Report Title - Palm Oil: Temporary Support in the Short Term, Beware of a Second Dip; Soybean Oil: Rebound in US Soybeans, Monitor the Results of China-US Negotiations [1] Report Core View - Palm oil has obtained temporary support in the short term, but there is a risk of a second decline; soybean oil has rebounded due to the rise of US soybeans, and the results of China-US negotiations need to be focused on [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Key Points by Section Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract during the day session was 8,842 yuan/ton, down 1.29%, and at night session it was 8,826 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract during the day session was 8,132 yuan/ton, down 0.61%, and at night session it was 8,146 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract during the day session was 9,525 yuan/ton, down 2.11%, and at night session it was 9,524 yuan/ton, down 0.01%. The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract during the day session was 4,252 ringgit/ton, down 1.46%, and at night session it was 4,286 ringgit/ton, up 0.80%. The closing price of the CBOT soybean oil main contract was 50.11 cents/pound, down 0.30% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract was 727,306 lots, an increase of 195,613 lots, and the open interest was 388,487 lots, an increase of 20,397 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main contract was 438,857 lots, an increase of 181,788 lots, and the open interest was 493,147 lots, an increase of 4,050 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil main contract was 356,588 lots, an increase of 219,971 lots, and the open interest was 233,065 lots, a decrease of 7,182 lots [2] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of fourth-grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil (continuous contract) was 1,075 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was -92 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 318 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 375 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 683 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: 772 yuan/ton); the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was -710 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: -776 yuan/ton); the 1-5 price spread of palm oil was -48 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: -22 yuan/ton); the 1-5 price spread of soybean oil was 172 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: 180 yuan/ton); the 1-5 price spread of rapeseed oil was 349 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: 387 yuan/ton) [2] Macro and Industry News - **Pakistan's Palm Oil Imports**: Pakistan is considering increasing the import quota of Indonesian palm oil. In September 2025, Pakistan's palm oil import value reached 481 million US dollars, a significant increase from 251 million US dollars in the same period last year. The import volume was 343,162 tons, a significant increase from 266,218 tons in the same period in 2024, indicating strong demand [3] - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year (2025/26) is expected to be 60-160 tons; the net increase in US soybean meal export sales is expected to be 5-50 tons; the net increase in US soybean oil export sales is expected to be 0.5-2.5 tons [5] - **Brazil's Soybean Outlook**: The Netherlands Cooperative Bank expects that Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season will reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year. The soybean output is expected to be 177 million tons, a 3% increase. The export volume is expected to be 111 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. The soybean crushing volume is expected to reach 60 million tons, a record high (58 million tons in the 2024/25 season) [5] - **Soybean Planting in Brazil's Paraná State**: From October 21-27, 2025, due to good soil moisture and ideal planting conditions, soybean sowing in Paraná State continued to progress rapidly, with balanced progress in various regions. The crop growth is good, and the overall outlook for the 2025/26 season is positive [6] - **Brazil's Soybean Exports in October**: In the first four weeks of October 2025, Brazil exported 5,415,164.62 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 300,842.48 tons, a 41% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 214,090.30 tons in October last year. The total export volume in October last year was 4,709,986.65 tons [6] - **Argentina's Labor Dispute**: The Argentine Oilseed Workers' Union (SOEA) may resume strikes next week as they are still far from reaching a salary agreement with employers [6] - **Argentine Farmers' Soybean Sales**: As of the week ending October 22, 2025, Argentine farmers sold 1.115 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 22.3379 million tons. They also sold 38,100 tons of 2025/26 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 214,500 tons. The total soybean sales volume for all seasons in that week was 1.1927 million tons, with a cumulative sales volume of 63.1325 million tons. The cumulative registered export sales volume of 2024/25 season soybeans was 4.818 million tons, and that of 2025/26 season soybeans was 0 tons [7] - **Paraguay's Soybean Production Forecast**: Paraguay's soybean output in the 2025/26 season is initially estimated to be 10.8 million tons (estimated range: 8.7-12.6 million tons), a 5.8% increase from the previous year, mainly due to the expected increase in yield per hectare (2.91 tons per hectare, a 6.9% increase from the previous year). Paraguayan farmers are expected to plant 3.71 million hectares of soybeans, a slight decrease of nearly 1% from the previous year and lower than the USDA's forecast of 3.8 million hectares [8] - **India's Soybean and Soybean Meal Situation**: The Indian Soybean Processors' Association (SOPA) expects the soybean carry-over stock in the 2025/26 season (starting from October) to be 466,000 tons, a 47% decrease from 894,000 tons in the same period