中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 继续关注市场交易情绪调整情况，此前的超买和超高的 VIX 指数情绪面临回归。基 | | | 等待企稳 | 本面短期对盘面影响不大，中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买 | | ★ | | 黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。关注调整幅度。 | | 白银 | | 短期博弈因素占主导，白银市场表现与基本面无关。尽管长期理由仍然存在供需缺 | | | 等待企稳 | 口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注。 | | ★ | | | | | | 美就业数据不佳，中美通电，美元指数反弹，市场充分计价兑现前期收储利好，铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 隔夜震荡回落，建议多单谨慎持有，移动止盈落袋，长期多单保持定力和耐心。 | | ★ | | | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 锌投机热度降温，随着春节长假临近，需求疲软，锌锭库存累库。短期建议暂时观 | | ★ | | 望，降低仓位，控制风险，等待更多宏观指引。 | | 铅 | 承压 | 目前国内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers individual ratings for each variety: - **Bearish**: Crude oil (Short - term bearish rebound), LPG (Cautiously bearish), L (Bearish consolidation), PP (Bearish consolidation), MEG (Cautiously bearish), Methanol (Cautiously bearish), Urea (Cautiously chase up), LNG (Cautiously bearish), Asphalt (Cautiously bearish) [1][2][4] - **Bullish**: PVC (Oscillating strongly), PTA (Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks) [1][26] - **Neutral**: Glass (Low - level oscillation), Soda Ash (Bearish consolidation) [4] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and seasonal factors. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks and trading strategies for each product, emphasizing the importance of risk management due to geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand changes. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Short - term bearish rebound, with long - term downward pressure due to supply surplus and seasonal demand weakness [1][7] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause price fluctuations. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the arrival of the demand off - season exerts downward pressure on prices. Key variables include US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term, pay attention to Middle East geopolitical progress. SC focus range: [465 - 480] [9] LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens as the geopolitical premium of oil prices declines. Chemical demand weakens, with a decrease in PDH operating rates. Although port inventories have decreased, the overall fundamentals are bearish [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price center is expected to continue to decline. Short - term, due to uncertainties in oil prices, the fundamentals are bearish. PG focus range: [4150 - 4250] [13] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [14] - **Main Logic**: Standard product devices are returning, leading to weaker basis and monthly spreads. The industry is slightly accumulating inventory, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended that the industry consider selling hedges on rallies. With the return of devices, production is expected to increase this week, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season [17] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] [17] PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [18] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances exist, and it follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The current supply - demand situation is weak, with a 22% parking ratio, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are low, providing cost support [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [6650 - 6850] [21] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - **Core View**: Oscillating strongly [22] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation and export rush support near - month prices, with stronger basis and monthly spreads. Although the short - term export situation is good, the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [25] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [5000 - 5200] [25] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - **Core View**: Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks [26] - **Main Logic**: Valuation has been repaired, with improved processing fees. Supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. PX supply - demand is in a weak balance. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the outlook is positive [27] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 05 contract and consider buying on pullbacks. TA05 focus range: [5110 - 5230] [27] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [28] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation has been repaired, but supply - demand is weakening. Domestic device operating rates have increased, overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, and port inventories are rising. Downstream demand is seasonally weak [29] - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 focus range: [3710 - 3810] [30] Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: The main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months. Domestic device operating rates are high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. Demand has weakened significantly, but there is short - term bullish support due to geopolitical conflicts and rising overseas natural gas costs [33] - **Strategy**: The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is weak. Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. MA05 focus range: [2235 - 2295] [35] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously chase up [2] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strong. The overall operating load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short - term but is expected to weaken during the holiday season. The export situation is relatively good, but the spread of the arbitrage window has narrowed [37] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up. UR05 focus range: [1770 - 1800] [39] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [40] - **Main Logic**: The impact of the cold wave on gas prices has weakened. Although the demand for heating in winter provides support, the supply is relatively sufficient, putting pressure on gas prices [43] - **Strategy**: NG focus range: [3.370 - 3.665] [44] Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [45] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause oil price fluctuations. The supply - demand of asphalt is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost is affected by the supply of Venezuelan crude oil [48] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the import situation of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about risks due to geopolitical uncertainties. BU focus range: [3300 - 3400] [49] Glass - **Core View**: Low - level oscillation [50] - **Main Logic**: The suspension of coal exports from Indonesia has pushed up coal prices, and the basis has weakened. The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand situation, with high - level inventory slightly decreasing. The daily melting volume has increased, and supply reduction is needed to digest inventory [53] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair is realized. FG focus range: [1070 - 1120] [53] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [54] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand changes are small, and it rebounds weakly following the cost. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The second - phase 2.8 - million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and short - term device maintenance has increased, putting pressure on supply [57] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further maintenance intensifies. SA focus range: [1190 - 1240] [57]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比略降，产量在利润支撑下回升，库存继续累积。铁水产量变化不大，钢厂 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 利润总体一般，原料价格偏高抑制钢厂补库积极性。钢材供需层面矛盾有限，宏观情绪 | | | | 阶段性偏强，中期维持区间运行。 | | | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有下降，绝对水平偏高。在产量较低，需求稳健的状 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 态下，冬储累库压力或不大。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对 | | ★ | | 行情形成压制，短期宏观氛围偏暖，中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 钢厂进口矿库存水平明显上升，补库还将持续，但幅度缩小，铁水环比小幅回落，外矿 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 发货继续增加，铁矿基本面中性略偏弱，价格或承压。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，市场对第二轮提涨存在分歧。近期焦企亏损程度略有减轻，受生产 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 惯性短期焦企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略降。从需求来看，铁水产量变化不大，下 | | | | 游维持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), the rating is cautiously bullish [1] - For iron ore, the rating is cautiously bearish [1] - For coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon, the ratings are all cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel products: The supply-demand contradiction in the steel market is limited. The macro sentiment is temporarily strong, and the prices are expected to move within a range in the medium term [1][5] - Iron ore: The inventory of imported ore in steel mills has significantly increased, but the pace of restocking will slow down. The iron ore fundamentals are slightly weak, and prices may face pressure [1][7] - Coke: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there is a divergence in the market regarding the second round. The production enthusiasm of coke enterprises is fair in the short term, and the price is expected to move within a range [1][10] - Coking coal: The domestic coal supply is decreasing, and the import volume has recovered to a high level. The supply will gradually tighten before the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to move within a range [1][13] - Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon: The supply of ferromanganese is basically stable, and the demand has improved marginally. The supply of ferrosilicon has increased slightly, and the demand has also improved. New steel tenders are underway, and the prices are expected to move within a range [1][16] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Demand has decreased slightly month-on-month, production has increased supported by profits, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The profit of steel mills is average, and high raw material prices suppress the enthusiasm for restocking [1][4] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory has slightly decreased but the absolute level is high. The pressure of winter stockpiling may be small, and the spot is relatively weak with the basis fluctuating around parity [1][4] Iron Ore - Steel mills' import ore inventory has increased significantly, restocking will continue but at a slower pace. Iron ore production has decreased slightly month-on-month, and the shipment of foreign ore has continued to increase. The fundamentals are slightly weak [1][7] Coke - The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there is a divergence in the market regarding the second round. The loss