BZ&EB周报：短期EB高位震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：短期EB高位震荡 | | • | 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。部分山 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 东地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 | | | • | 纯苯进口：虽然海外库存压力仍然偏大，但是整体进口量下调。26年1-3月纯苯单月进口量平均约43万吨左右。美韩关税仍在，但是后续美亚芳烃物流在 | | | | 春节后可能继续发生，预估影响每个月3-4万吨纯苯。 | | | • | 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 | | | • | 己内酰胺：CPL负 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 供应 02 炼厂开工 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 原油：常减压：产能利用率：中国炼厂（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 2019 2020 2025 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 原油：常减压：独立炼厂：产能利用率：中国 （周） 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 65 70 75 80 85 90 原油：主营炼厂：产能利用率：中国（周） 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 ...

2026年2月1日 青绪主导边 际. 基本 月检修减产频出。镍铁预期托底 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮镍与不锈钢的核心博弈在于印尼镍政策方面,基于事件的角度: 1) 配额事件:印尼能矿部表示配额将根据行业需求进行调整,目标或削减至 2.5-2.6 亿吨镍矿配额。 点评:2024-2025 年的配额量确实超过实际冶炼刚需量,2026 年对需求的重新梳理和配额的重新审视仍 在进行中,目前仍在等待具体政策落地前的真空期,预计一季度或将明确具体政策。如果放眼到长周期, 印尼防止过剩和挺价的心态是明确的,前期低价矿吸引冶炼的红利周期结束,在冶炼端产能过剩后,政策 面或出现周期性的特向。如果 1-12 月目标配额落地,那么矿端紧缺可能倒逼冶炼瑞威产,从而将过剩预 期扭转为紧缺,并对存量的高库存形成冲击,这也是二级市场对上方仍有想象的核心锚点。不过,从印尼 下游政策的角度来看,若矿端采取激进的"一刀切"方式,易于激化与下游外资冶炼企业的矛盾,严业普 遍认为印尼难有绝对的政策,更关注动态的利益。因此,二级市场和产业双方在印尼政策预期上形成分歧, 两种资金在盘面形成 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, hold non - ferrous metals, oil and gas, and rare earths until the US economy faces a recession crisis. The long - end interest rate in the US is likely to rise, and the US economy may overheat. The macro market's political volatility will decline, and the trading will focus on economic and policy factors. Gold is expected to reach around $6,000 per ounce, and silver's high is expected to be around $120 per ounce. Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to Fed rate cuts and supply - demand gaps. The electrolytic aluminum market may have an upward trend, with a global supply shortage [10][35][98]. Summary by Directory Asset Allocation: Macroeconomic Contradictions and Allocation Strategies - The US Treasury drives currency and inflation. The continuous growth of US Treasury debt is backed by GDP. Since 2000, the US government's expenditure/GDP ratio has been rising, and the deficit rate is high. If the stock market has a crisis, it may bring opportunities for commodities. The sensitivity of non - ferrous metals to interest rates has increased since 2020, and the game between the Fed and global commodity inflation has intensified [4][13]. - In 2026, hold non - ferrous metals, oil and gas, and rare earths. The US economy may overheat, and the long - end interest rate is likely to rise. The macro market's political volatility will decline, and trading will focus on economic and policy factors [10][35]. Precious Metals: Where Are Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium Headed? - Gold is at a new starting point. Due to geopolitical risks and dovish Fed expectations, it is recommended to increase gold allocation, focus on unilateral long positions and call option strategies. For silver, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and consider long positions in the gold - silver ratio. In 2026, gold is expected to reach around $6,000 per ounce, and silver is expected to have a high of around $120 per ounce [29][35]. - Platinum and palladium are driven by the precious metals sector. They have strong follow - up elasticity but are also affected by the callback of gold and silver. The current upward trend of platinum is relatively healthy, and there is a possibility of a new high. Palladium may have supplementary upward momentum [36]. Copper: How to Choose the Trading Mode under the Background of Weak Reality and Strong Expectations? - In terms of trading, copper price volatility has declined, and the positions of SHFE and LME copper are at historical highs. The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the spot import loss has narrowed. Globally, the total copper inventory is at a historical high, and the LC spread has narrowed [37][44][48]. - The global copper mine supply in 2025 was lower than expected, and the increase in 2026 is limited. The supply disturbance has increased, mainly due to factors such as reduced ore grades, strikes, and geopolitics. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the refined copper output is expected to increase by 68.75 million tons in 2026 [62][66][69]. - In terms of consumption, high - quality consumption such as AI computing centers and new energy consumption contribute significantly to copper consumption. The "14th Five - Year Plan" in China supports power grid investment, which will drive copper consumption. Traditional industries also show an increase in copper consumption, but there are differences among countries [75][80][92]. - The global refined copper supply will shift from surplus in 2025 to a shortage in 2026. It is expected that the global copper supply will have a shortage of 197,000 tons in 2026, and the Chinese market will have a shortage of 191,500 tons. Copper prices are expected to remain firm in 2026 [95][96][98]. Electrolytic Aluminum: How to Grasp the Contradictions and Rhythms after the Abnormal Breakthrough? - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum market was in a state of shock convergence. In the fourth quarter, the stock - futures linkage opened up the upward elasticity. In 2026, it is expected that the market will continue the upward - looking trend, with a global supply shortage of 420,000 - 760,000 tons. The short - term rhythm needs to pay attention to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, and the risks include macro - recession and over - production in Indonesia [100][101][104]. - Currently, the Shanghai aluminum is in a high - level shock, with a neutral - strong position. The short - term micro - demand is weak, but the macro - risk preference is optimistic, and it has marginal upward momentum [110]. Over - the - Counter Options: How to Use Option Hedging Tools under High Volatility and High Prices? - For long positions, when the price is high, consider replacing with in - the - money call options to retain the upside potential and control the maximum drawdown. You can also use spread options to optimize costs with a capped upside [118][122]. - For selling hedging of inventory, consider buying put collar options to optimize the hedging cost, limit inventory price fluctuations between $100,000 - $120,000, and receive an option premium of $150 per ton [126].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期回调 | | • | 本周(20260122-0128)，中国尿素生产企业产量：145.49万吨，较上期涨3.11万吨，环比涨2.18%。周期内新增2家企业装置停车，6家停车装置恢 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 复生产，同时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量明显增加。下周，中国尿素周产量预计147万吨附近，较本期小幅增加。下个周期暂无企业装 置计划停车，1-3家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量增幅有限。（隆众资讯） | | 需求 | • | 内需方面，伴随尿素现货持续上涨，中游贸易商追高情绪有所转弱，春节前预计中游及复合肥工厂刚需采购为主，不追高，逢低买。 | | | • | 出口方面，根据了解，出口对尿素市场 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 工业硅：上游减产发酵，震荡偏强 2026 年 02 月 01 日 多晶硅：关注现货实际成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面震荡偏强，部分资金交易上游工厂减产的预期，周五盘面收于 8850 元/吨。现货市场价格持稳，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8700 元/吨（环比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 9050 元/吨 (环比+100)。 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面震荡偏强，现货价格持平；多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，现货报价或有松动 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存去库；多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端，上游或大幅减产。据咨询商统计，本周新疆地区开工减少，系新疆某工厂因部分因素大 面积停炉，整体周产环减。具体而言，西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000- 10500 元/吨(折盘面)，枯水期当地开工目前已降至极低位置。新疆地区部分工厂因原料问题亦有减产驱动， 将带来较明显的供给收缩。库存角度，SMM 统计本周社会库存累库 0.2 万吨，厂库库存累库 0.41 万吨，整 体行 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 1 日 棉花：维持震荡偏强走势 20260201 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 国内棉花期货维持偏强震荡的走势，主要受到整体商品市场情绪变化影响，周三受商品情绪乐观情绪 推动再次上冲至 15000 元/吨附近，但是之后随着商品情绪转弱而回落；从基本面来看，近期国内棉花市 场还是缺乏新的驱动。当前国内棉花供应仍充足，而下游的需求处于淡季，下游追高意愿不强，不过回调 的时候点价盘对郑棉期货构成一定支撑；另外，由于外盘近月合约很弱且人民币坚挺，内外棉价差过大令 市场对棉花和棉纱进口增加的担忧依然存在，也继续限制郑棉期价的上涨。关于 2026 年新疆棉花种植面 积下降的预期，阶段性来看也算是交易充分，我们还是倾向于到春节后结合需求情况再去交易未来三年的 目标价格补贴政策和新年度的产量或时间点上更好。维持郑棉期货震荡偏强的判断。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 截至 1 月 30 日当周，ICE 棉花期货波动加大，周一受技术性抛压影响 ICE 棉花跌破 63 美分/磅 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场持稳运行。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4725元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势延续稳定；70g 木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4459元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势由涨转稳。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，纸企出货价格基本稳定，部 分出版订单提货尚未结束，个别成交存在商谈空间；第二，周内华南地区个别产线停机，行业供给有所减量，但部分纸企库存压力仍存；第 三，临近春节，下游订单有限，备货热情一般，经销商多数稳价出货；第四，上游木浆价格走势偏弱，成本面对双胶纸支 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated significantly. Mid - week, aluminum led the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but prices fell in the second half of the week due to the decline of the US stock market and concerns about the overseas AI bubble. The short - term micro - demand for aluminum is still weak, and the dominant factors for non - ferrous metals are capital preference and overseas macro narratives [3]. - Alumina follows the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector, with its price trend converging in a volatile manner. The pattern of oversupply, inventory build - up, and cost collapse remains unchanged, and the mid - term strategy is to short on rallies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Mid - week, aluminum led the non - ferrous sector, with the absolute price breaking historical highs, likely due to stock - futures linkage and ETF market arbitrage. In the second half of the week, prices dropped with the decline of the US stock market and concerns about the overseas AI bubble. In the Friday night session, the decline was relatively moderate [3]. - **Micro - demand**: As of January 29, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 32,000 tons to 800,000 tons compared with last week. As of January 30, the spot discount in East China and South China widened significantly. The weekly output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils continued to decline, and the cumulative year - to - date output in 2026 decreased by 0.15%. The operating rate of aluminum profiles also declined, and the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to fall to a record low [3]. 