Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Short-term Rebound**: Soybean meal and soybean oil are expected to have short-term rebounds due to factors like inventory changes and positive market sentiments [1][3]. - **Stop Falling and Rebound**: Rapeseed meal is likely to stop falling and rebound, but a cautious view is recommended due to long - term supply changes [1][6]. - **Short - term Rebound**: Palm oil is expected to have a short - term rebound, yet chasing high prices should be done with caution [1][8]. - **Short - term Oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is predicted to have short - term oscillations, with its decline limited by the high basis [1]. - **Oscillatory Adjustment**: Cotton is expected to have oscillatory adjustments in the short - term, with potential for recovery in the long - term [1][12]. - **Short - term Rebound**: Jujube may experience a short - term rebound as high inventory reduction accelerates, but overall it is under pressure [1][14]. - **Beware of Callback**: For live pigs, there is a need to beware of callback pressure in both the near - term and far - term contracts [1][17]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory and Import**: This week, the latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month, and the estimated imports in February are lower compared to the same period last year, indicating an expected de - stocking phase [1][3]. - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: Positive talks between Chinese and US officials boosted market confidence in US soybean exports. Slow start of South American soybean harvest (Brazil's harvest rate is 2.3%, lower than the five - year average) and drought in some parts of Argentina provided fundamental support for prices [1][3]. - **Price Movement**: Soybean meal rebounded significantly from its low yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather in South America in the future [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Import and Supply**: There was zero rapeseed import in January, and the average monthly import in February and March is 120,000 tons, much lower than the same period last year. The spot inventory pressure of rapeseed meal has been alleviated, but the supply is tight, and the spot trading is light during the off - season [1][6]. - **Long - term Supply**: Although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and ending stocks, the easing of China - Canada trade relations and the reduction of the comprehensive import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% will significantly ease the domestic import supply in the long - term [1][6]. - **Price Outlook**: A cautious view is recommended for the bullish outlook on rapeseed meal [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Production and Export**: The latest data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of this month decreased significantly month - on - month, which is positive for market sentiment. Although the export data of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation in January [1][8]. - **Price Movement**: Palm oil continued to close higher yesterday. However, due to the recent high rebound, chasing high prices should be done with caution. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of Malaysian palm oil in January [1][8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: The January USDA data is slightly bullish for the ICE market. The decline of the US dollar index and the strength of the external bulk commodities provide support for the cotton market. The short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong [1][10][12]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic new cotton processing is basically completed, and the sales progress has slowed down. The raw material inventory pressure has further increased. The import side is gradually realizing the previous internal - external price difference pressure. On the demand side, domestic consumption is in the off - season, and textile mills are gradually on holiday at the end of the year, with weakening support. The market is also affected by the poor retail performance in December [1][11][12]. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to adjust weakly. In the long - term, considering the reduction in planting and the expectation of replenishment at home and abroad, attention should be paid to the recovery performance after the release of negative factors [1][12]. Jujube - **Supply and Demand**: The acquisition in the production areas is over, and the market supply has increased. At the same time, it has entered the winter consumption peak season. The high inventory reduction has accelerated, which may promote a short - term rebound [1][14]. - **Price Outlook**: The spot market is flat. With the peak of new product listing and the consumption peak season, the futures market fluctuates more. In the context of a loose supply - demand pattern, the overall trend is expected to be under pressure, but short - term rebound opportunities can be noted in the context of the cooling peak season [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Short - term Situation**: As of now, the slaughter progress in the first 10 days of January is relatively slow. As the time approaches the end of January, the pre - festival slaughter pressure increases. The recent spot price rebound has increased the willingness of group farms to slaughter. The current high standard - fat price difference has driven the entry of second - fattening, and the contradiction in the spot market may be postponed [1][16]. - **Medium - term Situation**: The number of new - born piglets in steel - linked sample enterprises in December increased month - on - month, and the feed efficiency of piglets continued to increase in December. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is difficult to improve significantly [16]. - **Long - term Situation**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in the fourth quarter, but the de - stocking speed was slow, and the far - month contracts face certain hedging pressure. The industry has been in a loss situation for more than 17 weeks, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of losses [16][17]. - **Price Outlook**: As the end of January approaches, the slaughter pressure increases, and the price support becomes more difficult. The demand side has declined due to the end of the stocking market. The near - month contracts may face increasing pressure, and the far - month contracts are also under pressure in the short - term [1][17].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) have a "Cautiously Bullish" rating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Demand decreased slightly month-on-month, production increased supported by profits, and inventory began to accumulate. Steel mill profits are average, and high raw material prices suppress restocking enthusiasm. Overall, it will maintain range-bound operation [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory decreased slightly but the absolute level is high and the de-stocking speed is still slow. Spot prices are relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market, and it will maintain range-bound operation in the medium term [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: In this period, both arrivals and shipments of overseas ore decreased. After the price decline, some steel enterprises showed purchasing interest, driving the ore price to strengthen periodically [1][6][7] - **Coke**: The first round of price hikes was blocked. After the recent increase in raw material coal prices, coke enterprises' losses deepened, but short-term production enthusiasm is still okay and supply decreased slightly month-on-month. Iron water production was basically flat month-on-month, and downstream restocking enthusiasm is average, mainly buying on demand. The market may fluctuate after the previous rapid decline on the futures market [1][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: Previously shut-down coal mines have gradually resumed production, supply increased month-on-month, and inventory started to accumulate. In terms of