2025 年 7 月 21 日 证券研究报告 行业周报 行业评级： | 报告期：2025.7.7-2025.7.20 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 评级变动 | 维持评级 | 行业走势： 分析师： huchenxi@gwgsc.com 执业证书编号：S0200518090001 联系电话：010-68085205 分析师 魏钰琪 weiyuqi@gwgsc.com 执业证书编号：S0200525060001 联系电话：010-68099389 2 号院 1 号楼中国长城资产大厦 16 层 医药生物行业双周报 2025 年第 15 期总第 138 期 《2024 年全国医疗保障事业发展统计公报》发布 第十一批集采规则优化 行业回顾 本报告期医药生物行业指数涨幅为 5.89%，在申万 31 个一级行业中 位居第 3，跑赢沪深 300 指数（1.92%）。从子行业来看，医疗研发 外包、化学制剂涨幅居前，涨幅分别为 13.94%、8.43%；线下药店跌 幅居前，跌幅为 3.91%。 估值方面，截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日，医药生物行业 PE（TTM 整体法， 剔除负值）为 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" and the rating has been maintained [2] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index increased by 5.30%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 3.52% during the reporting period [3][14] - The PE ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as of July 4, 2025, is 28.52x, up from 27.28x in the previous period, indicating an upward trend in valuation [3][19] - Notable sub-industries include "Other Biological Products" and "Medical R&D Outsourcing," which saw increases of 11.20% and 9.37% respectively, while "Medical Equipment" and "Blood Products" lagged with increases of only 0.98% [3][14] Industry Trends - The report highlights significant policy measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission aimed at supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [5][6] - The introduction of a commercial health insurance innovative drug directory is a key breakthrough, facilitating better pricing and reimbursement mechanisms for high-value drugs [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the innovative drug industry chain, particularly focusing on platform pharmaceutical companies, clinical CROs, and high-barrier CDMOs [6] Important Industry News - The approval of several innovative drugs, including "ZEGFROVY" by Dize Pharmaceutical and "TQG203" by Zhengda Tianqing, marks significant advancements in the industry [41][42][46] - The report notes that the global number of hemophilia patients is expected to increase by 25% by 2025, highlighting the growing market for innovative treatments [42] - The approval of "Mastrudep" by Innovent Biologics for weight management in adults showcases the expanding therapeutic applications of GLP-1R/GCGR dual agonists [49][50] Investment Recommendations - Continuous attention is recommended for the innovative drug industry chain, particularly for companies that can navigate the new dual directory system and have international expansion capabilities [6] - The report suggests that the recent policy changes and the successful IPO of a biotech company signal a positive outlook for the innovative drug sector [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" and the rating has been maintained [2] Core Views - The investment value of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is highlighted due to accelerated review and approval processes for innovative drugs, along with optimized listing standards [4][6] - Recent policies from the NMPA and CDE are expected to significantly shorten the development cycle for innovative drugs and alleviate cash flow pressures for biotech companies [7][24] Industry Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index experienced a decline of 3.01%, ranking 17th among 31 primary industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index which fell by 0.71% [5][15] - The PE ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) for the industry as of June 20, 2025, is 27.28x, down from 28.24x in the previous period, indicating a downward trend in valuation [19][21] Important Industry News - The NMPA has released a draft for optimizing the review and approval of clinical trials for innovative drugs, aiming to complete reviews within 30 working days for eligible applications [24][25] - The CDE's annual report on new drug registration clinical trials indicates a steady increase in clinical trials, particularly in oncology and autoimmune disease areas, reflecting a positive trend in drug development [34][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with clear clinical value and strong commercialization capabilities, as well as CXO companies with international potential, to capitalize on valuation recovery opportunities driven by policy catalysts [7][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [3][8]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the NSCLC small molecule innovative drug sector, possessing both second and third generation ALK-TKIs, with significant advancements in its clinical pipeline [3][17]. - The commercial value of the second generation ALK-TKI is about to be realized, while the third generation ALK-TKI is progressing well in clinical trials [4][60]. - The company has multiple early-stage research projects that have achieved significant milestones, ensuring sustainable development [3][18]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on NSCLC Small Molecule Innovative Drugs - The company specializes in the independent research and development of small molecule innovative drugs, with a pipeline that includes various tumor indications and urgent clinical needs [3][17]. - It is the first domestic company to have both second and third generation ALK-TKIs [3][17]. - As of the 2024 report, the company has 22 proprietary research pipelines, all classified as new drugs [17][18]. Section 2: Commercial Value of ALK-TKIs - The second generation ALK-TKI SY-707 is nearing commercialization, with its NDA accepted by NMPA [4][55]. - The third generation ALK-TKI SY-3505 is the fastest progressing domestic option, with ongoing key clinical trials [4][58]. - The ALK-TKI market in China is dominated by second generation products, which are expected to account for 67.33% of the market by 2024 [60]. Section 3: SY-5007 and RET-TKI Development - SY-5007 is a high-selectivity RET-TKI that is currently in phase III clinical trials, showing promising efficacy and safety [6][22]. - It is the only domestic selective RET-TKI that has entered phase III trials globally, providing a significant competitive edge [6][22]. Section 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to generate revenues of 0.59 billion, 1.43 billion, and 2.87 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with net losses expected to decrease slightly over the same period [7][10]. - The total equity value of the company is estimated at 6.614 billion RMB based on DCF modeling [7][8].

