1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil lacks fundamental drivers and the strategy is to buy on dips [1] - Soybean oil is waiting for the South American sowing season and is in a volatile adjustment phase [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,320 yuan/ton with a -0.94% change, (night session) 9,440 yuan/ton with a 1.29% change; trading volume was 87 lots with an increase of 84 lots, and open interest was 1,138 lots with a decrease of 87 lots [1] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,420 yuan/ton with a -0.43% change, (night session) 8,398 yuan/ton with a -0.26% change; trading volume was 242 lots with an increase of 132 lots, and open interest was 2,746 lots with a decrease of 242 lots [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,930 yuan/ton with a -0.20% change, (night session) 9,839 yuan/ton with a -0.92% change; trading volume was 200 lots with an increase of 150 lots, and open interest was 5,096 lots with a decrease of 25 lots [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,488 ringgit/ton with a 0.88% change (day session) and 0.00% change (night session) [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 51.40 cents/pound with a 0.33% change [1] 3.1.2 Spot - Palm oil (24 degrees, Guangdong): Spot price was 9,350 yuan/ton with a -30 yuan/ton change [1] - Grade 1 soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,740 yuan/ton with a 10 yuan/ton change [1] - Grade 4 imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,790 yuan/ton with no change [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract): Spot price was 1,105 dollars/ton with no change [1] 3.1.3 Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was 30 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 320 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was -140 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Spread - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: Previous trading day was 369 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 292 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: Previous trading day was -1,050 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was -1,076 yuan/ton [1] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: Previous trading day was 212 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 232 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: Previous trading day was 292 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 314 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: Previous trading day was 315 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 245 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SPPOMA: From September 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 5.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.11% month - on - month, and production decreased by 6.28% month - on - month [2] - USDA: As of September 7, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63%, previous week was 65%, and same period last year was 65%; pod - setting rate was 97%, previous week was 94%, same period last year was 97%, and five - year average was 97%; leaf - dropping rate was 21%, previous week was 11%, same period last year was 23%, and five - year average was 22% [3][4] - AgRural: Brazilian farmers have started planting the 2025/26 soybean crop, and as of last Thursday, the sowing rate was 0.02%, while last year's sowing had not started at the same time [4] - Safras & Mercado: Predicted 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production is 1.8092 billion tons, a 5.3% increase from last year's 1.7184 billion tons; new - season planting area is about 48.21 million hectares, a 1.2% increase from the previous year; average yield per unit area is expected to increase from 3,625 kg/hectare to 3,771 kg/hectare; 2026 Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 108 million tons, the same as the July forecast, a 3% increase from 2025's 105 million tons; 2026 soybean crushing volume forecast is raised from 59 million tons to 59.5 million tons, and 2025's forecast is raised from 57 million tons to 58 million tons [4] - Safras & Mercado: In 2026, Brazilian soybean meal production is expected to reach 46.708 million tons, a 3% increase; exports are expected to increase by 4% to 24 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to be 20.7 million tons, an 8% increase; inventory is expected to increase by 38% to 7.295 million tons; year - end inventory is expected to decrease by 17% to 229,000 tons; soybean oil production is expected to increase by 3% to 11.603 million tons, exports are expected to decrease by 17% to 1 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to increase by 6% to 10.8 million tons, and biofuel use is expected to increase by 6% to 6.2 million tons [5] - SOPA: Urged the Indian government to raise the import tariff of vegetable oils by at least 10%, warned that low domestic prices are forcing farmers to abandon oilseed crops, soybean planting area has decreased by more than 5% this year, and market prices have been below the minimum support price; Indian government reduced the import tariff of vegetable oils including soybean oil from 20% to 10% in May 2025 to ease inflation, but the tariff of refined edible oils remained at 35.75% [6] - APK - Inform: Lowered the 2025/26 Ukrainian soybean export forecast from 3.69 million tons to 2.63 million tons and the 2025/26 Ukrainian sunflower oil export forecast from 5.7 million tons to 5.67 million tons [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [7]

短纤：短期反弹 瓶片：短期反弹 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 2025 年 09 月 09 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 0 | 6250 | -6250 | PF09-10 | -6.372 | -98 | -6.274 | | PF | 短纤2510 | 6372 | 6348 | 24 | PF10-11 | 1 4 | 18 | -4 | | | 短纤2511 | 6358 | 6330 | 28 | PF基差 | 78 | 87 | -9 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 205170 | 168093 | 37077 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 450 | 6. 435 | 15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 170693 ...

