1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish with potential rebounds [2] - L: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PP: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PX/PTA: Buy on dips [4] - Ethylene Glycol: Bottom - side oscillation, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [4] - Methanol: Add long positions on dips [4] - Urea: Buy on dips [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish trend continuation [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish trend continuation in the second phase [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market for most energy and chemical products is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, geopolitical situations, and cost support. Some products face supply - side pressures, while others are influenced by seasonal demand changes and cost fluctuations. For example, crude oil is pressured by oversupply in the off - season, while natural gas is boosted by increased demand in the winter [2][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.69%, Brent up 0.77%, and SC up 0.47% [8] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term support comes from the Ukraine's attack on the CPC pipeline and South American uncertainties. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, with OPEC+ maintaining its production policy and global and US inventories rising [9] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 5, the US oil rig count increased by 6 to 413. Russia's Tuapse port's oil product exports in December are expected to increase by 21.4%. Market expects India's imports from Russia to reduce by nearly one - third. As of November 28, US crude and product inventories increased [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [445 - 455] for SC [11] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 5, the PG main contract closed at 4294 yuan/ton, down 0.16% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4510 (+10), 4411 (+0), and 4470 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [15] - **Basic Logic**: It is closely related to the cost of crude oil. Although it rebounds with short - term oil price increases, the long - term oil price trend is downward. There is some support from downstream chemical demand, but MTBE blending demand has decreased. Supply has increased, while inventory has decreased [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [17] L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton (-8). The basis was +31 yuan/ton (-22) [20] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthened, leading to a short - term oversold rebound, but spot prices did not follow suit. The supply remains sufficient due to seasonal increases in domestic production. The peak season for shed films is ending, and oil prices may decline in the medium - term [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Exit short positions. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [6750 - 6900] [21] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton (-52). The basis was +89 yuan/ton (+28) [24] - **Basic Logic**: The increase in the parking ratio has alleviated supply pressure, but demand remains weak, and there is a high inventory - reduction pressure. OPEC+ is still in the production - increase cycle, and oil prices may continue to decline. The production of propylene warehouse receipts may lead to a weak market [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It may be strong in the short - term. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Consider going long on PP processing fees. Pay attention to the range of [6350 - 6500] for PP and [5850 - 6000] for propylene [25] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5). The basis was - 76 yuan/ton (-5) [27] - **Basic Logic**: High - level production has continued, and the main contract hit a record low at night. During the macro - policy window period, trading has returned to the weak fundamentals. High social inventory limits upward movement, but low valuation provides some support. Pay attention to the rhythm of capital position - shifting [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [4350 - 4500] [28] PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton (+66) [29] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is generally low, and many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. PX is oscillating weakly. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips or conducting a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of [4635 - 4700] [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas production loads have decreased, but the arrival volume has increased. Downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December. It has a low valuation but lacks upward momentum [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3680 - 3770] [34] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Taicang spot prices have continued to weaken [37] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory restricts spot price rebounds. Domestic production loads have increased, while overseas production loads have decreased. Port inventory is decreasing, but the speed has slowed down. The arrival volume in December is expected to be about 1.3 billion tons. Demand has changed little, and cost support has weakened [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound height of the main contract may be limited. Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of [2040 - 2080] for MA01 [39] Urea - **Market Performance**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened, with a basis of 47 (+25) yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: The daily output is currently high but is expected to decrease as some gas - based enterprises shut down for maintenance in mid - December. Demand is currently good but lacks sustainability. Social inventory has decreased slightly but is still at a high level. Exports have maintained a high growth rate since July [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips with a light position. Pay attention to the range of [1665 - 1695] [43] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 5, the NG main contract closed at 5.063 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.36% month - on - month [45] - **Basic Logic**: Entering the consumption peak season, the extremely cold weather in the US has boosted heating demand. The number of US natural gas drilling platforms has decreased, and EU import bans on Russian gas will be gradually implemented. US natural gas inventory has decreased [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gas prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to increased winter demand. Pay attention to the range of [4.980 - 5.185] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 5, the BU main contract closed at 2948 yuan/ton. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 2930 (-10), 3180 (+0), and 3000 (-50) yuan/ton respectively [50] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. Oil prices have fallen due to geopolitical easing. The comprehensive profit of asphalt has decreased. Supply is expected to decrease in December, while demand has increased slightly. Inventory has decreased [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [2900 - 3000] [52] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16). The basis was 77 yuan/ton (+16) [55] - **Basic Logic**: The daily melting volume has decreased, and multiple production lines are planned for cold repair in December. The real - estate market is weak, and demand remains low [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans in the short - term. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [1020 - 1070] [56] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton (+25). The basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+5) [59] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts have continued to increase, putting pressure on the market through industrial hedging. Supply and demand have both decreased, and long - term supply is expected to be abundant [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [1150 - 1200] [60]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound (short - term), rebound and sell on rallies (long - term) [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Sell on rallies [1] - Lithium carbonate: Correction, then go long after stabilizing [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as US inflation, consumer confidence, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical situations, and major meetings like the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's Politburo meeting. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Core view: Long - term hold. The US inflation and consumer confidence data support interest - rate cuts. The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months. Geopolitical trading has decreased, and gold prices remain high. In the long - term, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, uncertainties persist, and central banks continue to buy gold, so its long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged [1]. Silver - Core view: Long - term hold. In the short - term, there are issues like delivery squeezes and low inventories. Global large - scale fiscal policies are beneficial for silver in the long - run. However, the high spot premium and soaring volatility of silver futures mean it's not advisable to chase the high in the short - term. In the long - term, there is a supply gap, and with global economic stimulus and loose liquidity, the logic for going long remains [1]. - Basic logic: The core of the recent silver rally is the severe supply - demand imbalance. Its strong industrial attributes (such as in photovoltaic, new - energy vehicles, and computing power) and restricted supply have led to a five - year consecutive supply shortage with a cumulative gap of 23,000 tons, and inventories have dropped to a historically tight level, pushing up prices and leasing costs. The recent short - squeeze is a more direct driver. Trump's tariff policy has caused a large - scale transfer of silver from London inventories to the US, resulting in an extreme shortage of London spot silver, a soaring spot premium, and arbitrage trading, further driving up global silver prices. The US including silver in the critical minerals list has intensified tariff concerns, and similar inventory transfers in Asia have exacerbated regional price differences and the upward trend [2]. - Macro - fundamental: US inflation has been continuously cooling (core PCE in September was 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month), and consumer confidence has recovered (Michigan confidence index in December was 53.3, ending a four - month decline), strengthening the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. The White House has called for "prudent rate cuts," and the focus of the December meeting has shifted to potential policy combinations. Besides rate cuts, the Fed may announce a monthly bond - buying program of $45 billion (expected to start in 2026) to ease liquidity pressure, which may mark the restart of balance - sheet expansion [3]. Copper - Core view: Long - term hold. A super - macro week is approaching, with the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's Politburo meeting imminent. Fundamentally, the cancelled LME copper warehouse receipts have increased sharply, heightening concerns about overseas squeezes. In China, inventories are decreasing during the off - season, and non - US copper inventories may gradually run out. Both LME copper and SHFE copper have continuously reached new highs, with increased volatility at high levels. It's recommended to set a trailing stop for long positions. In the long - term, copper is still bullish [1]. - Industry logic: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight. The CSPT group has reached a consensus on reducing the production capacity of copper smelting, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing vicious competition. The latest copper concentrate TC is - $42.83 per ton. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month to 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The increase in copper prices has widened the spread between refined and scrap copper to 5,510 yuan per ton, reaching a new high since May 2024. The arbitrage space of the COMEX - LME price difference has attracted trading giants such as Trafigura and Glencore to actively participate in the large - scale transfer of copper inventories. The US has become a "siphon" for global copper, and non - US copper inventories may gradually dry up, triggering a global copper - buying war [5]. Zinc - Core view: Rebound (short - term), rebound and sell on rallies (long - term). A super - macro week is approaching, the dollar index is weakening, and the macro and sector sentiment is positive. Fundamentally, the processing fees for zinc concentrates continue to decline, and the downstream has entered the consumption off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation overall. In China, inventories are decreasing during the off - season. In the short - term, zinc prices have risen and then fallen. It's recommended to gradually take profits on long positions. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, so the view of selling on rallies remains [1]. - Industry logic: The processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates have continued to decline due to smelters' winter stockpiling, currently at 1,850 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 250 yuan per ton. Northern mines have reduced production, and there is still room for further decline in zinc concentrate processing fees. In November, China's zinc ingot production decreased by 22,000 tons month - on - month to 595,200 tons. Consumption has entered the off - season, and downstream buyers are making purchases based on rigid demand. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 55,375 tons, further alleviating the risk of a soft squeeze. China's social inventory of zinc ingots has slightly decreased to 1.403 million tons on a month - on - month basis. Zinc's short - term supply - demand is weak, and inventories continue to decline during the off - season. Attention should be paid to the impact of northern winter environmental inspections on the smelting end [8]. Aluminum - Core view: Rebound. It's recommended to take short - term profits on SHFE aluminum and then wait and see, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventories. The main operating range is [21,500 - 22,500] yuan per ton [1]. - Industry logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year has been further strengthened. Industrially, as the dry season approaches in southwestern China, the costs of aluminum enterprises with a high proportion of hydropower are expected to increase. In December, the latest domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 596,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared to last week; the inventory of aluminum rods in major domestic consumption areas is 128,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to last week. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.3%, and the consumption in the automotive terminal field is fair. For alumina, the shipment of bauxite from Guinea overseas has returned to normal and is expected to continue to increase. Bauxite mines in northern China have gradually resumed production, and the absolute inventory of bauxite remains at a high level. Currently, there are frequent news of maintenance of alumina enterprises in the north, but no large - scale alumina production cuts have been heard. In the short - term, the oversupply pattern in the alumina market continues, and attention should be paid to changes in the overseas bauxite end [12]. Nickel - Core view: Rebound. It's recommended to take profits on nickel and stainless steel at low prices and then wait and see, paying attention to the changes in downstream stainless - steel inventories. The main operating range of nickel is [117,000 - 119,000] yuan per ton [1]. - Industry logic: For nickel, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year has been further strengthened. Industrially, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to lower the nickel production target for 2026, and it is reported that some Indonesian smelters have plans to cut production. In December, the latest LME nickel inventory has climbed to 252,000 tons, and the domestic pure - nickel social inventory is about 52,000 tons. With the expectation of reduced refined - nickel production, the inventory - building speed may slow down. For stainless steel, the terminal consumption field has gradually entered the off - season. According to statistics, the total inventory of the two major stainless - steel markets in Wuxi and Foshan has slightly decreased to 940,000 tons in December, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28%. As stainless - steel prices have weakened significantly, the social inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing again, but there is still a large risk of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Currently, the stainless - steel market has entered the year - end consumption off - season, and downstream demand remains sluggish. Close attention should be paid to the impact of downstream terminal consumption on inventory changes [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Correction, then go long after stabilizing. The total inventory has been decreasing for 16 consecutive weeks. Recently, affected by the increase in the arrival of overseas spodumene and the expectation of domestic production resumption, the price will correct. Wait for the opportunity to go long after stabilization [1]. - Industry logic: The total inventory has been declining for 16 consecutive weeks. Upstream inventories have further decreased, downstream has actively reduced inventories to a reasonable range, and there has been obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. As prices have risen rapidly, the production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and there is still room for an increase in the operating rate. Terminal demand remains strong, and the optimistic expectation for energy storage still exists. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate has reached a new high. Overall, lithium carbonate inventories continue to decline, and there is no significant room for price drops. Recently, affected by the increase in the arrival of overseas spodumene and the expectation of domestic production resumption, the price will correct, and wait for the opportunity to go long after stabilization [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints - LME copper warrant cancellation triggers the expectation of a soft squeeze, there is a shortage of copper inventory in non - US regions. With the Fed likely to cut interest rates in December and China's Politburo meeting approaching, copper has hit a record high. It is recommended to move the stop - profit for long positions and try to go long on dips. In the long term, copper is still favored [6]. - In the short term, copper has refreshed its historical high again, with increased high - level volatility. Long - position holders have accumulated large profits. It is advisable to gradually move the stop - profit, avoid blindly chasing the high, and beware of the risk of a high - level pullback after the macro positive factors are exhausted. For industrial selling hedging, the hedging ratio should be flexibly reduced, and inventory should be sold off quickly. For industrial buying hedging, positions should be built on dips according to production orders. In the long - term, due to copper being an important strategic resource in the China - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, with the tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand, copper is still promising. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is 【88000, 98000】 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 【11000, 12000】 US dollars/ton [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoint Summary - The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates in December, the US dollar is weakening, and copper prices are soaring. The US economic data shows signs of weakness, such as the decline in the ISM manufacturing PMI, the reduction in private - sector employment in the ADP data, and the cooling of the labor market. The Fed's interest - rate cut probability is high, and the dollar index has declined [8][10]. - The pre - heating of the December Politburo meeting in China has increased market risk appetite. The macro - economy shows signs of improvement in foreign demand, moderate recovery in domestic demand, and stable policy expectations. The manufacturing PMI has slightly increased, and price indicators have shown a mild recovery. Policy support has continued, and the market is looking forward to the Politburo meeting's economic tone for the next year [11][13]. - In the long run, copper is positively correlated with the Nasdaq index, gold, and crude oil, and negatively correlated with US Treasury yields. In 2025, the gold - copper ratio has been rising, and copper still has room for a supplementary increase [16]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis US Macroeconomy - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, lower than the previous value and the expected value, and has been below the 50 boom - bust line for nine consecutive months. The ADP "small non - farm" data in December showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023. The labor market has cooled, with the unemployment rate of 20 - 24 - year - old college graduates rising to 8.5%. The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is considered "almost certain", and the probability of cumulative interest - rate cuts in January 2026 is 64%. The dollar index fell 0.38% on a weekly basis as of December 4 [10]. Chinese Macroeconomy - China's macro - economy in December showed a trend of improving foreign demand, moderate domestic - demand recovery, and stable policy expectations. The manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.2%, and the new export - order index rebounded by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%. The CPI turned positive year - on - year in October, the core CPI rose to 1.2%, and the PPI turned positive month - on - month. Fiscal and industrial policies continued to be strong, and the market's risk appetite increased. The market is looking forward to the Politburo meeting in mid - December to set the economic tone for the next year [13]. 3. Supply - and - Demand Analysis Supply - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In 2025, many large - scale copper mines globally had unexpected production cuts and shutdowns. The global copper concentrate supply is in a continuous tight situation. The CSPT group reached a consensus on reducing the production load of copper mines, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing vicious competition. The copper concentrate TC has been running at a low level, with the latest at - 42.7 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decline of 0.55 US dollars/ton. The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in 2026 [46][55]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In November, the domestic copper - smelting start - up rate was 82.29%, and the electrolytic copper output increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month to 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The import of refined copper in October decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in the domestic market is tight, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has widened to 5,510 yuan/ton as of December 5, the highest since May 2024 [47]. Demand - **Positive Factors**: Green copper demand is booming, with the average copper consumption in renewable energy systems being 8 - 12 times that of traditional power - generation systems. In October, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 19.3% year - on - year. The year - end domestic power - grid bidding work is actively carried out, and power investment maintains resilience. The market expects the US power demand to grow by 60% in 2026, which will stimulate overseas copper demand [88]. - **Negative Factors**: High copper prices have a significant inhibitory effect on demand. The consumption has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of mid - and downstream enterprises have declined. The real - estate industry at the terminal is still in a difficult situation. The COMEX copper inventory has accumulated to a high level, forming a potential "inventory dam" [25]. 