中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国数据意外走低，降息预期增加，另外俄乌停战谈判有新进展，黄金高位调整。 | | 黄金 ★ | 长线持有 | 黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价 | | | | 值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期白银交易交割逼仓以及低库存，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货高升 | | | 不宜追高 | 水、白银期货波动率飙升，短期不宜追高。长线供给有缺口，全球经济刺激、流动 | | ★★ | | 性维持宽松，做多逻辑不变 | | 铜 | | 美国 ADP 就业数据大幅不及预期，LME 铜库存注销仓单骤增，海外挤仓担忧加剧， | | | 长线持有 | 国内淡季去库，非美铜库存或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜再创历史新高，建议多单移动 | | ★ | | 逢高止盈，中长期，铜依旧看多。 | | | | 宏观情绪缓和，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱，国内 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 淡季去库，锌上方空间或有限，建议多单止盈落袋。中长期看，锌供增需减，维持 | | ★ | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比小幅下降，变化不大；库存环比下降，杭州地区库存绝对水平仍然 | | ★ | 区间运行 | 较高，基本面平衡偏弱。铁水产量环比再降，与去年同期相近，钢厂主动减限产意愿较 | | | | 低。短期维持缺少强驱动，或区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表需略降，库存变化不大，为近年来同期最高。铁水产量小降，钢 | | ★ | | 厂减产意愿不强。短期或维持区间反复。 | | | | 数据来看，铁水环比小幅再降。后续钢厂检修陆续增加，铁水有继续减量预期，关注其 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 落地情况。钢厂去库，港口增库。外矿发货增加，到货缩量，静态基本面环比转弱。 | | ★ | | | | | | 四轮提涨落地后焦企利润明显改善，多数维持正常生产，库存有所累积，钢厂发起首轮 | | 焦炭 ★ | 谨慎看空 | 提降，幅度为 50-55 元/吨。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，但整体维持一定韧性， 多数钢厂存在检修计划。盘面提降预期已逐步兑现，短期跟随焦煤区间运行。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton [1] - **Bearish Dominance**: Red dates, live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillation. Although recent inventory has increased, the expected decrease in weekly crushing volume may relieve supply pressure. Wait for the US Department of Agriculture's December report and monitor South American soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillation. Due to the influence of weather premium speculation on the soybean meal side and low import expectations, the far - month contract is expected to maintain a bullish oscillation. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's December report and China - Canada trade developments [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to stop falling in stages. Although there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November, there are positive factors such as delayed implementation of EU regulations and floods in Southeast Asia. Be cautious when chasing long at high levels and look for opportunities to go long after adjustments [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish oscillation. Domestic inventory is slightly lower than before but still higher than the five - year average. Follow the trend of palm oil and pay attention to South American soybean weather [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish. With coastal oil mills shut down, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero imports in November, the fundamentals are strong, so a bullish approach is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. ICE market is expected to oscillate. In the domestic market, low - basis resources are decreasing, and cost support is strengthening. However, there are still constraints such as high inventory and hedging pressure. Consider buying on dips and look for medium - to - long - term recovery opportunities [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillating weakly. As new products are launched and the consumption season arrives, the market will transition to a situation of both supply and demand increasing. It is recommended to maintain a bearish attitude, but do not chase short positions excessively [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating weakly. In December, sample enterprises have a high enthusiasm for slaughter. With limited demand growth, it is difficult to support prices. Focus on short - selling opportunities for the near - month 01 contract, and the 03 contract is also bearish. Look for short - term long - buying opportunities for the 09 and 11 contracts after the selling pressure is released [1][18]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957600 tons, up 15100 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733960 tons, up 18970 tons week - on - week; and soybean meal inventory was 120320 tons, up 5170 tons week - on - week [3]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 3046 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3114.86 yuan/ton, down 1.71 yuan or 0.05% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons, both unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 2408 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.62% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2497.89 yuan/ton, down 9.48 yuan or 0.38% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the national key areas' commercial inventory was 653500 tons, down 13600 tons or 2.04% week - on - week [8]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 8730 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8818 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 0.86% [7]. Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion, and rainfall in late November was unfavorable for harvesting; in India, new cotton is being listed, and rainfall in late November affected MSP procurement; in Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and non - main producing areas have started sowing the 2026 new cotton [11]. - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is almost finished, and the sales progress is relatively fast. The new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. The national commercial inventory has increased, and downstream demand has shown some resilience [12]. Red Dates - **Supply**: New dates are being harvested, and the expected new - season output is 500000 - 600000 tons. The purchase price has remained stable recently [15]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 9055 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 0.60% from the previous day. The spot price in some areas has remained unchanged [14]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises increased by 3.2%. The overall supply pressure may still be large, but the long - term supply may gradually decrease as the number of fertile sows decreases [17]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 11490 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.31% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 11430 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan or 1.64% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, ethylene glycol [2][4][7][8] - **Bearish Continuation**: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [2][8] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, urea, natural gas [4][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains its production policy, and the supply glut in the off - season dominates the market. Geopolitical factors from Russia - Ukraine and South America affect prices. Short - term support exists, but long - term downward pressure is large [2][11]. - **LPG**: Cost support declines, and demand weakens, causing the price to fall. Although downstream chemical demand has some resilience, the overall trend is downward [2]. - **L**: Cost support weakens, supply is sufficient, and demand after the peak season is insufficient. The market sentiment for short - selling continues [2]. - **PP**: Cost support weakens, supply pressure eases slightly, but demand is weak. The market remains bearish in the medium - to - long term [2]. - **PVC**: Although there is low - valuation support, the social inventory is high, and the upward driving force is insufficient. Short - term trading depends on funds, and long - term long - positions await inventory reduction [2]. - **PX/PTA**: Processing fees are low, device maintenance is high, supply pressure eases, and downstream demand is good. Short - term supply - demand is tight, and there are opportunities to go long on dips [4][31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production load increases, but future device maintenance is expected to ease supply pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [4]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is decreasing, demand is improving, and the cost has some support. Although the supply pressure still exists, there are opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips [4]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is high currently but is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is weak domestically but strong overseas. There are opportunities to go long on dips [4]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand increases, and the price is expected to be strong [8]. - **Asphalt**: Cost is mainly affected by oil prices, and demand enters the off - season. The price still has room to decline [8]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume is decreasing, and demand is weak. The short - term depends on cold - repair implementation, and the long - term is bearish [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, supply is loose, and demand is declining. Short - sell the 01 contract and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.53%, Brent up 0.35%, and SC down 0.88% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply is in surplus in the off - season, and global and US inventories are increasing. Russian exports are expected to increase, and Indian imports from Russia may decrease [11][12]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [445 - 455] [13]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 3, the PG main contract closed at 4292 yuan/ton, down 0.81%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost is linked to oil prices and trends downward. Supply increases, and demand from downstream chemicals has some resilience, but MTBE blending demand declines. Inventories in refineries and ports decrease [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4250 - 4350] [17]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators had minor changes [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support strengthens temporarily, but supply is sufficient, and demand after the peak season is insufficient. Oil prices may decline in the medium - term [21]. - **Strategy**: Exit short positions due to improved market sentiment. Wait to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6900] [21]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators changed slightly [24]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases slightly due to increased shutdowns, but demand is weak. Propylene warehouse receipts may affect the market [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term is relatively strong, but wait to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Consider going long on PP processing fees 01. Pay attention to the ranges of PP at [6350 - 6500] and propylene at [5850 - 6000] [25]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4586 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators had minor changes [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Warehouse receipts decline from a high level, calcium carbide prices rise. Social inventory is high, but low - valuation support exists [29]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pull - backs according to fund dynamics in the short - term. Wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of V at [4500 - 4700] [29]. PTA - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of PTA changed slightly, and processing fees decreased [30]. - **Fundamentals**: Processing fees are low, device maintenance is high, supply pressure eases, downstream demand is good, and the cost of PX is supportive. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [31]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4690 - 4750] [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The overall market shows a downward trend, and the price fluctuates with cost [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production load increases, but future device maintenance is expected to ease supply pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December, and downstream demand is good but orders are weakening [34]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3791 - 3841] [35]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract's position decreases, and the price fluctuates [38]. - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory decreases, domestic production load increases, overseas production decreases, and demand improves. The cost has some support [38]. - **Strategy**: The rebound height of the 01 contract may be limited. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of MA at [2105 - 2145] [41]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices change slightly, and warehouse receipts increase [42]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is high currently but is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is weak domestically but strong overseas. Inventory decreases slightly but remains high [43]. - **Strategy**: Lightly go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1665 - 1700] [44]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 2, the NG main contract closed at 4.840 dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.65% [47]. - **Fundamentals**: The EU plans to ban Russian gas imports, increasing demand for US LNG. Entering the consumption peak season, demand increases, and inventory in the US decreases [48]. - **Strategy**: The price is likely to rise due to increased demand in the peak season. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.870 - 5.000] [49]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 3, the BU main contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. Spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [52]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost is affected by oil prices, supply decreases slightly, demand increases slightly in the short - term, and inventory decreases [53]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2900 - 3000] [54]. Glass - **Market Performance**: Futures prices decline, and spot prices in different regions change slightly [56]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily melting volume decreases, and demand is weak due to the real - estate market. The short - term depends on cold - repair implementation [58]. - **Strategy**: Short - term may be relatively strong depending on cold - repair implementation, and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of FG at [1020 - 1070] [58]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Futures prices change slightly, and warehouse receipts increase [60]. - **Fundamentals**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is loose, and demand from the glass industry decreases [62]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell the 01 contract and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of SA at [1150 - 1200] [62].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 俄乌停战谈判有新进展，主要国家降息预期降低，黄金高位调整。黄金中长期地缘 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期交割逼仓以及低库存引发白银大涨，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货 高升水、白银期货波动率飙升，昨日上期所库存增加，短期不宜追高，关注波动风 | | ★★ | 不宜追高 | 险。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储内部分歧严重，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 不及预期，国内淡季去库，非美铜库存 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜均高位回落，建议不要盲目追高，多单逐渐逢高止盈，中 | | ★ | | 长期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观情绪缓和，国内淡季去库，出口积极，现货逢低采购提供价格支撑，短期锌受 | | ★ | 反弹 | 阻于 22800 压力位，宽幅震荡。中长期看，锌供增需减，维持反弹逢高沽空观点。 | | 铅 | 承压 | 12 月原生铅、再生铅检修与复产并存，整体有 ...

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | OPEC+维持产量政策不变，淡季供给过剩仍主导市场走势。地缘：俄乌地 缘仍有扰动，乌克兰袭击 CPC 管道，短期提振油价；核心驱动：淡季供 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | ★ | | 油激增，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化， | | | | 俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本支撑下降，需求下降，液化气承压回落。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下，沙特上调 12 月份 CP 合同价，但盘面已计价； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右，下游化工需求存在韧性； | | | | 库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 现货跟涨不足，基差走弱，谨慎看待反弹高度。