| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但近日美国市场对于美豆出口乐观前景出现质疑，疲软的出口装 | | 豆粕 | | 船同比数据，导致美豆高位陷入整理。本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比减少，但同比 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 偏高，短期供应暂充足。市场传言海关大豆进口延迟十五天，叠加南美天气干扰仍 | | | | 存，昨日豆粕暂止跌整理，原空单可考虑逐步获利了结。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | 短线调整 | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。昨日菜粕小幅反弹。短期走势暂以 2270 元以上 | | | | 区间行情对待。关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 12 月东南亚逐步进入减产的预期，限制棕榈油调整空间，关注企稳看多机会。关注 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 马棕榈油本月出口数据表现。 | | 豆油 | | 国内豆油库存环比略下降，但仍高于五年同期。 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉能化观点 品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 PX/PTA ★ 谨慎追空 PTA 加工费整体偏低，装置检修力度较大（虹港石化检修、逸盛宁波停车 检修 5 周、逸盛大连、逸盛海南装置停车中，英力士、四川能投、独山能 源 1#检修中），供应端压力有所缓解；下游需求相对较好但预期走弱（织 造订单持续下行）。成本端支撑弱化。短期来看，供需偏紧，但 12 月存 累库预期。 乙二醇 ★ 偏空 国内乙二醇装置整体开工负荷下降（茂名石化月初停车 2 月，中海壳牌 2 期本周停车检修 10 天，中化泉州停车 2 月，富德能源本周停车检修，盛 虹炼化 100 万吨装置停车至明年 5 月。值得注意的是，煤化工前期检修装 置复产，整体有所提负），海外装置整体也略有降负（台湾中纤、东联停 车，伊朗 Morvarid12 月上停车检修 3 周、Farsa 计划 12 月底停车检修 2-3 周；美国南亚装置停车中、GCGV 降负运行）；下游需求相对较好但预期 走弱。12 月存累库预期。乙二醇估值偏低，但缺乏向上驱动。短期跟随成 本波动，原油短期反弹但不改承压态势。 甲醇 ★ 偏空 太仓现货止跌，港口库存环比 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 螺纹产量及表需环比继续下降，绝对水平均为同期最低。库存去化速度较正常。宏观政 策方面比较平淡，对行情提振作用有限。铁水产量环比下降至 230 万吨以下，对原料需 | | ★ | | 求形成压力。螺纹在弱驱动、低估值影响下中期或维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需继续小幅下降，库存降幅不大，维持近年来同期最高水平，去库不畅。 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 现货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。中期维持区间运行，相对螺纹或阶段性偏弱。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续有继续减量预期，关注其降幅。钢厂降库，港口增库。 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 外矿发到货双降，阶段性支撑矿价。经济工作会议阶段性提振矿价，但情绪交易过后， | | | | 矿价仍承压。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第二轮提降，部分地区受环保要求主动执行限产措施，焦企生产积极性尚 | | 焦炭 ★★ | 看空 | 可，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，对原料端形成压制。自身供 | | | | ...

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 4 | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 短期市场流动性风险偏好较好，美联储或重启 QE，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。 | | | 长线持有 | 印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银与黄金走势逻辑劈叉，白银短期交易交割逻辑。市场押注降息持续和供需缺口 | | | 长线持有 连续 | 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。全球经济刺激、流动性维持宽松， | | ★★ | | 长期做多逻辑不变 | | | | 宏微共振下，铜续创历史新高，建议前期多单继续持有，逢高移动止盈，中长期， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需 | | ★ | | 求爆发背景下对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 国内经济工作会议召开，重提反内卷并强调实施更加积极的财政政策。锌 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 原油 | | 过剩格局未变，油价反弹偏空。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押 一艘委内瑞拉油轮；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均 | | | | 累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄 | | | | 乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下； | | | | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | LPG | | | | ★ | 反弹偏空 | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | | 盘面维持升水结构，企业库存窄幅增加。国内开工季节性回升，月内到港 | | L | 空头延续 | 资源充足，供给端整体依旧充足。棚膜旺季逐步见顶，农膜开工率三连降。 | | ★ | | 油价中期仍存下移风险，成本支撑不足 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Long - term Hold**: Gold, Silver, Copper [1] - **Pressured**: Zinc, Lead, Tin [1] - **Rebound Pressured**: Aluminum [1] - **Weak**: Nickel, Industrial Silicon [1] - **Relatively Strong**: Polysilicon [1] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Lithium Carbonate [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest rate decision, geopolitical factors, and policy changes have significant impacts on the prices of various metals. For example, the Fed's December interest rate cut and policy stance shift affect gold and silver prices; Indonesia's gold tax increase supports gold prices in the medium - to - long - term. - The supply - demand relationship of different metals varies. Copper is affected by tight copper concentrate supply and green demand; zinc shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand; aluminum has an over - supply situation in alumina and a slowdown in aluminum ingot destocking. - Different investment strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market conditions, such as long - term holding for gold, silver, and copper, and short - selling on rebounds for zinc [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a key shift in policy stance. Indonesia increased the gold tax rate. There was a short - term "dovish" trading in the market after the Fed's decision, and the Fed announced to start buying short - term Treasury bonds [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The Fed's policy entered a "data - dependent" waiting mode, with internal differences. Indonesia's gold tax policy reduces the supply of low - value - added gold and provides structural support for gold prices. Long - term gold benefits from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has a delivery risk event [2][3]. - **Trading Logic**: Long - term gold has investment value, and for silver, long - term positions can be held while being cautious in the short - term [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, pay attention to the 935 support for domestic gold. Long - term value - based positions should be held. Be vigilant about the high volatility risk of silver in the short - term [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the copper market was in a high - level shock. The prices of various copper products showed different changes, and there were also changes in trading volume, inventory, and basis [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight. The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load. High copper prices suppress demand, and the consumption is in the off - season. COMEX copper continues to draw global copper inventories [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, hold copper long positions and set trailing stops when the price rises. In the medium - to - long - term, be optimistic about copper. Short - term, pay attention to the range of 【90000, 95000】 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 【11000, 12000】 US dollars/ton for London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc oscillated in a narrow range at a high level. The prices of zinc products showed a downward trend, and there were changes in trading volume, inventory, and basis [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate continued to decline, and the supply was expected to shrink. Consumption entered the off - season, and the overseas LME zinc inventory increased while the domestic social inventory decreased slightly [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, zinc oscillates at a high level with limited upside space. Sellers can set up short positions at high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of 【22800, 23300】 for Shanghai zinc and 【3000, 3100】 US dollars/ton for London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price rebounded under pressure, and the alumina market was weak [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas bauxite shipment has returned to normal, and the alumina surplus continues. The electrolytic aluminum maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic aluminum ingot destocking slows down. The consumption off - season effect is obvious [10][12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profits on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of the aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is 【21500 - 22300】 [13]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounded under pressure, and the stainless - steel market was also under pressure [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The impact of overseas production cuts in Indonesia gradually weakened. The terminal consumption of stainless steel entered the off - season, and the stainless - steel social inventory increased slightly [14][16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless - steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is 【115000 - 118000】 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, with increased positions and volume, rising more than 2% [19]. - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks. The terminal demand remains strong, and the price has no significant downside space. It will correct recently and wait for the opportunity to go long after stabilizing [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of 【94800 - 97500】 [21]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 ★ | 谨慎看空 | 螺纹产量及表需环比环比下降，库存正常去化。杭州地区库存绝对水平虽仍较高，但已 降幅已正常。螺纹自身基本面相对平衡。铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多，对 | | | | 建筑钢材影响较大。钢材整体缺少强驱动，或维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量及表需均小幅下降，库存变化不大，维持近年来同期最高水平，去库不畅。现 | | ★ | | 货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动，热卷表现或继续弱于螺纹。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续有继续减量预期，关注其降幅。钢厂增库，港口增库。 | | ★ | 空单减持 | 外矿发到货双降，阶段性支撑矿价。减产主导下，矿价承压。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第二轮提降，焦企生产积极性尚可，部分地区受环保要求主动执行限产措 | | 焦炭 | | 施，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多。自身 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 供需结构维持宽松，前期盘面快速下行后行情或有反复，但整体维持下行趋势，谨慎 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term adjustment**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term consolidation**: Palm oil [1] - **Short - term bullish oscillation**: Soybean oil [1] - **Range - bound oscillation**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Upside pressure**: Cotton [1] - **Short - term rebound**: Red dates [1] - **Rebound and sell short**: Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report Soybean Meal - The purchase of US soybeans has started, but the US market has doubts about the optimistic outlook for US soybean exports. Weak export shipment data has led to a consolidation of US soybeans at high levels. This week, the latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but were higher year - on - year, with short - term supply sufficient. The US Department of Agriculture's December report on US soybeans was basically flat month - on - month, and the ending stocks were also flat. There was a short - term adjustment, and there was a tendency for a stop - fall consolidation. Short - selling should be cautious [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but port inventories are still higher year - on - year. In the off - season of consumption, spot prices are reduced to destock. There is no major expected change in the fundamentals. It follows the trend of soybean meal, with a short - term adjustment. The short - term trend is treated as a range above 2270 yuan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of China - Canada trade [1][7]. Palm oil - On November, Malaysian palm oil inventory data showed a month - on - month increase, maintaining a stock - building state, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of December decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. Weak data depressed the futures price, and it closed down yesterday. It is in short - term consolidation [1][10]. Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but was still higher than the five - year average. It closed slightly down yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - growing areas. It is in a short - term bullish oscillation, and a large - range market is expected this week. Attention should be paid to the boost from the palm oil side [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. The port inventory has continued to decline month - on - month, but there is diversification in imports. The latest data on Canadian rapeseed shows that the 2025 production is higher than market expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. Rapeseed oil rebounded technically after hitting a previous low yesterday, and the stabilization needs to be observed. It is in range - bound oscillation [1]. Cotton - The US cotton harvest is nearing the end, and Brazil has started the new - season cotton planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to move in an oscillatory manner. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, and the sales have been relatively fast. The circulation of low - basis resources in the spot market has decreased, and the cost - side support has increased, but the upward adjustment of the production forecast needs to be noted. The downstream textile enterprises' cash flow has been repaired, and the demand resilience has been reflected. The narrowing of the decline in foreign trade in November has further supported the cotton price, but there is still pressure from high inventory and a dense hedging pressure area. It is under upside pressure [1][12][14]. Red Dates - At the end of the acquisition, the spot price rebound has slowed down the downward trend. With the peak of new - crop listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the market volatility will increase. High inventory still exerts obvious pressure on the price rebound. In a situation of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. Most of the premium caused by speculation about a large - scale production cut of new - season red dates since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of the futures market has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. The spot price has stopped falling under the cooling background. Short - term rebound opportunities are recommended to be observed [1][18]. Live Pigs - The short - and medium - term market supply pressure is still high, and the demand increase is limited. The spot price is difficult to support. The futures market is disturbed by epidemic prevention and control and macro - sentiment, and there is differentiation in the price difference between contracts. The contract 03 is more likely to be disturbed by short - term funds. For contract 01, the market has started to trade the expectation of the peak - season curing demand and the large - scale slaughter in the second half of the month, and the market volatility is expected to increase. For contract 01, short - term long - position risks need to be avoided. The contract 03 lacks fundamental support but has intense capital games. Attention can be paid to short - selling on rebounds and the 3 - 5 reverse - spread opportunity. Attention should be paid to the spot price follow - up and curing situation [1][21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 937 million tons, a decrease of 20.60 million tons month - on - month and an increase of 227.49 million tons year - on - year. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 715.52 million tons, a decrease of 18.44 million tons (2.51%) month - on - month and an increase of 168.49 million tons (30.80%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 116.19 million tons, a decrease of 4.13 million tons (3.43%) month - on - month and an increase of 48.14 million tons (70.74%) year - on - year. The physical inventory days of soybean meal in 50 feed enterprises were 8.49 days, an increase of 0.32 days from the previous period and 0.77 days from the same period last year. The domestic supply - demand fundamentals have changed little, the oil mill crushing volume remains relatively high, and the soybean meal de - stocking process is slow, which suppresses the rise of the spot basis [4]. Rapeseed Meal - As of December 5, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, flat month - on - month; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons month - on - month; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, flat month - on - month. The rapeseed meal spot market is dull, downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is cautious, the overall trading activity is insufficient, the delivery process is slow, and the effective demand release is limited. There is no strong driver in the off - season of consumption, and it follows the trend of soybean meal [7]. Palm Oil - As of December 5, 2025 (the 49th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 68.37 million tons, an increase of 3.02 million tons (4.62%) month - on - month and an increase of 16.70 million tons (32.32%) year - on - year. From December 1 - 10, the Malaysian palm oil export volume decreased by 16.41% compared with the same period last month. In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month, imports decreased by 36.12% month - on - month, exports decreased by 28.13% month - on - month, and inventory increased by 13.04% month - on - month [10]. Cotton - **International situation**: In the US, the new cotton harvest progress is 79%, and 123.7 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with an inspection progress of about 40.2%. In late November, the precipitation in the main cotton - growing areas increased, which was not conducive to the harvest. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is 1.6 - 2.0 million tons, and nearly 4.25 million tons have been purchased under the Minimum Support Price (MSP), but there was still rainfall in the south and central regions in late November, which was not conducive to MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the non - main producing areas have started sowing the 2026 new - season cotton, with expected heavy rainfall in the main producing areas by the end of November [12]. - **Domestic situation**: The new - cotton picking is basically completed, the inspection volume exceeds 495 million tons, and the sales progress is relatively fast. The total national production is expected to increase by 26 million tons to 768 million tons, and the new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. In October, the imported cotton volume was 22.3 million tons, almost flat month - on - month and 1.35 million tons higher than the same period. The national commercial inventory increased to 446 million tons, 15 million tons higher than the same period; the Xinjiang commercial inventory increased to 361 million tons, about 40 million tons higher than the same period; the inventory in the main inland provinces increased to 18.27 million tons, 0.16 million tons lower than the same period. The downstream demand has improved seasonally, the export decline in November has slowed down, and the textile and clothing export was 238.7 billion US dollars, a decrease of 5.1% year - on - year and an increase of 7.2% month - on - month [13]. Red Dates - **Supply**: The acquisition in Hotan, Qiemo, and Ruoqiang has ended, and the acquisition progress in other regions is about 80%. The prices in the producing areas are weak. In Kashgar, the acquisition of grey dates is coming to an end, with little unsold