行业评级： | 报告期：2025.3.3-2025.3.16 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 评级变动 | 维持评级 | 医药生物行业双周报 2025 年第 6 期总第 129 期 创新和出海仍是全年投资主线之一 近期关注消费医疗板块 行业回顾 本报告期医药生物行业指数涨幅为 2.85%，在申万 31 个一级行业中 位居第 21，跑输沪深 300 指数（3.00%）。从子行业来看，线下药店、 医药流通涨幅居前，涨幅分别为 8.35%、4.05%；医疗设备跌幅居前， 跌幅为 0.08%。 行业走势： 估值方面，截至 2025 年 3 月 14 日，医药生物行业 PE（TTM 整体法， 剔除负值）为 27.31x（上期末为 26.54x），估值上行，低于均值。医 药生物申万三级行业 PE（TTM 整体法，剔除负值）前三的行业分别 为诊断服务（103.77x）、医院（43.66x）、其他医疗服务（36.92x）， 中位数为 28.51x，医药流通（15.99x）估值最低。 XXXX@gwgsc.com 本报告期，两市医药生物行业共有 28 家上市公司的股东净减持 82.05 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" and the rating has been maintained [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index experienced a decline of 0.89% during the reporting period, outperforming the CSI 300 index which fell by 1.24% [3][11] - The industry PE (TTM, excluding negative values) as of February 28, 2025, is 26.54x, slightly down from 26.68x in the previous period, indicating a valuation below the average [14] - A total of 34 listed companies in the industry reported a net reduction in shareholder holdings amounting to 807 million yuan, with 7 companies increasing their holdings by 485 million yuan and 27 companies reducing their holdings by 1.292 billion yuan [3] Industry Review - The top-performing sub-sectors during the reporting period were raw materials and chemical preparations, with increases of 5.86% and 2.80% respectively, while offline pharmacies and pharmaceutical distribution saw declines of 3.17% and 2.89% [3][11] - Among the 501 tracked companies, 249 disclosed their 2024 performance forecasts, with 43 companies expecting significant profit increases of 30% or more [4] Investment Recommendations - There are 47 pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies with performance forecasts indicating a growth rate of 30% or more, with the chemical pharmaceuticals, medical consumables, and raw materials sectors having the highest number of companies [6] - The upcoming earnings disclosure period is expected to reveal new clinical progress and key clinical data from innovative pharmaceutical companies, suggesting a focus on companies that may exceed performance expectations or demonstrate favorable clinical outcomes [6] Important Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission released the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment," which includes measures to support foreign investment in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors [17] - Johnson & Johnson's IL-23 inhibitor "Guselkumab" received NMPA approval for Crohn's disease, marking it as one of the first globally approved treatments for this indication [23][24] - Fosun Pharma's first-in-class drug "Tenapanor" has been approved for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in chronic kidney disease patients undergoing dialysis [25][26] - The approval of "Finoletinib" for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a significant advancement in the PD-1 inhibitor market in China [29][30]

2025 年 2 月 17 日 证券研究报告 行业周报 行业评级： | 报告期：2025.2.5-2025.2.14 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 评级变动 | 维持评级 | huchenxi@gwgsc.com 执业证书编号：S0200518090001 联系电话：010-68085205 研究助理 魏钰琪 weiyuqi@gwgsc.com 执业证书编号：S0200123060002 联系电话：010-68099389 2 号院 1 号楼中国长城资产大厦 16 层 医药生物行业双周报 2025 年第 4 期总第 127 期 AI 赋能将逐步深化 关注前端药物研发和后端病理诊断等应用领域 估值方面，截至 2025 年 2 月 14 日，医药生物行业 PE（TTM 整体法， 剔除负值）为 26.68x（上期末为 25.41x），估值上行，低于均值。医 药生物申万三级行业 PE（TTM 整体法，剔除负值）前三的行业分别 为诊断服务（104.32x）、医院（41.37x）、其他医疗服务（38.01x）， 中位数为 27.49x，医药流通（15.11x）估值最低。 XXXX@g ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" and the rating has been maintained [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index increased by 6.02%, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 3.19% [3][10] - The PE ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) for the industry as of February 14, 2025, is 26.68x, up from 25.41x in the previous period, indicating an upward valuation trend but still below the average [12] - The AI healthcare market in China is projected to grow significantly, with an expected increase from 8.8 billion yuan in 2023 to 315.7 billion yuan by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 43.1% [5] Industry Review - The top-performing sub-industries during the reporting period were hospitals and medical devices, with increases of 14.31% and 12.54% respectively, while blood products and chemical preparations lagged behind with increases of 0.57% and 2.38% [3][10] - A total of 249 out of 501 tracked pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies disclosed their 2024 performance forecasts, with 43 companies expecting significant profit increases of 30% or more [4] Important Industry News - The National Healthcare Security Administration released a list of key tasks for 2025 aimed at improving efficiency in medical insurance and drug procurement [15] - The approval of the first domestic biosimilar drug, "Westuximab," by Kelun Biotech