Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - As the peak season enters the second half, with OPEC continuing to increase production, the oil price center is expected to move down further. In July, the main driver of crude oil was the peak - season market. The continuous inventory reduction of crude oil and refined oil in Europe and the United States supported the oil price to some extent. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's summer crude oil power generation consumed part of the increased production. Subsequently, the support from the demand side for oil prices will gradually decline, and the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. There is still room for oil prices to compress. The key price to focus on is $60, which is close to the break - even point of new US shale oil wells. The US crude oil production will be a major variable on the supply side. The focus ranges are WTI [60, 70] for the outer market and SC [450, 500] for the inner market [3][97]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The core driver of the crude oil market was the unexpected peak - season demand for diesel in Europe and the United States [10]. 2. Macroeconomics - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations, which was the fifth consecutive decision to keep the rate unchanged. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's 2025 growth rate by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% compared with the April WEO forecast, due to stronger - than - expected economic activity in China in the first half of 2025 and much lower Sino - US actual tariffs than expected in April [3]. - On July 29, the IMF released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, raising the 2025 global economic growth forecast by 0.2% to 3%, mainly because China's economic growth exceeded expectations and the Sino - US tariff level was lower than expected [21]. 3. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Supply - In June 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 219,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,723.5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production rose by 173,000 barrels per day to 935,600 barrels per day; Iraq's by 11,000 barrels per day to 394,300 barrels per day; and the UAE's by 83,000 barrels per day to 305,300 barrels per day. Kuwait's production increased by 12,000 barrels per day to 243,600 barrels per day, while Iran's decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 324,100 barrels per day, and Venezuela's rose by 2,000 barrels per day to 91,000 barrels per day [4][34][35]. - As of the week ending July 25, US crude oil production was 1,331 million barrels per day, up 41,000 barrels per day month - on - month, and the number of US oil rigs was 415, down 7 month - on - month [38]. - As of the week ending July 25, the US net crude oil imports increased. Demand - In July 2025, the EIA, OPEC, and IEA monthly reports estimated the 2025 global crude oil demand at 10,354 million barrels per day, 10,513 million barrels per day, and 10,374 million barrels per day respectively, with growth rates of 80,000 barrels per day, 129,000 barrels per day, and 70,000 barrels per day compared with 2024. The EIA and OPEC July 2025 reports estimated the 2026 global crude oil demand at 10,459 million barrels per day and 10,642 million barrels per day respectively, with growth rates of 105,000 barrels per day and 128,000 barrels per day compared with 2025 [4][42][44]. - As of the week ending July 25, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 17.3731 million tons, down 109,000 tons month - on - month. In June, the monthly crude oil imports were 49.89 million tons, up 7.40% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 279.82 million tons, up 1.57% year - on - year. The domestic refinery capacity utilization rate was 71.55%, the main refinery capacity utilization rate was 81.21%, and the Shandong local refinery capacity utilization rate was 48.16% [54][58]. Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.69 million barrels, up 7.7 million barrels; strategic crude oil inventory was 402.74 million barrels, up 240,000 barrels. US gasoline inventory was 228.41 million barrels, down 2.72 million barrels; and distillate fuel oil inventory was 113.54 million barrels, up 3.64 million barrels [62][64]. - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of the week ending July 25, China's port inventory was 28.266 million tons, up 187,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory was 2.496 million tons, up 13,000 tons [67]. 4. Spreads and Positions Spreads - WTI's inter - month spreads increased. As of July 30, WTI M1 - M2 was $1.07 per barrel, and M1 - M6 was $3.50 per barrel. Recently, Trump's pressure on Russia over the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices [80]. - The inter - month spreads of the domestic market also increased. - As of July 30, the US gasoline crack spread was $22.48 per barrel, the diesel crack spread was $31.24 per barrel, the 5:3:2 crude oil crack spread was $25.99 per barrel, and the 3:2:1 crack spread was $25.40 per barrel. The domestic refined oil crack spread remained stable [84]. Positions - Information on WTI and Brent positions was provided, but no specific data summary was given. - The SC warehouse receipt volume was at a low level, while the SC total position increased. 5. Summary - The peak season for crude oil is in the second half. As OPEC continues to expand production, the oil price center is expected to move down. In July, the peak - season market, continuous inventory reduction of crude oil and refined oil in Europe and the United States, and Saudi Arabia's summer power - generation consumption of part of the increased production supported the oil price. Subsequently, the demand - side support for oil prices will gradually decline, and the supply - side pressure will increase, with room for oil price compression. The key price to watch is $60, and the US crude oil production is a major supply - side variable. The recommended trading ranges are WTI [60, 70] for the outer market and SC [450, 500] for the inner market [97]. - The report also provided various trading strategies, including futures, options, and hedging strategies, with different recommended intensities [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the products in the report are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, methanol, urea, propylene. Crude oil is recommended to hold short positions, and asphalt is rated as "Bearish" [1][2]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities, indicating that many are facing supply - demand imbalances or macro - economic pressures, leading to a generally bearish outlook. For example, geopolitical risks in the oil market are releasing, and OPEC+ production increases are putting pressure on oil prices. New capacity in some chemical products is expected to increase supply, while demand is seasonally weak [1][6]. 