of coke enterprises has slightly decreased, production enthusiasm is fair in the short term, supply has decreased slightly month-on-month, and downstream demand remains stable [1][10] Coking Coal - Domestic coal supply has decreased month-on-month, and there are more shutdowns as the Spring Festival approaches. The import volume has recovered to a high level, and the price of raw coal at the port has slightly decreased. Downstream restocking is on an as-needed basis [1][13] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferromanganese**: Supply in the production area is basically stable, demand has improved marginally, and inventory has increased slightly. New steel tenders are underway, and the tender prices are mostly around 5,850 yuan/ton [1][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the main production area has increased slightly, demand has improved marginally, and inventory has changed little. The final tender price of a landmark steel mill is 5,760 yuan/ton, the same as in January [1][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Wait for stabilization. Continue to monitor the adjustment of market trading sentiment, with the previous overbought condition and high VIX index sentiment expected to normalize. Fundamentals have little short - term impact on the market, but in the long - term, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, uncertainties persist, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its long - term strategic allocation value. Pay attention to the adjustment range [1]. - Silver: Wait for stabilization. Short - term game factors dominate, and the silver market's performance is unrelated to fundamentals. Although there has been a supply - demand gap for 5 consecutive years and global large - scale fiscal policies are favorable for silver in the long run, the market will continue to adjust in the short term [1]. - Copper: Hold for the long - term. The relaxation of macro - sentiment, the strong rebound of precious metals, and the suggestion from the non - ferrous metals association to include copper concentrates in the reserve system have stimulated the copper price to strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, take profits by moving stop - losses, and maintain patience for long - term positions [1]. - Zinc: Rebound is under pressure. With the relaxation of macro - sentiment and the strong rebound of precious metals, most of the non - ferrous sectors are in the green, but the speculative heat of zinc has cooled, and its price has turned red. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak, and zinc ingot inventories are accumulating. It is recommended to temporarily observe, reduce positions, control risks, and wait for more macro - guidance [1]. - Lead: Under pressure. Domestic lead smelting is in a loss state, terminal consumer market demand has not improved, downstream enterprises only make rigid - demand purchases, and lead ingot social inventories are accumulating, so the lead price is under pressure in the short term [1]. - Tin: Stabilize. The supply disturbance from overseas tin mines has weakened. Currently, domestic smelters' production is relatively stable, but downstream replenishment demand is suppressed by high prices, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The tin price shows a slight stabilizing trend in the short term [1]. - Aluminum: Stabilize. Overseas bauxite quotes are falling, keeping the alumina cost low. Currently, the domestic aluminum downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories are accumulating. The aluminum price shows a slight stabilizing trend in the short term [1]. - Nickel: Stabilize. The expectation of supply contraction from Indonesian nickel mines has been digested. The situation of high domestic nickel inventories and weak consumption continues, and the inventory of downstream stainless steel has also increased slightly month - on - month. The nickel price shows a slight stabilizing trend in the short term [1]. - Industrial silicon: Wide - range oscillation. Demand has weakened significantly in February. The operating rates in the southwest, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia on the supply side have changed little. Mainly focus on the production cuts of leading large enterprises. If the cuts are implemented effectively, it is expected to drive inventory reduction, and it is advisable to go long on dips [1]. - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation at the supply - demand level, and with the increase in futures market warehouse receipts, the futures contract has declined. However, a meeting was held again yesterday to study the next - step anti - involution in the industry, and the spot quotation has been raised, driving the futures market up [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation. Total inventories have been decreasing for 3 consecutive weeks, and production has declined. Stricter supervision and the sharp decline in the non - ferrous metals sector have dampened market sentiment. The main lithium carbonate contract has been limit - down for two consecutive days, with volatility reaching a new high. Participation should be cautious [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Both domestic and foreign spot and futures markets for gold and silver have rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability needs to be observed. The SHFE gold price is 1093.78, down 5.82% from the