2025 年 12 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 燃料油：暂时回到震荡行情，等待驱动出现 低硫燃料油：偏强震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差 小幅反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油趋势强度：0；低硫燃料油趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空，2 表示最看多。 究 所 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2602 | 元/吨 | 2, 460 | -0. 57% | | 2.462 | -0. 49% | | | | EU2603 | 元/吨 | 2.480 | -0. 49% | | 2, 474 | -0. 32% | | | | LU2602 | 元/吨 | 3.005 | 0. 40% | | 3.000 | 0.13% | | | | FU260 ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 焦炭：震荡反复 焦煤：震荡反复 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1132 | 6. 5 | 0.6% | | 期货价格 | | J2605 | 1746 | 5 | 0. 3% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 1169245 | 500547 | -8652 | | | | J2601 | 16601 | 28726 | -552 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1140 | 1140 | 0 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1600 | 1600 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1500 | 1500 ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 尿素：中期中枢上移 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,735 | 1,721 | 1 4 -11425 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,732 | 1,713 | 1 9 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 166,721 | 178,146 | | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 187,367 | 179,049 | 8318 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 10,432 | 10,532 | -100 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 577,437 | 610,495 | -33058 | | | | | 山东地区基差 | -5 | -1 | - 4 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -175 | -161 | -14 | | | | 东光- ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 合成橡胶：弱现实强预期，步入震荡 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 商 品 研 究 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,395 | 11,175 | 220 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 191,046 | 156,564 | 34482 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 99,013 | 103,099 | -4086 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,070,905 | 881,139 | 189767 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -395 | -175 | -220 | | | 月差 | BR01-BR05 | | -120 | -95 | -25 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营 ...

多晶硅：增加交割厂库，关注情绪面 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,860 | 80 | 390 | -80 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 322,150 | -29,275 | -24,134 | 108,138 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 218,190 | 4,414 | 7,380 | -44,486 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 58,300 | -925 | -3,295 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 197,440 | 44,127 | -175,859 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 127,084 | -4,519 | -26,384 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Near - term, the rebound of caustic soda is restricted, with contracts 2601 and 2602 having limited continuous rebound space due to factors like high production, high inventory, and negative feedback from the alumina industry. However, far - month contracts are undervalued and have long - allocation value with cost support, but significant price increases require large - scale supply - side maintenance or production cuts [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On December 24, the Shandong market was divided. The eastern part had stable prices with low inventory pressure, while the western part faced poor sales and low prices due to reduced external demand. The 01 - contract futures price was 2250, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 710, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2219, and the basis was - 31 [2]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - The rebound of caustic soda is driven by near - term capital shifting and expected supply cuts next year. But in terms of fundamentals, caustic soda will have high production and high inventory around the Spring Festival. Demand is weak due to low alumina profits and seasonal decline in non - aluminum downstream demand and export pressure. Supply is under pressure as winter is a low - maintenance season for chlor - alkali enterprises. Near - term contracts are suppressed by warehouse receipts, while far - term contracts are undervalued but need supply - side changes for significant price increases [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers from - 2 to 2 [4].

