Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The iron ore price is expected to continue its high - level volatile trend, with the 2605 contract showing a wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between long and short factors [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "wide - range oscillation", with the core logic of the game between long and short factors leading to high - level oscillation of the ore price [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. Port inventories are rising at a high level, steel mill production is stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption is weakly stable. Steel mill profitability improvement is limited, so the weak demand pattern is hard to change, but pre - holiday restocking is relatively positive. Domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have both decreased month - on - month but are still at annual highs, with active overseas ore supply. Even though domestic ore supply has shrunk, the overall ore supply remains high. The price is under pressure due to weakening demand and high supply, but there are still structural contradictions in the spot market and pre - holiday restocking expectations, which create resistance to the downward movement [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are strong, strong, and oscillating upward respectively, with a recommendation of waiting and seeing. The core logic is that during the overseas Christmas and New Year holidays, the market trading atmosphere cools down. Also, after the US and Japanese central bank meetings, market liquidity recovers, the US dollar index is weak, and gold prices have risen this week. [1][3] - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillating, strong, and oscillating upward respectively, with a recommendation of waiting and seeing. The core logic is that overseas Christmas and New Year holidays lead to low market liquidity, and in China, there are year - end capital pressures and weak downstream procurement. The current high copper price is suppressing the real economy, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased significantly. [1][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term**: Strong [1] - **Medium - term**: Strong [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating upward [1] - **Reference View**: Wait and see [1] - **Core Logic**: This week, gold prices have risen, with New York gold breaking through $4500 and Shanghai gold breaking through 1000 yuan. After the US and Japanese central bank meetings, market liquidity recovers, and the weak US dollar index is beneficial to gold prices. During the overseas Christmas holiday, the domestic trading atmosphere weakens, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [3] Copper - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Strong [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating upward [1] - **Reference View**: Wait and see [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas Christmas and New Year holidays lead to low market liquidity. In China, there are year - end capital pressures and weak downstream procurement. The high copper price is suppressing the real economy, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased significantly. During overseas holidays, Shanghai copper continues to operate strongly, and there is a risk of short - term price decline due to long - position liquidation. Attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For both coking coal and coke in the 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall reference view is an "oscillation mindset". The core logic for coking coal is that the market is in a state of cautious wait - and - see, and it is operating at a low level; for coke, there are both long and short factors, resulting in low - level oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Supply - Demand Situation**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,140 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week. Towards the end of the year, there are more coal mine shutdowns in the main production areas, but they will gradually resume in January. Meanwhile, the import volume of Mongolian coal remains high, so there is insufficient positive news for coking coal supply. After the third round of coke price cuts, coking plants' production enthusiasm is limited, and the fundamentals of coking coal have not significantly improved. The futures are in low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the downstream winter storage and replenishment rhythm [5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Supply - Demand Situation**: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.18%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%. Currently, coke is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. However, downstream winter storage and replenishment and the expectation of anti - involution have driven coke futures to stop falling and oscillate. There is an expectation of steel mills' resumption of production in January, and attention should be paid to the subsequent downstream replenishment and production rhythm [6].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing. The Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is weak. The reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures had a small volatile correction yesterday. Due to the moderately loose monetary policy and the expected loose monetary environment next year, Treasury bond futures have strong support and have recently rebounded from the bottom. However, the current macro - economic data is resilient, so there is no strong urgency for a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term. Moreover, the supply - side pressure from the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in the first quarter restricts the upward rebound of Treasury bond futures, causing resistance to their further upward movement [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, oscillating stronger, and closing slightly higher. The price center shifted slightly up to 15,730 yuan/ton, closing with a 1.91% increase. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 55 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and the rubber price broke through the triangular range and formed an upward - breaking pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, oscillating and stabilizing. The price reached a high of 2,178 yuan/ton and a low of 2,150 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.00% increase. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 33 yuan/ton. Against the background of differences between bulls and bears, the methanol futures started an oscillating consolidation trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, oscillating stronger, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a high of 444.5 yuan/barrel and a low of 440.9 yuan/barrel, closing with a 0.02% increase. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has become prominent again, and the conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, posing a risk of restricted crude oil exports from Venezuela. The enhanced geopolitical premium supports the oil price, and the crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons or 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons with a 2.72% increase, and the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons with a 3.38% increase. In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in November 2025, a 6% decrease from October and a 46% increase from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a 26% increase year - on - year [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.31%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a 2.95% increase compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all had slight increases. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 0.24%. As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.0201 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 391,200 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a slight increase of 9,500 tons compared with the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of December 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 406, a slight week - on - week decrease of 8 and a decrease of 77 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.843 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.4 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant increase of 3.401 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory decreased slightly by 742,000 barrels week - on - week. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased slightly by 249,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was 94.8%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points. The average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil increased significantly week - on - week but decreased significantly compared with the November average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased significantly week - on - week and compared with the November average [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,100 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,730 yuan/ton | +80 yuan/ton | - 630 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,162 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 408.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 442.7 yuan/barrel | - 2.0 yuan/barrel | - 34.2 yuan/barrel | +1.6 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: Charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc [15][16][17]. - **Methanol**: Charts cover methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, etc [28][30][36]. - **Crude Oil**: Charts involve crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, etc [41][42][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, each stock index fluctuated and rose, with CSI 1000 and CSI 500 leading the gains. The total market turnover of the stock market was 192.18 billion yuan, an increase of 2.46 billion yuan from the previous day. In the medium - to - long term, the positive policy expectations and the trend of capital inflows together form the medium - to - long - term support for the stock index. Currently, positive policy expectations are gradually fermenting. With the appreciation of the RMB, a large number of relatively high - interest time deposits will mature next year, and their "reallocation" may bring a large amount of incremental funds into the stock market. In the short term, the liquidity of the capital market is tightening near the end of the year, policy incremental signals are not yet clear, and the stock index is approaching its previous high, which may cause short - term disturbances. In general, the stock index will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. For options, the current position PCR and implied volatility are both within the normal range, and a bull spread or ratio spread with a mild bullish view can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On December 25, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.26% to close at 3.107; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.19% to close at 4.766; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.17% to close at 4.840; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.18% to close at 4642.54; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.97% to close at 7579.38; 500ETF (SSE) rose 0.86% to close at 7.534; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 0.81% to close at 2.974; the GEM ETF rose 0.31% to close at 3.222; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.09% to close at 3.475; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.25% to close at 3032.84; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.07% to close at 1.42; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.15% to close at 1.38 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on December 25, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided, such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7][8]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 50ETF, the volatility chart of SSE 50ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [9][11][13][15][19]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 300ETF, the volatility chart of SSE 300ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [21][23][25][27][29][31]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SZSE 300ETF, the volatility chart of SZSE 300ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [34][36][38][40][42][45]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of the CSI 300 index, the volatility chart of CSI 300 index options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [46][48][50][52][54][56]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of the CSI 1000 index, the volatility chart of CSI 1000 index options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [59][62][63][64][66][68]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 500ETF, the volatility chart of SSE 500ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [73][75][77][79][81][83]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SZSE 500ETF, the volatility chart of SZSE 500ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [86][88][90][92][94][95]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of GEM ETF, the volatility chart of GEM ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [99][101][103][105][106][109]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of Shenzhen 100ETF, the volatility chart of Shenzhen 100ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [111][113][115][117][119][121]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of the SSE 50 index, the volatility chart of SSE 50 index options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [124][126][128][130][132][134]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of STAR 50ETF, the volatility chart of STAR 50ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [137][138][139][140][142][144]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of E Fund STAR 50ETF, the volatility chart of E Fund STAR 50ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [145][146][148][149].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, rebar supply is rising from a low level while demand is weakening, and the fundamentals are weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, but policy expectations and cost support are positive factors. The subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.03%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. At present, the demand for hot - rolled coil has improved, and supply is at a low level, so the supply - demand pattern has improved, providing price support. However, the demand resilience is questionable, and the inventory level is high, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.58%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakening while supply remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are weak. The ore price continues to be under pressure, but the unsolved structural contradiction in the spot market and the pre - holiday restocking expectation are positive factors, and there is resistance to the downward movement. The ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to November, 2.58 million urban old - fashioned residential areas across the country started renovation. 22 regions and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have completed the annual renovation plan, and the national planned number for the year is 2.5 million [7]. - From December 1st to 21st, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 19% and a 5% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 22.783 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers was 1.302 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 23% and a 13% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 28.067 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 788,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1% and a 3% increase compared with the same period last month, with a penetration rate of 60.6%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 12.26 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger car manufacturers was 782,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month, with a penetration rate of 60.1%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 14.538 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25% [8]. - As of December 24th, 4 steel enterprises announced the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and evaluation and monitoring, and 245 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,170 yuan, unchanged; the national average price was 3,327 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan, up 1 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,180 yuan, unchanged; the national average price was 3,295 yuan, up 1 yuan [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,950 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,110 yuan, unchanged [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 786 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis): The price was 777 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Ocean freight: The freight from Australia was 8.75 yuan, down 0.11 yuan; from Brazil, it was 23.57 yuan, down 0.26 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 107.05 yuan, down 0.10 yuan [10]. - Platts Index (CFR, 62%): The price was 107.30 yuan, down 0.50 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,127 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 502,388 lots, a decrease of 335,478 lots; the open interest was 1,581,839 lots, a decrease of 15,590 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,280 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 248,652 lots, a decrease of 114,812 lots; the open interest was 1,238,912 lots, an increase of 9,350 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 778.