2025年10月31日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 31 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期暂获支撑，警惕二次下探 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期暂获支撑，警惕二次下探 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆反弹，豆棕做扩维持 | 2 | | 豆粕：震荡，等待中加元首会晤 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏弱 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：新棉成本上移支撑棉花期价 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：产能逻辑重新计价 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 1. 据外媒报道，马来西亚种植与原产业部（MPIC）称，致力于强化沙巴棕榈油下游产业开发，尤其 在生物柴油生产领域，以提升国家农产品部门的附加值。数据显示，沙巴作为马来西亚最大毛棕榈油产 区，2024 年产量达 427 万吨。该部在国会下议院门户网站发布的书面答复中指出，此产量占马来西亚全国 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 豆油：美豆 ...

2025 年 10 月 31 日 对二甲苯：高位震荡市 PTA：油价回调，估值回落 MEG：短期震荡市 期 货 研 究 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6588 | 4570 | 4032 | 6204 | 458.9 | | 涨跌 | -64 | -66 | -68 | -64 | -3.7 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.96% | -1.42% | -1.66% | -1.02% | -0.80% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -12 | -60 | -83 | -34 | -4.1 | | 前日收盘价 | -8 | -52 | -75 | -30 | -4.7 | | 涨跌 | -4 | -8 | -8 | -4 | 0.6 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report is a daily data briefing on non - ferrous metals and precious metals, presenting the latest prices, price differences, inventory, and import - export profit and loss data of various metals on October 30, 2025, compared with previous trading days, weeks, and months [1]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Gold (AU) - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai gold futures (main and near - month contracts), COMEX gold futures (main and near - month contracts), London gold spot, and Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold spot showed different changes on October 30, 2025, compared with previous periods. For example, the Shanghai gold main - contract closing price was 1.28 yuan/gram on October 30, while it was 52.16 yuan/gram on the previous trading day [1]. - **Basis**: The domestic basis (gold T + D - main contract) and overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) also had fluctuations [1]. Silver (AG) - **Prices**: Similar to gold, the closing prices of Shanghai silver futures, COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, and SGE silver spot changed. For instance, the Shanghai silver main - contract closing price was 11253 yuan/kilogram on October 30, with a decrease of 214 yuan/kilogram compared to the previous month [1]. - **Basis**: The domestic basis (AG(T + D) - main contract) and overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) had their own trends [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai copper (CU) and international copper (BC) futures (main and continuous contracts), LME copper 3M, and COMEX copper main - contract all showed changes. The Shanghai copper main - contract closing price decreased by 750 yuan/ton on October 30 compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper also changed. For example, the LME copper warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 9625 tons compared to the previous week [1]. - **Import - export and Spreads**: The copper spot and 3M import - export profit and loss, and the spreads between different contracts and spot prices (such as month - to - month spreads, spot premiums) had different values [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai aluminum (AL) and alumina (AO) futures (main and continuous contracts), LME aluminum 3M, and COMEX aluminum main - contract changed. The Shanghai aluminum main - contract closing price was 21245 yuan/ton on October 30 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, LME aluminum, and COMEX aluminum had their own trends. The LME aluminum warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 2900 tons compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Profit and Spreads**: The profit of alumina plants and electrolytic aluminum plants, and the spreads between different contracts and spot prices (such as month - to - month spreads, regional spot premiums) were presented [1]. Zinc (ZN) - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai zinc (ZN) futures (main and continuous contracts) and LME zinc 3M changed. The Shanghai zinc main - contract closing price was 22365 yuan/ton on October 30 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc changed. The LME zinc warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 43800 tons compared to the previous week [1]. - **Import - export and Profit**: The import - export profit and loss of refined zinc and the smelting profit of zinc plants were provided [1]. Lead (PB) - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai lead (PB) futures (main and continuous contracts) and LME lead 3M changed. The Shanghai lead main - contract closing price was 17350 yuan/ton on October 30 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead and LME lead changed. The LME lead warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 219550 tons compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Profit and Spreads**: The smelting profit of recycled lead plants and the spreads between