Report Date - The report was released on December 26, 2025 [1] Industry Focus - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, inventory, and raw material costs [2] - There is a news about the trading volume limit on polysilicon futures contracts starting from December 29, 2025 [2][4] - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 0, indicating a neutral view [4] Summary by Category Futures Market Data - Si2605: The closing price is 8,835 yuan/ton, with a change of -25 yuan compared to T - 1, 190 yuan compared to T - 5, and -125 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 268,435 lots, with a change of -53,715 lots compared to T - 1, -80,042 lots compared to T - 5, and 20,247 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest is 216,554 lots, with a change of -1,636 lots compared to T - 1, 8,774 lots compared to T - 5, and -47,365 lots compared to T - 22 [2] - PS2605: The closing price is 60,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,460 yuan compared to T - 1 and 1,460 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 124,231 lots, with a change of -73,209 lots compared to T - 1 and -274,588 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest is 132,126 lots, with a change of 5,042 lots compared to T - 1 and -7,734 lots compared to T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot - to - futures basis varies depending on the benchmark, such as +415 yuan/ton (against East China Si5530), +15 yuan/ton (against East China Si4210), -135 yuan/ton (against Xinjiang 99 silicon) [2] - Polysilicon: The spot - to - futures basis against N - type re - feed is -8760 yuan/ton, with changes of -2,460 yuan compared to T - 1, -1,460 yuan compared to T - 5, and -5,525 yuan compared to T - 22 [2] Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton [2] - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feed is 52,350 yuan/ton [2] - Other products: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and other related products are also provided [2] Profits - Silicon plant: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 is -2491.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 is -4829 yuan/ton [2] - Polysilicon enterprise: The profit is 8.0 yuan/kg, with changes compared to different time points [2] - Other industries: The profits of DMC enterprises, regenerative aluminum enterprises are also presented [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 19.6 million tons, the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 75.1 million tons, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory is 4.6 million tons [2] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 30.3 million tons [2] Raw Material Costs - The costs of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions are provided [2] Macro and Industry News - Starting from December 29, 2025, non - futures company members or customers have a daily opening volume limit of 50 lots on each of the polysilicon futures contracts PS2601 - PS2612. Hedging and market - making transactions are exempted, and accounts with real control relationships are managed as one account [2][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the report's investment rating for the industry is provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On December 25, 2025, all four major index futures contracts for the current month rose. The overall sentiment is positive, with the market expected to be volatile but on an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Price and Change**: The closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased, with gains of 0.18%, 0.25%, 0.80%, and 0.97% respectively. The corresponding index futures contracts also showed varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 11,854, 7,004, 12,456, and 14,596 lots respectively. In terms of open interest, IF and IC decreased by 563 and 3,891 lots respectively, IH increased by 197 lots, and IM decreased by 3,977 lots [1][2]. - **Basis**: The basis data for different index futures contracts are presented, showing the differences between the futures prices and the spot prices [1]. 3.2 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - The data shows the changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts. For example, in the IF2601 contract, long positions decreased by 1,522 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,499 lots [5]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - slightly bullish trend [6]. 3.4 Important Drivers - The offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark during intraday trading for the first time since September 2024. Most views believe that the RMB against the US dollar has the basis for continued appreciation in 2026 [6]. - From January to November this year, 25,800 urban old residential areas were newly started for renovation across the country, and 22 regions and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have completed their annual renovation plans [6]. 3.5 Market Conditions - The Politburo held a meeting to study and deploy the work of improving Party conduct, building a clean government, and combating corruption in 2026 [7]. - The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording seven consecutive positive days. The trading volume reached 1.94 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day. Some sectors such as commercial aerospace and paper - making performed strongly, while others like Hainan Free Trade Zone and precious metals weakened [7].

