Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on stock index futures is that they will show a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. In the short - term, the upward momentum of the stock index has weakened, and it will enter an oscillation and consolidation phase without incremental policies. In the medium - term, the stock index is expected to rise [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Sections 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view on IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillation with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1461.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 173.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, and the policy - expectation trading is quite sufficient. Further rebound requires policy support from the Politburo meeting in July. The main logic of this stock index rebound is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year. Although the macro - economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the expectation of policy support in the second half of the year is still strong. Considering that the policy is expected to take effect in the third or fourth quarter, without incremental policies in the short - term, the previous optimistic expectations will gradually cool down, and the stock index will enter an oscillation and consolidation phase [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue its pressured operation, with short - term dollar index rebound being a negative factor for gold prices. Copper is expected to stabilize with short - term strength, supported by downstream replenishment and narrowing of refined - scrap spreads [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term view**: Downward [1] - **Mid - term view**: Sideways [1] - **Intraday view**: Weakly sideways [1] - **Reference view**: Sideways operation [1] - **Core logic**: Overnight gold price fluctuations intensified. The New York gold initially dropped to around $3330, then quickly rose to around $3380, followed by a pull - back. The dollar index showed a dip - rebound. Market speculation about Trump potentially firing Powell and subsequent denial led to market volatility. The short - term rebound of the dollar index is negative for gold prices [3]. Copper - **Short - term view**: Upward [1] - **Mid - term view**: Sideways [1] - **Intraday view**: Strongly sideways [1] - **Reference view**: Short - term strength [1] - **Core logic**: Since this week, copper prices have been oscillating around 78,000 yuan. The decline in Shanghai copper positions to below 500,000 contracts indicates reduced capital attention. Tariff impacts increase price uncertainty, causing short - term capital outflows. Downstream replenishment and narrowing of refined - scrap spreads support copper prices, and the narrowing LME import loss reflects an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 货币政策环境偏向宽松，但短期 降息可能性不高 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。随着近期央行公开市场操作净投放流动性，流动性紧张的 局面有所缓解。而且随着国债到期收益率接近政策利率，国债收益率 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美国生物燃料政策，美豆油 库存，国内大豆成本支撑， 供应节奏，油厂库存 棕榈 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 生物柴油属性，马棕产量和 出口，印尼出口，主产国关税 政策，国内 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 淡季特征未退，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面弱势运行，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，螺纹产量再度下降，供应有所收缩但依旧处于年 内高位，且品种吨钢利润较好，压力缓解有限。同时，螺纹需求季节性弱势，高频需求指标均走 弱，且位于近年来同期低位，淡季需求特征未退，弱势需求继续承压钢价。总之，螺纹钢基本面延 续季节性弱势，淡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The market for both coking coal and coke is dominated by strong expectations, with their futures prices likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the near term, and investors should continue to monitor domestic and international policies [5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the reference view is a volatile approach due to optimistic sentiment supporting a volatile rebound [1] - For coke 2509, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the reference view is a volatile approach as multiple factors lead to a volatile operation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - On July 16, the main coking coal contract closed at 897 points, down 1.48% intraday. The main contract's open interest was 562,000 lots, with a difference of + 24,254 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 911 yuan/ton [5] - Although the short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly and there is an expectation of marginal growth in supply in July, positive news such as the US delaying the tariff exemption period and domestic "anti - involution rectification" have improved market sentiment and driven up futures prices. Additionally, President Xi Jinping's remarks during an inspection in Shanxi have alleviated market bearish sentiment [5] Coke (J) - On July 16, the main coke contract closed at 1,494.5 yuan/ton, down 1.45% intraday. The main contract's open interest was 45,300 lots, with a difference of + 223 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and at Qingdao Port, it was 1,270 yuan/ton, up 3.25% from the previous week [7] - The improvement in the raw material atmosphere of coke has led to higher coking coal spot prices, increasing coking enterprises' losses and strengthening cost support, which has raised expectations of a price increase for coke. In the futures market, the supply and demand of coke have both declined, but strong expectations dominate the market. Since July, multiple positive news at home and abroad have led to a rebound of the main coke contract, and as prices rise, the market's long - short game intensifies [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗延续回落，但仍处于相对高位，且 钢厂盈利状况良好，需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑。同时，港口到货大幅回升，但矿商发运则是延续 偏弱态势，按船期推算后续到货仍将减量，海外矿石供应回落，而内矿生产同样趋弱，供应迎来收缩。 目前来看，供需双弱局面下矿石基本面弱稳运行，产业矛盾有限，但政策利好预期发酵，乐观情绪未 退，支撑矿价高位偏强运行，但估值已升至高位，需谨防交易逻辑切换至产业端。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | - ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡回调，不过全天呈现探底回升的走势。沪深京三市成交额 16350 亿元， 较上日放量 1541 亿元。目前股指反弹的主要逻辑是对下半年政策利好的预期，包括宏观需求托底预 期以及"反内卷"对相关行业利润率的提振。今年上半年 GDP 同比增速为 5.3%，整体上稳中有进， ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡运行 | 关税预期利好金价，美元反弹利 空金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美关税冲击后，铜价大幅下挫，关 注前期中枢支撑 | 说明： 参考观点：震荡运行 核心逻辑：昨天美国 6 月通胀小幅 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价震荡回落 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均有所走弱，建筑钢厂有所转产，螺纹产量环比下降，但依旧处于年内高位， 且品种吨钢利润较好，供应料难持续回落。同时，螺纹需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标均有所 ...