| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 宏观情绪有所改善，但对黑色系供需影响有限。螺纹钢自身处于供需双弱 | | | | 的状态，旺盛的出口缓解了高铁水的供应压力，而原料端仍存在一定出货 | | | | 压力。现实基本面尚未出现明显改善，情绪性交易退却后，重回区间运行。 | | | | 【2940，2980】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量回升，表观需求回落，库存止降转增，数据偏弱。出口后期存在 | | | | 回落可能，同时黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现。宏观氛围转暖， | | | | 但对实际供需影响有限，后市或重回区间运行。【3050，3090】 | | 铁矿石 | 短线偏强 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双增，港口钢厂库存双降。近端铁矿供需结构中性偏弱。中 | | | | 美和谈再放利好，风险偏好回升，短期盘面偏强。单边空单减持【690,730】 | | 焦炭 | 震荡运行 | 钢厂开启第三轮提降，焦企利润进一步下降。虽然已出现部分减产 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 尽管中美元首通话，但是美国大规模国债拍卖在即继美国数据走弱，都对黄金 | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 价格有支撑。短期不确定性仍然较多，关注风险事件是否再次集中爆发。长期 | | | | 看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【770-797】 | | | | 相关数据提高美国降息预期，另外中美通话或带来关税缓和的猜想。风险偏好 | | 白银 | 强势上冲 | 上升，白银破前高，不过白银弹性大，继续上冲需要多方力量配合，背靠区间 | | | | 上沿等待做多。【8520-9000】 | | | | 中美首领通电，市场情绪积极，风险偏好回升，建议前期多单继续持有，部分逢高 | | 铜 | 部分止盈 | 止盈兑现，卖出套保把握逢高布局机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【78000， | | | | 79500】 | | 锌 | 区间震荡 | 国内宏观政策窗口期，锌供应产能高位释放，需求淡季来临和钢材拖累，锌低 | | | | 位震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线整理蓄势 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | 豆粕 | | | | | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪，但实际减产预计有限。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面偏空， | | | | 看多暂以技术性反弹对待，也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。3000 元至 3070 元区间 | | | | 未来两周阻力较大。主力【2925，2985】 | | 菜粕 ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 2951 | -19 | 热卷01 | 3075 | -15 | | 螺纹05 | 2952 | -14 | 热卷05 | 3072 | -16 | | 螺纹10 | 2959 | -15 | 热卷10 | 3077 | -20 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2880 | -20 | 张家港废钢 | 2080 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3140 | 0 | 热卷： 天津 | 3120 | -10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3100 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3180 | -20 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3100 | -20 | 热卷:杭州 | 3200 | -10 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3200 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3220 | -20 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3220 | 30 | 热卷：成都 | 3400 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线整理蓄势 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 | | | | 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | 豆粕 | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪，但实际减产预计有限。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面偏空， | | | | 看多暂以技术性反弹对待，也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。3000 元至 3070 元区间 | | | | 未来两周阻力较大。主力【2920，2985】 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 震荡 | 地缘风险、旺季预期 VSOPEC+增产，油价盘整。近期，乌克兰先后袭击 | | 原油 | | 俄罗斯空军基地和克里米亚大桥，俄乌冲突升温；OPEC+7 月继续增产 41.1 | | | | 万桶/日符合市场预期，夏季原油消费旺季即将到来，近月下方存支撑。策 | | | | 略：下有支撑，上方有限，卖看涨期权。关注区间：SC【455-475】 | | | | 下游利润改善，仓单压力下降，液化气震荡偏强。成本端油价短期受地缘 和消费旺季带动，走势震荡偏强；近期仓单连续下降，盘面压力下降；供 | | LPG | 震荡偏强 | | | | | 需双增，炼厂检修逐渐结束，供给量上升，下游 PDH 装置利润好转，开 | | | | 工有上升预期。策略：轻仓试多。关注区间：PG【4065-4130】 | | | | 焦煤带动煤化工品种集体反弹，PE 煤制占比 21%，但基差显著走弱，华 | | | | 北基差为-19（环比-86），盘面减仓反弹。国内停车比例维持在 15%以上 | | L | 高空 | 的偏高水平， ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 震荡 | 螺纹钢近期供需相对平衡，变化不大。铁水产量绝对水平仍然较高，钢材 | | | | 整体供应偏宽松。建材消费马上进入淡季，在钢厂利润持续较好背景下， | | 螺纹钢 | | 后期供需存在宽松预期。另外原料供应持续存在供应压力，成本持续下降， | | | | 拖累钢材表现，中期延续偏弱趋势，短期在持续下行后或进入震荡状态。 | | | | 【2950，2990】 | | 热卷 | 震荡 | 热卷供需目前相对平衡，库存继续去化。出口虽仍不错，但后期存在回落 | | | | 可能。黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现，随着铁水产量见顶，成 | | | | 本端面临进一步的宽松压力。短期或低位震荡，但中期下行趋势难以改变。 | | | | 【3060，3100】 | | 铁矿石 | 中性偏弱 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双增，港口钢厂库存双降。近端铁矿供需结构中性偏弱，后 | | | | 期来看，终端需求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场对突发性、非系统性风险的敏感度下降，情绪释放速度加快，未来地缘关 | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 税变得更加复杂，短期不确定性仍然较多，关注风险事件是否再次集中爆发。 | | | | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【770-797】 | | | | | | | | | | 白银基本面，目前全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，各国财政 | 白银 | 宽幅震荡 | 关税对冲关税带来的负面影响，白银跟随黄金波动，价格没有摆脱此前区间， | | | | | | | 操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8550】 | | | | | | | | | | 美国制造业数据低于预期，ADP | 就业不佳，特朗普威逼美联储降息，美元指数走弱， | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 铜围绕 | 7 | 万 | 8 | 关口震荡，前期多单继续持有，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, with strategic allocation value due to complex geopolitical and tariff situations, and central bank gold - buying expectations [1]. - Silver will follow gold's fluctuations and trade in a wide range, as global economic demand may decline and supply changes are small [1]. - Copper is recommended to be bought on dips in the short - term and is bullish in the long - term, considering strong US employment, tight global copper mines, and its strategic importance [1][5]. - Zinc is likely to have limited upside space, with a supply - increase and demand - decrease trend in the long - term, suggesting short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][8]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to the approaching off - season and supply - demand factors, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1][9]. - Nickel prices will face pressure on rebounds, with supply pressure and high inventory, and short - selling on rallies is advised [1][11]. - Lithium carbonate prices will have limited rebound space due to supply - demand imbalance and falling ore prices, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1][13]. Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Tariff changes, geopolitical uncertainties, and future interest - rate cut expectations support gold prices. The US economic growth forecast is lowered, the Russia - Ukraine situation escalates, and tariff policies are complex [2]. - **Strategy**: Long positions can be arranged in the gold market, with position control for long - term investment. Silver will follow gold, with a short - term trading range of [8200, 8550] [1][3]. Copper - **Market Situation**: Overseas copper mines are in short supply, and there are risks of soft squeeze - out of inventory. The US employment market is strong, reducing recession concerns and increasing risk appetite [4][5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, buy copper on dips with light positions. Long - term, be bullish on copper. The short - term trading range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79000], and for London copper is [9500, 9800] USD/ton [5]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc ore supply is loosening, and downstream demand is weakening, with zinc enterprises'开工 rates falling and being affected by weak steel demand [7]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, zinc has limited upside. In the long - term, short - sell on rallies. The trading range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2650, 2780] USD/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The off - season dominates the market. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, but demand is showing signs of weakening. Alumina supply is in surplus [9]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell aluminum on rallies, and pay attention to inventory changes. The trading range for Shanghai aluminum is [19800 - 20500], and alumina will trade in a low - level range [9]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: The cost support for nickel is weakening, and supply pressure is significant. Stainless steel inventory is high, and consumption is entering the off - season [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rallies, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The trading range for nickel is [118000 - 125000] [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Supply exceeds demand, ore prices are falling, and although some enterprises are reducing production, it cannot reverse the oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies, with a trading range of [59240 - 61000] [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish on dips [1] - PTA: Bullish on dips [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Showing signs of stopping decline [1] - Caustic soda: Bearish [1] - Methanol: Bearish on rallies [1] - Urea: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices are rebounding strongly. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, and the upcoming summer peak season for crude oil consumption provides support [1][4][5]. - LPG: Supply and demand are both increasing, and LPG is in a sideways adjustment. The cost - end oil price is driven by geopolitical factors and the consumption peak season, and the pressure on the futures market has decreased [1][7][8]. - L: After the holiday, petrochemical inventories have increased, and there is no upward driving force in the short - term. Although the decline space is limited, there is still a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][10]. - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][13]. - PVC: The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][16]. - PX: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals continue to improve in May. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost [1][17][18]. - PTA: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, but the demand is relatively good for now. It is short - term bullish but there is a weakening expectation in the future, so pay attention to shorting opportunities [1][20][21]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure has been relieved, and the demand is at a high level but expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and it is short - term bullish [1][22]. - Glass: The medium - term demand is shrinking, and the spot price is falling. The cost center is moving down, and the bottom - fishing is not safe [1][24][25]. - Soda ash: The supply pressure is increasing, and the rigid demand support is insufficient. The inventory is at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1][26][27]. - Caustic soda: The supply has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The futures market is weakening [1][29]. - Methanol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1]. - Urea: The supply pressure remains, but there is support from the peak fertilizer - using season in July and the Indian tender. It shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and the inventory is relatively favorable. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.42%, Brent up 1.55%, and SC up 2.74% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks have risen due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Supply from Russia and Brazil is stable, and global demand is expected to increase slightly. US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, oil prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to over - supply. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors and may fall after the risk is released. SC focuses on [465 - 485] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 3, the PG main contract closed at 4074 yuan/ton, up 0.94% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price strengthened during the Dragon Boat Festival. Supply and demand are both increasing, with refinery production rising and PDH device demand expected to increase. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to over - supply of upstream crude oil. Technically, it is sideways. The strategy is to sell call options. PG focuses on [4065 - 4130] [9]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and import margins were relatively stable [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, but there is still pressure from new device production in the medium - term. Demand is weak in June. Petrochemical inventories have increased after the holiday [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities. Be cautious about the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts rose slightly, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and production margins changed slightly [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Many maintenance devices have restarted, increasing supply. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and new capacity will intensify the supply - demand contradiction [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices were stable or slightly decreased. Cost and profit indicators changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance scale has narrowed, increasing supply. Demand is in the off - season due to the approaching rainy season. The cost has decreased [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Be aware of macro - systematic risks [16]. PX - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and processing spreads changed [17]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profit has improved, and domestic and overseas device loads have increased, increasing supply. PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, improving demand. Inventory decreased in April but is still high [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6510, 6680] [19]. PTA - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [20]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, increasing supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is short - term bullish, but pay attention to shorting opportunities due to the expected weakening of fundamentals [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, relieving supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4270, 4350] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the futures market was under pressure. The basis increased, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro - risk preference is low, and the medium - term demand for glass is shrinking. In the short - term, it is the off - season, and enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory. Supply is not expected to decrease due to profit [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [950, 980], and it is expected to approach the 5 - day moving average in the short - term [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot prices decreased, and the futures market was weak. The basis increased, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the forecast increased [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is increasing as maintenance devices restart and new capacity comes on - stream. Demand is weak due to the decline of the glass market and the end of the photovoltaic rush. Inventory is high [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rebounded at a low level. The basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has increased as many maintenance devices restarted. The profit of alumina has improved, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has decreased. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided in the given text. Methanol - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase as the overseas arrival volume is expected to be realized. Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and inventory is accumulating [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to shorting opportunities [1]. Urea - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains as maintenance devices restart. Demand is in the domestic off - season but has support from the Indian tender and the peak fertilizer - using season in July. Cost is weak but has a bottom support [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and shorting on rallies. Urea shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and inventory is relatively favorable. Demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the trend of oil prices. BU focuses on [3500 - 3560] [1].