2026 年 2 月 25 日 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 豆一：现货补涨，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4633 -24（-0.52%） | 4659 | +27（+0.58%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2781 -19（-0.68%） | 2799 | +5 （+0.18%） | | | CBOT大豆05（美分/蒲） | +4.25（+0.37%） 1154.5 | | | | | CBOT豆粕05（美元/短吨） | 314.4 +2.2 （+0.70%） | | na | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 现货基差M2605+380； 3100～3160； 月M2605+50； 5-7月M2605+10/+50； | 3月M2605+ ...

期 货 研 究 | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | | | 23550 | 355 | 10 | -175 | 2305 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | | | 23550 | - | l | - | । | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3111 | 20 | -20 | 23 | 241 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | | | | 118216 | -119727 | -186424 | -444921 | -50376 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 电解铝 | | | | 127637 | -14862 | -70002 | -72590 | -148330 | | LME铝3M成交量 | | | | | 17958 | -17836 | -5991 | -14622 | -5334 | | LME注销仓单占比 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold showed an upward trend during the holiday; silver is expected to open higher after the holiday; copper prices rebounded with the rise of the US stock market; zinc is in a wide - range adjustment; the increase in domestic lead inventories limits price rebounds; tin is trending strongly with fluctuations; aluminum is expected to have a spring rally; alumina has an increase in maintenance; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; platinum is trending strongly with fluctuations; palladium generally follows a strong trend; there is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and the contradiction in nickel ore should be continuously monitored; for stainless steel, the cost support center has shifted up, but inventory accumulation in the off - season restricts its flexibility [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of main gold contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, Comex Gold 2602, and London Gold Spot all declined, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 increased by 28,688, and the position decreased by 5,958 [4]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Gold inventories in some markets decreased, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and London Gold increased by 759.30 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold is 1 [6]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of main silver contracts such as Shanghai Silver 2602, Silver T + D, Comex Silver 2602, and London Silver Spot all declined, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 increased by 4,927, and the position decreased by 13,313 [4]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Silver inventories in some markets decreased, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between Silver T + D and London Silver increased by 2,053 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silver is 1 [6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of main copper contracts such as Shanghai Copper and London Copper 3M increased, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 119,764, and the position increased by 10,253 [7]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Copper inventories in some markets increased, and spreads also changed. For example, the spot - to - futures near - month spread of copper increased by 250 [7]. - **Industry News**: Chile's state - owned Codelco copper company's copper production in December 2025 increased by 3.7% year - on - year; in December 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 98,000 tons; Uganda plans to connect a new railway to Tanzania's railway, which may open up a new export channel for copper [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc increased, while that of London Zinc 3M decreased. Trading volumes and positions showed different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 11,090, and the position increased by 4,439 [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Zinc inventories in some markets changed, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between ZN00 - ZN01 increased by 80 [10]. - **Industry News**: China's Ministry of Commerce will adjust counter - measures against US tariffs as appropriate; the US is considering imposing new tariffs on about six industries [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of main lead contracts such as Shanghai Lead and London Lead 3M decreased, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Lead increased by 8,374, and the position increased by 205 [15]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Lead inventories in some markets increased, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between PB00 - PB01 increased by 200 [15]. - **Industry News**: Trump's 10% "global tariff" took effect on Tuesday; the US is considering imposing new tariffs on about six industries; China's LPR has remained unchanged for nine consecutive months [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of main tin contracts such as Shanghai Tin and London Tin 3M increased, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Tin decreased by 103,755, and the position decreased by 7,222 [18]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Tin inventories in some markets changed, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between LME tin (spot/three - month) increased by 21 [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of main contracts of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 119,727, and the position decreased by 14,862 [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Inventories and spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy also changed. For example, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 211,000 tons [21]. - **Industry News**: The Fed warns that monetary policy may not be able to handle the unemployment wave caused by AI; Trump's 10% "global tariff" took effect on Tuesday, and the implementation schedule of the 15% tariff is yet to be determined [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 1, that of alumina is 0, and that of aluminum alloy is 1 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of main platinum and palladium contracts increased, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Platinum decreased by 2,011, and the position increased by 17 [25]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Platinum and palladium inventories in some markets remained unchanged, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between PT9995 and PT2606 decreased by 0.99 [25]. - **Industry News**: Takaichi Sanae expressed concerns about further interest rate hikes; the Trump administration will use AI to set reference prices for key minerals; the situation in Iran is tense; the Fed has different views on AI and interest rates [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of platinum and palladium is 0 [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of main nickel and stainless - steel contracts showed different trends, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Nickel decreased by 246,471, and the position decreased by 7,222 [29]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Nickel and stainless - steel inventories and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and the consecutive - first contract of nickel decreased by 450 [29]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses; the Indonesian government will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore; some nickel mines in Indonesia are facing potential fines; there are monopoly issues in the port of an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia has approved the 2026 mining work plan and budget; a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala; the export volume of Philippine nickel ore may double; there was a landslide in an Indonesian industrial park [29][30][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [34].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 25 日 铂：震荡偏强 钯：总体跟随偏强 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 551. 85 | | 1. 28% | | | 金交所铂金 | 545. 09 | | 3.82% | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2178. 60 | | 0. 60% | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2171.50 | | 1.08% | | | 纪金期货2606 | 438. 45 | | 1. 95% | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 430. 00 | | 8. 86% | | 价格 | | | | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.809.50 | | 4. 23% | | | 伦敦现货包金(前日) | 1.774.00 | | 0. 51% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | 广铂(千克) | ...

