Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Bearish rebound [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PX/PTA**: Range - bound [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously avoid shorting [2][3] - **Urea**: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Bearish continuation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Extreme cold weather drives up gas prices, leading to an oil price rebound. However, there is a supply - surplus situation in the off - season, and geopolitical uncertainties remain [1][8][9]. - **LPG**: Follows the cost - end oil price. In the medium - to - long - term, the oil price is under pressure, and the LPG price has room for compression [1][14][15]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but the spot price has not stopped falling. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short term [1][19]. - **PP**: Follows the cost to rebound in the short term. The fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and the short - term supply pressure eases [1][23]. - **PVC**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [1][26]. - **PX/PTA**: Valuation is not low, with supply and demand in a tight balance. It is expected to perform well, but there are risks of negative feedback from the demand side and excessive oil price drops before the Spring Festival [2][28]. - **MEG**: Valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. The supply increases, and the demand weakens seasonally. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2][31][32]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the rebound height may be limited [2][35][37]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the supply load is rising. The demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season [3][39][41]. - **Natural Gas**: Cold air drives up gas prices, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [6][45][46]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. However, there are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials and the compression space for spreads [6][49][50]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand are both weak. In the absence of further cold - repair implementation, it should be treated bearishly [6][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, and the demand support is insufficient. It should be treated bearishly before further intensification of maintenance [6][58]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose by 0.43%, Brent fell by 0.60%, and the domestic SC rose by 0.59% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up gas prices, pushing up oil prices. The Middle - East geopolitical situation eases but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On January 21, the PG main contract closed at 4064 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month [13]. - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is resilient [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price has compression space. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract's related data shows certain price and volume changes [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the linear production schedule increases, but the spot price has not stopped falling. The terminal replenishment is insufficient, and it is expected to follow the cost fluctuation [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6600 - 6800] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [21]. - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds with the cost in the short term. The supply and demand are both weak, and the PDH profit is compressed, increasing the maintenance expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6450 - 6600] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The liquid caustic soda price drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [4650 - 4850] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply is affected by device maintenance, the downstream demand weakens seasonally, and the cost end is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, with the TA05 monitored in the range of [5130 - 5220] [29]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is low, the domestic supply load increases, the demand weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulates [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds, with the EG05 monitored in the range of [3680 - 3760] [32]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent market - review section. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the domestic and overseas device loads decline, the supply pressure eases, and the demand weakens slightly [35][36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure eases in January, and the demand is suppressed by weak olefin demand. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2200 - 2250] [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply load rises, the demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still relatively high [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter - storage benefit is limited, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1760 - 1790] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 20, the NG main contract closed at 3.183 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 17.80% month - on - month [44]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up demand and gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory situation is known [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space may be limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [4.866 - 5.496] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 21, the BU main contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 0.57% month - on - month [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The raw material end provides support, the cost profit declines, the supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory increases [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spread valuation returns to normal but still has compression space. There are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand are both weak, the demand is in the off - season, and the weak demand suppresses the upward space [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [56]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from float glass is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation. After multiple rounds of negative factors are realized, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. Consider the pre - Spring Festival stocking and the fact that the negative impact of Brazilian soybean listing is basically realized. Be cautious about short - selling operations. Pay attention to the weather in South America [1][2][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation. With the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure will be greatly relieved. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude with a bullish view [1][6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound. The recent export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the growth rate has declined. Indonesia's decision not to implement the B50 policy in 2026 has dampened the bullish sentiment. Be cautious about chasing long positions and pay attention to the de - stocking situation of Malaysian palm oil in January [1][9][10]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term weak. The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, and the pre - festival stocking has led to good spot transactions. If the data from the palm oil side continues to improve, short - term long opportunities at low prices can be considered [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term oscillation. Although the tariff reduction is not directly targeted at rapeseed oil, the reduction of rapeseed import tariffs will ease the long - term supply. The current high basis limits the downward space, so it may be in a weak oscillation [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillation adjustment. The January USDA data is bullish for the ICE market. The US cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term. In China, the new cotton processing is basically completed, the sales progress has slowed down, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term is expected to be weak, but there may be a recovery in the medium and long term [1][12][14]. - **Red Dates**: Short - term rebound. With the arrival of the peak season of new product listing and consumption, the high - inventory de - stocking is accelerating, which may drive a short - term rebound. However, in the general context of loose supply and demand, it is mainly a bearish rebound [1][15][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Be vigilant about callbacks. As the end of January approaches, the pressure of increased slaughter before the Spring Festival is increasing. The demand is also changing. Both near - term and far - term contracts are under pressure [1][17][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 7.721 billion tons, a decrease of 307,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.8733 billion tons, a decrease of 257,900 tons from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 947,200 tons, a decrease of 96,800 tons from last week [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal was 2,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan or 0.40% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3187.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86 yuan or 0.09% [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of January 16, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 60,000 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 0 tons, all remaining unchanged from last week [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2,228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2440 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.47 yuan or 0.39% [5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 746,100 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons or 1.37% from last week [10]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil was 8,832 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 yuan or 0.96% from the previous day; the national average price was 8880 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.91% [8]. 3.4 Cotton - **Inventory**: The national commercial cotton inventory rose to 5.69 million tons, about 380,000 tons higher than the same period last year [13]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 was 14,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,819 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan or 0.23% [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates was 14,415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from last week, but 3,737 tons higher than the same period last year [16]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 was 8,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.46% from the previous day; the spot prices of various regions were basically unchanged [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Inventory and Slaughter**: The national sample enterprise's live - pig inventory was 3.84775 million tons, a decrease of 8,570 tons from last month; the slaughter volume was 1.23309 million heads, an increase of 45,090 heads or 3.80% [17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract Ih2603 was 11,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.69% from the previous day; the national average slaughter price was 12,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan or 1.74% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Demand rebounds month-on-month, production and inventory are generally flat. Profits are okay, but production increase is unlikely due to the off-season. Iron production drops slightly, and high raw material prices dampen restocking enthusiasm. Steel supply-demand contradictions are limited, with weak macro drivers. It will generally move in a range, and may be boosted in the short term by stricter safety production expectations after a steel mill accident [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory decreases slightly but remains high, and the destocking speed is slow. Spot prices are weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market. It will move in a range in the medium term and may be boosted in the short term by stricter safety production expectations [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: This period sees a decline in both arrivals and shipments of foreign mines. After the price drop, some steel enterprises show purchasing interest, driving the price up temporarily [1][6][7] - **Coke**: The first round of price hikes is blocked. Some coke enterprises halt shipments to customers who haven't reached an agreement. Rising raw coal prices deepen losses, but short-term production enthusiasm is okay. Supply decreases slightly month-on-month. Iron production drops slightly, and downstream restocking improves slightly. