| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 供需方面，铁水产量环比微降，绝对水平仍高，螺纹产量及表观需求环比上升，库存有 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 所增加。建筑钢材成交低位运行，整体仍体现淡季特征。唐山独立轧钢企业阅兵期间停 产，供应端政策继续扰动市场，短期或有走强。【3190，3250】 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。热卷出口利润回落明显，后期 | | | 谨慎看多 | 出口或受一定影响。宏观强预期对下方形成支撑，唐山阅兵期间限产消息或刺激短期有 | | ★ | | 所走强。【3400，3460】 | | 铁矿石 | | 基本面看，铁水产量再降。港口、钢厂库存同增，钢厂低库存补库带动阶段性价格坚挺。 | | ★ | 短多参与 | 基本面主导下，矿价偏强。【770，810】 | | | | 焦炭现货已有五轮提涨，焦企利润边际有所改善，绝对水平仍然有限，生产积极性一般。 | | 焦炭 ★ | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭供需总体相对平衡，产量及库存偏稳运行，变化不大。近期煤炭限产减产等消息再 | | | | ...

Report Title - "20250809 Cotton Weekly Report: As the Golden September and Silver October Approach, Focus on Short - Long Opportunities Before the New Cotton Goes on the Market" [1] Core View - With the approaching of the Golden September and Silver October, attention should be paid to short - long opportunities before the new cotton goes on the market. Compared with the June forecast, the data adjustment this time is bearish, with the increase in production exceeding that in consumption, leading to an expected increase in global ending inventory in the new year. However, there may be further room for adjustment in China's production, and the optimistic global consumption forecast may lead to a further increase in ending inventory [4][5] Cotton Supply and Demand Balance (July) Production - In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to increase by 311,000 tons month - on - month to 2.578 million tons. China's production is expected to increase by 218,000 tons to 674,900 tons, the US by 131,000 tons to 304,800 tons, and Pakistan's production is expected to decrease by 44,000 tons to 108,900 tons [4] Consumption - Global consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 78,000 tons month - on - month to 2.5718 million tons. Pakistan's consumption is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 237,300 tons [5] Trade - Global imports and exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to decline slightly by 20,000 - 30,000 tons month - on - month. China's imports are expected to decrease by 152,000 tons to 126,300 tons, and Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 131,000 tons to 128,400 tons [5] Ending Inventory - Global ending inventory in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 113,000 tons month - on - month to 1.6833 million tons. China's ending inventory is expected to increase by 11,000 tons to 807,000 tons, and the US's by 65,000 tons to 100,100 tons [5] Cotton and Yarn Spot and Futures Cotton Spot and Futures - Cotton prices increased during the week, and the basis was relatively strong [6] Yarn Spot and Futures - Yarn prices were weak during the week, and the terminal's price - holding ability was poor [11] Supply Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory - This week, the national industrial and commercial cotton inventory decreased by 150,400 tons to 2.8637 million tons, lower than the same period by 97,100 tons. The available days of pure - cotton yarn inventory increased by 0.06 days to 31.93 days, and the terminal grey fabric inventory increased by 0.42 days to 30.99 days. The finished product replenishment speed slowed down further [14] Imported Cotton and Yarn - In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the cumulative import was about 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 74.3%. In June, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.1% and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons [16] Cotton Warehouse Receipts - As of August 8, the registered cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou decreased by 432 to 8,252, with 330 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,582, equivalent to 343,280 tons of cotton. As cotton prices stabilized after falling, the willingness of some cotton - using enterprises to take over warehouse receipts at low prices increased [18] Demand Factory Operation Rate and Profit - This week, the spinning mill operation rate decreased by 0.9% to 65.7%, and the weaving mill operation rate decreased by 0.1% to 37%. The spinning mill orders decreased by 0.49 days to 6.84 days. The on - the - spot profit of the mainstream yarn in the inland increased to - 1,595.8 yuan/ton, and the expected profit of enterprises in Xinjiang recovered to 400 yuan/ton [20] Market Transactions - This week, the total turnover in the Light Textile City decreased by 282,000 meters to 4.622 million meters, and the cotton cloth turnover decreased by 60,000 meters to 170,000 meters. In Keqiao, the accessory price decreased by 2.29 to 114.15, and the fabric price increased by 1.46 to 112.12 [23] Social Consumption - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the cumulative total was 2.45458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles of enterprises above the designated size in June reached 127.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [24] Export Situation - From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 170.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July, the export was 26.77 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 2%. In June, China's clothing and textile exports to the US increased, while those to the EU and ASEAN showed different trends [27][33] Industry PMI - In June, the cotton textile industry PMI decreased by 1.95% to 47.71%, remaining below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New order PMI increased by 3.15% to 44.68%, and the operation rate PMI increased by 1.04% to 52.13%. The yarn inventory PMI increased by 12.74% to 63.83%, and the cotton inventory increased by 3.29% to 48.94% [35] CFTC Position Data - The net short positions of non - commercial and fund investors increased slightly [36]

