中辉有色观点 | | | of Real | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 1000 Controller | C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 国内假日期间事件复杂：美国关税反复、伊朗局势变化，另外日本政府或给资本市 | | ★ | 多单持有 | 场带来潜在动荡。黄金大涨，今日开盘国内市场将补涨。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不 | | | | 确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 地缘政治局势动荡，带来白银价格在国内春节期间大幅上涨逼近 15%。尽管长期理 | | 白银 | 谨慎追高 | 由仍然存在供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。短期国内市场会补 | | ★ | | 涨，短期参与难度大，风险报酬比不合适，关注补涨情绪节奏。 | | | | 美国关税政策反复，伊朗局势多变，黄金再次拉涨。机器人和 AI 科技春晚亮眼，春 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 节假期消费回暖。随着金三银四消费旺季和国内两会临近，铜整体趋势偏强，建议 | | ★ | | 回调逢低试多，中长期对铜依旧看 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比下降，春节临近，现货成交持续萎缩。螺纹利润尚可，产量在利润支撑下 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 回升，库存累积。铁水产量变化不大，供需总体符合季节性规律。钢材供需层面矛盾有 | | | | 限，中期维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有上升，绝对水平偏高。钢厂利润总体一般，节前生 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 产相对平稳。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制， | | | | 中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 钢厂进口矿库存水平明显上升，补库进入尾声，铁水环比小幅回升，外矿发货明显减少， | | ★ | | 铁矿基本面偏强，价格或坚挺。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，二轮提涨有难度。近期焦企利润明显改善，受生产惯性短期焦企生 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 产积极性尚可，供应量环比略增。从需求来看，铁水产量变化不大，下游维持按需采购。 预计短期维持区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 本周国内煤矿进入放假高峰期，日均 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Oscillation**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Short - term Adjustment**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Short - term Consolidation**: Soybean Oil [1] - **Oscillation Adjustment**: Cotton [1] - **Pressured Operation**: Red Dates [1] - **Oscillation Weakly**: Live Pigs [1] 2. Report's Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: South American soybean issues persist. US soybeans maintain a strong trend, and domestic soybean meal continued to rise as bearish funds took risk - off positions before the Spring Festival. Be cautious about risks during the holiday and focus on multiple factors such as South American soybean production and US soybean planting area [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Import supply is expected to improve. USDA February report data is bullish, and rapeseed meal continued to rebound. Pay attention to rapeseed procurement and trade developments [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil export data is bearish. Affected by Indonesia's export, palm oil prices fell, but it's in a large - range market due to the off - season and Indian festival demand [1][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: International and domestic soybean and soybean oil markets lack clear drivers. The price is oscillating weakly. Focus on palm oil data and US biodiesel policy [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Supply has been alleviated, and it followed other oils to decline after the pre - holiday stocking. Pay attention to other oils and rapeseed import [1]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton market has stopped falling. Domestic raw material inventory is decreasing, but demand is weakening seasonally. In the long - term, there is a strong expectation [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Pre - holiday sales are okay, but high inventory limits price increase. The market lacks bullish drivers after stocking. The price is under pressure, and be cautious about the rebound height [1][16]. - **Live Pigs**: In February, the supply - demand is strong. Early - month high - speed slaughtering suppresses prices. Some areas may have short - term rebounds, but the 03 contract is prone to fall, and far - month contracts lack upward momentum [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The national average spot price was 3167.71 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [3]. - **Market Situation**: South American soybean production and quality are affected. US soybean exports are expected to be good. Domestic bearish funds took risk - off positions before the Spring Festival [1][4]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2303 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The national average spot price was 2603.68 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [5]. - **Market Situation**: USDA February report adjusted relevant data bullishly. The resumption of Canadian rapeseed trade improves supply expectations [1][7]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8782 yuan/ton, down 1.39%. The national average price was 8850 yuan/ton, down 0.78% [8]. - **Market Situation**: Malaysian palm oil exports in February are not optimistic. Affected by Indonesia's supply increase, prices fell, but the off - season and Indian demand support the large - range market [1][9]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2605) closed at 14745 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 16069 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [10]. - **Market Situation**: The 2 - month USDA report is slightly bearish. Domestic raw material inventory is decreasing, and demand is seasonally weak. In the long - term, there is an upward expectation [1][13]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2605) closed at 8855 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The spot prices in various regions are stable [14]. - **Market Situation**: Pre - holiday sales are okay, but high inventory limits price increase. The market lacks bullish drivers after stocking [1][16]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (lh2605) closed at 11540 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The national average slaughter price was 11520 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [17]. - **Market Situation**: In February, the supply - demand is strong. Early - month high - speed slaughtering suppresses prices. The 03 contract is prone to fall, and far - month contracts lack upward momentum [1][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious view on the energy and chemical industries, with many commodities having a "cautious" or "bearish" outlook [5]. 