Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee provides a favorable risk - preference environment for the bull market of Chinese - funded stocks. The overall tone of the plenary session rules out the probability of macro - tail risks and emphasizes the continuous and timely strengthening of macro - policies to achieve annual economic and social development goals [2][3]. - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the development of the science and technology industry will be placed in a relatively prominent position. The three important main lines of the 15th Five - Year Plan are national security, scientific and technological self - reliance and industrial innovation, and benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption [4][5][6]. - "Science and technology" is the main investment line during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Strategic emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and biological manufacturing are key investment opportunities, and some new consumption tracks are also worthy of attention [8][9]. - Currently, the valuation of Chinese - funded stocks is in a reasonable range. Structurally, the valuation cost - performance of the technology sectors in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks is higher than that of the broader market indices. The high valuation of Chinese technology assets matches the high growth rate, and the valuation gap between Chinese and US technology assets is expected to narrow [10][14][18]. - The trend of emerging industries represented by the AI industry chain is becoming clearer. A - shares focus on upstream computing power hardware, while Hong Kong stocks focus on mid - stream Internet giants and downstream software applications. The performance realization path of the AI industry chain of Chinese - funded stocks generally follows the order of computing power chips → infrastructure giants' IaaS → application - end software/media [22][23][26]. - The emerging industry trend represented by innovative drugs is becoming clearer. The innovative drug sector has begun to release performance, and the shift from "local commercialization" to "going global" is the key driving force for the leap - forward development of the innovative drug sector [33][34][35]. - In the short term, the earnings season may increase the volatility of the Chinese - funded stock market. TACO trading can be "batch - wise" bought at low prices, with a focus on technology assets. In the medium term, Chinese - funded stocks maintain a barbell strategy, with A - shares for offense and Hong Kong stocks for defense [37][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Policy Environment and Investment Direction during the 15th Five - Year Plan - **Policy Timeline**: In October 2025, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee released a communiqué to set the direction for the 15th Five - Year Plan. In 2026, the central government will release a draft proposal for the plan, and the Two Sessions will review and release the "Outline" with specific quantitative targets. In the second half of 2026, ministries may start to promote the implementation of special and industry plans [2]. - **Policy Focus**: The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized the continuous and timely strengthening of macro - policies, aiming to achieve annual economic and social development goals, stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and resolve local government debt risks [3]. - **Investment Main Lines**: The three main lines are national security, scientific and technological self - reliance and industrial innovation, and benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption. The frequency of mentions of "science and technology" and "industry" in the Fourth Plenary Session communiqué has significantly increased compared to the Third Plenary Session, indicating that the 15th Five - Year Plan may prioritize the development of these two dimensions [5][6]. 2. Valuation Analysis of Chinese - Funded Stocks - **Forward PE**: The forward PE of the broader market indices of A - shares and Hong Kong stocks (Hang Seng Index/Shanghai Composite Index) has reached around the average + 1 STD in the past 10 years, while the forward PE of the technology sector indices (Hang Seng Information Technology Index/GEM Index) has only reached around the 10 - year average, indicating that the technology sectors in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have higher valuation cost - performance [14]. - **PEG**: Based on the 3 - year EPS compound growth rate, the PEG of the Hang Seng Technology Index, Hang Seng Information Technology Index, and GEM Index is lower than that of the Nasdaq and S&P 500, showing that the high valuation of Chinese technology assets matches the high growth rate [18]. - **PB - ROE**: With the continuous improvement of the profitability of Chinese technology companies, the valuation gap between Chinese and US technology assets is expected to narrow due to factors such as the mapping of overseas AI assets, the huge domestic demand potential of the Chinese market, and long - term strategic policy support [19][21]. 3. AI Industry Chain Analysis - **Industrial Focus**: A - shares focus on upstream computing power hardware, including chips, PCBs, AI server assembly, and network solution providers. Hong Kong stocks focus on mid - stream Internet giants and downstream software applications, covering model development, deep - learning frameworks, and various AI - related application fields [22][23][24]. - **Performance Realization Path**: The performance realization path of the AI industry chain of Chinese - funded stocks generally follows the order of computing power chips → infrastructure giants' IaaS → application - end software/media. Upstream, the performance of A - share light modules, PCBs, and server OEMs driven by external demand is realized first, followed by GPU/chip manufacturing and AI infrastructure platforms driven by domestic demand. In the application layer, the payment willingness for AI products is relatively lagging, and the monetization business models in most fields are still being verified [26][27]. - **Market Performance**: Benefiting from the explosive growth of global AI computing power demand, some advantageous segments of the A - share AI industry chain (PCB/light module/server assembly segments) have achieved significant stock price increases driven by EPS. The capital expenditure of cloud service providers in China and the US is still rising, and the prosperity of the AI industry chain is expected to continue to climb [28][30][32]. 