1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Bearish allocation [1] - **Coke**: Reduce long positions [1] - **Coking Coal**: Reduce long positions [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The supply and demand of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both weak in the off-season. The decline in hot metal production weakens the support for raw materials. The Sino-US meeting has led to the implementation of tariff easing measures, and the steel market has limited contradictions [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The hot metal production has decreased significantly this week due to environmental protection control in Tangshan and maintenance of some loss-making steel mills. The static fundamentals are moderately weak, and the short-term ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7]. - **Coke**: The second round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, and the third round is on the way. Although the profits of coke enterprises have slightly improved, they are still mostly in a loss state. The price increase faces obvious pressure [1][11]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal mine production and operating rate have decreased slightly. The supply may tighten in November, and the demand has weakened marginally. The short-term price increase faces pressure [1][15]. - **Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon**: The supply in the production areas remains high, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have become looser [1][19]. 3. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Rebar**: Weekly production and apparent demand increased month-on-month, inventory continued to decline, and it conforms to the off-season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The mid-term will maintain range-bound operation, and the current position may face short-term weakness [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The apparent demand and production have both recovered, and the inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years. The mid-term is range-bound, and there may be a short-term correction [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The hot metal production has decreased significantly, steel mills have reduced inventories, and ports have accumulated inventories. The static fundamentals are moderately weak [1][7]. - **Price Trend**: The short-term ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the exhaustion of short-term macro-positive factors [1][7]. Coke - **Market Conditions**: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the third round is on the way. Coke enterprises' profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in a loss state. Steel mills' inventory is moderately low [1][11]. - **Price Trend**: The price increase faces obvious pressure, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [1][11][12]. Coking Coal - **Market Conditions**: Coal mine production and operating rate have decreased slightly, and the supply may tighten in November. The demand has weakened marginally [1][15]. - **Price Trend**: The short-term price increase faces pressure, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [1][15][16]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Silicomanganese**: The supply in the production area remains high, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased. The manganese ore price has slightly increased, and the short-term cost provides some support [1][19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply in the production area remains high, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased significantly. The fundamentals have become looser, and it is recommended to be bearish [1][19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for multiple futures varieties, including "cautiously bullish" for rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, and "bullish" for coke and coking coal [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: Macro factors provide short - term support, and steel products are expected to be strong in the short term. Rebar's supply - demand is weak, but it may be boosted by new regulations and production control. Hot - rolled coil's supply is high, but it may be strengthened by policies [2][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Although the static fundamentals are neutral to weak, due to the easing of Sino - US relations and positive macro factors, the iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [8]. - **Coke**: After the second round of price increases is fully implemented and the third round is on the way, coke is expected to follow the coking coal price and be strong in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is affected by safety inspections and other factors, and imports may be tightened. With high iron - water production, the price is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions should be held [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon's cost provides some support, and ferrosilicon is expected to follow the coal price. Both are cautiously bullish [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Weekly production and apparent demand have increased, and inventory has decreased. Supply and demand are lower than last year, inventory is slightly high, and the inventory reduction speed is average. The upward driving force is limited. New regulations on capacity replacement and regional production control may boost it, and it may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Apparent demand has increased, production has remained flat with a slight increase, and inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than in previous years. Steel supply is at a high level, but it may be strengthened by policies in the short term [4][5]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices such as rebar 01 are 3133 (up 42), and spot prices like Tangshan billet are 3000 (up 20). There are also details about basis, price differences, and profit margins [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Iron - water production has decreased, and steel mills and ports have increased inventory. Outer - mine shipments have increased, but arrivals have decreased significantly. Steel - enterprise profits have been rapidly compressed, and the static fundamentals are neutral to weak. - **Price Movement**: Affected by positive macro factors, the iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term. Futures prices such as iron ore 01 are 802 (up 12), and there are also details about spot prices, price differences, and freight rates [6][8]. 3.3 Coke - **Market Dynamics**: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the third round is in progress. Coke - steel game is obvious. Coke - enterprise profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in losses. Steel - mill inventory is low, and some steel mills are replenishing inventory. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to follow the coking coal price and be strong in the short term. There are details about futures prices, basis, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and profit [10][11]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Supply and Demand**: Coal - mine production has decreased month - on - month. Supply is affected by safety inspections and over - production verifications, and imports may be tightened. Iron - water production is high, and demand is guaranteed. The supply - demand pattern has become tight. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions should be held. There are details about futures prices, basis, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and utilization rates [14][15]. 3.5 Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Production area supply is at a high level. After the new round of replenishment demand from downstream steel procurement is released, inventory reduction in production areas becomes more difficult. The cost provides some support in the short term, and it is cautiously bullish [19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply and demand have weakened, enterprise inventory has decreased. It is expected to follow the coal price and be strong in the short term, and it is cautiously bullish. There are details about futures prices, spot prices, basis, and weekly data such as production and inventory [18][19][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bearish on crude oil, LPG, L, PP, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, and natural gas [1][3][6] - Bearish consolidation on L and PP [1] - Bearish rebound on PVC, glass, and soda ash [1][6] - Cautiously bullish on PX and PTA [1][3] Core Views - The core drivers of the oil market are the supply surplus in the off - season and macro - positive factors, with the oil price center expected to decline [9]. - LPG is affected by the cost - end oil price correction and the low basis, with the price likely to correct [14]. - L and PP face cost support weakening and high inventory pressure, with bearish consolidation trends [19][24]. - PVC has low - valuation support but faces supply - demand surplus contradictions, with a bearish rebound situation [28]. - PX has short - term supply - demand improvement but limited cost - end rebound height, with opportunities for both long and short positions [30][31]. - PTA has slightly improved supply and demand, but the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be loose, with short - term rebound opportunities [33][34]. - Ethylene glycol has a low valuation but lacks upward drivers, with a short - term weakening trend [36][37]. - Methanol has high inventory pressure, but there are opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [40][42]. - Urea has a relatively loose supply, with short - term upward pressure and long - term opportunities to go long at low prices [44][46]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI up 0.55%, Brent up 0.77%, and SC down 1.54% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Sanctions on Russia and macro - positive factors support the oil price, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to decline [9]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may increase production in December, Indian oil imports increased in September, and US commercial crude inventories decreased last week [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On October 29, the PG main contract closed at 4,287 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [13]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end oil price. The short - term geopolitical risk has eased, and the cost - end has corrected. The basis is at a low level [14]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions lightly. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, supply is loose, and demand replenishment power is insufficient [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry sells hedges at high prices, and short positions are preferred at high prices in the high - production cycle. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis is weakening, upstream device maintenance has increased, but the demand side faces high de - stocking pressure, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [24]. - **Strategy**: The industry sells hedges at high prices, and short positions are followed by short - term cost rebounds. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Low - valuation support exists, but the supply - demand surplus contradiction is prominent. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production [28]. - **Strategy**: The industry conducts hedging at high prices, and short - term long positions can be lightly participated in. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX futures price showed an upward trend [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have reduced their loads, demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken, and the cost - end oil price rebound is limited [30]. - **Strategy**: Try long positions lightly in the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices, and focus on expanding downstream processing fees. Focus on the PX range of [6620 - 6720] [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: The PTA futures price showed a slight increase [32]. - **Basic Logic**: New device production is imminent, but processing fees are low, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Terminal demand has improved slightly but is unstable, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [33]. - **Strategy**: Chase long positions lightly in the short term, focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds in the medium and long term, and focus on expanding TA processing fees. Focus on the TA range of [4610 - 4680] [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The ethylene glycol futures price showed a decline [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, overseas devices have increased their loads slightly, supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November. The valuation is low but lacks upward drivers [36]. - **Strategy**: Participate in short - term long positions lightly and pay attention to short - selling opportunities during rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [4060 - 4140] [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: High inventory suppresses the spot price [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is still high, demand has improved slightly, and cost support is weak and stable. Pay attention to the impact of Iranian "gas restrictions" [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously, focus on going long on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on MA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Focus on the MA range of [2235 - 2285] [42]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures price showed a slight increase [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand has improved slightly, inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists. Be vigilant against downward risks [44]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously, and try long positions lightly in the medium and long term. Focus on