Report Investment Ratings - PX: Strong upward trend [1][5] - PTA: Strong cost support, upward trend [1][5] - MEG: Limited upside, medium - term pressure [1][6] Core Views - PX's tight supply expectation can't be falsified in the short - term despite polyester plant's planned production cuts, so its unilateral price trend is strong and it squeezes downstream profits [5] - PTA has strong cost support due to PX's strength, with supply tightening and a continued de - stocking pattern, so its unilateral trend is upward [5] - MEG has a medium - term weak trend. Low valuation, high domestic operating rate, high port inventory and polyester production cut expectations limit its price increase [6] Market Data Summary Futures - PX, PTA, PF prices rose yesterday with increases of 0.88%, 1.14%, 0.86% respectively, while SC decreased by 0.45%, and MEG remained unchanged [2] - PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, PF12 - 1 month - spreads increased, while MEG1 - 5 and SC11 - 12 decreased [2] Spot - PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG spot prices rose, while naphtha MOPJ decreased, and Dated Brent increased [2] - PX - naphtha spread and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread increased, while PTA, short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees decreased [2] Market Dynamics Summary PTA - This week, Ineos' 1.1 million - ton and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million - ton plants restarted, Yisheng New Materials reduced load, and some plants had short - stops. By Thursday, PTA load was 70.8% [3] MEG - As of December 25, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 72.15% (up 0.18% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 76.37% (up 0.91% from the previous period) [3] Polyester - This week, the operating load of large - scale polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was about 75%. (Since January 2025, the production capacity base of polyester industrial yarn has been adjusted to 3.28 million tons) [3] - One polyester filament plant is shutting down, one filament plant restarted and produced normally, and one new bottle - chip plant produced products. In addition, three major polyester filament manufacturers cut production collectively, involving load reduction of some polyester plants [3] - Since December 1, 2025, the polyester production capacity in mainland China has been revised up to 89.84 million tons, with new 300,000 - ton plants of Xinjiang Yuxin and Anhui Youshun. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was about 89.7% [5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5] Views and Suggestions PX - Pay attention to long PX short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions and 5 - 9 positive spreads [5] PTA - Go long on PTA, short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB, hold positive spreads [5] MEG - Medium - term trend is weak, upside is limited [6]

2025年12月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：盘面资金博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：正极大厂检修，关注回调风险 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注情绪带动 | 6 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格报涨 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 26 日 镍：盘面资金博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 125,410 | -2,590 | 11,470 | 9,540 | 9,250 | 3,960 | | 期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][6] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide-range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate at low levels [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.13%. The open interest was 567,104 lots, up 13,387 lots. Spot prices were stable. The basis and spreads showed some minor changes [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The HC2605 contract closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. Spot prices had some minor changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed various changes. Spot prices and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, and news about furnace start-ups and shutdowns in some factories [13][14][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2605 and J2605 contracts decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable, with some minor changes [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [23] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: p-Xylene, PTA, rubber, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil [2][10][79] - **Neutral Trends**: MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, short fiber, bottle chip, offset printing paper, pure benzene [2][15][25] - **Negative Trends**: None 2. Core Views - **PX**: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite polyester factory plans to cut production, the tight supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short term [8]. - **PTA**: Supply tightens, cost support is strong, and the unilateral trend is upward. The PX price continues to rise, squeezing downstream profits [8]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The current valuation is low, but the high operating rate and high port inventory restrict price increases [9]. - **Rubber**: The market is oscillating strongly. Although the price of Thai glue has declined, the cup rubber price is relatively firm, and the raw material price in Yunnan is stable [10][12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a weak current situation but has strong future expectations, entering an oscillatory pattern. The previous rise was due to improved butadiene fundamentals and strong far - month expectations, but the current fundamentals have weakened marginally [15]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable. The overall supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight decline in refinery operating rates and inventory rates [17][26]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is weak, and spot trading has declined. The raw material price is oscillating, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply side has some new production and maintenance, and the medium - term supply - demand pressure is still large [27][28]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is compressed again, and the market is oscillating steadily. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [30][31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. - **Pulp**: It is oscillating. The pulp price has increased weekly, but the intraday price is stable. The futures and spot markets show differentiation, and the port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The downstream demand is average, and the float glass factory is mainly focused on shipping at a price - for - volume strategy [47]. - **Methanol**: It is oscillating. