1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views - **螺纹钢**: The main contract price fluctuated and recorded a daily increase of 0.13%. The pre - holiday situation of weak supply and demand remained unchanged. The fundamental contradictions of rebar continued to accumulate, inventory increased significantly, and steel prices continued to be under pressure. The positive factors were policy expectations and cost support. It was expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the resumption rhythm of short - process steel mills after the holiday [5]. - **热轧卷板**: The main contract price fluctuated and recorded a daily decline of 0%. The supply pressure of hot - rolled coils did not subside, while demand continued to weaken seasonally. The fundamentals were weak, and prices continued to be under pressure. The positive factor was the post - holiday policy expectation. It was expected to continue the weak and volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the demand recovery after the holiday [5]. - **铁矿石**: The main contract price declined weakly, recording a daily decline of 2.36%. Currently, iron ore demand improved, while supply contracted in the short term. The fundamentals of ore changed, but the sustainability of the improvement was questionable. Under the weak reality, ore prices continued to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of finished products during the holiday and the shipping situation of mines [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In January, the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was 0.3%, the same as last month; the decline in second - tier cities was 0.3%, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points; the decline in third - tier cities was 0.4%, the same as last month. The month - on - month decline in second - hand residential sales prices in first - tier cities was 0.5%, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points; the declines in second - and third - tier cities were 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, narrowing by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points [7]. - **Shipbuilding**: Hengli Shipbuilding (Dalian) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co., Ltd., signed contracts for 17 ships, with a contract value of approximately 1.6 - 1.8 billion US dollars (about 11.041 - 12.421 billion RMB) [8]. - **Steel**: Fujian Province announced the list of restricted smelting equipment of steel enterprises subject to differential electricity prices in 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coils (4.75mm) were 3,304 yuan and 3,279 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billets was 2,900 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 50 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,030 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 746 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767 yuan. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 8.81 yuan and 23.39 yuan respectively. The SGX swap price was 100.05, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 99.60 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,055 | 0.13 | 555,957 | 1,942,442 | | Hot - Rolled Coils | 3,222 | 0.00 | 277,887 | 1,482,223 | | Iron Ore | 746.0 | - 2.36 | 239,453 | 494,550 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report presented the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils [14][15][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: It showed the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including inventory and its seasonal changes and month - on - month changes [24][25][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: The report included the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [29][31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **螺纹钢**: Supply and demand continued to weaken, inventory increased significantly, and short - process steel mills significantly reduced production. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 22.52 tons. Demand was also weak, and the high - frequency demand index was at the lowest level in the same lunar calendar period in recent years. It was expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [37]. - **热轧卷板**: Supply and demand continued to weaken seasonally, inventory increased, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.40 tons. Demand continued to weaken, and the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 9.35 tons. It was expected to continue the weak and volatile operation [38]. - **铁矿石**: The supply - demand pattern changed. Steel mills resumed production before the holiday, and ore terminal consumption continued to rise. However, steel mill profitability was poor, and the increase in ore demand was limited. Overseas supply contracted in the short term, but the sustainability was weak. Ore prices continued to decline under pressure [39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 169.16 -22.52 199.83 -30.67 174.13 -4.97 高炉产能利用率（%） 86.41 0.72 85.47 0.94 84.64 1.77 表观需求量 101.91 -45.73 176.40 -74.49 116.91 -15.00 钢联建材成交周均值 3.49 0.00 6.74 -3.25 6.63 -3.14 总库存 586.82 67.25 475.53 111.29 483.21 103.61 厂内库存 163.59 9.94 149.13 14.46 136.72 26.87 社会库存 423.23 57.31 326.40 96.83 346.49 76.74 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 春 节 前 15 周 春 节 前 12 周 春 节 前 9 周 春 节 前 6 周 前 3 后 3 后 6 后 9 后 12 后 15 螺纹钢周度产量（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 期货研究报告 螺纹 ...

热轧卷板周度数据（20260213） 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 期货研究报告 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 307.76 -1.40 309.21 -1.45 322.64 -14.88 高炉产能利用率（%） 86.41 0.72 85.47 0.94 84.64 1.77 表观需求量 296.19 -9.35 311.41 -15.22 302.56 -6.37 冷轧卷板周产量 88.68 -0.20 88.42 0.26 85.79 2.89 总库存 370.77 11.57 355.58 15.19 336.51 34.26 厂内库存 79.85 1.10 77.25 2.60 79.55 0.30 社会库存 290.92 10.47 278.33 12.59 256.96 33.96 热轧卷板供需两端延续季节性走弱 ...

