Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively [1][5]. - Due to factors such as increased domestic and overseas supply and weakening downstream demand, the methanol supply - demand structure is becoming looser. However, after the release of negative sentiment from the previous sharp correction and the potential new round of supply - side reform, the domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend. The night - session of domestic methanol futures on Monday slightly rose 0.46% to 2398 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract on Tuesday is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Change Calculation Rules - For varieties with night - trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation; a rise of 0 - 1% is a strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase [3]. - Oscillatory - bullish/weak only applies to the intraday view, not for short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.2 Methanol Market Analysis - The continuous release of domestic methanol production capacity and the arrival of overseas shipments increase the supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand enters the off - season, leading to a looser supply - demand structure [5]. - After the previous sharp correction, negative sentiment has been released. The domestic high - level meeting's tone on governance of low - price disorderly competition and the exit of backward production capacity may bring a new round of supply - side reform, which boosts domestic commodity futures [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to move in a range, with short - term decline, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation with a weak bias [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term, with short - term rise, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation with a strong bias [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Gold price strengthened during the day yesterday and was weak at night. It has been rising since July 9th [3] - **Driving Factors**: The expectation of US tariffs on Russia raises risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold. However, the continuous rebound of the US dollar index and high risk - preference in the equity market put pressure on gold prices. Technically, there is resistance at the early - month high [3] Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper price opened low and went high last night, standing above the 78,000 - yuan mark. It has seen obvious position - reduction and price - decline since last week [5] - **Driving Factors**: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1st, which may lead to a decline in US imports and an increase in non - US supply, causing copper prices to fall. The continuous rise of the US dollar index is also negative for copper prices. But at the 78,000 - yuan level (the price center in June), copper prices may stabilize due to the warming domestic macro - environment [5]

品种观点参考 - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight downward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5 [2] - The core logic is that both supply and demand are weak, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. The number of steel mill inspections has increased, and the terminal consumption of ore has been continuously decreasing. The demand in the off - season has weakened as expected. However, the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the reduction space is limited. At the same time, the arrival at ports has significantly increased, but the shipping volume of miners has continued to be weak. According to the shipping schedule, it is difficult to have a continuous increase in subsequent arrivals. Overseas ore supply remains at a low level, and domestic ore production has also weakened, resulting in a contraction in supply [3] - Currently, the optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the ore price to remain at a high level. However, under the situation of weak supply and demand, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore, and the valuation has risen to a relatively high level, with the upward driving force weakening. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating and consolidating state, and it is necessary to pay attention to the performance of finished products [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is a sideways movement, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the intraday view is a sideways - to - bullish trend, with the overall view being sideways - to - bullish due to positive policy expectations providing strong support [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is sideways - to - bullish, and the medium - term view is an upward trend. The overall reference view is sideways - to - bullish. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, mainly driven by expectations of policy benefits in the second half of the year. In the short term, the upward momentum of the stock index has slowed down, but the trading volume is still at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite remains optimistic. The stock index will operate sideways - to - bullish in the short term [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term is a sideways movement, the medium - term is an upward trend, the intraday is a sideways - to - bullish trend, and the overall view is sideways - to - bullish. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index had a narrow - range sideways adjustment. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, mainly driven by expectations of policy benefits in the second half of the year, including the optimistic expectation that the "anti - involution" policy will promote profit restoration in industries such as new energy and the supporting effect of macro - policies on economic demand. In the short term, the upward momentum of the stock index has slowed down, but the trading volume is still at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite remains optimistic. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July. In general, the stock index will operate sideways - to - bullish in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall view of the report is that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although the short - term demand for safe - haven has decreased, the medium - to - long - term downward space is limited due to the need for a loose monetary environment [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "fluctuation", and the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures slightly pulled back yesterday. The demand for safe - haven of Treasury bonds has decreased due to the recovery of stock market risk appetite and the easing of Sino - US tariff risks. However, in the medium - to - long - term, due to weak inflation and insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, a loose monetary environment is needed, so the downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal and palm oil futures is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, while the medium - term trend is oscillating [5][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term and intraday view is oscillating and strengthening, medium - term view is oscillating; reference view is oscillating and strengthening [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The excellent growth rate of US soybeans exceeded market expectations, and the futures price fell again to test the support at the 