inventory, and jujube farmers have a price - holding attitude. In Aksu, the acquisition is also near the end, with a small amount of remaining inventory, and the price has risen slightly. In Alar, the acquisition is at the end, with little unsold inventory and a price increase [17]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons month - on - month and 270 tons lower than the same period [17]. - **Demand**: The trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly for new products, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. The demand in the Ruyifang market is average [17]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In November, the breeding side had active slaughter, with fierce competition and high pressure on large - scale enterprises. The overall plan completion was not ideal. In December, the planned slaughter increased by 3.2%. The short - and medium - term supply pressure is high, but the long - term supply pressure is expected to gradually ease as the number of fertile sows decreased to 39.90 million in October [20]. - **Demand**: With the cooling, the curing and enema activities in the southwest region have increased, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate has rebounded, and the market has gradually entered a situation of both supply and demand growth [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Polysilicon: Strong [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: The gold - silver ratio is approaching the historical low range, and attention should be paid to fluctuations. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver should not be chased high or shorted in the short term, and long - term positions should be held [2][3]. - Copper: The market sentiment is cautious. In the short term, it is recommended to move the stop - profit for previous long positions and wait for a rebound opportunity. In the medium and long term, copper is still bullish [4][6]. - Zinc: Macro and sector sentiment has cooled, and zinc prices are under pressure. In the medium and long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][9]. - Aluminum: Terminal demand is weakening, and aluminum prices are falling from high levels. It is recommended to stop profit and wait and see in the short term [10][13]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are under pressure due to off - season inventory. It is recommended to sell on rallies [14][17]. - Lithium carbonate: Total inventory continues to decline, and it is recommended to go long on dips [18][21]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market review**: Silver first broke through $60 per ounce, and traders bet on further Fed easing and supply shortages [2]. - **Basic logic**: Wait for the Fed's interest - rate meeting; US employment data is mixed; central banks continue to buy gold; long - term gold benefits from multiple factors, and silver's trading logic requires caution in the short term [2][3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 935. Long - term value - oriented positions should continue to be held. Be vigilant about the high - volatility risk of silver [3]. Copper - **Market review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and consolidating [4]. - **Industrial logic**: Global copper concentrate supply remains tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories are accumulating, but there is still a delivery risk [5]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, move the stop - profit for previous long positions and wait for a rebound. In the medium and long term, copper is still bullish. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai copper and London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market review**: Shanghai zinc is falling under pressure [7]. - **Industrial logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees are falling, and supply may shrink. Consumption is in the off - season, and short - term supply and demand are both weak, with inventory declining in the off - season [8]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure. Sell - hedging can be lightly positioned on rallies. In the medium and long term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai zinc and London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market review**: Aluminum prices' rebound is under pressure, and alumina continues to be weak [10]. - **Industrial logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs may increase, and demand is structurally differentiated. For alumina, the supply is in an over - supply situation [12]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, stop profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory and the price range of Shanghai aluminum [13]. Nickel - **Market review**: Nickel prices' rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel is under pressure [14]. - **Industrial logic**: Indonesia plans to cut nickel production, but inventories are rising. Stainless steel consumption is in the off - season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long term [16]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory and the price range of nickel [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market review**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and closed low, and the commodity market was weak in the afternoon [18]. - **Industrial logic**: Total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks. Terminal demand is strong, and prices have no room for a deep decline. There will be a correction recently, waiting for an opportunity to go long after stabilization [20]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Go long on dips in the range of [91000 - 95000] [21].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但近日美国市场对于美豆出口乐观前景出现质疑，疲软的出口装 | | | | 船同比数据，导致美豆高位陷入整理。本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比减少，但同比 | | 豆粕 | 短线调整 | 偏高，短期供应暂充足。美农 12 月报告有关美豆部分，环比基本持平，期末库存 | | ★ | | 环比持平，未出现期末库存调增的市场预期，但全球期末库存调增，美豆隔夜收跌。 | | | | 国内豆粕受外盘影响，预计日内维持偏弱运行。关注前低附近技术企稳情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。昨日菜粕跟随豆粕价格下跌。短期走势暂以 2270 | | | | 元以上区间行情对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 11 月马棕榈油前 30 日出口数据维持弱势，产量环比略减，降幅不及出口。11 月下 | | 棕榈油 ...