2026 年 02 月 25 日 棕榈油：减产兑现，短期难跌 豆油：美豆驱动有限，豆油区间反弹 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,824 | 1.45% | 8,818 | -0.07% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,140 | 1.07% | 8,186 | 0.57% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,200 | 1.79% | 9,190 | -0.11% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,054 | -0.73% | 4,053 | 0.00% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 60.51 | 1.05% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 268,923 | -28456 | 370,957 | -314 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 ...

2026 年 2 月 25 日 动力煤：上游报价坚挺，短期煤价表现偏强 【趋势强度】 动力煤趋势强度（基于北港动力煤现货价格）：1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 樊园园 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 fanyuanyuan@gtht.com 1. 【基本面跟踪】 动力煤基本面数据 | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 环比 | 同比去年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 山西大同 5500 | 元/吨 | 580.0 | 3.0 | 35.0 | | 产地价格 | 内蒙古鄂尔多斯 5500 | 元/吨 | 525.0 | 2.0 | 57.0 | | | 陕西榆林 5800 | 元/吨 | 598.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | | 港口价格 | 秦港山西产 Q5500 | 元/吨 | 727.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | | | 秦港山西产 Q5000 | 元/吨 | 647.0 | 5.0 | 22.0 | | | 秦港山西产 Q4500 | 元/吨 | 565.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | | ...

2026 年 02 月 25 日 铅：国内库存增加，限制价格反弹 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16670 | -0.18% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1952 | -0.74% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 55285 | 8374 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3350 | -940 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 69712 | 205 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 169673 | 925 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -50 | -50 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -46.44 | 0.69 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | 135 | 200 | 进口升贴 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 25 日 铁矿石：需求预期不佳，震荡下行 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -5.5 | -0.74% | | | I2605 | | 740.5 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 519,204 | 24,654 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 卡粉（65%） | 860.0 | 855.0 | 5.0 | | | 进口矿 | PB（61.5%） | 747.0 | 756.0 | -9.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴 （61%） | 697.0 | 705.0 | -8.0 | | | | 超特（56.5%） | 641.0 | 644.0 | -3.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邯邢（66%） | 899.0 | 919.0 ...

2026年02月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，价格表现较坚挺 | 4 | | 工业硅：处于相对低估值区间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：情绪或提振盘面 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 25 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 2）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 3）SMM 报道印尼林业工作组披露了多家企业违规占用林地，面临的潜在罚款约 80.2 万亿印尼盾，部 分受影响的矿山正与政府部门进行积极协商 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 25 日 纸浆：震荡偏强 20260225 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 340 | 5, 260 | +80 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 378 | - | | | | | 成交量(手) | 175. 423 | 164. 325 | +11.098 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 249.662 | 269.664 | -20.002 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 155, 621 | 154. 612 | +1.009 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -19.406 | -18.079 | -1, 327 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 10 | -10 | +20 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -740 | -680 | -60 | | | 月差 | SP03- ...