商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 24 日 黄金：假期间震荡上行 白银：关注节后高开 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,126.12 | -0.38% | 1100.96 | -2.42% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,122.92 | -0.14% | 1096.99 | -2.49% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4941.40 | -3.26% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 4921.11 | -3.22% | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 20626 | -1.57% | 19188.00 | -8.35% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 19670 | -1.19% | 18201 | -8.62% | | | Comex白银2602 | 75.010 | -10.79% | - | ...

2026年02月24日 国大豆产能提升关键点:太面积单产提 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读: 中央一号文件连续两年提出"大面积单产提升",这对于提升我国大豆产能尤其重要。2026年中央一 号文件提出"推进粮油作物大面积提单产",这是继2025年中央一号文件首次提出"深入推进粮油作物大 面积单产提升行动"之后,2026年中央一号文件再次提出该政策。大面积单产提升,对于提升我国大豆 产能尤其重要。因为我国耕地资源有限,大豆种植面积提升空间受限，所以提升单产就更加重要,我们需 要持续推进大豆大面积单产提升行动。 我国大豆单产持续提升,但对照全球大豆及其他主要粮油作物单产水平、差距仍较大。2025年我国 大豆单产 271.8斤/亩,同比增幅约 1.9%,创下历史新高。2016年～2025年我国大豆单产复合年均增长 率约1.5%. 大豆单产水平持续提升。分产区看,新疆单产最高、南方较高、北方偏低,主产区黑龙江和 内蒙古单产均偏低。对照全球大豆单产水平(全球 396斤/亩、巴西 485 斤/亩、美国 475 斤/亩等)、其 他主要粮油作物（玉米、小麦、油菜籽、葵 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 14, all the current contracts of the four major stock index futures declined. IF dropped 1.61%, IH dropped 1.84%, IC dropped 1.92%, and IM dropped 1.7% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 51,556 lots, IH by 28,092 lots, IC by 27,924 lots, and IM by 30,724 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 10,693 lots, IH by 9,279 lots, IC by 612 lots; while IM's total positions decreased by 4,355 lots [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1期指期现数据跟踪 - **Stock Index Futures Data** - **CSI 300**: The closing price was 4,660.4, down 1.25%, with a turnover of 452.88 billion [1] - **IF Contracts**: All contracts declined, with IF2602 down 1.61%, IF2603 down 1.92%, IF2606 down 2.05%, and IF2609 down 2.04%. The trading volume and positions of most contracts increased, except for the positions of IF2602 which decreased by 337 [1] - **SSE 50**: The closing price was 3,034.4, down 1.47%, with a turnover of 125.97 billion [1] - **IH Contracts**: All contracts declined, with IH2602 down 1.84%, IH2603 down 2.06%, IH2606 down 2.09%, and IH2609 down 2.18%. The trading volume of all contracts increased, while the positions of IH2602 decreased by 479 [1] - **CSI 500**: The closing price was 8,299.6, down 1.47%, with a turnover of 406.32 billion [1] - **IC Contracts**: All contracts declined, with IC2602 down 1.92%, IC2603 down 2.02%, IC2606 down 2.19%, and IC2609 down 2.24%. The trading volume of most contracts increased, while the positions of IC2602 decreased by 4,591 [1] - **CSI 1000**: The closing price was 8,204.8, down 1.32%, with a turnover of 438.92 billion [1] - **IM Contracts**: All contracts declined, with IM2602 down 1.70%, IM2603 down 1.75%, IM2606 down 1.91%, and IM2609 down 1.88%. The trading volume of all contracts increased, while the positions of IM2602 decreased by 6,643 [1] 3.2期指前20大会员持仓增减 - **IF Contracts**: The long - order increase of IF2601 was 820, IF2602 was 5,634, IF2603 was 5,379, and IF2606 was 1,351. The short - order increase of IF2601 was 451, IF2602 was 946, IF2603 was 5,339, and IF2606 was 1,132 [5] - **IH Contracts**: The long - order increase of IH2601 was 45, IH2602 was 6,647, IH2603 was 1,500, and IH2606 was 1,157. The short - order increase of IH2601 was - 70, IH2602 was 4,992, IH2603 was 1,655, and IH2606 was 1,102 [5] - **IC Contracts**: The long - order increase of IC2601 was - 3,585, IC2602 was 1,451, IC2603 was 5,837, and IC2606 was 2,300. The short - order increase of IC2601 was - 3,616, IC2602 was - 1,876, IC2603 was 4,639, and IC2606 was 2,589 [5] - **IM Contracts**: The long - order increase of IM2601 was - 5,206, IM2602 was 1,708, IM2603 was 2,378. The short - order increase of IM2601 was - 4,703, IM2602 was - 2,297, IM2603 was 1,440. The data for IM2606 was not announced [5] 3.3趋势强度 - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3.4重要驱动 - **Credit and Monetary Data**: In January, the increment of social financing scale was 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.1% at the end of the month. At the end of January, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year [7] - **Housing Price Data**: The month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices in first, second, and third - tier cities narrowed comprehensively in January, with a narrowing of 0.4, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month. The second - hand housing prices in Yangzhou and Zhanjiang increased by 0.4% and 0.3% month - on - month respectively. Year - on - year, the prices of new and second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline, and the decline further widened [7] - **Regulatory Policies**: The "Anti - monopoly Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms" was