投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：昨日金价冲高回落，纽约金一度逼近 4900 美元/盎司，随后回落至 4800 美元下方。本次 黄金价格上涨的直接导火索是 "格陵兰岛"地缘政治风险的急剧升温。美国总统特朗普公开威胁： 若欧洲八国（丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰、芬兰）不支持美国"购併格陵兰"计划， 将自 2 月 1 日起对其输美商品加征 10%关税，并计划在 6 月将税率提升至 25%。央视新闻报道：当地 时间 1 月 21 日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文称，基于他与北约秘书长马克·吕 特的会晤，他们已经就格陵兰岛乃至整个北极地区的未来合作框架达成了一致。如果这项方案最终得 以落实，将对美国和所有北约成员国都大有裨益。特朗普表示将不会实施原定于 2 月 1 日生效的关 税措施。短期市场避险需求下降，金价高位下挫。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and rebar supply has slightly shrunk, but the reduction is limited due to decent profit per ton. Demand has not changed much, with weekly apparent demand increasing slightly but other high - frequency indicators being sluggish and mostly at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand remains seasonally weak, dragging down steel prices. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the rebar fundamentals are weak, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. However, prices have fallen near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance, and the subsequent trend will shift to low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weak fundamental operation and low - level oscillation of steel prices. The calculation of price increase or decrease amplitude is based on the closing price of the night session (for products with night sessions) or the previous day's closing price (for products without night sessions) as the starting price and the closing price of the day session as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, 0 - 1% decline is oscillatory with a downward bias, 0 - 1% increase is oscillatory with an upward bias, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. Oscillatory with an upward or downward bias only applies to the intraday view [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Supply has slightly shrunk but the reduction is limited due to profit. Demand has not changed much, with weekly apparent demand increasing slightly but other high - frequency indicators being sluggish. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand remains seasonally weak, dragging down steel prices. In the off - season, steel prices are under pressure but have reached near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance, and the subsequent trend will be low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From January 15 to January 21, 2026, the base price of thermal coal showed a continuous decline, starting from -100.40 yuan/ton on January 15 and dropping to -115.40 yuan/ton on January 21 [2]. II. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Energy Commodities**: - **Base Price**: For fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt, the base prices on January 21 were 62.33, -0.58, and 64.30 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1395 on January 21 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber was - 680 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, LLDPE - PVC was 1896 yuan/ton [9]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rubber on January 21 was - 345 yuan/ton [10]. III. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 5 - month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar was - 780.30 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, rebar/iron ore was 3.96 [19]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rebar on January 21 was 143.0 yuan/ton [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic base prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of copper on January 21 was - 1270 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 21 were given. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (29.11), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.83 [31]. V. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: The base prices of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of soybeans No.1 on January 21 was - 152 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans No.1 was - 41 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, soybeans No.1/corn was 1.89 [37]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: The base prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on January 21 was 0.27 [49]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were given. For example, for CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 57.4 [51].