imports, port clearance volume has returned to the same high level as the same period, and spot prices are under pressure to fall. Downstream restocking mentality is cautious. The market may fluctuate after the previous rapid decline on the futures market [1][12][13] - **Ferromanganese**: Regional supply increased month-on-month, demand improved marginally, and inventory increased month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders has started one after another, and the recently announced tender prices are mostly concentrated between 5,870 - 5,940 yuan/ton, with the final price of a landmark steel mill at 5,920 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 150 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain range-bound operation in the short term [1][15][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the main production areas decreased slightly month-on-month, demand improved marginally, and inventory increased significantly. A new round of steel tenders has started one after another, and the final price of a landmark steel mill is 5,760 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the actions of other steel mills. It is expected to maintain range-bound operation in the short term [1][15][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **Rebar Futures**: The latest price of Rebar 01 is 3,190, down 2; Rebar 05 is 3,117; Rebar 10 is 3,162, up 3. The basis and spread data also show corresponding changes [2] - **Hot-rolled Coil Futures**: The latest price of Hot-rolled Coil 01 is 3,316, up 1; Hot-rolled Coil 05 is 3,287, up 1; Hot-rolled Coil 10 is 3,302, down 3. The basis and spread data also show corresponding changes [2] - **Coke Futures**: The latest price of Coke 1-month contract is 1,863.0, down 9.0; Coke 5-month contract is 1,688.0, up 4.5; Coke 9-month contract is 1,758.0, down 0.5. The basis and spread data also have corresponding changes [8] - **Coking Coal Futures**: The latest price of Coking Coal 1-month contract is 1,367.0, up 0.5; Coking Coal 5-month contract is 1,131.5, up 2.5; Coking Coal 9-month contract is 1,203.0, unchanged. The basis and spread data also have corresponding changes [11] - **Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon Futures**: For ferromanganese, the latest price of Manganese Silicon 01 is 5,910, down 4; Manganese Silicon 05 is 5,814, up 28; Manganese Silicon 09 is 5,860, up 16. For ferrosilicon, the latest price of Ferrosilicon 01 is 5,744; Ferrosilicon 05 and Ferrosilicon 09 also have corresponding price and spread data [14] 3.2 Weekly Data - **Coke**: The capacity utilization rate of all independent coke enterprises was 72.4%, down 0.1 percentage point; the daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills was 228.1, up 0.1; the daily average coke production of sample coking plants was 63.3, down 0.1; the daily average coke production of 247 steel mills was 46.4, down 0.2; sample coking plant coke inventory was 81.5, down 0.4; 247 steel mills' coke inventory was 661.6, up 11.3; inventory available days were 12.4 days, up 0.4 days; port coke inventory was 196.1, up 8.0; independent coking enterprise's profit per ton of coke was -65.0, down 20.0 [8] - **Coking Coal**: The sample coal washing plant's start-up rate was 61.5%, down 0.8 percentage points; the daily average clean coal production of sample coal washing plants was 52.1, unchanged; the daily average coke production of sample coking plants was 50.0, unchanged; the daily average coke production of 247 steel mills was 46.9, up 0.2; sample coking plant's coking coal inventory was 995.2, up 40.4; inventory available days were 15.0 days, up 0.6 days; 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 803.2, up 1.0; inventory available days were 12.9 days, unchanged; total port coking coal inventory was 289.4, down 9.5 [11] - **Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon**: The start-up rate of ferromanganese enterprises was 36.21%, up 0.15 percentage points; the start-up rate of ferrosilicon enterprises was 29.09%, down 0.12 percentage points; the output of 187 ferromanganese enterprises was 191,135, up 560; the inventory of 63 ferromanganese enterprises was 373,000, up 200; the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises was 98,400, down 300; the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises was 67,220, up 3,470 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical issues and the Fed's stance are key factors affecting precious metals. Gold and silver have long - term investment value due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. Copper has long - term potential due to supply shortages and green demand, but short - term fluctuations are affected by seasonality and market sentiment. Zinc shows a short - term rebound but is limited by weak fundamentals. Aluminum and nickel face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand. Industrial silicon and polysilicon have short - term rebound opportunities. Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish with supply - side disturbances [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold reached a new high due to geopolitical issues. SHFE gold was at 1087.58 with a - 0.43% daily change and a 3.40% weekly change; COMEX gold was at 4938 with a 2.11% daily change and a 7.33% weekly change. Silver also showed an upward trend. SHFE silver was at 23339 with a 0.90% daily change and a 0.65% weekly change; COMEX silver was at 96 with a 3.51% daily change and a 6.97% weekly change [2]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical issues such as Trump's rumored actions in Cuba and the weakening of the US dollar due to large - scale capital outflows from US dollar assets. Central banks continue to buy gold, and long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged. Silver's logic is dominated by gold's safe - haven property [1][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term holding. The short - term support for domestic gold is at 1040, and for domestic silver is at 21000. In 2026, the overall support for precious metals is still strong, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The 100,000 - yuan mark was regained after a tug - of - war. The closing price of SHFE copper was 100270, down 0.43% from the previous day [4]. - **Core Logic**: BHP slightly raised its copper production guidance for fiscal year 2026. In December 2025, refined copper imports decreased. Although it is currently the traditional off - season, the long - term supply - demand logic remains unchanged, with tight global copper concentrate supply and growing green demand for copper [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For existing long positions, use trailing stop - loss to lock in profits. New entrants should wait for a full correction. In the long - term, copper is still promising. Short - term, SHFE copper is in the range of [99500, 103000] yuan/ton, and LME copper is in the range of [12500, 13000] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The market sentiment improved, and zinc showed a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. The closing price of SHFE zinc was 24530, up 0.74% from the previous day [7]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink, and domestic new mine production increases are uncertain. Refined zinc production in December decreased, and downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates declined during the off - season [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long positions should take profits on rallies. Enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging to lock in profits. SHFE zinc is in the range of [24200, 24800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc is in the range of [3150, 3250] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices faced pressure in the short - term, and alumina stabilized at a low level [11]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was put into production, and inventory increased. The downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates showed a differentiated trend. The alumina market remained oversupplied [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For