行业深度研究 | 航海装备Ⅱ 船舶：国家队破局高端，民企新秀势头强劲 船舶行业系列报告之一 摘要内容 回顾 2025 年，受多重因素叠加影响，全球新船市场交易节奏放缓：一边是 新船价格持续处于相对高位，另一边是航运运价相对低迷，形成价格错位； 同时，美国加征关税及相关 301 调查带来的贸易限制与不确定性，则进一步 加剧了船东的观望情绪。而转机在于，2025 年 11 月 9 日，美国贸易代表办 公室（USTR）已宣布暂停一年对中国针对海运、物流和造船行业以获取主 导地位的 301 调查行动。 展望 2026 年，全球各主要船型景气度预计向好：1）集装箱船：密切关注红 海复航情况，支线型集装箱船有望成为亮点；2）散货船：2025 年 11 月投 产的西芒杜铁矿预计在未来几年内将重塑全球铁矿石的贸易流向，并为散货 航运市场带来增长；3）油轮：OPEC+已逐步开启增产，美制裁俄导致运力 供需紧张。 重点标的分析： 中国船舶：中国船舶是中国船舶集团有限公司核心军民品主业上市公司，下 属有江南造船、大连船舶、武昌船舶、广船国际、外高桥造船和澄西船舶修 造等 22 家子公司。沪东中华后续亦承诺三年内注入上市公司主体。中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal chemical engineering sector, particularly highlighting China National Chemical Corporation as a representative company [1]. Core Insights - New coal chemical technology is seen as a beneficial supplement to petroleum chemistry, especially in the context of China's high dependence on foreign oil and gas. The importance of coal chemical technology is emphasized due to recent geopolitical events affecting energy security [1]. - China leads globally in coal chemical technology and scale, with potential for high-quality exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. The report cites advancements in methanol-to-olefins technology as a key area of development [1]. - The report suggests that companies like China National Chemical Corporation, Sinopec Engineering, and others are well-positioned to benefit from the growth in the coal chemical sector [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review and Summary - The construction index increased by 1.88% and the building materials index rose by 9.23% during the week of January 19-23, 2026. Year-to-date, the construction index has risen by 7.99%, ranking 13th out of 30 industries, while the building materials index has increased by 12.49%, ranking 6th [9][5]. - The report notes that the chemical engineering sector saw the highest gains, with a 10.95% increase, while other sectors like housing construction and landscaping experienced declines [9]. Special Debt and Funding Status - As of January 23, 2026, local government special bond issuance amounted to 644.20 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 183.09%. The report anticipates a further increase in bond issuance in the following week [2][19]. - The funding availability rate for construction sites was reported at 59.21%, with a slight decline observed in both residential and non-residential projects [19]. Cement Industry Weekly Data Tracking - The national average cement price remained stable at 260.8 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week and an 18.0% decrease year-on-year. The report predicts limited recovery in demand leading up to the Spring Festival [30][36]. - Cement production for the year 2025 was reported at 1.693 billion tons, reflecting a 6.9% year-on-year decline [46]. Key Company Orders and Valuation - The report highlights the valuation of key companies in the construction and building materials sectors, noting that the overall A-share market P/E ratio is 18.33, while the construction and building materials sectors have P/E ratios of 10.12 and 24.98, respectively [14]. - Companies such as China National Chemical Corporation and Sinopec Engineering are recommended for their favorable valuations and growth potential in the coal chemical sector [2].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in various sectors including commercial aerospace, solid-state batteries, and photovoltaic companies, highlighting specific companies for potential investment opportunities [1][2][3]. Core Insights - Elon Musk announced a plan to achieve 200GW of solar power capacity in the U.S. within three years, with a focus on space applications [1][51]. - The commercial aerospace sector remains robust, with recommendations for companies like Foster, Maiwei, and Mingyang Smart Energy [1]. - The solid-state battery sector is gaining traction, with a strategic partnership between Enjie and Enli Power to advance solid-state battery technology [2][54]. - The photovoltaic sector is highlighted with recommended stocks such as Aiko and suggestions to monitor other companies like Dike and Juhua Materials [1][2]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - Musk's 200GW solar plan aims to support space AI and is expected to enhance the efficiency of solar power generation in space [1][51]. - Mingyang Smart Energy is acquiring 100% of Zhongshan Dehua, expanding its footprint in the energy sector [1][50]. - Recommended stocks in the photovoltaic sector include Aiko, with additional attention to Dike and Juhua Materials [1][2]. Solid-State Batteries - Enjie and Enli Power have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to promote the industrialization of solid-state batteries [2][54]. - The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration in overcoming key material and process bottlenecks in solid-state battery production [2][54]. Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a growth area, with recommendations for companies such as Foster and Maiwei [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Hualing Cable and Liansheng Technology for potential investment opportunities [1]. Energy Storage - By the end of 2025, China's power storage capacity is projected to reach 213.3GW, with new energy storage installations expected to grow significantly [3]. - Recommended companies in the energy storage sector include Sunshine Power and Yiwei Lithium Energy [3]. Electric Vehicles - The report notes a significant increase in electric vehicle production and sales, with December 2025 seeing a production of 1.5348 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.1% [9][12]. - Recommended stocks in the electric vehicle sector include CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy [2]. Market Trends - The report indicates a 5.0% year-on-year growth in total electricity consumption in 2025, reaching 10,368.2 billion kWh [44]. - The electricity market transaction volume is expected to continue growing, with a notable increase in green electricity trading [45]. Pricing Trends - Prices for battery materials, including lithium and nickel, have shown upward trends, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 171,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 8.23% [33][35]. - The report also notes price increases in battery cells and components, reflecting ongoing demand in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [33][36].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [4][15]. Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical industry is rapidly growing, leading to increased demand for consumables such as filters. The global biopharmaceutical upstream market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.4% from 2024 to 2030, reaching a market size of $44.7 billion by 2035 [1][4]. - The company is a leading medical device provider in China, offering comprehensive solutions across various specialized fields. As of June 30, 2025, the company holds 927 product registrations and 1,084 patents domestically, with 905 product registrations and 156 patents overseas [1][4]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.09 billion, 2.29 billion, and 2.51 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.18%, 9.37%, and 9.62% [2][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1988, has become a leader in the medical device and consumables sector in China, focusing on clinical care, orthopedic consumables, drug packaging, and blood technology [20][21]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with 46.51% owned by Weigao Group, ensuring experienced management [21][23]. Industry Outlook - The global medical device market is projected to grow from $456.6 billion in 2020 to $623 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 8.1%. By 2035, the market size is expected to reach $1,157.6 billion [43][44]. - The Chinese medical device market is also expanding, with a projected growth from 729.8 billion yuan in 2020 to 941.7 billion yuan in 2024, at a CAGR of 6.6% [46][48]. Product Lines and Growth Drivers - The company is diversifying its product lines, focusing on high-end consumables and expanding into new markets. The automatic injection pen market is expected to grow significantly, driven by domestic and international demand [11][13]. - The company anticipates revenue growth in various segments, including medical devices, drug packaging, interventional products, orthopedic products, and blood management, with specific growth rates projected for 2025-2027 [11][12][31]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 13.42 billion, 14.74 billion, and 16.22 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 2.52%, 9.83%, and 10.04% [2][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.46 in 2025 to 0.55 in 2027, reflecting the company's growth strategy and market positioning [2][15].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - In 2025, AI comic dramas are accelerating their implementation across major video platforms, with Douyin creating a new section for AI comic dramas and platforms like Hongguo Short Drama developing dedicated apps [1] - The number of AI comic dramas launched reached 3,000 in the first half of 2025, with a compound growth rate of 83%, and over 6,500 new AI comic dramas were launched on Douyin in September 2025 alone [1][2] - The representative AI comic drama "全民诡异：开局掌握零元购" achieved 320 million views on Douyin in December 2025, while "斩仙台下，我震惊了诸神" reached a total of 1 billion views [2] - AI comic dramas have a significant cost advantage, with production costs as low as 400 RMB per minute compared to 1,300 RMB for high-quality 3D animations and 15,000 to 40,000 RMB for quality short dramas [2] - The profitability of AI comic dramas is evident, with net profits ranging from 200,000 to 300,000 RMB for paid dramas with over 10 million views, and around 100,000 RMB for free dramas on Douyin [2] - Continuous iterations of generative AI models are enhancing the quality of AI comic dramas, providing a technological foundation for cost reduction and high-quality development [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - AI