Group 1: Market Overview - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, significantly reducing risk aversion, but expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, leading to fluctuations in gold prices[1] - On November 29, the Shanghai gold futures price fell by 1.45% to 618.80 CNY/gram, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 1.63% to 2673.90 USD/ounce[1] - Gold T+D spot prices decreased by 1.39% to 614.93 CNY/gram, and London gold spot prices fell by 2.41% to 2650.33 USD/ounce[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. October core PCE price index rose to 2.8%, matching expectations and marking the highest level since April[22] - U.S. October durable goods orders increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.5% but higher than the previous -0.7%[25] - The Eurozone's November harmonized CPI rose to 2.3%, exceeding the European Central Bank's target of 2%[26] Group 3: Market Trends - The gold market is expected to face downward pressure this week due to anticipated strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, which may temper rate cut expectations for next year[2] - Despite current economic resilience in the U.S. and weakness in Europe, geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East may continue to support gold prices in the medium to long term[2] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) rose significantly by 17.60 USD/ounce to 2.05 USD/ounce, while the Shanghai gold basis slightly decreased by 0.34 CNY/gram[9]

Manufacturing Sector Insights - In November 2024, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in manufacturing sentiment[2] - The New Orders Index within the manufacturing PMI reached 50.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, marking its first entry into the expansion zone in nearly seven months, significantly contributing to the overall PMI improvement[3] - The Production Index increased to 52.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting a boost in manufacturing output driven by improved market demand[4] Economic Policy Impact - The positive trends in manufacturing are attributed to the effectiveness of existing and new economic policies, including a 150 billion yuan special bond to support durable goods and tax reductions in the real estate sector[4] - High-frequency data indicates strong export performance, contributing to the demand side of manufacturing[4] - The Production Expectations Index rose to 54.7%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating growing confidence among manufacturers regarding future market conditions[8] Price and Demand Dynamics - The Ex-factory Price Index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 47.7%, while the Purchasing Price Index dropped by 3.6 percentage points to 49.8%, entering the contraction zone, reflecting downward pressure from international oil prices and domestic raw material costs[8] - Over 60% of enterprises reported insufficient demand, suggesting that the overall economic recovery remains moderate despite the PMI increase[8] Service and Construction Sector Performance - The Non-Manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.0%, with the Services PMI at 50.1%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector[9] - The Construction PMI fell to 49.7%, down 0.7 percentage points, entering the contraction zone for the first time since March 2020, primarily due to ongoing low real estate investment activities[9] Future Outlook - The December manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in the expansion zone at around 50.4%, indicating a significant improvement in macroeconomic conditions compared to Q3[10] - The forecast for Q4 GDP growth is approximately 5.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from Q3, supporting the annual growth target of around 5.0%[10] - The sustainability of the economic recovery hinges on the real estate market stabilizing and potential changes in the external trade environment in 2025[11][13]

1 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | | 政策效果初步显现 | 量价指标边际改善 | | | | | | | | ——2024 年 10 月房地产行业运行情况报告 分析师 唐晓琳 | 核心观点： 价格及销售表现：10 月 70 城二手住宅价格和新建商品住宅价格环比跌幅出现不同程度收窄，其中 一线城市二手房价格迎来强势逆转，具有积极的信号意义。销售方面，10 月全国商品房销售数据 同比降幅显著收窄，且十一假期后 30 城日均销售套数大体稳定在 3000 套以上水平，显示政策释 放"止跌回稳"信号后，市场出现积极变化。 投资端表现：10 月房地产开发投资完成额降幅有所扩大，但房地产开发资金来源降幅有所收窄， 主要受销售端企稳回升支撑，定金及预收款和个人按揭贷款两项同比降幅显著收窄；施工方面， 10 月三项开工数据同比均呈双位数下降，其中新开工和施工面积降幅出现不同程度扩大；土地市 场方面也并不乐观，10 月土地成交面积同比双位数下降，对应成 ...

