投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 10 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA60 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，矿价高位回落 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 观点参考 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪偏弱，高估值矿价承压回落，而铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，矿石刚需表现尚可，给予矿 价支撑，但钢市矛盾持续累积，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货再创新高，而矿商发运 维持高位，高矿价下海 ...

策略参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 15 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着美国财长表态不一定对中国商品征收 100%关税，市场情绪再现反复。国内远期大豆 供应收紧预期有所降温，内豆类期货 2601 合约期价支撑有所减弱，随着市场情绪急转直下，豆粕期 价短期震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-10-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，原油震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏弱 | 中期 偏弱 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美国总统特朗普主动释放缓和信号，宏观面偏空情绪得到减弱。不过目前原油市场 宏观因子和产业因子依然维持偏弱格局。8 ...

2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 10 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均小幅收涨。消息面方面，关税战再起风波，市场避险情绪升温，利多国债 期货。不过短期内国内经济数据表现较强韧性，短期内全面降息的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-10-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2512 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶偏弱运行 | 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美国总统特朗普主动释放缓和信号，宏观面偏空情绪得到减弱。不过目前胶市宏观 因子和产业因子依然维持偏弱格局。受此影响，本周二夜盘，国内沪胶期货 2601 合约继续维持震荡 偏弱的走势，期价略微收低 0.30%至 14810 元/吨。预计本周三沪胶 260 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 10 月 15 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 宽幅震荡 | 短期资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：近期国际金价持续攀升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with potential impacts from tariff shocks and supply - demand imbalances in various industries [19]. - The A - share and Hong Kong stock markets have experienced recent adjustments, but the long - term trend of the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, and the overall risk of A - share margin trading is controllable [32][33]. - The bond market has different outlooks in the short and medium - term, with various factors affecting the performance of different bond types [22][28]. - The commodity market shows diverse trends, such as rising precious metal prices, complex situations in the coal - coke - steel - ore and energy - chemical sectors, and changes in agricultural product trade volumes [5][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, up from the previous month, while non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down from the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 6.0% and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, with M1 growth accelerating [1]. - In September 2025, export and import values increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries [2]. - From January to September 2025, the national futures market volume and turnover increased by 18.29% and 24.11% year - on - year respectively, but decreased in September [2]. - The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet and is expected to cut interest rates, with different views on the number of rate cuts [3][4]. 3.3 Main Commodity Highlights - **Metals**: Shandong Gold's net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to increase by 83.9% - 98.5% year - on - year, and gold and silver prices have risen [5][6]. - **Coal - Coke - Steel - Ore**: In early October 2025, steel production showed different trends, and global steel demand is expected to be flat in 2025 and rebound slightly in 2026 [9]. - **Energy - Chemical**: Oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances, and there may be a policy to regulate photovoltaic capacity [10]. - **Agricultural Products**: China's grain projects are progressing, and there are changes in the import and export volumes of grains in different countries [12]. 3.4 Financial News - **Open Market**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and is expected to conduct a 6 - month term reverse repurchase operation on October 15 [15]. - **Important News**: The Chinese government emphasizes economic stability, and there are various policy adjustments and economic data changes at home and abroad [16][18]. - **Bond Market**: Bond market performance is diverse, with different trends in different bond types and regions [22]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates have changed, and the US dollar index has declined [27]. - **Research Reports**: Different research institutions have different outlooks on the bond and convertible bond markets [28]. 3.5 Stock Market - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have recently adjusted, with A - share trading volume reaching 2.6 trillion yuan, and the Hong Kong stock market has been falling for 7 days [32]. - A - share margin trading scale has reached a new high, and some brokers have adjusted margin ratios, while the overall risk is controllable [32]. - Southbound funds have driven the Hong Kong stock market, and although there is short - term adjustment, the long - term trend is positive [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily arbitrage data report of Baocheng Futures on October 15, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various commodities including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][18][25][38][49]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Power Coal - The basis data of power coal from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, is presented, with the basis on October 14 being - 81.4 yuan/ton, showing an increasing trend compared to previous days [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on October 14 was 2.52 yuan/ton [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are shown. For instance, the basis of rubber on October 14 was - 595 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of rubber was - 10 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC value on October 14 was 2252 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on October 14 was 139.0 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of rebar was 56.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 14 was 3.88 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on October 14 was 1450 yuan/ton [29]. London Market - The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was 54.87 [34]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on October 14 was 7 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on October 14 was 1.90 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 14 was 31.86 [50]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) are presented. For example, the next month - current month inter - period of CSI 300 was - 17.6 [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 14 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 止盈需求上升，股指震荡回调 核心观点 今日各股指均震荡下跌，其中中证 1000 与中证 500 跌幅明显。沪深京 三市全天成交额 25966 亿元，较上日放量 2224 亿元。消息面，关税战风波 再起，11 月前外部不确定性因素升温，叠加目前估值水平处于较高水平， 投资者落袋为安的意愿上升，止盈需求下股指震荡回调。不过特朗普关税威 胁对 A 股的影响趋于短线，边际效应弱于今年 4 月初，其影响相对有限。从 宏观基本面的角度来看，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，外部关税因素的扰 动仍存，未来政策面稳定宏观基本面的预期较强，政策利好预期构成股指的 较强支撑。另外，A 股的投资属性受到政策面重视，社会财富配置股市的趋 势显现，资金面持续流入成为推动股指上行的中长期力量。总的来说，短期 内股指预计保持宽幅震荡为主。 目前期权隐含波动率仍处于低位，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以继续 持有牛市价差或备兑。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F303 ...