last year. The carry-over stock of soybean meal is expected to be 68,000 tons, a 49% decrease from 133,000 tons in the same period last year. The soybean meal output in the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease to 8.956 million tons, a 7.34% decrease from 9.666 million tons in the previous year. The export volume is expected to decrease by about 10% to 2.023 million tons, and the feed industry consumption is expected to decrease by about 6% to 6.2 million tons. The domestic food industry's procurement volume remains stable at 800,000 tons throughout the year. The Indian Agricultural Statistics Bureau predicts that the soybean output in the 2025 monsoon season will be 1.05 million tons, a 16% decrease from 1.2581 million tons in the previous year, mainly due to excessive rainfall and diseases [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with -2, -1, 0, 1, 2 representing weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong respectively [11]

资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【趋势强度】 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 2025 年 10 月 30 日 燃料油：环比前期转弱，波动继续放大 低硫燃料油：持续强于高硫，外盘现货高低硫 价差再次反弹 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2. 968 | -0. 07% | | 2.968 | -1.30% | | | | FU2512 | 元/晓 | 2.827 | -1. 30% | | 2,825 | -1.15% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,231 | 0. 00% | | 3,231 | -1.58% | | | | LU2512 | 元/吨 | 3.254 | -1.58% | | 3.246 | -0.98% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The futures index is in a volatile pattern with the "boots" gradually landing [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Periodic Index Data Tracking - On October 29, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF rose 1.2%, IH rose 0.41%, IC rose 2.06%, and IM rose 1.4% [2] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 11,905 lots, IH decreased by 6,016 lots, IC increased by 8,363 lots, and IM decreased by 23,657 lots. In terms of positions, the total position of IF increased by 439 lots, IH decreased by 762 lots, IC increased by 9,663 lots, and IM decreased by 5,250 lots [2][3] 3.2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1; the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with integer values, and the strength is classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [7] 3.3. Important Drivers - Although the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced the end of QT, Powell's hawkish remarks on the prospect of a December interest - rate cut caused the market's probability of a December interest - rate cut to plummet from 95% to 65%. U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, gold, and digital currencies tumbled briefly during the session, while the U.S. dollar rose. Eventually, the Nasdaq closed up supported by NVIDIA, and the Dow closed down [7] - The A - share market performed strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,000 points, hitting a new high in the rebound; the ChiNext Index soared nearly 3%; the North Securities 50 soared more than 8%, hitting the largest daily increase in 9 months. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.7% at 4,016.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.93%, the North Securities 50 rose 8.41%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 1.18%, and the Wind All - A rose 1.16%. The total trading volume of A - shares throughout the day was 2.29 trillion yuan, compared with 2.17 trillion yuan the previous day. The new energy sector exploded, with the energy - storage direction seeing a wave of limit - up stocks. The non - ferrous metals sector strengthened collectively, led by copper and zinc. Computing hardware stocks strengthened again, with many stocks hitting record highs. The quantum technology concept has been strengthening recently, and the Hainan Free Trade concept continued to rise [7] 3.4. Index Futures' Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts vary, such as - 111 for IF2511, 1981 for IF2512, etc.; the short - position changes also vary, like - 135 for IF2511, 1425 for IF2512 [6] - For IH contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are different, such as - 222 for IH2511, - 1952 for IH2512, etc.; the short - position changes also show variations, like - 497 for IH2511, - 1497 for IH2512 [6] - For IC contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are diverse, such as 1560 for IC2511, 4388 for IC2512, etc.; the short - position changes also have differences, like 1462 for IC2511, 4920 for IC2512 [6] - For IM contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are different, such as - 948 for IM2512, - 262 for IM2603, etc.; the short - position changes also vary, like - 585 for IM2512, - 33 for IM2603 [6]

Report Investment Rating - PX: Unilateral oscillating market [1] - PTA: Pay attention to the results of the anti - involution meeting, unilateral is relatively strong [1] - MEG: Cost - supported, short - term trend is relatively strong [1] Core Views - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - bullish view [5] - For PX, go short on PXN at high levels. PX supply and demand both increase. Lock in profits when PXN is above 230 US dollars [5] - For PTA, the anti - involution policy creates supply contraction expectations. The market is in a positive feedback pattern, and PTA processing fees are expected to expand in the short term [5] - For MEG, due to rising coal prices, the cost support is strong, and it is expected to run strongly unilaterally. Consider a calendar spread long position [6] Market Dynamics Summary PX - End - of - day naphtha prices are weak, with November MOPJ currently estimated at 564 US dollars/ton CFR. PX prices rebounded today, with a December Asian spot deal at 820. The current PX valuation is 818 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars from yesterday [3] MEG - A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Fujian has been restarted and is producing, with a subsequent load of around 90%. A 500,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Canada has