Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Shanghai Copper**: Today, copper prices stabilized in a fluctuating manner above 78,000, with a slight decline in open interest. At the macro level, copper is affected by US tariffs, resulting in high uncertainty and continuous capital outflows. At the industrial level, after the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the shortage in the spot market decreased. After the futures price dropped, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices plunged in the morning and then stabilized in a fluctuating manner, with continuous decline in open interest. At the macro level, on July 11, the US Department of Commerce launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping and countervailing cases of aluminum tableware imported from China. At the industrial level, after the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the shortage in the spot market decreased. The main futures price reached a high and then pulled back, facing significant pressure. Coupled with the impact of tariffs, aluminum prices dropped significantly. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Shanghai Nickel**: Today, nickel prices first declined and then rose in the morning, stabilizing in a fluctuating manner during the day. At the macro level, copper and aluminum are affected by tariffs and are operating weakly, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector as a whole, while nickel performed relatively strongly today. At the industrial level, the port inventory of upstream nickel ore continued to rise, which is bearish for nickel prices; downstream, the domestic macro expectations are rising, stainless steel is strengthening, and downstream demand may improve, providing support for nickel prices. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate above 120,000 [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 14, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 142,000 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared to July 7 and a decrease of 6,100 tons compared to July 10 [9]. - **Aluminum**: According to Cailian Press and the China Trade Remedy Information Network, on July 11, the US Department of Commerce launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping and countervailing cases of aluminum tableware imported from China, examining whether aluminum tableware made of Chinese - produced aluminum foil imported from Thailand and Vietnam is used to circumvent the current anti - dumping and countervailing measures of the US against Chinese products [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 14, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,050 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,950 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was + 2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,650 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,000 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货小幅回调 核心观点 今日国债期货均小幅回调。由于近期股市风险偏好回升，加上中美之 间关税风险缓和，国债的避险需求大大回落，近期国债期货陷入阶段性调 整。不过从中长期来看国内通胀表现较弱，内需内生性增长动能有所不足， 下半年仍然需要偏宽松的货币环境来托底需求以及稳定预期，国债期货的 下行空间较为有限。总的来说，短期内国债期货延续震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 上半年人民币贷款增加 12.92 万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加 1.17 万亿 元，其中，短期贷款减少 3 亿元，中长期贷款增加 1.17 万亿元；企(事)业单位 贷款增加 11.57 万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加 4.3 万亿元，中长期贷款增加 7.17 万亿元，票据融资减少 464 亿元；非银行业金融机构贷款增加 331 亿元。 邮箱：longaoming@bcqh ...

运筹帷幄决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 27 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2883.20 万吨，环比增 347.70 万吨，大幅回升并至年内高位；其中澳矿到货环 比增 212.60 万吨，巴西矿增 79.70 万吨，其他矿增 55.40 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运延续回落，全球 19 港矿石发运总量为 2987.10 万吨，环比减 7.85 万吨，降幅明显收 窄。主流矿商发运增减互现，但整体有所回升，四大矿石合计环比增 131.45 万吨。细分地区看巴西矿发 运环比增 158.11 万吨，澳矿与其他矿分别减 64.33、101.64 万吨。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量难现持续增量，海外矿石供应延续收缩态势。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋稳，钢矿高位震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价高位震荡，录得 0.16%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢呈现供需双弱局面，基本面未见改善，淡季钢价易承压，相对利 好则是库存低位，现实矛盾不大，叠加原料强势带来成本支撑，预计钢 价短期维持震荡企稳走势，重点关注政策兑现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价高位运行，录得 0.09%日涨幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均有所走弱，基本面表现弱稳，库存小幅累库，但政 策利好预期发酵，叠加原料强势，利多情绪支撑下热卷价格维持偏强运 行态势，提防海外关税风险发酵。 铁矿石：主力期价高位震荡，录得 0.26%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，政策利好预期带来情绪回暖，驱动矿价重回高位，而供需双弱局面 下矿石基本面并无实质性变化，且估值已升至相对高位，多空因素博弈 下预计矿价转为高位震荡整理态势，关注成材表现情况。 