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline and should be viewed within a range [1][8][9] - **Coking Coal**: Previously shut-down mines are resuming production, increasing supply significantly. Port clearance has returned to the same period's high. Spot transactions have improved, and downstream restocking is active, with good destocking of mine inventories. The fundamentals remain unchanged. Short-term attention should be paid to whether safety inspections will affect coal mines [1][11][12] - **Ferromanganese**: Regional supply decreases month-on-month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory starts to decline but remains high. New steel tenders are ongoing, with most tender prices between 5,870 - 5,940 yuan/ton. A leading steel mill's final price is 5,920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month-on-month. It is expected to move in a range in the short term [1][14][15] - **Ferrosilicon**: Main production areas' supply increases month-on-month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory decreases. New steel tenders are ongoing, and a leading steel mill's final price is 5,760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month-on-month. Attention should be paid to other steel mills' actions. It is expected to move in a range in the short term [1][14][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Price and Spread Data**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices show different changes in various contracts. Spot prices of rebar in multiple regions drop by 10 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled coil spot prices in some regions remain unchanged. Basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads also have corresponding changes [2] - **Outlook**: Steel products will move in a medium-term range. Rebar and hot-rolled coil may be boosted in the short term by stricter safety production expectations [3][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Movement**: The decline in arrivals and shipments of foreign mines and subsequent restocking drive the price up [6][7] - **Investment Rating**: Cautiously Bullish [1] 3.3 Coke - **Market Data**: Futures prices of different coke contracts increase, while basis decreases. Spot prices remain unchanged. Production and inventory data show slight changes in capacity utilization, output, and inventory [8] - **Market Situation**: The first round of price hikes is blocked, and the market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [9] - **Investment Rating**: Cautiously Bullish [1] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Market Data**: Futures prices of different coking coal contracts change slightly, and basis also has some fluctuations. Spot prices remain unchanged. Production and inventory data show changes in开工率, output, and inventory [11] - **Market Situation**: Mines are resuming production, increasing supply. Attention should be paid to safety inspections [12] - **Investment Rating**: Cautiously Bullish [1] 3.5 Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Spread Data**: Futures prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon contracts show different changes. Spot prices of ferromanganese remain unchanged, and ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia rises by 30 yuan/ton. Basis, spreads, and production and inventory data also change [14] - **Market Situation**: New steel tenders are ongoing, and prices are rising. They are expected to move in a range in the short term [15][16] - **Investment Rating**: Cautiously Bullish [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Lead: Weak ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical issues such as Trump's statements and European geopolitical problems, as well as the Fed's independence, affect the prices of precious metals. Gold and silver have long - term investment value, while short - term fluctuations are affected by various events. Copper has long - term potential due to supply shortages and green demand, but is currently affected by the off - season and inventory accumulation. Zinc, aluminum, tin, and nickel are under short - term pressure due to factors like supply - demand imbalances and off - season consumption. Industrial silicon and polysilicon may have short - term rebounds. Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish due to supply - side disturbances [1][6][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Key Data**: SHFE gold rose 3.85% to 1092.3, COMEX gold rose 1.41% to 4836. SHFE silver fell 0.25% to 23131, COMEX silver fell 1.59% to 93. The gold - silver ratio increased. Gold ETF decreased by 4 tons to 1077.66 tons, and gold COMEX net long increased by 23606 to 251238. Silver ETF decreased by 56 tons to 16166 tons, and silver COMEX net long increased by 2789 to 32060 [2]. - **Market Situation**: Trump's inconsistent statements led to a short - term decline in gold after reaching a new high, and silver once tumbled nearly 5%. Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. The long - term logic for gold and silver remains bullish, with short - term support at 1040 for domestic gold and 21000 for domestic silver [2][3][4]. Copper - **Key Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was flat at 100420 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 0.27% to 12762 dollars/ton. The trading volume of SHFE copper main contract increased by 31%, and the inventory increased significantly. The social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons to 32.94 million tons [5]. - **Market Situation**: BHP slightly increased its 2026 fiscal - year copper production guidance. In December 2025, refined copper imports decreased. Copper is in short - term high - level consolidation, and the long - term supply - demand logic remains positive. However, it is currently the off - season, and inventory accumulation is obvious. It is recommended to take profits for existing long positions and wait for a full correction for new entries. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [99000, 102000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [6][7]. Zinc - **Key Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract rose 0.43% to 24300 yuan/ton, LME zinc was flat at 3175 dollars/ton. The trading volume increased by 2.12%, and the inventory increased by 6518 tons on a weekly basis [8]. - **Market Situation**: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink, and domestic new mine production is uncertain. Refined zinc production in December decreased, and downstream demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to wait for more macro - level guidance and for enterprises to actively arrange selling hedging. The range for SHFE zinc is [24000, 24500] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3150, 3200] dollars/ton [9][10]. Aluminum - **Key Data**: The closing price of LME aluminum fell 0.03% to 3117.5 dollars/ton, SHFE aluminum rose 0.86% to 24155 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.01% to 507175 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 29.24% to 185879 tons on a weekly basis [11]. - **Market Situation**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was put into production, and inventory increased. The downstream start - up rate is differentiated. Alumina production capacity is high, and the market surplus continues. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, with the main operation range of [23000 - 25000] yuan/ton [13][14]. Nickel - **Key Data**: The closing price of LME nickel rose 1.21% to 17975 dollars/ton, SHFE nickel rose 1.14% to 143170 yuan/ton. Stainless steel main contract rose 2.61% to 14720 yuan/ton. SMM pure nickel social inventory increased by 4.04% to 63510 tons, and SMM stainless steel social inventory decreased by 1.28% to 843700 tons [15]. - **Market Situation**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Indonesia significantly reduced its 2026 nickel ore production target, and some mines may face fines. Domestic pure nickel inventory increased, and the stainless steel market is in the off - season. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes, with the main operation range of [133000 - 151000] yuan/ton [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Key Data**: The main contract LC2605 rose 3.89% to 166740 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased. Spot prices of lithium - related products generally rose, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.82% to 24510 tons, while the inventory decreased by 0.24% to 109679 tons [19]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the news of canceling the export tax rebate for lithium batteries, it rose for two consecutive days, but then回调 due to the decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the exchange's position - limit measures. The upstream lithium salt plants have high production enthusiasm, and the new energy vehicle market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of [164000 - 175000] yuan/ton [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously Bullish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously Bullish [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Bearish [1][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish [1][12][13] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously Bearish [1][15][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously Bearish [1][15][16] Core Views - **Rebar**: Demand has increased month-on-month, while production and inventory remain largely unchanged. Profit margins are decent, but production growth is limited due to the off-season. Iron ore prices are high, curbing steel mills' restocking enthusiasm. Overall, it will trade in a range, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations after a steel mill accident [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, with a slight decline in inventory, but the absolute level is high and the de-stocking speed is slow. Spot prices are weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market. It will trade in a range in the medium term, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations after a steel mill accident [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Both arrivals and shipments of foreign ore have decreased this period. After the price decline, some steel enterprises are willing to purchase, driving the ore price up temporarily [1][6][7]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was blocked. After the recent rise in raw coal prices, coke enterprises' losses have deepened, but short-term production enthusiasm remains okay, with a slight decline in supply. Iron production has decreased slightly, and downstream restocking has improved slightly, with purchases mainly based on demand. Short-term focus is on the extent of steel mill production cuts, with a bearish outlook [1][8][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Previously shut-down coal mines have started to resume production, significantly increasing supply. Import volume at ports has returned to the same period's high level. Recent spot transactions have improved, and downstream restocking is active, with good destocking of mine inventories. There are no obvious changes in the fundamentals. Short-term focus is on whether safety inspections will affect coal mines, with a bearish outlook [1][11][12]. - **Silicomanganese**: Supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has started to decline but remains at a high level. New steel tenders are starting, with tender prices mostly between 5,870 - 5,940 yuan/ton, and a leading steel mill's final price at 5,920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month-on-month. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [1][14][15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the main production area has increased month-on-month, demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. New steel tenders are starting, with a leading steel mill's final price at 5,760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month-on-month. Attention should be paid to other steel mills' actions. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [1][14][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) have declined, with spot prices also falling in various regions [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Overall, it will maintain a range-bound operation, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations [5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) have declined, and spot prices have also decreased in different regions. The basis fluctuates around par [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: High inventory and low basis suppress the market. It will trade in a range in the medium term, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations [5]. Iron Ore - **Price**: No specific price data is provided, but it is mentioned that the price decline has led to some steel enterprises' purchase intentions, driving the price up temporarily [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, as the decrease in arrivals and shipments and restocking needs support the price [7]. Coke - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (1, 5, 9) have declined. Spot prices in some regions have remained stable, while others have decreased [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish, with a focus on the extent of steel mill production cuts [9][10]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (1, 5, 9) have declined. Spot prices in some regions have increased, while others have decreased [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish, with a focus on whether safety inspections will affect coal mines [12][13]. Iron Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have declined, and spot prices have also decreased in various regions. The basis has changed in different directions [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expected to trade in a range in the short term, with attention to steel tender prices [15][16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have declined, and spot prices have decreased in most regions. The basis has changed in different directions [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expected to trade in a range in the short term, with attention to steel tender prices and other steel mills' actions [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt [1][7] - **Bearish Continuation**: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [1][7] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Natural gas [7] - **Range - bound**: PX/PTA [2] - **Cautiously Bullish with Caution**: Methanol, urea [3][4] - **Cautiously Bearish with Caution**: Ethylene glycol [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors and supply surplus are in a tug - of - war, with oil prices poised for adjustment. There are uncertainties in the Middle East, and supply is in excess during the off - season [1][10]. - **LPG**: It follows the decline in oil prices as the cost end. Although there is some support from downstream demand and inventory, the downward pressure is increasing [1][15]. - **L**: Linear production scheduling has increased, and the market is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the short term due to the off - season demand and inventory accumulation [1][20]. - **PP**: With high warehouse receipts and weak cost support, the supply - demand situation is relatively balanced in the short term, but attention should be paid to PDH device dynamics [1][24]. - **PVC**: The cost support has improved, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [1][27]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand balance is tight, and the outlook is positive. Although there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, the overall situation is expected to improve [2][29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand balance is loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The domestic device load has increased, and demand is seasonally weak [2][32]. - **Methanol**: The supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the rebound height may be limited. There is a game between the weak current situation and strong expectations [3][36]. - **Urea**: There is short - term inventory reduction and cost support, but the demand is expected to weaken during the holiday season. The price has an upper and lower limit [4][40]. - **Natural Gas**: Cold air has boosted demand, but the supply is sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [7][46]. - **Asphalt**: In the off - season of demand, the raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. The cracking spread still has room for compression [7][49]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the market is expected to be weak before further supply reduction [7][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [7][58]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.72% and Brent rising 0.39%, while the domestic SC fell 0.93% [9][10] - **Basic Logic**: The Middle East geopolitical situation has eased but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus during the off - season, and the global and US inventories are increasing [10][11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is increasing production and pressing down prices. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [430 - 445] [12] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On January 20, the PG main contract closed at 4059 yuan/ton, a 1.58% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China also showed different degrees of decline [14] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the long - term. The downstream chemical demand is resilient, and the inventory has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price still has room for compression. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3100 - 3200] [16] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract price fell, and the basis weakened significantly [18] - **Basic Logic**: Linear production scheduling has increased, the parking ratio has decreased, and the production is expected to rise slightly. The demand is in the off - season, and inventory has accumulated [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the short term, and the L should be monitored in the range of [6550 - 6750] [20] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract price declined slightly [22] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, the cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand situation is relatively balanced in the short term. Attention should be paid to PDH device dynamics [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The PP should be monitored in the range of [6400 - 6600] [24] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract price rose slightly [25] - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda has fallen, and the cost support has improved. However, the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is mainly recommended to conduct positive spreads between months. The V should be monitored in the range of [4650 - 4850] [27] 3.6 PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract price fell [28] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low, the processing fee has improved, the supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, the demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 05 contract, and the TA05 should be monitored in the range of [5120 - 5250] [30] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract price remained unchanged [31] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load has increased, the overseas device maintenance is expected to be high, the demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds, and the EG05 should be monitored in the range of [3650 - 3750] [33] 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [34] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas device loads have decreased, the import pressure is expected to ease, the demand is slightly weak, and