also restarted [3] Polyester - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally weak today, with an estimated average sales rate of just over 40% by 3:45 pm [3] Price and Spread Data Futures - PX, PTA, MEG, and PF futures prices rose, while SC futures prices fell slightly [2] - The month - spreads of PX, PTA, and MEG increased, while those of PF and SC decreased [2] Spot - PX and naphtha prices rose, MEG prices fell, and PTA prices remained unchanged [2] - PX - naphtha spread, short - fiber processing fee, and bottle - chip processing fee decreased, while PTA processing fee increased [2] Supply and Demand Outlook PX - Supply: Fushun Fushun Petrochemical's 1.4 - million - ton PX plant is gradually restarting, Saudi Satorp's 700,000 - ton plant's maintenance is postponed to November, and PTTG's 540,000 - ton plant will be under maintenance for about 50 days starting at the end of October [5] - Demand: Xin Fengming's new PTA plant has recently started operation [5] PTA - Supply: The anti - involution policy may lead to supply contraction [5] - Demand: Downstream orders are improving, polyester sales are getting better, and polyester load is expected to remain high in the coming months [5] MEG - Supply: Domestic supply is expected to contract marginally as Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce its load in December and Sichuan Zheng Dakai plans to conduct maintenance in November. However, imports are increasing, and port inventories are expected to be high [6] - Demand: Not specifically mentioned in the report

2025年10月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：冶炼累库与镍矿担忧博弈，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：下方想象力有限，向上缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：基差持稳，偏强运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：情绪提振，盘面亦有抬升 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注本周政策端发酵情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,540 | 980 | 160 | 360 | 440 | -260 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,805 | 55 | 95 | 245 | 45 | -115 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 109,262 | -47,034 | 35,411 | 25,501 | 11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 29, Eastern Time, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction plan in December. However, Powell poured cold water on the year - end rate - cut expectation [7]. - The domestic Fourth Plenary Session and the draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" have a positive attitude towards economic growth in the next five years, which is conducive to the stability of macro - expectations. The upcoming meeting between Chinese and US presidents at the APEC meeting and the easing of the geopolitical environment have improved risk appetite [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 29, 2025, and will end balance - sheet reduction in December. Powell said that a December rate cut is not a certainty, and the government shutdown poses challenges due to missing economic data [7]. 3.2 Sector Recommendations by the Director 3.2.1 Index Futures - With the gradual landing of positive factors, the index futures may oscillate and wait for new drivers. Domestic policies and the upcoming Sino - US summit have boosted market sentiment, but the Fed's hawkish remarks led to a decline in US stocks. Future upward movement of the index will depend on new positive news, and there may be oscillations around the 4000 - point mark [9][10]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal - Supported by the tightening upstream fundamentals and the expected third - round price increase of coke, the coking coal spot price is strong. Macro expectations and anti - involution themes also boost the market. However, the shrinking profit of downstream steel mills and the price of thermal coal may limit its upward space [12][14]. 3.2.3 Container Freight Index (European Line) - There is a risk of a pull - back after a surge. The market is optimistic due to Maersk's surcharge announcement and the expectation of the US softening its stance on China's tariffs. Attention should be paid to the impact of port congestion on supply and the support of December's shipping capacity on prices [13][15]. 3.2.4 Live Pigs - In the short - term, the spot price may oscillate and adjust. But from the perspective of the production cycle, the pressure will increase in the future as the profit recovers, and the far - end hedging willingness will increase [16]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold continues to decline, and silver rebounds oscillatingly. The trend intensity of both is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [19][22][24]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - Copper: The hawkish outlook on rate cuts restricts price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [26]. - Zinc: It rebounds slightly, with a trend intensity of 0 [29]. - Lead: The continuous reduction of inventory supports the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [32]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, and the trend intensity is 0 [35]. - Aluminum: It oscillates within a range. Alumina rebounds slightly, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity of all three is 0 [39][41]. - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory and concerns about nickel ore lead to a narrow - range oscillation of nickel prices. Stainless steel has limited downward space but lacks upward drivers. The trend intensity of both is 0 [42]. 