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on all imported copper starting from August 1st, causing pressure on both Shanghai and London copper prices. Last week, Shanghai copper witnessed a significant decline with reduced positions and lower market attention. The market is concerned about the upcoming tariff implementation, which may lead to a closure of the US import window and a notable drop in US imports. As a result, supply in non - US regions may increase, causing the prices of London and Shanghai copper to fall. The spot premium of London and Shanghai copper decreased significantly last week, indicating a relief in the shortage of spot copper. In the short term, due to the tariff impact, copper prices have dropped to the June price center. With positive domestic macro - expectations, a general rise in commodities and the stock market, and strong industrial support, Shanghai copper may receive strong support, and the LME import loss is narrowing rapidly. Technically, both Shanghai and London copper have strong support at the June price center [3][60]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded to previous highs, and the trading volume also increased, showing strong performance in the non - ferrous metals sector. The improvement in the domestic macro - environment has largely boosted aluminum prices, as commodities and the stock market generally rose last week, especially the black metal sector. In the industry, as the prices of alumina and coal continue to rebound, the cost of electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, and the profit margin at the high level has declined. The downstream is in the off - season of consumption, and combined with the rising aluminum prices, the destocking of electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, and the inventory of aluminum rods at a low level has continued to rise, which has a certain drag on aluminum prices. With a good domestic macro - atmosphere, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Local time on July 12th, US President Trump announced on the social media platform "Truth Social" that starting from August 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show copper futures prices, Shanghai - London ratio, 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount seasonality, Shanghai copper positions, COMEX non - commercial long net positions, etc [10][11][13][14]. 3.2.2 Continuous Decline in Copper Ore Processing Fees - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both the tight supply of copper ore and the over - capacity of smelting. The port inventory of domestic copper ore is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply of domestic ore and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [24]. 3.2.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Copper Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic copper has slowed down, as shown by the data of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [28][29]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is presented, including copper rods, tubes, bars, and strips [31][32]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show aluminum prices, Shanghai - London ratio, London aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum monthly spread, etc [33][34][38][40]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - Figures show the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina [46][49]. 3.3.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Aluminum Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, as shown by the data of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [50][51]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented [53][57][58]. 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the impact of the US copper tariff on copper prices and the influence of domestic macro - environment and industrial factors on aluminum prices [60].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong. The core logic is that after the release of bearish sentiment from the previous sharp correction, a new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures, and the rebound in coal futures prices drives the methanol futures to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract closed 0.17% lower at 2376 yuan/ton last Friday night, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [5]. - For the methanol 2509 contract, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1][5]. Market Supply and Demand - With the continuous release of domestic methanol production capacity, the internal supply pressure is increasing. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations. The ports are in a inventory - building cycle, while downstream demand has entered the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand structure [5]. Market Driving Factors - A new round of supply - side reform may come as the domestic high - level meeting emphasized governing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which boosts domestic commodity futures [5]. - The rebound in coal futures prices drives the domestic methanol futures [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-14 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪主导，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 乐观情绪未退，矿价高位运行，但铁矿石供需格局并无改善，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗 延续下行，相对利好则是钢厂盈利状况尚可，减量空间有限。同时，港口到货低位回升，而矿商发运 大幅减量，海外矿石供应明显收缩，相应的内矿生产同样趋弱，供应短期收缩。目前来看，政策利好 预期 ...

备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 14 日） 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 货币政策环境偏向宽松，但短期 降息可能性不高 | 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。近期国内股市风险偏好快速回升，股债跷跷板效应下国 债避险需求有所下行。短期内央行继续降息的可能性不高，国债期货陷入盘整，不过政策适度宽松的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 美国关税预期上升，利好金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美对铜的关税临近落地，非美地 区铜价承压，关注前期中枢支撑 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：上周海外金价跌破 33 ...