3. Summaries Based on Commodity Categories Crude Oil - **Core View**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and oil prices have fallen. Although there are short - term geopolitical and macro - economic positives, from a supply - demand perspective, OPEC+ production increases are gradually releasing pressure, and the peak season is in the second half, with the oil price center still having room to decline. The US 5 - month crude oil production increased, and commercial and strategic oil reserves also changed [6][7]. - **Strategy**: For the 10 - contract, short positions can be established, and call options can be bought to protect the position. If short positions are already held, it is recommended to continue holding. Pay attention to the range of 520 - 530 yuan for SC [8]. LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are oscillating, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the August CP contract price. The LPG's own fundamentals are okay, but the cost end is the main drag. Supply has increased slightly, and demand from some downstream industries has decreased. Inventory has changed, with port inventory increasing and refinery inventory decreasing [11]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the range of 3950 - 4050 yuan for PG [12]. L (Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Most devices have recently restarted, increasing supply pressure. The basis and monthly spreads are at low levels compared to the same period. Social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks, and the fundamentals are weak. There are plans to put new capacity into production in August [18]. - **Strategy**: Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time, and short positions can be established on the far - month contracts. Pay attention to the range of 7200 - 7500 yuan for L [18]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment has cooled. Although there are high - level maintenance in the short - term, the production capacity pressure in the third quarter is high. New capacity is planned to be released in August, and domestic demand is at the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons, with weak downstream restocking power. Inventory has started to accumulate, and high production restricts the rebound space [25]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on the far - month contracts or a 9 - 1 monthly positive spread can be established. Pay attention to the range of 7050 - 7200 yuan for PP [25]. PVC - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: The market has returned to weak fundamentals, and the futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. New devices have reached full - load production, and there are few maintenance plans in August. It is the off - season for both domestic and foreign demand, and social inventory has been accumulating for 6 weeks, with the supply - demand pattern expected to continue to accumulate inventory in August [31]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of 5000 - 5120 yuan for V [31]. PX - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and PX inventory is declining but still relatively high. PXN is not low, and there is no macro - economic upside surprise at the end of July. The probability of a September interest rate cut has decreased, and overnight crude oil has weakened [1]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pull - backs, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of 6800 - 6920 yuan for PX [37]. PTA - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Recent device changes are relatively small, but new PTA devices are expected to be put into production, increasing supply - side pressure. Demand is seasonally weak, and the fundamentals are expected to shift from a tight balance to a looser state. The cost support has weakened [40]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions; pay attention to the possibility of expanding the PTA processing fee; sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 4720 - 4800 yuan for TA [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads. The arrival and import volumes are low compared to the same period, but the inflection point is approaching. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders are continuously declining. Although the supply - demand was in a tight balance in July, low inventory supports the price, but the macro - economic situation is not favorable [44]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 4360 - 4430 yuan for EG [45]. Glass - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Politburo meeting policies did not exceed expectations, and the manufacturing PMI declined and was below the boom - bust line, suppressing the commodity market sentiment. Production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and inventory has decreased for 6 weeks, mainly due to inventory transfer rather than terminal consumption. As the delivery month approaches, the market focus shifts from expectations to fundamentals [49]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of 1090 - 1150 yuan for FG [50]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled, and short - selling funds have increased. The overall production of soda ash has slightly decreased, and the inventory of soda ash plants has decreased for the third week but is still at a historical high. The supply - demand surplus pattern has not significantly improved, and the fundamentals are bearish under the background of high supply and high inventory. The market logic has shifted from macro - policy expectations to the industrial fundamentals [54]. - **Strategy**: Wait patiently for the price to pull back [54]. Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Due to summer device maintenance, industry start - up has declined. Some downstream alumina plants have resumed production, and alumina production and capacity utilization have increased. Caustic soda supply and demand are balanced, but inventory is high compared to the same period, and there is no obvious fundamental driver for the futures price. Macro - policy expectations have cooled, and the downstream alumina futures price has pulled back [59]. - **Strategy**: Adjust the operation cycle to be shorter [59]. Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Domestic and foreign methanol devices have increased their loads, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase. In August, port methanol is expected to start the inventory accumulation cycle. Demand is relatively good, but traditional demand has declined. Social inventory is low overall, but the trend is to accumulate. The cost support is stable [62]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 2370 - 2420 yuan for MA [63]. Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Urea device start - up remains high, and production pressure is not reduced. Domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and factory inventory has increased, but exports are relatively good, and port inventory has decreased. The domestic urea fundamentals are still relatively loose, and there is no macro - economic upside surprise [2]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions in batches, short positions can be established on rallies. Urea has a wide - range oscillation, and double - selling options can be used. Pay attention to the range of 1705 - 1735 yuan for UR [2]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The cost - end oil price has room to compress, and raw material supply is sufficient. Supply has increased while demand has decreased, inventory has accumulated, and the current cracking spread is at a high level, with over - valuation [2]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 3600 - 3700 yuan for BU [2]. Propylene - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The August propane CP quotation has decreased, weakening cost support. The spot decline has slowed down, and the futures price is closing the basis. PDH start - up has continued to rise, and factory inventory is at a high level and accumulating. PP powder start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, and demand support is insufficient [2]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on rebounds, hold the 1 - 2 monthly reverse spread, and go long on the PP futures processing fee. Pay attention to the range of 6450 - 6600 yuan for PL [2].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 观望 | 供需方面，螺纹产量基本持平，需求环比回落，库存有所上升。铁水产量 | | | | 环比略降，绝对水平仍高。淡季中供需因素权重下降，市场情绪降温后或 | | | | 区间运行，短线或有反弹，但对上方高度不宜过分乐观。【3190，3250】 | | 热卷 | 观望 | 热卷产量、表需小幅回升，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷 | | | | 出口利润回落明显，后期出口或受一定影响。市场失望情绪释放后或有短 | | | | 线反弹，观望为宜。【3390，3450】 | | 铁矿石 | 空单持有 | 基本面看，铁水产量转降，供给端发货增到货受台风影响下降，后续发到 货预计有增量。港口钢厂库存双增。基本面中性，政治局会议阶段性不及 | | | | 预期，短期价格恐承压。【755,805】 | | | | 会议未释放刺激政策自己反内卷的增量信息，市场情绪有所降温。焦炭现 货自前期低点涨幅落后于期货，现货第五轮提涨。焦企利润仍不佳，生产 | | 焦炭 | 观望 | 积极性一般。焦炭供需总体相对平衡， ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 气候中心中性预期，且美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，预计将 | | | | 持续至 9 月底，8 月累库速度较 7 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关 | | | | 键成本支撑。本周最新中美谈判结果出炉，维持原关税率，并再展期 90 天。成本 | | | | 支撑预期下，豆粕价格下档存在支持。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑的多 | | | | 空因素交织作用下，近两周内豆粕以大区间行情对待，技术操作为主。主力【2960， | | | | 3030】 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽少部分地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国 | | | | 内市场，目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较 | | | | 高水平。7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧 | | | | 作加籽的强势。对菜粕价格构成较强支持，但不断改善的加籽进口利润对菜粕价格 | | 菜粕 | 大区间震荡 | 构成上档压力。现货市场方面， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously go long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and try to go long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Short on rebounds [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the gold and silver markets are affected by US inflation data and tariff negotiations, facing adjustments, but the long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged due to factors such as central bank gold purchases and loose monetary policies [1][2][3] - Copper has short - term inventory pressure due to the traditional off - season, but is bullish in the long - term because of the tight supply of copper concentrates and the increasing demand from the new energy industry [1][7][8] - Zinc is under short - term pressure due to the off - season and increasing supply, and is recommended to short on rebounds in the long - term as supply increases and demand decreases throughout the year [1][11][12] - Aluminum is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand in the off - season, and short - term rebound shorting is recommended [1][15][16] - Nickel is facing pressure due to weak downstream support and inventory accumulation, and shorting on rebounds is advised [1][19][20] - Lithium carbonate has a bearish outlook in the short - term as the fundamentals show inventory accumulation and weak demand, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [1][23][24] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US inflation data exceeds expectations, which weakens the interest - rate cut expectation, and the tariff risk fades, causing the gold and silver markets to face adjustments [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US - Mexico tariff negotiation is postponed, US data reduces the interest - rate cut expectation, and global gold demand continues to grow. In the short - term, the tariff risk fades, but in the long - term, the long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 760 for gold in the short - term. For