国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期回调 | | • | 本周(20260122-0128)，中国尿素生产企业产量：145.49万吨，较上期涨3.11万吨，环比涨2.18%。周期内新增2家企业装置停车，6家停车装置恢 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 复生产，同时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量明显增加。下周，中国尿素周产量预计147万吨附近，较本期小幅增加。下个周期暂无企业装 置计划停车，1-3家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量增幅有限。（隆众资讯） | | 需求 | • | 内需方面，伴随尿素现货持续上涨，中游贸易商追高情绪有所转弱，春节前预计中游及复合肥工厂刚需采购为主，不追高，逢低买。 | | | • | 出口方面，根据了解，出口对尿素市场 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 01 CONTENTS 2 02 短纤（PF） 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 瓶片：震荡偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 策略 2）跨期：反套持有 3）跨品种：无 03 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：高位震荡，控制仓位 供应 短纤工厂开始集中检修，平均负荷降低至85.3%，低熔点及中空短纤方面减停力度较大，棉型相对较小。 需求 终端开工率加速下行，以农历时间对比略早于往年。在原料快速上涨过程中，纱线、坯布价格跟涨不及，下游一方面担心年后价格上涨，另一 方面受制于利润，小幅补年前的库存为主。纱线、坯布环节的成品库存下降。出口订单环比好转，主要由于当前至美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is high - level oscillation, with limited upside and downside potential. Macroscopically, Trump's agreement information reduces the probability of geopolitical conflicts, and the nomination of the Fed chair causes a decline in precious metals, leading to a weak macro sentiment. However, the strong international energy prices support the downside of methanol. Fundamentally, the short - term supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and high port inventories suppress the upside of prices. [2][4] - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO factories) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan. The coal price increase in the fourth quarter stabilizes the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol at around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower valuation. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary - **Supply**: From January 23 - 29, 2026, China's methanol production was 2037735 tons, an increase of 28820 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a week - on - week increase of 1.43%. Next week, production is expected to be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 92.98%, higher than the current period, as the planned restored capacity exceeds the capacity for maintenance and production cuts. [4] - **Demand**: - **Olefins**: The operating rate of the MTO industry increased slightly with the load increase of Ningbo Fude's MTO plant. - **Traditional downstream**: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin plant may stop production next week, reducing supply and potentially lowering the overall capacity utilization rate. For glacial acetic acid, there are no planned maintenance activities next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, plants such as Xinxing Chemical and Gushi Huanyu may stop for maintenance, and Shandong Lianyi may further reduce the load, so supply is expected to decrease and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clear plans for plant shutdowns, but some plants may restart, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. [4] - **Inventory**: - As of 11:30 on January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's sampled methanol producers was 424100 tons, a decrease of 14200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.24%; the pending order volume of sampled enterprises was 265700 tons, an increase of 27400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 11.50%. - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4721 million tons, an increase of 14600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.00%. Port inventories continued to accumulate, mainly in East China. There were 191400 tons of foreign vessel discharges, all in East China.提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu weakened, and although there was an olefin plant restart in Zhejiang, inventories still accumulated due to the supply from foreign vessels. In South China, there was only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment in Guangdong, and the mainstream storage areas'提货 weakened, resulting in inventory reduction due to the lack of foreign vessel supply. In Fujian, there were no discharges, and inventories also decreased. [4] - **Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Short - term high - level oscillation, with the upper resistance for 05 contract at 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 9 spread may show a positive spread pattern. - **Inter - commodity**: The spread between MA and PP is in an oscillatory pattern. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of methanol's basis, month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2026, including the basis of methanol on CZCE, 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipt quantity, domestic low - end prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and other regions, international CFR prices in China and Southeast Asia, FOB price in Rotterdam, and price differences between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, etc. [7][12][16][20] 3.3 Supply - **Methanol Production and Operating Rate**: Graphs display the daily production and capacity utilization rates of methanol in China and abroad, as well as the weekly production in the Northwest region from 2018 to 2026. [25] - **Methanol Production by Process**: Graphs present the weekly production of methanol from different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, and coal co - alcohol) in China from 2018 to 2026. [27][28][29] - **Methanol Operating Rate by Region**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 to 2026. [30][31][32] - **Methanol Import - related**: Graphs show the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2026. [34][35][36][37] - **Methanol Cost and Profit**: Graphs display the daily production costs and profits of methanol from different processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural gas - based in Chongqing) from 2020 to 2026. [38][41] 3.4 Demand - **Methanol Downstream Operating Rate**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc.) in China from 2020 to 2026. [46][47][48][50] - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Graphs present the daily production profits of methanol downstream industries (MTO in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu, etc.) from 2020 to 2026. [53][54][55][58] - **MTO Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs display the procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Central China) from 2020 to 2026. [62][63][64][65] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs show the raw material procurement volumes of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (North, East, and Southwest) from 2020 to 2026. [67][68][69][70] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region**: Graphs display the raw material inventories of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (Northwest, Shandong, and South) from 2020 to 2026. [72][73][74][75] 3.5 Inventory - **Methanol Factory Inventory**: Graphs show the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Inner Mongolia) from 2018 to 2026. [77][78][79][80] - **Methanol Port Inventory**: Graphs present the weekly port inventories of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong) from 2018 to 2026. [82][83][84]

