Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term long position [1] - Silver: Long - term long position [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment [1] Core Views - For gold, the long - term support logic remains unchanged due to geopolitical order reshaping and central bank purchases, and short - term entry opportunities exist. For silver, long - term global policy stimulates demand with a continuous supply - demand gap. Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to copper concentrate shortages and green copper demand. Zinc has limited up - and - down space in the short - term and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long - term. Lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure in the short - term. Aluminum prices are relatively strong in the short - term, while lithium carbonate prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [1]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: After risk events landed, the market sentiment was basically released, and gold and silver fluctuated narrowly. Short - term attention should be paid to US data and government shutdown [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The new gold tax policy affects different usage and user groups. The US government shutdown is in a stalemate, which affects Fed policies and market expectations. In the long - term, gold benefits from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Both gold and silver have stopped falling in the short - term. Medium - and short - term entry can be considered, with strong support at 910 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper fluctuated at high levels [7]. - **Industry Logic**: Copper concentrate shortages continue as major mining companies lower production expectations. There is an expected decline in domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter. The domestic smelting industry calls for anti - involution and possible production cuts. Downstream demand shows a pattern of high - price aversion and low - price purchasing [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try long positions on dips near the 84500 - 85500 range. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging can use options for protection, and strict risk control is required. The short - term focus ranges are [84500, 88500] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [10500, 11200] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc fluctuated narrowly [10]. - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the processing fee has dropped due to smelter winter stockpiling. Refined zinc enterprise profits are in a small - scale loss. Zinc ingot production is expected to increase, and consumption is entering the off - season. The overseas LME zinc inventory soft - squeeze risk has eased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc lacks a clear one - sided driving force in the short - term, with limited up - and - down space. In the long - term, it is a short - side allocation in the sector. The focus ranges are [22200, 22800] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2980, 3080] dollars/ton for London zinc [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are cautiously optimistic, while alumina shows a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cuts continue. Domestic production capacity is high, and terminal consumption is transitioning from peak season to off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are affected by the rainy season, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction and possible production cuts [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operating rates. The main operating range is [21000 - 21800] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices are falling back [17]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts continue. Overseas nickel production policies are adjusted, and domestic and overseas nickel inventories are accumulating. The stainless steel market shows a supply - and - demand weak situation, and terminal demand is weakening [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a significant reduction in positions and an enlarged decline at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, with continuous inventory reduction for 11 weeks and an expanding reduction range. Although supply is still growing, there are production declines in some regions. Terminal demand is strong, but the rumored resumption of production has a negative impact on the market [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see until the market stabilizes in the range of [80000 - 82000] [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferro - Manganese Silicon**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicon Iron**: Cautiously bearish [1] Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the macro situation has been settled, and the contradictions are limited. Rebar shows a supply - demand double - weak off - season characteristic, and hot - rolled coil inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years. Both have weak driving forces, with rebar potentially weakening in the short - term and hot - rolled coil possibly having a short - term correction [3][4][5] - For iron ore, due to environmental control and losses in some steel mills, iron - making water production has decreased. The static fundamentals are neutral to bullish, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8] - For coke, the second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the third round is on the way. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price remains strong [11] - For coking coal, the supply may be tightened in the future, and the demand has weakened marginally. However, the supply - demand pattern is still relatively healthy, and the price remains strong [14] - For ferro - manganese silicon and silicon iron, the supply is at a high level, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased. They are recommended to be treated bearishly [18][19] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Variety Views - Rebar: Weekly production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory continued to decline, and it conforms to the off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The decline in iron - making water production weakens the support for raw materials. The Sino - US meeting ended with the implementation of tariff mitigation measures [4] - Hot - rolled coil: Both apparent demand and production increased, and the inventory decreased slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years [4] Disk Operation Suggestions - Rebar: The upward and downward driving forces are weak. It will maintain range - bound operation in the medium - term and may face short - term weakness [5] - Hot - rolled coil: The decrease in iron - making water production weakens the demand support for raw materials. It will operate in a range in the medium - term and may have a short - term correction [5] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different degrees of decline; spot prices also had fluctuations; basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads all had corresponding changes [2] Iron Ore Variety Views - This week, iron - making water production decreased significantly due to environmental control in Tangshan and loss - based maintenance in some steel mills. Steel mills reduced inventory, and ports accumulated inventory. There is an expectation that foreign ore shipments will decline from the high level, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bullish [8] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [9] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of iron ore decreased, and spot prices also declined. There were changes in spreads, basis, and other data [6] Coke Variety Views - The second round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, and the third round is coming. The profit of coke enterprises has improved slightly but is still mostly in a loss state. The steel mill inventory is at a medium - low level. Although there is maintenance in Tangshan due to environmental protection, the maintenance time is short. The iron - making water production has declined from the high level, but the short - term shipment of coke enterprises is good, and some steel mills are still replenishing inventory [11] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [12] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of coke declined, and there were corresponding changes in basis, spreads, and other data. In terms of spot prices, there was no change, and there were also fluctuations in weekly data such as production, inventory, and profit [10] Coking Coal Variety Views - Coal mine production and operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month. The supply - side inspection of over - production in November may be strengthened, and the uncertainty of the political situation in Mongolia continues to increase, with the expectation of tightened imports in the future. The iron - making water production has decreased significantly, and the demand has weakened marginally. The current supply - demand pattern is still relatively healthy [14] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [15] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of coking coal declined, and there were changes in basis, spreads, etc. Spot prices remained unchanged, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and operating rate also had corresponding fluctuations [13] Iron Alloys Variety Views - Manganese silicon: The supply in the production area is still at a high level in the same period, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has continued to increase compared with the previous period [18] - Silicon iron: The supply in the production area remains at a high level, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased significantly compared with the previous period. Attention should be paid to the situation of re - warehousing after the cancellation of warehouse receipts [18] Disk Operation Suggestions - Manganese silicon: The price of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price. Cautiously bearish [19] - Silicon iron: The fundamentals of silicon iron have become loose, and there is upward pressure on short - term coal prices. Bearish treatment [19] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron declined, and spot prices also had fluctuations. There were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and operating rate [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Oscillation**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Short - term Decline**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Short - term Adjustment**: Soybean Oil [1] - **Short - term Callback**: Cotton [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Red Dates [1] - **Alert to Rebound**: Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term oscillation. Pay attention to Sino - US trade and Brazilian weather. Current tariffs support domestic soybean meal cost and are negative for US soybeans [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term oscillation. Trade policies and high inventory lead to mixed factors. Follow soybean meal trends and focus on Sino - Canadian trade [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. Enter a supply - demand weakening phase, with expected inventory accumulation in October and November. Hold existing short positions cautiously [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term adjustment. Lack of bullish support from US soybeans and biodiesel policies. High domestic inventory. Follow palm oil trends and be cautious about short - selling [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term decline. Low oil mill operating rates, but lack of bullish drivers in the oil market. Pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade [1]. - **Cotton**: Short - term callback. Global supply pressure, but Indian MSP provides some support. Domestic new cotton harvest is almost complete, with increasing inventory and weak demand [1][11]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. Loose fundamentals expected. Reduce short positions as the price approaches the cost. Monitor post - harvest pricing [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Alert to rebound. Supply pressure in Q4, but some second - fattening opportunities. Focus on market supply - demand changes and consider short - selling on rebounds and arbitrage opportunities [1][17]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of October 24, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased by 15.3 tons week - on - week. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory decreased by 17.41 tons, while bean meal inventory increased by 7.84 tons. Feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days increased slightly [3]. - **Market Situation**: Spot prices increased, but procurement sentiment was weak. Supply remained loose, and the basis had limited upside [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of October 24, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was flat, rapeseed meal inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts increased. International rapeseed production is expected to rise [6]. - **Market Situation**: Domestic rapeseed meal is in a destocking phase, but demand is seasonally weak. It follows soybean meal trends due to lack of new drivers [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory**: As of October 24, 2025, national commercial inventory increased by 3.14 tons week - on - week. Malaysian production and export data vary, but inventory is expected to accumulate [7][8]. - **Market Situation**: Enter a supply - demand weakening phase, with Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 policy negatively affecting prices [1][8]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: US new cotton is being harvested, and Indian MSP implementation is delayed. Domestic new cotton harvest is almost complete, and commercial inventory is approaching the same - period level [9][10]. - **Market Situation**: Global supply pressure, but Indian MSP provides support. Domestic demand is weak, and the market has limited upward momentum [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Price and Inventory**: Expected large - scale harvest. Inventory increased as some merchants bought old - season dates. New jujube purchase prices are concentrated in a certain range [13]. - **Market Situation**: Loose fundamentals expected. The market is volatile, and short - term short positions should be reduced [14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price and Inventory**: As of relevant data, inventory increased slightly, and the average slaughter weight was stable. Supply is expected to increase in Q4 [15][16]. - **Market Situation**: Supply pressure is postponed to December. Demand is stabilizing. Be cautious about short - term rebounds and consider trading strategies and arbitrage opportunities [17].

Report Overview - Report Title: 20251031 Cotton Monthly Report: Pay Attention to the Opportunity of First Decline and Then Rise During the Pressure Transmission Period [1] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the increasing supply of cotton from the US and other countries in the Southern Hemisphere is putting pressure on the market. Although Brazil is accelerating its exports, the continuous implementation of India's MSP provides some support for international cotton prices. The ICE market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of [63, 67] [3]. - Domestically, new cotton is expected to be harvested in about a week. After a slight increase in imports, the commercial inventory has recovered to the same level as the previous period, and the pressure on spot circulation is gradually increasing. The price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded recently, raising the average cost of new-season machine-picked lint cotton. On the demand side, the volume and price of downstream demand are still weakening, the enterprise load is seasonally weakening, and enterprises maintain just-in-time replenishment under the condition of few industrial orders. Pay attention to the sales speed and price during the pressure transmission process of inland warehouses to measure the profitability of inland buyers and the relief of the hedging density of all new cotton. During this period, the futures market may show a "first decline and then rise" trend. In terms of strategy, there is some support due to a slight increase in hedging pressure, but there is significant resistance to upward movement under the weak industrial driving force. Pay attention to the opportunity of high selling and low buying in the range of [13300, 13800] [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Factors - **International Macro**: The results of the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced. The US will cancel the 10% so-called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% counter - tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US will also suspend the implementation of the 50% penetrative export control rule and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%. The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target level [3]. - **Domestic Macro**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Supply - **International Supply**: New cotton is being harvested. As of now, 530,000 tons of new cotton have been inspected. In November, precipitation in major cotton - growing areas in the US will decrease, which is conducive to harvesting. In India, the MSP is gradually being implemented in the northern and central cotton - growing areas, but due to heavy precipitation, the MSP - based procurement has started slowly, and the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 12,000 tons. As of mid - October, the listing volume of new cotton in Pakistan was 588,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [3]. - **Domestic Supply**: - The national new cotton picking is approaching the end, with a progress of 79.7%, and it is expected to reach about 90% next week. The delivery progress is 88.5%, 4.3% faster than the same period last year; the inspection volume of new cotton has reached 1.68 million tons; the sales progress is 10.5%, 5.8% faster than the same period last year. The average purchase price of national seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, rising from 6.16 yuan/kg in the middle of the month to 6.32 yuan/kg. The average price of new - season machine - picked lint cotton has increased to around 14,500 yuan/ton, and the cost range of machine - picked lint cotton during the harvest period is 14,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton [10]. - This week, the national commercial cotton inventory increased by 408,200 tons to 1.8416 million tons, 76,600 tons lower than the same period last year; the commercial inventory in Xinjiang increased by 297,400 tons to 944,400 tons, 16,600 tons higher than the same period last year; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces decreased by 27,500 tons to 170,200 tons, 58,200 tons lower than the same period last year. In terms of finished products, the inventory days of pure cotton yarn decreased by 