comic dramas are rapidly being adopted on various video platforms, with significant growth in content production and viewership [1][2] Financial Performance - The industry shows strong profitability potential, with AI comic dramas achieving substantial view counts and net profits [2] Technological Advancements - The ongoing development of generative AI models is crucial for improving the quality and reducing the costs of AI comic dramas [3] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies to watch include Zhaochi Co., Bilibili-W, Jiecheng Co., and Reading Group for AI video tools and IP, as well as Danghong Technology and Kuaishou-W for multi-modal large models [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the insurance sector, indicating a strong continuity in market performance despite recent fluctuations [2][12][16]. Core Insights - The financial sector experienced a mixed performance this week, with the non-bank financial index down by 1.45%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.83 percentage points. The insurance sector saw a decline of 4.02%, while the brokerage sector decreased by 0.61% [1][10]. - The insurance sector's performance is driven by two main factors: policy support leading to economic recovery and liquidity easing combined with a strong stock market. The report suggests a shift from liquidity-driven growth to a focus on macro policy support and economic recovery expectations [2][13][16]. - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from new regulations that enhance investment management quality, with a recommendation to focus on larger, undervalued firms and those involved in mergers and acquisitions [3][18]. - The banking sector is facing a slight decline, but there are signs of recovery in profitability for leading banks, with recommendations to focus on banks with high dividend yields and those expected to benefit from market conditions [19][21]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's recent decline is attributed to short-term market sentiment and liquidity changes, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong support from both the liability and asset sides [2][12][16]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies like China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, with a specific recommendation for New China Life [4][16]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector's performance is slightly better than the overall market, with a focus on the new guidelines from the regulatory body that aim to improve fund management quality [3][17]. - Recommended firms include Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others, particularly those with strong merger and acquisition prospects [4][18]. Banking Sector - The banking sector has shown a decline but is expected to stabilize, with recommendations to focus on banks with high earnings elasticity and strong dividend yields [19][21]. - Specific banks to watch include Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and others, with a focus on those that have previously been undervalued [4][21].

PPI Trends - PPI is expected to turn positive year-on-year in the second half of 2026 after a decline of 2.6% in 2025, marking three consecutive years of decrease[1] - Recent months have shown stabilization and recovery in PPI, with a 5-month streak of no month-on-month declines as of December 2025[10] - In December 2025, 39 industrial sectors reported PPI changes, with 13 sectors experiencing month-on-month increases, 9 remaining stable, and 17 declining[10] Industrial Insights - The largest month-on-month increases in PPI for Q4 2025 were seen in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries, with increases of 12% and 7.5% respectively[15] - Despite a weak domestic demand in 2025, external demand is projected to grow rapidly, with a trade surplus increase of approximately 20%, raising its GDP share to 6.1%, the highest since 2009[22] Macroeconomic Policies - The macroeconomic policy for 2026 will remain accommodative, with a focus on supporting domestic demand through active fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing[29] - The Ministry of Finance announced that fiscal deficits and total debt levels will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending will not decrease[41] Market Performance - As of January 23, 2026, global risk assets showed mixed performance, with European and American markets weakening while emerging markets remained strong[41] - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar and Japanese yen, alongside depreciation against the euro and Canadian dollar, reflects currency market dynamics[41] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, a downturn in the real estate market, and escalating geopolitical tensions[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [7] Core Insights - 3D printing in the commercial aerospace sector significantly aids in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with traditional rocket engines requiring thousands