Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The domestic supply - demand of soybean meal remains loose, and its futures price will continue to oscillate at a low level. The near - month contracts are relatively resilient, but short - term rebound momentum is insufficient [5]. - Palm oil has stopped falling and rebounded in the short term due to the closing of short - profit positions after the release of pessimistic sentiment in Malaysian palm oil. However, the rebound height is restricted by subsequent export data and domestic arrival rhythm [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - based Views**: Short - term view is "oscillating weakly", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Although China's new purchases have boosted US soybean futures prices, they are still in low - level oscillation. Domestic soybean meal inventory has increased week - on - week, contract volume has dropped significantly, indicating reduced market purchasing willingness and shrinking forward orders. The rising oil refinery operating rate has further increased inventory pressure, and the spot price support is limited [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - based Views**: Short - term view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: After the release of pessimistic sentiment in Malaysian palm oil, the closing of short - profit positions in the previous continuous decline of the oil and fat sector has driven the price to stop falling and rebound. However, the oil and fat sector still faces heavy inventory pressure, and the rebound rhythm is affected by the international market. Palm oil is in a resonance stage of international export recovery, domestic inventory pressure relief, and capital game, but the short - term rebound space is restricted [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, with a short - term (within a week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) view of oscillation and an intraday view of being on the strong side. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations and the net capital inflow trend remain unchanged, but near the end of the year, the capital liquidity is tightening and the policy is in a window period, resulting in insufficient short - term upward driving force [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is on the strong side, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is the unchanged positive policy expectations and net capital inflow trend [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is on the strong side, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The previous day, each stock index oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The total stock market turnover was 191.53 billion yuan, an increase of 33.1 billion yuan compared with the previous day. In the long - term, the positive policy expectations and net capital inflow trend are favorable, providing strong support for the stock index. As the positive policy expectations for 2026 gradually ferment, market risk appetite is rising and the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate is increasing. However, near the end of the year, the capital liquidity is tightening and the policy is in a window period, so the short - term upward driving force is insufficient [5]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and show a stronger trend intraday, with an overall outlook of stronger operation due to increased geopolitical risks [1] - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The US pressure on Venezuela may lead to a global crude oil supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices, and the domestic crude oil futures may maintain a stable pattern on Wednesday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - **Short - term**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile (within one week) [1] - **Medium - term**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile (from two weeks to one month) [1] - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to show a stronger trend, with a reference view of stronger operation [1][5] 3.2 Price Movement Driving Logic - The main driving force for the recent oil price rebound is the sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation. The US government has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned tankers and plans to seize more tankers. About 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela's oil exports in November were about 600,000 barrels per day. The decrease in the number of tankers going to Venezuela has led to concerns about a global supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a short - term upward outlook. The main driving forces are the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut in early December, the rise in market risk appetite and liquidity, and the rebound in short - term liquidity after the implementation of the yen's interest rate hike on December 19. Macro - level easing promotes the general rise of assets, pushing gold prices to break through upwards. [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a long - term upward outlook. The macro - level atmosphere has warmed up after the implementation of the yen's interest rate hike, the US dollar has remained weak, and non - ferrous metals have generally risen. Although high copper prices suppress consumption in the industrial level, short - term macro factors drive copper prices up with strong upward momentum. [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices rose strongly. New York gold and London gold successively broke through the $4500 mark, and Shanghai gold broke through the 1000 - yuan mark. [3] - **Driving Factors**: In the short - term, the main driving force for the upward movement of gold prices comes from the monetary policies of the US and Japanese central banks. Since the end of October, Sino - US relations have eased, and gold prices have been under pressure and maintained high - level oscillations. Now, macro - level easing has promoted the general rise of assets, pushing gold prices to break through upwards. [3] - **Technical Analysis**: If there is a pull - back, attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: After the Asian session yesterday, copper prices continued to strengthen. LME copper broke through the $12,000 mark, and Shanghai copper opened higher at night, breaking through the 95,000 - yuan mark and approaching the 96,000 - yuan mark before pulling back. [4] - **Driving Factors**: At the macro - level, after the implementation of the yen's interest rate hike, the macro - atmosphere has warmed up, the US dollar has remained weak, and non - ferrous metals have generally risen. At the industrial level, high copper prices suppress consumption, the basis and monthly spreads continue to weaken, and the futures price shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. [4] - **Technical Analysis**: If there is a pull - back, attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 24, 2025, including power coal, energy and chemical products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. [1][5][20][26][40][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the basis of power coal was -83.4, -90.4, -98.4, -106.4, -114.