4. Summary and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in December is nearly 90%, and the market expects continuous monetary easing in 2026. China's manufacturing PMI has improved, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting, the market's expectation of policy stimulus has increased. The monetary policies of China and the US may resonate, releasing more market liquidity. Copper's strategic value and price center will rise steadily [109]. - **Fundamentals**: The global copper - concentrate supply remains tight, and the CSPT group's anti - involution measures have been implemented. The international refined - copper market is expected to have a supply gap in 2026. The domestic electrolytic copper output in November was slightly higher than expected, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has widened [110]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory and SHFE copper inventory have decreased, while LME copper inventory is at a certain level, and COMEX copper inventory has accumulated. The large increase in LME copper warrant cancellations has triggered concerns about a soft squeeze in non - US copper inventory. The US may introduce copper - import trade - restriction measures, and the US has become a "black hole" for global copper inventory [111]. - **Terminal Demand**: Although the traditional real - estate and infrastructure sectors are weak, the demand for copper in green fields such as photovoltaics, wind power, and electric vehicles is strong, providing structural support. The US power - grid reconstruction and the construction of data - centers are expected to stimulate overseas copper demand [111]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to move the stop - profit for long positions and avoid chasing the high. Industrial selling - hedging should reduce the hedging ratio, and industrial buying - hedging should build positions on dips. In the long term, copper is still favored. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is 【88000, 98000】 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 【11000, 12000】 US dollars/ton [112].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹产量及表需环比环比下降，库存正常去化。杭州地区库存绝对水平虽仍较高，但已 | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 降幅已正常。螺纹自身基本面相对平衡。铁水产量环比再降，12 | 月钢厂检修较多，对 | | ★ | 建筑钢材影响较大。钢材整体缺少强驱动，或维持区间震荡反复。 | | | | | 热卷 | 热卷产量及表需均小幅下降，库存变化不大，维持近年来同期最高水平，去库不畅。现 | 谨慎看空 | ★ | 货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动，热卷表现或继续弱于螺纹。 | | 铁矿石 | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续钢厂检修陆续增加，铁水有继续减量预期，关注其落地 | 空单持有 | ★ | 情况。钢厂增库，港口增库。外矿发货增加，减产主导下，矿价承压。 | | 原料煤价格下跌后焦企利润明显改善，生产积极性增加，整体库存压力尚可，后续提降 | 焦炭 | 看空 | 预期进一步增强。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，12 | 月钢厂检修较多。自身供需结 | | ★★ | 构偏宽松，预计短期跟随焦煤弱势运行。 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton [1] - **Bearish Dominance**: Red dates, live pigs [1] - **Range - bound**: Rapeseed oil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillations. Although the current supply is sufficient, the expected decrease in weekly crushing volume may relieve supply pressure. Wait for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) December report and follow the progress of South American soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillations. The spot market is inactive, but due to weather premium speculation on the soybean meal side and low rapeseed import expectations, the far - month contracts are expected to be bullish. Pay attention to the USDA December report and China - Canada trade progress [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to stop falling in stages. Although there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November in Malaysia, factors such as floods in Southeast Asia and increased Indian purchases have boosted market sentiment. Be cautious when chasing long at high levels and look for opportunities to go long on dips after adjustments [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish oscillations. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased but is still higher than the five - year average. Follow the South American soybean weather and treat it as a range - bound market this week [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Range - bound. The fundamentals are strong, but the spot trading is sluggish. It is advisable to focus on far - month contracts when going long. Pay attention to the import situation of Australian and Russian rapeseed and rapeseed oil [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. Globally, the market is more focused on weather. Domestically, new cotton sales are progressing quickly, and the cost support is strengthening. However, there are still pressures from high inventory and hedging. Consider going long on dips and look for medium - to - long - term recovery opportunities [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Bearish oscillations. With the peak of new product listings and the arrival of the consumption season, the market is bearish overall. However, since most of the price premiums from speculation on production cuts have been squeezed out, avoid excessive short - selling and maintain short - term observation [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Bearish oscillations. In December, the supply pressure is high, and it is difficult to support the spot price. For the near - month 01 contract, focus on short - selling opportunities. The 03 contract is also bearish, and the short - term long - buying opportunities for 09 and 11 contracts can be considered after the supply pressure is released [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.10 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons, a 2.65% increase from last week; and the soybean meal inventory was 120.32 million tons, a 4.49% increase from last week [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3111.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05% [2]. - **Spread**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons, both unchanged from last week [6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2474.74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% [4]. - **Spread**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8770 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20% from the previous day; the national average price was 8798 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% [7]. - **Export**: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased compared with the previous month [8]. Cotton - **Global Situation**: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion, but precipitation in late November was unfavorable for the harvest. In India, new cotton arrivals are stable, but rainfall in late November affected MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the 2026 new cotton planting has started in non - main producing areas [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is basically completed, and the inspection volume exceeds 474 million tons. The sales progress is fast, and the cost of new - season lint is locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. The national commercial inventory has increased to 446 million tons [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15022 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% [9]. Red Dates - **Supply**: The acquisition in some areas is completed, and the acquisition progress in other areas is about 80%. The acquisition price is showing a weak trend [14]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 13910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3062 tons, but lower than the same period last year [14]. - **Price**: The futures prices of contracts such as CJ2601 and CJ2603 have increased to varying degrees, while most spot prices remain stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises has increased by 3.2%. The overall supply pressure is high, but the long - term supply may decrease as the number of fertile sows has decreased [16][17]. - **Demand**: The demand has marginally improved, with an increase in pork sales, but the slaughter profit has decreased [15][17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (Ih2601) remained unchanged at 11385 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of live pigs was 11540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [15].

中辉期货双焦周报 供需双减，短期承压 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/12/05 双焦观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色商品以移仓换月为主，煤焦价格低位反弹后继续走弱，螺矿表现相对坚挺。从供需 层面来看，国内煤炭产量环比再降，部分煤矿因年度生产任务即将完成开始自行减产。下游方面，铁水产量环 比再降，与近两年同期水平相当。12月钢厂检修较多，后续铁水仍有一定下降空间。 【后市展望】：焦煤当前处于供需双减阶段，12月煤矿除受安检等外部因素影响外，仍存在自主减产的驱动， 预计短期供应继续维持偏低水平，而需求仍要关注后续铁水的降幅。本周焦煤主力合约切换至2605合约，考 虑到当前价格再次运行至区间下沿，同时国内重要会议即将来临，因此短期不宜过分沽空。策略上前期高价空 单可继续持有，新单维持观望姿态。 【风险与关注】：宏观情绪、国内煤矿安全检查、能源保供、焦炭提降、铁水产量下行等。 2 • 近期口岸通关量持续回升，截至12月4日，三大口岸精煤库存合计389.7万吨，周环比增加0.4万吨。目前蒙 5原煤 ...

Market Overview - This week, the black sector entered the contract roll - over period. The main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and coking coal were switched to the May contracts. The market showed mixed trends. The main contract of rebar rose 1.3% this week, hot - rolled coil rose 1%, iron ore fell 1%, coke rose 0.7%, and coking coal fell 1% [2]. - In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil both decreased, but their inventory performances were significantly different. Rebar destocking was normal, while hot - rolled coil destocking remained difficult and faced certain pressure. Pig iron output continued to decline. In December, many steel mills carried out maintenance and shutdowns, which had a greater impact on construction steel. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, and the driving force for basis repair was limited. Next week, the economic work conference will be held, and the content of the conference should be noted [2]. Steel Production Monthly Data (October 2025) | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel Products | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] Weekly Data (December 5, 2025) | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 189310 | - 16770 | - 3% | 216980 | - 10960 | - 6% | 503800 | - 27670 | 13.84% | | Wire Rod | 80010 | - 2160 | - 7% | 83000 | - 7610 | - 8% | 101630 | - 2810 | 15% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 314310 | - 4700 | 1% | 314860 | - 5360 | 1% | 400350 | - 550 | 31% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 85520 | 760 | 1.73% | 87480 | 1380 | 0.96% | 167680 | - 1960 | 18.69% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 159820 | - 3890 | 4.53% | 162030 | - 1280 | 4.39% | 192120 | - 2230 | 5.41% | | Total | 828950 | - 26760 | - 0.13% | 864000 | - 24000 | - 1.15% | 1366000 | - 35220 | 17.71% | [5] Steel Production Profit (December 4, 2025) | Region | Rebar - Blast Furnace Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Valley Electricity Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Flat Electricity Change | Hot - Rolled Coil - Blast Furnace Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 112, 5 | 20, 0 | - 101, 0 | 114, 10 | | North China | 74, - 5 | 33, 0 | - 51, 0 | 19, 5 | | Central China | 175, 0 | 186, 5 | 55, 5 | 65, - 10 | [20] Steel Demand Building Materials Consumption - The cumulative year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 8%, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 17% [27]. - The marginal improvement of cement outbound volume was observed. Currently, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 25%. The concrete shipment volume increased month - on - month, and the absolute level was comparable to the same period last year. Currently, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 8% [30]. Coil Consumption - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year. After October, the domestic - foreign price difference declined again [36]. Steel Inventory Rebar Inventory - The rebar basis remained stable this week with limited fluctuations. After November, the basis usually weakens. In the past, the basis convergence stage was usually characterized by the upward oscillation of the futures market. Currently, the rebar output was lower than the same period last year. It was expected that the inventory would enter the normal destocking stage later, the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and the basis was expected to remain stable [50]. Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable but showed a weakening trend. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory remained stable, and the inventory in East China decreased slightly. The recent difficult destocking of hot - rolled coil exerted certain pressure on the spot market, leading to the weakening of the basis [54]. Spread Analysis - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar slightly declined from near the flat - water level this week. The recent decline in rebar inventory and the decrease in the year - on - year inventory growth rate were beneficial for the spread to go positive. After the main contract roll - over of rebar was completed, the inventory in East China was still high, and the 1 - 5 spread might have some room to weaken [60]. - The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil slightly weakened and re - entered the contango structure. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the spread [64]. Strategy Suggestion - Currently, steel lacks obvious market - driving factors. After entering the off - season of demand, macro - events and expectations are usually important sources of market logic. However, the current policy environment is rather calm and difficult to boost the market. From the fundamental perspective, apart from the production cuts and restrictions of steel mills in December, there is also a lack of upward - driving factors. The high inventory of hot - rolled coil creates a downward - driving force, but the overall demand for coils is not bad. Therefore, the current contradictions are limited, and the market lacks themes for directional trading, and may continue to fluctuate within a range. This week, steel prices rose to near the previous high, and the room for further upward movement may be rather limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of decline [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, asphalt [2][4][7] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, urea, natural gas [4][7] - **Buy on Dips after Correction**: Methanol [4] - **Bearish Continued**: L, PP, glass, soda ash [2][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oil and Gas Products**: The market is mainly affected by supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical factors, and cost changes. For example, crude oil is pressured by oversupply in the off - season, while natural gas is supported by increased demand in the consumption season [2][4][7] - **Chemical Products**: Supply and demand, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors. For instance, PTA has improved fundamentals due to reduced supply and good demand, while PVC is limited by high inventory and weak fundamentals but supported by low valuations [4][23][31] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, with oversupply in the off - season pressuring oil prices [2] - **Logic**: Geopolitical events in Ukraine and South America provide short - term support, but OPEC+ maintains production, and global and US inventories are rising [12][13] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 445 - 455 yuan/barrel for SC [14] LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, following the downward trend of the cost - end oil price [2] - **Logic**: The cost is affected by oil prices, downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but supply is increasing, and inventory is decreasing [18] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton for PG [19] L - **Core View**: Bearish continued, with weakening cost support [2] - **Logic**: Cost support is insufficient, supply is abundant, and demand is weak after the peak season [23] - **Strategy**: Exit short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton [23] PP - **Core View**: Bearish continued, with attention to the sustainability of parking [2] - **Logic**: Supply pressure is relieved by increased parking, but demand is weak, and oil prices may continue to fall [27] - **Strategy**: Short - term strength, but wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Consider going long on PP processing fees 01. Focus on the range of 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton for PP and 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton for propylene [27] PVC - **Core View**: Bearish with short - term rebound, supported by low valuations [2] - **Logic**: High inventory limits the upside, but low valuations limit the downside. Pay attention to inventory changes and capital movements [31] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips based on capital dynamics in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the long term. Focus on the range of 4500 - 4700 yuan/ton [31] PTA - **Core View**: Cautiously bullish, with improved supply - demand and low valuations [4] - **Logic**: Supply pressure is relieved by large - scale device maintenance, demand is relatively good, and the short - term supply - demand is tight [33] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips. Focus on the range of 4680 - 4735 yuan/ton [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, with expected improvement in supply but inventory accumulation [4] - **Logic**: Domestic coal - based device start - up increases, but later integrated device maintenance will relieve supply pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [36] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Focus on the range of 3760 - 3830 yuan/ton [37] Methanol - **Core View**: Buy on dips after correction, with attention to the 05 contract [4] - **Logic**: Port inventory is decreasing, but supply pressure still exists. Demand is improving, and coal costs provide support at the end of the year [40] - **Strategy**: The rebound of the 01 contract may be limited. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the range of 2085 - 2121 yuan/ton [43] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bullish, with expected improvement in supply - demand [4] - **Logic**: Supply pressure will be relieved in mid - December, demand is mixed with strong exports, and inventory is still at a high level [45] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips with a light position. Focus on the range of 1675 - 1705 yuan/ton [46] Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously bullish, with rising prices in the consumption season [7] - **Logic**: The EU increases LNG purchases from the US, and demand increases in the consumption season [50] - **Strategy**: Gas prices are likely to rise. Focus on the range of 4.980 - 5.185 dollars/million British thermal units [51] Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, with a downward trend in the off - season [7] - **Logic**: It is affected by oil prices, with sufficient supply and weak demand in the off - season [55] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 2900 - 3000 yuan/ton [56] Glass - **Core View**: Bearish continued, with the spot price falling and the market returning to a bearish trend [7] - **Logic**: Daily melting volume is decreasing, demand is weak due to the real - estate situation [60] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to cold - repair implementation in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of 