released, specifying 4 types of monopoly risks such as monopoly agreements, abuse of market dominance, concentration of undertakings, and abuse of administrative power to exclude and restrict competition, and listing risk examples such as "choose one of two" and "the lowest price across the network". The CSRC seriously investigated and dealt with the illegal financing and information disclosure violations of Tianfeng Securities for Dangdai Group. The Hubei Securities Regulatory Bureau plans to impose a maximum fine of 25 million yuan on Tianfeng Securities and Dangdai Group, and a total fine of 34.8 million yuan on 9 responsible personnel. The actual controller of Dangdai Group, the former chairman of Tianfeng Securities, and the former vice - president and chief financial officer were subject to a lifetime ban from the securities market [7] 3.5 Other Market Information - **US Tariff Policy**: US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% ad valorem import tariff on goods imported into the US for 150 days starting from February 24, and later raised the tariff to 15%. Importers and retailers may face a long - term struggle to recover up to 170 billion US dollars in tariffs paid to the US government [8][9] - **Stock Market Performance in China**: On the last trading day of the Year of the Snake, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.26% to 4,082.07 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.57%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.72% to 26,567.12 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.9%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.55% [9][10]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-24 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-24 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美国海关将从 2 月 24 日起停止征收裁定违法的关税 观点分享： 据央视新闻，美国海关与边境保护局 22 日通过其货物系统消息服务表示，依据《国际 紧急经济权力法》征收的关税将不再生效，并且对于从美国东部时间 2 月 24 日起进入消费 市场或从仓库提取用于消费的货物，将不再征收这项关税。该消息还指出，暂停征收此项关 税并不影响特朗普政府征收的任何其他关税。美东时间 23 日周一，美国参议院民主党领袖 舒默宣布，民主党人将阻止任何延长特朗普依据《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条所实施关税措 施的努力。此举将使特朗普第二个总统任期构建的关税体系面临崩溃风险，因为依据 122 条 款实施的关税将于今夏到期终止。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 期指 | ★★★★ | 期指：马年仍有望开门红。假期间外盘表现平稳，略有上涨，隔夜美股因 AI 忧虑及关税不确 定而调整。后期展望来看，首先，假期间未出现明显超预期黑天 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | 2603 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 -0.44% | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | 0.00% | | 2603 | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2604 | 4,252 4,416 | -2.50% | 4,252 4,416 | 0.00% | PG | 2604 | 49,268 52,749 | 5,674 10,989 | 16,079 70,764 | -5,032 -3,676 | | 期货市场 | | 2605 | 4,335 | -2.52% | 4,335 | 0.00% | | 2605 | 4,190 | 1,883 | 8,429 | 647 | | | | 2603 | 6,172 | -1.69% | 6,172 | 0.00% | | 2603 | 339 | -141 | 1,443 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Uncertainty increases, price fluctuates [2][4] - Zinc: Rangeside fluctuation [2][7] - Lead: Weak supply and demand, rangeside fluctuation [2][10] - Tin: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs [2][12] - Aluminum: Post - holiday trend is relatively strong; Alumina: Rangeside fluctuation; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2][16] - Platinum: Boosted by the strengthening of silver [2][19] - Palladium: Tariff disturbances resurface, fluctuating with an upward bias [2][20] - Nickel: Speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel still exists, continuously focus on nickel ore contradictions; Stainless steel: Cost support center moves up, off - season inventory accumulation restricts elasticity [2][24] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 100,380, down 1.91%; the closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,901, up 0.35%. Trading volume and positions of Shanghai copper and LME copper changed, and inventory and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: AI concerns intensify, tariff war risks resurface, and US stocks decline. The US Customs will stop collecting illegal tariffs, and the European Parliament suspends the approval of the EU - US trade agreement. Harmony Gold's new Australian copper mine needs two - year transformation. China promotes central enterprises to invest in computing power. Codelco's copper production increased in December 2025, and there was a global refined copper supply surplus in December 2025 [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [6] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24,250, down 1.70%; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,378, up 0.91%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, premiums, and inventory [7]. - **News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urges the US to cancel unilateral tariff measures. Wall Street analyzes that tariffs may be lowered in the second half of the year [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,700, unchanged; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,966.5, up 0.69%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, premiums, and inventory [10]. - **News**: Similar to copper, AI concerns and tariff war risks affect the market, and the US stops collecting illegal tariffs [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [10] Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 365,400, down 7.05%; the closing price of the LME tin 3M electronic disk was 47,370, up 1.35%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and prices [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump mentions higher tariffs, the EU may suspend the US - EU trade agreement, the German Chancellor visits China, and the Fed official mentions AI - related job cuts [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [14] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: There were detailed data changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, premiums, and inventory of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [16]. - **Comprehensive News**: US Democrats oppose tariff extension and advocate for refund. Trump may attack Iran. [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 1; Alumina: 0; Cast aluminum alloy: 1 [18] Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: There were price changes in platinum and palladium futures and spot prices, as well as changes in trading volume, positions, and spreads [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump will visit China, the EU suspends the US - EU trade agreement, there are US economic data, and there are developments in US - Iran relations. Hong Kong aims to be an international gold trading center, etc. [23] - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum: 0; Palladium: 0 [22] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: There were data changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and related prices of nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as changes in the prices and spreads of products in the industrial chain [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia restricts new smelting licenses, revises the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and there are issues such as corporate violations, port monopolies, and mine restarts [24][25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: 0; Stainless steel: 0 [29]

期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 铝：节后风偏偏强 氧化铝：区间震荡 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【综合快讯】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 23195 | -415 | -120 | -1165 | 1900 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 23350 | । | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | -7 | | 7 | | | | | | 3091 | | -20 | | 221 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 237943 | 56635 | -145379 | -40 ...

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑，趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑，趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260224 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 6 | | LLDPE：节中地缘扰动，成本支撑偏强震荡 | 8 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，PDH检修仍高 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本支撑，震荡为主 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260224 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：价格中枢上移 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 20 | | 丙烯：基本面维持偏紧，关注节后补库动态 | 20 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：开盘或补涨，短期波动继续放大 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差持续反弹 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，区间思路对待 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 短纤：成本上抬基本面支撑，短期偏强 20260224 瓶片：成本上抬基本面支撑，短期偏强 20260224 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2604 | 6628 | 6622 | 6 | PF04-05 | 8 | 6 | 2 | | PF | 短纤2605 | 6620 | 6616 | ব | PF05-06 | 14 | -38 | 52 | | | 短纤2606 | 6606 | 6654 | -48 | PF主力基差 | -58 | -52 | -6 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 111838 | 153547 | -41709 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.570 | 6.570 | 0 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 153222 | 161516 | -8294 | 短纤产销 ...

集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，区间思路对待 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 2026 年 2 月 24 日 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 41 商 品 研 究 研 究 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 昨日成交 昨日持仓 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 前日成交/持仓 EC2604 1,269.8 3.38% 25,064 25,845 -5,176 0.97 1.17 EC2606 1,636.0 6.25% 5,648 13,960 573 0.40 0.32 ec2610 1,137.2 0.99% 1,729 7,931 -159 0.22 0.15 单位 SCFIS：欧洲航线 点 SCFIS：美西航线 点 单位 SCFI：欧洲航线 $/TEU SCFI：美西航线 $/FEU $/40'GP $/20'GP Maersk 38 1950 1225 MSC 45 2340 1400 OOCL 50 3030 178 ...