国内开工季节性回升，月 | | L | 空头盘整 | 内到港资源充足，供给端整体依旧充足 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Bean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton [1] - **Bearish**: Red dates, live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Bean meal: Short - term bullish oscillation, but cautious about chasing long positions, focus on the US agricultural December report and South American soybean planting weather [1][3] - Rapeseed meal: Short - term bullish oscillation, be cautious about chasing long positions in the main contract, pay attention to the US agricultural December report and China - Canada trade progress [1][6] - Palm oil: Expected to stop falling in stages, be cautious about chasing long positions, pay attention to position and risk control [1][7] - Soybean oil: Short - term bullish oscillation, pay attention to South American soybean weather, treat it as a range market this week [1] - Rapeseed oil: Short - term bullish, take a bullish approach, be cautious about short - selling [1] - Cotton: Cautiously bullish, consider buying on dips, and pay attention to medium - to long - term moderate recovery opportunities [1][11] - Red dates: Oscillating weakly, maintain a bearish attitude in general, but do not over - short in the short term [1][13] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly, focus on short - selling opportunities in the near - term 01 contract, the 03 contract is also bearish, and pay attention to short - term long opportunities in 09 and 11 after the selling pressure is released [1][16] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957600 tons, up 15100 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 7339600 tons, up 189700 tons week - on - week; bean meal inventory was 1203200 tons, up 51700 tons week - on - week [3] - **Price**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) was 3045 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day; national average spot price was 3116.57 yuan/ton, down 6.86 yuan or - 0.22% [2] - **Market Outlook**: Before the release of the US agricultural December report, it maintains a short - term bullish oscillation pattern, but be cautious about chasing long positions [1][3] Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons; unfulfilled contracts were 0 tons, down 0.01 tons week - on - week [6] - **Price**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) was 2423 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; national average spot price was 2507.37 yuan/ton, down 12.1 yuan or - 0.48% [4] - **Market Outlook**: Affected by weather premium speculation in the bean meal sector and low import expectations, the far - month rapeseed meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation [1][6] Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 653500 tons, down 13600 tons or 2.04% week - on - week [7] - **Export and Production**: In November 2025 in Malaysia, different institutions' data showed a decline in palm oil exports, and the production decreased slightly [7] - **Market Outlook**: The futures price rebounded and closed up yesterday, but there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November, so be cautious about chasing long positions [1][7] Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion; in India, new cotton is on the market, and MSP purchases are affected by rain; in Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing is 73.87% complete, and non - main产区 starts sowing 2026 new cotton [9] - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is basically completed, public inspection is over half, sales are fast, cost support is strengthened, but there is high inventory pressure [10][11] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bullish, consider buying on dips, and pay attention to medium - to long - term opportunities [1][11] Red Dates - **Supply**: New jujubes are on the market, and the expected production is 500000 - 600000 tons, with an oversupply situation [13] - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 10848 tons, up 518 tons week - on - week [13] - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, maintain a bearish attitude in general, but do not over - short in the short term [1][13] Live Pigs - **Supply**: In December, the planned slaughter increases, and the overall supply pressure is large [15][16] - **Demand**: Downstream slaughter increases, cold storage passively stocks up, and social retail catering consumption improves slightly [15] - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, focus on short - selling opportunities in the near - term 01 contract, the 03 contract is also bearish, and pay attention to short - term long opportunities in 09 and 11 after the selling pressure is released [1][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Low-level range operation [3] - Coke: First round of price cut implemented, range operation [8] - Coking Coal: Supply still has disruptions, maintain range operation [12] - Ferroalloys: Limited supply-demand contradictions, maintain range operation [15] Core Views of the Report - Steel: The fundamentals of rebar are weakly balanced, with slightly decreased production and apparent demand, and decreased inventory. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased slightly, the apparent demand has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period in recent years. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][5] - Iron Ore: Iron water production is expected to decrease further, the fundamentals have weakened, and a cautious bearish view is taken [6][7] - Coke: After the fourth round of price increase, the profits of coke enterprises have improved, and inventories have accumulated. Steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. It is expected to follow coking coal in the short term [10] - Coking Coal: Domestic raw coal production has decreased, supply disruptions exist, and the market transaction is light. It is expected to repair the basis and maintain range operation [13] - Manganese Silicon: The supply in the production area is decreasing, the demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The upward trend lacks sustainability [16][17] - Ferrosilicon: The industry's losses have deepened, but production is relatively stable, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. The upward trend lacks sustainability [16][17] Summary by Variety Rebar - **Variety View**: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly, inventory decreased, and the fundamentals are weakly balanced. Iron water production decreased, and steel mills' willingness to reduce production is low [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term lack of strong driving force, may fluctuate in the range [5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Variety View**: Production increased slightly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory is at the highest level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Iron water production decreased slightly, steel mills' willingness to reduce production is not strong, and it may fluctuate in the range in the short term [5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Iron water production is expected to decrease further, steel mills are destocking, ports are increasing inventory, and the fundamentals have weakened [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken, and long positions should avoid the edge for the time being [7] Coke - **Variety View**: After the fourth round of price increase, the profits of coke enterprises have improved, inventories have accumulated, and steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. Iron water production has decreased, and most steel mills have maintenance plans [10] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken [11] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Domestic raw coal production has decreased, supply disruptions exist, the market transaction is light, and downstream restocking needs to be concerned [13] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken [14] Manganese Silicon - **Variety View**: The supply in the production area is decreasing, the demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The new round of steel procurement has not started yet [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: The short-term cost has certain support, but the upward trend lacks sustainability. It is recommended to be cautious [17] Ferrosilicon - **Variety View**: The industry's losses have deepened, but production is relatively stable, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. The new round of steel procurement has not started yet [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, but the upward trend lacks sustainability. It is expected to operate in the range [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding recommended [1] - Silver: Not recommended to chase high in the short - term, long - term long positions to hold [1] - Copper: Long - term holding recommended [1] - Zinc: Short - term rebound, long - term sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Short - term stabilization [1] - Tin: Short - term relatively strong [1] - Aluminum: Short - term rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: Gold is supported by geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases in the long - term. Silver has a long - term supply - demand gap but is not suitable for short - term chasing due to high volatility and inventory changes [1][3] - Copper: Copper has reached a record high, not recommended to chase high blindly, but is bullish in the medium - to - long - term due to supply shortages and strategic value [1][6] - Zinc: Zinc shows a short - term rebound but is expected to have increased supply and decreased demand in the long - term, so sell on rallies [1][9] - Aluminum: Aluminum prices show a short - term rebound with ongoing inventory reduction [1][10] - Nickel: Nickel price rebound is under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [1][17] - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate maintains inventory reduction and is expected to be in a high - level shock, with opportunities to go long after the shock [1][20] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: COMEX silver has a short - term rally due to delivery squeeze, with a nearly 10% increase this week. Gold is affected by silver's movement [2] - **Core Logic**: Fed's potential rate - cut, weak US economic data, long - term supply - demand gap in silver, and long - term bullishness in gold due to global monetary environment and geopolitical factors. Short - term high volatility in silver makes it not suitable for chasing [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term focus on support levels (gold at 935, silver at 12600), long - term value - oriented positions to hold, short - term trading to be cautious [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Both Shanghai and LME copper prices have reached record highs, with speculative capital inflows [4] - **Core Logic**: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, production decline, inventory changes, and potential tariff expectations. Copper is a strategic resource and has substitution value [5][6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase high blindly, gradually move stop - profit for long positions, beware of high - level decline. Bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term focus