silver, wait for it to stop falling and stabilize before going long as its long - term fundamentals are positive [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and falls back, testing the support at the 78,000 level [7] - **Industry Logic**: In the short - term, the contradiction lies in the inventory accumulation in the off - season and the inventory return pressure. In the medium - term, there is a co - existence of tight supply of copper concentrates and high production of electrolytic copper. In the long - term, there is uncertainty in demand due to trade wars and the potential demand explosion in the new energy field [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the tariff adjustment, COMEX copper plummets, and Shanghai copper is under pressure. Wait for copper to fully adjust before lightly going long. In the long - term, be bullish on copper [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates narrowly at a low level [11] - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is loose, and domestic refined zinc production increases. The demand is weak in the off - season [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the macro - sentiment fades, zinc returns to its fundamentals. Short - term pressure causes it to fall back and consolidate at a low level. Partially take profit on previous short positions, and short on rebounds in the long - term [12] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure and weak, and alumina prices fall back [14] - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory accumulates and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, the supply - demand pattern is loose [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on short - term rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the inventory accumulation progress in the off - season [16] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure and weaken, while stainless steel rebounds slightly [18] - **Industry Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines falls, and domestic nickel supply - demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Stainless steel production cuts weaken, and there is still over - supply in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduces positions for four consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a drop of over 4% [22] - **Industry Logic**: The total inventory continues to accumulate, but the price increase transfers inventory from upstream to intermediate links. There are risks in Jiangxi's lithium mining licenses, and the market is volatile [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the speculative atmosphere fades, short on rebounds in the range of 68,000 - 70,500 [24]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 本次会议未释放增量刺激信息，也未重申反内卷政策，市场略显失望。供 | | | | 需方面，螺纹供需相对平衡，铁水产量绝对水平仍高。行情整体进入高位 | | | | 波动，短线或有回落。【3250，3300】 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量、表需小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷 | | | | 出口利润回落明显，后期出口或受一定影响。月底会议未释放进一步限制 | | | | 供给的增量信息，市场情绪略显失望，行情短线偏空。【3420，3480】 | | 铁矿石 | 空单持有 | 基本面看，铁水产量转降，供给端发货增到货受台风影响下降，后续发到 货预计有增量。港口钢厂库存双增。基本面中性，政治局会议阶段性不及 | | | | 预期，短期价格恐承压。【760，810】 | | | 谨慎看空 | 会议未释放刺激政策自己反内卷的增量信息，市场情绪有所降温。焦炭现 | | | | 货自前期低点涨幅落后于期货，现货进入第五轮提涨。焦企利润 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Hold short positions [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks outweigh the weakening fundamentals, with oil prices showing near - term strength and long - term weakness. Hold short positions [1][3][4] - LPG: Cost - end support and decent fundamentals lead to a rebound. Cautiously bullish [1][6][7] - L: Downstream inquiries increase. Cautiously bullish, but with a weak fundamental pattern [1][9][13] - PP: High upstream maintenance and improved export margins. Cautiously bullish, but high production limits the rebound space [1][16][20] - PVC: Insufficient policy support for demand in the short term. Cautiously bearish [1][23][26] - PX: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and crude oil prices are strong. Cautiously bullish [1][29][31] - PTA: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Cautiously bearish [1][33][35] - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the macro situation does not exceed expectations. Cautiously bearish [1][37][39] - Glass: The market is affected by policy expectations, with inventory reduction. Cautiously bearish [2][41][43] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, but with inventory accumulation and weak downstream support. Cautiously bearish [2][44][45] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, and demand is mixed. Cautiously bearish [2][46][47] - Methanol: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand feedback needs attention. Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Fundamentals are relatively loose, with cost support. Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cost - end pressure and neutral - bearish fundamentals. Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak basis and abundant supply. Cautiously bearish [2] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices continued to strengthen. WTI rose 1.14%, Brent rose 1.10%, and SC rose 1.77% [3] - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical and macro factors are favorable in the short term, but OPEC's production increase brings supply pressure. In terms of supply, Guyana's average crude oil production in the first half of the year was 639,000 barrels per day, and the EU imposed new sanctions on Russia. In terms of demand, India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% compared with the previous month, while China's imports increased. In terms of inventory, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased [4] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [525 - 540] [5] LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 30, the PG main contract closed at 4045 yuan/ton, up 0.62% [6] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price stabilizes, and downstream chemical demand recovers. The base spread is high, and inventory shows some changes. The supply of liquefied gas has decreased slightly, and the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates have increased [7] - **Strategy**: Sell put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4000 - 4100] [8] L - **Market Performance**: Futures prices showed minor fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume decreased [10] - **Fundamentals**: The off - peak season for agricultural films is about to pass, and downstream inquiries have increased. However, most devices are restarting, and social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks. The base spread and monthly spread are at low levels [13] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, and industrial customers can sell for hedging when the delivery month approaches. L is expected to be in the range of [7300 - 7500] [13] PP - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined with reduced positions [17] - **Fundamentals**: High upstream maintenance and improved export margins, but downstream replenishment power is insufficient, and commercial inventory has started to accumulate. The base spread and monthly spread are at low levels, and high production limits the rebound space [20] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, and industrial customers can sell for hedging. PP is expected to be in the range of [7000 - 7300] [20] PVC - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined with reduced positions [23] - **Fundamentals**: The Politburo meeting did not mention the real estate market, resulting in insufficient short - term demand - side policy support. New production capacity is being released, and social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks [26] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. V is expected to be in the range of [5050 - 5300] [26] PX - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices showed certain changes [29] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with inventory reduction but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and crude oil prices are strong recently [31] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options. PX is expected to be in the range of [6970 - 7050] [31][32] PTA - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices changed [33] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase due to new device production, and demand is seasonally weak. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries are somewhat differentiated. TA's fundamentals are expected to shift from tight balance to looseness [35] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, shrink the PTA processing fee, or sell call options. TA is expected to be in the range of [4820 - 4890] [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices changed [37] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders are declining. Supply and demand are in a tight balance in July, and low inventory provides some support [39] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. EG is expected to be in the range of [4390 - 4470] [40] Glass - **Market Performance**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rose slightly [42] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, the market sentiment was strong. The inventory continued to decline, and the profit situation improved [43] - **Strategy**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1180, 1260] [43] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Heavy - soda ash spot prices were stable, and the futures market showed mixed trends [44] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the policy expectation, the industry sentiment was boosted, but the alkali plant inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream support was weak [45] - **Strategy**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1300, 1370] [45] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market declined [46] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is approaching saturation, and demand is mixed. The main downstream alumina industry has increased its production, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The inventory of liquid caustic soda has increased [47] - **Strategy**: SH is expected to be in the range of [2610, 2680] [47] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand feedback needs attention. Social inventory has decreased, but overall it is at a low level [2] - **Strategy**: Take profit on long positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. MA is expected to be in the range of [2380 - 2430] [2] Urea - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: The overall domestic supply is relatively loose, with cost support. The demand in the domestic industrial and agricultural sectors is weak, but exports are relatively good [2] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, arrange short positions on rallies, and sell high - strike call options. UR is expected to be in the range of [1710 - 1750] [2] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, and supply and demand are both decreasing. The inventory is accumulating, and the crack spread is at a high level [2] - **Strategy**: Try short positions with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3600 - 3700] [2] Propylene - **Market Performance**: The spot market showed differences in price trends [2] - **Fundamentals**: The PDH operating rate has been rising, and supply is abundant. Pay attention to relevant anti - involution policies [2] - **Strategy**: Hold the 1 - 2 month spread reverse arbitrage and increase the processing fee of the PP futures market. PL is expected to be in the range of [6500 - 6700] [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - For gold, it's recommended to be cautious and go long. Short - term, the market may adjust, but long - term, it's suitable for strategic allocation due to factors like multi - country monetary policy easing and central bank gold purchases [1]. - For silver, it's advisable to try going long after stabilization. It follows the adjustment of gold and copper, but with a long - term upward trend due to economic demand and fiscal stimulus [1]. - For copper, it's suggested to go long on dips. Although it's under short - term pressure, it's still promising in the long run [1]. - For zinc, it's recommended to sell on rallies. It