Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the manufacturing sector, with a manufacturing PMI of 50.2% in February, returning to the expansion zone [1][8][30]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector has continued its recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, with the February manufacturing PMI rising by 1.1 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion [1][2]. - The non-manufacturing PMI also saw a slight increase, rising by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%, driven by a significant recovery in the construction sector due to infrastructure activities [2][22]. - Fiscal expansion is expected to support economic growth in the first half of the year, with increased corporate loan growth and accelerated government bond financing [2][24]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index rose by 2.7 percentage points to 52.5%, and the new orders index increased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.1%, both exceeding the highs of the previous quarter [6][10]. - The recovery in manufacturing is primarily driven by large enterprises, with their PMI increasing by 2.6 percentage points to 52.5%, while medium and small enterprises saw declines [6][15]. - Manufacturing prices have stabilized, with the raw material purchase price index rising by 1.3 percentage points to 50.8% and the factory price index increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 48.5% [6][17]. - Employment in the manufacturing sector also improved, with the employment index rising by 0.5 percentage points to 48.6%, the highest since May 2023 [6][18]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI increased slightly, with the service sector PMI declining by 0.3 percentage points to 50%, while the construction sector PMI surged by 3.4 percentage points to 52.7% [2][22]. - The construction sector's recovery is attributed to warming weather post-Spring Festival, the commencement of investment projects, and the gradual resumption of operations by enterprises [2][22]. Economic Support - The report highlights that fiscal policies are expected to expand further in 2025, providing additional support for economic growth in the first half of the year [2][24].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent credit bond market has experienced a significant yield adjustment, with the duration and magnitude of this adjustment being the second highest since 2022 [2][8][19] - The adjustment has lasted for 14 days as of the end of February 2025, with the maximum drawdown of the medium to long-term pure bond fund index reaching 61 basis points [8][9][10] - The report highlights that the tightening of the funding environment is a common factor influencing the recent adjustments, similar to the situation observed in August to October 2023 [13][14] Group 2 - In the primary market, the issuance scale of credit bonds in February decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year, with a total of 44 credit bonds canceled, marking the fifth highest cancellation scale since 2022 [2][6][12] - The secondary market saw a decline in transaction activity for city investment bonds and financial bonds, while the turnover rate for industrial bonds increased [2][4][6] - The report suggests that the core variables affecting credit bond trends are the funding environment and institutional behavior, with limited potential for further significant increases in credit bond yields [17][19][20] Group 3 - The report recommends a strategy of focusing on short-duration bonds and selectively timing investments in medium to long-duration bonds, particularly after the release of policy signals from the National People's Congress [5][17] - It is anticipated that the adjustment space for short-duration non-financial credit bonds may be within 20 basis points, while medium to long-duration bonds are expected to have a limited adjustment space of around 10 basis points [14][19] - The report emphasizes that the demand for credit bonds remains supported by the net buying activity of wealth management products during the recent market adjustment [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [38] Core Insights - Industrial production maintains a rapid growth, with January and February manufacturing PMI averaging above the previous year's levels, indicating a positive trend in industrial activity [1][2] - Consumer spending during the Spring Festival showed significant growth, with domestic travel expenditure increasing by 7% year-on-year and retail sales rising by 4.1% [1][2] - Government financing has accelerated, potentially boosting infrastructure investment, with fixed asset investment expected to grow by 3.3% year-on-year [2] - Export growth is anticipated to slow down, with a projected 5% increase in exports for January-February, down from 10.7% in December [2] - CPI is expected to decline by 0.4% in February due to falling agricultural prices, while PPI is projected to decrease by 2% [3] - Social financing growth is likely to rebound, with new loans expected to be 800 billion yuan and total social financing at 2.2 trillion yuan [3] Summary by Sections Economic Data Overview - Industrial production is expected to see a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.4% for January-February, although it is a slight decrease from December's 6.2% [1] - Retail sales are projected to grow by 3.9% year-on-year for January-February, an increase from December's 3.7% [1] Government Financing and Investment - The construction PMI showed a recovery in February, reaching 65.1%, indicating a rebound in construction activity [2] - Local government bond issuance has increased significantly, which may support infrastructure investment growth [2] Export and Trade - Exports are expected to grow by 5% year-on-year for January-February, a decrease from December's 10.7% growth, while imports are projected to remain flat [2] Price Indices - CPI is forecasted to decline by 0.4% in February, while PPI is expected to decrease by 2%, indicating a contraction in price levels [3] Social Financing - New social financing is projected to reach 2.2 trillion yuan in February, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [3]

