投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 11 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 节前观望情绪较浓，煤焦期货震荡整理 核心观点 焦炭：2 月 11 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1667 元/吨，日内录得 0.86%的跌 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.72 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+820 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1470 元/吨，周环比 下跌 0.68%。整体来看，近期焦炭基本面并无明显变化，供需两端在低位 小幅增加，期货缺乏单边动能，预计短期内焦炭主力合约维持低位震荡格 局。 焦煤：2 月 11 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1123.5 点，日内下跌 0.31%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 48.48 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-14309 手。 现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1230.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 2.50%。整体来看，焦煤基本面支撑有限，中长期需求担忧仍存，结合近 期动力煤价格低位企稳的走势，在缺乏中长期驱动的背景下，预计春节前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy in early 2026 shows a complex situation. The GDP growth rate slows down, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs fluctuate. The consumer price index and producer price index have different trends, and the investment and consumption data also show certain changes. In the commodity market, there are adjustments in futures contract rules and price fluctuations in various commodities. The financial market has changes in monetary policy, bond market, and exchange rate market, and the stock market shows different trends in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][38][39]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1]. - In December 2025, social financing scale was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - CPI in December 2025 was 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month, and PPI was - 1.9% year - on - year, up from - 2.3% in the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and trading margin levels of various futures contracts from February 12, 2026 [2]. - Bank of China adjusted the margin ratios of gold and silver deferred contracts from February 11 [2]. - On February 10, 41 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis [3]. - The China Futures Association drafted a management rule for stress testing of futures companies' trading and settlement systems and solicited public opinions [3]. - Heraeus Limited was approved as an overseas standard gold ingot provider by the Shanghai Gold Exchange and can trade and deliver since February 5, 2026 [4]. - Fed officials Logan and Hamark said the Fed's policy stance was close to neutral and there might be no need for further rate cuts if inflation fell and the labor market remained stable [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - On February 11, spot gold reached $5050, up 0.53% for the day, and spot silver reached $81 per ounce, up 0.81% for the day [5]. - Chow Tai Fook may adjust the price of gold products in mid - March, with an expected increase of 15% - 30% for fixed - price products [5]. - The price of indium has reached a more than ten - year high, up more than 55% since last September [5]. - In December, Codelco's copper production increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 181,400 tons, while the copper production of Collahuasi Mine decreased by 12.1% year - on - year to 36,200 tons [6]. - As of February 10, 2026, the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.34 tons to 1079.32 tons [6]. - On February 9, tin and copper inventories reached new highs, while aluminum, zinc, and lead inventories decreased [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The White House will hold a coal - related event on Wednesday [8]. - The US Trade Representative is conducting negotiations on key minerals, including with Mexico and India, and expects to finalize an agreement with Indonesia in the next few weeks. Japan and the US will discuss a project supported by a $550 - billion investment tool [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Zhoushan was approved to carry out the mixed - export business of marine bio - fuel oil [9]. - The US Energy Information Administration predicted that US natural gas production would reach a record high in 2026, while demand would remain stable. It also provided forecasts for oil demand and prices [9][10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Beef prices showed a slight upward trend as the Spring Festival approached. Egg prices declined due to sufficient supply and weakening demand [11]. - The US Department of Agriculture's February forecast for US soybean production, ending stocks, and yield in the 2025/2026 season remained unchanged from January [12]. - Bangladesh will purchase soybeans, wheat, cotton, and corn. Brazil's February exports of soybean meal and soybeans are expected to increase [13]. - The India Cotton Association expects the cotton supply in the 2025 - 26 season to be 42.8 million bales [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 10, the central bank conducted 311.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 205.9 billion yuan [15]. - On February 10, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted a 150 - billion - yuan central treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit auction, with an interest rate of 1.73% [15]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use policy tools flexibly, and normalize treasury bond trading operations [16]. - The 21st session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from February 25 - 26, with multiple draft laws to be reviewed [17]. - The market regulatory authority approved a batch of important national standards in various fields [17]. - Five ministries jointly issued a guide for the construction of the science and technology service industry standard system [18]. - In January 2026, investment in digital economy - related fields was active, and consumption increased [18]. - Fiscal expenditure is shifting from infrastructure to "new - quality productivity" [19]. - The focus of the real estate market in 2026 is to stabilize the market, reduce inventory, strengthen housing security, and promote urban renewal [20]. - In 2025, the national social logistics volume increased by 5.1% year - on - year, with significant growth in the logistics volume of industrial robots and new - energy vehicles [20]. - Local debt resolution is in a critical stage, and some areas have completed debt - clearing tasks [20]. - Some real - estate enterprises have new financing activities, but the financing environment has only "point - like improvement" [21]. - Banks have issued a large number of large - denomination certificates of deposit, with a short - term trend and differentiated product strategies [21]. - The wealth management scale of large - scale wealth management companies declined in January 2026, but there are positive expectations for the future [22][23]. - Small and medium - sized banks have raised deposit interest rates at the beginning of the year [23]. - Tianjin's first batch of ESG - standardized bonds for financial leasing were issued [23]. - Alphabet issued a 750 - million - pound 100 - year bond, with over 7 - fold over - subscription [24]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March is 21.6%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 78.4% [24]. - Japan's national debt reached a record high at the end of 2025 [25]. - Ray Dalio warned that the US is in the "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle and recommended holding 5% - 15% of gold in the investment portfolio [26]. - There were various bond - related events, including credit rating adjustments and disciplinary actions [27]. - Overseas credit rating agencies adjusted the credit ratings of some Chinese real - estate enterprises [28]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with government bonds performing better than policy - financial bonds. The money market interest rates mostly increased [29][31]. - The exchange - traded bond market had active trading, with some bonds rising and some falling. The convertible bond index declined [29][30]. - The yields of European and US government bonds declined [33]. 3.3.4 Exchange Rate Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 155 points to 6.9129 at the close on February 11. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 65 points [34]. - The US dollar index rose slightly, and most non - US currencies fell [34]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the liquidity of urban investment bonds will continue to differentiate, and 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds have high cost - performance [35]. - CITIC Securities points out that the consumption during the Spring Festival and the policy from local two sessions are the focuses in Q1, and the industrial destocking speed after March and the implementation of new industrial policies are crucial for the annual economic recovery [35]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income suggests that investors focus on the coupon strategy for Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds in 2026 and pay attention to the yields of offshore urban investment dim - sum bonds and bonds of banks and financial services sectors [36]. - Yangtze River Fixed - Income believes that the spread changes of local bonds are affected by market trading and policies, and there are differences in liquidity and trading preferences among different provinces [36]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On February 11, 280 bonds were listed, 74 bonds were issued, 75 bonds were due for payment, and 89 bonds were due for principal and interest repayment [37]. 3.4 Stock Market News - On February 11, the A - share market showed narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.37%. AI application stocks and some concept stocks were active, while photovoltaic and consumer stocks were weak [38]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.58%, and AI application stocks and innovative drug concept stocks rose. Southbound funds had a small net purchase, and Tencent Holdings was sold [39]. - Foreign institutions are optimistic about Chinese assets, believing that China has a complete industrial chain, strong innovation ability, and attractive valuations [39].