the cost support is weakly stable [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2190 - 2240] [38] 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract price rose slightly [39] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The overall production load has increased, the demand is short - term strong but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage is of limited benefit, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the overseas natural gas price increase may drive the domestic market. The UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1770 - 1800] [42] 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 19, the NG main contract remained unchanged, and the spot prices in the US and Europe showed different trends [45] - **Basic Logic**: Cold air has boosted demand, but the supply is sufficient. The production is growing steadily, and the inventory in the US has decreased [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space is limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [3.670 - 4.205] [46] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 20, the BU main contract closed at 3139 yuan/ton, a 0.10% decline [48] - **Basic Logic**: The raw material supply is uncertain, providing support for the price. The cost profit has decreased, the production has increased, the demand has entered the off - season, and the inventory has increased [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3100 - 3200] [50] 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract price fell [52] - **Basic Logic**: The demand is in the off - season, and the supply needs to be further reduced. The weak demand restricts the upward space [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It should be treated weakly before further supply reduction. The FG should be monitored in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract price declined [56] - **Basic Logic**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from the glass industry is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - side pressure is high, and the SA should be monitored in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入去 | | 豆粕 | | 库阶段。进口空缺窗口期下，现货市场挺价意愿较强。叠加国际美豆出口及压榨数 | | | 短线止跌整理 | 据良好，阿根廷降雨未来十五天大幅低于正常水平，天气因素仍存干扰。内外因素 | | ★ | | 影响下，豆粕短线调整空间受限，继续做空谨慎对待，也可以关注企稳后的短多机 | | | | 会，关注后市南美天气情况。 | | | | 1 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。菜粕现货库存压 | | 菜粕 | | 力缓解，供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。虽然 1 月美农报告环比调减全球菜 | | ★ | 短线止跌整理 | 籽产量及期末库存，中加贸易关系缓解，加籽进口综合关税降至 15%,长期将大幅化 | | | | 解国内进口供应。菜粕看多观望。 | | | | 国内现货成交清淡。最新印尼公布 2026 年暂不执行 B50 政策，打压市场看多情绪， | | 棕榈油 | 短期反弹 | 好在本月前 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 特朗普政府与欧洲地缘问题持续，欧洲各国或抛售美债反制，美国最高院开审库克 | | | 长线持有 | 案，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可，短期强势。中长期，地缘秩序重塑， | | ★★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，短期白银未被征收关税叠加交易所调保 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 或会带来调整，但全年来看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口 | | ★★ | | | | | 连续 | 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 欧洲抛美债、日债押注黄金，金融市场或酝酿风暴，消费淡季铜累库明显，隔夜铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 承压回落，失守 10 万关口，建议多单移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中长期 | | ★ | | 对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观多空交织，消费淡季高锌价对需求抑制作用明显，叠加宏观和板块情绪退潮， | | 锌 | 承压回落 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously chase long [2][3] - Urea: Cautiously chase long [3] - Natural gas: Bearish rebound [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and South America have an impact on the prices of energy - related products. Supply - demand imbalances exist in many varieties, with some facing over - supply pressure during the off - season, while others have weak demand. Cost factors, especially the price of crude oil, play a crucial role in the price trends of many products [1][7][11] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Summary**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, but there is still uncertainty. The market is in an off - season with supply surplus, and inventories are rising. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term, with short - term rebounds possible [1][11][12] - **Price Information**: WTI主力 at $59.34, Brent主力 at $64.13, and SC主力 at 442.6 yuan/barrel [9] - **Supply**: Iraq's daily oil export in January 2026 is expected to be 3.6 million barrels [12] - **Demand**: The share of Middle East crude supply in India's December 2025 crude imports rose to nearly 54% [12] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 9, US crude inventory increased by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels [12] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, OPEC+ expansion may push the price into a low - price range. Short - term, watch for rebounds, and for SC, focus on the range of [430 - 445] [13] LPG - **Summary**: It follows the downward trend of the cost - end crude oil price. The supply and demand are relatively stable, with downstream chemical demand showing resilience. The inventory shows positive signals [1][17] - **Price Information**: On January 19, the PG主力 contract closed at 4124 yuan/ton, down 0.48% [16] - **Supply**: As of the week of January 16, the LPG commodity volume was 518,700 tons, up 600 tons [17] - **Demand**: As of the week of January 16, the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates were 73.07% (- 2.54pct), 67.57% (+0.00pct), and 37.99% (+0.32pct) respectively [17] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 16, the refinery inventory was 156,700 tons, down 1,900 tons, and the port inventory was 2.0278 million tons, down 104,200 tons [17] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price may continue to decline. Focus on the range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Summary**: The basis weakens, and it follows the cost - end to move weakly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [22] - **Price Information**: L05 closed at 6667 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 yuan/ton [20][22] - **Supply**: The parking ratio is 14%, and the planned device restart this week may lead to a slight increase in production [22] - **Demand**: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [22] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6600 - 6750] [22] PP - **Summary**: The warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the supply is slightly increasing. It follows the cost to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply - demand is weak on both sides [26] - **Price Information**: PP05 closed at 6482 