2025年12月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 3 | | 铜：外强内弱，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：底部横盘 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：外盘休市，警惕回调 | 14 | | 钯：投资情绪转向，料下行幅度较大 | 14 | | 镍：盘面资金博弈，追高仍需谨慎 | 16 | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注复产进展与情绪降温 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注工厂减产情况 | 20 | | 多晶硅：增加交割厂库，关注情绪面 | 20 | | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：震荡反复 | 27 | | 焦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment: - **Strongly Bullish (Trend Intensity: +2)**: None - **Bullish (Trend Intensity: +1)**: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Bean Meal [49][185] - **Neutral (Trend Intensity: 0)**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Lead, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Platinum, Palladium, MEG, Logs, PX, PTA, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Eggs, Hogs, Peanuts [16][19][81][185] - **Bearish (Trend Intensity: -1)**: Carbonate Lithium, Platinum, Palladium [42][52] - **Strongly Bearish (Trend Intensity: -2)**: None 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Macroeconomic Policy The People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee's Q4 2025 meeting decided to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and strengthening the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [7]. 2.2 Commodity Market - **Silver**: Although there is a short - term adjustment demand at high levels, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to the unsolvable global inventory contradiction. There is a possibility of intensified contradictions until 2026 [8]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental situation is weak, but news and capital disturbances are intensifying. There is a risk of a catch - up increase due to Indonesian news. There are also structural opportunities, such as internal - external positive spreads and nickel - iron and futures spreads [10]. - **MEG**: Affected by the planned shutdown of a Taiwanese plant next month, the price increased. However, high port inventories and polyester production cut expectations will limit the price increase [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Focus - **Central Bank Policy**: The Q4 2025 meeting of the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee decided to continue the moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [7]. - **Recommended by the Director**: Silver is highly recommended, with recent price fluctuations driven by macro - liquidity and the performance of platinum and palladium. Nickel has a weak fundamental situation but potential for a catch - up increase due to Indonesian news. MEG rose due to the planned shutdown of a Taiwanese plant [8][10][12]. 3.2 Commodity Research 3.2.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining [16]. - **Silver**: High - level adjustment is expected, with a long - term upward trend supported by inventory contradictions [8]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is strong overseas but weak domestically, limiting price increases [23]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation [26]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price [29]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted [32]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, while alumina is at the bottom and moving sideways [36]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - **Nickel**: There is capital game in the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [44]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is affected by Indonesian nickel ore news [45]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PTA**: Cost support is strong, and the price trend is upward [81]. - **MEG**: The valuation has bottomed out and rebounded, but there is medium - term pressure [82]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating strongly [83]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is entering an oscillating phase with weak current situation and strong expectations [86]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable [89]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is a short - term rebound, but the height is limited [177]. - **Soybean Oil**: The impact of US soybeans is limited, and range - bound operation is recommended [177]. - **Bean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans rose, and Dalian bean meal may rebound and oscillate [183]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [186]. - **Sugar**: There is an expectation of a weak basis [190]. - **Cotton**: The futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment [195]. - **Eggs**: They are in an oscillating adjustment phase [202]. - **Hogs**: Speculative demand has been fulfilled [204]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase by oil mills [209].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 LLDPE：基差走弱，现货成交放量 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6408 | 1.78% | 773352 | -41207 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -208 | | -196 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -37 | | -39 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6200 | | 6100 | | | | 华 东 | 6300 | | 6250 | | | | 华 南 | 6300 | | 6250 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货反弹 ...

Report Title - LPG: Short-term Firmness, Long-term Pressure; Propylene: Spot Weakness [1][2] Market Data Futures Prices - PG2601 closed at 4,221 with a daily gain of 0.86% and a night session close of 4,235 with a 0.33% gain [2] - PG2602 closed at 4,082 with a 1.27% daily gain and a night session close of 4,088 with a 0.15% gain [2] - PL2601 closed at 5,890 with a -0.57% daily change and a night session close of 5,951 with a 1.04% gain [2] - PL2602 closed at 5,740 with a 1.76% daily gain and a night session close of 5,776 with a 0.63% gain [2] - PL2603 closed at 5,758 with a 2.24% daily gain and a night session close of 5,775 with a 0.30% gain [2] Trading Volume and Open Interest - PG2601 had a trading volume of 2,615, a decrease of 5,292 from the previous day, and an open interest of 3,696, a decrease of 1,319 [2] - PG2602 had a trading volume of 59,892, a decrease of 59,076, and an open interest of 71,590, a decrease of 3,268 [2] - PL2601 had a trading volume of 317, an increase of 97, and an open interest of 890, a decrease of 211 [2] - PL2602 had a trading volume of 6,682, a decrease of 4,091, and an open interest of 7,431, a decrease of 471 [2] - PL2603 had a trading volume of 24,928, a decrease of 244, and an open interest of 17,231, a decrease of 1,053 [2] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG01 contract was 279, compared to 295 the previous day [2] - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG01 contract was 379, compared to 375 the previous day [2] - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was -185, compared to -114 the previous day [2] - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -40, compared to -74 the previous day [2] - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -65, compared to -99 the previous day [2] Industry Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.0%, up from 72.9% last week [2] - The MTBE operating rate was 68.9%, down from 69.8% [2] - The alkylation operating rate was 36.8%, down from 39.5% [2] Market Trends - LPG trend intensity is 0; propylene trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [6] Market News - On December 24, 2025, the January CP paper cargo for propane was $510/ton, up $1/ton from the previous day; butane was $501/ton, unchanged. The February CP paper cargo for propane was $505/ton, up $3/ton [7] - There are multiple domestic PDH plant maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting on May 12, 2023, and others with various start times and undetermined end times [8] - There are also domestic LPG plant maintenance plans, such as Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation) starting on January 3, 2025, and others with specific start and end times and loss volumes [9]