Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][6]. - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are pushed up by macro sentiment and are expected to fluctuate strongly [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are driven by anti-involution sentiment and are expected to fluctuate strongly [2][12][13]. - Coke is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][16]. - Coking coal resonates with the macro and sector themes and is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][17]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 1.51%. The open interest decreased by 6,094 lots. The prices of imported and some domestic ores increased slightly. The basis and some spreads changed [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino-US relations and common concerns [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 increased, with the latter rising 1.21%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The spot prices in various regions increased, and the basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce support eligible commercial real estate projects to issue REITs. The 15th Five-Year Plan proposes directions for the high-quality development of the steel industry. Steel production and inventory data for October 23 and September 2025 are provided, and the steel inventory of key enterprises in early October increased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 1 [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts increased. The spot prices of some products changed, and the basis, spreads, and cross-variety spreads also changed [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are reported. A large ferrosilicon factory in Gansu reduced production, and a steel mill in Zhejiang set a purchase price for silicomanganese. The production of silicomanganese in northern regions in October decreased [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke contracts increased significantly. The spot prices of some coking coal and coke products changed, and the basis and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino-US relations and common concerns [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed. The spot prices of different types of logs in various regions remained stable or changed slightly [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino-US relations and common concerns [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [22].

2025 年 10 月 30 日 尿素：基本面有压力，宏观偏强，震荡博弈 | 杨鈜汉 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,644 | 1,635 | 9 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,643 | 1,635 | 8 | | | | | 成交量 （手） | 150,565 | 102,573 | 47992 | | （01合约） | | | 持仓量 （手） | 270,349 | 273,001 | -2652 | | | | | （吨） 仓单数量 | 0 | 2,970 | -2970 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 494,776 | 335,420 | 159355 | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trends of various futures on October 30, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong, weak, or sideways - moving state, and gives corresponding resistance and support levels [2][3]. - The report also provides the trading performance of various futures on October 29, 2025, and the expected trends for the entire month of October 2025 [13][37][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 30, 2025, it is expected to move sideways. IF2512 has resistance at 4750 and 4780 points, and support at 4719 and 4700 points; IH2512 has resistance at 3080 and 3090 points, and support at 3058 and 3045 points; IC2512 has resistance at 7470 and 7500 points, and support at 7350 and 7300 points; IM2512 has resistance at 7519 and 7550 points, and support at 7416 and 7365 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 is likely to move strongly, with resistance at 108.70 and 108.85 yuan, and support at 108.43 and 108.31 yuan; the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 is likely to move in a wide - range, with resistance at 116.5 and 116.8 yuan, and support at 115.6 and 115.4 yuan [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2512 is likely to move weakly, with support at 910.0 and 900.4 yuan/gram, and resistance at 923.6 and 928.6 yuan/gram; the silver futures contract AG2512 is likely to move weakly, with support at 11210 and 11100 yuan/kg, and resistance at 11483 and 11575 yuan/kg [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the copper futures contract CU2512 is likely to move strongly, will attack the resistance at 89500 and 90000 yuan/ton, and support at 88300 and 87800 yuan/ton, and may hit a new high since listing; the aluminum futures contract AL2512 is likely to move strongly, with resistance at 21370 and 21480 yuan/ton, and support at 21220 and 21200 yuan/ton; the alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to move weakly, will test the support at 2836 and 2814 yuan/ton, and resistance at 2886 and 2898 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 is likely to move sideways, with resistance at 83800 and 85700 yuan/ton, and support at 82200 and 81700 yuan/ton; the rebar futures contract RB2601 is likely to move sideways, with resistance at 3150 and 3167 yuan/ton, and support at 3111 and 3090 yuan/ton; the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2601 is likely to move sideways, with resistance at 3355 and 3375 yuan/ton, and support at 3333 and 3306 yuan/ton; the iron ore futures contract I2601 is likely to move in a wide - range, with resistance at 809 and 815 yuan/ton, and support at 803 and 800 yuan/ton; the coking coal futures contract JM2601 is likely to move in a wide - range, with resistance at 1313 and 1328 yuan/ton, and support at 1277 and 1263 yuan/ton; the glass futures contract FG601 is likely to move weakly, will test the support at 1091 and 1072 yuan/ton, and resistance at 1127 and 1137 yuan/ton; the soda ash futures contract SA601 is likely to move weakly, will test the support at 1239 and 1224 yuan/ton, and resistance at 1260 and 1273 yuan/ton; the crude oil futures contract SC2512 is likely to move strongly, will attack the resistance at 467 and 471 yuan/barrel, and support at 458 and 455 yuan/barrel; the PTA futures contract TA601 is likely to move sideways, with resistance at 4678 and 4700 yuan/ton, and support at 4614 