marks a significant milestone in the industry [22] - The acquisition of a 28% stake in Tian Shi Li by China Resources Sanjiu for approximately 6.2 billion yuan is expected to enhance market competitiveness and resource integration [38][40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" and the rating has been maintained [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index increased by 6.02%, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 3.19% [3][10] - The PE (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as of February 14, 2025, is 26.68x, up from 25.41x in the previous period, indicating an upward valuation trend [12] - The AI medical market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.1%, increasing from 8.8 billion yuan in 2023 to 315.7 billion yuan by 2033 [5] Industry Review - The top-performing sub-industries during the reporting period were hospitals and medical devices, with increases of 14.31% and 12.54% respectively, while blood products and chemical preparations lagged behind with increases of 0.57% and 2.38% [3][10] - A total of 249 out of 501 tracked pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies disclosed their 2024 performance forecasts, with 43 companies expecting significant profit increases of 30% or more [4] Important Industry News - The National Medical Insurance Administration released a list of key tasks for 2025, aiming for 80% of regions to achieve instant settlement with designated medical institutions by the end of the year [15][16] - The approval of the first domestic biosimilar drug "Westomab" by Kelun Biotech marks a significant milestone in the industry [22][23] - The acquisition of a 28% stake in Tian Shi Li by China Resources Sanjiu for approximately 6.2 billion yuan is expected to enhance market competitiveness and resource integration [38][40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and the rating has been maintained [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index increased by 0.07% during the reporting period, ranking 11th among 31 primary industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 0.12% [4][14] - The cancellation of medication quantity restrictions in various regions, including Xinjiang, has opened up pathways for the introduction of new drugs, significantly promoting their clinical use and enhancing patient access to quality treatment options [8][9] - The international collaboration in the innovative drug sector is thriving, with several companies achieving significant partnerships for overseas expansion, with potential project values reaching up to $1 billion [9] Industry Performance - The sub-industries of blood products and medical research outsourcing showed the highest gains, with increases of 2.74% and 2.00% respectively, while vaccines and traditional Chinese medicine experienced declines of 1.91% and 1.68% [4][14] - As of January 27, 2025, the overall PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry was 25.41x, slightly up from 25.31x in the previous period, indicating a valuation increase that remains below the average and one standard deviation below the mean [5][17] Important Industry News - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the Ministry of Finance are advancing the inclusion of inter-provincial hospitalization costs into disease-based payment management, aiming for a unified and efficient payment mechanism by the end of 2025 [19][20] - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly Committee has issued guidelines to prevent monopolistic practices in the pharmaceutical sector, detailing enforcement principles and behaviors that constitute monopolistic agreements [22][23] - Vertex Pharmaceuticals' selective NaV1.8 inhibitor "Journavx" has received FDA approval, marking a significant advancement in non-opioid pain management [28][29] - Novo Nordisk's "Ozempic" has been approved for a new indication to reduce the risk of kidney disease progression and death in adults with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease, demonstrating a 24% risk reduction [33][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the medical insurance fund in China achieved a balance with a slight surplus in 2024, with total income of 3.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and total expenditure of 2.