Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - and medium - term, and a slightly weak oscillatory trend intraday. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is stable, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [1]. - Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the iron ore fundamentals are running stably. The high - valued ore price is still prone to pressure, but the positive factor is the inventory replenishment expectation before the holiday. It is expected that the ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level, and the performance of steel prices should be monitored [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is slightly weak oscillatory. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the stable fundamentals and high - level oscillation of the ore price [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals are running stably. Under the influence of production restrictions, the short - term terminal consumption of ore has declined, and the subsequent recovery space of steel mill profits is limited. The positive factor is the fermentation of inventory replenishment expectation before the holiday, which supports the ore price. - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has declined, and the overseas miners' shipments have dropped significantly, mainly due to the decline in Brazil's shipments, which is not sustainable. Moreover, the domestic ore supply is recovering, and the ore supply is running stably [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/09/08 | -124.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/05 | -122.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/04 | -121.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/03 | -120.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/02 | -117.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 （一）能源商品 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/09/08 2025/09/05 2025/09/04 2025 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report is bullish on both gold and copper in the short - and medium - term, with an intraday view of being range - bound but biased towards the upside [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: London gold has reached the $3600 mark, and Shanghai gold's main contract has touched the 830 mark, approaching the annual high. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the external gold price has risen from below $3400 to above the $3600 mark, breaking through the high of the shock range since the second quarter of this year. The domestic Shanghai gold has risen from 775 yuan to the 830 - yuan mark [3]. - **Core Logic**: The weak US non - farm payroll data in August has increased market expectations of Fed rate cuts. The market's expectation has shifted from a 50 - basis - point cut this year to a 75 - basis - point cut. Also, as the US economic downturn expectation rises, the decline in US Treasury yields is beneficial to the gold price [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices showed a narrow - range shock yesterday, and the open interest continued to decline [4]. - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, the Fed's rate cut in September is approaching, and the market expects a more than 50% probability of three rate cuts this year after the non - farm data was released. However, the disappointing non - farm data has increased the expectation of an economic downturn, which is negative for copper prices. On the industrial side, China has entered the peak season, which supports the futures price. With a strong domestic and weak external macro situation and the arrival of the industrial peak season, the futures price is expected to run strongly [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 观望情绪渐浓，焦煤震荡调整 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭窄幅震荡 | 备注： 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：9 月 8 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约维持震荡运行，夜盘报收于 1143.5 元/吨，持仓量小幅 下滑。本周 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日产为 69.3 万吨，环比减 6 万吨；焦炭日产 112.23 万吨，环 比降 1.62 万吨；铁水日产 228.84 万吨，环比降 11.29 万吨，供需数据符合市场的偏空预期。 然而，我们前期提示的"反内卷"政 ...

策略参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 核心逻辑：国内市场仍处于弱现实和强预期的博弈之中，中美关系变化对远期进口大豆采购节奏和进口成 本的影响，持续向豆粕市场传导，交易逻辑将向产业链弱现实回归。短期豆粕期价反弹承压，价格震荡偏 弱运行。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面变化不大，短流程钢厂减产导致螺纹产量有所回落，但旺季期间生产积极性未 退，供应料将维持相对高位。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频指标低位运行，且下游行业未 见好转，旺季需求改善存疑。总之，供需双弱局面下螺纹钢基本面弱稳运行，产业矛盾在累积，钢 价易承压运行，相对利好的旺季预期以及成本抬升，预计钢价延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表 现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏弱 | 宽幅震荡 | 中长期向上逻辑仍存，短期资金 止盈意愿上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市全天成交额 24631 亿元，较上日放量 1148 亿元。股 市成交金额从 3 万亿元回落至 2 万亿元的量级，说明短期内市场存在一定分歧。由于部分股票前期 涨幅较大，估值端提升较为明显，获利资金的止盈需求上升导致短线上股指出现技术性调整。中长期 来看，政策利 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货全天震荡整理。短期内国债期货上行动能与下行动能均有所不足。近期股市 阶段回调，股市风险偏好有所回落，对国债需求的抑制作用有所减弱， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run in a relatively strong manner, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias respectively [1][5]. - Although the supply - demand structure of methanol is weak, the rebound of coal futures prices on the previous Friday night supported the methanol 2601 contract to stabilize oscillatingly, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 品种晨会纪要 - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias, with a reference view of relatively strong operation. The core logic is that the rebound of coal futures prices leads to the oscillatory and slightly upward trend of methanol [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 - The supply pressure of domestic and foreign methanol is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. The domestic coal futures prices rose slightly on the previous Friday night, supporting the methanol 2601 contract to stabilize oscillatingly, with the futures price closing flat at 2403 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Monday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of last Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.65% to 16,225 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Monday [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry is still booming, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic, which provides demand - side support [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: Driven by the slight strengthening of Shanghai rubber futures on the night of last Friday, the synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.08% to 11,950 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Monday [7]. - **Core Logic**: With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro sentiment has improved. The downstream tire industry is still highly prosperous, the external sales of tires are good, and the domestic terminal auto market has strong production and sales, better than expected [7].