4. Innovative Drug Industry Analysis - **Performance Release**: The innovative drug sector has begun to release performance, with many innovative drug companies showing positive revenue year - on - year growth rates. In contrast, the traditional drug sector and some CXO companies have relatively poor performance [34]. - **Development Trend**: The shift from "local commercialization" to "going global" is the key driving force for the leap - forward development of the innovative drug sector. The innovative drug index still has about a 40% recovery space compared to the high point in 2021, indicating considerable growth potential [34][35]. 5. Investment Strategy for Chinese - Funded Stocks - **Short - Term Strategy**: In the short term, the earnings season may increase the volatility of the Chinese - funded stock market. TACO trading can be "batch - wise" bought at low prices, with a focus on technology assets such as the AI industry chain, innovative drugs, and self - controllable sectors. The Hang Seng Technology Index with higher odds and cost - performance is the top - recommended direction for Hong Kong stocks [37][38]. - **Medium - Term Strategy**: In the medium term, Chinese - funded stocks maintain a barbell strategy. A - shares are more suitable for offense, focusing on technology themes and anti - involution industries. Hong Kong stocks are more suitable for defense, including Internet, new consumption, innovative drugs, and banking and large - scale financial sectors [38].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wu Guangjing, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0011992 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 28, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, reaching a 15 - month high, due to market optimism about a potential trade agreement between the US and China. If no procurement commitment is made, soybean futures prices may fall. As of October 26, soybean harvest completion was 84%, slightly lower than 88% in the same period last year but 2 percentage points higher than the five - year average [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Data of Soybean Meal/Soybean No.1 Futures - DCE Soybean No.1 2601: Closing price (day session) 4115 yuan/ton, up 27 (+0.66%); closing price (night session) 4129 yuan/ton, up 37 (+0.90%) [2] - DCE Soybean Meal 2601: Closing price (day session) 2975 yuan/ton, up 41 (+1.40%); closing price (night session) 2991 yuan/ton, up 25 (+0.84%) [2] - CBOT Soybean 01: 1093.5 cents/bushel, up 10 (+0.92%) [2] - CBOT Soybean Meal 12: 306.5 dollars/short ton, up 8.8 (+2.96%) [2] Spot - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) is 2970 - 3020 yuan/ton, flat to +30 compared to the previous day. The spot basis is M2601 + 70, flat. For different periods, basis prices have different changes [2] - In East China, prices and basis of different enterprises and periods have various fluctuations, such as the price of Taizhou Huifu is 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 compared to the previous day [2] - In South China, prices and basis of different enterprises and periods also show different trends, like the price range is 2940 - 3060 yuan/ton, up 20 - 40 compared to the previous day [2] Main Industry Data - Trading volume (10,000 tons/day) of soybean meal: 6.52 in the previous trading day, 11.85 in the two previous trading days [2] - Inventory (10,000 tons/week) of soybean meal: 100.44 in the previous week, 96.31 in the two previous weeks [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On October 28, CBOT soybean futures reached a 15 - month high. Market optimism stems from the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders on Thursday, with hopes of a trade agreement and large - scale soybean procurement. Analysts estimate that as of October 26, soybean harvest completion was 84% [3] 3. Trend Intensity - Soybean Meal Trend Intensity: 0 - Soybean No.1 Trend Intensity: +1, referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the day session on the report day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report anticipates the trend of various futures on October 29, 2025, with some futures expected to have a strong - side oscillation and others a weak - side oscillation. It also provides resistance and support levels for each futures contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast - **Strong - side Oscillation Futures**: IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512, T2512, TL2512, AU2512, AG2512, CU2512, AL2512, AO2601, LC2601, RB2601, HC2601, I2601, JM2601, FG601, SA601, V2601, M2601 are expected to have a strong - side oscillation, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2][3][4][6]. - **Weak - side Oscillation Futures**: SC2512, TA601, Y2601, P2601 are expected to have a weak - side oscillation, with corresponding resistance and support levels [6]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - "The 14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions are released, aiming at economic growth, technological self - reliance, and further reform. It also promotes the development of strategic emerging industries [7]. - China and ASEAN sign the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths this Thursday [8]. - China is committed to expanding high - level opening - up in the financial field [8]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [8]. - Amendments to the Cybersecurity Law and the Environmental Protection Tax Law are passed [8]. - The number of overseas tourists handling tax - free shopping and the tax - refund amount have increased significantly [9]. - The U.S. government shutdown continues as the bill fails to pass the Senate [9]. - Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the U.S., with $100 billion for nuclear reactors [9]. - The U.S. and South Korea plan to cooperate in AI, quantum computing, and 6G [9]. - ADP will release weekly employment data [10]. 