2. Core Views - The geopolitical impact on oil prices is weakening, and prices are returning to fundamental pricing. Most energy and chemical commodities are facing various challenges such as oversupply, seasonal demand weakness, and high inventory [1][2][3]. - Some commodities like PX/PTA have a positive outlook in terms of future demand and valuation, while others like LPG, L, PP, etc., are expected to face downward pressure or remain in a weak - balanced state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Geopolitical uncertainty remains high, and the supply - demand imbalance persists with oversupply and a coming demand淡季 [1]. - **Price Data**: WTI主力 at $62.84/barrel (-2.77%), Brent主力 at $67.52/barrel (-2.71%), SC主力 at 481 yuan/barrel (+1.07%) [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: IEA expects 2026 global oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (down 0.1 million from last month), and demand to grow by 0.85 million barrels per day (up from last month). US crude and product inventories are increasing [11]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the supply - demand situation will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. SC is recommended to be watched in the range of [450 - 460] [12]. LPG - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. It lacks short - term drivers and follows oil price fluctuations. Cost support is weakening, and inventory is rising [1]. - **Price Data**: PG2603 at 4295 yuan/ton (+0.75%), PG2604 at 4564 yuan/ton (-0.09%), PG2605 at 4476 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [13]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply and demand are both increasing, but the inventory is bearish with rising port inventory [1]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price is expected to decline due to oversupply of upstream crude oil. In the short - term, due to oil price uncertainty, the fundamental is bearish. PG is recommended to be watched in the range of [4200 - 4300] [16]. L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. The cost of crude oil is falling, and the basis is weak. Supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to be cautious during the holiday [1]. - **Price Data**: L05 (主力) at 6734 yuan/ton (-0.8%) [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: Linear production is at a high level, and supply is expected to continue to increase with the restart of some devices [20]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation during the holiday, and pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand verification. L is recommended to be watched in the range of [6650 - 6800] [20]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. There is a lack of supply - demand drivers before the holiday, and the supply pressure has eased with a certain cost support [1]. - **Price Data**: PP05 (主力) at 6648 yuan/ton (-0.7%) [22]. - **Supply - Demand**: The current supply - demand is weak, and the parking ratio is 17.5%. PDH profit is low, providing cost support [24]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation during the holiday, and pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand verification. PP is recommended to be watched in the range of [6550 - 6700] [24]. PVC - **Core View**: Range - bound. The cost support is weakening, and high inventory restricts the upside. It is expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. - **Price Data**: V05 (主力) at 4938 yuan/ton (-1.0%) [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: Short - term export rush continues, but high inventory is difficult to reverse [28]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation, and PVC is recommended to be watched in the range of [4850 - 5000] [28]. PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish. Valuation is relatively reasonable, and the future outlook is positive despite short - term seasonal demand weakness [2]. - **Price Data**: TA05 at 5166 (at the 85.7% percentile in the past 3 months) [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is affected by device maintenance, and demand is seasonally weak with some inventory accumulation in January - February [30]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental outlook is positive. Pay attention to capital actions, and consider buying on significant pullbacks for TA05 in the range of [5168 - 5268] [31]. MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Valuation is low, and the short - term demand is weak, but the situation is expected to improve in March - April [2]. - **Price Data**: EG05 at 3959 yuan/ton [32]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak with inventory accumulation in January - February [33]. - **Strategy**: The price is bottom - grinding, and long positions can be considered on dips for EG05 in the range of [3690 - 3760] [34]. Methanol - **Core View**: Short - term bearish. The de - stocking slope is slowing, and the fundamental is slightly loose [3]. - **Price Data**: Methanol主力 at a high valuation (73% in the past 3 months), comprehensive profit at - 250.9 yuan/ton [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic supply is at a high level, and overseas supply is expected to increase. Demand has stopped falling [37]. - **Strategy**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Long positions can be held for MA05 in the range of [2225 - 2255] [39]. Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously avoid chasing long. Valuation is not low, and the short - term demand is weakening [4]. - **Price Data**: URO5 at 1777 yuan/ton, URO9 at 1754 yuan/ton, URO1 at 1690 yuan/ton [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is under pressure with high production, and demand is entering a holiday off - season [41][42]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing long. UR05 is recommended to be watched in the range of [1790 - 1820] [43]. LNG - **Core View**: Range - bound. The impact of the cold wave is weakening, and exports are increasing [7]. - **Price Data**: NG主力 at $3.234/million British thermal units (+2.24%) [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: US export decreased in January, and the rig count increased. Japanese import decreased in 2025 [46]. - **Strategy**: The demand support is weakening as the cold wave fades. NG is recommended to be watched in the range of [2.900 - 3.400] [47]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. The demand is in the off - season, and the valuation is high [7]. - **Price Data**: BU2603 (主力) at 3327 yuan/ton (-0.92%) [48]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is decreasing in February, and inventory is increasing [50]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. Be aware of geopolitical risks. BU is recommended to be watched in the range of [3200 - 3300] [51]. Glass - **Core View**: Low - level oscillation. The daily melting volume is declining, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance [7]. - **Price Data**: FG05 (主力) at 1065 yuan/ton (-0.6%) [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: Demand is in the off - season, and high inventory needs further supply reduction [55]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about short - selling. FG is recommended to be watched in the range of [1040 - 1090] [55]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. The enterprise inventory is increasing, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - **Price Data**: SA05 (主力) at 1162 yuan/ton (-1.4%) [57]. - **Supply - Demand**: Floating glass demand is falling, and new production capacity is added. Supply is under pressure [59]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies before further intensification of maintenance. SA is recommended to be watched in the range of [1150 - 1200] [59].