3.3.3 Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The basis is stable, and it runs strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [45][47]. - Industrial Silicon: The sentiment is boosted, and the price on the disk rises. The trend intensity is 1 [49][51]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the policy fermentation this week. The trend intensity is 0 [49][51]. - Iron Ore: It oscillates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [52]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Driven by macro - sentiment, the steel prices oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of both is 1 [54][56]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, they oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of both is 0 [58][61]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They oscillate strongly, and the trend intensity of both is 0 [62][64]. - Logs: They oscillate repeatedly [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report doesn't explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings but gives trend intensities for each commodity: - **Positive Trends**: PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, asphalt [2][8][9][10][11][18][25] - **Neutral Trends**: Synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [2][14][16][31][33][35][37][44][45][48][49][51][54][55][57][58][61][63][64][67][68][75][76][78] - **Negative Trends**: Caustic soda [40][41] 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the futures market show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and macro - events. For example, PTA may strengthen due to anti - involution policies and improved downstream demand; MEG may rise because of cost support; while caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations [8][9][40] 3. Summaries According to Commodities PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Trades in a unilateral oscillating market. PXN is recommended to be shorted at high levels. Supply and demand are both increasing, with some plants restarting and others delaying maintenance [8] - **PTA**: Expected to be unilaterally strong. Anti - involution policies may lead to supply contraction. Downstream demand is improving, and processing fees are likely to expand in the short term [8] - **MEG**: Supported by rising coal prices, it is expected to be strong in the short term. Domestic supply may shrink marginally, but port inventory is expected to be high [9] Rubber - Trades in a slightly upward - oscillating manner. Futures prices have increased, and inventory in Qingdao has decreased. Tire production capacity utilization has improved [10][11][13] Synthetic Rubber - Oscillates as cost decreases but the macro - environment is strong. Inventory has decreased, and the price may show a wide - range oscillating pattern in the short term and a downward - centered trend in the medium term [14][15][16] Asphalt - Follows the oscillation of crude oil. Capacity utilization and shipment volume have increased this week [18][25][30] LLDPE - Mainly oscillates. Although the raw material oil price has fallen, downstream demand provides support. Supply pressure may increase later [31][32] PP - Stops falling in the short term and oscillates in the medium term. Downward pressure comes from multiple factors, but short - term rebounds are reasonable due to oil price rebounds and supply cuts [35][36] Caustic Soda - Its valuation is suppressed. Alumina production cut expectations limit its upside, and cost has decreased recently [39][40] Paper Pulp - Oscillates. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and there is a differentiation between financial attributes and fundamentals [44][46][47] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot market of soda ash shows weak and stable oscillations [48][49] Methanol - Oscillates in the short term and its price center may move down in the medium term. It is affected by fundamental supply pressure and macro - events [51][53][54] Urea - Oscillates with a game between fundamental pressure and a strong macro - environment. Inventory has decreased this week, but the short - term fundamental situation is weakening [55][56][57] Benzene, Styrene - Oscillates in the short term. Crude oil price rebounds drive chemical valuation repair, and there is a shift from inventory accumulation to destocking expectations [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. Supply remains high, and demand is tepid [61][63] LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Has limited upward drivers, and cost changes should be monitored [67] - **Propylene**: Oscillates weakly in the short term due to a relatively loose supply - demand situation [68] PVC - Rebounds in the short term but may face pressure later. High - production and high - inventory structures are difficult to change [75] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Weakens compared to the previous period, and price fluctuations continue to widen [78] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Remains stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas spot market rebounds again [78] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Attention should be paid to the risk of a fall after a peak. Futures prices have increased, and freight rates have also risen [80]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on October 30, 2025, covering various agricultural products including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term support, beware of a second decline [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans rebound, pay attention to the results of China - US negotiations [2] - Soybean meal: Range - bound, waiting for the meeting between Chinese and US leaders [2] - Soybean: Range - bound [2] - Corn: Weakly range - bound [2] - Sugar: Strongly range - bound [2] - Cotton: The rising cost of new cotton supports cotton futures prices [2] - Eggs: Maintain adjustment [2] - Hogs: Spot sentiment declines, waiting for confirmation [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] 3. Summaries by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures closed at 8,842 yuan/ton (down 1.29% during the day) and 8,826 yuan/ton (down 0.18% at night). Soybean oil futures closed at 8,132 yuan/ton (down 0.61% during the day) and 8,146 yuan/ton (up 0.17% at night). The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan), and that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan) [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan may increase the import quota of Indonesian palm oil. As of October 23, the estimated