨，环比-1.17 元/吨（-0.43%），同比+19.11 元/ 吨（+7.57%）。全国库容比 66.31%，环比-0.75pct，同比-6.94pct。全国出货率 48.8%，环比+2.1pct，同比-4.0pct。 2、玻璃：本周国内浮法均价 1456.96 元/吨，环比-14.01 元/吨（-0.95%），同比 -628.41 元/吨（-30.1%）。玻璃-纯碱-天然气价差 205.30 元/吨，环比-58.21 元/ 吨（-22.09%），同比-654.90 元/吨（-76.13%）。库存 6049 万重箱，环比-2.48%。 3、玻纤：本周无碱玻璃纤维纱均价 4029 元/吨，环比持平；中碱玻璃纤维纱均 价为 5350 元/吨，环比持平；缠绕直接纱均价 3750 元/吨，环比持平；电子纱均 价 9200 元/吨，环比持平。 4、储能：本 ...