1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows a complex picture with some indicators improving while others remain weak. For example, GDP growth has a slight decline, but export and import values have increased. The gold market has strong upward momentum, and the bond market is in an interval - shock pattern. The stock market has mixed performance in different regions and sectors [1][5][22][33] - Policy measures are expected to play an important role in stabilizing the economy. The government may introduce new policies to support foreign trade, and the central bank's monetary policy may be adjusted to address low - inflation issues [2][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% [1] - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from 49.4% in the previous period; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.0%, down from 50.3% [1] - Social financing scale increment in September 2025 was affected by high - base effects, and government bond issuance decreased [28][29] - Export and import values in September 2025 increased year - on - year, with export growth at 8.3% and import growth at 7.4% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade and will optimize the license process for rare - earth export controls [2][16] - The trading fees of some options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange will be adjusted from November 10, 2025 [2] - The China E - commerce Logistics Index in September 2025 reached a new high for the year, with the total business volume index rising [3][18] 3.2.2 Metals - On October 17, 2025, spot gold reached $4380 per ounce, and spot silver hit a record high of $54.4 per ounce. Gold's upward momentum is expected to continue until 2026 [5] - The US may take more actions on rare - earth issues and may increase its stake in rare - earth companies [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Iron and Steel Association held a symposium to clarify the goal of building a modern steel power by 2030 and proposed relevant measures [7][8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a regulatory measure for the fair opening of oil and gas pipeline network facilities, which will take effect on November 1, 2025 [9] - Russia plans to produce 5.1 billion tons of oil in 2025, a 1% decrease from last year due to OPEC+ agreements [9] - The global oil industry may face a supply shortage in the future, and Saudi Aramco's CEO called for increased investment in exploration and production [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The summer grain purchase in 2025 ended in September, with a total purchase of 107.95 million tons of wheat. The price of wheat in the main producing areas has been rising steadily since October [13] - The US is discussing soybean processing cooperation with some South American countries and is urging South Korea to increase soybean imports [13][14] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 16, 2025, the central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan due to 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [15] 3.3.2 Important News - The Ministry of Commerce responded to multiple hot issues, including Sino - US economic and trade talks and rare - earth export controls [2][16] - The survey of economists shows that most are positive about the stock market in Q4 2025 and expect economic improvement [17] - The VAT invoice data shows that the equipment renewal of enterprises is accelerating, and the new - energy vehicle sales have increased by 30.1% year - on - year [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market - The Chinese bond market is generally strong, with most spot - bond yields declining. The 30 - year treasury bond "25 Super Long Special Treasury Bond 06" has a significant decline in yield [22] - The exchange - traded bond market has mixed performance, and the convertible bond market also shows different trends among different bonds [23] - The yields of European and US bonds mostly declined [26] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1249 on October 17, 2025, down 11 points from the previous trading day [27] - The US dollar index fell 0.31% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies rose [27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Banks are facing increasing profit pressure, and investment income is becoming more important. There may be some bond - selling pressure in Q4 [28] - September's financial data reflects weak real - economy demand, and the social financing balance growth rate may decline slightly in Q4 [28][29] - The bond ETF market has developed rapidly, but there is still much room for growth compared with the European and American markets [29] 3.4 Stock Market - On October 17, 2025, the A - share market had a narrow - range shock. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.09%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.18%. Southbound funds had a large - scale net purchase [33]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: The Shanghai copper contract continued to decline with decreasing positions, dropping nearly 700 yuan/ton during the day. Due to strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, while non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. A recent decline in gold prices led to a significant drop in copper prices. Short - term caution is needed for a potential fall after a peak in gold prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 84,000 yuan mark [6]. - **沪铝**: The Shanghai aluminum contract also declined with decreasing positions, falling nearly 100 yuan/ton during the day. With strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, and non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. Technically, the aluminum price faced significant pressure at the 21,000 yuan mark, and support at the 60 - day moving average should be monitored [7]. - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel contract showed weak oscillations with little change in positions. Given strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, and non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. Nickel was relatively resistant to decline in the sector due to its weaker macro - attribute. Short - term attention should be paid to the low since late September [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: High copper prices still suppressed terminal demand, resulting in weak new orders. The operating rate of the enameled wire industry rebounded by 3.87 percentage points to 75.2% this week, and new orders increased by 6.96 percentage points but had not returned to normal levels [10]. - **Aluminum**: As of October 16, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.45/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average CIF prices of various types of bauxite from