2026年02月03日 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪退潮，地缘影响衰减 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：盘面震荡，跟随商品市场情绪波动 | 4 | | 豆一：国储拍卖成交较好，影响偏多 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260203 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：节前拉涨不及预期，压力扩大 | 11 | | 花生：震荡偏弱 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 03 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,014 | -2.45% | 9,092 | 0.87% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,09 ...

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：下游陆续采购，盘面下方空间较有限 | 4 | | 工业硅：硅厂减产落地，下方空间不深 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 2）新华社 12 月 12 日从商务部获悉，商务部、海关总署日前印发公告，决定对部分钢铁产品实施出口 许可证管理。公告自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起执行。 3）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 ...

锡矿成本梳理 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 唐文豪（联系人） 从业资格号：F03152608 日期：2026年1月 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 全球锡矿成本中枢上行，成本结构性增长 ◆ 全球锡矿成本中枢上行： 全球锡矿成本预计上行 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 为排除汇率波动，本文人民币对美元汇率取6.9554 资料来源：SMM，ITA，国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 据国际锡业协会ITA统计，2022年全球锡矿90分位现金 成本和完全成本分别为23171美元/吨（161164元/吨） 和25581美元/吨（177926元/吨） 。 ◆ 预计到2030年，分别上涨至3.6万美元/吨（250394元/ 吨）和5.4万美元/吨（375592元/吨） 。 ◆ 资本开支支撑完全成本，成本结构性增长： ◆ 伴随人力、能源等成本上升，直接的现金成本预计将在 8年间稳步增长55%； ◆ 而伴随资源勘探、新矿开发、设备更新等资本开支项目 的快速 ...

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2026/2/2 | 李先飞 | 王蓉 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 色及责金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | F03142619 | Z0021479 | | | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | 上月 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2026/1/5 | 2026/2/2 | 2026/1/30 | 2026/1/26 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | -152.82 | ...

| 张银 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018397 zhangyin023941@gtjas.com | | --- | | 目录 | | 1. 市场综述 2 | | 2. 市场数据 6 | | 2.1 市场概览 6 | | 2.2 玉米期权 7 | | 2.3 豆粕期权 7 | | 2.4 菜粕期权 8 | | 2.5 棕榈油期权 8 | | 2.6 豆油期权 9 | | 2.7 菜籽油期权 9 | | 2.8 花生期权 10 | | 2.9 黄大豆 1 号期权 10 | | 2.10 黄大豆 2 号期权 11 | | 2.11 乙二醇期权 11 | | 2.12 苯乙烯期权 12 | | 2.13 白糖期权 12 | | 2.14 棉花期权 13 | | 2.15 PTA 期权 13 | | 2.16 PX 期权 14 | | 2.17 烧碱期权 14 | | 2.18 橡胶期权 15 | | 2.19 BR 橡胶期权 15 | | 2.20 聚乙烯期权 16 | | 2.21 聚丙烯期权 16 | | 2.22 甲醇期权 17 | | 2.23 液化石油气期权 17 | | 2.24 PVC 期权 18 | ...

