晨会纪要 核心结论 分析师 【北交所】戈碧迦（920438.BJ）首次覆盖报告：高端光学材料龙头，先进 封装及 AI 上游核心材料替代先锋 公司作为玻璃行业"小巨人"，基本盘稳定，特种功能玻璃不断实现突破， 目前已在多个领域率先实现了进口替代，在先进封装和 AI 浪潮下，公司有 望实现高速增长。因此，我们预计公司在 25-27 年有望实现营业总收入 6.35/9.28/13.39 亿元，归母净利润 0.63/1.20/1.91 亿元。根据可比公司平均 估值情况，首次覆盖给予公司"增持"评级。 【建筑材料】东方雨虹（002271.SZ）深度跟踪报告：防水龙头国内市占率 提升，海外全力发展新增量 我们认为公司作为防水行业绝对龙头，短期受益于行业盈利修复预期、经营 质量改善，中长期受益于扩品类提供新增长潜力、出海战略进入加速兑现期 打开需求天花板。我们预测公司 25-27 年实现归母净利润 10.93/16.94/23.00 亿元，选取防水行业上市公司以及建材各细分行业龙头作为可比公司，给予 公司 25 年 25 倍 PE，对应目标价 17.73 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 【计算机】DeepSeek 开源"条件记 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, Gobi Jia (920438.BJ) [5][14]. Core Insights - Gobi Jia is a leading high-tech enterprise engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of optical glass and specialty functional glass, with a focus on innovation and technology [2][18]. - The company has successfully developed various specialty glass products, including nano-microcrystalline glass, radiation-resistant glass, and high-temperature resistant glass, which are widely used in multiple applications [2][18]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for specialty glass in the semiconductor and AI sectors, with expectations of significant revenue growth in the coming years [3][14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Gobi Jia has expanded its optical glass product range from 2 to over 100 varieties, covering mainstream optical glass types and extending into specialty glass products [2][3]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the specialty glass market, competing with international giants like Corning [2][12]. Market Demand and Competition - The optical glass market is experiencing robust demand driven by advancements in consumer electronics, including smartphones and tablets, which are pushing the development of nano-microcrystalline glass technology [2][44]. - The company is positioned in a competitive landscape where most domestic manufacturers focus on mid-to-low-end optical glass production, while Gobi Jia aims for high-end applications [42][44]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 635 million, 928 million, and 1.339 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 63 million, 120 million, and 191 million yuan [3][14]. - The report indicates a stable growth trajectory for the company, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.2% for total revenue from 2020 to 2024 [24]. Technological Advancements - Gobi Jia is committed to continuous technological investment, focusing on the development of specialty functional glass and optimizing production processes to enhance product quality and reduce costs [11][12]. - The company has plans to invest up to 1 billion yuan in building six production lines for specialty electronic glass fibers, targeting applications in AI servers, 5G communication, and aerospace [2][3].

Market Overview - On January 12, the North Exchange A-shares trading volume reached 43.52 billion yuan, an increase of 13.69 billion yuan from the previous trading day[1] - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1605.77, up 5.35%, with a PE_TTM of 67.48 times[1] - The North Exchange Specialized and Innovative Index closed at 2782.05, rising by 6.92%[1] Stock Performance - Out of 287 companies on the North Exchange, 272 rose, 0 remained flat, and 15 declined[1] - The top five gainers were: - Zhongcheng Technology (30.0%) - Tianrun Technology (30.0%) - Xingtum Control (30.0%) - Tonghui Information (30.0%) - Liujin Technology (29.9%)[1] - The top five decliners were: - Hongxi Technology (-6.2%) - Henghe Co., Ltd. (-3.0%) - Hengdong Light (-2.5%) - Haixi Communication (-2.3%) - Jiahua Technology (-2.2%)[1] Investment Insights - The overall trading activity on the North Exchange was robust, benefiting from the overall heat in the A-share market, which saw a record trading volume of 3.64 trillion yuan[3] - The technology growth sector, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, and controlled nuclear fusion, experienced significant gains, driving related companies on the North Exchange[3] - The North Exchange's focus on innovative small and medium enterprises aligns well with current policy support for "new quality productivity," suggesting continued benefits from the deepening technology growth trend[3] Risks - Potential risks include policy regulatory risks, unexpected policy changes for the North Exchange, and intensified industry competition[4]