Report Investment Ratings - **Beans and Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Jujube**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - **Beans and Meal**: Amid the interplay of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it shows a large - range oscillation. This week, there was inventory reduction, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased month - on - month, which is bullish. However, there is a risk of an upward adjustment in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious about chasing long positions. Focus on the next USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Under the influence of multiple long and short factors, it presents a large - range market. Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a yield reduction in Canada. The import of rapeseed from August to October is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. But the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit exerts downward pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather, yield estimates, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian developments [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption outlook of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. However, there may be inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July, which could suppress short - term prices. Consider the support of biodiesel policies and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Also, pay attention to domestic palm oil purchases in the past three months and beware of the risk of short - term squeeze [1][10]. - **Cotton**: The moisture condition in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. The ICE market is expected to move in a narrow range. In China, the guaranteed output of new cotton has increased, and the high - temperature risk has been lifted, but the risk of rainy days in the future needs attention. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and there is no quota issuance at the import end, providing short - term support. The downstream may gradually enter the stocking period, and there is an expected marginal improvement in the spinning mill's operating rate and future orders. Before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited, and it is advisable to establish long positions on dips [1][14]. - **Jujube**: There are still significant differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and the possibility of an over - expected reduction is still in doubt, with speculation risks remaining. High - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final output is determined. It is recommended to be cautious and try long positions [1][17]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of short - term sales rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs. However, the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still drives some second - fattening speculation, so the near - term contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises may help the far - term contracts rise. The overall situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". Continue to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips for far - term contracts [1][20]. Summary by Directory Beans and Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, and the bean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main bean meal contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,015.43 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons [7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2,773 yuan/ton, up 1.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,725.26 yuan/ton, up 1.07% [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 3,400 tons [9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,108 yuan/ton, up 1.26% [8]. Cotton - **Inventory Data**: The cotton commercial inventory dropped to 2.0067 million tons, 210,000 tons lower than the same period. The inventory depletion has not significantly slowed down [13]. - **Price Data**: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 decreased by 0.22% to 13,640 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.10% to 15,193 yuan/ton [11][12]. Jujube - **Inventory Data**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and 4,379 tons higher than the same period [16]. - **Price Data**: The main jujube contract CJ2601 increased by 3.59% to 11,540 yuan/ton [16]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Output Data**: In August, the planned output of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.26%. The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 37.6332 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and the output was 10.9168 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18][19]. - **Price Data**: The main live - pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.96% to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [18][19].

沪铜周报 需求淡季库存回流，铜反弹乏力 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-08-08 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 周度总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】宏观进入窗口期，美元走弱，特朗普铜关税TACO叠加需求淡季，非美铜 库存累增，铜反弹乏力，中美贸易协定隐含变数，警惕中美关系带来冲击 【策略展望】 短期铜精矿干扰和美元疲软帮助铜止跌反弹，但需求淡季叠加海内外库存累库限制了 铜反弹空间，铜或需要再次下蹲蓄力。铜宏观属性强过工业属性，价格韧性强，建议 纵使看空也不要轻易做空，建议等待回调轻仓试多。如果中美谈判出现波折，铜可能 测试77500附近支撑，反之宏观情绪好转，铜价将获得提振。中长期看，中美博弈进 入新阶段，全球铜矿紧张难以缓解，铜作为重要战略资源，对铜长期看涨。沪铜关注 区间【77500，80500】，伦铜关注区间【9550，9850】美元/吨 【操作策略】 策略：回调试多 【风险提示】 政策不及预期，需求不足，中美关系 4 工作计划安排 WOR ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The terminal demand for lithium carbonate is approaching the peak season, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to have higher upward elasticity in the short - term. Although the supply pressure has not been significantly relieved, factors such as the peak season of terminal demand and the upward shift of the raw material price center provide support for the price increase. There may be a phased supply - demand mismatch, and attention should be paid to the results of mining license approvals [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Situation - In July 2025, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1%. The total imports and exports of high - tech products in the first seven months increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Rare earth exports decreased by 23% month - on - month, soybean imports reached a record high, and iron ore imports remained above 100 million tons for three consecutive months. The auction of 30 - year US Treasury bonds was dismal, and long - term Treasury yields generally rose. The US ISM Services PMI in July was only 50.1, the employment index contracted, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022. A September interest rate cut is almost a certainty, and the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected [3]. Supply Side - This week, the production of lithium carbonate increased significantly, reaching a new high for the year. There were many news about the supply side this week, with enterprises in various regions increasing production and new production capacities being put into operation normally. In July 2025, Chile exported 13,632 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month - on - month increase of 33.