previous value and 7.79% from last week; the COMEX gold price is 4971, up 6.19% from the previous value but down 8.14% from last week. The SHFE silver price is 21446, down 23.25% from the previous value and 26.60% from last week; the COMEX silver price is 85, up 7.13% from the previous value but down 26.66% from last week [3]. - **Core Logic**: The recent sharp decline in precious metals is a technical position clearance in a high - volatility environment, not a fundamental reversal of the long - term logic. Wall Street institutions believe that the three pillars supporting the gold price are still solid, but in the short term, the market needs time to digest volatility and wait for speculative positions to return to a reasonable level. The gold price may find support around $4600, and a new pricing range of $4500 - $5500 is being formed [4]. - **Future Outlook**: Three variables will determine the gold price trend: the Fed's policy path, the unpredictability of Trump's policies, and the progress of AI technology. Domestically, pay attention to the performance of gold around 1100 and silver around 21000 [5]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract has strengthened in an oscillatory manner. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 105180 yuan/ton, up 3.49% from the previous day; the LME copper price is 13410 US dollars/ton, up 3.95% from the previous day; the COMEX copper price is 609.45 US dollars/pound, up 4.49% from the previous day [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Global copper mines remain in short supply, with strikes in Chilean copper mines exacerbating the shortage. Domestic smelters are expected to reduce production capacity by 10% in 2026, and refined copper supply will slow down marginally. During the off - season of demand, the export window is open, and the C - L spread has converged. However, COMEX copper inventories continue to accumulate. Demand from power, new energy vehicles, and big data centers is on the rise [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the relaxation of macro - sentiment and the stimulus of industrial policies, the copper price is strengthening in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, take profits by moving stop - losses, and maintain patience for long - term positions. In the medium - to - long - term, be optimistic about copper due to the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [102500, 106500] yuan/ton, and the LME copper in the range of [12800, 13800] US dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract has declined under pressure. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24805 yuan/ton, down 0.40% from the previous day; the LME zinc price is 3323 US dollars/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day [9]. - **Industry Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic zinc ingot production is expected to increase in January. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. Although traditional real estate and infrastructure drag on zinc demand, emerging fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics are expected to make up for part of the gap [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it is recommended to reduce positions, control risks, and wait for more macro - guidance. In the medium - to - long - term, buy on dips on corrections, as global resource protectionism is accelerating, and the supply stability of important mineral resources is facing challenges. The Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [24200, 25200] yuan/ton, and the LME zinc in the range of [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The aluminum price has rebounded slightly, while the alumina price has faced pressure in its rebound. The LME aluminum price is 3099 US dollars/ton, up 1.39% from the previous value; the Shanghai aluminum main contract price is 23810 yuan/ton, up 3.36% from the previous value [12]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2026, the expectation of Fed rate cuts continues. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but inventories are increasing. The domestic aluminum downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and the industry's start - up rate has declined. Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, and the alumina industry's inventory pressure still exists, but the oversupply situation has slightly improved [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits and observe in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventories. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of [22000 - 24500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The nickel price has rebounded slightly, and the stainless steel price has also rebounded. The LME nickel price is 17395 US dollars/ton, up 2.05% from the previous value; the Shanghai nickel main contract price is 135430 yuan/ton, up 4.40% from the previous value [15]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2026, the expectation of Fed rate cuts continues. Indonesia has significantly reduced its nickel ore production target in 2026, and supply - related disturbances are frequent. Domestic pure nickel inventories are accumulating, and the downstream stainless steel market is in a seasonal off - season, with inventories slightly increasing [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits and observe, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of [120000 - 150000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and went high, rising more than 4% [19]. - **Industry Logic**: Domestic lithium salt plant start - up rates and production have both declined. The issue of mica mining licenses has intensified the expectation of supply tightness. Near the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises may start stocking up, and the adjustment of export tax - rebate policies will make the material factories show characteristics of an off - season not being off. Total inventories have been decreasing for 3 consecutive weeks, but regulatory risks are high [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to increased regulatory risks and the risk of a stampede, it is advisable to hold positions cautiously in the range of [14300 - 155000] [21].