1000 - cent mark. The negative basis of domestic soybean meal continued to widen. In the short term, the supply expectation of soybean meal futures dominated the market again. The futures were stronger than the spot, and the trend was stronger than that of US soybeans. The short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern continued [5] Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term and intraday view is oscillating and strengthening, medium - term view is oscillating; reference view is oscillating and strengthening [6][7][8] - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil continued to improve, which boosted the palm oil futures price and had a continuous linkage effect on domestic palm oil futures prices. The domestic palm oil futures price followed the fluctuations of the international palm oil market. The lack of enthusiasm from capital participation restricted the rebound space, and it ran in an oscillating and strengthening manner in the short term [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke, the reference view is a volatile approach, with coking coal expected to be relatively strong in the short - term and coke having a rising expectation due to cost support and market sentiment [1][5][6] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of July 14, the coking coal main contract oscillated after a continuous rebound, closing at 915.5 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase [5] - **Supply**: As of the week ending July 11, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 million tons and 1.4 million tons lower than the same period last year. From June 30 to July 5, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 4,505 vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 234 vehicles, equivalent to a daily average of 750.8 vehicles [5] - **Demand**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 million tons [5] - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, coking coal futures are expected to remain relatively strong, driven by strong expectations and the upcoming Politburo meeting in July. Continued attention should be paid to relevant policy developments [5] Coke (J) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of July 14, the coke main contract oscillated, closing at 1524.5 yuan/ton with a 0.16% decrease [6] - **Cost and Supply - Demand**: The improvement in the raw material market atmosphere led to a rebound in coking coal spot prices, increasing coking enterprise losses and strengthening cost support. The coke market shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline, but strong expectations dominate the market. Since July, multiple positive news has improved market sentiment, and the coke main contract has continued to rebound [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is dominated by expectations, and steel prices have stabilized during the off - season. For the rebar 2510, in the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend; in the medium - term, it will oscillate; and intraday, it will be oscillating with a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Although production has declined and demand is weak, the low inventory situation limits industrial contradictions, the strong raw materials provide cost support, and the policy利好 expectations are fermenting. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will continue the oscillating and stabilizing trend, and the implementation of policies should be closely monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2510, the short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating with a slight downward trend. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market and steel prices stabilize during the off - season [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and rebar production has declined again, but the decline is limited and the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the supply pressure relief is limited. The rebar demand is seasonally weakening, with weekly performance decreasing month - on - month and high - frequency transactions also shrinking, remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, still putting pressure on steel prices [3]. - Currently, although the rebar fundamentals are seasonally weak and steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off - season, the low inventory situation limits industrial contradictions. The strong raw materials provide cost support, and the policy利好 expectations are fermenting. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will continue the oscillating and stabilizing trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern due to the enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and better - than - expected new car production and sales data in the first half of the year, despite the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the steadily rising domestic coal futures prices compete with the weak methanol supply - demand structure [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend as the negative impact of production increases is digested, and the further expansion of production by oil - producing countries is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a 0.05% increase. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.36%, while the general trade inventory increased by 0.40%. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79% as of July 10, a 1.66 - percentage - point increase, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a 0.42 - percentage - point decrease. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, down 5.7 percentage points year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 72.09%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The weekly methanol production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,100 tons. The inventories in East and South China ports increased significantly week - on - week [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 432, a week - on - week decrease of 7. As of the week of July 4, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 7.07 million barrels week - on - week. The WTI crude oil futures market net long positions decreased significantly week - on - week, while the Brent crude oil futures market net long positions increased significantly [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,350 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 14,360 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | -10 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,407 yuan/ton | -20 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | 11 yuan/ton | -26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 482.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 513.0 yuan/barrel | +8.8 yuan/barrel | -30.3 yuan/barrel | -8.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: There is a chart of rubber basis [16]. - **Methanol**: Charts related to methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting are mentioned [29][31][33]. - **Crude Oil**: Charts related to crude oil basis, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change are mentioned [41][43][49].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 · 2025 年 7 月 14 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 美关税预期升温，金价强势运行 核心观点 上周海外金价跌破 3300 美元后反弹，国内沪金跌破 770 元后反 弹。7 月 9 日为此前美国和其他国家延期 90 天关税的截至日期，市场 关税预期有所上升，利好金价。技术上，期价企稳回升，再度站上 3300 美元和 60 日均线，预计维持强势运行。白银上周增仓上行明 显，突破前期高位，金银比值随之下行。白银上行是贵金属和有色共 振的结果，短期期价增仓上行明显，突破前期高位，上行动能较强。 拉长周期看，二季度以 ...