and 4590 yuan/ton; the PVC futures contract V2601 is likely to move strongly, with resistance at 4819 and 4861 yuan/ton, and support at 4757 and 4746 yuan/ton; the soybean meal futures contract M2601 is likely to move strongly, will attack the resistance at 2997 and 3020 yuan/ton, and support at 2965 and 2957 yuan/ton; the natural rubber futures contract RU2601 is likely to move weakly, with support at 15340 and 15210 yuan/ton, and resistance at 15630 and 15760 yuan/ton [3][4][5][7]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - Diplomatic news includes a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30, 2025, and China's response to soybean purchases from the US [8]. - Domestic economic policies involve further deepening of capital market reform, opening up of the financial sector, 9 policies for cross - border trade facilitation, and the "Urban Business Quality Improvement Action Plan" [8]. - Domestic economic data shows that in the first 9 months of this year, state - owned enterprises' total operating income was 61.33 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; total profit was 3.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; as of the end of September, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points; as of the end of September, the number of participants in basic old - age, unemployment, and work - related injury insurance nationwide was 1074 million, 248 million, and 304 million respectively, and the cumulative balance of the three social insurance funds was 9.85 trillion yuan [8][9]. - International economic news includes the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, the end of balance - sheet reduction from December 1, the Bank of Canada's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, and France's increase in the digital tax rate on tech companies [9][10]. Commodity Futures - related Information - On October 29, 2025, international precious metal futures generally closed down, COMEX gold futures fell 1.04% to 3941.7 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 0.1% to 47.275 US dollars/ounce; US crude oil futures rose, with the main contract up 0.35% to 60.36 US dollars/barrel, Brent crude oil futures rose 0.64% to 64.24 US dollars/barrel; London base metals showed mixed results [11][12]. - Over the past four years, gold has become the main savings method for Russian people, and it is expected that Russia's retail gold purchases will reach 62.2 tons this year; since the Russia - Ukraine conflict, Russian people have accumulated 282 tons of gold purchases [13]. - On October 29, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0991 at 16:30, up 15 basis points from the previous trading day, hitting a new high in nearly a year; the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell 9 basis points to 7.0968; the US dollar index rose 0.43% to 99.16, and most non - US currencies fell [13]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the CSI 300 stock index futures contract IF2512 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, and closed at 4732.6 points, up 1.23%; the SSE 50 stock index futures contract IH2512 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose slightly, and closed at 3064.8 points, up 0.39%; the CSI 500 stock index futures contract IC2512 opened slightly higher, moved strongly upwards, and closed at 7390.0 points, up 2.12%; the CSI 1000 stock index futures contract IM2512 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, and closed at 7446.4 points, up 1.42%. The A - share market performed well on this day, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points [13][14][15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 opened slightly lower, rose then fell back, and closed at 108.570 yuan, up 0.13%; the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 opened slightly lower, rebounded then fell back, and closed at 115.83 yuan, down 0.27% [37][41]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2512 opened slightly lower, moved upwards in a volatile manner, and closed at 910.88 yuan/gram, down 0.55%; the silver futures contract AG2512 opened slightly lower, moved strongly upwards, and closed at 11338 yuan/kg, up 1.91% [43][50]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the copper futures contract CU2512 opened slightly higher, rose then fell back, moved strongly upwards, and closed at 88710 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the aluminum futures contract AL2512 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 21295 yuan/ton, up 0.35%; the alumina futures contract AO2601 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 2879 yuan/ton, up 1.41% [54][59][64]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 82900 yuan/ton, up 0.80%; the rebar futures contract RB2601 opened slightly higher, rose then fell back, and closed at 3133 yuan/ton, up 1.00%; the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2601 opened flat, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 3345 yuan/ton, up 1.21%; the iron ore futures contract I2601 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1.96%; the coking coal futures contract JM2601 opened flat, rose then fell back, moved sharply upwards, and closed at 1302.0 yuan/ton, up 3.50%; the glass futures contract FG601 opened flat, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 1127 yuan/ton, up 1.62%; the soda ash futures contract SA601 opened slightly lower, first declined then rose, and closed at 1259 yuan/ton, up 1.12%; the crude oil futures contract SC2512 opened slightly lower, first declined then rose, rebounded then fell back, and closed at 462.6 yuan/barrel, down 0.81%; the PTA futures contract TA601 opened slightly lower, first declined then rose, and closed at 4636 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; the PVC futures contract V2601 opened slightly lower, rose then fell back, and closed at 4775 yuan/ton, up 1.02%; the soybean meal futures contract M2601 opened flat, rebounded then fell back, and closed at 2969 yuan/ton, up 0.10%; the natural rubber futures contract RU2601 opened slightly lower, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 15625 yuan/ton, up 1.56% [68][72][77][79][85][91][95][99][104][105][108][110].