行业周报 | 北交所 北交所或迎补涨，关注商业航天、脑机接口、AI 应用等主线 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 13 日 北交所市场复盘：当周北交所全部 A 股日均成交额达 261.3 亿元，环比上涨 34.7%。当周北证 50 收涨 5.82%，北证专精特新收涨 7.34%。当周涨幅前 五大个股分别为：倍益康（45.1%）、众诚科技（42.9%）、天力复合（36.0%）、 格利尔（30.0%）、连城数控（24.3%）；跌幅前五大个股分别为：天铭科技 （-19.8%）、锦好医疗（-17.7%）、恒合股份（-16.4%）、佳合科技（-13.8%）、 丰光精密（-5.3%）。 北交所：春季行情预期加强，流动性外溢，关 注基本面叠加边际变化—北交所日报—— 20260106 2026-01-07 北交所：科技主线引领指数上行，政策与资金 共振强化春季行情预期—北交所市场日报— —20260105 2026-01-06 北交所：看好北交所春季行情，扩容提质提速， 风险提示：政策监管风险，北交所政策不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险。 北交所市场周报——260105-260110 分析师 曹森元 S08005241000 ...

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The report indicates that Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform A-shares in 2025, but face challenges in the second half due to a stronger US dollar, slowing southbound capital inflows, and deteriorating fundamentals [2] - In 2026, three factors are expected to drive a rebound in Hong Kong stocks: a weaker US dollar, appreciation of the RMB attracting overseas Chinese capital, and a recovery in China's economic fundamentals due to inflation and potential debt restructuring policies [2][4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The report highlights that Hong Kong stocks have greater elasticity compared to A-shares due to the absence of trading limits and capital flow restrictions, with international capital being the most significant influence on pricing [4] - The anticipated weakening of the US dollar in 2026 is expected to drive international capital to allocate more towards Hong Kong stocks, as the dollar's strength in the latter half of 2025 may have caused relative weakness in Hong Kong stocks [4] - The inflow of Chinese capital into Hong Kong stocks is expected to diversify beyond just southbound funds, with a significant amount of capital currently overseas likely to invest in Hong Kong, benefiting from RMB appreciation [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - HanShuo Technology (301275.SZ) is set to begin mass production of its smart shopping carts, marking a significant advancement in AI-driven retail digitalization [7] - The partnership with Woolworths, a leading Australian retailer, aims to enhance customer shopping experiences and operational efficiency through innovative technology solutions [8] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.056 billion, 4.787 billion, and 5.747 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating based on its growth potential in retail digitalization [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it has been maintained [4] Core Insights - The company has signed a sales intention agreement with Woolworths, a major Australian food retailer, to deliver AI-driven smart shopping carts and camera integration solutions, marking a significant step towards mass production [1][2] - The collaboration with Woolworths is expected to enhance store efficiency and customer experience through deep cooperation in digital infrastructure [2] - The company has a strong focus on retail digitalization, particularly in the electronic price tag sector, and is well-positioned to expand its digital solutions in retail [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025 at 4.056 billion, 2026 at 4.787 billion, and 2027 at 5.747 billion, indicating a growth rate of 18.0% and 20.0% for the respective years [3] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 489 million, with a significant increase to 706 million in 2026 and 837 million in 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.16 in 2025, increasing to 1.67 in 2026 and 1.98 in 2027 [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue growth rate is projected to be 31.9% in 2023, 18.8% in 2024, with a decline of 9.6% in 2025, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 40.9% in 2023, decreasing to 30.1% in 2024, and stabilizing around 19.2% by 2027 [8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 34.3 in 2023 to 27.8 by 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness over time [3][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, Hong Kong stocks outperformed A-shares overall, but weakened in the second half due to a stronger USD, slowing southbound capital inflow, and deteriorating fundamentals[6] - In 2026, three factors are expected to drive a rebound in Hong Kong stocks: a weaker USD, appreciation of the RMB attracting overseas Chinese capital, and a recovery in inflation and potential debt reduction policies[6][8] Group 2: Capital Flows - The first gate: A weaker USD in 2026 is likely to drive international capital to allocate more to Hong Kong stocks[8] - The second gate: RMB appreciation in 2026 is expected to attract a significant amount of overseas Chinese capital into Hong Kong stocks, which will be smoother than southbound capital that faces opportunity costs and exchange rate risks[11][60] - The third gate: Recovery in cash flow statements and balance sheets of the real economy in 2026 will mark the beginning of economic prosperity in China[12] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "Davis Triple Play" is anticipated for the Hang Seng Technology Index in 2026, with structural opportunities in innovative drugs and new consumption continuing[14][95] - Hong Kong stocks' dividend yield is expected to continue outperforming A-shares, with a long-term higher dividend rate attracting absolute return funds[120] - The innovative drug sector in Hong Kong is expected to see significant growth as Chinese companies improve their R&D capabilities and close the valuation gap with U.S. counterparts[126] Group 4: Risks - Risks include changes in international situations, unexpected increases in U.S. Treasury yields, and shifts in industrial policies[13][141]