on price ranges (Shanghai copper: [88000, 91000] yuan/ton; LME copper: [10800, 11500] dollars/ton) [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc shows a volatile and upward trend [7] - **Core Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decline, production and consumption are in a weak state in the short - term, inventory reduction in the off - season, and potential impact from environmental inspections [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc shows a short - term rebound, sell on rallies in the long - term. Focus on price ranges (Shanghai zinc: [22500, 23000] yuan/ton; LME zinc: [3000, 3100] dollars/ton) [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, while alumina is in a weak position [10][11] - **Core Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminum production reduction, inventory reduction in domestic aluminum ingots, and improvement in downstream demand. Alumina supply is in an over - supply situation [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term take profit and wait and see, pay attention to inventory changes. Main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [21000 - 22100] [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [14][15] - **Core Logic**: Potential production reduction in Indonesia, high inventory levels, and weak downstream stainless steel demand in the off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on dips and wait and see, pay attention to stainless steel inventory changes. Main operating range for nickel is [116000 - 119000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 has a short - term rally and then falls back [18][19] - **Core Logic**: Continuous inventory reduction for 15 weeks, high terminal demand, and potential for production increase. Price is expected to be in a high - level shock [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on pullbacks in the range of [94000 - 98000] [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Low-range operation [3] - Iron ore: Cautiously bearish [7] - Coke: Bullish [10] - Coking coal: Bullish [14] - Ferroalloys: Cautiously bullish [15] Core Views - Steel: The production and apparent demand of rebar decreased slightly month-on-month, with inventory also decreasing, but the absolute inventory level in Hangzhou is still high, and the fundamentals are weakly balanced. The production of hot-rolled coils increased slightly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory remained unchanged, reaching the highest level in the same period in recent years. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][5]. - Iron ore: The molten iron production decreased slightly month-on-month. With increasing steel mill maintenance, there is an expectation of further reduction in molten iron. Steel mills are destocking while port inventory is increasing. The shipment of foreign mines increased while the arrival volume decreased, and the static fundamentals weakened month-on-month. It is recommended to avoid going long for now [6][7]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price increases, coke enterprises' profits improved significantly, with most maintaining normal production and inventory accumulating. Steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Although molten iron production decreased month-on-month, it maintained some resilience, and some steel mills have maintenance plans. The expected price cut in the futures market has been gradually realized, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [9]. - Coking coal: Domestic raw coal production decreased month-on-month. Some coal mines in Shanxi stopped production collectively due to accidents, and there is still uncertainty in supply. It is expected that short-term production will remain at a low level. The Sino-Mongolian border port has resumed normal operation, recent Mongolian coal transactions have been light, and some domestic coal prices have risen slightly. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking intentions. In the short term, it is mainly to repair the basis, and the price may stop falling periodically, with the market expected to remain strong [13]. - Ferroalloys: For ferromanganese, the port ore price is relatively firm, the supply in the production area is declining, demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. A new round of steel tenders has not started yet, and attention should be paid to the entry rhythm of steel mills. For ferrosilicon, the industry's loss has deepened, but manufacturers in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are producing relatively stably, demand has increased slightly month-on-month, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. A new round of steel tenders has not started yet, and attention should be paid to the entry rhythm of steel mills. Both are expected to follow the rebound of the black series, but the upward trend lacks sustainability, and the valuation level is relatively low [17][18]. Summary by Variety Steel - **Rebar** - Price: The latest prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts are 3134, 3167, and 3206 respectively, with increases of 24, 50, and 52 [2]. - Basis: The latest basis of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts in Shanghai is 156, 123, and 84 respectively, with changes of 16, -10, and -12 [2]. - Spread: RB 10 - 01 is 72 with an increase of 28, RB 01 - 05 is -33 with a decrease of 26, and RB 05 - 10 is -39 with a decrease of 2 [2]. - Spot price: The latest spot prices in different regions