0.23 days to 31.02 days, the inventory days of terminal grey cloth decreased by 1.07 days to 23.01 days, and the inventory days of polyester - cotton yarn in the factory decreased by 0.15 days to 27.81 days [12]. - In September 2025, China imported about 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 18.7%; from January to September 2025, China imported about 680,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.8%. In September 2025, China imported about 127,700 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 15.02%. From January to September, the total import volume of cotton yarn in China was about 1.0366 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.44% [16]. - There are few cotton warehouse receipts left in Xinjiang, and the effective forecast volume far exceeds that of the same period last year [17]. Inventory - The national cotton commercial inventory continues to rise, basically converging the previous year - on - year difference and approaching the same - period level. The inventory in Xinjiang has exceeded the same - period level, while the change in inland inventory is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the pressure of passive inventory replenishment in inland areas. The inventory of downstream finished products has decreased slightly, and the overall inventory level is still relatively neutral. Most of the Xinjiang warehouse receipts have flowed out, and the remaining warehouse receipts are concentrated in inland cotton - growing areas. The forecast volume of new - cotton warehouse receipts in Xinjiang exceeds that of the same period [3]. Demand - **International Demand**: In the US, clothing retail and wholesale sales continued to grow strongly in August, but consumer confidence declined slightly in September. In September, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports decreased seasonally but were still higher year - on - year. The consumer confidence index in the EU showed signs of stabilizing and recovering in September. In August, the growth rate of clothing import volume decreased significantly, and the import amount decreased, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in price [3]. - **Domestic Demand**: - This week, the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills decreased slightly. Due to the recent increase in cotton prices and the difficulty of downstream yarn price support, the immediate profits of representative yarns have declined to varying degrees. The cumulative difference in the overall industry profit has been expanding this year. As of September, the cumulative year - on - year profit has rebounded to - 18.5% [20]. - This week, the total cotton cloth sales volume in the Light Textile City increased slightly, and the 5 - day moving average of cotton cloth sales volume increased from 386,000 meters to 390,000 meters, 74,000 meters higher than the same period. In Keqiao, the fabric price index decreased by 0.16 to 110.79, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 1.45 to 110.98 [22]. - In September, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased by 1.57% to 44.29%, 12.29% lower than the same period and below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. In terms of demand, the new order PMI increased by 1.98% to 48.72%, 9.44% lower than the same period; the operating rate PMI increased by 4.07% to 41.03%, 17.13% lower than the same period. In terms of inventory, the cotton yarn inventory PMI increased by 7.5% to 56.41%, 3.79% higher than the same period; the cotton inventory increased by 1.75% to 41.3%, 3.79% higher than the same period [24]. - In September, the total retail sales of enterprises above the designated size in clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles reached 123.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, further increasing from the 3.1% year - on - year growth rate in August; from January to September, the cumulative total retail sales of enterprises above the designated size in clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [26]. - In September, the "rush - to - export" effect continued to decline, and the year - on - year performance further weakened. The export of textile and clothing continued to be under pressure, and the export unit prices of clothing and yarn showed a slight divergence, but the export situation was still serious both year - on - year and month - on - month [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply-demand drive for plastics is weak, and inventory reduction is difficult to sustain. In November, new production capacity from Guangxi Petrochemical will be released, and supply is expected to increase seasonally. Demand is insufficient compared to the growth rate, and it's hard to form a positive restocking cycle. Consider the long - term high - production cycle of plastics and the risk of a downward shift in the oil price center. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds due to improved macro sentiment or escalated geopolitical conflicts [4]. - The inventory pressure in the PP industry chain is at a high level, and cost support is insufficient. After the National Day, inventory accumulation in the industry chain exceeded expectations, and recent inventory reduction has been slow. In November, the supply pattern will remain loose, and the seasonal peak demand effect is gradually fading. The profit still has room to compress [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Plastics**: This month, plastics opened low and trended lower, with three consecutive negative monthly lines. The price fluctuated between 6830 and 7145, with an amplitude of 315 points [3][13]. - **PP**: This month, PP also opened low and trended lower, with three consecutive negative monthly lines. The price fluctuated between 6530 and 6805, with an amplitude of 275 points [7][16]. 3.2 Valuation - For plastics, the basis, monthly spread are weakly running, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level compared to the same period. LLDPE weighted oil gross profit is neutral year - on - year, and the weighted gross profit is at a neutral position in the same period [17][24][26]. - For PP, the profit is moderately high, and the spot price has fallen below the 6000 mark, with insufficient cost support [32][33]. 3.3 Supply - In November, the PE start - up rate has a seasonal upward trend, while the PP start - up rate may remain stable due to insufficient maintenance plans [36][38]. 