different regions remained stable compared to the previous trading day [11]. - **Nickel**: On October 17, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premiums and discounts and prices of different types of nickel (Jinchuan electrolytic nickel, Russian nickel, Norwegian nickel, and nickel beans) were provided [12]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts related to copper included the copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: Charts related to aluminum were the aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts related to nickel covered the nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 17 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 供需格局偏弱，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.03%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹需求迎来好转但持续性存疑，库存去化压力偏大，供应维持低位， 基本面暂未实质性改善，相对利好则是成本存有支撑，预计钢价延续震 荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.16%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，高供应压力未退，而需求韧性趋弱，热卷供需格局表现疲弱，相对 利好则是成本支撑，弱现实与成本支撑博弈下热卷价格延续弱势寻底态 势，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.19%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，矿石供应增加，而产业担忧未退，需求下行压力发酵，矿市基本面 在转弱，高估值矿价继续承压偏弱运行，重点关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuwei ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending October 17, the combined daily average coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,700 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5900 tons. This week, the coke inventories of upstream and downstream industries decreased. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 572,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3944 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,800 tons. Overall, both supply and demand of coke decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly lies in the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending October 17, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 779,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6000 tons. At the import end, since October 8, the Ganqimaodu Port has resumed traffic, and the daily number of passing vehicles has returned to around 1100 - 1300. At the demand end, the combined daily average coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,700 tons. In terms of inventory, downstream coking plants and steel mills actively purchased this week, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. As of the week ending October 17, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9.9737 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 383,100 tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8832 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 71,900 tons. Overall, the fundamental support for coking coal is insufficient, but recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution effects have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a range - bound operation [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - **China Shenhua**: In September, China Shenhua's coal sales volume decreased by 1.6% year - on - year. The commercial coal output in September was 27.6 million tons, and the cumulative output in the first nine months was 250.9 million tons, with year - on - year increases of 0.7% and a decrease of 0.4% respectively. The coal sales volume was 36.3 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume in the first nine months was 316.5 million tons, with year - on - year decreases of 1.6% and 8.4% respectively [9]. - **Online Auction of Coking Coal by Mongolia's Small TT Company**: On October 17, Mongolia's Small TT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal A24, V33, S0.9, G73, Mt1.9 was $60.8 per ton, the same as the previous auction on October 7. All 204,800 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of $63.8 per ton (all prices are tax - exclusive). The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 180 days after payment, with the final supply date being April 15, 2026 [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Grade FOB) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 21.65% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,460 | 1.39% | 0.00% | - 9.88% | - 20.65% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,260 | - 1.56% | - 1.56% | 6.78% | - 20.25% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - Produced) | 1,540 | 1.32% | - 4.35% | 3.36% | - 16.76% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced) | 1,660 | 0.00% | - 2.92% | 8.50% | - 14.87% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,676.0 | 1.64 | 1,691.5 | 1,668.5 | 20,491 | - 1,474 | 40,735 | - 1,812 | | Coking Coal | | 1,179.0 | 1.46 | 1,194.5 | 1,172.0 | 869,924 | - 111,364 | 606,535 | - 17,216 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory over the years [15][16][18] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants over the years [21][24][26] - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [28][29][32] 3.5后市研判 - **Coke**: The supply and demand of coke both decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly lies in the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [34] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental support for coking coal is insufficient, but recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution effects have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a range - bound operation [35]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 品种：棕榈油(P) 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：中美贸易关系前景持续扰动市场神经，关税加码与谈判不确定性交织，叠加国内市场近月 高库存、远月缺口预期的矛盾，豆类期价走势分化，资金支持减弱，短期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 中美关系， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-10-17 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏弱 | 中期 偏弱 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 主要品种价格行 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-10-17 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 2512 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶偏弱运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美国总统特朗普主动释放缓和信号，宏观面偏空情绪 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 中美关系，进口到港节奏，油 厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 中美关系，美国生物燃料政 策，美豆油库存，国内大豆 成本支撑，供应节奏，油厂 库存 棕榈 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 生物柴油属性，马棕产量和 出口，印尼出口，主产国关税 政策，国内到港、库存，替代 需求 品种：豆粕（M） 日 ...

期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡思路 | 政策面扰动不断，焦煤期货震荡 | | | | | | | | 运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。目前国债期货的驱动力量相对有限，上行空间与下行空间均较 为有限。最新公布的 9 月金融数据显示，居民部门的信贷需求仍偏弱，目前国内需求有效需求不足的 问题仍存，未来需要偏宽松的货币环境，政策宽松预期仍存，中长期来看对国债期货构成较强支撑。 不过短期内全面降息的必要性有所不足，目前市场利率隐含的降息预期较弱，短期内国债期货上行动 能有所不足。近期外部不确定性扰动升温，市场避险情绪有所升温。总的来看，短期内国债期货维持 底部震荡整理为主。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品 ...