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.48% [3]. Demand Side - According to data released by the Passenger Car Association, in July, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.826 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.4%. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market in July were 987,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.2%. The cumulative growth rate of domestic car sales this year has continuously increased from 1.2% from January to February to 10.8% from January to June, showing a high - base deceleration feature in July [3]. Cost and Profit - This week, the price of the mining end increased month - on - month. The quotation of African SC 5% was 530 US dollars per ton, an increase of 15 US dollars per ton compared with last week; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 765 US dollars per ton, an increase of 35 US dollars per ton compared with last week; the market price of lithium mica was 2,100 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged compared with last week. As of August 8, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 63,155 yuan per ton, a decrease of 232 yuan compared with last week, and the profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 5,979 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,388 yuan [4][48]. Total Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,418 tons, an increase of 692 tons compared with last week, of which the inventory of upstream smelters was 50,999 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 959 tons. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week, but the spot and futures prices formed a positive feedback, and the peak season for downstream restocking drove the transfer of upstream inventory to the downstream [5][31]. Market Review - As of August 8, LC2511 closed at 76,960 yuan per ton, an increase of 12% compared with last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.38% compared with last week, and the basis discount widened. The position of the main contract was 320,000. This week, the main contract first declined and then rose, stabilizing and rising after the contract change within the week. The fundamentals improved marginally, with both production and inventory decreasing, and the spodumene price at the cost end also provided certain support. The positive feedback between spot and futures prices drove the improvement of the inventory structure, and upstream smelters continued to reduce inventory [7]. Production Volume - As of August 8, the production of lithium carbonate was 20,358 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,120 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 47.31%, a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. Although some individual enterprises were shut down for maintenance, enterprises in other regions were still increasing production. The issue of mining licenses in Jiangxi has not been finalized, and there are many market rumors about Ningde's Jianxiawo Mine. The increase in exports from Chile in July will also increase the supply pressure, and attention should be paid to whether the subsequent production will decline [9]. Other Product Production and Inventory - **Lithium hydroxide**: As of August 8, the production of lithium hydroxide was 5,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 165 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 35.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63%. This week, the supply of lithium hydroxide enterprises recovered slightly, the market stably executed long - term contracts, and the downstream ternary material factories had phased restocking needs, boosting market trading activity [11]. - **Lithium iron phosphate**: As of August 8, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 69,684 tons, a month - on - month increase of 436 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 61.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. As the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season is approaching, downstream battery cell factories are stocking up in advance, driving up the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, and the demand on the power side has increased significantly. All enterprises that reduced production in July have returned to normal production levels [13]. - **Ternary materials**: The downstream demand for ternary materials has increased significantly, and the operating rate of leading enterprises has increased [15]. - **Other cathode materials**: The demand for other cathode materials shows structural differentiation, and downstream orders are advanced [23]. Cost and Profit of Other Products - **Lithium hydroxide**: As of August 8, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 62,210 yuan per ton, an increase of 568 yuan compared with last week, and the profit of the lithium hydroxide industry was 3,635 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,473 yuan. This week, the strong price increase of lithium carbonate and the raw material end provided certain support for lithium hydroxide. However, the actual downstream transactions of lithium hydroxide were limited, the market was waiting and watching, the price increase was lower than that of the raw material end, and the industry profit margin was limited [51]. - **Lithium iron phosphate**: As of August 8, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 