SHFE aluminum, take profits and wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23000 - 25000] [13]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices faced pressure in the short - term, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [15]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. Indonesia significantly reduced its nickel ore production target, and there were issues of illegal land occupation in some mines. Domestic pure nickel inventory increased, and stainless steel was in the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits and wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [133000 - 151000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and went high, hitting a new high during the session [18]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the news of canceling export tax rebates for lithium batteries, prices rose for two consecutive days, but then回调 due to the overall decline of the non - ferrous sector and exchange position - limit measures. The upstream lithium salt plants had high enthusiasm for production, and the new production capacity of material plants in 2026 provided support for rigid demand [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: High - level oscillation in the range of [16400 - 175000] [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Oscillating strongly [2] - Ethylene glycol: Oversold rebound [2] - Methanol: Cautiously avoid shorting [2] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX/PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, natural gas, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views and main logics for each product, considering factors such as supply - demand, cost, inventory, and geopolitical situations [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 2.08%, Brent down 2.91%, and domestic SC up 1.18%. As of January 16, US crude oil inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels to 426.04 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 5.97 million barrels to 256.9 million barrels, distillate inventories rose by 3.35 million barrels to 132.5 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserves increased by 0.8 million barrels to 414.5 million barrels [7][8][10]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term, the recent cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere drove up natural gas prices, which in turn led to an oil price rebound. The Middle East geopolitical situation has eased but remains uncertain. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of crude oil, with global crude oil inventories accelerating the accumulation, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices, so oil prices will enter a low - price range. Short - term, it is expected to rebound, but bearish in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of SC [430 - 440] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the PG main contract closed at 4,120 yuan/ton, up 1.38% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,480 (+10) yuan/ton, 4,428 (-39) yuan/ton, and 4,815 (-25) yuan/ton respectively [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly determined by the cost of crude oil, and crude oil prices are bearish in the long - term. In terms of supply - demand, the commodity volume remains stable, downstream chemical demand weakens, and inventories accumulate, making the LPG fundamentals bearish [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil, the price center is expected to continue to decline, and there is still room for LPG price compression. Pay attention to the range of PG [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price was 6,666 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The L05 basis was - 176 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has no obvious pressure. In the short - term, it fluctuates strongly following the chemical sector. Linear production scheduling has increased, but the spot price has not risen enough, and the basis continues to weaken. The device restart plan has increased this week, and the operating rate has risen to 85%. It is the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the terminal restocking is not sustainable. There is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the impact of the expected tax reform on naphtha tariffs on the olefin industry chain [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of L [6700 - 6950] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price was 6,624 yuan/ton, up 2.1%. The PP05 basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 34 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, it fluctuates strongly following the chemical sector. The cost of propylene maintains an upward trend. Pay attention to the impact of changes in naphtha consumption tax on the olefin industry chain. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. In January, the demand side is gradually entering the off - season, and downstream restocking power is insufficient. The shutdown ratio is 19%, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. PDH profits are compressed and remain at a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PP [6600 - 6750] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 closing price was 4,743 yuan/ton, down 1.3%. The V05 basis was - 243 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 118 yuan/ton [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: Social inventories are hitting new highs, and it is rising following the chemical sector. The spot price of liquid caustic soda has been falling continuously, and the comprehensive gross profit in Shandong has been compressed again. The cost support of marginal devices has improved. The FOB price of Tianjin calcium carbide method has decreased. In 2025, the export growth rate was 47%. There is a short - term phenomenon of rushing to export, but there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the long - term, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse. The main strategy is positive arbitrage between months. The fundamentals maintain a weak reality pattern. The domestic operating rate has increased to 80%, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the seasonal off - season, with no upward driving force [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of V [4750 - 4950] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: As of January 16, TA05 closed at 5,018 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 58 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 44 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee was 401.6 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Main Logic**: In terms of valuation, it is not low. The PTA processing fee has been repaired. On the supply side, domestic devices are overhauled as planned, and the overall overhaul intensity is high. On the demand side, downstream demand is seasonally weak, and polyester factories have announced overhaul plans for January and February. In terms of inventory, PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in January and February, but the pressure is not large. The cost side, PX, is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5260 - 5450] [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 closing price was 3,614 yuan/ton. The EG05 basis was - 101 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 104 yuan/ton [30]. - **Main Logic**: From a valuation perspective, it is relatively low. On the supply side, the domestic operating load has generally increased. Overseas devices have some changes and high overhaul expectations. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and polyester factories have announced overhaul plans for January and February. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January and February. It follows the cost fluctuation in the short - term and operates in a range [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3820 - 3890] [32]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol comprehensive profit was - 215.5 yuan/ton, at the 16.0% quantile level in the past six months, and the East China basis strengthened [35]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. On the supply side, the comprehensive profit has weakened, and the operating load of domestic methanol devices has declined from a high level. Overseas devices have generally reduced their loads. The expected arrival volume in January is about 850,000 tons, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. On the demand side, it has weakened slightly. The cost support is weakly stable. The supply - demand of methanol is slightly loose, and there is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The expected arrival volume in January is 850,000 tons, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The demand side is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2230 - 2280] [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,801 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was - 31 yuan/ton. The UR5 - 9 spread was 29 yuan/ton, and the weighted comprehensive profit was 60.20 yuan/ton [38][40]. - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the operating rate of coal - based and gas - based urea devices has increased. The warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period. The short - term demand is strong, and the winter storage is progressing steadily. The exports of urea and fertilizers are relatively good but declining month - on - month. The social inventory is still at a relatively high level. Under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor. The downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the support may weaken [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The benefit of winter storage is relatively limited, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is seasonally weak during the festival. The support from compound fertilizer demand is limited. Overseas natural gas price surges may affect the domestic market. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1770 - 1800] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the NG main contract closed at 3.529 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 10.87% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.350 (+0.810) US dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 14.659 (+1.336) US dollars/million British thermal units, and the domestic LNG market price was 3,828 (+29) yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere has led to a significant drop in temperature, boosting the demand side and driving up the gas price. The domestic LNG retail profit is 336 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the natural gas production has increased year - on - year, and the number of US natural gas rigs has decreased. On the demand side, the proportion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the actual sales of heavy - duty trucks from January to November 2025 was 26.00%. The US natural gas inventory has decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, supporting the gas price. However, the supply side is relatively sufficient, so the upward space of the gas price may be limited. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.866 - 5.496] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the BU main contract closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, up 2.69% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,080 (+10) yuan/ton, 3,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,180 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [46][47]. - **Main Logic**: The increase in buyers of Venezuelan crude oil exports and the decrease in discounts for domestic sales support the asphalt price. The asphalt comprehensive profit is 62 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1.023 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% month - on - month and 9.1% year - on - year. In 2025, the asphalt import and export volumes increased year - on - year. The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises has increased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still about 200 yuan/ton of compression space. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the range of BU [3150 - 3250] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price was 1,039 yuan/ton, down 1.6%. The FG05 basis was - 28 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [51][52]. - **Main Logic**: The enterprise inventory has increased from a decline. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, and there is no upward driving force. Before the cold repair is further realized, it should be treated bearishly. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with the daily melting volume remaining at 150,700 tons. The weak demand suppresses the upward space [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1030 - 1080] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 1.9%. The SA05 basis was - 28 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream production enterprises maintain a high operating rate, and the in - factory inventory is slowly decreasing from a high level. The daily melting volume of float glass has been declining continuously, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The second - phase 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and the short - term device restart has increased, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 84%. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased. The demand support is insufficient. Before the overhaul is further intensified, it should be treated bearishly [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Bearish rebound [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PX/PTA**: Range - bound [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously avoid shorting [2][3] - **Urea**: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Bearish continuation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Extreme cold weather drives up gas prices, leading to an oil price rebound. However, there is a supply - surplus situation in the off - season, and geopolitical uncertainties remain [1][8][9]. - **LPG**: Follows the cost - end oil price. In the medium - to - long - term, the oil price is under pressure, and the LPG price has room for compression [1][14][15]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but the spot price has not stopped falling. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short term [1][19]. - **PP**: Follows the cost to rebound in the short term. The fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and the short - term supply pressure eases [1][23]. - **PVC**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [1][26]. - **PX/PTA**: Valuation is not low, with supply and demand in a tight balance. It is expected to perform well, but there are risks of negative feedback from the demand side and excessive oil price drops before the Spring Festival [2][28]. - **MEG**: Valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. The supply increases, and the demand weakens seasonally. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2][31][32]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the rebound height may be limited [2][35][37]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the supply load is rising. The demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season [3][39][41]. - **Natural Gas**: Cold air drives up gas prices, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [6][45][46]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. However, there are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials and the compression space for spreads [6][49][50]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand are both weak. In the absence of further cold - repair implementation, it should be treated bearishly [6][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, and the demand support is insufficient. It should be treated bearishly before further intensification of maintenance [6][58]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose by 0.43%, Brent fell by 0.60%, and the domestic SC rose by 0.59% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up gas prices, pushing up oil prices. The Middle - East geopolitical situation eases but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On January 21, the PG main contract closed at 4064 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month [13]. - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is resilient [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price has compression space. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract's related data shows certain price and volume changes [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the linear production schedule increases, but the spot price has not stopped falling. The terminal replenishment is insufficient, and it is expected to follow the cost fluctuation [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6600 - 6800] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [21]. - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds with the cost in the short term. The supply and demand are both weak, and the PDH profit is compressed, increasing the maintenance expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6450 - 6600] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The liquid caustic soda price drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [4650 - 4850] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply is affected by device maintenance, the downstream demand weakens seasonally, and the cost end is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, with the TA05 monitored in the range of [5130 - 5220] [29]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is low, the domestic supply load increases, the demand weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulates [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds, with the EG05 monitored in the range of [3680 - 3760] [32]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent market - review section. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the domestic and overseas device loads decline, the supply pressure eases, and the demand weakens slightly [35][36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure eases in January, and the demand is suppressed by weak olefin demand. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2200 - 2250] [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply load rises, the demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still relatively high [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter - storage benefit is limited, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1760 - 1790] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 20, the NG main contract closed at 3.183 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 17.80% month - on - month [44]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up demand and gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory situation is known [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space may be limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [4.866 - 5.496] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 21, the BU main contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 0.57% month - on - month [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The raw material end provides support, the cost profit declines, the supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory increases [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spread valuation returns to normal but still has compression space. There are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand are both weak, the demand is in the off - season, and the weak demand suppresses the upward space [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [56]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from float glass is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation. After multiple rounds of negative factors are realized, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. Consider the pre - Spring Festival stocking and the fact that the negative impact of Brazilian soybean listing is basically realized. Be cautious about short - selling operations. Pay attention to the weather in South America [1][2][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation. With the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure will be greatly relieved. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude with a bullish view [1][6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound. The recent export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the growth rate has declined. Indonesia's decision not to implement the B50 policy in 2026 has dampened the bullish sentiment. Be cautious about chasing long positions and pay attention to the de - stocking situation of Malaysian palm oil in January [1][9][10]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term weak. The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, and the pre - festival stocking has led to good spot transactions. If the data from the palm oil side continues to improve, short - term long opportunities at low prices can be considered [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term oscillation. Although the tariff reduction is not directly targeted at rapeseed oil, the reduction of rapeseed import tariffs will ease the long - term supply. The current high basis limits the downward space, so it may be in a weak oscillation [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillation adjustment. The January USDA data is bullish for the ICE market. The US cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term. In China, the new cotton processing is basically completed, the sales progress has slowed down, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term is expected to be weak, but there may be a recovery in the medium and long term [1][12][14]. - **Red Dates**: Short - term rebound. With the arrival of the peak season of new product listing and consumption, the high - inventory de - stocking is accelerating, which may drive a short - term rebound. However, in the general context of loose supply and demand, it is mainly a bearish rebound [1][15][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Be vigilant about callbacks. As the end of January approaches, the pressure of increased slaughter before the Spring Festival is increasing. The demand is also changing. Both near - term and far - term contracts are under pressure [1][17][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 7.721 billion tons, a decrease of 307,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.8733 billion tons, a decrease of 257,900 tons from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 947,200 tons, a decrease of 96,800 tons from last week [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal was 2,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan or 0.40% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3187.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86 yuan or 0.09% [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of January 16, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 60,000 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 0 tons, all remaining unchanged from last week [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2,228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2440 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.47 yuan or 0.39% [5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 746,100 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons or 1.37% from last week [10]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil was 8,832 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 yuan or 0.96% from the previous day; the national average price was 8880 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.91% [8]. 