投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 8 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 短期内股指震荡整理为主 核心观点 今日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市全天成交额 24631 亿元，较上日 放量 1148 亿元。股市成交金额从 3 万亿元回落至 2 万亿元的量级，说明短 期内市场存在一定分歧。由于部分股票前期涨幅较大，估值端提升较为明 显，获利资金的止盈需求上升导致短线上股指出现技术性调整。中长期来 看，政策利好预期与资金面宽松对股指构成较强支撑。未来政策面托底经济 需求的预期较为明确，反内卷与促消费政策从供需两端共同推动宏观回暖， 10 月是重磅政策的时间窗口，政策利好预期持续发酵。资金面，流动性偏 宽松的大背景下，权益资产的相对吸引力较强，将吸引增量资金持续净流 入，推动股票估值修复。总的来说，短期内股指预计以宽幅震荡为主，关注 前期获利资金止盈情况以及政策面利好预期发酵情况。 目前期权隐含波动率持续回升，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以继续持 有牛市价差或比例价差温和看多。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F303 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rose significantly. The weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data for August on the night of September 6 pushed the gold price to maintain a strong trend, with London gold approaching the $3,600 mark. The upward trend of the gold price since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22 was largely driven by the dovish stance of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the meeting. Although there were still differences regarding two or three interest rate cuts this year, the release of the August non-farm data further boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts. - On the night of September 6, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US non-farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, far lower than the market expectation of 75,000. The non-farm payrolls data for June was revised down sharply from an increase of 27,000 to a decrease of 13,000, the first monthly employment contraction since 2020. The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. - Since late August, the upward trend of the US stock market has slowed down, which has somewhat increased the market's risk aversion demand and the risk premium of precious metals. Technically, both New York gold and London gold have broken through the upper edge of the trading range since the second quarter, showing strong upward momentum. Attention can be paid to the pressure level of the April high of Shanghai gold in China. [4][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Trend**: No detailed description provided in the text, only related charts are mentioned. [8] - **Indicator Changes**: From August 29 to September 5, COMEX gold increased from $3,516.10 to $3,639.80, a rise of 3.52%; COMEX silver rose from $40.75 to $41.51, an increase of 1.87%; SHFE gold futures increased from 785.12 to 815.60, a rise of 3.88%; SHFE silver futures went up from 9,386.00 to 9,812.00, an increase of 4.54%. The US dollar index decreased from 97.85 to 97.73, a decline of 0.12%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB rose from 7.12 to 7.13, an increase of 0.06%. The 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased from 1.82 to 1.73, a decline of 0.09; the S&P 500 rose from 6,460.26 to 6,481.50, an increase of 0.33%; the US crude oil futures decreased from $64.01 to $61.97, a decline of 3.19%. The COMEX gold-silver ratio increased from 86.28 to 87.68, an increase of 1.62%; the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased from 83.65 to 83.12, a decline of 0.63%. The SPDR Gold ETF increased from 977.68 to 981.97, an increase of 4.29; the iShare Gold ETF rose from 456.34 to 459.94, an increase of 3.60. [9] 3.2 Weaker-than-Expected US Non-Farm Payrolls - Last week, the gold price maintained a strong upward trend, while the US dollar index and US Treasury yields showed weakness. The decline in US Treasury yields was obvious. On the one hand, the expectation of interest rate cuts led to a decline in short-term Treasury yields, which was transmitted to the long term. On the other hand, the expectation of a slowdown in the US economy led to a decline in long-term Treasury yields. - Last week, the US stock market rebounded after hitting a low, still maintaining a high-level volatile trend, and the market sentiment improved. [11][14] 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to the data on September 2, compared with the previous week, the long positions changed by 40,029 contracts, the short positions changed by 4,810 contracts, and the net long positions changed by 35,219 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than the gold ETF, but it has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. - Since late August, the holdings of gold ETFs have increased significantly. Last week, gold continued to rise, silver rose and then fell, and the gold-silver ratio showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. - The non-farm payrolls data was weaker than expected, which increased the expectation of US interest rate cuts and the expectation of economic slowdown. The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield was greater than that of the 2-year Treasury yield, and the 10-2 yield spread narrowed. [17][20][21] 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the significant increase in the gold price last week, the impact of the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data on the interest rate cut expectation, the rise in the market's risk aversion demand, and the strong upward momentum of gold prices from a technical perspective. [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices fluctuated with a continuous decline in open interest. Macroscopically, the non - farm payroll data in the US on Friday fell short of expectations, increasing concerns about economic downturn and negatively affecting copper prices. However, with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, industrial support will strengthen. Given the strong domestic and weak overseas macro environment, copper prices tend to fluctuate. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices had a narrow - range fluctuation with a slight decrease in open interest. Macroscopically, the US non - farm payroll data on Friday was disappointing, raising economic downturn concerns and being negative for aluminum prices. Domestically, the "anti - involution" sentiment resurfaced, which is positive for aluminum prices. At the industrial level, as China enters the "Golden September and Silver October" industrial peak season, industrial support is expected to continuously strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 20,800 mark [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices had a relatively strong fluctuation, with a slight increase at the end of the session and a slight decrease in open interest. Macroscopically, concerns about overseas economic downturn increased, having a relatively small impact on nickel, while the rising expectation of interest rate cuts is positive for nickel prices. At the industrial level, the nickel inventories in LME and SHFE continued to rise, which is negative for nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will tend to fluctuate [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In the SMM Shanghai copper spot market, there was a strong selling sentiment. Due to a large amount of imported goods arriving over the weekend and some supplementary domestic supplies, the inventory in Shanghai increased by 0.66 tons, and there were still imported goods continuously arriving [8]. - **Aluminum**: According to the SMM bauxite shipping data on September 5th, the weekly arrival volume of bauxite at domestic ports was 3.3958 million tons, a decrease of 1.4085 million tons compared with the previous week. The weekly departure volume of bauxite from major ports in Guinea was 2.2887 million tons, a decrease of 0.7957 million tons compared with the previous week, while that from major ports in Australia was 1.3036 million tons, an increase of 0.2816 million tons compared with the previous week. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea continues, and it is expected that the total import volume of bauxite in China in September will show a significant month - on - month decline. The shipping volume from Australia has rebounded, and the import volume of Australian bauxite in the past two months is expected to increase month - on - month [8]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 121,300 - 123,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,100 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][14][17] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][28][30] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 9 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货全天震荡下跌。一方面，由于短期内全面降息的必要性不足，短期内市场 利率下行空间有限，国债期货上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Short - term soybean meal futures prices face pressure in rebound and will run with a weak and volatile trend. The trading logic will return to the weak reality of the industrial chain [6]. - The market expects that the increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory this week may be limited due to lower production and strong exports. Short - term palm oil futures prices will fluctuate around energy attributes and industrial changes, mainly with wide - range oscillations [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [6]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic market is in the game between weak reality and strong expectations. Changes in Sino - US relations affect the procurement rhythm of imported soybeans and the South American soybean premium, which are continuously transmitted to the soybean meal market [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [8]. - **Core Logic**: The market expects that the increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory this week may be limited due to lower production and strong exports. The spill - over effect of recent international oil price fluctuations on the oil market continues to be reflected, and palm oil is still highly sensitive to crude oil futures price fluctuations [8]. Other Related Futures Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7]. - **Palm 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for thermal coal spot is "oscillation". The core logic is that as of September 4, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 22.552 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 32,500 tons and 52,700 tons lower than the same period last year. The rapid de - stocking of coal at northern ports during the peak summer demand period this year was one of the main factors supporting the previous rise in coal prices. With the subsequent weakening of demand, the port de - stocking speed will gradually slow down and start to accumulate inventory. The off - season expectation drives the price to run weakly, but there was positive news about "anti - involution" in the market this Friday. Although the coal industry is not in the scope of the nine "anti - involution" industries in the rumor, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether the coal industry association and coal enterprises will introduce new policies or self - discipline measures to cooperate with the "anti - involution" work [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - Time cycle definition: Short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For thermal coal spot, the intraday and medium - term reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is related to port coal inventory changes and market news about "anti - involution" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, both JM2601 and J2601 are expected to oscillate, with an intraday bias towards a stronger oscillation. The core logic for JM2601 is the reappearance of positive supply expectations leading to an upward rebound, while for J2601, it is the reappearance of cost support resulting in a strong performance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the JM2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all expected to oscillate, with an intraday bias towards a stronger oscillation. The reference view is oscillation, and the core logic is the reappearance of positive supply expectations driving an upward rebound [2]. - For the J2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all expected to oscillate, with an intraday bias towards a stronger oscillation. The reference view is oscillation, and the core logic is the reappearance of cost support enabling a strong performance [2]. 3.2 Price Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Black Sector 3.2.1 Coking Coal (JM) - The intraday view is a stronger oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. The reference view is oscillation. This week, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 693,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons; the daily output of coke was 1.1223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,200 tons; the daily output of molten iron was 2.2884 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 112,900 tons. The supply - demand data met the market's bearish expectations. However, the risk of the second - round fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy is being released, and strong expectations are driving the coking coal futures to strengthen again. The subsequent price trend of coking coal will depend on whether the coal industry association and enterprises will introduce new policies or self - regulatory measures to support the "anti - involution" work [6]. 3.2.2 Coke (J) - The intraday view is a stronger oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. The reference view is oscillation. At the end of August, the eighth round of price increase for coke was blocked, and on September 1st, some steel mills initiated the first round of price reduction, intensifying the industry chain game. The fundamental situation of coke has not improved significantly. The second - round fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy has warmed up the market sentiment, and the strong expectations on the cost side are supporting the upward rebound of coke futures. However, the sustainability of the upward movement also depends on whether specific policies will be introduced in the future [7].