1020 - 1070 yuan/ton [60] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish continued, with increasing warehouse receipts [7] - **Logic**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, supply is abundant, and demand is weak due to glass cold - repair [64] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of 1150 - 1200 yuan/ton [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound in the short - term, bearish on rebounds in the medium - and long - term [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Bearish on rebounds [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Short on rallies [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: U.S. data is mixed, gold prices fluctuate at high levels, and long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. Silver has long - term positive factors, but short - term chasing is not recommended [1][2][3] - Copper: The global copper concentrate supply is tight, and there are concerns about overseas short squeezes. After reaching historical highs, long positions should take profits, and copper is still bullish in the medium - and long - term [1][5][6] - Zinc: The overall supply and demand are weak, with inventory reduction in the off - season. It may face pressure again after reaching the 23,000 mark, and a bearish view on rebounds is maintained in the medium - and long - term [1][7][9] - Aluminum: The downstream start - up is okay, and the aluminum price continues to rebound. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [1][10][12] - Nickel: The inventory remains at a high level, and the nickel price rebounds under pressure. The stainless - steel market has entered the off - season [1][14][16] - Lithium carbonate: The total inventory has been declining for 16 weeks, and a long position can be taken after a sufficient correction [1][18][20] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Fed rate - cut expectations are volatile, and the Russia - Ukraine peace process has new developments. Gold fluctuates at high levels and awaits the next Fed meeting [2] - **Basic Logic**: U.S. employment is in a "no - firing, no - hiring" mode, the probability of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike increases, and the Russia - Ukraine war mediation has advanced [2] - **Trading Logic**: Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. For silver, the short - term sentiment may decline after the delivery squeeze eases [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 935 and silver at 12,600. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held, but short - term operations should be cautious [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates at high levels and tests the support at the 90,000 mark [5] - **Industrial Logic**: The global copper concentrate supply is tight, the CSPT group has reached a consensus on reducing production capacity, and the LME copper cancelled warrants have increased sharply. The non - U.S. copper inventory is gradually running out [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After reaching historical highs, long positions should take profits and wait for a correction to enter the market. In the medium - and long - term, copper is still bullish. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper at [89,000, 92,000] yuan/ton and LME copper at [11,000, 12,000] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc continues to rebound [7] - **Industrial Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee continues to decline, the consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is reduced in the off - season [7][8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, long positions should gradually take profits. In the medium - and long - term, a bearish view on rebounds is maintained. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc at [22,800, 23,200] yuan/ton and LME zinc at [3,000, 3,100] dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price continues to rebound, and alumina continues its weak trend [10][11] - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's year - end rate cut is strengthened. The cost of aluminum enterprises in southwestern China may increase, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is reduced. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [10][12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After taking short - term profits, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of the aluminum ingot social inventory, and the main operating range is [21,500 - 22,500] [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounds under pressure, and the stainless - steel price is under pressure [14][15] - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's year - end rate cut is strengthened. Some Indonesian smelters plan to cut production, but the inventory remains at a high level. The stainless - steel market has entered the off - season [14][16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After taking profits at low prices, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the change in the stainless - steel inventory, and the main operating range of nickel is [116,000 - 119,000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 opens low and moves low, with the decline narrowing at the end of the session [18][19] - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks, and the terminal demand remains strong. There is no room for a sharp decline in prices, and a long position can be taken after a sufficient correction [18][20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take a long position at low prices in the range of [93,000 - 96,000] [21]

资料来源：iFinD，mysteel，中辉期货 【品种观点】 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 螺纹产量及表需环比环比下降，库存正常去化。杭州地区库存绝对水平虽仍较高，但已 降幅已正常。螺纹自身基本面相对平衡。铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多，对 | | ★ | | 建筑钢材影响较大。钢材整体缺少强驱动，或维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需均小幅下降，库存变化不大，维持近年来同期最高水平，去库不畅。现 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动，热卷表现或继续弱于螺纹。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续钢厂检修陆续增加，铁水有继续减量预期，关注其落地 | | ★ | 空单持有 | 情况。钢厂增库，港口增库。外矿发货增加，减产主导下，矿价承压。 | | | | 原料煤价格下跌后焦企利润明显改善，生产积极性增加，整体库存压力尚可，后续提降 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 预期进一步增强。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多。自身供需结 | | ★ | | 构偏 ...