和历史对话 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货 陈栋 《盐铁论》记录了西汉时期关于盐铁官营等经济政策的辩论，其中蕴含的经济思想、国家干预与市场 自由的理念等，对当今的期货投资交易有着深刻的启示。 《盐铁论》中涉及了国家对重要资源的管控与市场调节之间的关系。在期货市场中，国家的宏观政策 就如同当时盐铁官营政策中的国家干预一样，对市场的走势有着至关重要的影响。例如，国家对于某些大 宗商品的储备政策、进出口政策等，都会直接或间接地影响该商品在期货市场上的价格波动。就像西汉时 期盐铁官营政策影响了盐铁的供应和价格一样，当国家增加某种商品的储备时，可能会减少市场上的供应 量，从而推动期货价格上涨；反之，当国家释放储备或鼓励进口时，可能会增加供应，导致期货价格下跌。 从市场参与者角度来看，《盐铁论》中贤良文学和大夫等不同群体代表了不同的利益诉求。在期货市 场中，也有着各种不同的参与者，如套期保值者、投机者等。套期保值者类似于当时希望通过稳定市场来 保障自身利益的生产者或消费者，他们利用期货市场来规避价格波动的风险，就像《盐铁论》中提到的一 些希望通过合理的经济政策来维持生产和生活稳定的人群。而投机者则更注重市场的短期波动，试图 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 铜价 短期宽幅整理 发表于 2026 年 1 月 21 日期货日报第六版 2026 年 1 月以来，沪铜在 10 万元/吨上方高位震荡，伦铜也在 1.3 万美元/吨一线波动。拉长周期看， 铜价自去年 9 月以来的上涨，主要由内外宏观政策宽松、海外矿山供应边际收缩以及需求强预期共同推动。 随着铜价持续上行，期货月间价差逐步收敛，同时电解铜库存持续累积，印证了当前市场"近弱远强"的 期现结构特征。 从宏观面看，全球金融环境正朝着显著宽松方向转变。在此背景下，全球主要股市普遍走高，大宗商 品市场同步迎来普涨行情。各类资产的表现分化，本质上是其基本面强弱差异的映射。而在本轮资产普涨 潮中，铜市表现尤为亮眼，于 2025 年四季度率先突破 2020 年无限量化宽松周期后的价格高点。这一强势 表现，得益于其供需基本面的坚实支撑。 从产业端看，首先，供应瓶颈将为铜价构筑坚实的底部支撑。中国作为全球最大精炼铜生产国，在负 加工费与产业政策限制的双重影响下，精炼铜产量增速可能明显放缓。其次，结构性需求为铜消费提供长 期增长动能。全球铜需求增长引擎已从传统领 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 股指震震荡整理为主 核心观点 今日各股指表现有所分化，中证 500 与中证 1000 表现较强，上证 50 与沪深 300 表现较弱。股市全市场成交额 26236 亿元，较上日缩量 1805 亿元。随着监管层降杠杆、控风险的政策信号，股市乐观情绪有所降温， 股市成交量能有所回落，股指步入震荡整理行情。从最新公布的宏观经 济指标来看，宏观经济具有较强韧性，但内需偏弱的问题仍存，未来宏 观政策托底需求的预期较为明确。另一方面，政策面扶持科技创新以及 提振消费的决心较强，后续一系列政策出台对中小盘的科技成长股构成 政策利好预期。短期内融资资金流入有所放缓，资金面对股指的推动作 用有所减弱，短期内股指上行空间与下行空间均有限。但是政策面利好 预期以及增量资金持续净流入股市的趋势中不变，股指中长期上行的主要 逻辑不变。总的来说，预计短期内股指震荡整理为主。 期权方面，由于股指中长期上行的逻辑较为牢靠，可以牛市价差的思 路对待。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实矛盾累积，钢矿弱势震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.35%日跌幅，量缩仓稳。现阶段， 螺纹需求虽有所改善，但持续性存疑，而供应弱稳运行，基本面延续季 节性弱势，叠加成本下行拖累，预计淡季钢价仍将承压，延续震荡偏弱 运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 日内有色企稳回升 沪镍 今日沪镍减仓反弹，主力期价尾盘站上 14.3 万关口。今日宏观氛 围回暖，商品和股市均有所走强。产业层面，镍矿港口库存高位季节 性下降，交易所镍库存高位持续累库。技术上，短期镍价在 14 万下方 屡次探底回升，有较强的技术支撑。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 有色金属 | 日报 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜沪铜跌破 10 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 28656 手，较前日增加 975 手 （+3.52%），近 10 个交易日仓单整体增加。 【供需关系】政策窗口期推动"抢出口"。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂走强 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 166740 元/吨，较前日 上涨 6240 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 21, the coke main contract was reported at 1,683.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday loss of 0.59%. The position volume of the main contract at the close was 38,400 lots, a decrease of 71 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market prices of Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port showed different trends. Currently, coke maintains a situation of weak supply and demand, with a weakening cost - support due to increased Mongolian coal imports and concerns about iron - water production cuts caused by steel mill accidents. The futures price remains weak at a low level [6][30]. - On January 21, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,129 points, down 1.83% intraday. The position volume of the main contract at the close was 515,400 lots, a decrease of 17,288 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port increased week - on - week. Overall, the import of Mongolian coal remains high, resulting in a situation of increased supply and stable demand for coking coal. Without policy intervention, coal prices may remain low before the Spring Festival [7][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Fiscal - financial coordinated policies to boost domestic demand have been implemented, including loan interest subsidies for small and medium - sized enterprises, a special guarantee plan for private investment, and optimized interest subsidy policies for service industry business entities and individual consumer loans [8]. - On January 21, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal being 1,640 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Same - Period Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,450 yuan/ton | - 2.03% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.84% | | Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,240 yuan/ton | 2.06% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Australian - produced coal at Jingtang Port | 1,550 yuan/ton | - 2.52% | 2.65% | 4.03% | 3.33% | | Shanxi - produced coal at Jingtang Port | 1,750 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 2.94% | 14.38% | 14.38% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Intraday Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Position Volume | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,683.5 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | 1,687.5 yuan/ton | 1,663 yuan/ton | | - 223,511 | 38,358 lots | - 71 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,129 points | - 1.83% | 1,131 points | 1,070 points | 616 | | 515,444 lots | - 17,288 lots | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [15][17][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [20][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production situation, coal - washing plant production situation, and coking - plant operation situation [27][29][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is similar to the core viewpoint. It is expected to maintain a low - level and weak operation due to factors such as the stalemate between coking enterprises and steel mills, weak supply - demand fundamentals, and weakened cost support [30]. - The outlook for coking coal is also in line with the core viewpoint. Without policy intervention, coal prices are likely to be suppressed by the fundamentals and remain low before the Spring Festival [31].