投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 2604 | 强势 | 强势 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 去美元化推升金价 | | 铜 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 盘面做多氛围回暖 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：强势 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：上周金价持续上涨，纽约金由 4600 美元上涨逼近 5000 美元关口。周中虽然美欧地缘冲 突有所缓和，金价 ...

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on the stock index futures is that they will fluctuate and consolidate. In the short - term (within a week), the sentiment is oscillating, and in the medium - term (two weeks to a month), it's also oscillating. For the intraday, it's on the weaker side [1][5]. - The main factors supporting the long - term upward trend of the stock index are the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market. In the short - term, the expectations of policy bottom - support, support for technological innovation, and boosting consumption are clear, which strongly support the stock index. Although the regulatory authorities have signaled risk control, the high trading volume in the stock market indicates that the market sentiment remains optimistic [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is on the weaker side. The reference view is that it will fluctuate and consolidate, with the core logic being that the optimistic sentiment has cooled down and there is still a need for oscillatory consolidation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is on the weaker side, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is that they will fluctuate and consolidate. The core logic is that last Friday, the stock indices fluctuated and diverged, with IM and IC leading the gains, while IH and IF slightly declined. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 311.81 billion yuan, an increase of 40.17 billion yuan from the previous day [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-26 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 23 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪偏暖，钢矿震荡回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.58%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹供应回升并至高位，而需求表现疲弱，基本面持续走弱，淡季钢价 承压运行，相对利好则是期价已跌至谷电成本附近，下行阻力增加，预 计走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.52%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供应压力未退，而需求韧性趋弱，产业矛盾易再度累积，价格 承压运行，相对利好则是投机需求尚可，短期价格延续震荡运行态势， 关注需求变化情况。 铁矿石：主力期价有所走强，录得 1.21%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶 段，矿商发运季节性回落，但库存高企，供应压力未缓解 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 23 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡走强 核心观点 沪铜 本周沪铜在 10 万一线偏弱震荡运行，振幅较上周明显收窄。周中 屡次跌破 10 万关口，随后企稳回升，持仓量在周内小幅上升。宏观 层面，市场风险偏好随着格陵兰岛事件的反转而回升，美元指数弱 势运行。产业层面，随着铜价下挫至 10 万关口，下游部分产业补库 意愿上升，周四电解铜小幅下降，月差小幅反弹，进口亏损也有所 收窄，这反映了国内产业支撑的上升。可持续关注 10 万关口多空博 弈。 沪铝 本周 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 23 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 181520 元/吨，较前日 上涨 12740 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 171050 元/吨，较前日上涨 3.94%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-6270 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 1670 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 1. 产业动态 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, each stock index fluctuated and showed differentiation. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 led the gains, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 slightly declined. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3.1181 trillion yuan, an increase of 401.7 billion yuan from the previous day [4]. - The positive policy expectations and the continuous net - inflow of incremental funds into the stock market are the main supporting forces for the upward movement of the stock index. These two factors remain unchanged in the medium and long term, and the logic of the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index is relatively solid [4]. - In the short term, the policy support needs, the promotion of technological innovation, and the expectation of boosting consumption are relatively clear, which strongly support the stock index. Although the regulatory authorities have sent signals to control risks, the trading volume of the stock market remains at a relatively high level, indicating that market sentiment is still optimistic. In general, the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4]. - Regarding options, since the medium - and long - term upward logic of the stock index is relatively solid, a bull spread strategy can be considered [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 23, 2026, the 50ETF fell 0.80% to close at 3.106; the 300ETF (SSE) fell 0.49% to close at 4.704; the 300ETF (SZSE) fell 0.57% to close at 4.898; the CSI 300 index fell 0.45% to close at 4702.50; the CSI 1000 index rose 1.94% to close at 8470.74; the 500ETF (SSE) rose 2.95% to close at 8.719; the 500ETF (SZSE) rose 2.94% to close at 3.466; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.66% to close at 3.337; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.43% to close at 3.502; the SSE 50 index fell 0.69% to close at 3032.19; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.80% to close at 1.64; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.76% to close at 1.58 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on January 23, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in February 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are presented [8][9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts 3.2.1 SSE 50ETF Options - Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [10][11][12]. 3.2.2 SSE 300ETF Options - Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [22][23]. 3.2.3 SZSE 300ETF Options - Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [25][26][27]. 3.2.4 CSI 300 Index Options - Charts contain the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [37][38][39]. 3.2.5 CSI 1000 Index Options - Charts include the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [40][41][42]. 3.2.6 SSE 500ETF Options - Charts cover the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [55][56][57]. 3.2.7 SZSE 500ETF Options - Charts involve the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [68][69][70]. 3.2.8 ChiNext ETF Options - Charts include the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [81][82][83]. 3.2.9 Shenzhen 100ETF Options - Charts cover the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [94][95][96]. 3.2.10 SSE 50 Index Options - Charts involve the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [107][108][109]. 3.2.11 STAR 50ETF Options - Charts include the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [120][121][122]. 3.2.12 E Fund STAR 50ETF Options - Charts cover the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [130][131][132].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2026 年 1 月 23 日 橡胶甲醇原油 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡上行， 大幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心大幅上移至 16300 元/吨一线上方运 行。收盘时期价大幅收涨 3.29%至 16315 元/吨。5-9 月差升水幅度扩 大至 95 元/吨。能化板块集体走强提振沪胶期货转入偏多氛围，预计 后市胶价或维持震荡偏强的走势。 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 生猪 生猪 | 报告 2026 年 1 月 23 日 生猪 专业研究·创造价值 生猪 供应过剩格局延续 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协 会 授 予 的 期 货 从 业 资 格 证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本 人 承 诺 以 勤 勉 的 职 业 态 度，独立、客观地出具本报 告。本报告清晰准确地反映 了本人的研究观点。本人不 会因本报告中的具体推荐意 见或观点而直接或间接接收 到任何形式的报酬。 供应宽松格局延续 1 月 19 日，国家统计局发布的经济数据显示，生猪市场供应宽松格局延续。5938 万吨的 猪肉产量对生猪市场价格形成明显压制。能繁母猪存栏量下降速度偏慢，并且处于正常保有 量以上，结合生产效率大幅提升的情况，生猪有效产能去化幅度远小于母猪数量的降幅。这 也是当前生猪市场的主要矛盾，从表面上看，能繁母猪存栏量在下降，但实际供应能力依然 较强劲，导致整个行业的磨底周期 ...

姓名：涂伟华 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 23 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 单边驱动不足，煤焦震荡整理 核心观点 焦炭：截至 1 月 23 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量 合计 110.21 万吨，周环比微增 0.04 万吨；需求端，247 家钢厂铁水日均 产量 228.1 万吨，周环比微增 0.09 万吨。库存方面，本周钢厂、港口焦 炭库存均有所增加，247 家钢厂总库存周环比增 11.31 万吨，至 661.64 万吨，焦炭可用天数 12.35 天，周环比增 0.38 天。整体来看，焦炭自身 基本面并无明显利好，成本端焦煤带来的支撑同样有限，主力合约暂维持 低位区间运行。 焦煤：焦煤产量平稳，进口维持高位，需求依旧低迷，基本面未见好转。 具体数据上，钢联统计显示，截至 1 月 23 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿 精煤日均产量 77 万吨，周环比基本持平，小幅增加 0.1 万吨，同比偏高 3.6 万吨。进口方面，1 月截至 20 日，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤合计通关 19890 车，月环比下降 24.9%，同比 ...