different contracts and spot prices were shown [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel (NI) and stainless steel (SS) futures (main and continuous contracts), LME nickel 3M, and the spot prices of related products changed. The Shanghai nickel main - contract closing price was 120980 yuan/ton on October 30 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel, stainless steel, LME nickel changed. The LME nickel warehouse - receipt inventory was 251706 tons on October 30 [1]. - **Import - export and Spreads**: The import - export profit and loss of refined nickel, and the spreads between different products (such as nickel plate - nickel iron, nickel plate - sulfuric acid nickel) were presented [1]. Tin (SN) - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai tin (SN) futures (main and continuous contracts) and LME tin 3M changed. The Shanghai tin main - contract closing price decreased by 3120 yuan/ton on October 30 compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai tin and LME tin changed. The Shanghai tin warehouse - receipt inventory was 5732 tons on October 30 [1]. - **Import - export and Processing Fees**: The import - export profit and loss of refined tin and the tin ore processing fees were provided [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybeans is "oscillation" [1] Core View - On October 29, 2025, most contracts in the CBOT soybean market closed lower, with only the November contract slightly up, as China's first purchase of US autumn soybeans failed to boost traders' confidence. Traders are closely watching whether China will make more purchases or commit to future agreements ahead of the Sino - US leaders' summit. China may need 5 - 10 million tons of soybeans to fill the supply gap before receiving Brazil's new - season soybeans next year [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE Bean No. 1 2601 closed at 4113 yuan/ton during the day session (+21, +0.51%) and 4107 yuan/ton at night (-9, -0.22%); DCE Soybean Meal 2601 closed at 2969 yuan/ton during the day session (+3, +0.10%) and 2975 yuan/ton at night (+1, +0.03%); CBOT Soybean 01 was at 1093.25 cents/bushel (-0.25, -0.02%); CBOT Soybean Meal 12 was at 308.7 dollars/short ton (+2.2, +0.72%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, soybean meal (43%) was 2970 - 3040 yuan/ton, with different basis levels for different periods; in East China, it was 2930 - 3040 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 2980 - 3060 yuan/ton, and basis levels also varied by region and period [1] - **Industrial Data**: The previous trading day's (week's) soybean meal trading volume was 5.95 million tons/day (compared to 6.52 million tons/day two days ago), and the inventory was 100.44 million tons/week (compared to 96.31 million tons/week two weeks ago) [1] Macro and Industry News - China's state - owned COFCO bought three ships of US soybeans. Traders are waiting to see if China will make more purchases or reach future agreements ahead of the Sino - US leaders' summit. China may need 5 - 10 million tons of soybeans to fill the supply gap before next year's Brazilian new - season soybeans arrive [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No. 1 is 0, indicating a neutral state, mainly referring to the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Slight rebound [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Group 2: Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interest, spreads, inventory, and corporate profits [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,295, up 155 from T - 1; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,870, down 24 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,879, up 62 from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,690, up 115 from T - 1 [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 616,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1; the electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 5,126.94, up 12.40 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,906, down 1 from T - 1; the profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 120, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 28, down 1 from T - 1; the total inventory of three places was 48,465, up 190 from T - 1 [1]. Other Information - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December; South Korea promised to invest $350 billion in the US to get tariff preferences [3]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 0; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [3]

2025 年 10月 30 日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 季先飞 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 88. 710 | 1 99% | 89130 >> | 0. 47% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 11.090 | 0. 55% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期货 | 347. 234 沪铜指数 | -49. 131 | 617. 144 | 22. 023 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 29.130 | 7. 363 | 328.000 | 4.765 | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动。 | 注销仓单比 | · 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 35.745 | -101 | | | | | 伦铜 135. 350 | 775 | 10. 84% | 2. 54% | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 | ...