33,886 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged compared with last week, and the loss of lithium iron phosphate was 992 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged compared with last week. The significant increase in the price of lithium carbonate at the raw material end has raised the theoretical cost of lithium iron phosphate, but material factories have no pricing power, the quotation of lithium iron phosphate has increased slightly, and the processing fee has remained unchanged. The proportion of customer - supplied and long - term contract orders in the market is relatively high, and the profit is weakly stable and still in a loss state [54]. - **Ternary materials and others**: The quotation of downstream products fluctuates with raw materials, and the profit margin is marginally repaired [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting "Buy on Dips" [1] - Silver: ★★, recommending "Buy on Rebounds" [1] - Copper: ★★★, indicating "Hold Long Positions" [1] - Zinc: ★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Lead: ★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Tin: ★★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Aluminum: ★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Nickel: ★★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, "Bullish" [1] Core Views - Gold and silver prices are affected by factors such as US - Russia summit, US policies, and central bank gold purchases. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended, and silver has a long - term upward trend [1][2][3][4] - Copper prices are boosted by overseas copper concentrate disruptions, a weak US dollar, and better - than - expected domestic exports. Short - term long positions should be held, and long - term optimism is maintained [1][7][8] - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Short - term cautious bullishness is advised, and long - term opportunities to short at high prices should be grasped [1][10][11] - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to the off - season effect and weak downstream demand. Short - term shorting on rebounds is recommended [1][14][15] - Nickel prices face pressure on rebounds due to increasing supply and high inventory. Shorting on rebounds is suggested [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate prices are supported by short - term fundamentals, funds, and sentiment. Long positions should be held [1][22][23] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices are at a high level due to factors such as the upcoming Putin - Trump meeting and continuous central bank gold purchases [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US gold tariff issue, high global tariffs, and the upcoming US - Russia summit affect gold prices. In the long - term, the logic of a gold bull market remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, there is clear support for gold at around 770, and silver is in a trading range of 9100 - 9350. Long - term long positions are recommended [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, testing the pressure level of 79,000 [7] - **Industrial Logic**: There have been continuous disruptions in copper concentrates globally, and domestic copper production has increased. The spot market is tight in the short - term, but downstream demand is weak due to the off - season and high prices [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions should be held, and long - term optimism is maintained. Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [78000, 80500], and London copper in the range of [9650, 9950] USD/ton [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: London zinc oscillated strongly, while Shanghai zinc traded in a narrow range [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. Demand from downstream industries shows mixed performance [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term cautious bullishness is advised, and long - term opportunities to short at high prices should be grasped. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [22400, 23000], and London zinc in the range of [2780, 2880] USD/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices declined again [13] - **Industrial Logic**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased in July, and inventory increased. Downstream demand is weak. Overseas bauxite imports are high, and alumina supply is expected to be loose [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term shorting on rebounds is recommended, and attention should be paid to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20000, 20900] [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [17] - **Industrial Logic**: Nickel ore prices in the Philippines are weak, and domestic refined nickel production increased. Stainless steel inventory pressure re - emerged during the off - season [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Shorting on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel is recommended, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [119000, 122000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 increased in price with increasing positions, rising by more than 5% [21] - **Industrial Logic**: Terminal demand is about to enter the peak season, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. Production increased, and inventory increased slightly [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long positions should be held in the range of [75000, 81000] [23]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | | 供给压力不断上升，油价中枢继续下移。油价进入旺季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐 | | | 谨慎看空 | 扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，但下降空间在逐渐缩小， | | ★ | | 重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略：空单止盈，暂时观 | | | | 望。SC【490-505】 | | | | 液化气估值偏低，持仓升至近期高位，反弹动力上升。成本端油价偏弱，成本端 | | LPG | 谨慎看多 | 利空；基差处于高位，估值中性偏低；下游化工需求尚可，PDH 开工率 70%左 | | ★ | | 右；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅上升，港口库存上升。策略：轻仓试 | | | | 多。PG【3750-3850】 | | L | | 现货价格连续上涨，基差走强。近期多数装置陆续重启，国内外价差扩大，转口 意愿提升，供给压力边际增加，社会库存连续 6 周累库。但农膜旺季即将开始， | | | 谨慎看空 | | | ★ | | 开工率连续 3 周上行，关注补库节奏。绝对价 ...