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Positive [2] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index increased by 3.36%, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.21% [5][17] - The valuation of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as of June 6, 2025, is 28.24x (TTM, excluding negative values), up from 27.60x in the previous period, indicating an upward trend but still below the average [5][23] - Notable sub-industry performance includes chemical preparations and other biological products, with increases of 5.77% and 4.68% respectively, while offline pharmacies saw a decline of 1.15% [5][17] Industry Review - The report highlights three major investment opportunities: 1) Companies with dual-antibody/multi-antibody technology platforms that have differentiated target design capabilities and clinical advancement efficiency are likely to attract international giants [9] 2) Areas with unmet clinical needs, such as advanced liver cancer and non-small cell lung cancer, are promising for dual-antibody therapy development [9] 3) Potential license-out candidates, as domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies continue to engage in global collaborations [9] Important Industry News - CDE launched the "Star Plan" to encourage the development of pediatric anti-cancer drugs, addressing significant unmet clinical needs in this area [7][32] - Alcon's dry eye medication "Tryptyr" received FDA approval, marking it as the first of its kind globally [39] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical's third-generation EGFR-TKI "Amivantamab" was approved in the UK for first-line treatment of NSCLC, becoming the first domestically developed EGFR-TKI approved overseas [42] - BMS and BioNTech entered a collaboration for the dual-antibody candidate BNT327, with an upfront payment of $1.5 billion and potential milestone payments of $7.6 billion [51] Company Dynamics - Stone Pharmaceutical is negotiating three potential deals totaling $5 billion, involving several products including EGFR ADCs [49] - BMS's "Rotecip" was approved for treating lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, marking a significant innovation in this therapeutic area [45] - AbbVie’s JAK inhibitor "Upadacitinib" was approved for treating giant cell arteritis, becoming the first approved treatment for this condition in China [48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" and the rating has been maintained [2] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index increased by 3.36%, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 0.21% [5][17] - The valuation of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as of June 6, 2025, is 28.24x (TTM overall method, excluding negative values), which is an increase from 27.60x in the previous period and is below the average [5][23] - Key sub-industries with the highest PE ratios include vaccines (53.47x), hospitals (37.48x), and medical devices (33.47x), while pharmaceutical distribution has the lowest valuation at 15.43x [5][23] Industry Review - The report highlights three major investment opportunities: 1. Companies with dual-antibody/multi-antibody technology platforms that have differentiated target design capabilities and clinical advancement efficiency are likely to attract international giants [9] 2. Areas with unmet clinical needs, such as advanced liver cancer and non-small cell lung cancer, are promising for dual-antibody therapy layouts [9] 3. Potential license-out candidates, where domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies are likely to engage in global collaborations [9] Important Industry News - Alcon's dry eye medication "Tryptyr (Acoltremon eye drops)" has been approved by the US FDA, marking it as the first of its kind globally [39] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical's third-generation EGFR-TKI "Amivantamab" has been approved in the UK for first-line treatment of NSCLC, making it the first domestically produced EGFR-TKI approved overseas [42] - BMS and BioNTech have entered into a collaboration for the dual-antibody "BNT327," with an upfront payment of $1.5 billion and milestone payments totaling $7.6 billion [51] Company Dynamics - The report indicates that 38 listed companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a net reduction in shareholder holdings amounting to 1.128 billion yuan, with 4 companies increasing holdings by 14 million yuan and 34 companies reducing holdings by 1.142 billion yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" and the rating has been maintained [2] Core Views - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index increased by 3.08%, ranking third among 31 primary industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 0.94% [5][17] - The report highlights the acceleration of internationalization of innovative drugs, with a focus on two main directions: the global multi-center clinical capabilities and differentiated technology platforms, as well as short-term opportunities driven by ASCO data [8][9] Industry Performance - The valuation of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as of May 23, 2025, is a PE (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) of 27.60x, up from 26.77x in the previous period, indicating an upward trend but still below the average [22] - The top three sub-industries in terms of PE are vaccines (52.08x), hospitals (37.38x), and medical devices (33.40x), while the lowest valuation is in pharmaceutical distribution (15.18x) [22] Important Industry News - The CDE released guidelines for clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease drugs, aiming to provide technical standards for drug development [27] - AbbVie’s c-Met ADC "Teliso-V" received FDA approval, marking it as the first of its kind globally [28] - The report mentions significant collaborations, such as Pfizer's partnership with 3SBio for a PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, valued at over $6 billion [8][51] Company Dynamics - Hengrui Medicine officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with an IPO price of HKD 44.05 per share, achieving a market capitalization of over HKD 290 billion [44][45] - The report notes that 35 listed companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a net reduction in shareholder holdings