the UR range of [1635 - 1660] [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Oscillation**: Bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have short - term oscillatory trends. For bean meal, due to potential rainfall in Brazil and uncertainties in Sino - US negotiations, it's recommended to participate in short - term trading cautiously. Rapeseed meal is influenced by trade policies and lacks new driving factors, so it follows the trend of bean meal [1][4]. - **Short - term Decline**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are likely to experience short - term declines. Palm oil is affected by Indonesia's production increase and requests to cancel the B50 plan. Soybean oil has high inventory and follows palm oil's decline. Rapeseed oil has low mill operation rates and a lack of clear driving factors, remaining in a weak oscillation [1]. - **Upturn Under Pressure**: Cotton prices face upward pressure. Although there is some support at the bottom from India's MSP, the market is affected by increased supply from the US and other northern hemisphere countries and weak downstream demand [1][14]. - **Cautious Bearish Outlook**: For jujubes, currently, the market is highly volatile due to capital influence. The fundamental outlook remains bearish, but it's recommended to gradually reduce short positions as the premium is being repaired [1][18]. - **Rebound and Sell - Short**: The pig market is expected to have a short - term rebound, but the supply - demand situation remains loose. It's advisable to sell short on rebounds, considering the increasing supply pressure in Q4 and the gradual stabilization of terminal demand [1][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main bean meal contract closed at 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3045.71 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 155.2285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.71 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 973.1 million tons, a decrease of 15.3 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 751.29 million tons, a decrease of 17.41 million tons. The bean meal inventory was 105.46 million tons, an increase of 7.84 million tons. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' bean meal were 7.95 days, an increase of 0.03 days. The spot price of bean meal increased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, but the market procurement sentiment was weak [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2533.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38%. The national average rapeseed crushing profit was - 404.261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.79 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: As of October 24, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0.6 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. The unexecuted contracts increased by 0.03 million tons. The demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season due to the decline in water temperature [6]. Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory Information**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 8842 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from the previous day. The national average price was 8803 yuan/ton, down 1.89%. The weekly commercial inventory was 60.71 million tons, an increase of 3.14 million tons [7]. - **Production and Export**: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.78% compared to the same period last month, and different institutions reported different trends in export volume [9]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory Information**: The futures price of the main cotton contract (CF2601) was 13620 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% from the previous day. The national commercial cotton inventory was 184.16 million tons, an increase of 41 million tons [11]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the US, the new cotton harvest is over 70% complete. In Brazil, the new cotton processing and inspection are over 70% complete, and the export has accelerated. In China, the new cotton harvest is expected to be completed in about a week. The downstream demand is weak, with the spinning mill and weaving mill operation rates lower than the same period last year [12][13]. Jujubes - **Price and Inventory Information**: The futures price of the main jujube contract (CJ2601) was 10495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9103 tons, an increase of 94 tons [15]. - **Market Situation**: Some jujube - producing areas have started the harvest, and the market is expected to be in a loose supply situation. The current new jujube purchase price is mainly in the range of 6.5 - 7.5 yuan/kg, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [17]. Pigs - **Price and Inventory Information**: The futures price of the main pig contract (1h2601) was 12185 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.21% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12490 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory was 3839.01 million heads, an increase of 56.61 million heads [19]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the short term, the pig supply pressure is expected to increase in Q4, and the terminal demand is gradually stabilizing. The slaughter rate of key enterprises decreased slightly, and the pork sales volume increased [20][21].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] - Core views on various metals: Gold is expected to experience a pullback adjustment in the short - term but maintains long - term strategic value; silver is recommended for long - term buying; copper is recommended for long - term holding; zinc is expected to rebound with limited upside and is a short - term bearish option; lead's price rebound is under pressure; tin's price is short - term strong; aluminum's price is short - term strong; nickel's price is under pressure and weak; industrial silicon is expected to rebound; polysilicon is recommended for long - term holding; and lithium carbonate is recommended for long - term holding [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - G2 relations have eased, but Powell's statement was unexpected. Short - term focus is on when gold and silver will stop falling [3] Basic Logic - Powell cooled the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. The Fed's "dovish" action was accompanied by a "hawkish" guidance. The probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly [4] - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates, and the market expects more cuts [4] - Attention is on the G2 leaders' meeting [4] - In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term focus on when gold and silver will stop falling. For domestic gold, pay attention to the 900 support level. Silver has strong support at 11000. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Both Shanghai and London copper prices reached record highs [8] Industry Logic - Trump revoked strict emission restrictions on copper smelters and provided a two - year compliance exemption. SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October and a contraction in the fourth quarter [8] - High copper prices have curbed demand, and downstream buyers are hesitant. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises decreased [8] Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see if copper can break through the 90,000 mark. Short - term copper long positions should take profit, and avoid chasing high prices. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should use options for protection [9] Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Zinc continued to rebound but was under pressure at the 22,500 level [11] Industry Logic - Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined, and the profit loss of refined zinc enterprises has slightly expanded [11] - The "Silver October" peak season was lackluster, and demand was weak. The domestic zinc ingot export window opened, and domestic inventories increased slightly [11] Strategy Recommendation - Zinc's upside is limited after the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades. In the long run, zinc supply will increase while demand decreases. It is a bearish option in the sector [12] Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices should be chased with caution, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend [14] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. In China, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 44.05 million tons in early October, and inventories increased slightly [15] - The domestic alumina industry's profit has shrunk significantly, and some high - cost enterprises are facing losses. The market is in an oversupply situation in the short term [15] Strategy Recommendation - Shanghai aluminum should take profit on short - term long positions. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises [16] Group 6: Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices fell under pressure, and stainless steel's rebound was under pressure [18] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. The supply of nickel ore from Indonesia has become more stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate [19] - The performance of the stainless steel terminal consumption peak season needs further observation. The expected production increase of stainless steel will put pressure on inventory reduction [19] Strategy Recommendation - Nickel and stainless steel should be put on hold for now. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [20] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 rose and then fell, with a slight increase in positions throughout the day [22] Industry Logic - The fundamentals have improved significantly. Total inventory has decreased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the downstream material factories' raw material inventory has been consumed rapidly [23] - Although supply is still growing, production in Sichuan has decreased slightly. Terminal demand remains strong, and the supply - demand structure has improved [23] Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a low - buying strategy in the range of 82,200 - 84,500 [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core Views - **Gold and Silver**: Due to the easing of Sino - US relations, reduced risk - aversion sentiment, the market's full pricing of central bank interest rate cuts, and the Philippine central bank's intention to sell gold, gold and silver prices are falling. In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels (900 for gold and 11000 for silver). In the long - term, gold's strategic allocation value remains unchanged due to the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical order reshaping, and continued central bank purchases. Silver is affected by gold price fluctuations, and long - term demand is expected to increase due to global policy stimulus [1][3][4]. - **Copper**: Copper prices have fully priced in the optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino - US relations. In the short - term, it is recommended to move stop - profits for long positions and avoid blind chasing. Be vigilant against the risk of a high - level pullback. In the long - term, copper is still bullish due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][7]. - **Zinc**: With the start of the "super macro week", zinc continues to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long - term supply is relatively loose. After the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades, the upside space may be limited. In the long - term, zinc supply increases while demand decreases, so it is recommended to sell on rallies [1][10]. - **Lead**: Lead production enterprises in Hebei and other places are affected by environmental protection controls. Although the downstream terminal consumption peak season is fair, the production cuts of medium and large - scale lead - acid battery enterprises drag down consumption, and lead prices face pressure in the short - term [1]. - **Tin**: Overseas tin mine production in Myanmar and imports are still restricted. The overall operating rate of Yunnan smelters has rebounded, and the peak consumption season of downstream tin has led to a reduction in tin ingot inventory. Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten, while domestic supply is stable. The inventory of aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas continues to decline during the peak season, and supported by the peak - season performance of terminal consumption, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - **Nickel**: Overseas disturbances in Indonesia's nickel ore supply have weakened, and domestic refined nickel supply is sufficient. Pure nickel inventory has significantly accumulated. Although there is some support from the peak consumption season of downstream nickel sulfate, nickel prices are under pressure [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There are no obvious contradictions in the fundamentals. The increase in northern production starts has slowed down, and the number of furnace shutdowns in the south is gradually increasing as the dry season approaches. Downstream demand is flat, and there are expectations of polysilicon production cuts in the future. Prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to operate within a range [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a situation of strong expectations versus weak reality. The lack of further market news on capacity integration has disappointed the market sentiment. However, with effective cost support and firm spot prices, buying on dips is more cost - effective [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term marginal improvement of the fundamentals is highly certain, with total inventory decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and downstream material factories accelerating raw material inventory consumption. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and buy after sufficient corrections [1][21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Due to the easing of Sino - US relations, the Philippine central bank's intention to sell gold, and the alleviation of the London silver squeeze, gold and silver prices continue to adjust. Funds are flowing out of the market [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The results of Sino - US negotiations, the Philippine central bank's plan to sell up to $5 billion of gold reserves, the alleviation of the tight situation in the London silver market (the London silver lease rate dropped from 34.9% to 5.6%), and the upcoming "super central bank week" with the Fed likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points while the European and Japanese central banks maintain existing rates. In the long - term, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, pay attention to the stop - falling situation of gold and silver. In China, focus on the 900 support for gold and the 11000 support for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates sharply at a high level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Trump revoked strict emission restrictions on copper smelters set by the Biden administration, and SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October. High copper prices have led to downstream hesitation, an increase in domestic social copper inventory, and a decline in LME copper inventory. COMEX copper inventory is high but mostly locked. High copper prices also suppress demand, and the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod - making enterprises has declined [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions should move stop - profits to lock in gains. Avoid blind chasing and be vigilant against high - level pullback risks. Long - term strategic long positions can be held. For industrial hedging, options protection can be added, positions can be reduced, and strict risk control should be implemented. In the short - term, Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of [85500, 88500] yuan/ton, and LME copper in the range of [10600, 11200] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc continues to rebound, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 22500 level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, and overseas zinc mine production in the second quarter increased by 17.72% year - on - year. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined, and the profit loss of refined zinc enterprises has slightly expanded. The "Silver October" peak season is lackluster, demand is under pressure, and the galvanizing operating rate has declined. The domestic zinc ingot export window is open, and domestic inventory has slightly increased while the risk of a soft squeeze on LME zinc inventory persists [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the start of the "super macro week", zinc continues to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long - term supply is loose. After the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades, the upside space may be limited. Pay attention to the resistance levels at 22500 and 22800. In the long - term, zinc supply increases while demand decreases, so it is a short - side allocation in the sector. Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of [22200, 22800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc in the range of [2980, 3080] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure at a high level, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are continued expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity reached 4.405 million tons with an operating rate of 96%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, while the aluminum rod inventory increased. The operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing enterprises remained flat. For alumina, the port inventory of imported bauxite is still at a high level, and some high - cost enterprises are reducing production, but the market remains in an oversupply situation in the short - term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on Shanghai aluminum long positions on rallies in the short - term, pay attention to changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of [21000 - 21800] [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure and weak, and stainless steel faces pressure in its rebound [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the impact of Indonesia on nickel ore supply has weakened, and nickel ore supply is relatively sufficient. Domestic pure nickel inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. For stainless steel, the peak - season performance in the terminal consumption field needs further observation, and the inventory in major markets has increased. The expected increase in domestic stainless steel production will increase market pressure, and the terminal demand in the spot market is weak [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, and the main nickel contract is expected to trade in range of [120000 - 122000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC260 has a high - level pullback with a slight increase in positions throughout the day [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The marginal improvement of the fundamentals is highly certain, with total inventory decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and the post - holiday destocking accelerating. Although supply is still increasing, production in Sichuan has slightly decreased due to a shortage of domestic lithium spodumene, and salt - lake production capacity is ramping up. Terminal demand remains strong, and the production of related materials is increasing [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profits on long positions in the range of [80500 - 82500] [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the energy chemical products are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, and urea. Some products are in a "Bearish Consolidation" or "Bearish Rebound" state, such as L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash [1][2][6] Core Views - The overall energy chemical market is under pressure, mainly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost - side fluctuations, and geopolitical influences. Most products are expected to face downward pressure in the medium - to - long term, but short - term rebounds may occur due to cost fluctuations and market sentiment [1][2][6] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: OPEC+ may continue to increase production, leading to an oversupply of crude oil. The market has digested the risk of sanctions against Russia, and the driving force of oil prices has shifted to supply. The consumption off - season has begun, and the pressure of oversupply is gradually increasing. There are also geopolitical and macro - economic factors at play [1][9] - Strategy: Hold short positions, buy call options to control risks, and lightly add short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 465] [1][11] LPG - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The risk of US sanctions against Russia has been released, and the cost - side oil price has corrected. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical operating rate has increased, with relatively strong demand on the demand side. The port inventory has decreased [1][15] - Strategy: Buy put options and wait for the release of risks. Lightly try short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [1][16] L - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches is neutral. The import volume in October is large, and there is an expectation of further increase. The supply will continue to be in a loose pattern. The demand peak season has arrived, but the restocking motivation is insufficient. The oil price may decline in the medium term, and the cost support is insufficient [1][20] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term follow - up with cost rebounds. Pay attention to the range of L [6900 - 7100] [20] PP - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: The upstream device maintenance intensity has increased, but the demand is facing high destocking pressure at the end of the "Silver October". The oil price may continue to fall in the medium term, and the cost support of oil - based production is insufficient [1][25] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term follow - up with cost rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PP [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: Low - valuation support, but single - product losses are increasing, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is continuously compressed. The export volume in September maintained a high growth rate, and there is an expectation of rush - exporting during the Indian policy window period. New production capacity has been basically released this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the upstream marginal devices can reduce production beyond expectations to alleviate the oversupply contradiction [1][29] - Strategy: The market maintains a high contango structure. The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Short - term lightly participate in rebounds. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The supply side has seen a continuous reduction in the operating load of domestic and foreign devices. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are at relatively high levels this year. The oil price has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the rebound height may be limited [1][31] - Strategy: Take profits on short - term long positions, look for opportunities to arrange short positions at high prices, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities by expanding downstream processing margins (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the range of PX [6530 - 6630] [31][32] PTA - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: A new device is about to be put into production, but the processing fee is low, and the device maintenance intensity is expected to increase. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability is to be observed. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The internal upward driving force is limited in the short term, and it follows the oil price fluctuations [2][34] - Strategy: Take profits on previous long positions. Look for opportunities to arrange short positions on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities by expanding TA processing margins (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the range of TA [4550 - 4630] [2][35] Ethylene Glycol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. New devices are being put into production, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The terminal consumption has improved in the short term, but the stability is to be observed. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward driving force [2][37] - Strategy: Close short - term long positions and look for opportunities to arrange short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [4050 - 4120] [2][38] Methanol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: High inventory suppresses the spot price, and the port basis is still weak. The supply side has a certain pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of seasonal production reduction of gas - based methanol in the southwest region and the impact of Iranian "gas restrictions". The demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak and stable [2][41] - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously (take profits in batches at low prices), look for opportunities to arrange long positions on the 01 contract at low prices, and pay attention to MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to the range of MA [2210 - 2260] [2][43] Urea - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Main Logic: The supply is relatively loose, and the daily production is expected to return to a high level. The domestic agricultural demand has slightly improved, and the export is still good. The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the cost support still exists. However, the winter agricultural demand and export may have limited positive effects [3][45] - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously, and lightly try long positions in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of UR [1625 - 1650] [3][47] Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Main Logic: Geopolitical sanctions risks have been released, and the cost - side oil price has corrected. The demand is expected to increase with the cooling of the weather, but the supply is sufficient [6] - Strategy: No specific strategy is mentioned in the text Asphalt - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Main Logic: It follows the cost - side oil price correction. The supply - demand fundamentals are relatively loose, and the valuation is relatively high [6] - Strategy: Buy put options [6] Glass - Core View: Bearish Rebound [6] - Main Logic: After the festival, the enterprise inventory has increased counter - seasonally for three consecutive weeks, and the market has turned into a contango structure. The domestic demand is weak, and the supply is under pressure [6] - Strategy: In the short term, rely on the 5 - day moving average for short - term long positions, and be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [6] Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish Rebound [6] - Main Logic: It rebounds following the black building materials sector. The factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute level is still high. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply is expected to increase [6] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Continue to hold long positions in the alkali - glass spread [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that most futures varieties in the steel and related industries are expected to show a short - term bullish trend but with certain risks and limitations. For example, although there are some positive factors such as policy support and demand recovery, there are also issues like high inventory and weak overall supply - demand balance [1] Summary by Variety Steel Products 1. **Rebar** - **Variety View**: Weekly production and apparent demand have both increased, and inventory continues to decline. However, both supply and demand are lower than last year, inventory is slightly high, and the inventory reduction speed is average. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Driven by the new regulations on capacity replacement in the steel industry and regional production control, it may run with a short - term volatile and slightly stronger trend [5] 2. **Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Variety View**: Apparent demand has increased, production has remained flat with a slight increase, and inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than in previous years [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Although the molten iron output is still high and the overall steel supply is at a high level, it may run with a short - term phased stronger trend due to policy support [5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Molten iron output has decreased again, and steel mills and ports have accumulated inventory. Overseas ore shipments have increased at a high level, but arrivals have significantly decreased. Steel enterprises' profits have been rapidly compressed, and the static fundamentals are moderately weak. However, the easing of Sino - US relations has released positive macro - level signals [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, with short - term ore prices expected to run with a volatile and slightly stronger trend [9] Coke - **Variety View**: The second round of price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations for a third - round increase. The game between coke producers and steel mills is obvious. Recently, coke producers' profits have decreased, and the scope of cost inversion has expanded. Steel mills' inventory levels are low, and some are still increasing inventory. Coke supply and demand are relatively balanced [11] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, expected to follow coking coal and run within a certain range in the short term [12] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Coal mine production has decreased month - on - month. The supply side has been greatly affected by safety inspections and over - production verifications recently. The absolute level of molten iron output is high, ensuring raw material demand. Supply and demand are relatively balanced with few contradictions. There are occasional disturbances on the origin supply side, supporting the market performance, but there is some pressure for short - term price increases [15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, and be cautious about chasing long positions [16] Ferroalloys 1. **Silicomanganese** - **Variety View**: The production area supply level is still at a high level compared to the same period. After the release of the new round of replenishment demand in downstream steel procurement, the difficulty of inventory reduction in the production area has further increased [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, the cost side provides some support for prices, but the upward driving force is still relatively limited. Be cautious about chasing long positions [20] 2. **Ferrosilicon** - **Variety View**: Both supply and demand have weakened. Enterprise inventory has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts has continued to decline. Pay attention to the situation of re - warehousing after cancellation [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: Expected to follow coal prices and run within a certain range in the short term. Be cautious about chasing long positions [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, Ethylene Glycol (MEG), Methanol, Urea, Asphalt [1][3][4][5][8] - **Cautiously bullish**: PTA, Natural Gas [3][8] - **Bearish rebound**: L, PP, PVC, Soda Ash [1][8] - **Bearish consolidation**: Glass [8] 2. Report's Core Views - **Overall**: The energy and chemical market is influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand dynamics, macro - policies, and cost fluctuations. Most products face supply - side pressures, while some demand shows short - term improvement but lacks long - term stability [1][3][4][5][8] - **Specific products**: - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ may expand production, leading to a supply surplus and downward pressure on oil prices [1][11][12] - **LPG**: Cost - side oil price correction leads to a weakening of LPG [1][17] - **PTA**: New device production and potential maintenance may balance supply, with short - term upward momentum due to "anti - involution" hype, but long - term supply remains loose [3][36] - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses prices, but demand shows slight improvement, and there is potential for long - term price increase [4][43] - **Urea**: Supply is relatively abundant, and although demand improves slightly, winter demand and export incentives are limited [5][47] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market situation**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.31%, Brent down 0.46%, and SC up 0.47% [10] - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical factors cause price fluctuations, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down [11] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. Indian imports and exports show certain changes, and US inventory data varies [12] - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, add short positions lightly, and focus on the range of [460 - 470] for SC [13] 3.2 LPG - **Market situation**: On October 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,260 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [16] - **Basic logic**: It follows the cost - side oil price, with short - term geopolitical risk mitigation leading to a cost - side correction [17] - **Strategy**: Try short positions lightly and focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] [18] 3.3 L - **Market situation**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,999 yuan/ton [21] - **Basic logic**: Social inventory is slightly reduced, but supply remains loose, and cost support is insufficient [22] - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices, and follow the cost for short - term rebounds, focusing on the range of [6900 - 7100] [22] 3.4 PP - **Market situation**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [26] - **Basic logic**: Spot price increase lags, demand faces de - stocking pressure, and oil - based cost support is weak [27] - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices, follow the cost for short - term rebounds, and focus on the range of [6600 - 6800] [27] 3.5 PVC - **Market situation**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic logic**: Low valuation supports, but single - product losses expand, and supply - demand surplus persists [31] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices, and participate in short - term rebounds lightly, focusing on the range of [4600 - 4800] [31] 3.6 PX - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices show certain changes [32] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device load decreases, demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the long - term, and cost - side oil price rebound is limited [33] - **Strategy**: Take profits on short - term long positions, look for opportunities to short at high prices, and consider arbitrage by expanding downstream processing fees, focusing on the range of [6550 - 6660] [34] 3.7 PTA - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory shows a decreasing trend [35] - **Basic logic**: New device production and potential maintenance relieve supply pressure, and short - term demand improves slightly [36] - **Strategy**: Lightly chase long positions, stop losses on short positions, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the long - term, focusing on the range of [4580 - 4660] [37] 3.8 MEG - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory slightly accumulates [38] - **Basic logic**: Domestic device load decreases, overseas slightly increases, and supply pressure is expected to rise [39] - **Strategy**: Close short - term long positions, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focusing on the range of [4070 - 4140] [40] 3.9 Methanol - **Market situation**: High inventory suppresses prices, and demand shows slight improvement [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side pressure remains, demand improves slightly, and cost support is weak but stable [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully, consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, focusing on the range of [2240 - 2280] [45] 3.10 Urea - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory accumulates [46] - **Basic logic**: Supply is abundant, demand improves slightly, but winter demand and export incentives are limited [47] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully, and consider long positions in the medium - to - long - term, focusing on the range of [1615 - 1645] [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level decline, strategic allocation value remains unchanged in the medium to long term [1] - Silver: High-level decline, long-term bullish after stabilization [1] - Copper: Long-term holding, short-term profit-taking [1] - Zinc: Rebound, short-term upside limited, medium to long-term bearish [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then decline [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range-bound operation [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various non-ferrous metals and new energy metals, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides insights into the short-term and long-term price trends, as well as investment strategies for each metal [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Due to the easing of Sino-US relations and the reduction of risk aversion, the prices of gold and silver have significantly adjusted. In the short term, risk assets have risen sharply, leading to an obvious outflow of funds from safe-haven gold and silver. However, in the long term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern, potentially maintaining a long-term upward trend [2][3][4]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver. For domestic gold, focus on the 900 support level, and for silver, focus on the effectiveness of the 11000 support level. Long-term value investors should continue to hold their positions [4]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The price of copper has reached a new high this year, but it has given back some of its gains overnight. The market has fully priced in the optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino-US relations. In the short term, downstream demand is suppressed by high prices, and social inventories have increased. However, in the long term, copper is expected to benefit from the shortage of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [5][6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short-term long positions should be moved to take profits, and investors should avoid blindly chasing high prices. Long-term strategic long positions should be held, and industrial hedging should consider adding option protection. In the short term, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 86000 - 90000 yuan/ton, and the price of London copper is expected to trade in the range of 10600 - 11200 US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices have continued to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long-term supply is relatively loose. The silver ten peak season has not been prosperous, and demand is under pressure. The domestic zinc ingot export window has opened, and domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas LME zinc inventories are at risk of a soft squeeze [8][9][10]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the upside space may be limited after the short-term macro policy stimulus fades. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the two resistance levels at 22500 and 22800. In the medium to long term, zinc is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, remaining a short position in the sector. The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, and the price of London zinc is expected to trade in the range of 2980 - 3080 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Aluminum prices have continued to rise, and the price of alumina has stabilized. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached a high level, and domestic inventories have decreased. The demand side is relatively stable, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has remained flat [11][12][13]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be between 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel prices have rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel prices have also rebounded. Overseas, the supply of nickel ore has become relatively stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate. The terminal consumption of stainless steel is in the peak season, but the performance is average, and the market is under pressure to destock [15][16][17]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is expected to be between 120000 - 123000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The price of lithium carbonate has shown a relatively strong trend. The fundamental situation has improved significantly, with total inventories decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and the destocking rhythm accelerating after the holiday. Although the supply side continues to grow, the production in Sichuan has decreased slightly due to the shortage of domestic lithium spodumene, while the incremental contribution from the ramping up of salt lake production capacity. Terminal demand remains strong, and the production schedule for November is still relatively high [19][20][21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Long positions should be held, and investors can consider adding positions on pullbacks. The price of the main contract LC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 81000 - 84000 yuan/ton [21][22].