沪铜周报 市场静待非农数据，铜上方空间打开 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-09-05 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】美非农数据即将公布，美联储降息预期走高，铜宏微共振，重回8万关口，铜上方 空间打开，建议铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现 【策略展望】 整体而言，美非农数据即将公布，美联储降息预期走高，国内93大阅兵圆满结束，市场信心提振。 基本面上，矿供应扰动和金九银十旺季需求复苏，国内铜社会库存偏紧，铜宏微共振，震荡上行。 短期建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分可逐步逢高止盈兑现，企业卖出套保可逢高布局时机，锁定 合理利润，警惕美联储降息预期落空和需求证伪带来铜价高位回落风险。 【风险提示】 政策不及预期，需求不足，中美关系 4 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 美通胀符合预期，美联储9月降息几乎板上钉钉 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish continuation [3] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The consumption peak season in the US has ended, inventories are rising, and attention should be paid to the new OPEC+ production policy. With OPEC+ gradually increasing production, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus is rising, and there is significant downward pressure on oil prices [1][5]. - LPG is affected by the decline in the cost - end crude oil price, and the supply surplus situation persists [1]. - The cost support for L is weakening, but with the approaching of the seasonal peak season in September, the supply - demand pattern will gradually turn to a dual - strong situation [1]. - The cost - end methanol support for PP has improved, but the peak - season demand is lackluster, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose in the medium term [1]. - PVC has weak cost support, a supply - strong and demand - weak fundamental situation, and continuous inventory accumulation [1]. - For PX, the tight supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and the cost support is expected to weaken [1]. - PTA's supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, while the demand side shows signs of recovery. The tight supply - demand balance in August - September is expected to ease in the fourth quarter [2]. - MEG's supply - side pressure is expected to rise, but the demand side has positive expectations due to the consumption peak season [2]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Urea's supply is expected to be loose, but the export situation is good, and there are speculative expectations [2]. - Asphalt's cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - Glass has weak demand support, high enterprise inventories, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [3]. - Soda ash has high inventories, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 0.77%, Brent dropped 0.90%, and SC dropped 1.67% [4]. - **Basic logic**: The US crude oil consumption peak season has ended, inventories are increasing, and OPEC+ production increase is exerting pressure on oil prices. The price may fall to around $60 in the medium - long term [5]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may continue to increase production, but there is high uncertainty. Indian crude oil imports have decreased, and US crude oil inventories have increased [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of [475 - 490] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market review**: On September 4, the PG main contract closed at 4383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% [10]. - **Basic logic**: LPG's price mainly follows the cost - end crude oil price. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the cost - end still has downward potential [11]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [12]. L - **Market review**: The L01 closing price was 7225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3% [15]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support is weakening, but with the approaching of the peak season in September, the supply - demand pattern will turn better. Pay attention to inventory destocking [16]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly. Look for opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7300] for L [16]. PP - **Market review**: The PP01 closing price was 6965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.1% [19]. - **Basic logic**: Cost - end methanol support has improved, but demand is lackluster. The supply - demand pattern is loose in the medium term, but there is support at the bottom [21]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Next week, supply will decrease and demand will increase. Look for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP [21]. PVC - **Market review**: The V01 closing price was 4883 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.1% [24]. - **Basic logic**: Spot prices continue to fall, cost support is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The export situation is not optimistic [26]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Due to low - valuation support, be cautious about short - chasing. Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [26]. PX - **Market review**: The PX11 contract closed at 6878 yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, demand is weakening but with improved expectations. The tight supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and cost support is weakening [29]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of [6610 - 6720] for PX511 [30]. PTA - **Market review**: The TA01 closed at 4784 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic logic**: Recent device maintenance has led to a decline in production, but future supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand side shows signs of recovery. The tight supply - demand balance in August - September is expected to ease in the fourth quarter [33]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, it is weak. Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of [4610 - 4680] for TA01 [34]. MEG - **Market review**: The EG01 closed at 4466 yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased production, and overseas devices have little change. The supply - side pressure is expected to rise, while the demand side has positive expectations [36]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Take profits on long positions on rallies and look for opportunities to short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of [4310 - 4370] for EG01 [37]. Methanol - **Market review**: The methanol main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weakening [39]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, the upward movement cannot change the weak situation. Look for opportunities to short on rallies for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2375 - 2425] for MA01 [41]. Urea - **Market review**: The urea main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, but the export situation is good. There are speculative expectations [44]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Look for low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [44]. Asphalt - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: The cost - end oil price may decline in the medium - long term, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions [3]. Glass - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: Demand support is weak, enterprise inventories are high, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rebounds [3]. Soda ash - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: Inventories are high, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rebounds [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: Supply - demand contradictions persist, and the market is weak. For rebar, iron - water production has decreased significantly but is expected to rebound. Rebar production and apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory increased. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand decreased, inventory increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The overall steel supply - demand shows a loosening trend, and there are limited short - term positive factors. The weak fundamentals may lead to a mid - term decline [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production decreased more than expected, some steel mills postponed resuming production. Port inventory is accumulating, and short - term restocking demand from steel mills is weak. Overseas ore shipments increased while arrivals decreased, with neutral - weak fundamentals. Ore prices are oscillating weakly [1][8]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts has started, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Coking profits are good, and production is expected to gradually recover after the military parade. Iron - water production decreased but is expected to rebound. The weak terminal demand for steel may lead to a mid - term decline, but there may be a technical rebound after continuous short - term declines [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by the military parade, production decreased significantly but is expected to gradually recover. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level, and imports are running at a high level. The main contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, with a mid - term downward adjustment risk, but there may be a rebound after continuous short - term declines [1][16]. - **Silicomanganese**: Weekly production continued to increase with a slower growth rate, demand increased slightly, and enterprise inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons to 14.9 million tons. Steel mills' restocking in September is about to start. The October manganese ore quotes from Comilog and Union Mining are the same as the previous round, providing some cost support. The short - term upward and downward space is limited, and the market is weak [1][19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Weekly production decreased, demand increased slightly, and enterprise inventory increased by 830 tons to 6.29 million tons. The short - term upward and downward space is limited, and the market is weak [1][19][20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar futures prices (01 contract: 3117, up 11; 05 contract: 3167, up 12; 10 contract: 3035, up 1) and hot - rolled coil futures prices (01 contract: 3313, up 14; 05 contract: 3325, up 15; 10 contract: 3329, up 19) are provided. Spot prices and various price differences such as basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads are also presented [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Currently in the stage of verifying demand, the weakness of the real estate and infrastructure sectors may drag down the mid - term performance of rebar. For hot - rolled coils, the overall steel supply - demand loosening trend and limited short - term positive factors may lead to a mid - term decline [5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore futures prices (01 contract: 792, up 15; 05 contract: 768, up 13; 09 contract: 831, up 18), spot prices of different iron ore powders, and various price differences such as basis, spreads, and ratios are provided. Also, sea - freight and spot index information are included [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [9]. Coke - **Price and Data Information**: Futures prices of different coke contracts, basis, spot prices, and weekly data on production, inventory, and profit are provided. For example, the 1 - month contract price is 1581.5, down 12.5; the full - sample independent coking enterprise capacity utilization rate is 73.4%, down 1.1% [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [13]. Coking Coal - **Price and Data Information**: Futures prices of different coking coal contracts, basis, spot prices, and weekly data on production, inventory, and related indicators are provided. For example, the 1 - month contract price is 1094.5, down 11.5; the sample coal - washing plant start - up rate is 61.5%, down 0.8% [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [17]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Data Information**: Futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, and weekly data on production, inventory, and enterprise start - up rates are provided for both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon. For example, the silicomanganese 01 contract price is 5730, down 2; the silicon - manganese enterprise start - up rate is 46.45%, down 0.55% [18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon, the short - term upward and downward space is limited, and the market is weak [20].

| . | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 周末 ProFarmer 公布最终美豆单产调研结果，预计单产为 53 蒲式耳，小于美农 8 | | 豆粕 | | 月预计，偏利多。美豆地区未来十五天降雨低于正常水平。本周美豆周度优良率环 比下降，偏利多。但美豆收获临近叠加，国内短期供应充足，市场做多追多心态谨 | | ★ | 短线止跌整理 | 慎。前日国内豆粕小幅收跌，延续近期盘整区间运行。次级反弹对待，但临近美豆 | | | | 收获，看多追多谨慎对待，注意仓位及风险控制，短线投机性操作对待。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。上周中加会晤后，尚未 | | 菜粕 | 短线止跌整理 | 有新的进展出现。菜粕前日延续整理，关注中澳后续进展以及加方对于中国反倾销 | | ★ | | 结果是否存在意图改善行为。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 | | 棕榈油 | 短线调整 | 望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。由于 8 月马棕榈油存在继续累库预期，出口报价存在 | | ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 特朗普侵蚀美联储独立性，就业数据支持降息，9 月份降息在即，黄金市场情绪尚可。 | | 黄金 | 做多 | 中长期，主要国家货币财政政策双宽松，地缘格局重塑，央行继续买黄金，黄金资 | | ★★ | | 产配置需求强烈。长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | | | 短期白银跟随黄金市场波动，调整幅度比黄金更大。白银自身由于双宽政策积极， | | 白银 | 做多 | 中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化，使得需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，供需缺口明 | | ★★ | | 显，白银向上趋势不变。短期关注美元流动性风险 | | | | 市场静待美非农数据，建议铜多单继续持有，部分可止盈落袋，中长期，铜作为中 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看好。 | | ★★ | | | | 锌 | 反弹沽空 | 国内政策真空期，锌需求不足，库存累库，建议锌空单继续持有，关注下方 2 万 2 | | ★ | | 关口支撑。中长期看锌供增需减，仍是板块空头配 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Weak operation due to supply - demand contradictions, with a cautious - bearish outlook [3][5] - **Iron Ore**: Neutral - bearish fundamentals, suggesting to reduce short positions [6][7] - **Coke**: Bearish in the medium - term [8][11] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish in the medium - term [12][15] - **Ferroalloys**: Weak operation as fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, with a cautious - bearish outlook [16][18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The supply - demand relationship of steel products has contradictions. For rebar, although demand has increased month - on - month, it is still lower than production, and inventory continues to rise. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory has increased slightly [3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are piling up. External ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the macro sentiment has cooled down, resulting in a weakening of the ore price [6] - **Coke**: Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and the game between steel and coking enterprises is obvious. Some coking enterprises may have production restrictions before the parade. Iron - water production remains high, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - term due to the expected resumption of production [10] - **Coking Coal**: Affected by the parade, production has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to recover gradually later. The downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and there are multiple failed auctions of Mongolian coal. There is a lack of positive factors, and there is a risk of downward adjustment in the medium - term [14] - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down, and inventory has decreased. For ferrosilicon, production has decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. The fundamental contradictions of both are yet to accumulate [16][17][18] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Currently, blast - furnace profits have decreased compared to the previous period but remain positive. Iron - water production is running stably at a high level and may decrease due to pre - parade production restrictions. Demand has increased month - on - month but is still lower than production, and inventory continues to rise, with room for decline in the medium - term [4][5] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has increased slightly, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The overall supply - demand of steel products shows a loosening trend, and there is a risk of decline in the medium - term [4][5] Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Iron - water production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are piling up. External ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the macro sentiment has cooled down, leading to a weakening of the ore price [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Reduce short positions [7] Coke - **Market Situation**: Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and the game between steel and coking enterprises is obvious. Some coking enterprises may have production restrictions before the parade. Iron - water production remains high, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - term due to the expected resumption of production [10] - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish [11] Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: Affected by the parade, production has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to recover gradually later. The downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and there are multiple failed auctions of Mongolian coal. There is a lack of positive factors, and there is a risk of downward adjustment in the medium - term [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish [15] Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: Weekly production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. Demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. Steel mills will start restocking in September. The October manganese ore quotes from Comilog and United Mining to China are the same as the previous round, and the cost side has certain support. The fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, and it is expected to run weakly in the short - term [16][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Weekly production has decreased, demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 62,900 tons, an increase of 830 tons month - on - month. The fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, and it is expected to run weakly in the short - term [16][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★ (Bullish) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Bullish) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Bullish) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Lead: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Tin: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Bullish) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Cautiously Bearish) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to continue their upward trend in the long - term due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. In the short - term, they are also strong [1][2][3]. - Copper is expected to maintain a tight supply - demand balance. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will pick up. It is recommended to hold long positions and some can take profits [1][5][6]. - Zinc has insufficient demand and increasing inventory in the short - term. In the long - term, supply will increase while demand decreases, so it is recommended to short on rebounds [1][9][10]. - Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure due to inventory overhang. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term [1][13][14]. - Nickel prices are under pressure as the impact of mine - end disturbances weakens. It is recommended to wait and see after taking profits [1][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see for stabilization [1][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Due to factors such as interest rate cuts, tariff disputes, and concerns about the Fed's independence, gold has reached a new high, and silver has also broken through historical highs [2][3] Fundamental Logic - Weak economic data in the US and Germany, Fed officials' support for interest rate cuts, and the Fed's economic beige - book report indicating economic stagnation and reduced inflation concerns. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2] Strategy Recommendation - Gold has support around 804 in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the performance around the recent high of 838. Silver has support around 9700. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has been consolidating at a high level and has firmly stood above the 80,000 - yuan mark [5] Industrial Logic - Tight supply of copper concentrates, with processing fees still in deep inversion. Production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will gradually pick up. Overseas inventory is increasing, but domestic exchange inventory is decreasing, and social inventory is at a low level [5] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and some can take profits at high prices. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions near the previous high. In the long - term, copper is optimistic due to its strategic importance and asset - allocation value [6] Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has been oscillating under pressure [9] Industrial Logic - Abundant supply of zinc concentrates, rising processing fees, and increased smelter production enthusiasm. However, it is the off - season for demand, and domestic inventory is increasing while overseas inventory is decreasing [9] Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc is weak domestically and strong overseas. Pay attention to the support at 22,000 yuan. In the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [10] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [12] Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. Production is increasing slightly, and inventory is rising. The demand side has shown some improvement. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with inventory gradually accumulating [13] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have fallen under pressure, and stainless steel has also shown a downward trend [16] Industrial Logic - There are expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The supply of refined nickel in the domestic market is excessive, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. Stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly, but the effect of production cuts is weakening [17] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see after taking profits, paying attention to changes in downstream inventory [18] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 has opened low and gone lower, falling more than 3% [20] Industrial Logic - Rumors of CATL's resumption of production have eased supply concerns. Production remains stable, and inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks. Terminal demand is approaching the peak season [21] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for stabilization in the range of 71,300 - 73,000 yuan [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and attention should be paid to the new round of OPEC+ production policy this weekend. Oil prices are under downward pressure in the medium and long term and may fall to around $60 [7]. - LPG: Affected by the cost - end crude oil, LPG is weak. The current supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price mainly follows the oil price [10]. - L: Cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern is gradually turning into a double - strong one in September. It is recommended to try long positions on pullbacks [16]. - PP: The demand peak season is lackluster, and the supply will remain under pressure. The upward drive is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [21]. - PVC: The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, but the industrial chain has a large inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and wait and see [26]. - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks [30]. - PTA: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the market risk preference is increasing. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks [33]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices [37]. - Methanol: The fundamentals remain weak, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short the 01 contract at high prices [40]. - Urea: The domestic fundamentals are relatively loose, but there are upper and lower limits. It is recommended to focus on the low - long opportunities of the 01 contract [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 2.47%, Brent dropped 2.23%, and SC rose 0.41% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are rising, the peak season is ending, OPEC+ production increases are putting pressure on oil prices, and in the medium and long term, oil prices may fall to around $60. Focus on the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: There is uncertainty about OPEC+ production increase. As of August 20, India's crude oil imports decreased. As of August 22, US commercial crude inventories decreased, and strategic crude reserves increased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the support at around $60 for new shale oil wells. SC focuses on the range of [480 - 490] [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 3, the PG main contract closed at 4429 yuan/ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of LPG is not significant, and the price mainly depends on the cost - end oil price. The cost - end still has room to decline. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has decreased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4300 - 4400] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7252 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan day - on - day; the North China Ning coal price was 7160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 196 lots [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern will gradually turn into a double - strong one in September. The production is expected to increase by 40,000 tons, and the demand support is strengthening [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the market sentiment and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Try long positions on pullbacks. L focuses on the range of [7200 - 7300] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan day - on - day; the East China wire drawing market price was 6895 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 1205 lots [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand peak season is lackluster, the inventory of traders has increased significantly, and the supply will remain under pressure. The upward drive is insufficient, but the absolute price is low, so there is also support at the bottom [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upward drive of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see. PP focuses on the range of [6900 - 7000] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4888 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan day - on - day; the Changzhou spot price was 4680 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 612 lots [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, but the industrial chain has a large inventory accumulation pressure. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - selling due to low - valuation support and wait and see. V focuses on the range of [4750 - 4950] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side domestic and foreign devices have changed little, the demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance volume is high. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the PXN is not low. The cost support is weakening due to the rumored OPEC+ oil production increase [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks. PX511 focuses on the range of [6680 - 6810] [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA East China price was 4740 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the devices have been overhauled as planned, and the overhaul volume is relatively high. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future. The demand side shows signs of recovery. The 8 - 9 month supply - demand is in a tight balance, which is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. The cost support is weakening, but the market risk preference is increasing [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks. TA01 focuses on the range of [4650 - 4730] [36]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, and overseas devices have changed little. The downstream demand is expected to be good, but the market expects the arrival volume to increase in the middle and late August, and the supply - side pressure will rise [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions at high prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. EG01 focuses on the range of [4300 - 4350] [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [40]. - **Basic Logic**: This week, the overhauled devices have gradually resumed, and the supply - side pressure has increased. The demand side is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short the 01 contract at high prices. MA01 focuses on the range of [2360 - 2390] [43]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the urea main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [45]. - **Basic Logic**: This week, the daily urea production is expected to continue to decline, but new devices will be put into operation as planned, and the daily production is expected to gradually recover in mid - and early September. The domestic demand is weak, but exports are good. The inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term long - short game intensifies, with range fluctuations. Focus on the low - long opportunities of the 01 contract [3].

风险提示：本报告对期货品种设置"★"关注等级（1-3 级），其中红色（★）代表多头占优，绿色（★）代表空头占优，颜色标 注仅为当前市场多空力量的客观对比，不预示未来价格必然向该方向运行（如"红色"不代表"一定涨"，可能因突发利空反转）。 关注等级和颜色标注仅代表品种当前市场活跃度、波动特征或事件敏感性的客观观察维度，不构成任何投资建议、收益承诺或未 来表现的保证，投资者须独立判断并承担风险。 1 豆粕：美豆降雨不足 存在止跌整理反弹要求 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 3066 | 3050 | 16 | 0. 52% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3081. 43 | 3080. 29 | 1.14 | 0. 04% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3050 | 3050 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [3] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances do not change the oversupply situation, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East provide support at the bottom, but overall, there is great downward pressure [1][5]. - LPG: It follows the rebound of the cost - end oil price, but the fundamentals of crude oil are bearish, and there is still room for compression below [1]. - L: Cost support improves, and as the seasonal peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will gradually turn into a double - strong pattern. Consider going long on dips [1]. - PP: Cost support improves, but supply will still face pressure in the future. Although the peak - season demand is starting, the medium - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upward drive. However, the absolute price is low, so consider short - term long positions on dips [1]. - PVC: The absolute price is low, and the spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. Cost support has weakened, and there is a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory. Consider short - term long positions due to low - valuation support [1]. - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro expectations are loose. Consider holding long positions and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [1]. - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and market risk appetite has increased. Consider long positions on dips [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices and look for short - selling opportunities [2]. - Methanol: The fundamentals remain weak, but there are short - term disturbances. Consider short positions on the 01 contract at high prices [2]. - Urea: The domestic fundamentals are loose, but exports are good and there are speculative expectations. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [2]. - Asphalt: The cracking spread and BU - FU spread are at high levels, with high valuations. Maintain a bearish view [3]. - Glass: Supply is under pressure, and demand support is insufficient. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and consider short - term long positions on rebounds [3]. - Soda ash: Supply is expected to remain high, and demand is mostly based on rigid needs. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and consider short - term long positions on rebounds [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 2.47%, Brent rose 1.45%, and SC rose 1.28% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase uncertainties. As the peak season ends, demand support for oil prices weakens, and OPEC+ production increases put pressure on oil prices. Supply is increasing, and demand in India has decreased. Pay attention to the final outcome of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5][6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the break - even point of new shale - oil drilling at around $60. SC focuses on the range of [490 - 500] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 2, the PG main contract closed at 4333 yuan/ton, up 1.58% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: LPG supply - demand contradictions are not significant, and prices are mainly pegged to the cost - end oil price. As the oil - consumption peak season ends and OPEC is still increasing production, the cost end has room to decline. Supply has increased slightly, and demand from some downstream industries has decreased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4400 - 4500] [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's open interest increased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, and the spot price in North China has stopped falling and stabilized. As the peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will turn into a double - strong pattern. Some device restarts are planned, and demand from the agricultural film industry is increasing [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips. L focuses on the range of [7200 - 7350] [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP01 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's open interest increased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, but supply will face pressure due to device restarts and new capacity releases. Peak - season demand is starting, and inventory has declined from high levels. The medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose, but the absolute price is low [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions on dips. PP focuses on the range of [6900 - 7000] [21]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price decreased slightly, and the spot price in Changzhou remained flat. The number of warehouse receipts increased [24][25]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute price is low, and the spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. Cost support has weakened due to the continuous decline of thermal coal prices. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory has been accumulating for 10 weeks. Production is expected to increase after some enterprises' maintenance ends [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions due to low - valuation support. V focuses on the range of [4800 - 4950] [25]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price increased, and the PX11 contract closed higher. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side domestic and overseas device changes are not significant. Demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and device maintenance volumes are high. Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still relatively high. Macro factors such as the "anti - involution" expectation in the domestic chemical industry, international geopolitical conflicts, and the expected Fed rate cut in September support the short - term bullish trend [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. PX511 focuses on the range of [6800 - 6920] [29]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA spot price in East China decreased, and the TA01 contract closed lower. The month - spread and basis weakened. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [31]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, and many devices are under maintenance. Supply pressure is expected to increase in the future. Demand is showing signs of recovery, and downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating loads have stopped falling and rebounded. Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. Consider long positions on dips due to low processing fees and increased market risk appetite [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions carefully, and look for buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. TA01 focuses on the range of [4730 - 4790] [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China decreased, and the EG01 contract closed higher. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, and overseas device changes are not significant. Arrival and import volumes are still low. Demand is improving, but market expectations suggest an increase in arrival volumes in the second half of August, increasing supply - side pressure [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions at high prices, and look for short - selling opportunities. EG01 focuses on the range of [4330 - 4390] [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China decreased, and the 01 contract closed lower. The basis and month - spread showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Maintenance devices are gradually resuming, and supply - side pressure is increasing. Demand is weak overall, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support has weakened. Consider short positions on the 01 contract at high prices [38][39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities on the 01 contract at high prices. MA01 focuses on the range of [2360 - 2400] [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong increased, and the main contract closed lower. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Urea daily production is expected to decline this week but may gradually recover in mid - September. Supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weakening. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, there is intense long - short competition, with mainly range - bound fluctuations. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [2].