net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 season is 60 - 160 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to reach 48.8 million hectares, with an output of 177 million tons [6][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4,113 yuan/ton (+0.51%) during the day and 4,107 yuan/ton (-0.22%) at night. DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,969 yuan/ton (+0.03%) during the day and 2,975 yuan/ton (+0.03%) at night [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, Chinese state - owned enterprises bought three ships of US soybeans. Traders are watching for more Chinese purchases ahead of the China - US leaders' meeting [17][19]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The price of C2601 was 2,116 yuan/ton (-0.09%) during the day and remained unchanged at night. The trading volume of C2601 was 374,280 lots (down 100,431 lots), and the open interest was 925,389 lots (up 13,061 lots) [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price increased slightly [22]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.42 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,730 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,494 yuan/ton [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,620 yuan/ton (+0.41%) during the day and 13,650 yuan/ton (+0.22%) at night. The trading volume of CF2601 was 255,130 lots (up 77,784 lots), and the open interest was 910,968 lots (up 2,065 lots) [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot trading was average, and the ICE cotton futures rose by more than 1% due to optimistic trade prospects [29]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2511 closed at 2,912 yuan/500 kg (up 1.22%), and Egg 2601 closed at 3,368 yuan/500 kg (up 1.91%) [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Not provided Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 12,580 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the futures price of Hog 2601 was 12,160 yuan/ton (down 170 yuan) [34]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses, and the national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, up 3.4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year [36] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK601 closed at 7,822 yuan/ton (up 0.03%). The trading volume of PK601 was 68,448 lots (up 15,637 lots), and the open interest was 175,747 lots (down 3,551 lots) [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the spot market, the supply in most regions is limited, and prices are stable or slightly stronger [38]

2025 年 10 月 30 日 集运指数（欧线）：关注冲高回落风险 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 日涨跌 昨日收盘价 | | 昨日成交 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2510 | 1,871.0 5.08% | | 34,539 31,906 | | 3,006 | 1.08 | 0.90 | | | EC2512 | 1,606.0 3.66% | | 8,665 15,885 | | 1,975 | 0.55 | 0.45 | | | EC2602 | 2.60% 1,194.4 | | 2,935 14,394 | | 115 | 0.20 | 0.16 | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | 183.1 | | EC ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided in the document. 3. Summary by Related Categories Gold (AU) - **Prices**: On October 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract was 901.38 yuan/gram, down 32.76 yuan from the previous trading day; the closing price of the near - month contract was 899.30 yuan/gram, down 93.50 yuan. COMEX gold's main contract closing price was - 3,781.20 dollars/ounce, and the near - month contract was 3,993.40 dollars/ounce. The London gold spot price was 279.77 dollars/ounce [1]. Silver (AG) - **Prices**: On October 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract was 11,049 yuan/kilogram, down 345 yuan from the previous trading day; the near - month contract was - 344 yuan/kilogram. COMEX silver's main contract closing price was - 1.33 dollars/ounce, and the near - month contract was 3,993.40 dollars/ounce. The London silver spot price was 47.37 dollars/ounce [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - **Prices**: On October 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 86,980 yuan/ton, down 1,390 yuan from the previous trading day; the continuous contract was 86,990 yuan/ton. The international copper's main and continuous contracts were both 77,420 yuan/ton. The LME copper 3M closing price was 236.00 dollars/ton, and the COMEX copper main contract was 0.04 dollars/pound [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - **Prices**: On October 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 21,140 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan from the previous trading day; the continuous contract was 21,120 yuan/ton. The alumina's main contract closing price was 2,817 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract was 2,775 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 90.00 dollars/ton, and the COMEX aluminum main contract was 0.00 dollars/ton [1]. Zinc (ZN) - **Prices**: On October 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 220 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract was 22,275 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3M closing price was - 3 dollars/ton [1]. Lead (PB) - **Prices**: On October 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 230 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract was 17,355 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3M closing price was 2,012.50 dollars/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - **Prices**: On October 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was - 620 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract was - 880 yuan/ton. The stainless steel's main contract closing price was 12,750 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract was 12,755 yuan/ton. The LME nickel 3M closing price was - 75 dollars/ton [1]. Tin (SN) - **Prices**: On October 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was - 3,550 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract was - 3,370 yuan/ton. The LME tin 3M closing price was 35,720 dollars/ton [1].