Group 1: LPR Rate Announcement - The new LPR rates announced on November 20, 2024, are 3.10% for the 1-year term and 3.60% for the 5-year term, unchanged from the previous month[2]. - The LPR rates remained stable after a significant reduction of 25 basis points in October, aligning with market expectations[3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The stability in LPR rates is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates following the September rate cut, which indicated that November rates would likely remain steady[3]. - The macroeconomic environment showed improvement in October, with key economic indicators reflecting a recovery, particularly in the real estate market[3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Economic activity is expected to continue its upward trend until the end of the year, with stable policy interest rates and LPR rates likely to remain unchanged[4]. - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance in 2025, with potential for rate cuts and adjustments to LPR rates depending on economic conditions[4].

Revenue Insights - In October, general public budget revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.0 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Tax revenue grew by 1.8%, marking the first year-on-year positive growth this year, while non-tax revenue surged by 39.6%, up from 25.2% in the previous month[1] - Among the four major tax categories, VAT revenue's year-on-year decline narrowed significantly by 10.9 percentage points to -1.2%, while consumption tax revenue rebounded to 10.2% from -16.3%[2] Tax Performance - Personal income tax revenue turned positive at 5.6%, recovering from a previous decline of -1.8%, driven by reduced impacts from last year's tax cuts and increased second-hand housing transactions[2] - Stamp duty revenue rose by 25.9%, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 152.5%, attributed to enhanced market activity following new financing tools introduced by the central bank[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 10.4% year-on-year in October, accelerating by 5.2 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Infrastructure spending saw a significant increase of 29.3%, up by 25.8 percentage points, indicating a strong focus on growth stabilization[6] - Social security and employment expenditure rose by 16.0%, reflecting increased support for employment policies[6] Fund Revenue and Debt Management - Government fund revenue decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 4.2 percentage points, with land transfer revenue down by 10.5%[7] - The government fund expenditure surged by 47.9%, indicating a strong response to growth stabilization policies[7] - The recent approval of an additional 60 billion yuan in local government debt limits aims to alleviate fiscal pressure and support growth initiatives[9]

Economic Overview - In October, the industrial added value increased by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in September[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year in October, a significant increase from 3.2% in September[1] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.4% from January to October, unchanged from the previous period[1] Industrial Production - The manufacturing added value rose by 5.4% year-on-year in October, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of acceleration[3] - The power, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a decline in growth rate from 10.1% to 5.4% due to a drop in electricity generation growth[3] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.4%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 4.1 percentage points[5] Consumer Spending - The significant increase in retail sales was driven by policies supporting durable goods, with automotive retail sales up 3.7% and home appliance sales soaring by 39.2% year-on-year[7] - The "Double Eleven" pre-sale event started 10 days earlier than last year, contributing to the retail sales growth in October[7] - Service retail sales from January to October grew by 6.5%, indicating a stronger performance compared to the overall retail sales growth of 3.5%[8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth remained stable at 3.4% year-on-year for the first ten months, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investment increases[11] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 4.3% year-on-year, ending a six-month decline, with a notable increase of 5.8% in October alone[12] - Manufacturing investment saw a year-on-year growth of 10.0% in October, marking a return to double-digit growth for the first time in seven months[14] Future Outlook - GDP growth is projected to reach approximately 5.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, ensuring the annual target of around 5.0% is met[18] - The real estate investment decline is expected to narrow due to accelerated loan disbursements for "white list" projects, with a forecasted annual decline of around -9.0%[16] - Continued implementation of growth-supporting policies is anticipated to enhance consumer confidence and spending in the coming months[9]

1 东方金诚宏观研究 美国 10 月 CPI 符合预期，12 月进一步降息基本确认 ——美国10月CPI数据简评 研究发展部高级副总监白雪 事件： 11 月 13 日周三，美国劳工统计局公布的 10 月份美国名义与核心 CPI 环比、同比增幅数 据均符合市场预期。其中，名义 CPI 同比增长 2.6%，较 9 月前值 2.4%抬升 0.2 个百分点，是 自今年 3 月份以来首次出现同比加速增长。名义 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.3% 且同比增 3.3%，都持平前值。 解读如下： 10 月美国 CPI 同比增速回升 0.2 个百分点至 2.6%，主因能源价格对通胀下行的贡献减 弱。10 月能源价格同比上涨 1.9 个百分点至-4.9%，同比降幅有所收窄。其中，汽油价格同 比上升 3.1 个百分点至-12.2%。背后的主要原因是地缘风险减弱，导致国际油价略有反弹— —10 月布伦特原油现货均价略有回升至 75.8 美元/桶。不过往后看，我们预计，在全球经 济，尤其是美欧经济放缓的背景下，能源价格仍将趋于回落。可以看到，10 月美国 ISM 制造 业 PMI 续降至 46.5，制造业景气 ...

