投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 10 月 14 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏空情绪主导 能化弱势运行 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 14850 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.97%至 14845 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度收敛至 15 元/吨。随着胶市重新回归由偏弱供需结构所主导的行情中。在宏观预 期偏弱的背景下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的 走势。 甲醇：本周二国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓，弱势下行， 大幅收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2345 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2255 元/吨，收盘时大幅回落 2.61%至 2274 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度收敛 至 26 元/吨。受偏弱的甲醇供需基本面压制，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 原油：本 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 14 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 基本面支撑乏力，煤焦偏弱震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：10 月 14 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1654.5 元/吨，日内录得 0.36% 的涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.24 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +485 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1460 元/吨，周 环比上涨 1.39%。根据钢联统计，截至 10 月 10 日当周，独立焦化厂和钢 厂焦化厂焦炭日均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to decline in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the industrial contradictions in the rebar industry are accumulating, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil plate fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.70%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and there are concerns about demand. The industrial contradictions are accumulating, the inventory has increased significantly, and the price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore turned weak and declined, with a daily decline of 2.07%, and both the volume and open interest increased. At present, the demand for iron ore is performing well, which supports the price of iron ore. However, the supply of iron ore is high, and the resilience of demand is weakening. The fundamental expectation is weakening, and the upward driving force of the high-valued iron ore price is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain a high-level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. Among them, domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 10,609 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. Among them, domestic sales were 89,877 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 84,162 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [6]. - From January to September 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, and the new car sales of new energy vehicles reached 46.1% of the total new car sales. From January to September, automobile exports were 4.95 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 1.758 million, a year-on-year increase of 89.4%. From the perspective of the consumer terminal, from January to September, the retail sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high - speed growth of 24.4%, and the retail penetration rate in September reached 57.8% [7]. - The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2025 will be about 1.75 billion tons, the same as in 2024, and will rebound moderately by 1.3% in 2026 to reach 1.772 billion tons [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap all showed varying degrees of decline. The prices of 61.5% PB powder, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index also decreased, while the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged, and the ocean freight increased slightly [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore futures all declined. The decline rates were 0.81%, 0.70%, and 2.07% respectively. The trading volume of rebar and hot-rolled coil plate decreased, while that of iron ore increased. The open interest of all three increased [11]. Relevant Charts - Multiple charts show the inventory changes of steel and iron ore (including rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore in ports and at steel mills), as well as the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operation rate, capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operation rate, and profitability) [13][20][28]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. The production of construction steel mills is weak, and the weekly output decreased by 36,200 tons. The supply has shrunk to a relatively low level, but the space for production reduction during the peak season is questionable, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect is not strong. The demand is also weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased. Weak demand will continue to suppress the steel price. It is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner under the game of multiple and short factors [35]. - For hot-rolled coil plate, the supply and demand pattern continues to weaken. The production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, and the weekly output decreased by 14,000 tons, but it is still at a high level within the year, and the inventory is high, so the supply pressure is relatively large. The demand during the holiday is weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons. Although the production of cold-rolled products, the main downstream, remains at a high level, there are concerns about the demand for hot-rolled coil. The price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly [35]. - For iron ore, the supply and demand have changed. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore remains at a high level. The demand for iron ore is performing well, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the resilience is expected to weaken. The arrival at domestic ports continues to rise, and the overseas miners' shipments decline slightly, both maintaining high levels within the year. The supply pressure of iron ore increases. It is expected that the price of iron ore will maintain a high-level volatile operation [36].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 14 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色午后跳水 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价高位回落，午后加速下跌，持仓量持续下降。短期市场 反弹后多头了结意愿较强。宏观层面，股指、有色和贵金属均呈现 下挫。预计铜价后续震荡企稳，关注 8.4 万关口支撑。 今日铝价高位回落，午后加速下跌，整体持仓量变化不大。短期 市场反弹后多头了结意愿较强。宏观层面，股指、有色和贵金属均呈 现下挫。预计铝价后续震荡企稳。 沪镍 今日镍价增仓下行明显，主力期价跌破 12.1 万关口。短期有色板 块多头了结导 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 14 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货底部震荡为主 核心观点 今日国债期货均小幅收涨。消息面方面，关税战再起风波，市场避险情 绪升温，利多国债期货。不过短期内国内经济数据表现较强韧性，短期内全 面降息的必要性有所不足，目前市场利率与政策利率直接隐含的降息预期 较弱，国债期货上行动能有所不足。从宏观基本面的角度来看，目前国内需 求有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来需要偏宽松的货币环境，政策宽松预期仍 存，对国债期货构成较强支撑。总的来说，短期内国债期货底部震荡整理为 主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沪胶 空头优势增强 宝城期货 陈栋 昨日，沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓、弱势下行，大幅收低的态势。盘中期价重心大幅下移至 14950 元/吨一线下方运行，最低下探至 14835 元/吨。收盘时期价大幅收低 2.73%，至 14940 元/吨。持仓大幅增 加 7754 手，至 151771 手，增幅达 5.38%。 交易所多空持仓排行榜前 20 席位数据显示，沪胶期货 2601 合约持仓出现多空双增的态势。其中，多 头合计增持 1811 手，至 83731 手；空头合计增持 5087 手，至 106570 手。由于空头合计增持数量远超多 头合计增持数量，导致净空头寸扩大至 22839 手。 具体来看，沪胶期货 2601 合约多头前 20 席位中，增持多单的有 13 家。其中，增持多单数量超过 500 手的有 3 家，分别为创元期货席位、申万期货席位和中辉期货席位，分别大幅增加 559 手、517 手和 734 手。另外，增持多单数量介于 100 手至 500 手之间的有 9 家，分别为银河期货席位、永安期货席位、浙商 期货席位、广发期货席位、方正中期席位、南华期货席位、国联期货席位、 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡思路 | 向上驱动乏力，焦煤偏弱震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 10 月 10 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-10-14 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏弱 | 中期 偏弱 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 参考观点：偏弱运行 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：由于近期美国更新制裁名单，9 艘长期承担伊朗甲醇对华运输任务的主力船舶被正式列入 SDN 清单。在进口预期扰动下，我国甲醇供应压力有望减轻，提振甲醇价格展开修复走势。上周四 ...

◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 10 月 14 日） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 宽幅震荡 | 短期资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均低开，全天震荡整理，小幅收跌。沪深京三市全天成交额 23742 亿元，较上 日缩量 1599 亿元。消息面，上周 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 供需格局偏弱，钢价承压运行 | 观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均有所走弱，供应持续收缩并降至相对低位，但库存偏高，且旺季减产动能不 强，利好效应有限。与此同时，假期因素扰动下需求表现疲弱，而下游 ...