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the spot price shows a differentiated operation [50][52]. - **Urea**: The medium - term price center will move up. Although the production has gradually recovered, the downstream demand lacks continuous upward momentum [55][57]. - **Styrene**: It is oscillating in the short term. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026, but there are also risks of downstream inventory back - pressure [58][61]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general, with a wait - and - see attitude [63]. - **LPG**: The trend is under pressure. The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [65][71]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors [66]. - **PVC**: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen slightly, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. The low - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating strongly, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The near - month contract is oscillating, and the far - month contract should pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza. The supply and demand of shipping capacity and freight rates are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics and market demand [81][93]. - **Short Fiber**: It is strong in the short term, and the processing fee is compressed. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The market price is relatively stable, and the cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating in the short term. The current inventory is high, but it is expected to improve in 2026, and the price may show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center [59][107]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: PTA device restarts and load reductions coexist, MEG operating rate increases slightly, and polyester load is at a high level [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX and PTA are 1, MEG is 0 [8]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is long - biased, and attention should be paid to multi - PX and short - downstream positions; PTA is long - biased, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and multi - PTA and short - downstream positions; MEG is bearish in the medium term [8][9]. Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price of Thai glue has declined, and the cup rubber price has increased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The inventory of butadiene and synthetic rubber has increased [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The refinery operating rate and inventory rate have decreased slightly [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [25]. - **Market Information**: The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 will decrease, the factory inventory will decrease, and the social inventory will increase [26]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has increased, and the open interest has increased. The basis is weak, and the spot price has increased slightly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [29]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The raw material price is oscillating, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large in the medium term [28]. PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is under pressure, and the spot price has increased slightly [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [32]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [31]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price is 2233, the spot price is 710, and the basis is - 14. The factory inventory has decreased [33][34]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [36]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has increased slightly, and the port inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [40]. Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price has decreased slightly [47]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [47]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass price has decreased in some areas, and the downstream demand is average [47]. Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is stable, and the spot price has shown a differentiated operation [50][52]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [53]. Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has increased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price is stable [55]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [57]. - **Industry News**: The domestic urea enterprise inventory has decreased, and the market price center has moved up [56][57]. Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, and the spot price has some changes. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026 [58][61]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [58]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has increased, and the spot price is stable [63]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [63]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market is weak and stable, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general [63]. LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly [66]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [70]. - **Market Information**: The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [71]. PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price is 4469, the spot price is 4480, and the basis is 11. The social inventory has increased [75]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [77]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [79]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the freight rate index has increased. The shipping capacity has changed, and the geopolitical situation affects the market [81][93]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [98]. - **Macro News**: There are new developments in the Gaza cease - fire negotiation and shipping operations in the Red Sea [90][91]. Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The short - fiber sales are light, and the bottle - chip market trading atmosphere has declined slightly [99][100]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [100]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [103]. - **Industry News**: The market price in Shandong and Guangdong is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is general [104][106]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased [107][108]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [108]. - **News**: The Jiangsu pure benzene port inventory has increased, and the Shandong pure benzene price has increased slightly [108].