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘反复拉扯，油价反弹。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，美伊谈判仍有较大 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过剩格局仍 | | ★ | | 未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页岩油产量 | | | | 变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘缓和，成本端油价回落，液化气跟随油价回落。成本端油价短期 | | LPG | | 受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利好；供需方面， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存 | | | | 在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 标品装置陆续回归，仓单增加，基本面偏空，短期产业可关注逢高套保机 | | | 空头盘整 | 会。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增加，农膜需求淡季，基差跌 | | ★ | | 至同期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | | 地缘扰动仍存，短期跟随成本震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. Brazil is in the early stage of soybean harvest, with expected record - high production. US soybeans fell due to export decline expectations, and domestic soybean meal continued to decline with inventory accumulation. However, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis strengthened. Be cautious about further shorting, and pay attention to February rainfall in Argentine soybean regions [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment. The entry of the first batch of Australian rapeseeds into crushing and stable Sino - Canadian trade reduced market bullish sentiment. Coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory broke the previous zero state, and the decline in soybean meal further expanded the decline of rapeseed meal. It shows a second - dip trend in the short term. Focus on subsequent rapeseed procurement and US - Canada trade progress [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term adjustment. Indonesia's plan to ban the export of used cooking oil and palm waste supported palm oil prices, but the January Malaysian palm oil export data was average, with a risk of inventory accumulation in January. Be cautious about going long, and pay attention to January Malaysian palm oil inventory estimates and the US - Iran situation [1][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term adjustment. Brazil's soybean harvest is in the early stage, with expected production increase, which is bearish for the market. Coupled with the weakening of crude oil, soybean oil continued to decline slightly. Pay attention to the Malaysian palm oil situation and Argentine weather [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term adjustment. The crushing of Australian rapeseeds in China alleviated the tight supply in South China, but downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the basis has weakened. The Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy is unclear. Rapeseed oil futures prices rebounded slightly following palm oil. Focus on rapeseed imports and US - Canada trade progress [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillatory adjustment. The US cotton market declined due to external commodities and a stronger US dollar. It has been in low - level consolidation since 2025, and the new - cotton narrative in 2026 is expected to start after the first quarter. In China, new - cotton processing is basically completed, and raw - material inventory is being depleted at a moderate pace. The import side faces price - difference pressure, and domestic demand is in a weakening stage. In the short term, the upward drive is weak, but there is a strong expectation in the medium - long term. Continuously monitor the linkage between domestic and foreign cotton and the inventory depletion situation in the first half of the year [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Under pressure. Spot performance is flat. With the peak of new - product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, futures price fluctuations increase. High inventory depletion is accelerating, which may drive a short - term rebound. However, in a supply - demand loose pattern, the overall trend is expected to be bearish with occasional rebounds. Pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities during the cold - season peak [1][16]. - **Hogs**: Oscillatory and weakening. In the context of high supply and demand in February, there may be short - term price rebounds in some regions, but they lack a sustainable basis. Near - month contracts are prone to decline due to weak supply - demand and delivery logic, so pay attention to low - level risk control. Far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trend due to poor capacity reduction. Focus on short - term long - allocation and rebound opportunities [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 