期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 26 日 白糖：涨价情绪蔓延 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 高频信息：截至 1 月 31 日，25 /26 榨季印度食糖产量同比增加 17%。印度批准额外出口 50 万吨，此前 批准 150 万吨出口配额。中国 12 月进口食糖 58 万吨（+19 万吨）。截至 1 月底，25 /26 榨季广西累计产糖 403 万吨（-79 万吨），产糖率 12.05%，同比下降 1.14 个百分点。关注中国糖浆和预拌粉进口政策变化，产 区销售进度。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1170 万吨（前值 1120 万吨），消费量为 1570 万吨 （前值 1590 万吨），进口量为 500 万吨。中国糖业协会数据显示，截至 9 月底，24/25 榨季全国共生产食糖 1116 万吨（+120 万吨），全国累计销售食糖 1048 万吨（+87 万吨），累计销糖率 93.9%（下降 2.6 个百分点）。 中国海关数据显示，截至 12 月底，25/26 榨季中国累计进口食糖 17 ...

2026年02月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：减产兑现，暂持逢低做多思路 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：现货情绪扰动，区间震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美国贸易言论，影响盘面波动 | 4 | | 豆一：中美贸易情绪缓和，盘面或调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：涨价情绪蔓延 | 7 | | 棉花：延续强势20260226 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：盘面提前交易累库，但淡季去库难度大 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026 年 02 月 26 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：减产兑现，暂持逢低做多思路 豆油：现货情绪扰动，区间震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to move upward in an oscillatory manner [2][4] - Attention should be paid to the post - holiday gap - up in silver [2][4] - The sentiment in the copper market has warmed up, and prices are expected to rise [2][9] - An increase in lead inventory restricts price recovery [2][12] - Tin is expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillatory pattern [2][14] - The platinum market may be boosted by news, with positive sentiment [2][21] - Palladium is expected to follow the upward trend [2][21] - Speculative sentiment still exists in Shanghai nickel futures, and continuous attention should be paid to nickel ore contradictions [2][25] - For stainless steel, cost support has shifted upward, but inventory accumulation in the off - season restricts price elasticity [2][25] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1151.06, up 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 1153.90, up 0.65%. The closing price of Comex Gold 2602 was 5183.70, up 0.45%. The spot price of London Gold was 5164.31, up 0.63% [4] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 198,537, an increase of 71,634 from the previous day, and the position was 155,075, a decrease of 2,336 [4] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 105,072 kilograms, with no change from the previous day. The inventory of Comex Gold (in troy ounces, the day before) was 33,701,164, a decrease of 73,343 [4] - **Spread Data**: The spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 was - 5.99, with no change from the previous day. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying December Shanghai Gold and selling June Shanghai Gold decreased by 0.87 to 4.77 [4] 3.2 Silver - **Price Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 23029, up 3.46%, and the night - session closing price was 23365.00, up 4.00%. The closing price of Comex Silver 2602 was 89.860, up 2.43%. The spot price of London Silver was 89.221, up 2.45% [4] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 413,159, an increase of 202,427 from the previous day, and the position was 182,667, an increase of 7,570 [4] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 355,830 kilograms, an increase of 5951 from the previous day. The inventory of Comex Silver (in troy ounces, the day before) was 364,000,164, a decrease of 2,969 [4] - **Spread Data**: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2602 was 841, a decrease of 175 from the previous day. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying December Shanghai Silver and selling June Shanghai Silver decreased by 11.3 to 73.41 [4] 3.3 Copper - **Price Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the main Shanghai Copper contract was 102,890, up 1.36%, and the night - session closing price was 103040, up 0.15%. The closing price of LME Copper 3M was 13,350, up 1.17% [9] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 291,554, an increase of 93,583 from the previous day, and the position was 556,155, a decrease of 7,927. The trading volume of LME Copper 3M was 18,795, a decrease of 6,860, and the position was 321,000, an increase of 4,315 [9] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 287,806, an increase of 10,717 from the previous day. The inventory of LME Copper was 249,650, an increase of 6,475, and the注销仓单 ratio was 5.02%, an increase of 0.52% [9] - **Spread Data**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread was - 85.04, a decrease of 1.44 from the previous day. The spread between the spot and the near - month futures contract was - 180, a decrease of 430 [9] - **News**: In December 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2506 million tons, with consumption of 2.1526 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 98,000 tons. Uganda plans to connect a new railway to Tanzania's railway, which will open a new export channel for minerals such as copper. Hudbay Minerals has received approval to expand its Copper Mountain mine [9][11] 3.4 Lead - **Price Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 16735, up 0.39%. The closing price of LME Lead 3M was 1959.5, up 0.38% [12] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 67705, an increase of 12420 from the previous day. The trading volume of LME Lead was 6359, an increase of 3009. The position of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 71996, an increase of 2284, and the position of LME Lead was 173292, an increase of 3619 [12] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead futures was 59323 tons, an increase of 946 from the previous day. The inventory of LME Lead was 286300 tons, a decrease of 25 [12] - **News**: Investors bet that NVIDIA's strong performance will reignite the enthusiasm for AI trading, and Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven" housing policies [12] 3.5 Tin - **Price Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 416,160, up 7.62%, and the night - session closing price was 423,990, up 5.77%. The closing price of LME Tin 3M was 53,915, up 7.19% [15] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 173,225, an increase of 99,126 from the previous day, and the position was 18,346, a decrease of 2,692. The trading volume of LME Tin 3M was 884, an increase of 160, and the position was 21,849, an increase of 113 [15] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 11,738, a decrease of 43 from the previous day. The inventory of LME Tin was 7,680, an increase of 25, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [15] - **Spread Data**: The spread between SMM 1 tin ingot and the main futures contract was 19,380, an increase of 26,980 from the previous day [15] - **News**: Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Merz, Zimbabwe banned the export of all raw ores and lithium concentrates, and the G20 finance and central bank deputies' meeting was held [15][16][18] 3.6 Platinum and Palladium - **Price Data**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 586.00, up 7.54%. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 457.95, up 6.49% [21] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 11,498 kilograms, an increase of 5,375 from the previous day, and the position was 26,569, an increase of 802. The trading volume of NYMEX Palladium was 18,811 kilograms, a decrease of 2,383, and the position was 42,276, an increase of 29,007 [21] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Platinum was 1 kilogram (no change), and the inventory of NYMEX Platinum (in troy ounces, the day before) was 578,195, with no change [21] - **Spread Data**: The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was - 1.98, an increase of 3.79 from the previous day. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying Shanghai Platinum 2606 and selling 2610 increased by 0.42 to 7.21 [21] - **News**: CME Group suspended metal and natural gas futures and options trading due to a "technical problem", and NVIDIA's Q4 earnings were impressive [23][24] 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 141,250, and the closing price of the main Stainless Steel contract was 14,245 [25] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 221,614, and the trading volume of the main Stainless Steel contract was 173,978 [25] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,070. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) was 14,300 [25] - **News**: The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price formula will be revised, and there were various incidents in Indonesian nickel mines and related industries [25][26][27]