3.2 Alumina - **Price and Inventory**: Alumina prices fluctuated and converged. On Friday night, prices rose, possibly due to position - closing in other sectors and short - covering in the AO variety. As of January 30, the spot price showed a mild decline, and the inventory continued to build up. The ALD full - scale social inventory reached 5.114 million tons on January 29, an increase of 55,000 tons from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Cost**: The weekly output of alumina decreased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north and south entered the maintenance period this week, and some enterprises planned to cut production in February to reduce supply pressure. Low - cost imported ore will arrive at ports in mid - to - late February, and some enterprises plan to adjust the ore application ratio to control costs [4]. 3.3 Trading - **Price Difference**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina weakened this week. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 150 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from - 153 yuan/ton to - 207 yuan/ton [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased significantly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the trading volume increased slightly [14]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of the main Shanghai aluminum contract declined, and that of alumina decreased slightly and was at a historically low level [20]. 3.4 Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of January 30, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 309,300 tons compared with last week. As of December, the port inventory and port inventory days of Chinese bauxite showed an increase. The bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises also increased in December. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia decreased slightly, while the sea - floating inventory increased slightly. The shipping volume from different ports showed a differentiated trend, and the arrival volume increased [25][30][31]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory of alumina continued to build up, with an increase of 78,000 tons compared with last week. The factory inventory decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, port inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of January 29, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 32,000 tons to 800,000 tons, showing a build - up this week [54]. - **Processed Products**: The spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods increased this week. As of December, the finished - product and raw - material inventory ratios of SMM aluminum profiles increased slightly, while the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly [58][61]. 3.5 Production - **Bauxite**: In December, the domestic bauxite supply increased slightly. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output increased slightly. Imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. The production of bauxite in different provinces showed a differentiated trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [66][67]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina remained stable. As of January 30, the national operating capacity of alumina was 94.1 million tons, a decrease of 400,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from the previous week. The supply - side situation remained loose [72]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. As of January 29, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 858,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous week. The proportion of molten aluminum decreased seasonally [78]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods increased by 2,800 tons this week, the output of aluminum rods decreased by 15,800 tons, and the output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased by 1,400 tons. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 1.5%, and the operating rates of different sectors such as aluminum plates, strips, and foils also declined [84][85]. 3.6 Profit - **Alumina**: In December, the profit of alumina continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union caliber was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while that in Guangxi was relatively better [92]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [107]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 50 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [108]. 3.7 Consumption - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed. In December 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products decreased slightly, by 30,000 tons compared with the previous month. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed a differentiated trend [117][119][121]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing was at a low level, and the monthly output of automobiles decreased compared with the previous month [122].

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：高位波动率加大，下方成本支撑，月差反套 | | 供应持续宽松。PX中化泉州80万吨装置重启，国产装置开工回升至89.2%。当前PX加工利润丰厚，开工负荷提升。 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 海外装置方面，韩国GS55万吨装置重启、台塑装置负荷提升，科威特82万吨装置检修。亚洲装置开工率81.6%（+1%）。 | | 需求 | PTA加工费上升至400元/吨，开工无明显变化维持76.6%。独山能源二期250万吨预计1月底检修。125万吨珠海英力士近期停车。 | | 观点 | 节前高位波动加大。PX下方空间有限，月差反套。当前聚酯链条季节性走弱，PX进入累库格局成本端原油价格持续上涨，PX环节利润或被 动压缩，但终端出口订单略强于预期。 | | 估值 | PXN325美金/吨（-23 ...