0.84% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3168.57 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis strengthened. The export decline expectation led to a fall in US soybeans, and domestic inventory accumulation pressured the market [2][4]. - **Brazilian Situation**: As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, 5 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than last year's 9%. Multiple institutions predict record - high Brazilian soybean production in 2025/26 [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2249 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2562.63 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. Coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the market sentiment was bearish [5][7]. - **Supply Situation**: China has completed the customs clearance of at least one ship of Australian rapeseeds and is expected to start crushing this week. Chinese crushers have also ordered Canadian rapeseeds and rapeseed meal for shipment in the coming months [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9094 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average price was 9100 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased, and the import cost increased. The inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of bullish views increased [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Indonesia's export ban plan supported prices, but the January Malaysian palm oil export data was average, with a risk of inventory accumulation. India's palm oil imports reached a four - month high in January [9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Domestic cotton futures prices generally rose slightly, and US cotton prices declined slightly. The spot price decreased slightly, and the basis of some contracts weakened. The textile enterprise's profit decreased, and the demand of spinning and weaving enterprises declined [10]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Internationally, Brazil and Turkey are expected to reduce cotton production in 2026. In China, new - cotton processing is basically completed, inventory is being depleted, and import volume increased in December. However, domestic demand is in a weakening stage [11][12][13]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: Futures prices rose slightly, and most spot prices remained stable. The basis of some contracts weakened, and the arrival volume in the Guangdong market decreased. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of the spot market is stable, and the inventory depletion has accelerated. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, the futures price fluctuations increase [15][16]. Hogs - **Market Situation**: Futures prices generally declined, and the national average slaughter price decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased. The slaughter profit improved, and the frozen - product storage rate decreased [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In January, the breeding side slightly exceeded the plan, and the supply in the south is relatively sufficient. In February, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased, but the daily - average pressure increased. The demand increased during the pre - holiday period, and the overall profit remained above 0 yuan/head [18].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比略降，产量在利润支撑下回升，库存继续累积。铁水产量变化不大，钢厂 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 利润总体一般，原料价格偏高抑制钢厂补库积极性。钢材供需层面矛盾有限，宏观情绪 阶段性偏强，中期维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有下降，绝对水平偏高。在产量较低，需求稳健的状 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 态下，冬储累库压力或不大。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对 行情形成压制，短期宏观氛围偏暖，中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 钢厂库存水平明显上升，补库还将持续，但幅度缩小，铁水环比小幅回落，铁矿基本面 | | ★ | 暂且观望 | 中性，价格窄幅运行。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，市场对第二轮提涨存在分歧。近期焦企亏损程度略有减轻，受生产 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 惯性短期焦企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略降。从需求来看，铁水产量变化不大，下 游维持按需采购。预计短期维持区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 国内煤矿供应量环比下 ...

金银：国内情绪性跌势远大于外部 中辉有色观点 | I | 1000 - 1000 6 1 | | | 15 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11 | No | 1 | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 市场关注交易情绪层面，早已超买和超高的 VIX 指数情绪被浇灭，金银飞流直下三 | | | 等待降波 | 千尺。基本面短期对盘面影响不大，中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央 | | ★ | | 行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。本周关注调整幅度 | | | | 此前提示白银交易太过于拥挤，这一天回来，近日调整甚是惨烈。尽管长期理由仍 | | 白银 | 等待企稳 | 然存在供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利），但是短期市场会沉浸 | | ★★ | | 在悲观情绪中，保持关注。 | | | | 美国制造业 PMI 超预期，提振市场风险偏好，但随着长假临近，中下游需求疲软叠 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 加投机多头获利了结意愿强烈，短期建议降低仓位控 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西正进入大豆收割初期阶段，预计产量将创历史新高。交易商预计，在近期美豆 | | 豆粕 | | 大量购买后，未来几个月巴西供应将受青睐。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所上周四表 | | ★ | 短线遇阻回落 | 示，阿根廷西部主要农业区近期降雨改善了土壤墒情，也进一步对美豆施压。国内 | | | | 豆粕昨日跟随美豆收跌。但现货基差方面维持平稳，或限制豆粕跌幅。后市关注阿 | | | | 根廷大豆地区 2 月降雨情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽库存处低位，进口菜粕库存持续下降，市场可售货源偏紧，菜粕价格 | | 菜粕 | 反弹高位回落 | 偏坚挺，基差走强。但首批澳籽进入压榨，且中加贸易暂无新变速，市场看多情绪 | | ★ | | 回落。叠加豆粕端下跌，昨日菜粕收跌。关注后续加籽采购进展情况，关注美加贸 | | | | 易进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 有迹象表明美国和伊朗愿意举行会谈，原油大跌，叠加马棕榈油 1 月已公布的出口 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 数据表现一般，马棕榈油收跌。昨日棕榈油跟随大幅收跌。关注 1 ...