2025 年 9 月 9 日 生猪：现货情绪转弱，中枢下移 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 13730 | | -300 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 13450 | | -300 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 14240 | | -1000 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | | 13305 | | -20 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | | 13760 | | 0 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 13 ...

2025 年 9 月 9 日 沥青：油价起落反复，库存整体去化 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,465 | -0.06% | 3,443 | -0.63% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,440 | 0.09% | 3,415 | -0.73% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 60,865 | (25,802) | 45,780 | (9,046) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 189,467 | (58,562) | 242,529 | 1,132 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 65160 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...

2025 年 09 月 09 日 工业硅：逢高布空思路 多晶硅：情绪扰动，关注仓单注册情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,530 | -290 | 35 | -125 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 470,695 | -92,591 | 110,839 | 74,585 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 289,571 | 3,026 | 4,122 | 65,181 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 55,710 | -1,025 | 3,425 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 456,880 | -208,362 | ...

2025年09月09日 | 铁矿石：下游开工恢复预期支撑原料估值 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪扰动，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 9 日 铁矿石：下游开工恢复预期支撑原料估值 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 0. 32% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 792. 0 | 2.5 | | | | I 2601 | | | ...

2025年09月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农数据超预期 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，限制价格下跌 | 4 | | 锌：等待指引 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：弱势运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：窄幅震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：现实与预期博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 13 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2510 | 822.86 | 0.89% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 820.77 | 1.12% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2510 | 3677.60 | 1.04% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | # ...

| 镍：窄幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现实与预期博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：权益市场情绪偏强，基本面制约上方空间 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高布空思路 | 6 | | 多晶硅：情绪扰动，关注仓单注册情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年09月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | 2025 年 9 月 9 日 镍：窄幅震荡运行 不锈钢：现实与预期博弈，钢价或震荡运行 商 品 研 究 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 122,140 | 830 | -1,310 | 1,830 | 290 | -60 | | 期 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-09-09 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 2025-09-09 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 8 月我国出口同比增速 4.4% 观点分享： 9 月 8 日，海关总署公布 8 月进出口数据：8 月我国出口商品 3218.1 亿美元，同比增速 为 4.4%，前值 7.2%；进口 2194.8 亿美元，增速 1.3%，前值 4.1%，贸易顺差 1023 亿美 元，前值 982 亿美元。8 月出口增速出现回落，影响因素有高基数效应、抢出口和转口贸易 的支撑。我们认为后续出口形势或将逐步承压，一是北美进口货量集中前移至上半年，预计 下半年增速将回落；二是美国对中国的关税处于历史最高水平，东南亚主要国家与中国关税 的比较优势明显，订单回流难度较大；墨西哥政府打算在 2026 年预算提案中提高对中国进 口商品的关税，此举将遏制中国商品经墨西哥转口美国。中国的出口环境不确定性将增强。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 棉花 | ★★★★ | 棉花：新棉即将上市，旺季需求不旺，令郑棉期货高位回落。国内棉花旧作库存偏紧已经 ...

2025年09月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面驱动不足，回调布多为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：等待南美播种季，震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：市场氛围影响，震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：关注新棉上市情况 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰略不及预期 | 9 | | 生猪：现货情绪转弱，中枢下移 | 10 | | 花生：关注新花生上市 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 9 日 棕榈油：基本面驱动不足，回调布多为主 豆油：等待南美播种季，震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,320 | 涨跌幅 -0.94% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,440 | 涨跌幅 1.29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...