3. Commodity Futures Related Information - On October 28, international precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold down 1.28% and COMEX silver up 0.78%. Analysts expect gold prices to fall in the next three months [12]. - U.S. and Brent crude oil futures prices declined due to increased inventory and weak demand [12]. - Most London base metals rose on October 28 [13]. - The U.S. President nominates a new CFTC chairman [13]. - The Bank of Korea is considering buying gold [13]. - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, hitting a nearly one - year high [13]. - The U.S. dollar index declined, and most non - U.S. currencies rose [14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On October 28, major stock index futures contracts showed a trend of opening low, rising and then falling. Short - term upward momentum weakened, and downward pressure increased slightly [14][15][16]. - It is expected that in October 2025, IF, IH will have a strong - side wide - range oscillation, while IC and IM will have a wide - range oscillation. On October 29, all four contracts are expected to have a strong - side oscillation [19][20]. Treasury Bond Futures - On October 28, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts had a strong - side oscillation. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of funds [36][40]. - It is expected that on October 29, both the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts will have a strong - side oscillation [38][41]. Precious Metal Futures - On October 28, gold and silver futures contracts had a weak - side oscillation. It is expected that in October 2025, both will have a strong - side wide - range oscillation and reach new highs. On October 29, they are expected to have a strong - side oscillation [44][50]. Base Metal Futures - On October 28, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts generally showed a downward trend. It is expected that in October 2025, most will have a strong - side wide - range oscillation, while alumina will have a weak - side wide - range oscillation. On October 29, they are expected to have a strong - side oscillation [54][58][63]. Other Commodity Futures - On October 28, iron ore, coking coal, and other commodity futures contracts had different trends. It is expected that in October 2025, they will have different oscillations, and on October 29, most will have a strong - side oscillation, while crude oil, PTA, soybean oil, and palm oil will have a weak - side oscillation [81][85][97].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is expected to continue oscillating, alumina to remain flat in the short - term, and cast aluminum alloy to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,140, down 220 from T - 1. The trading volume was 187,481, down 21,767 from T - 1. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,894, up 16 from T - 1. The LME注销仓单占比 was 13.09%, down 9.62% from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,817, down 12 from T - 1. The trading volume was 314,332, up 35,771 from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,575, down 140 from T - 1. The trading volume was 2,553, down 4,162 from T - 1 [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum - related Premiums**: The Shanghai Bonded Area Premium was 83, unchanged from T - 1. The EU Rotterdam Aluminum Ingot Premium (MB) was 307.5, up 20 from T - 1 [1]. - **Processing Fees**: The Foshan Aluminum Rod processing fee was 220, unchanged from T - 1. The Shandong 1A60 Aluminum Rod processing fee was 100, down 100 from T - 1 [1]. - **Price Differences**: The aluminum ingot scrap - refined price difference was 232, down 72 from T - 1 [1]. Enterprise - related Data - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,114.54, up 6.74 from T - 1. The aluminum spot import profit was - 2,438.43, up 52.5 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,910, unchanged from T - 1. The alumina enterprise profit in Shanxi was - 120, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 29, up 2 from T - 1 [1]. Other Information - **ADP Employment Data**: As of the four - week period ending October 11, the average number of new private - sector jobs in the US was about 14,000. ADP will start releasing weekly preliminary estimates of the ADP National Employment Report this week [2]. - **"15th Five - Year Plan"**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal mentioned "finance" 17 times and put forward requirements such as "accelerating the construction of a financial power" [2]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily market analysis and trading suggestions for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, etc. Each product has its own market situation, trend, and influencing factors. For example, some products are in a high - level or low - level shock state, some are affected by supply - demand relationships, and others are influenced by macro - events [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Conditions**: PX is in a high - level shock market; PTA's valuation declines as oil prices fall; MEG is in a short - term shock market [2][4]. - **Data**: PX's main contract closed at 6618 yesterday, down 8; PTA's main contract closed at 4614, down 2; MEG's main contract closed at 4069, down 40 [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: PX prices fell today due to concerns about weak demand, while some PTA and PET producers' planned meetings may affect the market. A 700,000 - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China, has restarted. The planned arrival volume at the main ports for MEG from October 27 to November 2 is about 198,000 tons [6][7]. - **Suggestions**: For PX, go short on PXN at high levels. For PTA, pay attention to the results of the anti - involution meeting, and its processing fee is expected to expand in the short term. For MEG, there may be a short - term rebound, but the height is expected to be limited [8][9]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Conditions**: Due to the weakness of butadiene, the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure [2][10]. - **Data**: The main contract of cis - butadiene rubber closed at 10,805 yesterday, down 190. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu's mainstream market is 7,900, down 200 [10]. - **Analysis**: The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, and the short - term weakness of butadiene drives down the dynamic valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber. It is expected to have a wide - range shock pattern of capital game in the short term, and the medium - term price center will gradually move down [11][12]. 3.3 LLDPE - **Market Conditions**: Mainly in a shock state [2][13]. - **Data**: The L2601 contract closed at 6985 yesterday, down 0.20% [13]. - **Analysis**: The decline in crude oil prices affects PE. The rigid demand of downstream industries supports the market, and the inventory is decreasing. However, the supply pressure will gradually increase in the future, and the market is in a shock situation [13][14]. 3.4 PP - **Market Conditions**: Stop falling in the short term and fluctuate in the medium term [2][17]. - **Data**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6657 yesterday, down 0.37% [17]. - **Analysis**: Multiple factors cause downward pressure on PP, but recent oil price rebounds and supply - side production cuts lead to a short - term rebound. In the long term, it may be in a weak - shock pattern [18]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - **Market Conditions**: The far - month valuation is suppressed [2][23]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price is 2341, and the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 [23]. - **Analysis**: The procurement price of alumina manufacturers has been reduced, and the high - inventory and low - profit situation of the alumina industry suppresses the valuation of caustic soda. The cost of caustic soda has also decreased recently [21][22]. 3.6 Glass - **Market Conditions**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][25]. - **Data**: The FG601 contract closed at 1113 yesterday, up 1.83% [26]. - **Analysis**: The domestic float - glass market price is mainly stable, with slight adjustments in some regions, and the overall sales are average [26]. 3.7 Methanol - **Market Conditions**: Under shock pressure [2][28]. - **Data**: The main contract of methanol closed at 2,241 yesterday, down 27 [29]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental pressure of methanol is large, but the valuation is moderately low. Affected by macro - events, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the medium - term price center will move down [31][32]. 3.8 Urea - **Market Conditions**: Spot trading weakens, and pressure gradually increases [2][33]. - **Data**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,635 yesterday, down 5 [33]. - **Analysis**: As the price of urea rises, downstream follow - up slows down. In November, the daily output increases while demand weakens, and the price is under pressure. The futures 01 contract may face pressure above 1660 yuan/ton [34][35]. 3.9 Styrene - **Market Conditions**: Mainly in a short - term shock state [2][36]. - **Data**: The styrene 2512 contract closed at 6,848 yesterday, down 95 [36]. - **Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the market mainly trades cost contradictions. The downstream is in a negative feedback stage, and the terminal demand has not improved. Pay attention to the marginal demand increase after the Sino - US negotiation [37]. 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Conditions**: Little change in the spot market [2][39]. - **Data**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1,239 yesterday, with no change [40]. - **Analysis**: The domestic soda - ash market is weakly stable, the supply increases slightly, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern in the short term [40]. 3.11 LPG and Propylene - **Market Conditions**: The upward driving force of LPG is limited, and propylene is in a short - term weak - shock state due to loose supply - demand [2][42]. - **Data**: PG2512 of LPG closed at 4,266 yesterday, up 0.33%; PL2601 of propylene closed at 6,112, down 0.65% [42]. - **Analysis**: Pay attention to the cost changes of LPG. The supply - demand of propylene is loose, and the short - term trend is weak [42]. 3.12 PVC - **Market Conditions**: In a low - level shock state [2][51]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price is 4716, and the spot price in East China is 4600 [49]. - **Analysis**: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure. The reduction - production drive is insufficient, and the export growth may slow down, so the trend is still under pressure [49]. 3.13 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Conditions**: Fuel oil has a short - term retracement, and the fluctuation continues to expand. Low - sulfur fuel oil is temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [2][52]. - **Data**: FU2511 of fuel oil closed at 2,970 yesterday, down 1.39%; LU2511 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,231, down 0.89% [52]. - **Analysis**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show different trends, and relevant data such as inventory and price difference are provided [52]. 3.14 Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market Conditions**: In a shock - consolidation state [2][54]. - **Data**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1,788.3 yesterday, down 0.66%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1,548.7, down 2.44% [54]. - **Analysis**: The spot freight rate has an upward trend, and the supply - demand situation shows that the weekly average capacity in November increases. For the 2512 contract, consider a low - buying strategy; the 2602 contract has a stronger game nature [63][64][65]. 