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decreasing trend. The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0.0 yuan/ton. [2] 2. Energy and Chemical Products (1) Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio**: Data on basis, ratio, and other indicators of fuel oil, crude oil, asphalt, and INE crude oil from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 23 was -2.12 yuan/ton. [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 23 was -440 yuan/ton. [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol for 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are given. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber was -25 yuan/ton. [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 23 was 1575 yuan/ton. [10] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal for 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar was 9.0 yuan/ton. [19] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 23 was 4.03. [19] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on December 23 was 212.0 yuan/ton. [20] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis**: The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on December 23 was -380 yuan/ton. [27] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profits and losses of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 13.16. [34] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 23 was -84 yuan/ton. [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products for 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are given. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 38 yuan/ton. [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on December 23 was 2.83. [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 23 was 49.33. [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter are given. For example, the next - month - current - month inter - period spread of CSI 300 was -16.4. [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy is undergoing a structural transformation from "urban investment - real estate" to "industry - consumption" drive, with changes in core economic contradictions, transmission mechanisms, and cycle laws, and some analysis paradigms need optimization. The importance of fiscal policy is increasing, and more attention is paid to industry analysis on the supply side, while the demand side is shifting from investment - driven to consumption - driven. The old economy, though no longer the main economic engine, can still provide growth elasticity if it stabilizes marginally [29]. - Some investors' concerns about banks' long - term bond - holding capacity may be excessive. In the short term, the ultra - long - term bond market may continue to fluctuate, but in the long run, upward adjustment may face resistance [29]. - Near the end of the year, wealth management may face a certain pressure to return to the balance sheet, but the demand for credit bonds may remain relatively stable. Credit bond yields may fluctuate with interest - rate bonds, and there are trading opportunities in high - quality central - state - owned enterprise real estate bonds [30]. - In 2026, the stock market's upward momentum may shift from single - valuation - driven to "profit + valuation" double - driven. The overall performance of listed companies is expected to improve, and the market may attract more new funds [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year. In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, social financing increased by 24885 billion yuan, up from 8161 billion yuan last year. M0 increased by 10.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but down from 12.7% in the same period last year; M1 increased by 4.9%, down from 6.2% in the previous month but up from - 0.7% in the same period last year; M2 increased by 8.0%, down from 8.2% in the previous month but up from 7.1% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, new RMB loans from financial institutions reached 3900 billion yuan, up from 2200 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 5800 billion yuan in the same period last year. CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, down from - 2.1% in the previous month but up from - 2.5% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reminded members and investors to strengthen risk prevention due to unstable market factors and volatile precious - metal prices. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees, daily price limits, and margin requirements for platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate futures contracts, and restricted the daily opening volume of polysilicon futures contracts to strengthen market risk management [2][3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On December 24, international gold prices hit a record high, breaking through $4500 per ounce, driven by the escalating situation in Venezuela and expectations of further interest - rate cuts in the US next year. Spot platinum exceeded $2300 per ounce, and spot silver reached a historical high of $71.58 per ounce [4][5]. - Copper prices hit a record high, breaking through $12000 per ton, with a cumulative increase of about 37% this year, due to mine shutdowns and trade disruptions caused by Trump's tariff policies. Domestic gold - jewelry prices also rose, with some brands' pure - gold jewelry prices exceeding 1400 yuan per gram [5]. - The tin industry association