of parts, while 3D printing can reduce parts by 80% and costs by 90%, compressing production cycles from 6 months to 1 month [2][4] - The domestic 3D printing equipment has achieved industrial-grade application capabilities, with SLM metal printing precision surpassing 0.01 mm, meeting the manufacturing requirements for precision components like rocket engines [3] - The performance improvements and product iterations have led to a breakthrough in domestic 3D printing equipment orders, with exports reaching 3.7777 million units valued at 8.9 billion yuan in 2024, and nearly matching this figure in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - The application of 3D printing technology in micro-nano satellite components shows significant advantages in mass production, supporting satellite industry launch plans [3][4] Summary by Sections - **Industry Overview**: 3D printing technology is becoming increasingly integrated into the commercial aerospace sector, with notable advancements in reducing component count and weight [4] - **Market Performance**: The domestic 3D printing equipment market is experiencing robust growth, with key players like Huazhu Gaoke and Plitel entering aerospace and new energy vehicle supply chains at competitive prices [3][5] - **Future Outlook**: The report anticipates strong growth for leading domestic 3D printing equipment companies as the market for medium and large reusable rockets and low-orbit satellite constellations develops [4]

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The report indicates that China's economy is expected to enter a phase of prosperity in 2026, with a strong ability to create wealth reflected in a projected GDP growth of 5.0% for 2025, supported by a 5.5% increase in exports despite global trade barriers [6][7] - Nominal GDP growth is under pressure but shows signs of marginal improvement, with a quarterly growth of 3.8% in Q4 2025, indicating a recovery in cash flow and potential for further recovery in 2026 due to capital repatriation and monetary easing [7][9] - Consumer spending is identified as a key area for growth, with significant potential for recovery as policies to support consumption are expected to be optimized, although the consumer balance sheets remain under pressure [8][11] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report maintains a positive outlook on major assets such as AH shares and government bonds, suggesting that A-shares will reach new highs post "spring excitement," with recommended sector allocations in non-ferrous metals, consumer goods, and high-end manufacturing [6][12] - The acquisition of a 11.94% stake in Shengang Securities by Ruida Futures is seen as a strategic move to enhance wealth management capabilities and strengthen the synergy between securities and futures, with a projected net profit increase of 30.1% to 498 million yuan by 2025 [2][15] - In the beauty and healthcare sector, Juzi Bio is positioned for growth with the approval of innovative medical devices, projecting EPS growth from 1.82 yuan in 2025 to 2.46 yuan in 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3][19] Group 3: Market Trends and Sector Analysis - The North Exchange market is experiencing a rotation with a focus on sectors like commercial aerospace and technology, suggesting structural opportunities in specialized sectors such as semiconductors and robotics, driven by favorable policies and liquidity changes [4][24] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring liquidity changes and market style shifts, recommending investments in leading companies within sectors that benefit from clear policy support [4][24] - The beauty and healthcare industry is entering a new growth phase driven by technological advancements and a strong product pipeline, with Juzi Bio leveraging its platform for competitive advantage [3][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration of China for its "Recombinant Type I α1 Collagen and Sodium Hyaluronate Composite Solution," marking a significant milestone in its product development [1][2]. - The company has successfully launched two key Class III medical devices, enhancing its competitive edge in the recombinant collagen sector [3]. - The dual product strategy addresses both wrinkle reduction and skin quality improvement, catering to diverse consumer needs in the aesthetic medicine market [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,524 million in 2023 to 7,204 million in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 57.2% in 2024 [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 1,452 million in 2023 to 2,630 million in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 44.9% in 2023 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.49 in 2023 to 2.46 in 2027, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [4]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 21.1 in 2023 to 12.8 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 7.2 in 2023 to 2.7 in 2027, suggesting a more favorable valuation relative to book value over time [4].