3.4 Demand - In November, the downstream start - up rate of PE may weaken seasonally, but the start - up rate of agricultural film is seasonally rising. The downstream start - up rate of PP may remain stable [40][42][43]. - From January to September 2025, the apparent consumption of PE was 3358 million tons (cumulative year - on - year +11%), and that of PP was 2981 million tons (year - on - year +13%, with a +12% increase in September) [41][45]. 3.5 Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the import volume was 1000 million tons (year - on - year - 1.8%). In September, the import volume was 102 million tons (year - on - year - 10%, month - on - month +8%). The expected export volumes in October and November are 110 and 116 million tons respectively. - From January to September 2025, the export volume was 83 million tons (year - on - year +30%). In September, the export volume was 10 million tons (year - on - year +64%, month - on - month - 14%). The expected export volumes in October and November are 9.5 and 9.4 million tons respectively. - The import and export of PP are basically balanced, and the current export profit margin has narrowed [48][51][52]. 3.6 Inventory - PE enterprise inventory has significantly decreased, while PP enterprise inventory remains at a high level compared to the same period. Social inventory is being reduced slowly, and the overall inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The downstream raw material inventory has reached a high level compared to the same period [56][58][60]. 3.7 Strategy - **Plastics**: Short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6800 - 7100] for L2601. Hold the long LP01 arbitrage. Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time due to the low basis [6]. - **PP**: Short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6450 - 6750] for PP2601. Short MTO (01) at high prices. Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time due to the low basis [10]. 3.8 Production Capacity Plan - In 2025, the planned PE production capacity is 613 million tons (year - on - year +17%), with 463 million tons already put into production from January to October, and 120 million tons remaining to be put into production. The planned PP production capacity is 511 million tons (year - on - year +11%), with 456 million tons already put into production from January to October, and 45 million tons remaining to be put into production. - In 2026, the industry is still in a high - production cycle. The probability of PP device delays is relatively high, and opportunities to short the LP05 spread can be considered [35].

Report Title - 202501031 Zhonghui Futures Monthly Report on Live Pigs: Limited Acceleration in Capacity Reduction, Beware of Rebound Risks in Peak Season [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - and medium - term trading follows fundamental logic, with the futures market showing signs of bottoming. There may be a certain warming opportunity in the peak season due to improved demand and structural support from large pigs, but the rebound height in Q4 is expected to be limited. The far - month contracts can be strategically bullish in the long - term, subject to policy influence. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts, beware of the rebound risk of the peak - season 01 contract after bottom - probing, and also consider shorting opportunities for the off - season 03 contract. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Performance - **Live Pig Spot Prices**: This week, the national live pig spot price rebounded to 12.54 yuan/kg, with prices in other provinces also rebounding to varying degrees. For example, the price in Henan rebounded to 12.74 yuan/kg, in Jiangsu to 12.86 yuan/kg, in Hunan to 12.1 yuan/kg, in Chongqing it remained stable at 13.25 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan it rebounded to 12.2 yuan/kg [3][16]. - **Sow Prices**: The average price of culled sows rebounded slightly, up 0.68 yuan to 8.97 yuan/kg. The average price of二元sows decreased by 14.28 yuan/head to 1529.52 yuan/head. Due to weak demand from farmers, the price of二元sows is expected to continue its weak performance [3][18]. - **Piglet Prices**: The national 7kg piglet出栏price increased by 17.62 yuan to 182.86 yuan/head, and the 15kg piglet price increased by 20 yuan to 260.8 yuan/kg. It is speculated that small - scale farmers are entering the market by purchasing piglets [3][20]. 2. Logic and Outlook - **Price Movement Logic**: Before mid - October, due to the loose supply - demand pattern, both the futures and spot prices of live pigs declined. After the price reached a new low in the 10 - yuan range, farmers' willingness to hold prices increased. The widening of the standard - fat price difference in North and Northeast China led to more farmers delaying sales and second - fattening, supporting a staged price rebound. However, the short - selling pressure on the futures market remains significant [4]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In the short term, the supply pressure remains high. The planned出栏of large - scale farms has increased, the出栏weight is relatively high, and the inventory structure supports high supply pressure in Q4. Although the inventory of large pigs supports the peak season to some extent, the subsequent pressure from second - fattening is obvious. The reduction of the breeding sow inventory is not significantly accelerating, and the improvement in production efficiency offsets some of the reduction pressure [4]. - **Demand**: Recently, demand has shown a stable trend, with the slaughter rate remaining stable and the decline in the fresh - meat sales rate slowing down. It is expected that demand will improve with the cooling weather, resulting in a pattern of both supply and demand increasing [4]. - **Cost - Profit**: The short - term divergence between feed and live pig prices has reduced farmers' losses, which is not conducive to accelerating capacity reduction. Further losses are needed to drive the reduction of breeding sow inventory [4]. 