投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 24 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1746 元/吨，日内录得 0.20%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.87 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 552 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/ 吨，周环比持平。当前，焦炭维持供需两弱格局，基本面未明显改善，不 过下游冬储补库和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌，叠加 1 月后钢厂存复产 预期，关注后续下游补库和生产节奏。 焦煤：12 月 24 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1132 点，日内上涨 0.62%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.05 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-8652 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平。目 前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰 动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位反 ...

期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹供应低位企稳，而需求同样弱稳，淡季基本面未见好转，钢价仍易 承压，相对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预计螺纹延续低位震荡运行 态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 一 产业动态 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.09%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated around 95,000 yuan, with significant position - increasing and upward movement at the end of the session, breaking through the 96,000 - yuan mark. Macroscopically, after the December central bank resolutions of the US and Japan, liquidity increased, and the US dollar index continued to weaken, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the downstream was in a strong wait - and - see mood. The spot market had extremely weak buying in the morning, and due to year - end payment collection and capital pressure, sellers dumped a large amount of goods. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper to the SHFE 2601 contract dropped below a discount of 300 yuan/ton for the first time since late May 2024. In the short term, macro factors drove the copper price to rise with increased positions, and the industry followed passively, with strong upward momentum for the copper price [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly, with position - increasing and rising at the end of the session, approaching the December high. Macroscopically, after the December central bank resolutions of the US and Japan, liquidity increased, and the US dollar index continued to weaken, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the basis and monthly spread remained weak, and the industrial side had strong constraints. The aluminum price rose back to the previous high, and technical pressure should be noted [7]. - **Nickel**: Last night, the nickel price rose and then fell. The main contract price of Shanghai nickel once reached the 130,000 - yuan mark. Today, it maintained a fluctuating trend around 127,000 yuan. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar led to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the expectation of policy disturbances in Indonesia increased, driving the nickel price up; the strong spot premium supported the nickel price. In the context of macro - easing, there were again disturbances in industrial supply, and the short - term upward momentum was strong [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The copper price hit a new record high. Last night, Shanghai copper opened above 95,000 yuan/ton. The spot market had extremely weak buying in the morning. Due to year - end payment collection and capital pressure, sellers dumped a large amount of goods. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper to the SHFE 2601 contract dropped below a discount of 300 yuan/ton for the first time since late May 2024, and it is expected to continue to decline tomorrow [10]. - **Aluminum**: The chairman and general manager of India's National Aluminium Company (Nalco), Brijendra Pratap Singh, revealed that due to the dual effects of growing demand and limited supply, the aluminum price is expected to rise to about $3,000 per ton in the next fiscal year [11]. - **Nickel**: On December 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 126,400 - 134,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 130,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 4,950 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 6,500 - 7,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 6,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 400 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][43].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The Shanghai rubber futures market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to continue its range - bound consolidation in the short term [2][5]. 3) Summary by Related Points Supply - Side Situation - As of mid - December 2025, China's major natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan have entered the suspension season. In Yunnan, low temperatures are the main reason for the suspension, and raw material output is extremely scarce. In Hainan, the suspension process is slightly later and is now in the final stage [2]. - In 2025, from January to October, China's natural rubber production reached 72.28 million tons, a 7.88% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The domestic market has entered the inventory consumption stage, and future focus will shift to Southeast Asian producers [3]. Demand - Side Situation - In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 5.1% and 3.2%, and year - on - year increases of 2.8% and 3.4%. From January to November, production and sales reached 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles, with year - on - year increases of 11.9% and 11.4% [3][4]. - The heavy - truck market in 2025 recovered strongly. In November, sales were about 100,000 vehicles, a 46% increase compared to the same period last year. From January to November, cumulative sales reached 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [4]. - In 2025, the domestic tire market showed the characteristics of "stable total growth, structural optimization, and internal - external coordination". In November, the output of rubber tire casings was 101.828 million, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to November, the cumulative output was 1.103115 billion, a 0.6% year - on - year increase [4]. Inventory Situation - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao reached 515,200 tons, a weekly increase of 16,300 tons (3.28%). The inventory has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, reflecting the off - season demand characteristics [5].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 需求支撑不足，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-24 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：受困于国内甲醇供应压力不断增大，同时面对国内煤炭期货价格大幅回调的拖累，甲醇 期货反弹受阻，转而重新陷入回调走势。目前港口库存和内陆地区库存小幅回落，但依然处于高位。 同时下游需求改善不足，烯烃盘面利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the long - and medium - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the stock index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Due to the lack of effective domestic demand, the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still possible. The market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut is weak, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term. With less uncertainty in the internal and external environment recently and the supply pressure of Treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year, Treasury bond futures lack upward momentum. Overall, Treasury bond futures are supported below and pressured above, expected to remain in an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term trend is "oscillation", the medium - term trend is "oscillation", the intraday trend is "weakening", and the view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of an interest rate cut is low, while the long - and medium - term easing expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. Due to the lack of effective domestic demand, the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still possible. The market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut is weak, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term. With less uncertainty in the internal and external environment recently and the supply pressure of Treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year, Treasury bond futures lack upward momentum. Overall, Treasury bond futures are supported below and pressured above, expected to remain in an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5].

Section 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Section 2: Core View - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to continue its low - level oscillation. The current situation is weak, with supply at a low and stable level and demand weakly stable. Although there is cost support and policy expectations, the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price is still under pressure [1][2]. Section 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The overall view is low - level oscillation due to the weak real - world situation [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both stabilized. Supply has slightly increased but remains at a low level for the year, providing support for steel prices. However, with the improved profits of short - process steel mills, supply is expected to rise. Demand is weakly stable, with high - frequency demand indicators increasing month - on - month but still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Downstream industries have not improved, and off - season demand will continue to weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. The steel price is expected to continue its low - level oscillation, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [2].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-24 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区步入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，同时胶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The fundamental situation is weak with demand weakening and supply remaining high, but there are some positive factors such as unresolved structural contradictions in the spot market and pre - holiday restocking expectations, which create resistance to the downward movement of prices. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "wide - range oscillation" because the fundamental situation is weak and the ore price is under pressure [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, putting pressure on the ore price. The positive factor is the strong expectation of pre - holiday restocking due to low mill inventories. Domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have both decreased month - on - month but are still at high levels within the year, and overseas ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is shrinking, the overall ore supply remains high. The weakening demand, high supply, and RMB appreciation put pressure on the ore price, while the unresolved spot structural contradictions and pre - holiday restocking expectations create resistance to the price decline [2]