| | | | | 期指：或呈现震荡格局 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4691.97 | ↓0.51 | | 5715.6 | | | | | | IF2511 | 4682.4 | ↓0.37 | -9.57 | 350.9 | 24886 | ↓1366 | 41097 | ↓630 | | IF2512 | 4669.6 | ↓0.33 | -22.37 | 1019 | 72481 | ↑1407 | 155110 | ↓2675 | | IF2603 | 4640.2 | ↓0.33 | -51.77 | 171.5 | 12271 | ↓228 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, suggesting a "moderately strong" outlook [4]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of high - level spot bidding and is expected to run strongly [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 80,800, with a change of - 320 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 64,993, down 4,495 from T - 1, and the open interest was 36,653, a decrease of 12,932 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 81,640, down 260 from T - 1. The trading volume was 729,307, an increase of 214,852 from T - 1, and the open interest was 488,803, up 5,325 from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 27,335, a decrease of 404 from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2511 was - 2,300, and that of spot - 2601 was - 3,140. The basis of 2511 - 2601 was - 840 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 925, up 19 from T - 1. The price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,065, up 75 from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500, up 1,950 from T - 1. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 76,300, up 2,000 from T - 1 [1]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 78,553 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,958 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500 yuan/ton, up 1,950 yuan/ton from the previous workday, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 76,300 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Automobile Industry**: Chery Automobile announced a purchase tax subsidy plan, and currently, 10 brands have announced similar plans [2][4]. - **Mining Rights**: A subsidiary of Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd. obtained a 30 - year mining license for the Hunan Jijiaoshan lithium mine, with an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][5] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to show strong oscillatory trends driven by macro sentiment [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are predicted to have wide-range oscillations [2][11] - Coke is expected to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][14] - Coking coal is supported by fundamentals and is likely to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][15] - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 792.5 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The previous day's position was 548,944 lots, a decrease of 9,902 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) increased by 6.0 yuan, PB fines (61.5%) by 4.0 yuan, and the price of Jinbuba (61%) decreased by 4.0 yuan. The basis of (12601, against Super Special) decreased by 6.0 yuan, and the basis of (12601, against Jinbuba) decreased by 10.3 yuan [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,091 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.49%. For hot-rolled coil HC2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,305 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.85%. Among spot prices, the prices of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 10 - 20 yuan. The basis of (RB2601) increased by 19 yuan, and the basis of (HC2601) increased by 4 yuan [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the suggestions on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development were released, which mentioned promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry. On October 23, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of rebar decreased by 18.94 tons, hot-rolled coil by 4.27 tons. In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [7][9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5,564 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. Among spot prices, the price of manganese ore increased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. The spot-futures price difference of ferrosilicon was -344 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions was 5,100 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, and the southern quotation was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. In October, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Chongqing was 37.5%, a decrease of 6.25% compared to September, and the output was expected to be 0.9 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons compared to September [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 1.2%, and the closing price of coke J2601 was 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. Among spot prices, the price of Jinquan Mongolian 5 coking coal increased by 25 yuan, and the price of Shanxi quasi-primary coke delivered to the factory increased by 50 yuan. The basis of JM2601 in Shanxi decreased by 15.0 yuan, and the basis of J2601 in Shanxi quasi-primary delivered to the factory increased by 28.0 yuan [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price decreased by 4.2%, the trading volume decreased by 9.2%, and the position decreased by 49.1%. For the 2601 contract, the closing price decreased by 5.1%, the trading volume increased by 415.9%, and the position decreased by 11.7%. Among spot prices, most of the prices of various types of logs remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight decreases [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 29 日 对二甲苯：高位震荡市 PTA：油价回调，估值回落 MEG：短期震荡市 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6618 | 4614 | 4069 | 6250 | 462.7 | | 涨跌 | -8 | -2 | -40 | 8 | -6.2 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.12% | -0.04% | -0.97% | 0.13% | -1.32% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -14 | -62 | -83 | -28 | -3.3 | | 前日收盘价 | -26 | -60 | -83 | -30 | -3.4 | | 涨跌 | 12 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 0.1 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华 ...

2025 年 10 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 原油：暂时空单持有，关注东北亚供应紧张对 SC 支撑 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI12 月原油期货收跌 1.16 美元/桶，跌幅 1.89%，报 60.15 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 1.22 美元/桶，跌幅 1.86%，报 64.40 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 8.30 元/桶，跌幅 1.78%， 报 458.10 元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | | | | 套利状 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参考基 | 炼油配置 | 套利原油 | 态与价 | 关键说明 | | 准原油 | | | 值 (美元 /桶) | | | | | 阿拉伯超轻质 | -5.92 | 相对于美国本土轻质原油无套利 优势。 | | | 裂化 (FCC & | 阿拉伯轻质 | -7.01 | 套利窗口关闭，价差更大。 | | WTI MEH | HCU) | 安哥拉 Nemba | -5.42 | 无套利优势。 | | | ...

