1. Report Date - The report was released on February 24, 2026 [1] 2. Analysts - Liu Yuxuan, Investment Consulting Practitioner Qualification Number: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com [2] - Tang Wenhao (Contact), Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03152608, Email: tangwenhao@gtht.com [2] 3. Fundamental Data of Tin Futures - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 365,400, with a daily decline of 7.05% [2] - The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk yesterday was 47,370, with a daily increase of 1.35% [2] - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 180,497, an increase of 2,643 compared with the previous day; the position was 24,005, a decrease of 4,255 compared with the previous day [2] - The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk yesterday was 266, an increase of 18 compared with the previous day; the position was 21,997, a decrease of 271 compared with the previous day [2] - The inventory of LME Tin was 7,660, an increase of 15 compared with the previous day; the cancelled - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared with the previous day [2] Spot and Price Difference - The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 378,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 378,100 yesterday, a decrease of 15,800 compared with the previous day [2] - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 64 yesterday, an increase of 53 compared with the previous day [2] - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 165,620 yesterday, unchanged from the previous day [2] - The spread between the spot and the main futures contract was - 13,220 yesterday, a decrease of 12,420 compared with the previous day [2] Key Industry Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 364,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 368,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 251,250 yesterday, a decrease of 8,000 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 60A solder bar was 240,250 yesterday, a decrease of 8,000 compared with the previous day [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 means most bearish, and 2 means most bullish [3] 5. Macro and Industry News - Trump said countries that play tricks will face higher tariffs [4] - Due to US tariff risks, the EU plans to suspend the approval of the US - EU trade agreement [4] - German Chancellor Merz will pay an official visit to China from February 25 to 26 [4] - Fed Governor Waller: CEOs say AI will lead to massive layoffs [4]

期 货 研 究 来源：CCF，同花顺 iFinD，S&P Global，国泰君安期货研究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 对二甲苯：成本支撑，趋势仍偏强 PTA：成本支撑，趋势仍偏强 MEG：区间操作 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7236 | 5204 | 3678 | 6628 | 460.7 | | 涨跌 | -76 | -16 | -45 | 6 | -16.1 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.04% | -0.31% | -1.21% | 0.09% | -3.38% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 22 | 32 | -118 | -78 | 1.3 | | 前日收盘价 | 26 | 22 | -107 | -68 | -0.3 | | 涨跌 | -4 | 10 | - ...

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：不确定性增强，价格震荡 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：区间震荡 | 5 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 7 | | 锡：关注关税影响 | 8 | | 铝：节后风偏偏强 | 9 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 9 | | 铂：受白银走强提振 | 11 | | 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 | 11 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | 15 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 | 17 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | ...

报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：①假期间海外市场表现来看，美股表现相对偏强，尤以此前下跌的科技指数反 弹更为明显。日韩等市场当中韩国股市持续创高。整体上，外盘表现平稳，略有上涨。中国香港股市在假 期间短暂交易，先涨后跌，略有回落。核心拖累还是在于以恒生科技为首的国内平台型企业的下跌。②从 后期展望来看，首先，考虑到假期间全球地缘事件及金融市场整体平稳，未出现明显超预期黑天鹅事件冲 击，对风险偏好有正向积极影响，有利于节后股市的开门红。③其次，从驱动来看，外部方面，假期间美 国关税事件出现新的变化。包括美国大法官对此前特朗普关税的违宪认定，以及特朗普重新宣布施加先 10%、后 15%关税的消息。虽然关税本身理论上对行情会有扰动，但自 2025 年以来，市场对于关税问题已 "身经百战"，尤其是形成 TACO 交易预期，因此关税问题不会对整体股市构成大扰动。④国内方面，主要 变化是假期出行、电影票房和春晚呈现的中国机器人产业快速崛起。尤其是后者，我们认为短期将掀起新 一轮 A 股机器人板块的交易热情，提振风险偏好，成为带动市场支撑的重要力量，对指数有望带来科技风 格的强势。⑤后期，临近两会召开，预计两会政策预期在 ...

| 棕榈油：地缘扰动油价上涨，基本面逻辑延续节前 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆平稳运行，豆油区间反弹 | 2 | | 豆粕：春节美豆变化不大，关注美国关税政策 | 4 | | 豆一：关注市场情绪，或稳中偏强 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：预计小幅高开20260224 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：假期现货不及预期 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 【基本面跟踪】 棕榈油：地缘扰动油价上涨，基本面逻辑延续 节前 豆油：美豆平稳运行，豆油区间反弹 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 油脂基本面数据 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 同期减少 23.82%，出油率环比上月同期增长 0.3%，产量环比上月同期减少 22.24% | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated February 24, 2026, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: Speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel remains, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradictions in nickel ore [2]. - Stainless steel: The cost - support center has moved up, but off - season inventory accumulation restricts its elasticity [2]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand are tight, and the futures price has bottom support [2]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of silicon wafers has declined [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel futures was 135,190, down 4,420 from the previous day; the closing price of stainless - steel futures was 13,860, down 110 from the previous day. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also changed to varying degrees [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ores, and some mines are facing potential fines. There are also issues such as monopoly in port logistics in the IMIP park, and some overseas nickel mines plan to restart operations [4][5][6]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 152,640, up 3,220 from the previous day. Data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of upstream and downstream products in the lithium - salt industry chain also showed corresponding changes [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Samsung SDI has made a breakthrough in lithium - metal batteries, and the construction project of Zijin Mining's solid - state battery lithium - new material has started [12][13]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,395 yuan/ton, up 60 from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 49,305 yuan/ton, up 290 from the previous day. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, and profits of related products, and the price of silicon wafers decreased [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China Pingmei Shenma Group, Longi Green Energy, and the Zambian government signed a cooperation memorandum for a 1000 - megawatt solar - power project [15][17]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17].

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 24 日 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -16.0 | -2.10% | | | I2605 | | 746.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：春节美豆变化不大，关注美国关税政策 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） 4674 | | +98（+2.14%） | na na | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） 2800 | | +18（+0.65%） | na na | | | CBOT大豆05（美分/蒲） 1150.25 | | -3.5（-0.30%） | 注： 国内豆类为2月13日下午收盘价， 夜盘 | | | CBOT豆粕05（美元/短吨） 312.2 | | -2.0（-0.64%） | 休市。美豆类收盘价为2月23日收盘价。 | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | （节前2月14日报价） | | | 山东 （元/吨） 日照： | 3070～3090； | 青岛： | 3090～3100； 烟台： 3080～3120； | | 现 货 | 华东 （元/吨） 张家港、 | 泰州、 | 南通、镇江： | 3050～3060； 南京、 宁波 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | 期货 | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5516 | -22 | 7,655 | 19,566 | | | 硅铁2605 | 5492 | -8 | 140,909 | 200,355 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5728 | -34 | 6,262 | 24,693 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5770 | -30 | 156,434 | 393,485 | | | 项目 | | 价格 | 较前一交易日 | 单位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 530 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 24 日 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE：节中地缘扰动，成本支撑偏强震荡 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6644 | -1.34% | 370693 | -17121 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -144 | | -184 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -65 | | -47 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6500 | | 6550 | | | | 华东 | 6550 | | 6650 | | | | 华南 | 6600 | | 6650 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货节前回调，上游前期库存转移，企业报价小幅下调，代理开单尚可。裕龙石化复产 ...