amounting to CNY 1.336 billion during the reporting period [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" and the rating has been maintained [2] Core Views - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index increased by 3.08%, ranking third among 31 primary industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 0.94% [5][17] - The report highlights the acceleration of internationalization of innovative drugs, with a focus on two main directions: the global multi-center clinical capabilities and differentiated technology platforms, as well as short-term opportunities driven by ASCO data [8][9] Industry Performance - The valuation of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as of May 23, 2025, is a PE (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) of 27.60x, up from 26.77x in the previous period, indicating an upward trend but still below the average [22] - The top three sub-industries in terms of PE are vaccines (52.08x), hospitals (37.38x), and medical devices (33.40x), while the lowest valuation is in pharmaceutical circulation (15.18x) [22] Important Industry News - The CDE released guidelines for clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease drugs to provide technical standards for scientific research and evaluation [27] - AbbVie’s c-Met ADC "Teliso-V" received FDA approval, marking it as the first of its kind globally [28] - The report mentions significant collaborations, such as Pfizer's partnership with 3SBio for a PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, valued at over $6 billion [8][51] Company Dynamics - Hengrui Medicine officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with an IPO price of HKD 44.05 per share, achieving a market capitalization of over HKD 290 billion [44][45] - The report notes that 35 listed companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a net reduction in shareholder holdings amounting to CNY 1.336 billion during the reporting period [5]

Policy Framework - The central bank implements a policy framework of "moderate overall easing + precise structural support + market expectation management" to stabilize the market[2] - A 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut releases 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, alongside reductions in reverse repurchase rates and other loan rates[2] Structural Adjustments - The loan quota for technological innovation is expanded by 60% to 800 billion yuan, with a new risk-sharing mechanism for tech bonds introduced[6] - The deposit reserve ratio for auto finance and leasing companies is reduced to 0%, directly stimulating credit issuance in the automotive sector[6] Risk Management - The financial regulatory authority focuses on "risk prevention" and "transformation promotion" through a four-dimensional policy layout, including a financing coordination mechanism in the real estate sector[9] - A total of 6.7 trillion yuan in loans has been approved to support the delivery of over 16 million residential units[9] Capital Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) promotes reforms in the capital market to stabilize expectations and enhance functionality, including a 10% reduction in stock risk factors to release insurance capital allocation space[9] - New long-term investment trials worth 60 billion yuan are introduced to support insurance funds entering the market[9] Economic Support Measures - A financing combination for small and micro enterprises includes a no-repayment extension of 4.4 trillion yuan, aimed at increasing supply, reducing costs, and improving efficiency[9] - Export credit insurance coverage is increased by 15.3%, alongside innovations in domestic trade insurance and cross-border e-commerce insurance[9] Systemic Financial Ecosystem - The policy framework creates a closed loop from monetary supply to capital formation, supporting a full-cycle service ecosystem for technological innovation[11] - The financial governance model is transitioning from "administrative intervention" to "rule-based governance," enhancing market stability mechanisms[11] Risk Alerts - Potential risks include demand-side constraints on monetary policy effectiveness, unexpected adjustments in the real estate market, and geopolitical external shocks[12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4][9] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 544.47 million yuan in 2024, representing an 11.18% year-on-year increase. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase to 169 million yuan, a 29.61% year-on-year growth [4][5] - The company's profitability is on a recovery trend, with a significant increase in net profit for the first quarter of 2025, reaching 12 million yuan, a 226.47% year-on-year increase [4][5] - The drug discovery segment continues to grow steadily, while the commercialization segment has experienced rapid expansion, contributing significantly to revenue growth [5][6] - The company has successfully launched its AI-enabled platform DiOrion, which is expected to enhance drug discovery efficiency and innovation capabilities [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 544.47 million yuan, with a projected revenue of 727.57 million yuan for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 33.63% [11] - The net profit for 2024 was 17.08 million yuan, with projections of 40.42 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a substantial growth rate of 136.61% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.12 yuan in 2024 to 0.29 yuan in 2025 [11] Business Segments Overview - The drug discovery segment generated 317 million yuan in revenue in 2024, accounting for 58.14% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 7.97% [5] - The commercialization segment achieved a revenue of 165 million yuan, growing by 51.02% year-on-year, indicating its role as a key driver of revenue growth [5] - The CRO/CDMO active client base grew to 399, a 99.50% increase year-on-year, showcasing effective client expansion efforts [6] R&D and Technological Advancements - The company invested 47 million yuan in R&D in 2024, a 26.58% increase from the previous year, with R&D expenses accounting for 8.68% of total revenue [7] - The DiOrion platform, which integrates generative AI capabilities, is expected to significantly enhance the company's drug discovery processes [7][8]