投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 货币政策环境偏向宽松，但短期 降息可能性不高 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡上涨。一方面近期央行公开市场操作净投放流动性，市场流动性紧张 局势有所缓解，另一方面经过连续回调之后 2 年期国债到期收益 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性尚可，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗延续回落，但仍处于相对高位，且 钢厂盈利状况良好，需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑。同时，港口到货虽环比大增，但矿商发运则是延 续偏弱态势，按船期推算后续到货仍将回落 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-16 品种晨会纪要 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于中东地缘风险仍旧存在，原油溢价有所提升。在经历前期大幅回落以后，油市多头 信心再度增强，地缘溢价有所反弹。随着北半球夏季用油旺季到来，原油需求因子发力。不过近期 OPEC 和非 OPE ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前胶市供应端处在割胶旺季，增量预期较强，月环比产出压力较大。与 ...

策略参考 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 品种观点参考 备注： 核心逻辑：美豆生长优良率超出市场预期，期价跌破 1000 美分关口支撑，但美豆压榨需求旺盛仍是美豆 期价的重要支撑。国内豆粕负基差持续走扩，短期豆粕期价供应预期再次主导市场，期货强于现货，内强 外弱持续，短期震荡偏强格局持续。 品种：豆油(Y) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price fluctuated around 78,000 yuan today. After hitting a low of 77,600 yuan in the morning, it rebounded. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. After the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the spot market became looser. The narrowing scrap - refined copper price spread will support the futures price. The profit from LME imports indicates a stronger domestic copper price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the copper price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 78,000 yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main aluminum futures price fluctuated around 20,400 yuan today, with a continuous decline in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, the spot market became looser, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. On Monday, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Thursday. Recently, overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories have also started to rise. The main futures price retreated after hitting a previous high, and the off - season in the industry dragged down the futures price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the aluminum price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated lower today, with an increase in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the port inventory of upstream nickel ore continued to rise, the supply of the ore end became looser, and the support for the nickel price weakened. The downstream stainless steel followed the decline of the black metal sector. Technically, pay attention to the support at the previous low of 119,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 14, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 142,000 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from July 7 and a decrease of 6,100 tons from July 10 [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 695,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 4.032 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in June was 381,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to June, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 2.238 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. On July 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from July 10 and an increase of 18,000 tons from July 7 [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 15, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai Nickel 2508 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,420 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,970 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,170 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 118,520 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, calendar spread, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, calendar spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][30][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, calendar spread, SHFE inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][42][44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, the central bank's open - market operations have net - injected liquidity, alleviating the market liquidity shortage. After continuous corrections, the 2 - year Treasury bond yield has approached the 1.4% policy rate, with limited upward momentum. So, the downward space for Treasury bond futures is limited, and they rebounded. Macroscopically, although the economic data in the first half of this year was stable with progress, there are still problems of insufficient effective domestic demand and external disturbances. A relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year to support total economic demand. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices [4] - On July 15, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, 0.4 percentage points faster than in the first quarter [4] - The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15 showed that in the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24.8654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% (calculated on a comparable basis) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar dropped from a high level, with a daily decline of 0.54%. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness, but the low inventory limits industrial contradictions. With strong raw materials providing cost support and positive policy expectations, the steel price will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, focusing on policy implementation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil remained at a high level, with a daily decline of 0.31%. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coil have both weakened, with a slight inventory build-up. However, positive policy expectations and strong raw materials lead to a high-level oscillating trend, and overseas tariff risks should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.13%. Optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the high price of iron ore. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weakening. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating consolidation, paying attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 311.72 billion yuan, 2.3905 trillion yuan, and 3.90314 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.48654 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Private fixed asset investment decreased by 0.6% year-on-year. After deducting price factors, the growth rate was 5.3%. The investment in the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 48.16 billion yuan, 882.94 billion yuan, and 1.55543 trillion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 6.5%, 10.2%, and -1.1% [7]. - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; pig iron output was 71.91 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%; steel output was 127.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; pig iron output was 434.68 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; steel output was 734.38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,170 yuan, 3,180 yuan, and 3,287 yuan respectively, with changes of -10 yuan, -10 yuan, and -4 yuan. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280 yuan, 3,200 yuan, and 3,308 yuan respectively, with changes of -20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 1 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 750 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 707 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,114 yuan, a decrease of 0.54%. The trading volume was 1,439,493, an increase of 274,884, and the open interest was 2,153,852, an increase of 31,511 [11]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,259 yuan, a decrease of 0.31%. The trading volume was 496,158, an increase of 41,499, and the open interest was 1,566,776, a decrease of 13,515 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 767.0 yuan, an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 325,980, an increase of 86,736, and the open interest was 668,688, an increase of 3,867 [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, and iron ore inventory at 45 ports, as well as charts on steel mill production, such as blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability [13][18][27]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has decreased, but the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Demand remains weak, and the steel price is still under pressure in the off-season. However, low inventory, strong raw materials, and positive policy expectations will lead to an oscillating and stabilizing trend, focusing on policy implementation [36]. - Hot-rolled coil: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has declined, but the supply pressure remains high. Demand resilience has weakened, but downstream cold-rolled production provides support. With positive policy expectations and strong raw materials, it will maintain a high-level oscillating trend, guarding against overseas tariff risks [37]. - Iron ore: Supply and demand have both weakened. Ore demand is declining, and the supply is also contracting. Optimistic sentiment supports the high price, but the upward driving force is weakening. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating consolidation, paying attention to the performance of finished products [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][5] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.87% to 14,430 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][7] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up production and capacity utilization. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.22% to 11,570 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Tuesday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market shows a divergence between bulls and bears, and crude oil is expected to operate in a relatively strong manner. The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is predicted to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is volatile and relatively strong, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile and relatively strong [1][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - **Positive Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East still exist, increasing the premium of crude oil. After a significant decline in the early stage, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted crude oil demand [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Eight major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. However, as the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan of the oil - producing countries is gradually realized, the space for further production expansion in the future is limited [5]. 3.3 Price Performance - On Monday night, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices maintained a volatile and slightly weak trend. The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 slightly closed down 0.86% to 507.5 yuan per barrel [5].