3.4 Cotton - **Inventory**: The national commercial cotton inventory rose to 5.69 million tons, about 380,000 tons higher than the same period last year [13]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 was 14,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,819 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan or 0.23% [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates was 14,415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from last week, but 3,737 tons higher than the same period last year [16]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 was 8,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.46% from the previous day; the spot prices of various regions were basically unchanged [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Inventory and Slaughter**: The national sample enterprise's live - pig inventory was 3.84775 million tons, a decrease of 8,570 tons from last month; the slaughter volume was 1.23309 million heads, an increase of 45,090 heads or 3.80% [17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract Ih2603 was 11,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.69% from the previous day; the national average slaughter price was 12,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan or 1.74% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Demand rebounds month-on-month, production and inventory are generally flat. Profits are okay, but production increase is unlikely due to the off-season. Iron production drops slightly, and high raw material prices dampen restocking enthusiasm. Steel supply-demand contradictions are limited, with weak macro drivers. It will generally move in a range, and may be boosted in the short term by stricter safety production expectations after a steel mill accident [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory decreases slightly but remains high, and the destocking speed is slow. Spot prices are weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market. It will move in a range in the medium term and may be boosted in the short term by stricter safety production expectations [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: This period sees a decline in both arrivals and shipments of foreign mines. After the price drop, some steel enterprises show purchasing interest, driving the price up temporarily [1][6][7] - **Coke**: The first round of price hikes is blocked. Some coke enterprises halt shipments to customers who haven't reached an agreement. Rising raw coal prices deepen losses, but short-term production enthusiasm is okay. Supply decreases slightly month-on-month. Iron production drops slightly, and downstream restocking improves slightly. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline and should be viewed within a range [1][8][9] - **Coking Coal**: Previously shut-down mines are resuming production, increasing supply significantly. Port clearance has returned to the same period's high. Spot transactions have improved, and downstream restocking is active, with good destocking of mine inventories. The fundamentals remain unchanged. Short-term attention should be paid to whether safety inspections will affect coal mines [1][11][12] - **Ferromanganese**: Regional supply decreases month-on-month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory starts to decline but remains high. New steel tenders are ongoing, with most tender prices between 5,870 - 5,940 yuan/ton. A leading steel mill's final price is 5,920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month-on-month. It is expected to move in a range in the short term [1][14][15] - **Ferrosilicon**: Main production areas' supply increases month-on-month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory decreases. New steel tenders are ongoing, and a leading steel mill's final price is 5,760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month-on-month. Attention should be paid to other steel mills' actions. It is expected to move in a range in the short term [1][14][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Price and Spread Data**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices show different changes in various contracts. Spot prices of rebar in multiple regions drop by 10 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled coil spot prices in some regions remain unchanged. Basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads also have corresponding changes [2] - **Outlook**: Steel products will move in a medium-term range. Rebar and hot-rolled coil may be boosted in the short term by stricter safety production expectations [3][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Movement**: The decline in arrivals and shipments of foreign mines and subsequent restocking drive the price up [6][7] - **Investment Rating**: Cautiously Bullish [1] 3.3 Coke - **Market Data**: Futures prices of different coke contracts increase, while basis decreases. Spot prices remain unchanged. Production and inventory data show slight changes in capacity utilization, output, and inventory [8] - **Market Situation**: The first round of price hikes is blocked, and the market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [9] - **Investment Rating**: Cautiously Bullish [1] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Market Data**: Futures prices of different coking coal contracts change slightly, and basis also has some fluctuations. Spot prices remain unchanged. Production and inventory data show changes in开工率, output, and inventory [11] - **Market Situation**: Mines are resuming production, increasing supply. Attention should be paid to safety inspections [12] - **Investment Rating**: Cautiously Bullish [1] 3.5 Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Spread Data**: Futures prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon contracts show different changes. Spot prices of ferromanganese remain unchanged, and ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia rises by 30 yuan/ton. Basis, spreads, and production and inventory data also change [14] - **Market Situation**: New steel tenders are ongoing, and prices are rising. They are expected to move in a range in the short term [15][16] - **Investment Rating**: Cautiously Bullish [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Lead: Weak ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical issues such as Trump's statements and European geopolitical problems, as well as the Fed's independence, affect the prices of precious metals. Gold and silver have long - term investment value, while short - term fluctuations are affected by various events. Copper has long - term potential due to supply shortages and green demand, but is currently affected by the off - season and inventory accumulation. Zinc, aluminum, tin, and nickel are under short - term pressure due to factors like supply - demand imbalances and off - season consumption. Industrial silicon and polysilicon may have short - term rebounds. Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish due to supply - side disturbances [1][6][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Key Data**: SHFE gold rose 3.85% to 1092.3, COMEX gold rose 1.41% to 4836. SHFE silver fell 0.25% to 23131, COMEX silver fell 1.59% to 93. The gold - silver ratio increased. Gold ETF decreased by 4 tons to 1077.66 tons, and gold COMEX net long increased by 23606 to 251238. Silver ETF decreased by 56 tons to 16166 tons, and silver COMEX net long increased by 2789 to 32060 [2]. - **Market Situation**: Trump's inconsistent statements led to a short - term decline in gold after reaching a new high, and silver once tumbled nearly 5%. Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. The long - term logic for gold and silver remains bullish, with short - term support at 1040 for domestic gold and 21000 for domestic silver [2][3][4]. Copper - **Key Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was flat at 100420 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 0.27% to 12762 dollars/ton. The trading volume of SHFE copper main contract increased by 31%, and the inventory increased significantly. The social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons to 32.94 million tons [5]. - **Market Situation**: BHP slightly increased its 2026 fiscal - year copper production guidance. In December 2025, refined copper imports decreased. Copper is in short - term high - level consolidation, and the long - term supply - demand logic remains positive. However, it is currently the off - season, and inventory accumulation is obvious. It is recommended to take profits for existing long positions and wait for a full correction for new entries. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [99000, 102000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [6][7]. Zinc - **Key Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract rose 0.43% to 24300 yuan/ton, LME zinc was flat at 3175 dollars/ton. The trading volume increased by 2.12%, and the inventory increased by 6518 tons on a weekly basis [8]. - **Market Situation**: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink, and domestic new mine production is uncertain. Refined zinc production in December decreased, and downstream demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to wait for more macro - level guidance and for enterprises to actively arrange selling hedging. The range for SHFE zinc is [24000, 24500] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3150, 3200] dollars/ton [9][10]. Aluminum - **Key Data**: The closing price of LME aluminum fell 0.03% to 3117.5 dollars/ton, SHFE aluminum rose 0.86% to 24155 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.01% to 507175 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 29.24% to 185879 tons on a weekly basis [11]. - **Market Situation**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was put into production, and inventory increased. The downstream start - up rate is differentiated. Alumina production capacity is high, and the market surplus continues. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, with the main operation range of [23000 - 25000] yuan/ton [13][14]. Nickel - **Key Data**: The closing price of LME nickel rose 1.21% to 17975 dollars/ton, SHFE nickel rose 1.14% to 143170 yuan/ton. Stainless steel main contract rose 2.61% to 14720 yuan/ton. SMM pure nickel social inventory increased by 4.04% to 63510 tons, and SMM stainless steel social inventory decreased by 1.28% to 843700 tons [15]. - **Market Situation**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Indonesia significantly reduced its 2026 nickel ore production target, and some mines may face fines. Domestic pure nickel inventory increased, and the stainless steel market is in the off - season. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes, with the main operation range of [133000 - 151000] yuan/ton [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Key Data**: The main contract LC2605 rose 3.89% to 166740 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased. Spot prices of lithium - related products generally rose, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.82% to 24510 tons, while the inventory decreased by 0.24% to 109679 tons [19]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the news of canceling the export tax rebate for lithium batteries, it rose for two consecutive days, but then回调 due to the decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the exchange's position - limit measures. The upstream lithium salt plants have high production enthusiasm, and the new energy vehicle market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of [164000 - 175000] yuan/ton [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously Bullish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously Bullish [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Bearish [1][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish [1][12][13] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously Bearish [1][15][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously Bearish [1][15][16] Core Views - **Rebar**: Demand has increased month-on-month, while production and inventory remain largely unchanged. Profit margins are decent, but production growth is limited due to the off-season. Iron ore prices are high, curbing steel mills' restocking enthusiasm. Overall, it will trade in a range, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations after a steel mill accident [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, with a slight decline in inventory, but the absolute level is high and the de-stocking speed is slow. Spot prices are weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market. It will trade in a range in the medium term, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations after a steel mill accident [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Both arrivals and shipments of foreign ore have decreased this period. After the price decline, some steel enterprises are willing to purchase, driving the ore price up temporarily [1][6][7]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was blocked. After the recent rise in raw coal prices, coke enterprises' losses have deepened, but short-term production enthusiasm remains okay, with a slight decline in supply. Iron production has decreased slightly, and downstream restocking has improved slightly, with purchases mainly based on demand. Short-term focus is on the extent of steel mill production cuts, with a bearish outlook [1][8][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Previously shut-down coal mines have started to resume production, significantly increasing supply. Import volume at ports has returned to the same period's high level. Recent spot transactions have improved, and downstream restocking is active, with good destocking of mine inventories. There are no obvious changes in the fundamentals. Short-term focus is on whether safety inspections will affect coal mines, with a bearish outlook [1][11][12]. - **Silicomanganese**: Supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has started to decline but remains at a high level. New steel tenders are starting, with tender prices mostly between 5,870 - 5,940 yuan/ton, and a leading steel mill's final price at 5,920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month-on-month. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [1][14][15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the main production area has increased month-on-month, demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. New steel tenders are starting, with a leading steel mill's final price at 5,760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month-on-month. Attention should be paid to other steel mills' actions. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [1][14][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) have declined, with spot prices also falling in various regions [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Overall, it will maintain a range-bound operation, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations [5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) have declined, and spot prices have also decreased in different regions. The basis fluctuates around par [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: High inventory and low basis suppress the market. It will trade in a range in the medium term, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations [5]. Iron Ore - **Price**: No specific price data is provided, but it is mentioned that the price decline has led to some steel enterprises' purchase intentions, driving the price up temporarily [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, as the decrease in arrivals and shipments and restocking needs support the price [7]. Coke - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (1, 5, 9) have declined. Spot prices in some regions have remained stable, while others have decreased [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish, with a focus on the extent of steel mill production cuts [9][10]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (1, 5, 9) have declined. Spot prices in some regions have increased, while others have decreased [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish, with a focus on whether safety inspections will affect coal mines [12][13]. Iron Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have declined, and spot prices have also decreased in various regions. The basis has changed in different directions [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expected to trade in a range in the short term, with attention to steel tender prices [15][16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have