Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Gold and copper are both expected to show short - term strength, with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday bias towards strength [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Short - term and medium - term upward, intraday oscillating with an upward bias, short - term outlook is positive [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: The approaching US interest rate cut, weak performance of the equity market, and increased risk - aversion demand for funds are driving factors. The poor August non - farm payrolls data on the night of September 6 pushed up the gold price, with London gold approaching the $3600 mark. Technically, New York and London gold have broken through the upper limit of the oscillation range since the second quarter, showing strong upward momentum [1][3]. Copper - **Price Trend**: Short - term and medium - term upward, intraday oscillating with an upward bias, short - term outlook is positive [1][4]. - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, the approaching US interest rate cut in September is favorable for the copper price from a financial perspective, but the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday increased the expectation of an economic downturn, which is negative. At the industrial level, China has entered the peak season, providing support for the futures price. The price is expected to be strong, and the battle between bulls and bears at the 80,000 level should be monitored [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View The short - term view of rebar 2601 is weak and oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also weak and oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the demand is weak and steel prices are seeking the bottom weakly. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and the steel prices are under pressure. The steel prices will continue the oscillating bottom - seeking trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is weak and oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is also weak and oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is weak demand and steel prices seeking the bottom weakly [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, the spot price of steel was weakly stable with average trading volume. The fundamentals of rebar changed little. Weekly production decreased slightly, but the enthusiasm for production in the peak season remained, and the supply pressure was not relieved [3] - The demand for rebar was weak. High - frequency indicators were still at the low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industries did not improve, so the potential for demand improvement was in doubt [3] - In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, inventory has continued to increase, and steel prices are easily under pressure. With the relatively positive peak - season expectation and cost increase, the steel prices will continue the oscillating bottom - seeking trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 9 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏弱 | 宽幅震荡 | 中长期向上逻辑仍存，短期资金 止盈意愿上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开拓进取 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震 ...

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - In August 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year. The Non-Manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. The growth rate of M1 increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year, while the growth rate of M0 decreased slightly [1] - In July 2025, the CPI was flat year-on-year, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% in the same period last year. The PPI was -3.6% year-on-year, the same as the previous month but lower than -0.8% in the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.6%, down from 2.8% in the previous month and 3.6% in the same period last year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.8%, down from 5.0% in the previous month but higher than 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of export and import values were 7.2% and 4.1% respectively, both showing an upward trend compared to the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China's Ministry of Commerce announced anti-circumvention measures against imported optical fiber products from the US, which is China's first anti-circumvention case [2] - Policies to expand service consumption are expected to be introduced soon, aiming to increase high-quality service supply and expand inbound consumption [2] - In August 2025, the China Commodity Price Index was 111.7 points, up 0.3% month-on-month, rising for four consecutive months. The commodity market is expected to remain stable and progress with the arrival of the traditional production peak season [2] - Analysts have different predictions for the CPI in August 2025. One expects a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 0.1% year-on-year decrease, while the other expects a 0.4% year-on-year decline [3] - The US has adjusted its tariff policy, exempting gold bars and some metals from tariffs and including silicone products in the tariff scope [3] - In August 2025, the US non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far lower than the market expectation of 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [3][4] 2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose, with spot gold hitting a record high of over $3,600 per ounce, up 37% year-to-date [5] - China's central bank continued to increase its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August [5] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the gold spot contract for the subscription and redemption of Cathay Gold ETF [5] - The gold stock market and gold ETFs have shown strong performance, and gold's strategic position is becoming more prominent [6] - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to continue to grow due to the increase in new energy vehicle sales and energy storage demand [6][7] - The tungsten and molybdenum market has good prospects, and efforts should be made to increase resource reserves and promote futures trading [7] - As of September 4, 2025, the zinc and lead inventories in the London Metal Exchange reached new lows, while the aluminum and