2025 年 10 月 29 日 生猪：现货情绪回落，等待印证 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | 同 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12630 | 150 | | 价 格 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 12300 | 400 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12360 | 300 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | | 12095 | 30 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | | 12160 | -170 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision [2][4]. - Zinc prices will continue to oscillate [2][7]. - Overseas inventory reduction supports lead prices [2][10]. - Aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate, alumina will trade sideways in the short - term, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][12]. - Nickel prices will experience narrow - range fluctuations due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downside potential but lacks upward drivers [2][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 86,980 with a daily decline of 1.57%, and the night - session closing price was 87,910 with a 1.07% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 808 to 396,365, and the open interest decreased by 18,012 to 595,121. The LME copper 3M electronic trading volume decreased by 2,744 to 21,767, and the open interest increased by 2,194 to 323,000. The Shanghai copper inventory increased by 454 to 35,846, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 1,400 to 134,575 [4]. - **News**: The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. Antofagasta's Q3 2025 copper production was 161,800 tons, a 1% quarter - on - quarter increase, and it expects annual production to be at the lower end of the 660,000 - 700,000 - ton range. Indonesia may allow Amman Mineral international to export copper concentrates. Trump overturned a pollution - prevention regulation on copper smelter emissions. Anglo American's Q3 copper production was 184,000 tons, up from 181,000 tons in the same period last year, but the cumulative production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% year - on - year to 526,000 tons [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 1 [6]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,310, a 0.25% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic closing price was 3,058.5, a 1.29% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 8,676 to 128,753, and the LME zinc trading volume decreased by 721 to 10,796. The Shanghai zinc inventory increased by 2,547 to 68,271 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 to 35,250 tons [7]. - **News**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes measures for technological breakthroughs and economic development [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [9]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,355, a 0.94% decline, and the LME lead 3M electronic closing price was 2,023.5, a 0.35% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 24,547 to 57,175, and the LME lead trading volume increased by 716 to 5,707. The LME lead inventory decreased by 2,700 to 229,675 tons [10]. - **News**: The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" was proposed [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [10]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,140, a 220 - point decline. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,894, a 16 - point increase. The Shanghai alumina main contract closing price was 2,817, a 12 - point decline. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,575, a 140 - point decline [12]. - **News**: The "ADP National Employment Report" will launch weekly preliminary estimates, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" mentions "finance" 17 times [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [14]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,560, a 1,840 - point decline, and the stainless - steel main contract closing price was 12,750, a 65 - point decline. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 26,763 to 156,296, and the stainless - steel main contract trading volume decreased by 80,991 to 131,733 [15]. - **News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel - mining area of PT WedaBav Nickel, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended a non - official subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on "all key software" [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [17].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View - Zinc is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,310 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day, while the closing price of the LME 3M electronic zinc contract was 3,058.5 dollars/ton, up 1.29% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 128,753 lots, an increase of 8,676 lots, and the trading volume of LME zinc was 10,796 lots, a decrease of 721 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 120,693 lots, a decrease of 491 lots, and the open interest of LME zinc was 222,508 lots, an increase of 264 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -45 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME CASH - 3M premium was 212.89 dollars/ton, up 25.52 dollars [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 68,271 tons, an increase of 2,547 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 35,250 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons [1]. 2. News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to take extraordinary measures to achieve decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas, implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action, and boost consumption. It also plans to layout future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, etc. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon has obvious bottom support with the depletion of warehouse receipts, while the market sentiment of polysilicon has cooled down, and there is a risk of a decline [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For industrial silicon, the Si2601 closing price was 8,965 yuan/ton, with a change of 45 yuan compared to T - 1, 400 yuan compared to T - 5, and 0 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 198,198 lots, and the open interest was 201,518 lots [2]. - For polysilicon, the PS2601 closing price was 54,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,195 yuan compared to T - 1 and 4,160 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varied depending on different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium or discount against East China Si5530 was +395 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon's spot premium or discount against N - type re - investment was - 1,855 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 9,950 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 52,980 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.4 Profit - The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,314.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,253 yuan/ton [2]. - The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.5 yuan/kg [2]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.9 million tons, enterprise inventory was 16.8 million tons, and the industry inventory was 72.7 million tons. The futures warehouse receipt inventory was 24.0 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 25.8 million tons [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 23, the National Energy Administration released data on the country's electricity consumption in September. The total electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. From January to September, the cumulative total electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 1, and that of polysilicon was - 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

国 泰 君 安 期 货 短纤：需求正反馈，短期反弹 瓶片：短期反弹 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 2025 年 10 月 29 日 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2511 | 昨日 6214 | 前日 6228 | 变化 -14 | PF11-12 | 昨日 -36 | 前日 -14 | 变化 -22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6250 | 6242 | 8 | PF12-01 | -28 | 64 | -92 | | | 短纤2601 | 6278 | 6178 | 100 | PF主 ...

2025 年 10 月 29 日 铅：海外库存持续减少，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17355 | -0.94% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2023.5 | 0.35% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 57175 | -24547 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5707 | 716 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 77635 | -6760 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 153975 | -183 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 30 | -10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -33.8 | 2.84 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | 20 | 15 | 进口升 ...

2025 年 10 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 螺纹钢：宏观情绪推涨，钢价走势偏强震荡 热轧卷板：宏观情绪推涨，钢价走势偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2601 | 3,091 | 15 | 0.49 | | 期 货 | HC2601 | 3,305 | 28 | 0.85 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2601 | 1,333,406 | 1,930,357 | -22,644 | | | HC2601 | 504,315 | 1,473,797 | -8,933 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 杭州 | 3220 ...