declined, and spot prices have decreased in most regions. The basis has changed in different directions [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expected to trade in a range in the short term, with attention to steel tender prices and other steel mills' actions [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt [1][7] - **Bearish Continuation**: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [1][7] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Natural gas [7] - **Range - bound**: PX/PTA [2] - **Cautiously Bullish with Caution**: Methanol, urea [3][4] - **Cautiously Bearish with Caution**: Ethylene glycol [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors and supply surplus are in a tug - of - war, with oil prices poised for adjustment. There are uncertainties in the Middle East, and supply is in excess during the off - season [1][10]. - **LPG**: It follows the decline in oil prices as the cost end. Although there is some support from downstream demand and inventory, the downward pressure is increasing [1][15]. - **L**: Linear production scheduling has increased, and the market is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the short term due to the off - season demand and inventory accumulation [1][20]. - **PP**: With high warehouse receipts and weak cost support, the supply - demand situation is relatively balanced in the short term, but attention should be paid to PDH device dynamics [1][24]. - **PVC**: The cost support has improved, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [1][27]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand balance is tight, and the outlook is positive. Although there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, the overall situation is expected to improve [2][29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand balance is loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The domestic device load has increased, and demand is seasonally weak [2][32]. - **Methanol**: The supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the rebound height may be limited. There is a game between the weak current situation and strong expectations [3][36]. - **Urea**: There is short - term inventory reduction and cost support, but the demand is expected to weaken during the holiday season. The price has an upper and lower limit [4][40]. - **Natural Gas**: Cold air has boosted demand, but the supply is sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [7][46]. - **Asphalt**: In the off - season of demand, the raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. The cracking spread still has room for compression [7][49]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the market is expected to be weak before further supply reduction [7][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [7][58]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.72% and Brent rising 0.39%, while the domestic SC fell 0.93% [9][10] - **Basic Logic**: The Middle East geopolitical situation has eased but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus during the off - season, and the global and US inventories are increasing [10][11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is increasing production and pressing down prices. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [430 - 445] [12] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On January 20, the PG main contract closed at 4059 yuan/ton, a 1.58% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China also showed different degrees of decline [14] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the long - term. The downstream chemical demand is resilient, and the inventory has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price still has room for compression. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3100 - 3200] [16] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract price fell, and the basis weakened significantly [18] - **Basic Logic**: Linear production scheduling has increased, the parking ratio has decreased, and the production is expected to rise slightly. The demand is in the off - season, and inventory has accumulated [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the short term, and the L should be monitored in the range of [6550 - 6750] [20] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract price declined slightly [22] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, the cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand situation is relatively balanced in the short term. Attention should be paid to PDH device dynamics [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The PP should be monitored in the range of [6400 - 6600] [24] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract price rose slightly [25] - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda has fallen, and the cost support has improved. However, the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is mainly recommended to conduct positive spreads between months. The V should be monitored in the range of [4650 - 4850] [27] 3.6 PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract price fell [28] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low, the processing fee has improved, the supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, the demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 05 contract, and the TA05 should be monitored in the range of [5120 - 5250] [30] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract price remained unchanged [31] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load has increased, the overseas device maintenance is expected to be high, the demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds, and the EG05 should be monitored in the range of [3650 - 3750] [33] 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [34] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas device loads have decreased, the import pressure is expected to ease, the demand is slightly weak, and the cost support is weakly stable [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2190 - 2240] [38] 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract price rose slightly [39] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The overall production load has increased, the demand is short - term strong but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage is of limited benefit, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the overseas natural gas price increase may drive the domestic market. The UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1770 - 1800] [42] 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 19, the NG main contract remained unchanged, and the spot prices in the US and Europe showed different trends [45] - **Basic Logic**: Cold air has boosted demand, but the supply is sufficient. The production is growing steadily, and the inventory in the US has decreased [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space is limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [3.670 - 4.205] [46] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 20, the BU main contract closed at 3139 yuan/ton, a 0.10% decline [48] - **Basic Logic**: The raw material supply is uncertain, providing support for the price. The cost profit has decreased, the production has increased, the demand has entered the off - season, and the inventory has increased [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3100 - 3200] [50] 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract price fell [52] - **Basic Logic**: The demand is in the off - season, and the supply needs to be further reduced. The weak demand restricts the upward space [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It should be treated weakly before further supply reduction. The FG should be monitored in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract price declined [56] - **Basic Logic**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from the glass industry is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - side pressure is high, and the SA should be monitored in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58]