2025 年 10 月 30 日 燃料油：环比前期转弱，波动继续放大 低硫燃料油：持续强于高硫，外盘现货高低硫 价差再次反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2. 968 | -0. 07% | | 2.968 | -1.30% | | | | FU2512 | 元/晓 | 2.827 | -1. 30% | | 2,825 | -1.15% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,231 | 0. 00% | | 3,231 | -1.58% | | | | LU2512 | 元/吨 | 3.254 | -1.58% | | 3.246 | -0.98% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU25 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 30 日 焦炭：偏强震荡 焦煤：宏观与板块主题共振，偏强震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2601 | 1302 | ୧୦ | 4. 8% | | 期货价格 | | J2601 | 1801 | 53.5 | 3.1% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2601 | 1073974 | 706691 | 56327 | | | | J2601 | 23477 | 40489 | 756 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1600 | 1 600 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1382 | 1332 | 50 | | | | 吕梁低疏主焦 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to show a strong and volatile trend driven by macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Information**: For rebar contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan or 1.00%, with a trading volume of 1,239,602 lots, a position of 1,894,007 lots, and a position change of - 36,350 lots. For hot - rolled coil contract HC2601, the closing price was 3,345 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.21%, with a trading volume of 573,794 lots, a position of 1,461,059 lots, and a position change of - 12,738 lots [1]. - **Spot Price Information**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 20 yuan, 10 yuan, 30 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively. Hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 20 yuan, 20 yuan, 20 yuan, and 30 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet rose by 20 yuan to 3000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Information**: The basis of RB2601 decreased by 22 yuan to 107 yuan, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 20 yuan to 15 yuan. The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 increased by 10 yuan to - 53 yuan, and the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 increased by 2 yuan to 13 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Policy News**: Five - department offices including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan", supporting eligible commercial real estate projects to issue real estate investment trust funds (REITs). The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the high - quality development of the steel industry, such as promoting the quality improvement of key industries and enhancing the independent controllability of the industrial chain [2][3]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: In the week of October 23, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 8.37 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.94 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.27 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 27.41 tons [3]. - **Output Data**: In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The daily output was 244.97 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. From January to September, the cumulative production of crude steel was 746 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [3]. - **Inventory Data**: In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 121 million tons or 8.2% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue to decline, while silver is expected to rebound with fluctuations. Copper's price increase is restricted by the hawkish outlook on interest rate cuts. Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound. Lead's price is supported by the continuous decrease in inventory. Tin's performance is subject to macro - economic impacts. Aluminum is expected to trade within a range, alumina is expected to have a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will fluctuate narrowly due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downward potential but lacks upward driving force [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 910.88 with a daily increase of 1.05%, and the night - session closing price was 910.92 with a night - session increase of 0.69%. Comex Gold 2512 decreased by 0.67% yesterday. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 3, Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before yesterday) decreased by 232,686, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 801 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The leaders of China and the United States will meet in Busan, South Korea on Thursday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, ended balance - sheet reduction in December, and Powell dampened the market's expectation of an interest rate cut at the end of the year [4][7]. Silver - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 11338 with a daily increase of 2.54%, and the night - session closing price was 11265.00 with a night - session increase of 0.64%. Comex Silver 2512 increased by 0.29% yesterday. The trend strength is - 1 [4]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: SLV Silver ETF's holdings remained unchanged, Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before yesterday) decreased by 4,494,628, and Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 3599 [4]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 88,710 with a daily increase of 1.99%, and the night - session closing price was 89130 with a night - session increase of 0.47%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.55%. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 101, and LME copper inventory increased by 775. The注销仓单 ratio of LME copper increased by 2.54% [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Despite the Fed's interest rate cut and end of QT, Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut reduced the market's probability of a December rate cut from 95% to 65%. Antofagasta's Q3 copper production increased by 1% quarter - on - quarter, and Anglo American's Q3 copper production was higher than the same period last year, but the cumulative production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% year - on - year. Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22430 with a 0.54% increase, while the LME zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.07%. The trend strength is 0 [11]. - **News**: The leaders of China and the United States will meet, which is considered important for stabilizing Sino - US relations [11]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract remained unchanged at 17355, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.07%. The trend strength is 0 [14]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 100, and LME lead inventory decreased by 4800 [14]. - **News**: The Fed's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut reduced the market's probability of a December rate cut from 95% to 65%, and the leaders of China and the United States will meet [15]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 286,720 with a 1.25% increase, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.29%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.61%. The trend strength is 0 [17]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 73, and LME tin inventory increased by 130 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, including Sino - US leader meeting, Fed's interest rate decision, etc. [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: Aluminum is expected to trade within a range, alumina is expected to have a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [21][23]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged at 61.60 million tons, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed continued to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December. South Korea and the United States reached a trade agreement, with South Korea promising to invest $350 billion in the United States [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: Nickel prices will fluctuate narrowly due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downward potential but lacks upward driving force. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [24]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area, expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and issued a new regulation on mining business plans and budgets [24][25].