1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.80%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. The supply - demand of rebar remained weak, and the fundamentals continued the seasonal weakness. However, the low inventory and policy expectations, along with strong raw materials, provided cost support. It was expected that the rebar price would continue to fluctuate and stabilize [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate rose with a daily increase of 1.23%, and both volume and positions expanded. The supply of hot - rolled coil decreased while the demand was resilient. The fundamentals improved, inventory decreased again, and policy expectations and strong raw materials supported the price. It was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.81%, and both volume and positions expanded. In the current supply - demand weak situation, the fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. Policy expectations and optimism supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but the valuation was high, and a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the output of major machinery and equipment in China showed different performances. The output of excavators, metal - cutting machine tools, and metal - forming machine tools increased significantly, with year - on - year growth of 12.4%, 13.5%, and 10.4% respectively. The output of small tractors decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decline of 15.8% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the output of four major household appliances in China was released. The output of washing machines increased by 10.3% year - on - year. The output of air conditioners increased by 5.5% year - on - year, the output of refrigerators remained flat year - on - year, and the output of color TVs decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [7]. - In the first half of 2025, China's rebar output was 98.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The output of medium - thick wide steel strips increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the output of wire rods increased by 0.6% year - on - year [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The report provided a black metal spot quotation table, including prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The report presented a table of the main contract futures prices, including the closing price, increase or decrease, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, volume difference, open interest, and position difference of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report included charts of steel and iron ore inventory (rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore at 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines), steel mill production (247 sample steel mills' blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, profit - making steel mills' proportion, 87 independent electric furnace start - up rate, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situation) [13][18][27]. 3.5 Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand remained weak. The weekly output decreased by 7.60 tons week - on - week, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons week - on - week. Due to low inventory, policy expectations, and cost support from strong raw materials, the price was expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize [36]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: The supply decreased by 2.00 tons week - on - week, and the demand was resilient with an increase of 1.28 tons week - on - week. The fundamentals improved, and the price was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [37]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand weakened. The terminal consumption of ore decreased, and the supply also contracted. Policy expectations supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [38].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-17 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前胶市供应端处在割胶旺季，增量预期较强，月环比产出压力较大。与此同时，下游 需求偏弱，轮胎产销增速放缓，叠加终端需求迎来淡季。随着前期利空预期逐渐消化以后，沪胶期 价转入震荡回升趋势中，重心稳步抬升。本周三夜盘国内沪胶期货 2509 合约略微收涨 0.83%至 14525 元/吨，预计本周四国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡企稳的走势。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-17 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构乏力，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：国内甲醇产能持续释放，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供应预 期逐渐增大，港口迎来累库周期，而下游需求则步入淡季，供需结构趋于宽松。在经历前期大幅回 调以后，利空情绪得到释 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-17 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 投资咨询 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走向世 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue its pressured operation, with short - term dollar index rebound being a negative factor for gold prices. Copper is expected to stabilize with short - term strength, supported by downstream replenishment and narrowing of refined - scrap spreads [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term view**: Downward [1] - **Mid - term view**: Sideways [1] - **Intraday view**: Weakly sideways [1] - **Reference view**: Sideways operation [1] - **Core logic**: Overnight gold price fluctuations intensified. The New York gold initially dropped to around $3330, then quickly rose to around $3380, followed by a pull - back. The dollar index showed a dip - rebound. Market speculation about Trump potentially firing Powell and subsequent denial led to market volatility. The short - term rebound of the dollar index is negative for gold prices [3]. Copper - **Short - term view**: Upward [1] - **Mid - term view**: Sideways [1] - **Intraday view**: Strongly sideways [1] - **Reference view**: Short - term strength [1] - **Core logic**: Since this week, copper prices have been oscillating around 78,000 yuan. The decline in Shanghai copper positions to below 500,000 contracts indicates reduced capital attention. Tariff impacts increase price uncertainty, causing short - term capital outflows. Downstream replenishment and narrowing of refined - scrap spreads support copper prices, and the narrowing LME import loss reflects an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 货币政策环境偏向宽松，但短期 降息可能性不高 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。随着近期央行公开市场操作净投放流动性，流动性紧张的 局面有所缓解。而且随着国债到期收益率接近政策利率，国债收益率 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美国生物燃料政策，美豆油 库存，国内大豆成本支撑， 供应节奏，油厂库存 棕榈 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 生物柴油属性，马棕产量和 出口，印尼出口，主产国关税 政策，国内 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 淡季特征未退，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面弱势运行，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，螺纹产量再度下降，供应有所收缩但依旧处于年 内高位，且品种吨钢利润较好，压力缓解有限。同时，螺纹需求季节性弱势，高频需求指标均走 弱，且位于近年来同期低位，淡季需求特征未退，弱势需求继续承压钢价。总之，螺纹钢基本面延 续季节性弱势，淡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The market for both coking coal and coke is dominated by strong expectations, with their futures prices likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the near term, and investors should continue to monitor domestic and international policies [5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the reference view is a volatile approach due to optimistic sentiment supporting a volatile rebound [1] - For coke 2509, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the reference view is a volatile approach as multiple factors lead to a volatile operation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - On July 16, the main coking coal contract closed at 897 points, down 1.48% intraday. The main contract's open interest was 562,000 lots, with a difference of + 24,254 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 911 yuan/ton [5] - Although the short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly and there is an expectation of marginal growth in supply in July, positive news such as the US delaying the tariff exemption period and domestic "anti - involution rectification" have improved market sentiment and driven up futures prices. Additionally, President Xi Jinping's remarks during an inspection in Shanxi have alleviated market bearish sentiment [5] Coke (J) - On July 16, the main coke contract closed at 1,494.5 yuan/ton, down 1.45% intraday. The main contract's open interest was 45,300 lots, with a difference of + 223 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and at Qingdao Port, it was 1,270 yuan/ton, up 3.25% from the previous week [7] - The improvement in the raw material atmosphere of coke has led to higher coking coal spot prices, increasing coking enterprises' losses and strengthening cost support, which has raised expectations of a price increase for coke. In the futures market, the supply and demand of coke have both declined, but strong expectations dominate the market. Since July, multiple positive news at home and abroad have led to a rebound of the main coke contract, and as prices rise, the market's long - short game intensifies [7]