宏观金银周报 •国内数据喜忧参半，海外降息预期增加，金银走高 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 2025年8月8日 王维芒 资格编号：Z0000148 摘要 【市场海外宏观】本周资本市场受中国反内卷、治理通缩等政策影响，工业品短暂调整过 后，本周继续明显走高。美国通胀预期较高，就业市场离奇疲软，但消费者信心走高。关税 基本落地，扰动边际递减，影响小于4月份结果 【国内经济表现】7月国内PMI数据回落，不过进出口数据表现韧性。房地产市场何时止跌 需要继续关注。后续关注中美关税谈判结果，以及抢出口的连续性。 【金银近期策略】美国降息预期走高，美欧等关税风险影响逐渐消退，短期盘面或强势震 荡。考虑到短期缺乏风险因素集中爆发，黄金大幅冲破前高的概率较低，在此位置不建议短 线追多，等待破区间高点或者向下回调再做短线单子入场打算。中长期多国货币政策宽松预 期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低，长期黄金继续战略配置，【770-796】。白 银跟随黄金情绪积极，中长期来看，白银基本面受到经济需求支撑，各国宽财政刺激，工业 需求坚挺，长期向上趋势不变。【9100-9360】。 【风险提示】关税 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Silicon Manganese (SM)**: The fundamental contradictions of SM are relatively limited. With the new round of demand release, short - term demand resilience remains. Total inventory shows a downward trend but the absolute level is still high. The price will fluctuate with market sentiment. Short - term cost has strong support, and the downward space is relatively limited. It is advisable to operate within the range or stay on the sidelines and avoid excessive short - selling. The reference range for the main contract is [5884, 6210] [4][5]. - **Silicon Iron (SF)**: The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. Alloy factory inventories are continuously accumulating and at a high level for the same period. Delivery inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high. There is no obvious short - term driver, and the price will follow market sentiment. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5584, 5960] [53][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: National output has increased for twelve consecutive weeks. Northern production areas have stable operations, with a slight resumption in southern Guizhou and Yunnan maintaining an over 85% operating rate. As of August 8, the national SM output was 195,825 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,005 tons, and the operating rate was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25% [4][11][13]. - **Demand**: Weekly hot metal production was 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 million tons, while rebar production and apparent demand increased week - on - week. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the procurement volume and price of a leading steel mill have both increased, providing rigid support for alloy demand. As of August 8, the weekly SM demand was 125,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,485 tons [4][14][18]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 161,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,809 to 76,045; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 384,500 tons, with a slower decline rate [4][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Port manganese ore prices were strong. Multiple foreign mines' September quotes increased slightly, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among manganese ore merchants. The supply of manganese ore decreased significantly, mainly from South Africa and Australia. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore was 259,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.8%. The actual arrival volumes of Gabon and Australian ores were still low. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term. Some regions have started the sixth round of coke price increases, but the chemical coke price in production areas has not yet followed [4]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SM main contract was 6,064 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 64 yuan/ton. The spot prices in main production areas increased by 70 - 100 yuan/ton [7][8]. Silicon Iron - **Supply**: National output continued to increase this week, with the operating rate at a low level for the same period. Except for Inner Mongolia, the operating rates in other production areas were relatively stable. Inner Mongolia's production increased by 12.8% week - on - week, and the daily output was at a relatively high level for the same period. As of August 8, the weekly SF output was 109,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,700 tons, and the operating rate was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% [53][59]. - **Demand**: The demand for SF from five major steel products was 20,266.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 344.3 tons. In August, a new round of demand was released, and most steel mills' procurement volume and price increased. The inquiry price for a leading steel mill's August SF procurement was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last month, and the procurement quantity was 2,835 tons, an increase of 135 tons from the previous round. Non - steel demand: the domestic magnesium market has been strong recently, and the magnesium ingot price in Fugu has risen to 17,000 yuan/ton [53][62][66]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 71,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2,396 to 19,646; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 107,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,900 tons [53][67]. - **Cost and Profit**: The semi - coke market was stable, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The cost line in production areas moved up slightly, and the spot profit declined compared to the previous period. The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,499 yuan/ton and 5,352 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 49 yuan/ton and 48 yuan/ton respectively [53][69][71]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 234 yuan/ton [57].

中辉期货钢材周报 短期维持区间波动，中期关注现实逻辑 分析师：陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期：2025/8/8 观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色板块走势有所分化，双焦在焦煤带动下进一步上行，钢材整体则呈震荡走势，表现相 对平淡。从供需看，需求端淡季特征比较明显，五大材表需环比进一步回落，7月PMI数据仍处于50以下的收 缩状态，土地成交面积以及水泥出货量未见改善；出口则因利润下滑，后续订单有一定下降。供应方面，高炉 利润维持了较高水平，钢厂盈利率再创年内新高，电炉利润较前期好转，短流程螺纹钢产量环比增加，供应端 在利润支撑下生产积极性较高。供需层面存在边际宽松的趋势，但需注意后期因阅兵等因素带来的限产影响。 【策略建议】：目前黑色系仍受"反内卷"逻辑带动，宏观预期之下市场对利多消息比较敏感。价格上涨背景下 原料端现货出现一定补库和投机需求，成材现货市场则比较冷静。在终端实际需求仍疲弱，且提振政策未出台 的背景下，市场对行情高度亦存有疑虑。短期在预期与现实博弈下或呈区 ...