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [24][26] - **Supply**: The parking ratio is 19%, and the PDH profit is low, increasing the expectation of maintenance [26] - **Demand**: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [26] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [26] PVC - **Summary**: The price of calcium carbide has increased, and the price of liquid caustic soda has decreased, with improved cost support. However, there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the long - term, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [30] - **Price Information**: V05 closed at 4801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 241 yuan/ton [28][30] - **Supply**: The domestic operating rate has increased to 80% [30] - **Demand**: In the seasonal off - season, both domestic and foreign demand are weak [30] - **Inventory**: Social inventory has reached a new high [30] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PX/PTA - **Summary**: It is in a range - bound state. The processing fee has been repaired, but the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the cost - end PX is in a weak balance [32] - **Price Information**: TA05 closed at 5018 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 58 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Supply**: Multiple domestic devices are under maintenance, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [32] - **Demand**: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [32] - **Inventory**: There is a slight accumulation of inventory in January - February, but the pressure is not large [32] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for 05 contract, and focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Summary**: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic supply load has increased, while the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January - February [35] - **Price Information**: EG05 closed at 3614 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 101 yuan/ton [34][35] - **Supply**: Multiple domestic devices have changed their operating status, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [35] - **Demand**: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [35] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [35] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds, and focus on the range of [3700 - 3770] [36] Methanol - **Summary**: The valuation is not low, and the comprehensive profit is weak. The domestic and overseas device operating rates have decreased, and the demand is slightly weak. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and there is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [39][40] - **Price Information**: The valuation of methanol is at the 16.0% quantile level in the past six months, and the East China basis is strengthening [39] - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas devices have reduced their operating rates, and the import volume in January is expected to be about 850,000 tons [39][40] - **Demand**: The demand from the olefin industry and traditional downstream industries is weak [39][40] - **Inventory**: The (port) inventory has been significantly reduced [40] - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the range of [2180 - 2240] [41] Urea - **Summary**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the supply is increasing with the resumption of production of previous maintenance devices. The short - term demand is relatively strong, but it will enter the off - season during the festival. The price has a ceiling and a floor under the policies of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" [43][44] - **Price Information**: The main contract of urea closed at 1801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [42][44] - **Supply**: The operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea devices are rising, and the daily output is at a high level [44] - **Demand**: The winter storage is progressing steadily, and the demand from compound fertilizers and melamine industries is strong, but the export is weakening month - on - month [43][44] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is still at a relatively high level [43] - **Strategy**: The winter storage has limited positive effects, and the supply pressure is increasing. Pay attention to the range of [1760 - 1790] [45] Natural Gas - **Summary**: Affected by cold air, the demand has been boosted in the short - term, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure in the long - term [49] - **Price Information**: On January 19, the NG主力 contract closed at $2.702 per million British thermal units, up 0.75% [48] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the natural gas production of industrial enterprises above designated size increased steadily. The number of natural gas rigs in the US decreased [49] - **Demand**: The proportion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the terminal sales of heavy - duty trucks was 26.00% from January to November 2025 [49] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 9, the US natural gas inventory decreased by 71 billion cubic feet [49] - **Strategy**: In the winter, the demand for heating provides support, but the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the range of [3.361 - 3.991] [49] Asphalt - **Summary**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, and the price has followed the decline of crude oil. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the cracking spread is gradually returning to normal but still has room for compression [54] - **Price Information**: The BU主力 contract closed at 3142 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [52] - **Supply**: The production in December 2025 increased slightly, and the operating rate has changed [53] - **Demand**: The demand has entered the off - season, and the shipment volume has decreased [53] - **Inventory**: The inventory of 70 sample enterprises has increased [53] - **Strategy**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. Pay attention to the range of [3100 - 3200] [54] Glass - **Summary**: The terminal real - estate demand is weak, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the price is expected to continue to decline [58] - **Price Information**: FG05 closed at 1070 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton [56][58] - **Supply**: The daily melting volume has slightly increased, but supply reduction is still needed [58] - **Demand**: The demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and the number of deep - processing orders is low [58] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [1040 - 1080] [58] Soda Ash - **Summary**: The operating rate of production enterprises has increased, and the factory inventory is gradually decreasing from a high level. The demand from the float glass industry is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [62] - **Price Information**: SA05 closed at 1192 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 42 yuan/ton [60][62] - **Supply**: The second - phase 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to 87% [62] - **Demand**: The real - estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, resulting in insufficient demand [62] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [1150 - 1200] [62]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific ratings for each variety: short - term decline for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, short - term rebound for palm oil, short - term weakness for soybean oil, short - term oscillation for rapeseed oil, oscillation adjustment for cotton, short - term rebound for red dates, and caution for callback for live pigs [1]. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: After multiple rounds of negative factors are realized, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. Although the domestic spot price is resistant to decline, recent domestic reserves release and the successful China - Canada meeting led to a new low in soybean meal prices, and short - selling after continuous decline should be cautious [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The improvement of China - Canada trade relations may lead to a long - term increase in imports. Currently, the supply is tight, but the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see with a bullish view [1][4][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of January increased month - on - month, and the production decreased month - on - month, which supports the market. Although Indonesia's decision not to implement the B50 policy in 2026 dampens the bullish sentiment, there are still opportunities to go long at low prices, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][7][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the pre - holiday stocking makes the domestic spot trading good. If the palm oil data continues to improve, there may be short - term long opportunities [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The easing of China - Canada trade relations may relieve the long - term supply pressure. Considering the current high basis, the decline space is limited, and it may oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Cotton**: The 1 - month USDA data is positive for the ICE market, and the short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong. The domestic market is facing a slowdown in sales, increased raw material inventory pressure, and weakening demand in the off - season. The short - term is expected to adjust weakly, and the medium - to - long - term may recover after the release of negative factors [1][11][13]. - **Red Dates**: With the arrival of the peak season of new product listing and consumption, the futures price fluctuation increases. The accelerated inventory reduction may drive a short - term rebound, but the overall situation is still under pressure in the context of loose supply and demand [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: As it approaches the end of January, the pressure of increased slaughter before the Spring Festival is increasing, and the market sentiment may change. The near - month contract may face increasing pressure, and the far - month contract is also under pressure due to the slow reduction of breeding sows [1][16][17]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 772100 tons, a decrease of 30700 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 687330 tons, a decrease of 25790 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.62%, and an increase of 165860 tons from last year, an increase of 31.81%; the soybean meal inventory was 94720 tons, a decrease of 9680 tons from last week, a decrease of 9.27%, and an increase of 39050 tons from last year, an increase of 70.15% [3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3195.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.03% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 60000 tons, unchanged from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, unchanged from last week [6]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2221 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 1.51%; the national average spot price was 2388.95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.79 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 3.07% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 746100 tons, an increase of 10100 tons from last week, an increase of 1.37%, and an increase of 264300 tons from last year, an increase of 54.86% [9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.30%; the national average price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.03% [7]. Cotton - **Inventory Data**: As of the relevant period, the national cotton commercial inventory was 5686300 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from the previous value; the Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory was 4706300 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous value [10]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 was 14545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.31%; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.32% [10]. Red Dates - **Inventory Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 14415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from the previous week, and 3737 tons higher than the same period [15]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 was 8815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.68%; the price of Aksu general - grade dates was 5.15 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Sales Data**: As of the relevant period, the national sample - enterprise pig inventory was 3847750, a decrease of 8570 from the previous month, a decrease of 0.22%; the pig slaughter volume was 12330900, an increase of 450900 from the previous month, an increase of 3.80%; the breeding sow inventory was 3990000, a decrease of 45000 from the previous month, a decrease of 1.12% [16]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract LH2603 was 11705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.30%; the national average slaughter price was 13300 yuan/ton, an increase of 530 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 4.15% [16].