Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry - wide investment rating provided in the report. However, for individual varieties, ratings are as follows: Gold - ★ (suggesting long - term strategic allocation), Silver - ★ (short - term attention to support level, long - term long), Copper - ★ (long - term bullish), Zinc - ★ (short - term bearish, long - term wait for shorting opportunity), Lead - ★★ (short - term bearish), Tin - ★ (short - term rebound), Aluminum - ★★ (short - term bearish), Nickel - ★★ (short - term bearish), Industrial Silicon - ★ (short - term bearish), Polysilicon - ★ (high - level shock, callback to buy), Lithium Carbonate - ★ (high - level shock, hold long positions) [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Gold**: Short - term, due to the significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine issue and the decline of risk - aversion sentiment, the disk lacks upward momentum. Long - term, with the loose monetary policies of major countries, central banks' continuous gold purchasing, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern, there is a need for asset allocation in gold, so it should be strategically allocated [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term, there are concerns about liquidity, and it is more elastic. It is affected by gold fluctuations. Long - term, with strong global liquidity and re - industrialization demand and limited supply increase, the upward trend is unchanged. Short - term, pay attention to the performance around 9150, and long - term, go long [1]. - **Copper**: Short - term, the upcoming global central bank annual meeting and the possible hawkish statement of Powell may suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, causing the US dollar to rebound and copper prices to be under pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level. Long - term, as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game, with the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand, it is bullish [1][7]. - **Zinc**: Short - term, due to insufficient demand and inventory accumulation, the Shanghai zinc is under pressure and in a weak shock. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, waiting for shorting opportunities on rebounds [1][11]. - **Lead**: Short - term, with the recovery of primary lead production and the weakening impact of environmental protection on secondary lead in Anhui, supply is relatively loose, and downstream battery consumption is poor, so lead prices are under pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Short - term, with the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and a slight increase in the domestic refined tin smelting industry's start - up, and the tin ingot inventory reaching a high level in the off - season, tin prices show a short - term rebound [1]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term, with stable bauxite supply at home and abroad, inventory accumulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas during the off - season, and poor performance in terminal consumption and exports, aluminum prices are under pressure [1][15]. - **Nickel**: Short - term, with the weakening price of nickel ore in the Philippines and the accumulation of domestic refined nickel social inventory, and the weakening of inventory reduction driven by stainless - steel production cuts, nickel prices are under pressure [1][19]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term, affected by the new energy sector's fluctuations, with no major supply - demand contradiction in itself, it is under obvious pressure from the top and tests the lower support [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Despite a bearish fundamental outlook and expected inventory accumulation in August, due to the photovoltaic industry symposium held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is expected to be in high - level shock, and buy on callbacks [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply contracts unexpectedly, and with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, wait for the strengthening of the de - stocking drive. Hold long positions. It is in high - level shock in the short term [1][23]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Global parties are seeking a geopolitical cease - fire, and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting may have a radical stance, leading to an obvious adjustment in gold and silver prices [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The market expects Powell to have a radical stance at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The US housing starts in July reached a five - month high, contrary to expectations. There is progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire. Short - term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low, while long - term, gold may continue a long - bull trend due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may have support around 766 in the short term. Pay attention to long - order entry after stabilization. Silver has greater short - term emotional fluctuations and is adjusting downward. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at 9000. Also, pay attention to the tri - party meeting of the US, Russia, and Ukraine [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper lost the 9700 - level mark, and Shanghai copper was under pressure and declined. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Recently, there have been disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. With the increase in smelting maintenance in August - September, refined copper production may decline marginally. It is currently the off - season, and downstream demand is weak, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. Overseas exchange copper inventory has increased slightly, and domestic social inventory has rebounded slightly. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the approaching central bank annual meeting, the US dollar rebounds, and copper prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and then go long lightly after the price stabilizes. Long - term, copper is bullish. Shanghai copper focuses on the range [77500, 79500] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc is in a weak shock, testing the lower - level support [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The production of refined zinc in China has increased significantly. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has been rising, and smelter enthusiasm is high. However, due to the tariff increase on galvanized steel in Vietnam and the domestic off - season, the demand of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The spot market transaction is dull, and inventory has accumulated [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, due to the off - season and inventory accumulation, zinc is in a weak shock. Hold previous short positions, and some can take profit on dips. Pay attention to the support at the 22000 - level. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so short on rebounds. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range [21800, 22400], and LME zinc focuses on [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices are falling back [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro - trade policies are still uncertain. The cost has decreased, and inventory has increased. The downstream start - up rate has rebounded slightly. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect the arrival volume in August, and the inventory accumulation speed of mainstream ports is expected to slow down. Domestic alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory has accumulated. Short - term, the supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are running weakly, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure and falling back [17]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and NPI smelters are facing cost inversion and losses. Domestic refined nickel production has increased, and inventory has accumulated again. The production cut of stainless - steel has weakened, and the inventory reduction effect is weakening. The terminal market is still in the off - season, and stainless - steel still faces over - supply pressure [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless - steel. Pay attention to the downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a slight reduction in positions, and closed down 1.79% [21]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals have not shown obvious improvement. The total inventory and production have decreased slightly, but the absolute quantity is still at a high level in recent years. After CATL confirmed the shutdown, the market expects the synchronous shutdown of other mines in Jiangxi. With the approaching peak season of terminal demand, downstream material factories start to stock up. The vulnerability of the inventory structure will amplify price elasticity. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is still an expectation of supply speculation. Hold long positions in the range [86500 - 88000] [23].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 气候中性预期，美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，8 | 月累库速度 | 较 | 7 | 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关键成本支撑。本周美农公布 | 8 | | | | | | 月供需报告，意外大幅调低美豆种植面积，但调增了单产，导致最终美豆产量及期 | 豆粕 | 短期偏多 | 末库存环比下调，产量环比调减 | 116 | 万吨，叠加中国发布对加籽反倾销调查初步政 | | | | | | ★ | 策，菜粕封停。近期事件炒作降温，本周 | 18 | 日-21 | 日美民间机构开展美豆调研数据。 | | | | | | | 豆粕暂维持偏多震荡，但追多需谨慎。关注最终面积及产量数据能否给出新指引。 | | | | | | | | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽新年单产存在调减风险。国内油厂菜籽环比去库菜 | 粕环比累库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。8 | 月至 | 10 | 月菜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Partially take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish consolidation [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, supply surplus pressure rises, and oil prices tend to decline, but the downside space is narrowing. Focus on the break - even point of new US shale oil wells around $60. [1][3][4] - LPG: Low valuation and improved demand lead to a short - term rebound. However, due to the weak oil price at the cost end, partial profit - taking on long positions is recommended. [1][7][9] - L: Cost support is weak, but with the approaching peak season for shed films, demand support strengthens. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm and consider buying on dips or holding long LP spreads. [1][12][16] - PP: Cost support weakens, and the market continues to be bearish. Follow the cost for short - term weak oscillations and consider buying on dips. [1][19][22] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices fall, cost support weakens, and inventory accumulates. Hold short positions. [1][25][29] - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. Take profit on short positions and look for high - short opportunities or sell call options. [1][31][33] - PTA: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there are still macro - policy positives. Take profit on short positions step - by - step, buy put options, and look for opportunities to buy on dips. [1][35][37] - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is slightly loose, but inventory is at a low level. Look for high - short opportunities and sell call options. [2][39][41] - Methanol: Supply - demand is loose, and port inventory accumulates. Take profit on 09 short positions step - by - step, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 after the decline of 09 slows down. [2][43][45] - Urea: Fundamentals are weak, but winter fertilizer use and exports are relatively good. Take profit on 09 short positions and look for low - buying opportunities for 01. [2][47][49] - Asphalt: Oil prices have room to compress, raw material supply is sufficient, and supply increases while demand decreases. Try short positions with a light position. [2] - Propylene: The absolute price is low. Buy on dips as the downstream is entering the seasonal peak season. [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.16%, Brent rising 1.14%, and SC falling 0.76%. [3] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts tend to ease, the support of the peak season for oil prices declines, and OPEC+ production increases, putting pressure on oil prices. [4] - **Fundamentals**: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased in January - July. Global oil demand is expected to grow, and US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending August 8. [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC. [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 18, the PG main contract closed at 3,849 yuan/ton, down 0.67% month - on - month. [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are weak, but the fundamentals are good, with high basis, improved supply - demand, and a short - term rebound. [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions due to the possible drag of weak oil prices at the cost end. Focus on the range of [3830 - 3930] for PG. [10] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,334 yuan/ton (down 17 day - on - day). [13][14] - **Industry News**: PE prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand. [15] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weak, but demand support strengthens with the approaching peak season. Consider buying on dips or holding long LP spreads. [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7,048 yuan/ton (down 36 day - on - day). [20][21] - **Industry News**: The market is expected to oscillate bearishly in the short term due to factors such as demand and supply. [21] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the market continues to be bearish. Follow the cost for short - term weak oscillations and consider buying on dips. [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,054 yuan/ton (down 43 day - on - day). [26][27] - **Industry News**: The domestic PVC market continues to be weak due to factors such as supply, demand, and policies. [28] - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices fall, cost support weakens, and inventory accumulates. Hold short positions. [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern is conducive to inventory accumulation in August. [30] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PX spot price in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,688 yuan/ton. [31][32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. Cautiously bearish. [33][34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and look for high - short opportunities or sell call options. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6810] for PX511. [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4,716 yuan/ton. [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there are still macro - policy positives. Cautiously bullish. [37][38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions step - by - step, buy put options, and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the range of [4720 - 4770] for TA01. [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,369 yuan/ton. [39][40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is slightly loose, but inventory is at a low level. Cautiously bearish. [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for high - short opportunities and sell call options. Focus on the range of [4370 - 4410] for EG01. [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,355 yuan/ton, and the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2,412 yuan/ton. [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas methanol supply increases, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. Bearish. [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions step - by - step, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 after the decline of 09 slows down. Focus on the range of [2368 - 2397] for MA01. [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the urea main contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton. [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases, domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. Cautiously bullish. [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 due to the possible autumn fertilizer peak and export speculation. Focus on the range of [1735 - 1760] for UR01. [51]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 目前高炉利润仍然较好，电炉利润较前期亦有好转，钢厂生产积极性较高，铁水产量高 | | 螺纹钢 | 观望为宜 | 位运行。需求端总体仍然较弱，建筑钢材成交低位徘徊。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产影响有 | | ★ | | 限，供需预计趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，但整体宏观情绪仍存在，预计 | | | | 对下方将形成一定支撑，不宜追空。 | | 热卷 | 观望为宜 | 热卷产量、表需以及库存均略增，基本面相对平稳。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | ★ | | 供需整体有宽松趋势。期货连续下跌后下方空间或已有限，观望为宜。 | | | | 基本面看，铁水产量微增。外矿发到货双增，港口、钢厂库存同增，钢厂补库带动阶段 | | 铁矿石 ★ | 短线参与 | 性价格坚挺。7 月经济数据偏弱，成材端延续淡季特征。矿价随钢价震荡偏弱运行。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货开启第七轮提涨，后期或面临钢厂博弈。焦企利润有所改善，利润总体转正。 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 当前焦炭供需总体相对平衡，产量及库存偏稳运行，变化不大。中 ...

中辉有色观点 | | | 11/2 | 1200 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | 20.00 | | 1965 | C 22.0 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 俄乌、中东等地缘寻求停战，避险情绪下降，短期盘面缺乏向上动力。中长期，主 | | ★ | 止跌试多 | 要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄金有资产配置需求。长 | | | | 期黄金继续战略配置。 | | 白银 | | 中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺激等支撑作用明显，工业需求坚挺， | | | 反弹做多 | 供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。短期白银基本面变化不大，品种弹性较大， | | ★ | | 谨防黄金波动影响，短期关注 9150 附近表现，长期做多。 | | | | 全球央行年会在即，市场预测鲍威尔或发声偏鹰，打压美联储降息预期，美元反弹 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 铜价承压，建议回调轻仓试多。中长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿 | | ★ | | 紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously Bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term Long Participation [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously Bullish [1][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously Bullish [1][14][15] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously Bearish [1][18][19] Core Views - **Rebar**: Currently, blast furnace profits are still good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, with high hot metal output. The demand side remains weak, and construction steel transactions are hovering at a low level. However, the production restriction policies during the military parade have not been fully implemented, which continues to support the market's expectation of supply-side contraction. The raw material side also brings disturbances. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and currently, it is in a neutral position. Short-term market trends are prone to fluctuations [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The output and apparent demand of hot-rolled coils have decreased month-on-month, and inventories have slightly increased. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The export profit of hot-rolled coils has significantly declined, and exports may be affected in the future. Strong macro expectations provide support at the bottom, and the production restriction expectations during the military parade support the market. Currently, it is in a neutral position, and short-term market trends may fluctuate [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, hot metal output has slightly increased. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have both decreased, while port and steel mill inventories have increased simultaneously. Steel mill restocking has driven the price to be firm in the short term. Under the dominance of fundamentals, the ore price is strong [1][8][9]. - **Coke**: Coke spot prices have increased for six consecutive rounds, and coke enterprise profits continue to improve. Some regions have announced production restriction policies during the military parade, and the supply side may contract to some extent in the future. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, with relatively stable output and inventory. In the medium term, the raw material side may still be supported by news of production restrictions and cutbacks, maintaining a strong trend. In the short term, the current price is relatively high, and the exchange has introduced new trading restrictions on coking coal, so there may be a short-term correction. It is advisable to wait and see [1][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: In terms of supply and demand, the domestic coking coal output has remained flat month-on-month, with an absolute level lower than that of the same period last year. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently. The total inventory at the mine end has stopped decreasing month-on-month, and the transfer speed to downstream has slowed down. The absolute level of hot metal output is still high, and the raw material demand is relatively stable. Recently, news of coal mine production restrictions still supports the market, and the medium-term trend may remain strong. However, the exchange has restricted the trading limit of the 01 contract and increased the intraday speculative handling fee, which may dampen market sentiment. In the short term, pay attention to the risk of market fluctuations and it is advisable to wait and see [1][14][15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser. With the concentrated release of a new round of demand, short-term demand resilience remains. The total on-balance-sheet inventory continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. Currently, the main contract has gradually shifted to the 01 contract. Market sentiment has declined but still has some momentum. In the short term, the cost side has relatively strong support. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser. Enterprise inventories have slightly decreased, but the absolute level is still high. Warehouse receipts have continued to increase compared to last week, and the overall supply pressure is obvious. Currently, the main contract has switched to the 2511 contract. Short-term market sentiment still has some momentum. Continue to pay attention to the performance of coking coal and coke. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Currently, blast furnace and electric furnace profits are good, and steel mills are highly motivated to produce. The demand side is weak, but production restriction expectations support the market. In the medium term, it will fluctuate within a range, and short-term trends are prone to fluctuations [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Output and apparent demand have decreased, and inventories have slightly increased. Export profits have declined, but macro and production restriction expectations support the market. Currently, it is in a neutral position, and short-term trends may fluctuate [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, hot metal output has increased slightly, foreign ore arrivals and shipments have decreased, and inventories have increased. Steel mill restocking has driven the price to be firm, and the ore price is strong [1][8][9]. Coke - Spot prices have increased for six consecutive rounds, and coke enterprise profits have improved. Some regions have announced production restriction policies, and the supply side may contract. Currently, supply and demand are balanced, and in the medium term, it will maintain a strong trend. In the short term, there may be a correction due to high prices and trading restrictions [1][11][12]. Coking Coal - Domestic output is flat, Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased, and mine end inventory transfer has slowed down. Raw material demand is stable, and production restriction news supports the market. In the medium term, it will remain strong, but short-term market sentiment may be dampened by trading restrictions [1][14][15]. Ferrosilicon - Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser, enterprise inventories are high, and supply pressure is obvious. The main contract has switched, and short-term market sentiment still has some momentum. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. Manganese Silicon - Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser, demand has some resilience, and inventory is declining but still high. The main contract has shifted, and short-term cost support is strong. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Partially take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish consolidation [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease and supply surplus pressure rises, leading to a downward trend in oil prices, but the decline space is narrowing [1][4] - LPG: High basis and improved downstream demand lead to a short - term rebound, and long positions can be partially taken profit [1][9] - L: With the approaching of the shed film peak season, the demand side strengthens, and it is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [1][16] - PP: Although the cost is weak in the short term, with the approaching of the demand peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [1][23] - PVC: After India announced the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and it is recommended to hold short positions [1][30] - PX: The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and with the weakening of oil prices, it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [1][35] - PTA: Although the supply pressure is expected to increase later, considering the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [1][39] - Ethylene glycol: Supply increases and demand is expected to recover, but the inventory is low, so it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [2][43] - Methanol: Supply pressure increases and demand is weak, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][47] - Urea: Supply is sufficient and domestic demand is weak, but export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][51] - Asphalt: The cost is under pressure and supply increases while demand decreases, so it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - Propylene: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season, so it is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Last Friday, international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 3.10% (due to contract roll - over), Brent decreased 1.48%, and SC rose 0.62% [3] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts tend to ease, the support of the peak season for oil prices declines, and OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure on oil prices. In the medium - long term, oil prices may be pressed to around $60 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August output was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The IEA expects global crude oil demand to grow by 685,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 699,000 barrels per day in 2026. As of the week ending August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3 million barrels [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [475 - 495] [6] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PG main contract closed at 3,875 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil is weak, but the basis is high, and the supply and demand situation improves with both supply and inventory decreasing, leading to a short - term rebound [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the price mainly follows the oil price. Partially take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [3830 - 3930] [10] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,251 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Ningmei in North China was 7,280 yuan/ton [13][14] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices decline slightly, the basis weakens. With more device maintenance recently, the supply pressure eases. The shed film peak season is approaching, and the demand side strengthens. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [17] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7,084 yuan/ton, and the spot price of East China drawn wire was 7,051 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices decline, spot prices continue to decline slightly, and the basis weakens. Although the upstream maintains high - level maintenance, the demand peak season is approaching. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season and buy on dips [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [24] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 contract closed at 4,954 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 399 [27][28] - **Basic Logic**: After the main contract roll - over and India's announcement of the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to hold short positions [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound and then short [31] 3.6 PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,688 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side slightly increases production, the demand side weakens but is expected to improve. The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6620 - 6720] [36] 3.7 PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4,716 yuan/ton [37][38] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply pressure is expected to increase later. However, with the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions step by step, buy put options, and look for long - buying opportunities on dips for TA. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4680 - 4750] [40] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,369 yuan/ton [41][42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply increases, and the demand is expected to recover. Although the inventory is low, it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4380 - 4425] [44] 3.9 Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,355 yuan/ton, and the 01 main contract closed at 2,412 yuan/ton [46] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure increases as the previous maintenance devices resume production, and the demand is weak. The social inventory accumulates, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions step by step, look for long - buying opportunities on 01, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage in batches. Pay attention to the range of MA [2390 - 2420] [48] 3.10 Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - granular urea in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton [49][50] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is sufficient, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, and considering the potential of the autumn fertilizer peak season and export speculation, look for long - buying opportunities on 01. Pay attention to the range of UR [1725 - 1750] [53] 3.11 Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost is under pressure, supply increases while demand decreases, and it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [2] 3.12 Propylene - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [2]

PVC周报： 反倾销税公布，弱势震荡 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 时间：2025/8/17 基本面上行驱动不足，弱势震荡 【本周概况】 行情复盘：本周PVC2509盘面的波动范围为【4938，5077】，开盘价为4980元/吨，收盘价为4954元/吨，周线3 连阴，振幅较上周减小。周内基本面边际恶化，社会库存连续8周累库，成本端电石重回弱势，周度下跌90元/ 吨，成本支撑转弱。周四大商所第二次对焦煤出限仓通知，成本端焦煤冲高回落，盘面跟随下跌；周五盘面延 续弱势，创周内低点4938元/吨。 【下周展望】 基本面格局依旧偏弱，预计下周盘面延续弱势震荡。一方面，社会库存持续累库，虽然下周装置检修计划增加 ，但新产能陆续释放，供给依旧承压运行。另一方面，8月14日印度公布最新的进口反倾销税，中国大陆上调 40-65美元/吨，美国下调32-55美元/吨，国内出口优势削减，预计下半年对印度出口增速将下滑，出口支撑弱 化。 【策略】 1）单边：空单持有。V2601关注区间【5000，5250】。 2）套保：盘面维持升水结构，产业 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has an upward trend with strong industrial demand and limited supply growth. Copper is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with long - term positive prospects. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum, lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure, while industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are bullish, and lithium carbonate is also recommended for long positions [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Last week, gold and silver prices declined due to factors such as the reconstruction of the global geopolitical pattern and the repeated expectations of US interest rate cuts [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data is mixed, and there was a meeting between US and Russian leaders. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. The trading range for silver is expected to be between 9150 - 9400, and long - term long positions are recommended [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas copper prices [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Recently, there have been disruptions in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has marginally improved. During the consumption off - season, demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. Overseas copper inventories are slightly increasing, while domestic social inventories are tight [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the off - season and peak - season switch and the key interest - rate cut month of September approaches, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. Enterprises can wait for high - price opportunities to sell and hedge [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc opened lower and moved lower overnight, under pressure and falling back [9]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline in August, and domestic zinc inventories are accumulating [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. In the medium - long term, wait for high - price opportunities to short [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were slightly under pressure, and alumina was in a downward trend [12]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the macro situation has slightly improved, with costs decreasing and inventories increasing. For alumina, the arrival volume may be affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and the supply is expected to be loose in the short term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory changes during the off - season [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure during the rebound, and stainless steel was also under pressure [16]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing with inventory accumulation. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and there is still an over - supply pressure during the off - season [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 fluctuated slightly and rose more than 2% at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: Although the overall inventory and production have slightly declined, the absolute quantity is still high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, downstream factories are stocking up, and the inventory structure is expected to drive price increases [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish (Trend)**: Palm Oil [1] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Cotton, Red Dates, Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: In a situation where fundamental factors are weak and Sino - US trade tariffs provide cost support, it is advisable to view it as a large - range market. After the hype of events cools down, the price has recently dropped slightly. With the support of Sino - US trade tariffs, it is mainly recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to position and risk control when chasing long positions [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a reduction in the new - year yield of Canadian rapeseed. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with the improvement of Sino - Australian trade, have cooled down the market hype. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips and be cautious when chasing long positions [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea is mainly to go long on dips [1][8]. - **Cotton**: The short - term rhythm of Zhengzhou cotton focuses on the supply problem before the new cotton is listed. The fast de - stocking speed and the lack of import quotas provide support for the bottom. The downstream will enter the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market, and orders have started to improve. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and previous low - position long positions can consider phased profit - taking [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: It is initially estimated that the total output of Xinjiang southern Xinjiang gray dates in the 2025/26 season will be in the range of 50 - 580,000 tons, and the reduction is a foregone conclusion. In the short term, the market hype period around the opening price is relatively long, and the de - stocking speed has accelerated recently. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is smooth, and the previous pressure of second - fattening slaughter and the accelerated slaughter rhythm in August still put pressure on the spot end. The "weak reality, strong expectation" situation is still obvious. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and attention can be paid to establishing long positions in the far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations around strong contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3096.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.938 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 701,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1056 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 549,700 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,100 tons [3]. - **Analysis**: The continuous rise in US soybean prices has led to a decline in the Brazilian soybean premium. The procurement of imported soybeans in September in China has been fully completed, and more than half of the procurement for October has also been completed. The downstream feed enterprises are mainly cautious and wait - and - see [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2546 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.21% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2675.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 138,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,800 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5000 tons [5]. - **Analysis**: From August to October, the import of rapeseed is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% Canadian rapeseed meal import tariff and other factors support the price, but the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed puts pressure on the price [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9460 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% from the previous day; the national average price was 9418 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 599,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,600 tons [8]. - **Analysis**: The export data in the first 15 days of this month is good, which boosts the market to reach a new high. The trend is still mainly to go long on dips [8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou cotton decreased by 0.25% to 14,120 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.01% to 15,222 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Situation**: The excellent and good rate of US cotton decreased by 2% to 53% week - on - week, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area has recovered to 82%. The newly sown cotton area in India is 3.13 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 7% [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new cotton in Xinjiang has mostly entered the boll - opening stage, and the output is expected to increase to over 7.4 million tons. The domestic cotton commercial inventory has decreased by 150,600 tons to 1.8561 million tons [11]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 increased by 0.74% to 11,545 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production Area Situation**: The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period. It is estimated that the new - season output is 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a decrease compared with previous years [14]. - **Inventory Situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9686 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98 tons [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased by 0.18% to 13,945 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply Situation**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 continued to increase, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [17]. - **Demand Situation**: It is currently the consumption off - season, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [17].