nickel inventories reached new highs [7] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Dalian Commodity Exchange established a designated delivery warehouse for coke [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has agreed in principle to increase production next month, shifting its focus from maintaining oil prices to competing for market share [9] - The Secretary-General of OPEC predicts that OPEC+'s oil production will increase from 49 million barrels per day to about 64 million barrels per day by 2050 [9] - Iraq plans to facilitate the entry of large oil companies and is in talks with ExxonMobil for oil storage cooperation. Its oil exports in September are expected to reach 3.4 - 3.45 million barrels per day [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - China's Ministry of Commerce has imposed preliminary anti-dumping measures on imported pork and pork by-products from the EU [11] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - Last week, the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 120.47 billion yuan. This week, 106.84 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [12] - In September, the central bank conducted a 100 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation. There are also 30 billion yuan of 6-month outright reverse repurchases maturing this month, and it is expected that the central bank will conduct another 6-month outright operation [12] 3.2 Important News - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Trump's requests and actions, expressing firm opposition to economic pressure and the politicization of trade and technology issues [13] - The management of local government special bonds has been upgraded, and relevant accounting regulations have been issued to strengthen fund management [14] - There is an increasing expectation that the central bank will restart its treasury bond trading operations, which will help coordinate fiscal and monetary policies [14] - Yi Huiman is under investigation for suspected serious violations of discipline and laws [15] - By the end of August 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3222 trillion, up $29.9 billion from the end of July, and the gold reserves increased for the tenth consecutive month [15] - Shanghai held a roundtable meeting on the private economy, emphasizing support for the development of private incubators [15] - The issuance of science and technology innovation bonds has been increasing, and the scope and scale of issuance are expected to further expand [16] - As of the end of August 2025, most "fixed income +" funds had positive returns, and the fund scale continued to grow [17] - Most listed real estate companies believe that the real estate market has bottomed out, but the rebound is weak. Policies to stabilize the market are expected to continue [17] - Shenzhen has relaxed its housing purchase restrictions and plans to adjust its housing provident fund policies [18] - Some companies have failed to repay their due debts, and bondholder meetings have had different outcomes [18][19] - Some companies' credit ratings have been confirmed or adjusted, and some ratings have been revoked [19] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market weakened as the stock market rebounded. Yields of major interest rate bonds in the interbank market generally rose, and treasury bond futures closed down [20] - The science and technology innovation bonds in the exchange bond market had significant declines, while some bonds had gains [20][21] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.17%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal-Weighted Index rose 2.64% [21] - The money market interest rates showed mixed trends, and the yields of European and US bonds generally declined [21][23][24] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose 24 points at the 16:30 close, and the central parity rate was lowered by 12 points [25] - The US dollar index fell 0.56% in New York trading, and most non-US currencies rose [25] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - China's bond ETF market has developed rapidly, and credit bond ETFs are the main force. The development prospects are broad [26][27] - The central bank may restart its treasury bond trading operations as the government bond issuance nears completion [27] - The new energy sector has the potential to become a market mainstay, and its configuration is recommended [27] - The convertible bond market had a volatile week, and investors are advised to control risks and focus on high-quality bonds [27] - The issuance of interest rate bonds has passed the halfway point, and the central bank may provide liquidity support [28] - The credit bond market may continue to experience a correction in the short term, but the spread adjustment may be limited [28] - The bond market is expected to recover in September, and the impact of the stock market on the bond market may weaken [28][29] 3.6 Today's Reminders - On September 8, 2025, 172 bonds will be listed, 105 bonds will be issued, 67 bonds will require payment, and 374 bonds will pay principal and interest [30] 4. Stock Market News - In the first trading week of September 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.18% and 0.83% respectively, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.35%. The short-term market volatility may increase, and technology and "anti-involution" are the recommended investment directions [31] - The ETF-FOF market has expanded significantly, but it also poses challenges to fund managers' asset allocation ability [31][32] - As of the end of August 2025, the average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong market and the Southbound Connect has increased significantly [32] - The regulatory authorities have strengthened the punishment of delisted companies for illegal activities [32] - CITIC Securities recommends focusing on structural opportunities in consumer electronics, resources, innovative drugs, chemicals, and games [32]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-09-08 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 产油国再增产，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着周日晚间 OPEC+产油国所有成员国一致通过增产决定，将在 2026 年 8 月前逐月增产 165 万桶石油，进一步为国际油价下跌按下了确定键。