期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 弱现实格局未变，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局有所变化，螺纹钢产量持续下降，供应延续收缩但旺季减产动能不强，整体降 幅不大，而库存相对偏高，利好效应有限。与此同时，节后螺纹需求如期改善 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：昨夜金价持续强势，纽约金和伦敦金逼近 4400 美元/盎 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 需求预期走弱，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗延续回落态势，且钢市产业矛盾缓解有 限，产业担忧未退，需求利好效应趋弱。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货偏高，且矿商发运也维持高位， 高矿价下海外矿石供应积极，叠加内矿供应恢复，供应压力不断增加。 ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 宽幅震荡 | 短期资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指震荡分化，上证 50 与沪深 300 震荡收涨，中证 500 与中证 1000 震荡收跌。 沪深京三 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 10 月 16 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多情绪回暖 能化震荡企稳 核心观点 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 原油：本周四国内原油期货 2512 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，期价最高涨至 449.8 元/桶，最低下跌至 441.6 元/ 桶，收盘时期价略微收涨 0.22%至 445.9 元/桶。美国联邦政府持续停 摆，特朗普再度发起贸易关税战，系统性风险发生，同时 OPEC+产油 国继续增产，叠加中东巴以冲突或结束，地缘溢价回吐，预计后市国 内原油期货 2512 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡企稳， 略微反弹的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 16 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 期货研究报告 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 今日各股指震荡分化，上证 50 与沪深 300 震荡收涨，中证 500 与中 证 1000 震荡收跌。沪深京三市全天成交额 19487 亿元，较上日缩量 1417 亿 元。最新公布的 9 月金融数据显示，居民部门的融资需求仍偏弱，内需有效 需求不足的问题仍存，叠加外部关税因素的扰动仍存，未来政策面稳定宏观 基本面的预期较强，政策利好预期构成股指的中长期支撑力量。不过短期来 看，11 月之前外部不确定性风险的扰动仍存，叠加股票估值端提升明显， 投资者落袋为安的意愿上升，短线存在技术性调整压力。总的来说，后续行 情走势取决于止盈情绪与政策利好预期相互博弈的节奏变化，短期内股指 预计保持宽幅震荡为主。 目前期权隐含波动率保持相对平稳，考虑到股指中长线向上， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.16%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are poor, industrial contradictions are accumulating, the pressure of inventory reduction under weak demand is relatively large, and the cost - support advantage is also weakening. It is expected that the steel price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [6]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated. It recorded a daily decline of 0.19%. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil is high, while there are concerns about demand. Industrial contradictions are continuously accumulating, the inventory reduction is large, and the price of hot - rolled coil is under pressure and running weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.90%. At present, the supply of ore has increased, while industrial concerns have fermented, and the positive factors for ore demand are weakening. The fundamentals of the ore market are starting to weaken, and the over - valued ore price will be under pressure and run weakly. However, due to the high rigid demand for ore, there is resistance to the downward movement. The subsequent downward trend depends on the steel mills' production cuts, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - According to the VAT invoice data, in the first three quarters of this year, the equipment renewal of national enterprises accelerated. The procurement amount of machinery and equipment by industrial enterprises increased by 9.4% year - on - year. Among them, high - tech manufacturing maintained a good growth momentum, with the procurement amount of machinery and equipment increasing by 14% year - on - year. The procurement amount of digital equipment by national enterprises increased by 18.6% year - on - year [8]. - In September 2025, the balance of the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the increment of social financing scale was strong, with a cumulative increase of 30.09 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.42 trillion yuan [9]. - Shaanxi Province issued a notice on strengthening measures to prevent and contain coal mine accidents in the fourth quarter to strengthen coal mine safety prevention in the fourth quarter [10]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160 yuan, 3,120 yuan, and 3,212 yuan respectively. The prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,333 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 120 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 yuan [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 774 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 807 yuan. The sea freight from Australia was 10.35 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.61 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 105.68 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 106.20 yuan [11]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,049 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.16%. The trading volume was 1,036,367 lots, an increase of 18,231 lots, and the open interest was 2,039,387 lots, a decrease of 12,158 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,219 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.19%. The