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 20 日 DeepSeek 代表着国内 AI 技术从追赶迈向引领，中国科技资产有望迎来重估， 基于行业影响力、技术创新能力等因素，我们选出港股科技股"Big7"，分别为： 阿里巴巴、腾讯控股、小米集团、美团、中芯国际、比亚迪、地平线机器人。 阿里巴巴：阿里云及 AI 业务或将迎来价值重估 行业点评 | 计算机 港股科技股 Big7 阿里巴巴是中国最大的科技企业之一，业务涵盖电商、云计算、本地生活、国际 数字商业等多个领域。公司的核心竞争力在于"数据-技术-场景"闭环。与苹果 的合作，为中国版 iPhone 开发 AI 功能，阿里云及 AI 业务或将迎来价值重估。 小米集团-W：AI 终端龙头，"人车家全生态"战略持续深化 小米集团是一家以智能手机、智能硬件和 IoT 平台为核心的消费电子及智能制造 公司。小米的核心优势在于强产品力及庞大的生态系统。未来，汽车将成为公司 第二增长曲线，AI 有望赋能小米全生态打开公司成长天花板。 美团-W：本地生活服务龙头 美团是中国本地生活服务领域的超级平台，聚焦"吃住行游购娱"全场景数字化， 构建了即时配送、到店酒旅等多元业务矩阵。美团 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) with a target price of 9.46 RMB, corresponding to a PE of 43 times and a predicted market value of 2005.94 billion RMB [2][21]. Core Viewpoints - Luoyang Molybdenum is positioned as a world-class resource leader, leveraging strategic acquisitions and a diversified, international approach to enhance its growth in the energy metals sector [1][2]. - The company has successfully completed a cost reduction plan, achieving savings of 500 million USD ahead of schedule, which is expected to accelerate profit release [2][18]. - The intrinsic value of the company's mineral rights is estimated at 1925.47 billion RMB, while its current market capitalization is around 1400 billion RMB, indicating potential for value re-evaluation [2][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum has transformed from a regional mining company to a global leader through strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of NPM copper-gold mine and TFM copper-cobalt mine, among others [1][24]. - The company is now one of the largest producers of tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and molybdenum globally, with a diversified portfolio that includes significant assets in various countries [1][24]. Growth Strategy - The company focuses on both internal growth and external expansion, particularly in the energy metals sector, which is expected to drive long-term growth [20][22]. - The TFM project is projected to significantly increase copper and cobalt production, with future capacity reaching 40-50 million tons of copper and 3-4 million tons of cobalt annually [18][20]. Financial Performance - The report forecasts revenue growth from 68.68 billion RMB in 2019 to 134.30 billion RMB in 2023, with net profit expected to rise from 1.86 billion RMB to 8.49 billion RMB during the same period [4][2]. - The company's EPS is projected to increase from 0.09 RMB in 2019 to 0.39 RMB in 2023, reflecting strong earnings growth [4][2]. Market Position - Luoyang Molybdenum's strategic partnerships, such as with CATL for resource development, enhance its competitive position in the energy metals market [1][20]. - The company has established a global marketing network across five continents, which is expected to strengthen its influence in the resource industry [29][24].

公司点评 | 华峰铝业 新建 15 万吨扩为新建 45 万吨，高增长无忧+护城河加固 证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 20 日 华峰铝业（601702.SH）扩产公告点评 事件：公司公告，将年产 15 万吨新能源汽车用高端铝板带箔项目变更为年 产 45 万吨新能源汽车用高端铝板带箔智能化建设项目。 核心数据 | | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 8,545 | 9,291 | 10,802 | 12,426 | 14,295 | | 增长率 | 32.5% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 15.0% | 15.0% | | 归母净利润 (百万元) | 666 | 899 | 1,214 | 1,506 | 1,787 | | 增长率 | 33.1% | 35.1% | 35.0% | 24.0% | 18.7% | | 每股收益（EPS） | 0.67 | 0.90 | 1.22 | 1.51 | 1.79 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 30.8 | 2 ...