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [6][20][21] - The first version of the Class B drug catalog is expected to be released within the year, with adjustments to the medical insurance drug catalog being expedited. This catalog will focus on highly innovative drugs with significant clinical value that cannot be included in the basic medical insurance catalog due to exceeding the "basic protection" scope [7][19][62] - The introduction of the Class B catalog and the construction of a multi-level medical security system are expected to benefit more new and effective drugs for clinical patients, thus promoting the healthy development of the pharmaceutical industry [7][62] Industry Performance - During the reporting period, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index fell by 0.51%, ranking 27th among 31 first-level industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.98% [3][12] - The medical consumables and other biological products sectors experienced the largest declines, with drops of 3.57% and 3.90%, respectively. Hospitals and offline pharmacies saw declines of 9.69% and 8.57% [3][12] Valuation - As of January 17, 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry's PE (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) was 25.31x, down from 25.48x at the end of the previous period, indicating a decline in valuation below the mean and negative one standard deviation [4][15] - The top three sectors in terms of PE (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) are diagnostic services (74.23x), hospitals (36.76x), and medical consumables (32.95x), with the median at 26.12x. The lowest valuation is in pharmaceutical circulation at 15.26x [4][15] Important Industry News - The National Medical Insurance Administration plans to release the first version of the Class B drug catalog within the year, which will focus on innovative drugs with high clinical value [17][19] - The medical insurance fund's total income and expenditure for 2024 were reported, indicating a stable financial situation for the medical insurance system [20][21] - The approval of new indications for drugs such as AstraZeneca's Calquence and Qilu Pharmaceutical's Ibrutinib highlights ongoing innovation in the industry [27][29][32] Company Dynamics - The report highlights significant stock buybacks in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, with 19 listed companies collectively increasing their holdings by 241 million yuan [60] - Key companies such as Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical and Huadong Medicine received updated investment ratings based on their performance and market conditions [52][54]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the medical insurance fund in China achieved a balance with a slight surplus in 2024, with total income of 3.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and total expenditure of 2.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [6][20][21] - The first version of the Category C drug list is expected to be released within the year, with adjustments to the medical insurance drug list being expedited. This list will focus on highly innovative drugs with significant clinical value that cannot be included in the basic medical insurance list due to exceeding the "basic protection" scope [7][18][62] - The introduction of the Category C list and the construction of a multi-tiered medical security system are expected to benefit more new and effective drugs for clinical patients, thereby promoting the healthy development of the pharmaceutical industry [7][62] Industry Performance - During the reporting period, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index fell by 0.51%, ranking 27th among 31 first-level industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.98% [3][12] - The sub-industries of medical consumables and other biological products saw declines of 3.57% and 3.90%, respectively, while hospitals and offline pharmacies experienced declines of 9.69% and 8.57% [12] Valuation - As of January 17, 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry's PE (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) was 25.31x, down from 25.48x at the end of the previous period, indicating a decline in valuation below the mean and negative one standard deviation [4][15] - The top three PE ratios among the pharmaceutical sub-industries were diagnostic services (74.23x), hospitals (36.76x), and medical consumables (32.95x), with a median of 26.12x, while pharmaceutical circulation had the lowest valuation at 15.26x [4][15] Important Industry News - The National Medical Insurance Administration plans to release the first version of the Category C drug list this year, which will focus on innovative drugs and support commercial health insurance to include these drugs in their coverage [17][18] - AstraZeneca's "Calquence" received FDA approval for a new indication, marking it as the first BTK inhibitor approved for first-line treatment of MCL [27][28] - Qilu Pharmaceutical's "Ibrutinib" has been approved for marketing in China, becoming the first generic version of this drug [29][30] - The National Medical Insurance Administration reported that the basic medical insurance fund achieved a balance with a slight surplus in 2024, indicating a stable financial situation [20][21] Company Dynamics - The report highlights various companies' investment ratings and profit forecasts, indicating a generally positive outlook for companies with innovative capabilities and differentiated products [52][54] - Notable company announcements