Group 1: Home Appliances Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities at the bottom of the consumer sector, focusing on the "dividend +" allocation direction as high-end consumption and certain mass-market products show signs of recovery [1][5] - The report highlights that the market is gradually returning its attention to the consumer sector due to the implementation of national subsidy policies and the demand for high-quality investments, although high valuations and non-mainstream sectors remain less attractive [1][5] - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong business models, high dividends, stable performance, and favorable valuations, such as Haier Smart Home, Midea Group, and Gree Electric [3][5] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace and Power Equipment Industry - The commercial aerospace sector in China is characterized by grand planning and significant potential, with expectations for a transition from "hundreds" to "thousands" of low-orbit satellites between 2026 and 2027, marking a shift to mass production and high-density launches [6] - The report suggests that the aerospace cable industry, which requires high environmental performance and reliability, is expected to see significant growth due to the increasing frequency of rocket launches, with recommendations to focus on companies like Hualing Cable [6][7] - The report also discusses the importance of rocket fuel tanks, which represent a significant cost in rocket structures, and suggests monitoring companies like Taisheng Wind Energy for investment opportunities [7] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year in December, the highest since March 2023, indicating a recovery in prices [10][11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in December, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, suggesting a potential acceleration in nominal GDP growth [11][12] - The report anticipates that the trends of rising inflation and nominal GDP growth will continue into 2026, supported by improving economic indicators [11][12]

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The financial industry saw a weekly increase of +2.60% in the non-bank financial index, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.19 percentage points [1] - The insurance sector outperformed with a weekly increase of +3.58%, benefiting from strong performance in listed insurance companies [1][9] - The banking sector experienced a decline of -1.90%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.69 percentage points, with all types of banks showing negative performance [1][9] Group 2: Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector's strong performance is driven by high growth in "opening red" earnings, indicating a solid investment logic with improving fundamentals [1][13] - The sector benefits from a dual drive of asset under management (AUM) expansion and interest rate spread recovery, with a clear trend of increasing industry concentration [1][17] - Recommended companies in the insurance sector include China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and New China Life [3] Group 3: Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector saw a weekly increase of +1.90%, with a PB valuation of 1.41x, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2][18] - Notable developments include GF Securities' plan to raise funds through H-share placement to support international business expansion [2][18] - Recommended brokerages include Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and CITIC Securities, focusing on those with strong fundamentals and low valuations [3][19] Group 4: Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector's PB valuation stands at 0.53x, with expectations for interest margin recovery in 2026, driven by reduced re-pricing pressure on loans [2][21] - The People's Bank of China indicated a continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to support the banking sector's performance [2][21] - Recommended banks include Hangzhou Bank, with additional focus on Qingdao Bank and Ningbo Bank for potential recovery opportunities [3][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5][9] Core Insights - The report highlights Midea's acquisition of Carestream Health's global business, which is expected to create synergies with Midea's existing medical business in terms of channels and equipment resources [5][6] - The consumer robotics sector is advancing towards embodied intelligence, with a notable decline in domestic supply chain substitution expected [2][4] - The report emphasizes the performance of major brands in the vacuum cleaner market, noting a significant sales decline for some brands while others, like Roborock, have shown growth [2][3] Summary by Sections White Goods - Midea's acquisition of Carestream Medical's global business is expected to enhance its existing medical operations through effective resource synergy [5][6] Consumer Robotics - December sales data shows a year-on-year decline of 29% for the overall market, with leading brands like Ecovacs and Roborock experiencing varying sales changes [2] - New product launches at CES include Roborock's G-Rover, which is the world's first stair-climbing vacuum robot, and Ecovacs' T90 pro omni, which features upgraded roller lengths and new pre-spray functions [3] Laser Technology in Robotics - Hesai Technology announced that it will lead the market in 3D LiDAR shipments for lawn mowing robots by 2025, showcasing its new models at CES 2026 [4] - The integration of digital all-solid-state LiDAR in new lawn mowing robots was highlighted by Ninebot and other companies [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on white goods, particularly Haier, Midea, and Gree, due to their strong market positions and potential benefits from the current economic environment [7] - It also suggests selecting consumer technology stocks like Ecovacs and others, while keeping an eye on companies like TCL Electronics for overseas growth opportunities [7]