range from 2990 to 3540 yuan/ton, with increases of 10 - 50 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot-rolled Coil** - Price: The latest prices of hot-rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts are 3327, 3320, and 3333 respectively, with increases of 25, 32, and 43 [2]. - Basis: The latest basis of hot-rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts in Shanghai is -17, -10, and -23 respectively, with changes of -5, -12, and -23 [2]. - Spread: HC 10 - 01 is 6 with an increase of 18, HC 01 - 05 is 7 with a decrease of 7, and HC 05 - 10 is -13 with a decrease of 11 [2]. - Spot price: The latest spot prices in different regions range from 3240 to 3350 yuan/ton, with increases of 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2]. Iron Ore - There is no specific price data provided in the text, but it is mentioned that the static fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, with steel mills destocking and port inventory increasing, and the shipment of foreign mines increasing while the arrival volume decreasing [6]. Coke - **Futures Market** - The latest prices of coke 1, 5, and 9 contracts are 1619.5, 1770, and 1833.5 respectively, with increases of 45, 39, and 36 [8]. - The 01, 05, and 09 basis are -103, -254, and -317 respectively, with decreases of 45, 39, and 36 [8]. - J01 - 05 is -150.5 with an increase of 6, J05 - 09 is -63.5 with an increase of 3, and J09 - 01 is 214 with a decrease of 9 [8]. - **Spot Market** - The latest spot prices range from 1380 to 1620 yuan/ton, with decreases of 0 - 50 yuan/ton [8]. - **Weekly Data** - The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises is 96%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons. The daily average coke production of sample coking plants is 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills is 46.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants is 71.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 625.5 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons. The inventory available days are 11.3 days, an increase of 0.2 days. The port coke inventory is 187.4 tons, a decrease of 5.6 tons. The profit per ton of independent coking enterprises is 46 yuan, an increase of 27 yuan [8]. Coking Coal - **Futures Market** - The latest prices of coking coal 1, 5, and 9 contracts are 1093, 1183, and 1245 respectively, with increases of 26, 31, and 24 [12]. - The 01, 05, and 09 basis are 252, 162, and 100 respectively, with decreases of 151, 156, and 149 [12]. - JM01 - 05 is -90 with a decrease of 5, JM05 - 09 is -62 with an increase of 7, and JM09 - 01 is 152 with a decrease of 2 [12]. - **Spot Market** - The latest spot prices range from 1190 to 1570 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 125 yuan/ton for Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal and no change for others [12]. - **Weekly Data** - The sample coal washing plant's operating rate is 61.5%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The daily average cleaned coal production of sample coal washing plants is 52.1 tons, with no change. The daily average coke production of sample coking plants is 50.4 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills is 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons. The coking coal inventory of sample coking plants is 860.9 tons, a decrease of 28.3 tons. The inventory available days are 12.8 days, a decrease of 0.6 days. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 801.3 tons, an increase of 4.2 tons. The inventory available days are 13 days, with no change. The total port coking coal inventory is 294.5 tons, an increase of 3 tons [12]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese** - **Futures Market** - The latest prices of ferromanganese 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5724, 5770, and 5832 respectively, with increases of 112, 104, and 100 [16]. - The 01, 05, and 09 basis in Inner Mongolia are 106, 60, and -2 respectively, with decreases of 82, 74, and 70 [16]. - SM 09 - 01 is 108 with a decrease of 12, SM 01 - 05 is -46 with an increase of 8, and SM 05 - 09 is -62 [16]. - **Spot Market** - The latest spot prices range from 5510 to 5550 yuan/ton, with increases of 20 - 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Weekly Data** - The ferromanganese enterprise operating rate is 38.09%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points. The output of 187 ferromanganese enterprises is 194,775 tons, a decrease of 2135 tons. The inventory of 63 ferromanganese enterprises is 368,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons [16]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Futures Market** - The latest prices of ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5420, 5428, and 5490 respectively, with increases of 44, 82, and 80 [16]. - The 01, 05, and 09 basis in Ningxia are 130, 122, and 70 respectively, with decreases of 44, 82, and 66 [16]. - SF 09 - 01 is 70 with an increase of 22, SF 01 - 05 is -8 with a decrease of 38, and SF 05 - 09 is -62 [16]. - **Spot Market** - The latest spot prices range from 5200 to 5250 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton for ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia and no change for others [16]. - **Weekly Data** - The ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate is 33.41%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is 107,200 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is 71,830 tons, a decrease of 1220 tons [16].