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.58%. The trading volume was 145,809 lots, a decrease of 70,468 lots; the open interest was 567,104 lots, an increase of 13,387 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - Steel inventory: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][17][19]. - Iron ore inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory and its monthly - on - monthly changes, seasonal inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mills and domestic mines [21][22][27]. - Steel mill production: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][33][38]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are weakly stable. The weekly output of rebar increased by 27,100 tons, and supply continues to rise but remains at a relatively low level. Demand continues to be weak, and the weekly apparent demand and daily high - frequency transactions have declined. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, but policy expectations and cost support are positive. It will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved, and the inventory decline has widened. The weekly output increased by 16,300 tons and is at a relatively low level this year. Demand is okay, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 87,600 tons, but the daily high - frequency transactions are at a low level. The demand resilience is questionable, and the inventory level is high. It is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [39]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The end - use consumption of ore is declining, and the daily average pig iron output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills have decreased. Supply remains at a high level. The ore price is under pressure, but the unsolved structural contradiction in the spot market and the pre - holiday restocking expectation are positive. It will continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 观望情绪较浓，煤焦低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 25 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1739 元/吨，日内录得 0.03%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.91 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +329 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1460 元/ 吨，周环比下跌 1.35%。当前，焦炭维持供需两弱格局，基本面未明显改 善，不过下游冬储补库和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌震荡，叠加 1 月后 钢厂存复产预期，关注后续下游补库和生产节奏。 焦煤：12 月 25 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1124 点，日内上涨 0.00%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.36 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+3101 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平。目 前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰 动再现，市场情绪由弱转强 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - side advantage of fuel oil has increased, and it is expected that the resistance for the continued rebound of the fuel oil futures contract will increase in the future [2][7] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance of Fuel Oil Futures 2603 Contract - Yesterday, the main 2603 contract of fuel oil futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in a volatile manner, and slightly closing lower. The intraday price center remained at around 2,480 yuan/ton, with the highest reaching 2,489 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 2,459 yuan/ton. The closing price slightly decreased by 0.08%. The positions decreased slightly by 1,744 lots to 237,224 lots, a decline of 0.73% [2] Changes in Long and Short Positions - The data of the top 20 seats in the long - short position ranking list of the exchange shows that the positions of the fuel oil futures 2603 contract showed a trend of long positions decreasing and short positions increasing. Among them, the long positions decreased by 2,265 lots to 158,948 lots; the short positions increased by 150 lots to 166,161 lots, resulting in a slight increase in the net short position to 7,213 lots [2] Changes in Long Positions of the Top 20 Seats - Among the top 20 long - side seats of the fuel oil futures 2603 contract, 9 seats reduced long positions. Among them, 5 seats reduced more than 1,000 lots, namely Guotai Junan Futures, Orient Futures, China Merchants Futures, Western Futures and Guolian Futures, with significant reductions of 3,521 lots, 1,544 lots, 1,066 lots, 1,621 lots and 1,352 lots respectively. In addition, 4 seats reduced long positions between 100 lots and 1,000 lots [3] Changes in Short Positions of the Top 20 Seats - Among the top 20 short - side seats, 11 seats increased short positions. 3 seats increased more than 1,000 lots, namely CITIC Futures, Orient Futures and Qiankun Futures, with significant increases of 1,535 lots, 2,077 lots and 3,028 lots respectively. 8 seats increased short positions between 100 lots and 1,000 lots [3] Multi - to - Short and Short - to - Long Operations - There were 2 seats that carried out multi - to - short operations, namely Guotai Junan Futures and Orient Futures. There were 3 seats that carried out short - to - long operations, namely Zheshang Futures, CITIC Construction Investment Futures and Shanghai Zhongqi Futures [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, with a reference view of "wait - and - see" for both [1] - For gold, short - term and medium - term trends are strong, and the intraday trend is oscillating upward; for copper, the short - term trend is oscillating, and the medium - term and intraday trends are oscillating upward [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Situation**: Yesterday, the gold price rose and then fell. Shanghai gold remained above the 1000 - yuan mark, and New York gold was above the 4500 - dollar mark [3] - **Driving Factors**: The short - term upward push of the gold price comes from the monetary policies of the US and Japanese central banks. Since the Sino - US summit in late October, the gold price has been under pressure and oscillating at a high level. Currently, the macro - economic easing promotes the general rise of assets, pushing the gold price to break through. During the overseas Christmas and New Year holidays, the domestic market may be cautious, and the gold price may show a high - level oscillation [3] Copper - **Price Situation**: Yesterday, the copper prices in both domestic and foreign markets rose and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai copper once reached the 96,000 - yuan mark, and LME copper once exceeded 12,200 dollars, hitting a record high. Then, due to the approaching Christmas holiday, the copper price fell from the high level. Shanghai copper once dropped to the 94,000 - yuan mark, and LME copper dropped to 12,000 dollars and then stabilized and rebounded [5] - **Driving Factors**: The Christmas and New Year holidays lead to light trading in the overseas market. In China, there are year - end capital pressure and tax settlement issues, and downstream purchasing willingness is extremely weak. The current high copper price inhibits the real economy, and the widening spot discount indicates weak demand. The market is in a special stage of "low liquidity + high sensitivity", and Shanghai copper will continue to oscillate at a high level before the holiday. Short - term attention should be paid to the support at the 95,000 - yuan mark of Shanghai copper [5]