2025 年 10 月 29 日 尿素：现货成交转弱，压力缓步增加 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,635 | 1,640 | - 5 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,635 | 1,641 | - 6 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 102,573 | 105,069 | -2496 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 273,001 | 281,954 | -8953 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,970 | 5,288 | -2318 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 335,420 | 344,888 | -9468 | | | 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -25 | -30 | 5 | | | 基 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -135 | -140 | 5 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, hitting a new low for the year. The accelerated decline in recent market conditions has made downstream buyers more cautious, and the limited volume of transactions at low - price points has limited support for the overall market. Due to the decline in downstream futures and a bearish outlook for the later market, buying intentions are low [2]. - The price of high - cis butadiene rubber has decreased, with market offers falling further. Traders' offer sentiment is poor, and there is still pressure on transaction follow - up. Terminal buyers are cautious, and the focus of actual transactions is at the lower end of the range [3]. - In the short term, the weak operation of butadiene has driven down the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. Butadiene rubber is gradually entering a pattern of high production, high inventory, and high profit, and is expected to have a wide - range volatile pattern of capital games in the short term, with the medium - term price center gradually moving downward [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (December contract) decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 10,805 yuan/ton. Trading volume decreased by 19,544 lots to 112,436 lots, open interest decreased by 967 lots to 48,651 lots, and turnover decreased by 117,842 ten - thousand yuan to 611,228 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong butadiene - futures main contract) increased by 140 to 195, and the monthly spread (BR11 - BR12, private enterprise) remained unchanged at 60. The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 100 yuan/ton each. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 200 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 69.0377%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber decreased by 206 yuan/ton to 10,946 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 97 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, with prices in Shandong's Luzhong area around 7900 - 8000 yuan/ton and in East China's ex - tank self - pick - up around 7650 - 7750 yuan/ton [2]. - Taking the Daqing BR9000 in Shandong as a benchmark, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber closed at 10,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, exceeding the morning's expectations. The market offer has declined further, and the reference price of private butadiene rubber in the northern region is 10,600 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is - 1, indicating a bearish view [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil origin is experiencing slow inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to the lower support level. The soybean oil price rebounds with the rise of US soybeans, and the oil - meal ratio declines [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of palm oil主力 was 8,958 yuan/ton (down 1.56% during the day session and 8,824 yuan/ton, down 1.50% during the night session). The closing price of soybean oil主力 was 8,182 yuan/ton (down 0.63% during the day session and 8,080 yuan/ton, down 1.25% during the night session). The closing price of rapeseed oil主力 was 9,730 yuan/ton (down 0.18% during the day session and 9,659 yuan/ton, down 0.73% during the night session). The Malaysian palm oil主力 was 4,315 ringgit/ton (down 1.30% during the day session and 4,290 ringgit/ton, down 0.63% during the night session). The CBOT soybean oil主力 was 50.16 cents/pound (down 1.20%) [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil主力 was 531,693 lots (an increase of 69,272 lots), and the open interest was 368,090 lots (an increase of 11,600 lots). The trading volume of soybean oil主力 was 257,069 lots (a decrease of 14,197 lots), and the open interest was 489,097 lots (an increase of 11,003 lots). The trading volume of rapeseed oil主力 was 136,617 lots (a decrease of 16,166 lots), and the open interest was 240,247 lots (a decrease of 3,196 lots) [2]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,900 yuan/ton (a decrease of 130 yuan/ton), the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton), and the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,100 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton). The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,085 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 58 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 368 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 370 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spread**: The futures price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil主力 was 772 yuan/ton, the futures price spread between soybean oil and palm oil主力 was - 776 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 price spread of palm oil was - 22 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 price spread of soybean oil was 180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 price spread of rapeseed oil was 387 yuan/ton [2]. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Indonesia**: GAPKI expects Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 to increase by 10% to about 5,600 - 5,700 million tons (previously estimated at 5,363 million tons), and exports to be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons (higher than 2,900 million tons in 2024). In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 254 million tons (down 1% from the previous month), with exports of 347 million tons (down 1.8% month - on - month) and production of 506 million tons [3][4]. - **US Crop Harvest**: As of Sunday, the US soybean harvest was expected to be 84% complete, and the corn harvest 72% complete. Analysts' prediction ranges were 80% - 88% for soybeans and 67% - 80% for corn. Last year, the soybean harvest was 89% and the corn harvest was 81% at the same time [4]. - **Brazil's Soybean and Soybean Meal Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to reach 700 million tons (previously estimated at 734 million tons), and soybean meal exports are expected to reach 208 million tons (previously 209 million tons) [5]. - **Soybean Pressing Profit in Brazil**: In the week of October 20 - 24 in Mato Grosso, Brazil, the soybean pressing profit was 467.42 reais/ton (previously 457.72 reais/ton), with the soybean meal price at 1,512.91 reais/ton and the soybean oil price at 6,658.72 reais/ton [5]. - **EU's Agricultural Product Imports**: As of October 26, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 89 million tons (compared to 113 million tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 362 million tons (compared to 428 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 568 million tons (compared to 589 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 120 million tons (compared to 189 million tons last year) [5]. - **Nepal's Exports to India**: In the first quarter of the 2025 - 26 fiscal year, Nepal's exports to India soared by nearly 138% due to a surge in soybean oil exports. Processed edible oil (mainly soybean oil) accounted for nearly 52% of Nepal's exports to India, with exports of 306.9 billion Nepalese rupees [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1. The range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [7].