include the approval of new drugs and the establishment of partnerships for drug development, reflecting ongoing innovation in the industry [55][58]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the "Opinions on Deepening the Reform of Drug and Medical Device Regulation to Promote High-Quality Development of the Pharmaceutical Industry," which emphasizes the need to enhance the review and approval mechanisms for innovative drugs and devices, improve efficiency, and accelerate the market entry of innovative products [7][22][84] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index experienced a decline of 9.34%, ranking 13th among 31 primary industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 4.02% [3][12] - The report notes a decrease in the overall PE ratio of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry to 25.48x, down from 27.86x, indicating a downward trend in valuation [4][14] Industry Trends - The report indicates that the blood products and traditional Chinese medicine sectors saw significant declines, with drops of 4.37% and 7.85% respectively, while hospitals and offline pharmacies faced larger declines of 14.59% and 13.81% [3][12] - The report suggests a focus on companies with original innovation capabilities and those with international expansion potential in the pharmaceutical sector [7][84] Important Industry News - The approval of the ALK inhibitor "Ensacove" by the FDA marks a significant milestone as it is the first lung cancer targeted innovative drug led by a Chinese company to be launched globally [6][35] - Eli Lilly's "Zepbound" received FDA approval as the first and only prescription drug for treating moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in adults with obesity [6][38] - The first domestic soluble microneedle drug "MICROEPAD" for acne treatment has been approved by the FDA, showcasing advancements in drug delivery technology [6][41] Valuation Insights - The report provides a detailed analysis of the PE ratios across various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, with diagnostic services leading at 75.81x, followed by hospitals at 37.01x and medical consumables at 32.09x [4][14] Stockholder Activity - During the reporting period, 31 listed companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a net reduction in shareholder holdings amounting to 1.211 billion yuan, with 11 companies increasing their holdings by 541 million yuan and 20 companies reducing theirs by 1.752 billion yuan [4][80]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the successful convening of the National Medical Security Work Conference, which aims to explore multi-payment mechanisms for innovative drugs and gradually expand the list of Class B drugs to include other eligible commercial health insurance [4][41] - The results of the tenth batch of national drug procurement were announced, with 62 drugs successfully procured amid intense competition, leading to instances of low bidding [4][55] - The report suggests continuous attention to the innovative drug and device sector, particularly focusing on companies with original innovation capabilities and those with an international perspective [9][110] Industry Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index increased by 0.67%, ranking 28th among 31 primary industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.42% [4][26] - Sub-industries such as offline pharmacies and medical research outsourcing saw significant gains of 3.75% and 3.36%, respectively, while other biological products and chemical preparations experienced declines of 3.30% and 2.46% [4][26] Valuation - As of December 13, 2024, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry's PE (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) was 27.86x, slightly up from 27.83x in the previous period, and remains below the average [5][33] - The top three sub-industries in terms of PE (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) are diagnostic services (93.83x), hospitals (42.92x), and medical consumables (35.23x), with the median at 29.67x, while pharmaceutical distribution has the lowest valuation at 17.38x [5][33] Important Industry News - The National Medical Security Bureau and the National Health Commission issued a notice to improve the centralized procurement and execution mechanisms for medicines and medical consumables, aiming to enhance the benefits for more patients [50][51] - The Shanghai Municipal Government has established a 10 billion yuan biopharmaceutical industry merger and acquisition fund as part of its action plan for 2025-2027 [4][59] Company Dynamics - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to support its international business development [4][79] - The report notes significant shareholder net reductions totaling 39.15 billion yuan across 20 listed companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, with only two companies seeing slight increases [4][104]