2025 年 10 月 30 日 硅铁：反内卷情绪推动，偏强震荡 锰硅：反内卷情绪推动，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2601 | 5594 | 3 0 | 134,717 | 162,689 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5682 | 4 0 | 1,809 | 7,127 | | | 锰硅2601 | 5852 | 6 2 | 205,751 | 341,929 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5890 | 6 2 | 10,968 | 34,735 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is rated as "1", indicating a "moderately strong" outlook, with a range of [-2, 2] where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [3]. 2) Core View of the Report - Lithium carbonate's basis is stable and the market is trending moderately strong [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts are 81,740 and 82,900 respectively. The trading volume of the 2511 contract decreased by 21,579, while the 2601 contract decreased by 69,886. The open interest of the 2511 contract decreased by 10,759, and the 2601 contract increased by 18,079 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume is 27,525 hands, an increase of 190 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract is -2,590, and between spot and 2601 contract is -3,750. The basis between 2511 and 2601 contracts is -1,160 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 928, an increase of 3. The price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,130, an increase of 65 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 79,150, an increase of 650. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 76,950, an increase of 650 [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of various downstream products such as ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate also showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 103,000, an increase of 2,500 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 79,207 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 654 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 7.915 million yuan/ton, a daily increase of 650 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 7.695 million yuan/ton, a daily increase of 650 yuan/ton [2]. - **Liontown Resources**: In Q3 2025, Kathleen Valley produced 87,200 tons of lithium concentrate, a 1.5% increase. It sold 77,500 tons, a 20.4% decrease. The recovery rate reached 70%. The FOB operating cost was 715 dollars/ton, a 21.7% increase. The average CIF price of SC6 was 700 dollars/ton. The open - pit mine will be mined out next quarter, and underground mining volume will increase by 105%. Future production, recovery rate, and operating efficiency are expected to improve, and the annual FOB operating cost will decline [3].

2025 年 10 月 30 日 品 研 究 | 甲醇：短期震荡博弈 | | --- | 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 （01合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,257 | 2,241 | 1 6 - 7 -99406 -23877 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,245 | 2,252 | | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 585,629 | 685,035 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 1,197,415 | 1,221,292 | | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 12,122 | 13,872 | -1750 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | ...

2025 年 10 月 30 日 短纤：短期反弹，多 PF 空 PR 瓶片：短期反弹，多 PF 空 PR 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2511 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 -14 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 -22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 6214 | 6228 | | PF11-12 | -36 | -14 | | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6250 | 6242 | 8 | PF12-01 | -28 | ୧4 | -92 | | | 短纤2601 | 6278 | 6178 | 100 | PF主力基差 | 110 | d3 | 17 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 147725 | 151701 | -3976 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 360 | 6. 335 | 25 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Short - term, synthetic rubber (especially cis - butadiene rubber) is expected to form a wide - range volatile pattern of capital games during the day, and the medium - term price center will gradually decline. The raw material end has weakened significantly, leading to the gradual repair of production profits. The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber has decreased, while the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has increased. The macro events in the short - term have a greater impact on the equity market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: For the 12 - contract of cis - butadiene rubber, the daily closing price was 10,795 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 195,650 lots, an increase of 83,214 lots; the open interest was 52,216 lots, an increase of 3,565 lots; the trading volume was 1041.436 million yuan, an increase of 430.208 million yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract was 105 yuan, down 90 yuan; the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 (private) was 45 yuan, down 15 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene rubber (private) decreased by 150 yuan; the market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 150 yuan and 200 yuan respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 300 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.8996%, an increase of 1.74%. The theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber was 10,637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 309 yuan; the profit was 363 yuan/ton, an increase of 309 yuan [1]. [Industry News] - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of October 29, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 30,900 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.90%. Some production enterprises stopped or planned to stop production, and the production profit was gradually repaired, driving some private enterprises to sell at low prices. The inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises decreased significantly [2]. - **Butadiene Inventory**: As of October 29, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 32,000 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared with the previous period. There were imported ships arriving at the port during the cycle, and the inventory of some trading volumes increased slightly, resulting in a significant increase in the sample port inventory. Merchants expect the import volume in November to be abundant [2][3].

2025 年 10 月 30 日 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 9,170 | 215 | 685 | -135 | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 289,712 | 28,625 | 184,190 | -220,594 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 220,662 | 8,992 | 124,108 | -90,435 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 54,990 | 635 | 4,680 | - | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 307,284 | 99,084 | 206,792 | - | | | | PS2601持仓量（手） | 118,430 | 3,498 | 69,414 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -385 | -10 | -370 | -385 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC will experience a short - term rebound, but will face pressure again when the main contract encounters delivery issues [1] - The high - production and high - inventory structure of the PVC market is difficult to change, and export growth may slow down due to policy disturbances [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Fundamental Data - The 01 - contract futures price is 4775, the East China spot price is 4620, the basis is - 155, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 286 [1] Spot Market Situation - The domestic PVC spot market is running in a stalemate. The morning inquiry atmosphere is light, and the spot quotation is mainly stable. The afternoon commodity market drive causes a small increase in the PVC market, but the spot transaction center has limited fluctuations. In the East China region, the cash - on - delivery warehouse pickup price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC is 4580 - 4700 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC price is stuck at 4700 - 4900 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - Coal is short - term strong, and the macro anti - involution sentiment leads to a short - term rebound of PVC. However, from the PVC fundamentals, the "chlorine compensation with alkali" in the profit end results in insufficient driving force for PVC production cuts. After the maintenance devices resume production, the supply side will maintain high - level operation in winter [1] - The demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness, inventory transfer to downstream is not smooth, and social inventory is higher year - on - year. In addition, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and there will be great pressure on long - position holders to take delivery in the future [1] Trend Intensity - The PVC trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]