2026 年 2 月 2 日 锡：回调整理 | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 唐文豪（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03152608 | tangwenhao@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 409,000 | -8.32% | 412,260 | -6.56% | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 50,600 | -7.16% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 468,870 | 103,163 | 40,079 | -8,589 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 990 | -657 | 25,225 | 360 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is releasing risks, and silver is falling from a high level. Copper is waiting for guidance with price fluctuations. Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. Lead has weak supply and demand with price fluctuations. Aluminum's volatility is increasing, and attention should be paid to the equity market trend. Alumina's oscillation is converging, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Platinum should be wary of panic selling, and palladium is following a weak adjustment. Nickel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the nickel - iron expectation provides support at the bottom [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver products all declined significantly. For example, the daily decline of Comex gold 2602 was 9.30%, and that of Comex silver 2602 was 26.37%. The night - trading prices also showed large drops, with the night - trading decline of Shanghai silver 2602 reaching 17.00% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of some products increased, while the positions decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 372,766, and the position decreased by 24,521 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products decreased. For example, the inventory of Shanghai silver decreased by 26,940 kg, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 3,431,295 ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar and a sell - off of gold and silver. The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown was inevitable. The CME raised the trading margins for gold and silver [4][7]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai copper and London copper both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai copper's main contract was 4.98%, and that of London copper 3M electronic disk was 4.25% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai copper index increased by 606,369, and the position decreased by 29,840. The trading volume of London copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 52,697, and the position increased by 1,459 [8]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 5,223 tons, and the inventory of London copper decreased by 1,100 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of London copper was 23.89%, with a decrease of 0.87% [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump nominated a new Fed chairman, and some copper mines in Chile had production problems. For example, the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile basically stopped production, and Lundin Mining lowered its 2026 copper production guidance [8][10]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai zinc and London zinc both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai zinc's main contract was 0.44%, and that of London zinc 3M electronic disk was 2.22% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai zinc's main contract increased by 172,422, and the position decreased by 8,962. The trading volume of London zinc decreased by 23,075, and the position increased by 5,365 [11]. - **News**: The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown was inevitable [12][13]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai lead and London lead both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai lead's main contract was 1.86%, and that of London lead 3M electronic disk was 0.77% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai lead's main contract increased by 34,910, and the position decreased by 2,608. The trading volume of London lead decreased by 4,770, and the position increased by 3,394 [14]. - **News**: Trump nominated a new Fed chairman, and some candidates called for interest rate cuts [14]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina, and aluminum alloy all showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum's main contract decreased by 1,030 compared with T - 1 [16]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of each product also changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai aluminum's main contract increased by 254,608 compared with T - 1, and the position decreased by 57,628 [16]. - **News**: The global AI computing power construction has led to a surge in transformer orders, and Wall Street is focusing on Warsh's potential Fed policies [18]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium products all declined. For example, the decline of platinum futures 2606 was 11.70%, and the decline of palladium futures 2606 was 11.88% [19]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of some products increased, and the positions decreased. For example, the trading volume of Guangzhou platinum increased by 12,277, and the position decreased by 2,505 [19]. - **News**: The US federal government entered a partial "shutdown" state, and there were various international news such as Russia - US talks and SpaceX's satellite deployment plan [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel's main contracts both declined. The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract decreased by 7,470 compared with T - 1, and that of stainless steel's main contract decreased by 445 [25]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract increased by 229,168 compared with T - 1, and the trading volume of stainless steel's main contract increased by 167,856 [25]. - **Industry Chain**: The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel industry chain changed. For example, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread decreased by 20 [25]. - **News**: The Indonesian government has taken a series of measures, such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses, revising the benchmark price formula of nickel ore, and adjusting the nickel ore production target. There were also news about steel product export license management and ship accidents [25][26][28].

期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 02 日 对二甲苯：高位震荡市，月差偏弱 PTA：高位震荡市 MEG：区间操作 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7400 | 5270 | 3913 | 6656 | 470.8 | | 涨跌 | -82 | -62 | -44 | -64 | -1.7 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.10% | -1.16% | -1.11% | -0.95% | -0.36% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 16 | -12 | -105 | -56 | -5.2 | | 前日收盘价 | 16 | -18 | -97 | -56 | -7.8 | | 涨跌 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 0 | 2.6 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华 ...

2026年02月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | 对二甲苯：高位震荡市，月差偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅偏弱20260202 | 5 | | 合成橡胶:高位回落 | 7 | | LLDPE：进口利润缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑偏强 | 9 | | PP：油价上行，成本支撑 | 10 | | 烧碱：成本支撑，未来预期较强 | 11 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡20260202 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 尿素：震荡回落 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | PVC：情绪偏强，基本面未有明显改善 | 22 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，高波动态势延续 | 23 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅调整，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 23 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 24 | | 短纤：高位 ...

2026年2月2日 右安期賞研 商品情绪共振,宽幅震 品情绪共振 宽幅震荡 | 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号: F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源:钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1、财联社: 【两部门】将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升至不低于 50%，完善电力市 场交易和价格机制 鼓励供需双方在中长期合同中签订随市场供需、发电成本变化的灵活价格机制。 2、铁合金在线: 1 月 30 日硅铁 72#: 陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5300-5400（+25），青海 5250-5300 (+25)，甘肃 5250-5300 (+25)，内蒙 5300-5350 (+50)；75#硅铁：陕西 5850-5900，宁夏 5700- 5800,青海 5700-5800,甘肃 5650-5700,内蒙 5800-5850（现金含税自然块出厂,元/吨）；硅铁 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 品 ...