虽然上周五晚间美国非农就业数据公布后，美 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 9 月 8 日 橡胶甲醇原油 利空预期落地 能化震荡企稳 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 16260 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.87%至 16260 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度收敛至 40 元/吨。胶市多空分歧，宏观预期改善，供应不及预期，车市产销乐观， 预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡企稳， 略微收涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2416 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2392 元/吨，收盘时略微收涨 0.21%至 2408 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度升阔 至 6 元/吨。受国内煤炭期货价格走强带动，盖过甲醇供需结构偏弱， 预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡企稳的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 原油：本周一国内原油期货 2510 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic arrivals at 47 ports decreased by 721,000 tons week-on-week, with the decline mainly from non-Australian and non-Brazilian ores. Australian ores rebounded from a low, while Brazilian ores decreased [2]. - Overseas ore shipments dropped significantly, with the total shipments from 19 global ports decreasing by 8.0057 million tons week-on-week. The decline was mainly due to the fall of Brazilian ores and non-Australian and non-Brazilian ores, while Australian ores showed weak and stable operation [2]. - Based on ship schedules, the arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores at domestic ports are expected to decline, and overseas ore supply fluctuations will intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Ore Arrivals and Shipments Data - **Arrival Volume** - Northern six ports: The arrival volume was 1.32 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 19,100 tons (1.47%) and a year-on-year increase of 29,800 tons (2.31%) [3]. - National 45 ports: The arrival volume was 2.448 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 78,000 tons (-3.09%) and a year-on-year increase of 230,600 tons (10.40%) [3]. - National 47 ports: The arrival volume was 2.5729 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 72,100 tons (-2.73%) and a year-on-year increase of 186,300 tons (7.81%) [3]. - Among them, Australian ores increased by 179,600 tons (11.90%) week-on-week, Brazilian ores decreased by 52,400 tons (-7.34%) week-on-week, and other ores decreased by 199,300 tons (-47.21%) week-on-week [3]. - **Shipment Volume** - Global 19 ports: The total shipment volume was 2.7562 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 800,570 tons (-22.51%) and a year-on-year decrease of 404,070 tons (-12.79%) [3]. - Australia: Shipment volume decreased by 72,190 tons (-3.81%) week-on-week, and the volume shipped to China decreased by 47,600 tons (-3.45%) week-on-week [3]. - Brazil: Shipment volume decreased by 500,350 tons (-49.66%) week-on-week [3]. - Other regions: Shipment volume decreased by 228,030 tons (-34.83%) week-on-week [3]. - Among the four major miners, VALE's shipment volume decreased by 451,550 tons (-56.19%) week-on-week, RIO's increased by 10,880 tons (1.78%) week-on-week, BHP's decreased by 33,240 tons (-6.36%) week-on-week, and FMG's decreased by 39,710 tons (-9.13%) week-on-week [3]. 3. Related Charts - The report includes charts on domestic port arrivals, global iron ore shipments, shipments of the four major miners, and estimated domestic arrivals of iron ore [5][7][8][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For coke, the eighth round of price increase at the end of August was blocked, and on September 1st, some steel mills initiated the first - round price cut, intensifying the industry chain game. The fundamentals of coke have not improved significantly. The second - fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy has warmed up the market atmosphere, and the strong cost - side expectations support the upward rebound of coke futures. However, the sustainability of the upward trend depends on the introduction of specific policies [4][32]. - For coking coal, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines this week was 693,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The daily output of coke was 1.1223 million tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons, and the daily output of molten iron was 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons. The supply - demand data met the market's bearish expectations. The risk of the second - fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy is being released, and strong expectations have driven the coking coal futures to strengthen again. The coal industry is not among the nine "anti - involution" industries in the rumor, and the subsequent price trend of coking coal depends on whether the coal industry association and enterprises will introduce new policies or self - regulatory measures [4][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In August, China imported 4.2737 million tons of coal and lignite, an increase of 712,800 tons compared to the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%. From January to August, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 29.9937 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.2% [6]. - On September 8th, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,420 yuan/ton, including cash and tax [7]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Class FOB) | 1,570 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 7.10% | - 7.10% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Class Ex - Warehouse) | 1,420 | - 4.05% | - 4.05% | - 12.35% | - 12.35% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,180 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 16.01% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian Coal) | 1,530 | - 3.16% | - 3.16% | 2.68% | - 9.47% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal) | 1,550 | - 4.91% | - 4.91% | 1.31% | - 10.40% | [8] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,620.0 | 0.22 | 1,643.5 | 1,590.0 | 28,213 | - 6,616 | 47,802 | 776 | | Coking Coal | | 1,143.5 | 1.42 | 1,166.0 | 1,121.5 | 1,421,584 | - 310,972 | 717,820 | - 3,721 | [12] Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to coke and coking coal inventories (such as 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, ports), as well as charts on domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement, wash - coal plant production, and coking plant operation [13][14][15][17][18][21][23][25][27][30][31]. Market Outlook The analysis and outlook for coke and coking coal are the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the industry chain game, policy impact, and supply - demand situation [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on September 8, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide data reference for investors. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - The report shows the basis data of power coal from September 1 to September 5, 2025. The basis values are -113.4, -117.4, -120.4, -121.4, and -122.4 respectively, and the values of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are all 0.0 [2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from September 1 to September 5, 2025 are presented, with specific values fluctuating each day [7] Chemical Commodities - Basis data: From September 1 to September 5, 2025, the basis values of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are given, showing different trends [9] - Inter - period spreads: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are provided [11] - Inter - variety spreads: From September 1 to September 5, 2025, the spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol are presented [11] Black Metals - Inter - period spreads: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads are given [20] - Inter - variety spreads: From September 1 to September 5, 2025, the spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil are presented [20] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 1 to September 5, 2025 are provided, showing different trends [29] London Market - On September 5, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented [33] Agricultural Products - Basis data: The basis values of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from September 1 to September 5, 2025 are given [38] - Inter - period spreads: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are provided [38] - Inter - variety spreads: From September 1 to September 5, 2025, the spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch are presented [38] Stock Index Futures - Basis data: The basis values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 1 to September 5, 2025 are given [50] - Inter - period spreads: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, the spreads of next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter are provided [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: With a macro environment of strong domestic and weak overseas conditions, and the industry entering the peak season, the capital attention has increased. The copper price repeatedly reached highs and then declined last week, and the open interest fluctuated in the same direction as the price. The approaching September interest rate cut in the US is favorable for the copper price from a financial perspective, but the disappointing US non - farm payrolls data on Friday increased the market's expectation of an economic downturn. The market has already priced in more of the interest rate cut and less of the economic downturn, so the non - farm data is overall negative for the copper price. Domestically, the industry's peak season provides support for the futures price. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [2][47]. - Aluminum: In a macro environment of strong domestic and weak overseas conditions, the industry presents a weak reality, and the capital attention has decreased. The Shanghai aluminum price reached a high and then declined last week, followed by a volatile trend, and the open interest continued to decline. Overseas, the expectation of an economic downturn has increased, while in China, the anti - involution atmosphere has resurfaced. In the industry, the mid - stream electrolytic aluminum has been continuously accumulating inventory, the downstream aluminum rods have been destocking, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see mood. As the domestic industry enters the peak season, the industry's support for the futures price is gradually strengthening. Attention can be paid to domestic consumption and inventory changes. Currently, it is still in a weak reality stage, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate [3][47]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - On the night of September 6th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US non - farm employment in August only increased by 22,000, far less than the market expectation of 75,000. The June non - farm employment data was revised down from an increase of 27,000 to a decrease of 13,000, the first monthly employment contraction since 2020. The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. The market's expectation of a US economic downturn has increased, and the expectation of an interest rate cut has also risen, leading to a weak performance of the US dollar index [7]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - The copper futures price repeatedly reached highs and then declined last week, and the open interest fluctuated in the same direction as the price [2][47]. 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Remain Low - Since August, domestic processing fees have slightly rebounded at a low level. The rising price of by - product sulfuric acid has also led to a slight rebound in smelters' processing profits [22]. 2.3 Slower Destocking of Electrolytic Copper - The destocking of electrolytic copper has slowed down [24]. 2.4 Downstream Initial Stage - No specific analysis content provided, only a chart of copper downstream monthly capacity utilization is shown [26]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - The Shanghai aluminum price reached a high and then declined last week, followed by a volatile trend, and the open interest continued to decline [3][47]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - No specific analysis content provided, only charts of bauxite port inventory and alumina price are shown [34]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - The mid - stream electrolytic aluminum has been continuously accumulating inventory [3][47]. 3.4 Downstream Initial Stage - The downstream aluminum rods have been destocking, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see mood. Charts of aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees (average price), and 6063 aluminum rod inventory are shown [3][47].