3.15 Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market Conditions**: Both have a short - term rebound due to positive demand feedback [2][67]. - **Data**: The staple - fiber 2512 contract closed at 6,250 yesterday, up 8; the bottle - chip 2512 contract closed at 5,740, down 10 [67]. - **Analysis**: The staple - fiber futures follow the raw materials to be strong, and the factory price of bottle chips is raised. However, the trading atmosphere of bottle chips has declined [67][68]. 3.16 Offset Printing Paper - **Market Conditions**: In a low - level shock state [2][70]. - **Data**: The OP2601.SHF contract closed at 4226 yesterday, down 6 [70]. - **Analysis**: The price of offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable. Some paper mills issue price - increase letters, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [71][73]. 3.17 Pure Benzene - **Market Conditions**: Mainly in a short - term shock state [2][74]. - **Data**: The BZ2603 contract closed at 5495 yesterday, down 74 [74]. - **Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the market mainly trades cost contradictions. Pay attention to the changes in port inventory [74].

Report Overview - Date: October 29, 2025 - Report Name: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Slow destocking in producing areas, focus on downside support [2] - Soybean oil: Rebound in US soybeans, decline in the oil - meal ratio [2] - Soybean meal: Strong US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal rebounds and fluctuates [2] - Soybean: Strong and fluctuating [2] - Corn: Fluctuating weakly [2] - Sugar: Weak overseas, strong domestic [2] - Cotton: Higher cost of new cotton supports cotton futures prices [2] - Eggs: Maintaining adjustment [2] - Live pigs: Spot sentiment declines, waiting for confirmation [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil futures prices (day session: 8,958 yuan/ton, -1.56%; night session: 8,824 yuan/ton, -1.50%); soybean oil futures prices (day session: 8,182 yuan/ton, -0.63%; night session: 8,080 yuan/ton, -1.25%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads of related products are also provided [5]. - **News**: Indonesia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% to about 5,600 million tons, and exports are expected to be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both -1 [10]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2601 futures price (day session: 4,115 yuan/ton, +0.66%; night session: 4,129 yuan/ton, +0.90%); DCE soybean meal 2601 futures price (day session: 2,975 yuan/ton, +1.40%; night session: 2,991 yuan/ton, +0.84%). Spot prices and industry data such as trading volume and inventory are also provided [11]. - **News**: On October 28, CBOT soybean futures hit a 15 - month high due to expectations of a Sino - US trade agreement [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0; soybean trend intensity is +1 [13]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: Corn futures prices (C2511: day session 2,109 yuan/ton, +0.38%; night session 2,105 yuan/ton, -0.19%; C2601: day session 2,123 yuan/ton, +0.28%; night session 2,123 yuan/ton, 0.00%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [15]. - **News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou prices also decreased by 10 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar price is 14.37 cents/pound, -0.09; mainstream spot price is 5,730 yuan/ton, 0; futures main contract price is 5,483 yuan/ton, +38. Spreads and basis are also provided [18]. - **News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons). The CAOC expects China's 25/26 sugar production to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 futures price (day session: 13,565 yuan/ton, 0.00%; night session: 13,575 yuan/ton, 0.07%); CY2601 futures price (day session: 19,765 yuan/ton, -0.03%; night session: 19,785 yuan/ton, 0.10%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [21]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading is mostly sluggish, with some low - basis transactions being better. ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to optimistic expectations of international economic and trade relations [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg futures prices (egg 2511: 2,866 yuan/500 kg, -1.85%; egg 2601: 3,304 yuan/500 kg, -0.12%). Spreads, spot prices, and related industry data are also provided [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Live pig spot prices (Henan: 12,630 yuan/ton; Sichuan: 12,300 yuan/ton; Guangdong: 12,360 yuan/ton). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [30]. - **Market Information**: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses. The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is 0 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Peanut spot prices (Liaoning 308 general: 8,200 yuan/ton; Henan Baisha general: 6,900 yuan/ton, -100; Xingcheng Xiaoriben: 7,900 yuan/ton, +40; Sudan refined rice: 8,650 yuan/ton, 0). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [33]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, peanut prices are chaotic, and supply is not fully released. In Liaoning, farmers are reluctant to sell, and trading is stalemate. In Xingcheng, the market is active [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory and concerns about nickel ore are in a game, leading to a narrow - range oscillation of nickel prices [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is limited downward potential, but there is a lack of upward driving force [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The spot bidding price is at a high level, showing a strong - running trend [2][7]. - Industrial silicon: With the reduction of warehouse receipts, there is an obvious bottom support [2][11]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment has cooled down, and there is a risk of a price decline [2][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,560 yuan, down 1,840 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 156,296 lots, an increase of 26,763 lots compared to T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,750 yuan, down 65 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume was 131,733 lots, a decrease of 80,991 lots compared to T - 1 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a nickel - mining area of PT WedaBav Nickel due to violations. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and issued a ministerial order regarding the approval process of the RKAB. Trump claimed to impose a 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 80,800 yuan, down 320 yuan compared to T - 1, with a trading volume of 64,993 lots, a decrease of 4,495 lots compared to T - 1. The closing price of the 2601 contract was 81,640 yuan, down 260 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume was 729,307 lots, an increase of 214,852 lots compared to T - 1 [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. Some car brands announced New - Year - crossing purchase - tax subsidy plans. A subsidiary of Dazhong Mining obtained a mining license for a lithium mine in Hunan, which is expected to produce 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2601 contract for industrial silicon was 8,965 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan compared to T - 1, with a trading volume of 198,198 lots, an increase of 10,934 lots compared to T - 1. The closing price of the PS2601 contract for polysilicon was 54,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,195 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume was 238,898 lots, an increase of 69,856 lots compared to T - 1 [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. From January to September, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend; the trend intensity of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [14].

Report Date - The report is dated October 29, 2025 [1][5][8] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including copper, zinc, lead, etc., with most commodities expected to show oscillatory trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][7] - **Zinc**: Continuing to oscillate. The trend strength is 0 [2][8][10] - **Lead**: Overseas inventories are continuously decreasing, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][11] - **Aluminum**: Continuing to oscillate. Alumina is in short - term sideways movement, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength for all is 0 [2][13][14] - **Nickel**: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and nickel prices are oscillating in a narrow range. Stainless steel has limited downward potential and lacks upward drivers. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][15][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot tender price is at a high level, showing a strong - side operation. The trend strength is 1 [2][18][21] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is obvious bottom support. The trend strength is 1 [2][22][25] - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there is a risk of a decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][23][25] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][26][27] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro sentiment, steel prices are oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][28][31] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][33][35] - **Coke**: Oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][36][38] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][37][38] Others - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][39][42] - **Para - Xylene**: In a high - level oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **PTA**: Oil prices have corrected, and valuations have declined. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weak, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][50][52] - **LLDPE**: Mainly oscillating. No trend strength provided [2] - **PP**: Stopping falling in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed. No trend strength provided [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillating under pressure. No trend strength provided [2] - **Urea**: Spot trading has weakened, and pressure is gradually increasing. No trend strength provided [2] - **Styrene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. No trend strength provided [2] - **LPG**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost changes. No trend strength provided [2] - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is oscillating weakly in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Retreating in the short term, with continued increased volatility. No trend strength provided [2] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating and consolidating. No trend strength provided [2] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Rebounding in the short term due to positive demand feedback. No trend strength provided [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [4] - **Palm Oil**: The de - stocking in the producing areas is slow, and attention should be paid to the lower support. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Oil**: US soybeans have rebounded, and the oil - meal ratio has declined. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are strong, and Dalian soybean meal is rebounding and oscillating. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean No.1**: Oscillating on the strong side. No trend strength provided [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating weakly. No trend strength provided [4] - **Sugar**: Weak overseas and strong domestic. No trend strength provided [4] - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton has increased, supporting the futures price of cotton. No trend strength provided [4] - **Egg**: Maintaining adjustment. No trend strength provided [4] - **Live Pig**: The sentiment in the spot market has declined, awaiting confirmation. No trend strength provided [4] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. No trend strength provided [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is fluctuating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision this week [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract yesterday was 86,980, with a daily decline of 1.57%, and the night - session closing price was 87,910, with a night - session increase of 1.07%. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk closing price was 11,030, with an increase of 0.