商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 24 日 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE：节中地缘扰动，成本支撑偏强震荡 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6644 | -1.34% | 370693 | -17121 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -144 | | -184 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -65 | | -47 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6500 | | 6550 | | | | 华东 | 6550 | | 6650 | | | | 华南 | 6600 | | 6650 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货节前回调，上游前期库存转移，企业报价小幅下调，代理开单尚可。裕龙石化复产 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of copper has increased, and the price is fluctuating [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 100,380 with a daily decline of 1.91%, and the closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,901 with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 317,735, an increase of 74,706 from the previous day, and the position was 553,829, a decrease of 6,837. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,678, a decrease of 10,436, and the position was 318,000, a decrease of 4,000 [1] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai copper was 196,680, an increase of 9,501 from the previous day, and the inventory of LME copper was 235,150, an increase of 38,500. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper was 4.37%, a decrease of 6.64% [1] - **Spread Data**: The LME copper premium was -83.05, an increase of 11.66 from the previous day. The bonded warehouse receipt premium was 33, a decrease of 1, and the bonded bill of lading premium was 35, a decrease of 2. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 88,600, a decrease of 1,300. The spot - futures near - month spread was 0, an increase of 60; the near - month contract to the first - continuous contract spread was -510, a decrease of 150; the cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the first - continuous contract was 227. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was -509, an increase of 466; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - three contract and LME 3M was -107, an increase of 583; the spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 3,037, a decrease of 61; the import profit and loss of recycled copper was 655, an increase of 23 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Concerns about AI have intensified, and the risk of a tariff war has reignited. The three major US stock indexes closed down by at least about 1%. The US Customs will stop collecting tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court from February 24. The US Democratic Party will prevent any attempt to extend tariffs and promote a mandatory refund plan. The European Parliament has suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement [1][3] - **Industry News**: Harmony Gold Company said that the newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two years for transformation. Chilean state - owned miner Codelco's copper production in December 2025 increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 181,400 tons. In December 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2506 million tons, the consumption was 2.1526 million tons, and the supply surplus was 98,000 tons [1][3]

张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 2026 年 2 月 24 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 2）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 3）SMM 报道印尼林业工作组披露了多家企业违规占用林地，面临的潜在罚款约 80.2 万亿印尼盾，部 分受影响的矿山正与政府部门进行积极协商以解决这些处罚，最终的罚款金额可能会低于最初估算的 80.2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 135,190 | -4,420 | 3,350 | -4,810 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 铂：受白银走强提振 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 523. 80 | | -3.87% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 525. 05 | | -2.96% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2171. 40 | | 4. 10% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2151.50 | | 3.44% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 416. 80 | | -3.08% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货铝金 | 395. 00 | | -1.50% | | | | 纽约锂主连(前日) | 1.736.10 | | 2. 36% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 1.765.00 | | 5.15% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | ...

2026 年 02 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：地缘扰动油价上涨，基本面逻辑延续 节前 豆油：美豆平稳运行，豆油区间反弹 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.96% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 8,698 | | / | / | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,054 | -0.35% | / | / | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,038 | -0.10% | / | / | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,084 | -0.15% | 4,114 | 0.76% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 59.85 | 0.93% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 297,379 | -31236 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 纸浆：震荡运行 20260224 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.260 | 5, 238 | +22 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | - | 5, 254 | | | | | 成交量(手) | 164. 325 | 152. 334 | +11.991 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 269.664 | 280.912 | -11.248 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 154. 612 | 151, 415 | +3. 197 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -18.079 | -17.850 | -229 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | -10 | 12 | -22 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -680 | -658 | -22 | | | 月差 | SP03-SP ...

2026 年 02 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 资料来源：SMM，百川盈孚，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 当地时间 1 月 28 日上午，中国平煤神马集团、隆基绿能公司与赞比亚政府在赞比亚总统府正式签署可 再生能源合作谅解备忘录，拟在未来三年共同投资建设 1000 兆瓦太阳能发电项目。赞比亚总统哈凯恩德·希 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,395 | 60 | -105 | -360 | | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 208,055 | 34,931 | -127,364 | -37,881 | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2026 年 2 月 24 日 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 | 航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 152,640 | 3,220 | 19,720 | 4,440 | -9,300 | 65,700 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 300,191 | -4,607 | -286,515 | -252,477 | -288,828 | 170,287 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 342,226 | -11 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 生猪：假期现货不及预期 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12480 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11350 | | 500 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11860 | | 200 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 10740 | | -155 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11500 | | -40 | | | 货 | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12220 | | -10 | | | 期 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 元/吨 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 CY2605 | 元/吨 | 14,740 20,530 | -0.34% -0.61% | - - | - - | | | ICE美棉5 | 美分/磅 | 65.22 | -0.50% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 308,077 | -9,834 | 1,007,658 | -27,068 | | | CY2605 | 手 | 0 | -1,999 | 0 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 11,001 | 112 | 1,072 | -84 | | | 棉纱 | 张 | 0 | 0 | 38 | ...