will face short - term pressure and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long run [1]. - For lead, its price rebound is under pressure due to factors like inventory accumulation [1]. - For tin, its price rebound is under pressure because of slow复产 and inventory accumulation [1]. - For aluminum, its price rebound is under pressure due to high imports and inventory accumulation [1]. - For nickel, its price rebound is under pressure because of factors like inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand [1]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, it's advisable to be cautiously bullish, being vigilant about the risk of price drops [1]. - For lithium carbonate, it's advisable to be cautiously bullish, paying attention to support levels and being vigilant about price drops [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Due to Powell's tight - lipped stance, strong US data, and the fading of tariff risks, the gold and silver market has adjusted [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Tariff tensions have eased, US data has reduced the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the Fed's interest - rate decision has maintained the status quo. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support levels of gold at around 760 and silver at 9000 during the adjustment period [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper opened lower and fluctuated downward [5]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, electrolytic copper production is increasing, demand has mixed performance, and inventory is accumulating [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to factors like the expected exemption of copper tariffs and inventory accumulation, copper is under short - term pressure but promising in the long run. Focus on the price range of Shanghai copper at [77500, 79500] and London copper at [9650, 9850] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure, and London zinc lost the 2800 mark [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, refined zinc production is increasing, and demand is weak during the off - season [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the fading of macro - sentiment, zinc returns to its fundamentals. It's under short - term pressure and has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long run. Focus on the price range of Shanghai zinc at [22400, 22800] and London zinc at [2650, 2850] dollars per ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rebound was weak, and alumina rebounded and then declined [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, production capacity is increasing, inventory is accumulating, and demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is also accumulating [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000, 20800] [13]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price rebound was under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [15]. - **Industry Logic**: For nickel, overseas uncertainty remains, and inventory is accumulating. For stainless steel, production cuts are weakening, and inventory pressure is emerging during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000, 123000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for three consecutive days and rose and then fell during the day [19]. - **Industry Logic**: Total inventory is accumulating, but price increases are shifting inventory. Production is rising despite some company cut - offs. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses is a focus, and there may be significant fluctuations [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to wait and see, paying attention to the support at 68,000. The price range is [70000, 73500] [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Bean Meal**: It is expected to show a large - range oscillation. The domestic soybean and bean meal are in the inventory - accumulation stage until the end of September, with the inventory - accumulation speed in August expected to slow down compared to July. The Sino - US trade tariff is the key cost support for bean meal. After the latest Sino - US negotiation result, the original tariff rate is maintained and extended for 90 days. Under the cost - support expectation, the domestic bean meal price rebounded. With the combination of weak fundamentals and cost support, it presents a large - range market [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is expected to have a large - range oscillation. The global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, but there is dry soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories of oil mills are decreasing month - on - month, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. From July to September, the rapeseed import decreased significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts upward pressure. The low spot price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal reduces the feed addition of rapeseed meal. Yesterday, rapeseed meal followed the price of bean meal and continued to rebound [1][4][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Be cautious about chasing long positions. After a series of previous positive factors, the market lacks more positive drivers, and Malaysian palm oil may return to the July supply - demand fundamentals. Based on the production and export data from the first 25 days of July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July. In the next one to two weeks, the price may need to adjust, and opportunities to go long after the price stabilizes can be considered [1][7][9]. - **Cotton**: Be cautiously bearish. The soil moisture in the main cotton - producing areas of the US has slightly deteriorated, but the new cotton growth is still good. The weekly export has weakened significantly, suppressing the upward movement of the market. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have increased, pushing up the guaranteed output. The commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment of downstream finished products has slowed down recently, weakening the cotton - using expectation. The orders of textile enterprises have reached a five - year low, and the operating rate is gradually decreasing. The negative feedback of demand on the inventory - reduction logic is gradually reflected in the market [1][10][13]. - **Red Dates**: Be cautiously bearish. The growth of new - season jujube trees is relatively good. The market previously expected a significant decline in production due to the "alternate - bearing" phenomenon, but there are no obvious signs of significant production reduction in the second and third - crop fruit - setting in the producing areas. The self - regulatory statement of some enterprises in the industry is difficult to promote widely. With weak fundamentals, there is great pressure for the price to rise after filling the gap. Opportunities to short at high prices after the price rebounds driven by macro - sentiment can be considered [1][15][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Be cautiously bullish. The risk of second - fattening selling has been realized, and the accelerated short - term slaughter rhythm has pushed down the price of live pigs. However, considering the short - term rebound of the price difference between standard and fat pigs, there is still some enthusiasm in the second - fattening link, making it difficult for the near - month contracts to break through downward. The fact of medium - and long - term over - capacity remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent capacity reduction can boost the far - month price. For near - month contracts, short positions can consider gradually taking profits, and for far - month contracts, long positions can be established at low prices after the spot price stabilizes [1][17][19]. 3. Summaries by Variety Bean Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 106,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.4559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons; the bean meal inventory was 1.0431 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,700 tons. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' bean meal were 8.19 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 days [3]. - **Price**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of bean meal was 3,010 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 27 yuan or 0.91%. The national average spot price was 2,969.71 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 36.28 yuan or 1.24% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 137,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 54,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in the main regions of the country was 665,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,300 tons [6]. - **Price**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of rapeseed meal was 2,735 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 75 yuan or 2.82%. The national average spot price was 2,698.42 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 85.26 yuan or 3.26% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 615,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,100 tons or 4.08%, and a year - on - year increase of 108,800 tons or 21.47% [9]. - **Price**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of palm oil was 8,982 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 12 yuan or 0.13%. The national average price was 9,063 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 58 yuan or 0.64% [7]. Cotton - **Production**: In China, the new cotton in Xinjiang has entered the boll - setting stage, with a flowering rate of over 90%. The high - temperature weather in Xinjiang will significantly ease this week, and the probability of re - hyping high - temperature factors is low. The seedling conditions in each main producing area are better than last year, and the national average yield per unit is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, with the output expected to reach over 7.4 million tons [12]. - **Inventory**: The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons, lower than the same period last year by 37,600 tons. The inventory of pure - cotton yarn and grey cloth continued to accumulate and was higher than last year, but the inventory - accumulation speed slowed down significantly this week [12]. - **Price**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, decreased by 1.89% during the day, closing at 13,755 yuan/ton. The domestic spot price remained stable at 15,558 yuan/ton [10][11]. Red Dates - **Production**: The new - season jujube trees are growing well. The market previously expected a significant decline in production, but the actual situation shows that the production reduction may be within 10%, lower than the previous expectation [15][16]. - **Inventory**: According to Mysteel's research data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons, higher than the same period last year by 4,422 tons, and the inventory - reduction speed has accelerated compared to the previous four weeks [15]. - **Price**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, increased by 0.65% during the day, closing at 10,805 yuan/ton [14][15]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Output**: The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 3.71993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,520 tons or 0.31%; the live - pig output was 1.12559 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,770 tons or 1.51%. The national inventory of breeding sows was 4.043 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons or 0.02% [17]. - **Price**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2509, decreased by 0.49% during the day, closing at 14,075 yuan/ton. The domestic live - pig spot price decreased by 0.14% to 14,210 yuan/ton [17][18].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普就俄乌冲突对普京施压，IMF 上调全球经济增速，油价反弹。宏观 | | | | 及地缘带来利好，短期提振油价；从供需基本面看，油价进入旺季下半程， | | 原油 | 反弹加空 | 随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大， | | | | 当前供给端重要变量集中在美国产能变化。策略：卖出 10 合约同时买入 | | | | 看涨期权对冲风险。SC【520-535】 | | LPG | 谨慎看多 | 油价企稳反弹，自身基本面尚可，液化气反弹。成本端原油反弹，但中长 | | | | 期仍有压缩空间；基差处于高位，估值偏低；下游化工需求回升，PDH 开 | | | | 工率升至 73.13%；供给和库存中性偏多，国内商品量小幅下降，港口库 | | | | 存有所下降。策略：卖出看跌期权。PG【4000-4100】 | | L | 谨慎看多 | 原油上涨，中美贸易谈判结束。社会库存连续 5 周累库，基本面承压。塑 | | | | 料煤制占比 20%，老旧产能占比 14%，多数产能已 ...