trading volume was 641,702 lots, an increase of 140,505 lots, and the open interest was 1,479,995 lots, an increase of 10,590 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 773.5 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.90%. The trading volume was 398,551 lots, an increase of 92,790 lots, and the open interest was 535,578 lots, an increase of 27,213 lots [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel - mill inventory), and steel mill production (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and electric furnace operating rate) [15][22][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, during the holiday, both supply and demand weakened. The weekly output of construction steel mills decreased by 3.62 tons, and the demand was also weak. With high inventory and weak cost support, it is expected that the steel price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. The weekly output decreased by 1.40 tons but remained at a high level within the year. The demand during the holiday was weak, and there are concerns about future demand. The price is under pressure and running weakly [37]. - For iron ore, the supply has increased, while the positive factors for demand are weakening. The high - valued ore price will be under pressure and run weakly, but there is resistance to the downward movement. The subsequent downward trend depends on the steel mills' production cuts [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper price dropped in the afternoon and then rebounded in a V - shape, with little change in the position. The main contract price fluctuated around 85,000. The short - term market digested the negative impact of Sino - US trade friction, while the medium - and long - term supply contraction and macro - easing logic remained unchanged. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 85,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price increased in position and rose. The main contract price approached the 21,000 mark at the end of the session. The non - ferrous metals as a whole fluctuated, and the aluminum price was relatively strong. The short - term market digested the negative impact of Sino - US trade friction, and the market focus shifted to the medium - and long - term macro and industrial aspects. The decline in the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum on Thursday supported the aluminum price. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 21,000 mark [5]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated and rose, with a slight decline in the position. The short - term market digested the negative impact of Sino - US trade friction, and the non - ferrous metal sector as a whole stabilized. The nickel price was weak due to the weak industry and remained at a low level since late September. Attention should be paid to the low - level support [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: BHP is considering reopening four long - closed copper mines in Arizona, USA. The potential restart plan will focus on the Globe–Miami area, and BHP also plans to re - process the tailings of the closed operations there [8]. - **Aluminum**: On October 16, 2025, the inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong was 61,500 tons, and that in Wuxi was 43,500 tons, with a total of 105,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the previous period. The Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 615,000 tons on October 16, a decrease of 27,000 tons compared with October 13 [9][10]. - **Nickel**: On October 16, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,400 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 100 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][38][40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 甲醇 供需结构改善 作为全球最大的甲醇进口国，我国 25%~30%的进口甲醇来自伊朗。伊朗甲醇凭借丰富的天然气资源 长期保持价格优势，成为沿海甲醇制烯烃（MTO）装置的主要原料来源。上述制裁不仅切断了伊朗甲醇的 部分物流通道，更因"次级制裁"风险导致多家国际航运保险公司暂停承保涉及伊朗航线的船舶，进一步加 剧了船队调度紧张的局面。据了解，目前已有在途货船因租船方临时退租而滞留中东锚地，无法按期抵港。 短期来看，受限于替代运力不足与绕航带来的航程延长（增加 15~20 天），华东港口甲醇卸货节奏将放缓， 叠加市场对后续供应的担忧情绪升温，期货价格快速上行。尽管目前国内港口库存处于历史高位，但结构 性矛盾正在显现——若伊朗甲醇出口持续受限，我国沿海 MTO 工厂可能面临原料短缺问题，进而推高区 域现货升水。从中长期来看，市场或将加速构建新型运输网络，包括启用更多非美关联船东、优化第三国 中转模式等。同时，来自阿曼、文莱及南美地区的非伊朗货源进口占比有望提升，以填补供应缺口。然而， 与伊朗货源相比，非伊朗货源价格普遍高出 300~400 元/吨 ...

螺纹钢 去库存压力大 （2025 年 10 月 16 日） 媒体发文 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 在 9 月中旬短暂反弹之后，螺纹钢期货价格再度转弱下行，国庆假期前主力合约更是跌破 3100 元/吨整数关口，创下阶段性新低。同时，现货价格也在低位偏弱运行。 宏观情绪偏弱 美东时间 10 月 10 日，美方宣布，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，将对中方加征 100%关税，并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。上述举措引发市场避险交易，风险资产价格承压回 落。在经历了 4 月的"对等关税"冲击后，新一轮关税威胁对商品市场的边际影响减弱。事实上，新一 轮关税威胁对黑色产业的影响有限，国内钢材直接出口至美国的数量较少。不过，若贸易摩擦升 级，可能对我国钢材的间接出口形成冲击，例如汽车、家电等产品出口受限后会加剧板材产业的供 需矛盾，进而导致建筑钢材价格承压。笔者认为，若贸易摩擦升级，国内将出台更多利好政策，对 黑色金属价格形成显著支撑，市场情绪将再度切换。 与钢价弱势下行不同，原料价格表现相对偏强。根据钢联数据，截至 10 月 10 日当周，247 家 样本钢厂中盈利钢厂占比为 56.28%，已 ...