Price Movements - On November 8, 2024, the Shanghai gold futures price fell by 2.26% to 615.48 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 1.97% to 2691.70 USD/oz[2] - Gold T+D spot price decreased by 2.31% to 612.87 CNY/g, and London gold spot price fell by 1.89% to 2684.04 USD/oz[2] - The overall adjustment in gold prices was significant, with a notable recovery to around 2700 USD/oz following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut[2] Market Trends - The market anticipates a weak fluctuation in gold prices for the week of November 11, 2024, due to profit-taking pressures from the "Trump trade" and upcoming U.S. inflation data[3] - The U.S. October CPI and PPI are expected to remain sticky, potentially leading to a decline in gold prices[3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for October reached 56.0, the highest since July 2022, indicating economic resilience[15] - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% on November 8, 2024, aligning with market expectations[20] Currency and Inflation Expectations - Following Trump's election victory, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.60% to 104.95, driven by expectations of fiscal expansion[21] - The market's inflation expectations increased, leading to a rise in the 10-year TIPS yield to 1.95%, despite the Fed's rate cut[24] ETF and Trading Volumes - Global SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 11.78 tons to 876.85 tons, indicating a continued decline in investor interest[11] - The cumulative trading volume for gold T+D rose by 2.82% to 165,700 kg over the past week[11]

Loan and Financing Data - In October 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 500 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline[1] - The total social financing scale in October was 1.3958 trillion, down 448.3 billion year-on-year[1] - The M2 money supply grew by 7.5% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Economic Implications - The decrease in new loans is primarily attributed to intensified debt reduction policies, with local government financing platforms repaying or replacing existing loans[2] - Excluding the impact of debt reduction policies and last year's high base for government bond financing, the actual data for new loans and social financing in October shows improvement, indicating increased financial support for the real economy following recent monetary policy adjustments[2] Future Outlook - A peak in government bond issuance is expected in the last two months of the year, with a potential 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion in long-term funds into the banking system[3] - New loan growth is anticipated to remain robust, particularly with accelerated disbursement of loans for "white list" real estate projects[3] Sector-Specific Insights - Corporate loans showed weakness, with new medium- and long-term loans at 170 billion, down 212.8 billion year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline[5] - Residential loans improved, with new short-term loans increasing by 49 billion, up 154.3 billion year-on-year, driven by supportive policies in the real estate sector[7] Social Financing Trends - In October, total social financing decreased by 448.3 billion year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in government bond financing, which fell by 514.2 billion year-on-year[8] - The stock of social financing grew at a record low of 7.8%, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the financing environment[8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase slowing to 0.3% from 0.4% in the previous month, primarily due to weaker food and energy prices[2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained weak at 0.0% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase rebounding to 0.2%, still below 1.0%[2] - Consumer demand is currently insufficient, contributing to the low price levels, with the consumer confidence index at 85.7, down for six consecutive months[8] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI showed signs of stabilization, with a month-on-month decline narrowing to -0.1%, while the year-on-year decline expanded to -2.9%[3] - The decline in PPI is expected to narrow to approximately -2.5% in November and -2.0% in December, driven by a series of incremental policies and a lower year-on-year base[3] - The prices of major commodities like steel, cement, and copper have increased since late September, contributing to the stabilization of PPI[3] Group 3: Food and Non-Food Prices - In October, food prices fell by 1.2% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth slowing to 2.9%, reducing their contribution to overall CPI[5] - Non-food prices remained flat month-on-month at 0.0%, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, primarily influenced by falling energy prices[6] - The average gasoline price decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, contributing to the overall decline in energy prices[7]