作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 免责条款 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，节前钢厂有所复产，矿石终端消耗持续回升，本周样本钢厂日均铁水产量和进口矿日耗环比增加，增幅有所 扩大，但钢厂盈利状况不佳，且钢市矛盾不断累积，难以承接持续提产，矿石需求增量空间将受限，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口 到货回落，且飓风扰动下矿商发运大幅下降，短期海外矿石供应收缩，但持续性不强，相应的内矿生产弱稳，高库存局面下供应压力未缓 解。总之，铁矿石需求迎改善，而供应短期收缩，矿石基本面有所变化，但改善持续性存疑，现实格局相对弱稳运行，预计矿价延续低位 震荡运行，假期关注成材累库和矿山发运情况。 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report is a daily data report on futures variety arbitrage of Baocheng Futures on February 13, 2026, presenting data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of multiple futures varieties [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for power coal from February 6 to February 12, 2026, are as follows: February 6: - 106.4 yuan/ton; February 9: - 104.4 yuan/ton; February 10: - 102.4 yuan/ton; February 11: - 96.4 yuan/ton; February 12: - 90.4 yuan/ton. The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads are all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from February 6 to February 12, 2026, are presented, along with their price ratios [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from February 6 to February 12, 2026, are provided. For example, on February 12, the basis for rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, methanol was - 8.5 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber was - 525 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spread data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from February 6 to February 12, 2026, are presented. For example, on February 12, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1827 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from February 6 to February 12, 2026, are provided. For example, on February 12, the basis for rebar was 160 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For instance, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar was - 77 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spread data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from February 6 to February 12, 2026, are presented. For example, on February 12, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.99 [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from February 6 to February 12, 2026, are provided. For example, on February 12, the basis for copper was - 420 yuan/ton [28] 3.4.2 London Market - On February 12, 2026, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit - loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. For example, the LME spread for copper was (94.71), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.75 [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from February 6 to February 12, 2026, are provided. For example, on February 12, the basis for soybeans No. 1 was - 453 yuan/ton [37] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For instance, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans No. 1 was - 33 yuan/ton [37] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spread data for soybeans No. 1/corn, soybeans No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on February 12, 2026, are presented. For example, the soybeans No. 1/corn ratio was 1.97 [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from February 6 to February 12, 2026, are provided. For example, on February 12, the basis for CSI 300 was - 0.32 [49] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For instance, the next - month minus current - month spread for CSI 300 was - 54.0 [49]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-13 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the short - term (within a week), the short - term view of coking coal 2605 is "oscillation", the short - term view of coke 2605 is also "oscillation"; for the medium - term (two weeks to one month), both coking coal 2605 and coke 2605 are in "oscillation"; for the intraday, coking coal 2605 is "strong", and coke 2605 is "oscillation with a slight upward trend". The reference view for both coking coal and coke is "oscillation" [1] - It is expected that the coking coal price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival, and the coke main contract will also maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Price and Change: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port in the spot market is 1,230 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.50% [5] - Supply and Demand: As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines stop production for holidays, resulting in a short - term contraction of coking coal supply. However, downstream enterprises' coal inventories have been replenished to a sufficient level, and coal mine production will quickly resume after the Spring Festival. The long - term supply - demand situation is expected to be loose [5] - Market Outlook: In the context of a lack of long - term driving factors, it is expected that the coking coal price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [5] - Potential Positive Factors: Uncertainties in the US - Iran geopolitical conflict during the Spring Festival; economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions after the Spring Festival; possible new "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to the continuous low - level operation of coal prices [5] 3.2 Coke - Price and Change: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [6] - Supply and Demand: There has been no significant change in the coke fundamentals recently. Both supply and demand have increased slightly at a low level, and the futures lack unilateral momentum [6] - Market Outlook: It is expected that the coke main contract will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [6] - Uncertainties: "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol 2605 contract will show a weak - running trend, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak. The core logic is that although overseas supply "hard contraction" provides support, the approaching Spring Festival makes the market cautious, reducing risk preference and leading to a weak - oscillatory trend in methanol futures [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of methanol 2605 is weak, and it is expected to run weakly [1][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - **Positive Factor**: Overseas supply "hard contraction" is the key factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices. Iran, a major import source, is in the stage of winter natural gas supply guarantee and production restriction. Most methanol plants have reduced production or shut down, and the output is at a low level within the year. China's imports may decline significantly in January and February, resulting in tight external supply [5]. - **Negative Factor**: As the Spring Festival approaches, market trading becomes more cautious, risk preference decreases, causing the domestic methanol futures to show a weak - oscillatory trend on Thursday night, and it is expected to maintain this pattern on Friday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply of the domestic and foreign natural rubber markets tends to decline, while the operating load of domestic tire enterprises further decreases, showing weak demand. Social inventory pressure is difficult to relieve and will continue the inventory accumulation trend. The Shanghai rubber futures may continue the narrow - range oscillatory mode. Three key variables need attention: the recovery rhythm of the rubber - tapping peak season in Southeast Asia, the subsequent changes in EU trade policies, and the implementation effect of domestic automobile consumption stimulus policies. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, market trading becomes cautious, resulting in an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session on Thursday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The demand side enters the typical pre - festival off - season. The downstream tire and rubber product enterprises have basically completed their stockpiling, with a rapid decline in the operating rate and a low purchasing willingness. The orders in the all - steel tire and semi - steel tire markets are weak, and the demand related to logistics and infrastructure has not recovered. Terminal consumption shows a seasonal contraction, and the market lacks rigid demand support. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, market trading becomes cautious, resulting in an oscillatory and weak trend in the domestic synthetic rubber futures on Thursday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [6].

品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-13 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 风险偏好降温，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担 ...