金 融 衍 生 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 28 日 股票股指期权：隐波持稳，可考虑卖出宽跨式 策略。 张雪慧 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015363 zhangxuehui022447@gtjas.com 【正文】 表 1：期权市场数据统计 | 标的市场统计 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 成交量(亿 | 成交变化 | 当月 | 当月基差 | 次月 | 次月基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 手) | (亿手) | 合成期货 | | 合成期货 | | | 上证50指数 | 3050.42 | -19.11 | 54.63 | -15.78 | 3054.60 | 4.18 | 3054.80 | 4.38 | | 沪深300指数 | 4691.97 | -24.05 | 220.91 | -41.29 | 4686.20 | -5.77 | 4677.87 | -14.11 | | 中证1000指数 | 7479.22 | -16.16 | 251.80 | -13.54 | 7414.80 | -64.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Rebound from the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and spot market premiums, processing fees, and enterprise profitability [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,360 yuan, up 135 yuan from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was not provided. The LME注销仓单占比 was 13.77%, down 0.50% [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,829 yuan, up 19 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 278,561 lots, and the open interest was 372,484 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,715 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 6,715 lots, and the open interest was 6,366 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,107.80 yuan, up 65.40 yuan from the previous trading day. The aluminum ingot social inventory was 61.60 million tons, up 0.90 million tons [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,914 yuan, down 7 yuan from the previous trading day. The alumina Lianyungang CIF price was 344 US dollars per ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The Baotai ADC12 price was 20,700 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day. The three - place inventory totaled 48,375 tons, down 237 tons [1]. Other Related Products - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,830 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day [1].

短期震荡 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com la 品 研 2025 年 10月 28 日 资料来源:同花顺,卓创,国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 苯乙烯趋势强度：0 注:趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下:弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2表 示最看空，2表示最看多。 【现货消息】 空单止盈。原油价格快速低位反弹带动化工估值向上修复,前两周我们也提示过空单止盈。10月在海 外制裁影响之下，国内部分主营炼厂有降负预期，预计纯苯单月产量损失 2-4 万吨（根据届时实际降负情 况来决定)。10 月纯苯、苯乙烯的港口累库预期均转为去库预期。阶段性供需平衡,市场交易成本矛盾为 主。苯乙烯目前整体仍然比纯苯更弱,下游 3s 明显进入负反馈阶段,前期终端圈货陆续开始止损。终端 下游需求目前仍未见转好，重点关注中美谈判之后，贸易战缓和是否带来边际需求增量。短期绝对价格震 荡为主。 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on October 28, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures [2]. - It also analyzes the performance of various futures on October 27, 2025, and gives the expected trend and price range of the main continuous contracts in October 2025 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strong and volatile on October 28, 2025. For example, IF2512 has resistance at 4715 and 4730 points, and support at 4684 and 4668 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2512 and thirty - year TL2512 are likely to have wide - range fluctuations on October 28, 2025 [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2512 will be weak and have wide - range fluctuations, while silver futures AG2512 will be weak and volatile on October 28, 2025 [2][3]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. have different trends. For example, copper futures CU2512 will have wide - range fluctuations, and aluminum futures AL2512 will be weak and volatile on October 28, 2025 [3]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, PVC, etc. will be weak and volatile on October 28, 2025 [1][6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Palm oil will be weak and volatile, while soybean meal will be strong and volatile on October 28, 2025 [1][6][7]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - Various domestic and international macro - events are reported, such as government meetings, policy announcements, and economic data releases. For example, the State Council leaders' participation in important meetings, central bank's monetary policy operations, and national economic data like industrial enterprise profits and social logistics costs [8][9][10]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - On October 27, 2025, international precious metals futures generally declined, and the prices of some base metals and energy futures had different changes. For example, COMEX gold futures fell 3.40%, and COMEX silver futures fell 3.61% [12]. - Some industry - related news is also reported, such as LBMA considering changing the frequency of silver inventory announcements and OPEC +'s plan to increase crude oil production [13]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, various stock index futures showed an upward trend, with support from moving averages. For example, IF2512 rose 1.24% (1.07% based on the closing price) [14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The central bank conducted 3373 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1483 billion yuan [36]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2512 had a slight decline on October 27, 2025, while silver futures AG2512 had a slight increase [41][48]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, etc. showed an upward trend on October 27, 2025, with support from moving averages [52][57]. - **Other Futures**: Other futures such as polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, etc. also had different trends on October 27, 2025 [69][73].

资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，隆众资讯，CCF，国泰君安期货 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 所 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6228 | 6108 | 120 | PF11-12 | -14 | -32 | 18 | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6242 | 6140 | 102 | PF12-01 | -30 | -48 | 18 | | | 短纤2601 | 6272 | ୧188 | 84 | PF主力基差 | 93 | 180 | -87 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 151701 | 216025 | -64324 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 335 | 6. 320 | 15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 205119 ...