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "lightly shorting" crude oil [4]. 2. Core View - The report provides an overview of international crude oil market conditions, including price movements, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news, with a bearish view on the crude oil trend as indicated by a trend - strength of - 1 [2][4][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Crude Oil Price - WTI and Brent were closed without quotes. SC2602 crude oil futures rose 1.70 yuan/barrel, or 0.38%, to 444.70 yuan/barrel [2]. 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf**: All listed crude oil varieties in cracking and coking units had a closed arbitrage state, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -0.52 to -8.06 USD/barrel [3]. - **Atlantic**: Some crude oil varieties like Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals in cracking units presented arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.3 to 2.46 USD/barrel, while Cabinda lacked competitiveness [5]. - **North - Western Europe**: Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light in cracking units showed arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.06 to 1.35 USD/barrel, while WTI MEH and Azeri Light lacked competitiveness [6]. - **Mediterranean**: All listed crude oil varieties in cracking units had a closed arbitrage state, with large negative arbitrage spaces from -23.41 to -26.3 USD/barrel [7]. - **Asia**: Duri, Napo, and Mars in coking units presented arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.34 to 5.71 USD/barrel, while Basrah Heavy and Maya were close to the break - even point [8]. 3.3 Key Market News - The US launched a strike against ISIS terrorists in north - western Nigeria [9]. - Iraq's total crude oil exports in November were 106.5 million barrels [10]. - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery with "Storm Shadow" missiles [10]. - A Hamas delegation visited Baghdad and discussed the Gaza cease - fire agreement [10]. - The US escalated sanctions on Venezuela, causing concerns about fuel oil supply. Russian refinery attacks continued, and the market situation was affected by various factors such as seasonal demand changes and quota adjustments [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on December 23 and throughout December 2025 [2][4]. - Some futures, such as palladium, platinum, nickel, and tin, are expected to be volatile and weak on December 25, 2025, with palladium futures likely to hit the lower limit [2]. - Several futures, including gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper, are expected to reach new highs in December 2025 [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **December 23, 2025 Futures Main Contract Forecast**: The report provides forecasts for multiple futures contracts, including stock index futures (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603), precious metal futures (AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, PD2606), base metal futures (CU2602, NI2602, SN2602), and commodity futures (LC2605, RB2605, HC2605, I2605, JM2605), with details on trends, resistance levels, and support levels [2]. - **December 2025 Futures Main (Continuous) Contract Forecast**: Similar to the December 23 forecast, it predicts the trends of various futures contracts, adjusting some trends and support/resistance levels [4]. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, emphasizing the integrated effect of policies to control the money supply and maintain low financing costs. The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan [5]. - **Exchange Rate**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar are rising, approaching the 7 mark. Deutsche Bank predicts that the RMB will appreciate to 6.7 against the US dollar by the end of 2026 [5]. - **Industrial Policy**: Two departments issued the 2025 version of the Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Catalog to guide more foreign investment into specific fields and regions [6]. - **International Trade**: The US plans to impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products starting in 2027, and China firmly opposes this and will take countermeasures [6]. - **Housing Policy**: Beijing optimized its housing purchase restriction policy, relaxing conditions for non - local households and providing benefits for multi - child families [7]. - **Infrastructure Finance**: Eight departments jointly issued 21 financial support measures for the construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor [7]. - **Central Enterprise Tasks**: The central enterprise leaders' meeting outlined five key tasks for 2026, including improving the quality of listed companies and market value management [7]. - **Anti - money Laundering**: The Inter - ministerial Joint Conference on Anti - money Laundering emphasized strengthening the regulatory system and maintaining a high - pressure stance [7]. - **Energy and Consumption**: The national energy consumption in November increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with the charging and swapping service industry's consumption increasing by 60.2% [8]. - **International Affairs**: Ukraine announced a "peace plan" draft, but key territorial issues remain unresolved. Elon Musk predicted high - growth rates for the US economy [8]. - **Nuclear Power**: Japan's largest nuclear power plant will restart a unit on January 20, 2026, and Russia plans to build a lunar power station by 2036 [9]. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Domestic Futures Market**: On December 24, platinum and palladium futures hit the upper limit, while gold, silver, and copper futures reached new highs. Silver futures had a large capital inflow, and gold futures had a large capital outflow [9]. - **Exchange Policy**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum order quantity for lithium carbonate futures contracts and set daily open - position limits [10]. - **International Futures Market**: On December 24, international precious metal futures and oil futures showed mixed trends, and London's basic metal futures also had different performances [10][11]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 24, various stock index futures contracts showed different trends, with some rising slightly. The report predicts that in December 2025, they will be mostly in a strong - volatile state, and on December 25, they will be in a volatile - consolidation state [12][15][16]. - **Precious Metal Futures** - **Gold**: On December 24, the gold futures main contract AU2602 rose slightly. It is expected to be strongly and widely volatile in December 2025 and reach a new high, while on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [34][35]. - **Silver**: On December 24, the silver futures main contract AG2602 rose significantly. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025 and reach a new high, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [37][39]. - **Platinum**: On December 24, the platinum futures main contract PT2606 reached the upper limit. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025 and reach a new high, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile and may hit the lower limit [46]. - **Palladium**: On December 24, the palladium futures main contract PD2606 reached the upper limit. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025 and reach a new high, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile and may close at the lower limit [51]. - **Base Metal Futures** - **Copper**: On December 24, the copper futures main contract CU2602 rose. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025 and reach a new high, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [57]. - **Nickel**: On December 24, the nickel futures main contract NI2602 rose. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [62]. - **Tin**: On December 24, the tin futures main contract SN2602 showed a slight change. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [66][67]. - **Other Commodity Futures** - **Lithium Carbonate**: On December 24, the lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2605 rose. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be widely volatile [71]. - **Rebar**: On December 24, the rebar futures main contract RB2605 rose slightly. It is expected to be widely volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [75]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: On December 24, the hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2605 rose slightly. It is expected to be in a volatile - consolidation state on December 25 [79]. - **Iron Ore**: On December 24, the iron ore futures main contract I2605 rose slightly. It is expected to be widely volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [82]. - **Coking Coal**: On December 24, the coking coal futures main contract JM2605 rose. It is expected to be weakly and widely volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [85][86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strongly positive [1] - PTA: Cost support is strongly positive [1] - MEG: Valuation rebounds from the bottom, but there is still pressure in the medium term [1] Core Viewpoints - PX: The unilateral price trend is strongly positive and squeezes downstream profits. Pay attention to the long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, and the 5 - 9 calendar spread positive arbitrage. Despite polyester factory production cuts, the tight PX supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short - term [9]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, the unilateral trend is upward, with positive arbitrage. Go long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB. Tight PX supply supports the cost and continues to squeeze downstream profits [9]. - MEG: Affected by the news of a 720,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan planning to shut down next month, the ethylene glycol market rose, with short - covering accelerating the increase. The shutdown is expected to reduce mainland imports by 40,000 - 50,000 tons per month. Current MEG valuation is low, causing domestic plants to enter the loss zone and some to consider reducing production. However, high port inventories and polyester production cut expectations limit the upside [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had closing prices of 7,294, 5,094, 3,818, 6,484, and 444.7 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 8, 12, 195, 32, and 3.8, with percentage changes of - 0.11%, 0.24%, 5.38%, 0.50%, and 0.86% respectively [2]. - **Calendar Spreads**: PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 had closing prices of - 82, - 66, - 152, - 54, and - 0.3 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 16, 2, - 33, 16, and - 1.2 respectively [2]. - **Spot**: PX CFR China was 901 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 5,018 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 3,598 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 540.25 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 63.52 dollars/barrel yesterday. The price changes were 5, 63, 76, - 2, and 0.45 respectively [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing margin, short - fiber processing margin, bottle - chip processing margin, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 335.45, 150.47, 221.69, 40.59, and - 4.23 respectively yesterday. The price changes were 30.34, - 28.15, - 24.11, - 61.21, and 0.11 respectively [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: A 200,000 - ton PX plant in Japan is currently restarting after a shutdown in mid - September. A 700,000 - ton PX plant in the Northeast plans to restart this weekend, with capacity expected to expand to 1 million tons after restart. A 390,000 - ton PX plant in North China is shut down, and the restart time is undetermined [2]. - **PTA**: In November, China's PTA exports increased by about 61% compared to October, with a significant increase in Indian buyers' interest. India bought 69,802 tons of PTA in November, more than five