铂钯周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 杨蕤（联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 日期：2026年02月01日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 强弱分析：铂金偏弱、钯金偏弱 价格区间：广铂主力500-600元/克、广钯主力400-480 元/克 本周铂钯周一冲高后周二、三、四表现略乏力，没有跟进金银趋势，并于周五跟随金银巨幅回调。广铂周跌幅12.46%，广钯周跌幅 12.10%；周五夜盘外盘铂钯进一步下行，伦敦铂金现货最低至1984美元/盎司，最终尾盘收复部分失地，以周度回撤16.81%收场，钯金 最低行至1601美元/盎司，周度回撤15.32%。 铂金目前高点行至我们给出的年度目标值3000美元/盎司下方戛然而止，随后上行动能略显乏力。从高频数据线索来看，伦敦铂金市场远 期贴水程度快速收敛，目前全期现年化贴水从周一的10%上下快速回落在6%以下，并且3M曲线更凸的特性不再，我们认为此远期结构 变动系内外价差随着绝对价格回落快速收敛后内外套利头寸的境外远期多头获利离场 ...

美豆多空因素与观点 美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 | | 2、巴西进入收割阶段，丰收概率增加 | | 3、阿根廷短暂干旱后有望迎来降水 | | 利多因素 | | 1、中国完成购买美豆1200万吨，未来三年每年2500万吨以上 | | 2、阿根廷前期干旱，单产可能下调 | | 3、美元走弱对美豆构成支撑 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 市场价格 ...

石脑油产业链周度报告 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 裂解-甲苯 脑油-芳烃 汽油-调油估值 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 总结 1 本周石脑油观点：乙烯或震荡筑底 石脑油维持窄幅震荡 | | 石脑油 | 乙烯 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 中东一季度出口季节性下滑预计2月后逐步抬升，俄罗斯出口超预 | 主营炼厂开工继续抬升，民营开工预计下周提升，MTO开工环比下滑，但往 | | | 期，小幅调增后期出口预期，E/W价差持稳，美国套利物流因稀释 | 下空间有限，整体上游供应本周环比小幅增加，供应端预期继续抬升空间相 | | | 剂需求减少，整体亚洲供应小幅缩减 | 对有限 | | 需求 | 亚洲乙烯裂解本周利润小幅亏损维持，丙烷估值抬升后替代经济性下滑，裂解 | 本周下游衍生品开工开始提升，同时利润整体继续修复，若该利润继续维持 | | | 装置失去LPG原料补充经济性，26年一季度这部分需求将转回石脑油， ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：加速下跌；白银：快速宣泄情绪 强弱分析：黄金偏弱、白银偏弱 价格区间：1000-1100元/克、21000-25000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升0.72%，伦敦银回升4.23%。金银比从前周的50.3回落至47，10年期TIPS回升至1.9%，10年期名义利率回落至4.26%（2年期 3.52%），美元指数录得97.1。 ◆ 1月30日周四夜盘起，贵金属开启了历史性的暴跌，伦敦金从最高点接近5600美元在48小时内完成了约16%的跌幅，最低回到4700美元下方； 伦敦银则进一步彰显了其弹性，最高从121美元回到78美元附近，跌幅超过35%。当金银以超乎历史的斜率上行时 ...

二 五 2026 年 2 月 1 日 二 〇 国债期货周报 年 度 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 摘要： 上周周报我们提到"TL 合约上方压力位在 MA60 附近"，本周国债期货短端无明显波动，超长端有 所回落。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪 等原因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期、固收产品赎回超预期 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 上周周报我们提到"TL 合约上方压力位在 MA60 附近"，本周国债期货短端无明显波动，超长端有所回 落。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪等原 因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 2：活跃合约周度涨跌幅 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 2. 流动性监控与曲线跟踪 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：高位回落 本周合成橡胶观点：高位回落 供应 • 周期内茂名石化高顺顺丁装置重启，华北地区个别顺丁橡胶装置略有降负，总体产能利用率仅窄幅波动。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在3.07万吨，较上周期 增加0.0104万吨，环比+0.34%，产能利用率76.38%，环比0.27个百分点。周期内茂名石化顺丁橡胶装置投料重启，浩普新材料、振华新材料及山东益华顺 丁橡胶装置负荷略有下降。下周期暂无新装置重启或停车检修消息，但仍需谨慎观望民营顺丁橡胶装置负荷情况。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，周期内部分半钢胎样本企业受外贸订单支撑，装置排产稍有提升，对半钢胎样本企业产能利用率形成支撑；全钢胎出货表现平淡，部分企业 仍存控产现象，拖拽产能利用率微跌。预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率将有所下滑。近期多种原料价格高位运行，成本压力下，部分样本企业在1月 底至2月初开 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2026年2月1日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：短期地缘扰动偏强，基本面驱动向下 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量54.3万吨，较上周环比增加1.9%；其中，民用气商品量23.2万吨（+1.6%），醚后商品量16.9万吨（+2.9%）；伴随 炼厂负荷抬升，当前国内民用气商品量逐渐修复至历史同期中性偏低位，而醚后碳四商品量维持在24、25年水平。成本方面，美伊局势紧张， 原油周内宽幅震荡，对LPG价格扰动偏强；而寒潮扰动有限，美湾丙烷价格回落；中东2月CP出台，略高于市场预期，成本支撑持稳，现货贴水 则受3月供应回归预期 ...