called for rationality as tin prices deviated from fundamentals. The lithium industry's Q3 performance improved, with rising lithium carbonate futures prices in November. Market inventory decreased, and demand from new - energy vehicles and energy storage was strong [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In November, domestic steel prices fluctuated narrowly, with a significant decline in crude steel production and high social inventory, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. In December, prices continued to fluctuate narrowly due to multiple factors [9]. - China's first million - ton near - zero - carbon steel production line in Zhanjiang was fully connected, using hydrogen metallurgy and electric smelting technology, reducing carbon emissions by 50% - 80% compared with traditional processes [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On December 23, US oil prices rose due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by US actions against Venezuelan oil tankers. As of December 16, crude - oil speculators increased their net short positions in WTI [10][11]. - Serbia extended its natural gas supply agreement with Russia until March 31, 2026, ensuring winter energy supply. Russia attacked Ukrainian oil and gas exploration facilities [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the pig inventory in the fourth quarter increased by 0.6% year - on - year [12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 23, the central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan as 1353 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank will conduct 2100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders on December 26 [13][14]. 3.3.2 Key News - President Xi Jinping emphasized that central enterprises should focus on their core businesses, enhance core competitiveness, and promote innovation and reform. Premier Li Qiang called on central enterprises to play important roles in infrastructure construction, supply - chain stability, and technological self - reliance [15]. - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed that local governments adjust real - estate policies, and promote the construction of a new real - estate development model, including project - company system, lead - bank system, and spot - housing sales system [16]. - The US FCC included foreign - made drones and components in the "unreliable suppliers list," and China firmly opposed this. The RMB exchange rate strengthened recently, driven by a weakening US dollar and year - end settlement demand [17]. - In 2025, local - government debt issuance exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and local governments plan to issue more bonds in Q1 2026, with an expected scale of over 1 trillion yuan, to support economic growth [18]. - The "AI bond - issuance wave" pushed US corporate bond issuance close to the historical record, with AI - related borrowing accounting for about 30% of US investment - grade bond net issuance [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market strengthened, with 30 - year treasury - bond futures rising nearly 1%. Interest - rate bond yields generally declined, and the inter - bank market funds were abundant. Some corporate bonds, such as those of Vanke, fluctuated, and convertible - bond indexes declined [24][25]. - Most money - market interest rates declined, and the yields of European bonds decreased, while US bond yields showed mixed trends [26][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign - Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 95 points to 7.0287, and the RMB central parity rate rose 49 points to 7.0523. The US dollar index fell 0.37%, and most non - US currencies rose [28]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market fluctuated slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.41%. Lithium - battery and lithography - machine sectors strengthened, while tourism stocks declined. Three new stocks had significant gains [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.11%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.69%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.29%. Gold and wind - power stocks led the rise, while technology stocks were mostly weak. Some new stocks had large price fluctuations [33]. - The new - issue scale of equity funds exceeded 400 billion shares this year, setting a new record. Many public - fund institutions held 2026 strategy meetings to discuss investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, consumption, and innovative drugs [33][34].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 23 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1741 元/吨，日内录得 0.26%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.93 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +775 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/ 吨，周环比持平。当前，焦炭供需格局未明显改善，但下游冬储补库预期 和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌反弹，关注后续钢厂补库节奏。 焦煤：12 月 23 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1125.5 点，日内上涨 1.90%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.92 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+8361 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平， 折合期货仓单成本约 1116 元/吨。目前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随 着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主 力合约低位反弹， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪弱稳，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.19%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端低位企稳，淡季基本面并未改善，钢价继续承压，相对 利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预计螺纹维持低位震荡运行态势，关注 钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.21%日涨幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位去化 有限，相对利好的是政策利好预期，预计热卷价 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **沪铜**: The Shanghai copper market maintained a volatile trend today with a slight decline in open interest. The weakening US dollar index is favorable for non - ferrous metals, but there is strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The London copper is approaching the $12,000 mark, and the Shanghai copper is approaching the high of early December, facing strong technical pressure and high willingness of long - position holders to close positions. Pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average during the correction [6]. - **沪铝**: In the morning, the Shanghai aluminum market saw a sharp decline with reduced positions, followed by a V - shaped rebound, and the overall open interest decreased significantly. The weakening US dollar index is positive for non - ferrous metals, but the basis and calendar spread remain weak, with strong industrial constraints. The aluminum price has rebounded to the previous high, and technical pressure should be noted [7]. - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel market increased positions and rose again today, with the main contract price reaching the 123,000 mark. After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, non - ferrous metals generally rose. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, increasing the expectation of industrial policy disruptions and driving up the nickel price. The strong spot premium also supports the nickel price. The Shanghai nickel has changed from a position - reducing rebound to a position - increasing rebound, breaking through the high of early December, and has strong upward momentum in the short term [8]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On December 22, the China Household Electrical Appliances Association stated that due to the soaring copper price, the "aluminum - for - copper" in the household air - conditioning industry has become a hot topic. The association put forward five initiatives, including scientific division of promotion areas and price ranges for aluminum - for - copper products, strengthening industry self - discipline, accelerating the formulation of standards for aluminum heat exchangers in household air conditioners [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 23, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,500 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 125,250 yuan/ton, up 3,450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 6,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium and discount ranged from - 200 to 400 yuan/ton. On December 19, Mysteel reported that the APNI revealed the ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore in early 2026, and one of the revision points is to levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [11]. Group 4: Related Charts Copper - **Copper basis**: Chart 1 shows the copper basis [12]. - **Domestic visible inventory**: Chart 3 shows the domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory) [13]. - **LME copper cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart 5 shows the LME copper cancelled warrant ratio [14]. - **Overseas copper exchange inventory**: Chart 4 shows the overseas copper exchange inventory [19]. - **SHFE warrant inventory**: Chart 6 shows the SHFE warrant inventory [20]. Aluminum - **Aluminum basis**: Chart 7 shows the aluminum basis [24]. - **Domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum**: Chart 9 shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [26]. - **SHFE - LME ratio**: Chart 8 shows the SHFE - LME ratio [28]. - **Aluminum calendar spread**: Chart 10 shows the aluminum calendar spread [30]. - **Overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum**: Chart 11 shows the overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX) [32]. - **Aluminum rod inventory**: Chart 12 shows the aluminum rod inventory [34]. Nickel - **Nickel basis**: Chart 13 shows the nickel basis [36]. - **LME inventory**: Chart 15 shows the LME inventory [38]. - **LME nickel trend**: Chart 17 shows the LME nickel trend [40]. - **Nickel calendar spread**: Chart 14 shows the nickel calendar spread [42]. - **SHFE inventory**: Chart 16 shows the SHFE inventory [44]. - **Nickel ore port inventory**: Chart 18 shows the nickel ore port inventory [46].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market conditions. It shows that the global economy is facing various factors such as geopolitical tensions, policy changes, and market fluctuations, which have different impacts on different industries and markets. For example, geopolitical factors in Venezuela and the EU's sanctions on Russia affect the energy market, while the "aluminum - for - copper" trend in the home appliance industry is influenced by the soaring copper price [5][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew at a 4.8% year - on - year rate, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50% in the same period last year. - The year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in November 2025 were 10.6%, 4.9%, and 8% respectively. The growth rate of M1 decreased from 6.2% in the previous month, while M2 decreased from 8.2% in the previous month [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively in December 2025, for the seventh consecutive month, due to stable policy rates and pressure on the banking industry's net interest margin. - Starting from December 23, 2025, China will impose temporary counter - subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU, with ad - valorem subsidy rates ranging from 21.9% to 42.7%. - Multiple exchanges, including the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, Shanghai Gold Exchange, and China Financial Futures Exchange, have announced fee - reduction or exemption policies for 2026. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading fees for silver futures to cool the market [2][3][4]. Metals - On December 22, platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit, with the platinum futures main contract 2606 closing at 568.45 yuan/gram, up 6.99%, and the palladium futures main contract 2606 at 508.45 yuan/gram, up 7%. The spot platinum in the overseas market broke through the $2000/ounce mark for the first time since 2008. - Spot gold reached $4400/ounce for the first time, up about 1.4%. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains strong due to factors like the reconstruction of the credit currency system and central banks' continuous gold purchases. - The "aluminum - for - copper" trend in the home appliance industry has become a hot topic due to the soaring copper price. The China Household Electrical Appliances Association has put forward five initiatives. - Precious metals and rare metals such as silver and tungsten have seen significant price increases. The annual increase of silver has reached 137%, and that of tungsten concentrate 202%. In the past week, silver rose 8.27%, and tungsten powder rose about 18%. - Hong Kong plans to focus on developing the gold market next year, aiming to increase its gold storage to at least 2000 tons in the next three years and launch a central settlement system for gold contract trading [5][6][7]. Coal, Coking, Steel and Minerals - Six special working groups have carried out inspections in 12 key regions across the country to crack down on illegal mining and seal up abandoned mine holes. - In November 2025, India's major industries showed mixed growth. Crude oil production decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, while coal, steel, cement, and fertilizer production increased by 2.1%, 6.1%, 14.5%, and 5.6% respectively. Electricity production decreased by 2.2% [8]. Energy and Chemicals - On December 22, 2025, domestic refined oil prices were lowered. Gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by 170 yuan/ton and 165 yuan/ton respectively. - On December 22, the main contract of US crude oil rose due to the escalating situation in Venezuela, which raised concerns about supply. - The EU decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for six more months until July 31, 2026, and introduced special counter - measures against sanctions - evading behaviors [9][10]. Agricultural Products - CBOT wheat and soybean prices rose due to the escalating Russia - Ukraine tension, which raised concerns about agricultural product exports in the Black Sea region. Chicago wheat futures rose up to 1.7%, and soybean futures up to 0.7%. - The US Department of Agriculture reported the export inspection volumes of soybeans, wheat, and corn, as well as the weekly export sales of various agricultural products in the next sales year [11]. Financial News Open Market - On December 22, the central bank conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 130.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 63.6 billion yuan. - The central bank issued 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong at a winning bid rate of 1.67% [12]. Key News - The central bank introduced a one - time credit repair policy for personal overdue information from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2025, with a single amount not exceeding 10,000 yuan. If the overdue debt is fully repaid by March 31, 2026, the information will not be shown in the credit report. - Vanke's 2 - billion - yuan bond extension plan was rejected again, but it won a 30 - trading - day grace period. Vanke's subsidiary also extended the investment term of a 2.62 - billion - yuan insurance - related debt plan by one year. - The State Council is working on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and plans to launch major projects to drive economic growth. - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs in December 2025 remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive month. - The Ministry of Commerce imposed temporary counter - subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU. - The Central Economic Work Conference deployed key reform tasks for next year, aiming to enhance economic vitality. - The draft revision of the Banking Supervision and Management Law was submitted for the first review, aiming to strengthen supervision of major shareholders and actual controllers of banking financial institutions. - The China Financial Futures Exchange will halve the delivery fees for stock index futures and treasury bond futures and the exercise (performance) fees for stock index options in 2026. - In November and December 2025, institutions increased their bond allocation. Insurance companies accelerated their bond issuance, and many banks adjusted their deposit business to stabilize the net interest margin. - There were multiple bond - related events, including Vanke's bond extension issues, and some companies' credit rating changes [14][15][16][17][18]. Bond Market - The Chinese bond market weakened overall. The yield of the 30 - year active bond "25 Super Long Special Treasury Bond 06" rose by more than 1bp, and the 30 - year main contract of treasury bond futures fell 0.28%. - In the exchange - traded bond market, Vanke's bonds showed mixed performance. The Wande Real Estate Bond 30 Index and the Wande High - Yield Urban Investment Bond Index rose slightly. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.55%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.61%. - Most money market interest rates declined, while the performance of European and US bond yields was mixed [19][20][21][22]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar closed at 7.0382 on December 22, up 28 points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate was 7.0572, down 22 points. - The US dollar index fell 0.46% in New York trading, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [23]. Research Reports - CITIC Securities believes that the long - term and ultra - long - term bond yields are volatile at the end of the year, mainly due to the pressure on banks' liability side. In the long run, ultra - long - term bonds still have allocation value. - Huatai Fixed Income suggests continuing to layout convertible bonds on dips, paying attention to style switching, and taking weight - based varieties as the bottom position. - Huatai Fixed Income also believes that the bond market is currently desensitized to fundamentals, and institutions should focus on short - term and medium - term bonds. - CITIC Securities' chief economist Ming Ming believes that the US employment market is weak, and the Fed may cut interest rates by about 50bps next year [24][25]. Today's Reminders - On December 23, 205 bonds will be listed, 112 bonds will be issued, 72 bonds will require payment, and 135 bonds will pay principal and interest [26][27]. Stock Market - The A - share market rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.23%. The trading volume reached 1.88 trillion yuan. Hainan Free Trade Port concept stocks and the semiconductor industry chain were strong, while pharmaceutical business stocks declined. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.43%, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.87%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.43%. Semiconductor and gold stocks rose, and four new stocks broke their issue prices [28].