2026年02月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：情绪面发酵，盘面或高开高走 | 4 | | 工业硅：下方空间或不深 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 26 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,250 | 3,300 | 6,060 | 9,410 | -1,810 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 26 日 黄金：震荡上行 白银：关注节后高开 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,151.06 | 0.05% | 1153.90 | 0.65% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,145.07 | -0.16% | 1149.48 | 0.32% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 5183.70 | 0.45% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 5164.31 | 0.63% | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 23029 | 3.46% | 23365.00 | 4.00% | | 格 | 白银T+D | 22131 | 3.35% | 22418 | 2.62% | | 价 | Comex白银2602 | 89.860 | 2.43% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 ...

油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,848 | 0.27% | 8,780 | -0.77% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,228 | 1.08% | 8,182 | -0.56% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,244 | 0.48% | 9,182 | -0.67% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,052 | -0.05% | 4,045 | -0.20% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 60.63 | 0.21% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 389,654 | 120731 | 386,410 | 15,453 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 282,357 | 94,318 | 664,427 | 33,779 | | | 菜油主力 | 手 | 18 ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 烧碱：近月交割压力大，但成本仍有支撑 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | | | 05合约期货价格 | 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 | 山东现货32碱折盘面 | 基差 | | 2167 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 | 640 | 2000 | -167 | 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，春节期间受液氯走货困难影响山东部分企业开工负荷不满，碱厂库存较节前预期向 好，部分低库存企业价格拉涨。其中鲁西南 32%离子膜碱主流成交 590-650；鲁中东部 32%离子膜碱主流成 交 590-635，50%离子膜碱主流成交 990-1100；鲁北 32%离子膜碱主流成交 600-630；鲁南 32%离子膜碱主流 成交 660-670。 【市场状况分析】 春节期间，液氯维持弱势，山东液氯价格维持补贴，对烧碱价格产生支撑。春节后，烧碱高库存情况下， 短期大幅上涨空间或有限。考虑到节后仅 4 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-26 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-26 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 "沪七条"：非沪籍外环内购房社保门槛降至 1 年，公积金贷款最高 324 万 观点分享： 上海五部门联合发布楼市新政，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行。限购方面，非沪籍外环内 购房社保门槛降至 1 年，满 3 年可增购 1 套，持居住证满 5 年免社保限购 1 套。公积金方 面，首套贷款最高额度提至 240 万（多子女家庭最高 324 万），并放宽二套贷款认定。税收 方面，成年子女首套房暂免征收个人住房房产税。继北京之后，上海推出的房市调整政策力 度超预期，信号明确，是上海近年最大幅度松绑。其中公积金额度全国领先，直接降低月供 与首付压力；房产税免征则打通了置换堵点，将会有力地激活改善型需求，在推动市场回归 平稳健康的同时也依然守住了"房住不炒"的底线。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 黑色 | ★★★★ | 黑色：地产预期回暖，黑色商品反弹。2 月 25 日上海市发布了被称为"沪七条"的楼市新 政， ...

2026 年 02 月 26 日 橡胶：震荡偏强 20260226 | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 | gaolinlin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | | | | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 (05合约) | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 17. 240 | 17.030 | +210 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 17, 315 | 17, 180 | +135 | | | | 成交量(手) | 272.777 | 245.962 | +26. 815 | | | | 持仓量 (手) | 175, 091 | 162, 068 | +13, 023 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 112. 570 | 112, 570 | 0 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 22. 664 | 24. 685 | ...

傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | 单 位 | 名 称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | CF2605 CY2605 | 元/吨 | 15,380 21,315 | 0.62% 0.21% | 15540 21450 | 1.04% 0.63% | | ICE美棉5 | | 美分/磅 | 66.16 | 1.01% | | - | | 昨日成交 | | | | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 手 | 期 货 CF2605 | | 840,688 | 223,113 | 1,169,274 | 69,884 | | 手 | CY2605 | | 15,055 | -1,999 | 12,630 | 1,045 | | 昨日仓单量 | | | | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | 郑棉 | | 张 | 11,124 | 111 | 1,205 | 64 | | 棉纱 | ...