投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 7 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：从供需来看，安全生产月结束后，主产区煤炭产量逐步恢复，动力煤供应仍维持较高 水平。需求方面，7 月迎峰度夏关键时期，国内电煤需求季节性攀升，数据显示，截至 7 月 3 日， 沿海 8 省电厂煤炭日耗 208.7 万吨，周环比增 18.8 万吨；内陆 17 省电厂煤炭日耗 364.6 万吨， 周环比降 0.6 万吨。另外，国家气候中心最新预测显示，7 月 21 日至 8 月 5 日，我国大部地区气 温仍将高于常年同期，电煤需求预计维持高 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The main driving force is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year, and the market risk preference is positive recently [1][4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term trend is rising, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] 2. Driving Logic of Main Variety Price Quotes - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday and reference views of IF, IH, IC, and IM are oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. Last Friday, the stock indexes oscillated and rose, with a total market turnover of 1736.6 billion yuan, an increase of 221.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The rare earth permanent magnet and large - finance sectors led the gains, and both technology and dividends in the "dumbbell strategy" were favored. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly due to policy benefit expectations. The domestic inflation is weak, and there is a need for more policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations. The market risk preference is positive, and the stock index will oscillate strongly in the short term [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： ◼ 品种观点参考 获取每日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严 谨 管 理 开 拓 进 取 姓名：涂伟华 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：全国安全生产月结束，主产区停限产煤矿在整改完成后陆续恢复生产，动力煤供应迎 来小幅回升。需求方面，7 月以来国内气温进一步攀升，尤其是江浙等沿海用电大省的部分地区 最高气温突破 40℃，迎峰度夏居民制冷需求良好。国家气 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内甲醇产能持续释放，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供 应预期逐渐增大，港口迎来累库周期，而下游需求则步入淡季，供需结构趋于宽松。在经历前期大 幅回调以后，利空情绪得 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 产油国大幅增产，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 核心逻辑：由于中东地缘风险仍旧存在，原油溢价有所提升。在经历前期大幅回落以后，油市多头 信心再度增强，地缘溢价有所反弹。随着北半球夏季用油旺季到来，原油需求因子发力。不过近期 OPEC 和非 OPEC 产油国中的 8 个主要产油国决定 8 月增产 54.8 万桶/日 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和推动落后产能有序退出， 新一轮供给侧改革可能到来提振国内商品期货。目前胶市供应端处在割胶旺季，增量预期较强，月 环比产出压力较大。与此同时，下游需求偏弱，轮胎产销增速放缓，叠加终端需求迎来淡季。在偏 多氛围支撑下，本周四夜盘国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势，期价小幅收涨 1.19%至 14410 元/吨。预计本周五国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The core logic is that the US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, the dollar rebounded, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased, putting pressure on gold prices. However, the long - term de - dollarization and anti - globalization trends still support gold prices [1][2]. - For copper, the short - term view is an increase, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and strengthening trend. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the domestic macro - environment has improved, and although the US plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, copper prices are supported at the June price center [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Overseas gold prices have repeatedly rebounded after falling below $3300, and domestic Shanghai gold has rebounded after falling below 770 yuan [2]. - **Driving Factors**: The US non - farm data in early July exceeded expectations, reducing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The dollar index has been rising, putting pressure on gold prices. Technically, gold has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, but the long - term de - dollarization trend still supports gold [2]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded yesterday, with the open interest continuously decreasing [4]. - **Driving Factors**: Domestically, the macro - environment has improved, and the equity and commodity markets have generally risen. The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper from August 1st, which may lead to a decline in non - US copper demand. However, copper prices are supported at the June price center [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需双弱局面未变，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下降，但钢厂盈利状况较好， 需求减量空间有限。同时，港口到货虽迎来回升，但财年末冲量结束后矿商发运大幅减量，海外矿石 供应迎来收缩，相应的内矿生产趋弱，供应同样走弱。目前来看，供需双弱局面下矿石基本面并无实 质性 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 观点参考 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。6 月下旬以来，股指反弹较为明显，主要驱动力量来自于对 下半年的政策利好预期，包括对"反内卷"政策将会 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, treasury bond futures declined slightly. Due to the recent easing of external risks, the risk appetite of the domestic stock market has quickly recovered, greatly weakening the hedging demand for treasury bonds. Coupled with the low short - term expectation of interest rate cuts, treasury bond futures are consolidating at high levels. However, the domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The medium - and long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is still relatively solid. In general, the upside and downside of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, and they will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The driving logic is that yesterday's treasury bond futures declined slightly. The easing of external risks and the recovery of the domestic stock market's risk appetite weakened the hedging demand for treasury bonds. With low short - term interest rate cut expectations, treasury bond futures are at high - level consolidation. The weak domestic inflation, insufficient domestic demand growth momentum, and external demand vulnerability require a loose monetary environment in the second half of the year. The short - term movement of treasury bond futures is limited, and they will continue to oscillate [5].