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index yesterday was 396,365, a decrease of 808 from the previous day, and the open interest was 595,121, a decrease of 18,012. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic - disk was 21,767, a decrease of 2,744, and the open interest was 323,000, an increase of 2,194 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper futures inventory was 35,846, an increase of 454. The LME copper inventory was 134,575, a decrease of 1,400, and the注销仓单比 was 8.30%, an increase of 0.97% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread increased by 2.13 to - 23.84 compared with the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price decreased by 100 to 78,900. The spot - to - near - month futures spread decreased by 10 to - 55 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision this week. The U.S. Treasury yield remained almost unchanged, and the U.S. dollar index fluctuated lower. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to take extraordinary measures to promote key core technology breakthroughs in key areas [1] - **Industry**: Antofagasta's copper production in Q3 2025 was 161,800 tons, a 1% quarter - on - quarter increase, and the annual production is expected to be at the lower end of the 660,000 - 700,000 - ton guidance range. Indonesia may allow Amman Mineral international to export copper concentrates. Trump overturned a pollution - prevention regulation on copper smelters. Anglo American's Q3 copper production was 184,000 tons, higher than the same period last year, but the production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% year - on - year to 526,000 tons [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral trend [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggestions offer important policy signals, including promoting high - quality economic development, improving the investment and financing functions of the capital market, accelerating the construction of a financial power, consolidating the foundation of the real economy, promoting high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, building a strong domestic market, and enhancing fiscal sustainability [8]. - The copper market is expected to remain firm. Macro factors and production disruptions may change the supply - demand pattern, and new industries are expected to drive long - term demand. The trading strategy is to buy on dips or take long positions [10]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to have a wide - range shock pattern in the short - term and a downward - trending price center in the medium - term due to the weak performance of butadiene [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "15th Five - Year Plan" Suggestions - The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions aim to promote high - quality economic development, enhance scientific and technological self - reliance, develop direct financing, build a financial power, and strengthen the real economy. They also focus on technological breakthroughs, consumption promotion, and government debt management [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Macro and Industry News**: Market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. The "15th Five - Year Plan" will introduce economic stimulus measures. Antofagasta's Q3 copper production increased by 1% quarter - on - quarter. Indonesia may allow a copper exporter to resume exports, and Trump reversed a pollution control regulation. Anglo American's Q3 copper production rose year - on - year, but the first three quarters' output decreased [10][18][20]. - **Trend**: The copper price is expected to remain firm. The market risk appetite is boosted, and the supply - demand pattern may change. The demand from new industries is expected to drive long - term growth [10]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Situation**: Butadiene is weak, driving down the valuation of cis - butadiene rubber. The short - term fundamental drive of butadiene is downward, and the price center of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to decline in the medium - term [12]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Zinc**: Continues to oscillate. The trend strength is neutral [21][23]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is neutral [24]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum continues to oscillate, alumina has a short - term sideways movement, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength is neutral [26][27]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: Nickel price has a narrow - range oscillation due to the game between smelting inventory and nickel ore concerns. Stainless steel has limited downward space and lacks upward drive. The trend strength is neutral [28][30]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Runs strongly with high - level spot bidding. The trend strength is slightly positive [31][34]. - **Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has obvious bottom support with warehouse receipt reduction. Polysilicon market sentiment cools, and there is a risk of decline. The trend strengths are 1 and - 1 respectively [35][36][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is neutral [39][40]. - **Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro sentiment, the steel price has a strong - trending oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [40][41][45]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicate**: Have a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [46][48]. - **Coke, Coking Coal**: Coke has a strong - trending oscillation, and coking coal is supported by fundamentals with a strong - trending oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [49][50][51]. - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is neutral [52][55]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, MEG**: Para - xylene is in a high - level oscillation market, PTA's valuation drops with the oil price decline, and MEG has a short - term oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [56][61]. - **Rubber**: Oscillates. No specific trend strength is mentioned [63].