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 预期现实博弈，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 反内卷消息扰动提振市场情绪，黑色金属震荡上行，而铁矿石供需格局并未好转，矿石终端消耗 大幅回落，且钢厂利润不断收缩，需求利好效应趋弱，相对利好则是假期补库预期。与此同时，国内 港口到货迎来回升，且海外矿商发运高位攀升，即便内矿生产受限，矿石供应有所增加。综上，矿石 需求开始趋弱 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated upwards with a daily increase of 1.06%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar have weakened, the fundamentals have not improved, inventory has been increasing, and steel prices are under pressure. With the relatively favorable peak - season expectation and rising costs, steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated higher with a daily increase of 1.03%, and trading volume and open interest expanded. At present, production has decreased due to production restrictions but can recover quickly. In contrast, demand resilience is weakening, the supply - demand imbalance in the hot - rolled coil industry continues to accumulate, inventory growth has widened, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively favorable factors are peak - season expectation and cost situation, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.77%, and trading volume and open interest shrank. Currently, iron ore demand is declining while supply is rising, the fundamentals of iron ore are likely to weaken, and high - valued ore prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively favorable factors are peak - season expectation and the intervention of arbitrage funds. The short - term ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5 with a term of 3 months to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [6]. - The expected tariff increase in the US led to a significant expansion of the US trade deficit in July. The trade deficit in July expanded to $78.3 billion, significantly higher than that in June. The import in July was $358.8 billion, a month - on - month increase of 5.9%; the export was $280.5 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The total trade deficit of goods and services increased by 32.5% month - on - month [7]. - In late August 2025, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 1.947 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% compared to the previous period; the average daily output of pig iron was 1.827 million tons, a decrease of 5.1%; the average daily output of steel products was 2.138 million tons, an increase of 4.4% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Rebar**: The spot prices in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,283 yuan [9]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The spot prices in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,380 yuan and 3,320 yuan respectively, and the national average price was 3,431 yuan [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 782 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 792 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | 3,143 | 1.06 | 1,385,167 | 1,737,894 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,340 | 1.03 | 534,944 | 1,300,035 | | Iron ore | 789.5 | 0.77 | 289,453 | 501,397 | [11] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: The report provides charts of weekly changes in rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) [14][16][22]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts of national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory are included [20][24][30]. - **Steel mill production situation**: Charts of 247 - steel - mill blast furnace开工率 and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace开工率, and 75 - building - material independent electric - arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation are provided [25][29][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed much. Production of construction steel mills has weakened, and rebar weekly output decreased by 18,800 tons. Demand is weak, and both weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions are at low levels. Steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom [32]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened. During the parade, production was restricted, and weekly output decreased by 105,000 tons. Demand continues to be weak, and the demand resilience is weakening. Steel prices will continue to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [33]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. Due to production restrictions, terminal consumption of iron ore has decreased significantly, and supply has increased. Ore prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: The main contract price of Shanghai copper increased with positions and stood above the 80,000 mark again. Due to the domestic market recovery and the arrival of the peak season, the upward momentum is strong [4]. - **沪铝**: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum increased without positions and reached the 20,700 level. With the market recovery and the peak season approaching, the industry support is expected to strengthen, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **沪镍**: The nickel price fluctuated strongly, and the position increased slightly. After the market digested the Indonesian demonstration disturbance, with the macro - recovery and industry - positive digestion, the bulls' willingness to close positions is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: After the September 3rd parade, the logistics supply in the North China electrolytic copper market returned to normal. As the copper price rose, downstream consumption was significantly suppressed, and the spot premium continued to decline. In mid - to - late September, smelters will have concentrated maintenance periods, and the market is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 122,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 200 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][36][37].