times the amount in October. Vietnam's imports increased slightly to 34,120 tons in November. Egypt's imports also increased by about 53% to 92,052 tons [5]. - **MEG**: From December 22 to December 28, the expected arrivals at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Ningbo are about 15,000 tons, 89,000 tons, and 14,000 tons respectively. Two MEG plants in Taiwan with a total capacity of 720,000 tons/year plan to shut down next month, and the restart time is undetermined. An Iranian 500,000 - ton/year MEG plant has restarted recently [6]. - **Polyester**: The total planned production cuts of three major polyester filament manufacturers are about 2.494 million tons, including 1.61 million tons of POY and 883,000 tons of FDY. A 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Tongxiang has shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. On December 24, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 80%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on December 24 was generally weak, with an average of about 40% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each commodity, it gives a trend strength rating ranging from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [11]. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical commodities, including their current market trends, fundamental data, and future outlooks. It offers trading suggestions based on the analysis of each commodity's supply - demand dynamics, cost factors, and market sentiment [12]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. The short - term trend is strong due to the tight supply expectation that cannot be falsified for now. Suggestions include going long on PX and short on PF/PR/BZ/EB, and considering a 5 - 9 positive spread trade [12]. - **PTA**: With strong cost support, the unilateral trend is upward. Suggestions are to go long on PTA and short on PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB, and hold positive spread positions [12]. - **MEG**: After the news of a 720,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan planning to shut down next month, the ethylene glycol futures rose. However, the high port inventory and polyester production cut expectations limit the price increase [12]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. Although the inventory in Qingdao has increased, the cost support still exists. The market is waiting for further guidance from demand and raw materials [13][15]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations, entering an oscillating phase. The short - term rise has slowed down due to the marginal weakening of the fundamentals of butadiene and synthetic rubber [18]. Asphalt - The asphalt spot price is temporarily stable. The recent increase in production capacity utilization is due to some refineries resuming production. The short - term trend is neutral [20][29]. LLDPE - The basis of LLDPE is weakening, and spot trading volume is increasing. The raw material cost is oscillating, and the supply - demand pressure still exists in the medium - term [31][32]. PP - The PDH profit of PP is compressed again, and the futures price is oscillating steadily. The cost support is limited, and the demand is weak. The short - term trend is neutral [33][34]. Caustic Soda - The rebound height of caustic soda is limited. Although there is a short - term rebound due to capital transfer and supply cut expectations, the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains during the Spring Festival [38]. Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The futures price is supported by the firm overseas quotes and port inventory reduction, but limited by the weak domestic demand [44]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The overall market trading atmosphere is average, and processing plants purchase raw materials as needed [49]. Methanol - The methanol market is oscillating. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the market shows a differentiated operation. The short - term trend is neutral [54]. Urea - In the short - term, urea is oscillating, but the 05 contract has support due to the strong expectation of the 2026 agricultural demand peak season. The medium - term price center is expected to move up [59]. Styrene - Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The processing fee is expected to remain at a relatively high level in 2026, but the price may be restricted by the high inventory of downstream products [62][63]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The comprehensive supply is decreasing, and downstream enterprises purchase on a need - to - basis [65]. LPG, Propylene - LPG is strong in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term. Propylene's spot price is weak. The short - term trends of both are neutral [67][68]. PVC - The short - term rebound space of PVC is limited. The high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [77]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has returned to an oscillating market, waiting for a driving force. Low - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating strongly, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [80]. Freight Index (European Line) - The near - month contracts of the freight index (European line) are oscillating, and the far - month contracts should pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza. The short - term 02 contract is expected to oscillate widely between 1700 - 1900 points, and it is advisable to wait and see. For the 04 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively high probability of success [95]. Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip - Short - fiber is following the upward trend of raw materials in the short - term, with a compressed processing fee. Bottle chips are also following the upward trend of raw materials. The short - term trends of both are neutral [97][98]. Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper. The market price is stable, and the trading atmosphere is average [100]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Although its valuation is at a historical low, the rebound needs a substantial change in the supply - demand pattern [61].