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 1 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 或是因为美股下跌造成贵金属等价格踩踏，黄金大跌，另外美联储官员强调联储独 | | ★ | 企稳多配 | 立性，盘面继续调整。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金 | | | | （中国央行连续 15 个月购金），长期战略配置价值不变。关注调整幅度。 | | 白银 | | 其他原因造成白银资金踩踏出逃，再次下跌。尽管长期理由仍然存在供需缺口连续 5 | | | 等待降波 | 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注，短期参 | | ★ | | 与难度大，风险报酬比不合适。 | | | | 俄罗斯意图重返美元结算系统，削弱去美元化叙事，贵金属和科技股暴跌，COMEX | | 铜 | 空仓过节 | 铜库存去化，隔夜铜测试 10 万关口支撑，假期外部风险增加，波动剧烈，建议铜空 | | ★ | | 仓过节。 | | 锌 | | 锌外强内弱，随着春节长假临近，需求疲软，锌锭库 ...

| 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2773 | 2734 | 39 | 1. 43% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3162 | 3152. 29 | 9.71 | 0. 31% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3100 | 3100 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3237.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2260 | 2260 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1433. 33 | 1433. 33 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 椰子粕 | 元/ ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国非农数据超预期，市场无视，另外美联储官员强调联储独立性，盘面继续调整。 | | 黄金 | 企稳多配 | 中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金（中国央行连续 15 个月 | | ★ | | 购金），长期战略配置价值不变。关注调整幅度。 | | | | 白银多空拥挤交易博弈或没有结束。尽管长期理由仍然存在供需缺口连续 5 年，全 | | 白银 | 等待降波 | 球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注，短期参与难度 | | ★ | | 大，风险报酬比不合适。 | | | | 非农表强里弱，短期市场降息预期降温，美元走强，关注后续美国 CPI 和沃什讲话。 | | 铜 | | 隔夜铜冲高回落，建议多单止盈落袋，持币空仓过节。中长期，铜作为中美博弈的 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | | 锌外强内弱，随着春节长假临近，需求疲软，锌锭库存累库，建议准备持币空仓过 | | ★ | 承压 | 节，规避风险。 | | 铅 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比下降，春节临近，现货成交持续萎缩。螺纹利润尚可，产量在利润支撑下 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 回升，库存累积。铁水产量变化不大，供需总体符合季节性规律。钢材供需层面矛盾有 | | | | 限，中期维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有上升，绝对水平偏高。钢厂利润总体一般，节前生 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 产相对平稳。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制， | | | | 中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 钢厂进口矿库存水平明显上升，补库进入尾声，铁水环比小幅回升，外矿发货明显减少， | | ★ | | 铁矿基本面偏强，价格或坚挺。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，二轮提涨有难度。近期焦企利润明显改善，受生产惯性短期焦企生 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 产积极性尚可，供应量环比略增。从需求来看，铁水产量变化不大，下游维持按需采购。 | | | | 预计短期维持区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 本周国内煤矿进入 ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘反反复复，油价短期震荡偏强。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，下周美伊 | | 原油 | 震荡调整 | 将继续谈判，地缘不确定性较大，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过剩 | | ★ | | 格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页岩 | | | | 油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹偏强，短期带动气价回升。成本端油价短 | | LPG | | 期受地缘扰动震荡盘整，但地缘溢价下降，后续支撑下降；供需方面，液 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率连续下降，降至 70%以下，化工需求 | | | | 支撑降低；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 上中游库存窄幅波动，装置回归，基差延续偏弱震荡，假期临近，谨慎操 | | ★ | 空头盘整 | 作，关注节后需求验证情况。线性产量维持同期高位，本周中英石化等装 | | | | 置计划重启，预计供给延续增加趋势，基本面偏空。 | | | | 成本端丙烷、丙烯延续 ...

的客观观察维度，不构成任何投资建议、收益承诺或未来表现的保证，投资者须独立判断并承担风险 。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比下降，春节临近，现货成交持续萎缩。螺纹利润尚可，产量在利润支撑 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下回升，库存累积。铁水产量变化不大，供需总体符合季节性规律。钢材供需层面矛 | | | | 盾有限， 中期维持区间运行。 | | | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有上升，绝对水平偏高。钢厂利润总体一般，节前 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 生产相对平稳。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压 | | ★ | | 制， 中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 钢厂进 口矿库存水平明显上升，补库进入尾声，铁水环比小幅回升，外矿发货明显减 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 少，铁矿基本面偏强，价格或坚挺。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，二轮提涨有难度。近期焦企利润明显改善，受生产惯性短期焦企 生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略增。从需求来看，铁 ...