公司点评 | 圆通速递 1 月包裹量稳健增长，单票收入环比+2.62% 圆通速递（600233.SH）2025 年 1 月经营数据点评 摘要内容 事件：圆通速递公告 2025 年 1 月快递业务主要经营数据。 1 月圆通快递包裹量保持稳健增长。2025 年 1 月，圆通速递实现包裹量 22.68 亿件，同比+5.46%。（1）受春节跨期因素影响，1 月各快递公司包裹量增速 偏低。（2）1 月圆通包裹量增速稳健：顺丰（15.95%）＞申通（11.77%） ＞圆通（5.46%）＞韵达（2.86%）。 1 月圆通单票收入同比降幅最小，环比+2.62%。2025 年 1 月，圆通速递单 票收入为 2.35 元，同比-3.76%；较 2024 年 12 月提升 0.06 元，环比+2.62%。 （1）一季度通常为快递行业淡季，各快递公司单票收入同比有所下降。（2） 1 月圆通单票收入同比降幅最小：圆通（-3.76%）＜申通（-5.94%）＜顺丰 （-8.18%）＜韵达（-11.01%）。 拟以 2.34 亿元的交易价格向控股股东购买广州圆盛通物流 100%股权，旨在 实现华南地区资产的优化配置。（1）交易概况：1 月 ...

公司点评 | 申通快递 1 月包裹量实现较好增长，单票收入环比+1.98% 管理改善与产能提升并举，公司处不断改善通道中，维持"增持"评级。我 们预计公司 2024-2026 年每股收益分别为 0.65/0.84/1.02 元。我们认为公司 具备通过管理改善和产能扩张应对市场变化的能力，公司业绩持续改善的可 能性不低，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：价格竞争激烈；成本大幅上涨；监管政策影响；宏观经济增长不 及预期。 核心数据 | | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 33,671 | 40,924 | 49,685 | 56,695 | 64,352 | | 增长率 | 33.3% | 21.5% | 21.4% | 14.1% | 13.5% | | 归母净利润 (百万元) | 288 | 341 | 1,000 | 1,292 | 1,568 | | 增长率 | 131.6% | 18.4% | 193.4% | 29.3% | 21.4% | | 每股收益（EP ...

行业动态跟踪 | 农林牧渔 1 月上市猪企出栏量同环比均下降，出栏均价同比上升环比回落 证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 23 日 生猪行业动态跟踪报告（月度） 我们通过分析 18 家上市猪企的出栏月报，得出以下结论： 上市猪企 25 年 1 月出栏量为 920.02 万头，同比-0.76%，环比-7.89%。头 部企业中，温氏股份/新希望分别出栏 289.97/149.87 万头，同比分别 +9.95%/-13.11%，环比分别-4.64%/-5.83%。25 年 1 月上市猪企出栏量同比、 环比均下滑，其中出栏量环比下滑的原因是今年春节假期提前至 1 月下旬， 造成 1 月生猪行业开工率普遍下降。出栏量同比下滑的原因是新希望、天邦、 华统等公司出栏量同比下滑较大。 上市猪企 25 年 1 月营业收入为 144.30 亿元，同比+23.72%，环比-14.10%。 头部企业中，温氏股份/新希望实现收入 53.49/20.57 亿元，同比分别 +26.07%/-4.72%，环比分别-10.37%/-14.65%。25 年 1 月上市猪企收入同 比大增的原因是出栏价明显高于去年同期，收入环比下降的原因是生猪 ...

行业日报 | 北交所 科技主线驱动指数突破 1300 点，阿里巴巴资本开支超预期 证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 20 日 北交所市场点评——20250220 核心结论 行情回顾：1）指数层面：当日北证 50 收涨 1.5%，成交额达 351.2 亿元， 较昨日增长 66.9 亿元。2）个股层面：当日北交所 264 家公司中 208 家上涨， 1 家平盘，55 家下跌，涨停 3 家。其中涨幅前五的个股分别为：万达轴承 （+30.0%）、纬达光电（+30.0%）、三维股份（+29.9%）、苏轴股份（+24.2%）、 阿为特（+19.3%），跌幅前五的个股分别为：雷特科技（-8.8%）、并行科 技（-8.0%）、云创数据（-6.5%）、力王股份（-4.4%）、立方控股（-4.2%）。 新闻汇总：1）金融监管总局：允许港澳银行内地分行开办外币银行卡业务以 及对除中国境内公民以外客户的人民币银行卡业务。2）《广州开发区（黄 埔区）科技创新创业投资母基金直接股权投资实施细则的通知》正式发布。 重要公告：1）鑫汇科：公司公告持股股东减持股份，股东名称：张勇涛，已减 持数量：499800 股，已减持比例：1.00%， ...