3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性不大 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：今日国债期货均震荡整理。由于贵金属、股市的波动风险有所降温，国债的避险需求有所 减弱。且短期内美联储降息预期放缓，加上央行货币宽松政策以结构性降息为主，短期内全面降息的 ...

Report Summary of Baocheng Futures' Rebar Morning Report (February 11, 2026) 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply and demand pattern of rebar is weak. Although the supply has shrunk due to production cuts by construction steel mills, the high inventory level limits the positive effect. Meanwhile, the demand has also weakened, with high - frequency demand indicators declining and at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The steel price is under pressure and is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, with cost support as a relative positive factor. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillating and weakening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern and the steel price oscillating at a low level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar has contracted as construction steel mills have reduced production, with the weekly output of rebar decreasing month - on - month. However, the high inventory level limits the positive impact. The demand for rebar has also weakened, with high - frequency demand indicators dropping and being at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged and continues to drag down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure, and the cost support is a positive factor. The steel price is expected to oscillate and seek the bottom, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。同时，美国冬 季风暴 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 国内供应收缩给予铜价支撑 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 品种观点参考 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日金价呈现震荡运行，纽约金维持在 5000 美元上方 ...

◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 股市风险偏好谨慎乐观 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。沪深京三市成交额 21247 亿元，较上日缩量 1454 亿元。随 着白银止跌反弹，市场情绪有所回暖，股指运行逻辑回归自身基本面。不过 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：2 月份的美国农业部报告显示，美国 2025/26 年度大豆产量、单产、播种及收割面积均与 1 月 预估持平。期末库存保持在 3.5 亿蒲式耳，与 1 月报告一致，处于六年高位。美豆出口预估仍为 15.75 亿 蒲式耳，未因特朗普总统关于中国可能增加采购 800 万吨的言论而上调。尽管美豆压榨需求强劲，但出口 进度滞后，叠加巴西大豆产量上调，供应压力增加对美豆价格构成压制。国内随着春节临近，油厂陆续停 机，现货交投转淡。尽管进口大豆成本为豆粕价格提供支撑，但国内港口大豆与豆粕库存高企，且节后可 专业研究·创造价值 1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗低位回升，但增幅有限，且钢市产业矛 盾在累积，需求改善力度有限，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口到货量回落，且飓风扰动下矿商 发运大幅下降，海外矿石供应短期收缩，库存高企局面下供应压力缓解有限。总之，天气因素扰动下 海外矿石供应短期收缩，而需求则是弱稳运行，铁矿石基本面未见改善，高库存格局下矿价仍将承压 运行，关注钢价表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...