3. Key Data - **Spot Prices**: The national average price of三元live pigs was 12.52 yuan/kg, the average price of二元sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, the average price of culled sows was 8.97 yuan/kg, the 7kg piglet出栏price was 182.86 yuan/head, and the 15kg piglet price was 260.8 yuan/kg [7]. - **Supply Data** - **Short - term Supply**: In September, the national live pig inventory increased to 436.8 million heads. The 10 - month enterprise planned出栏was 13.3933 million heads, a 5.48% increase from the previous month. The standard - fat price difference was - 0.75 yuan/kg [7][22][26]. - **Medium - term Supply**: In September, the national piglet birth number was 5.676 million, and the survival rate was 92.56% [7][32]. - **Long - term Supply**: In September, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month [7][34]. - **Demand Data**: This week, the national slaughter enterprise's operating rate rebounded to 34.94%, the slaughter volume increased to 147,506 heads, and the fresh - meat sales rate was 86.04%. The pork wholesale volume in Beijing Xinfadi and the pig trading volume in Foshan Zhongnan Agricultural Products Wholesale Market are in seasonal growth. The frozen - product storage rate increased to 18.22% [7][36][38]. - **Cost and Profit Data**: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding has decreased. Currently, the profit of purchasing piglets is about - 80 yuan/head, and the self - breeding profit is about 10 yuan/head [7][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, international oil prices first decreased and then increased, with a slight downward shift in the central level. WTI remained around $60 per barrel. The core driver of the oil market is the supply surplus during the off - season, which drives oil prices gradually lower. Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are the main disturbing drivers. Looking ahead to November, the oversupply of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, global crude oil inventories will continue to accumulate, and oil prices still have strong downward momentum. It is recommended to short on rebounds, and buy call options for position risk control. The recommended price ranges are WTI [50, 60] for the outer market and SC [380, 480] for the inner market [8][106]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: In October, international oil prices first decreased and then increased, with WTI remaining around $60 per barrel. The off - season supply surplus is the core driver, while macro and geopolitical factors are the main disturbances [8][106]. - **Outlook**: In November, the supply surplus will be more prominent, global inventories will continue to accumulate, and oil prices have strong downward momentum. It is recommended to short on rebounds and use call options for risk control. The price ranges to focus on are WTI [50, 60] for the outer market and SC [380, 480] for the inner market [8][106]. 2. Macroeconomic Situation - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30, the second rate cut this year, and will stop shrinking the balance sheet on December 1. Powell said the current interest rate is close to the neutral range, and it is "far from certain" whether to cut rates in December. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2% to 3.2% [8][25]. 3. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Supply** - OPEC+ may increase the production target by 137,000 barrels per day in December. As of the week ending October 24, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.64 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 barrels per day. In September 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day [9][40]. - The on - the - way crude oil volume is rising, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [15]. - Russia's current crude oil export volume is about 5 million barrels per day, and its petroleum product export volume is about 2.37 million barrels per day. China and India are the major buyers. However, due to pressure from the West on India, Indian refineries may reduce Russian oil purchases [17]. - **Demand** - The IEA's latest monthly report lowered the 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 710,000 barrels per day and kept the 2026 growth at 700,000 barrels per day. OPEC predicted that the global oil demand increment in 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [9]. - As of the week ending October 24, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 14.6713 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,600 tons. In September, the monthly crude oil import volume was 47.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.87%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 423.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.75% [61]. - **Inventory** - As of the week ending October 24, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.86 million barrels to 415.97 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 5.94 million barrels to 210.74 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 3.36 million barrels to 112.19 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserves increased by 530,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels [68][70]. - As of the week ending October 31, China's port inventory was 28.982 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 327,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory was 2.649 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons [72]. 4. Spreads and Positions - **Spreads** - The inter - market spread is mentioned, but no specific data is provided. The outer - market monthly spread remains low. As of October 30, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.37 per barrel, and the M1 - M6 spread was $0.72 per barrel. U.S. gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are at certain levels, and domestic refined oil cracking spreads have declined [86][92]. - **Positions** - Information on WTI, Brent positions, inner - market SC warehouse receipts, and total positions is provided, but no specific analysis is given. 5. Summary - The off - season supply surplus is the core driver of the oil market, and with the accumulation of inventories, oil prices are under downward pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds and use call options for risk control.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Sino-US summit and the Fed's hawkish rate cut, the macro positives are exhausted. Copper reached a record high and then consolidated at a high level to accumulate strength. It is recommended to use trailing stop-loss to protect long positions. In the long term, copper is still favored. [6] - Copper, as the "gold" of the new era, has increasing strategic value in the context of Sino-US competition. In the short term, due to the exhaustion of macro positives, copper needs to consolidate at a high level. In the long term, considering the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming green copper demand, copper is expected to perform well. [6] Summary According to the Directory 1. Viewpoint Summary - The Sino-US summit led to a relaxation of Sino-US relations, with both sides making concessions. The US inflation data was lower than expected, and the government was shut down. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of a December rate cut. In the short term, the macro positives are exhausted, and copper needs to consolidate at a high level after reaching a record high. [99] - On the fundamental side, global copper concentrate supply is disrupted, and the copper smelting industry at home and abroad is against the so - called "involution." With the winter maintenance of domestic smelters, the electrolytic copper output in October is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of output contraction in the fourth quarter. [99] - In terms of inventory, non-US copper inventory is decreasing, but most of it is locked by hedge funds and traders, unable to adjust the global copper inventory imbalance. High copper prices suppress demand, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors drag down demand, while the power and automotive sectors maintain resilience. [99] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Monetary Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a December rate cut. [9][11] - **Sino-US Relations**: The Sino-US summit on October 30 led to both sides making concessions. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control for one year, and China will suspend relevant export control measures. [12] - **China's Policy**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes the economy as the center, which boosts market confidence and is conducive to the transformation of new and old kinetic energy in the economy. [13] - **China's Economic Data**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year. [16] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - **Copper Concentrate**: Global copper concentrate supply is facing continuous disruptions. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and production interruptions in other mines have exacerbated the shortage of copper concentrate. The import of copper concentrate in China decreased in September, and the port inventory is lower than the historical average. The copper concentrate TC is at a historically low level, and the smelting processing fee is deeply inverted. [49] - **Refined Copper**: In 2025, China's refined copper production contributed most of the global increment, while overseas production declined in many countries. In October, the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to continue to decline due to smelter maintenance. [58][64] - **Waste Copper**: The supply of waste copper is tight. The export of high - quality waste copper in Europe is restricted, and the import of US waste copper is limited. The refined - waste price difference has widened. [55] Demand - **Downstream Processing**: High copper prices have suppressed demand. In September, the output and operating rate of copper products increased slightly, but the overall demand has not improved significantly. The operating rate of some downstream enterprises has fluctuated. [73] - **Terminal Demand**: The power and new energy vehicle sectors show resilience. From January to September, grid engineering investment increased by 9.9% year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly. [77] 4. Summary and Outlook - **Price Range**: In November, the focus range for Shanghai copper is [84,500, 91,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [10,500, 11,500] US dollars/ton. [7][99] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions, do not blindly chase high prices. For new entrants, try to go long on dips. [7][99]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is cautiously bullish on the lithium carbonate main contract [76] Core Viewpoints - In November, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate will continue to improve, with the total inventory maintaining a destocking trend. The supply growth rate may decline month - on - month, and overseas import pressure will ease. Demand remains at a high - prosperity level, resulting in a stage supply - demand mismatch and an upward shift in the price center of lithium carbonate [76] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - China's official manufacturing PMI in October was 49 (previous value 49.8), and non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1 (previous value 50). The GDP growth rate in Q3 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than 5.2% in Q2. The monthly growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 7.1% (previous value - 7.1%), with real estate investment in September at - 21.3% (previous value - 19.5%), and the decline continued to widen. China and the US reached tripartite results, and tariffs were suspended for one year. The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25bp to 3.75 - 4% and will stop reducing its balance sheet from December 1st, but its stance on subsequent interest rate cuts is hawkish [3] Supply Side - The estimated output in October was about 97,000 tons, a slight increase from last month. Domestic smelting capacity has expanded, and output has continued to grow year - on - year with sufficient raw material supply. Salt lake restart and increased spodumene operation rate contributed to the output growth, while the operation rate of mica remained low. In September, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 19,597 tons, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase [3] Demand Side - From September 1st to 30th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.307 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 17% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.878 million, a 24% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 1.489 million, a 21% year - on - year increase and a 15% month - on - month increase, with a cumulative wholesale volume of 10.433 million this year, a 32% year - on - year increase [4] Inventory - As of October 30th, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 127,359 tons, a decrease of 9,566 tons from last month. The inventory of upstream smelters was 32,051 tons, a decrease of 1,441 tons; the inventory of downstream material factories was 53,288 tons, a decrease of 7,705 tons; and the inventory of other links was 42,020 tons, a decrease of 420 tons. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,641 tons, a decrease of 14,068 tons from last month [4] Cost and Profit - As of October 24th, the average industry cost was 68,679 yuan/ton, a 489 - yuan increase from last month. The price of African SC 5% was 620 US dollars/ton, a 30 - dollar increase; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 950 US dollars/ton, a 120 - dollar increase; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,575 yuan/ton, a 245 - yuan increase. The lithium carbonate industry profit was 7,424 yuan/ton, a 2,352 - yuan increase from last month [4] Price List of the Lithium - Battery Industry - The prices of various lithium - battery products increased to varying degrees from September 30th to October 30th. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,500 yuan/ton to 82,500 yuan/ton, a 12.24% increase; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 72,000 yuan/ton to 81,500 yuan/ton, a 13.19% increase [5] Market Review in October - As of October 30th, LC2601 closed at 83,400 yuan/ton, a 14.56% increase from last month. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,500 yuan/ton, a 12.2% increase. The basis discount widened. The open interest of the main contract was 530,000. The main contract of lithium carbonate rose strongly, with a significant decline in warehouse receipts and an accelerated destocking of total inventory [6] Production - As of September, the national lithium carbonate production capacity was 2,322,420 tons, a 3.02% month - on - month increase. The monthly operation rate was 50.28%, a 1.97% increase. The production in September was 95,442 tons, a 3.3% month - on - month increase and a 50% year - on - year increase. As of October 24th, the lithium carbonate production was 23,170 tons, a 405 - ton increase from last week, and the enterprise operation rate was 52.31%, a 0.91% increase [10][11] Import and Export - In September 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 19,597 tons, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase. The import price was about 8,625 US dollars/ton, a 0.8% month - on - month increase. In September, China's lithium spodumene imports were 711,000 tons, a 14.8% month - on - month increase [15][20] Apparent Demand - In September, the domestic apparent consumption of lithium carbonate was 114,888 tons, a 0.9% month - on - month increase and a 44% year - on - year increase. The terminal market was in the traditional consumption peak season, and the new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy stimulated consumption advance [22] Terminal Demand - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year increase. The penetration rate reached 57.8%, a 2.6 - percentage - point increase from last month. The power battery loading volume was 76.0GWh, a 21.6% month - on - month increase and a 39.5% year - on - year increase [25] Energy Storage Market - In September 2025, the domestic energy storage market tender scale was 11.7GW/33.3GWh for energy storage systems and EPC general contracting tenders, with other procurement orders also landing. The average price of 2 - hour energy storage systems was 0.641 yuan/Wh, a 31% month - on - month increase [30] 3C Digital Market - In Q3 2025, the global smartphone shipments reached 322.7 million, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The total shipments of global PCs increased by 6.8% year - on - year to 72 million. In September, the smartphone production was 122.75 million, a 0.1% year - on - year increase and a 22% month - on - month increase [31] Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of October 24th, the lithium iron phosphate production was 83,503 tons, a 22,300 - ton increase from last month. The enterprise operation rate was 73.49%, a 4.58 - percentage - point increase [36] Ternary Materials - During the terminal sales peak season, the downstream procurement demand for ternary materials was strong [38] Other Cathode Materials - The demand for other cathode materials was stable, and leading enterprises maintained full production and sales [47] Cost Side - As of October 30th, the price of African SC 5% was 620 US dollars/ton, a 30 - dollar increase from last month; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 950 US dollars/ton, a 120 - dollar increase; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,575 yuan/ton, a 245 - yuan increase [58] Profitability - As of October 24th, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 68,679 yuan/ton, a 489 - yuan increase from last month, and the industry profit was 7,424 yuan/ton, a 2,352 - yuan increase. The production cost of lithium hydroxide was 69,004 yuan/ton, a 481 - yuan increase, and the industry profit was 6,418 yuan/ton, a 91 - yuan decrease [60][62] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand differences of lithium carbonate from January to November 2025. The supply - demand difference is expected to be negative in the later period, indicating a tight supply - demand situation [75] Views and Strategies - In November, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate will continue to improve, with the total inventory maintaining a destocking trend. The supply growth rate may decline, and demand remains strong. The price center of lithium carbonate will move up. The main contract of lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish, and buying on dips is more cost - effective [76] Operation Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Buy after sufficient dips, with a reference range of [78,600, 90,000]. Hedging strategy: Production enterprises can hedge at high prices according to their production situations or reduce the hedging ratio. Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [77]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November, global iron ore supply and demand will both decline, with a static tight supply - demand situation. The price movement is dynamic. The weak supply - demand pattern in the finished product segment continues, and steel mill profits are compressed. Attention should be paid to the decline in hot metal production in November. If the daily average production remains below 235,000 tons, there may be a negative feedback market. If the hot metal production remains high, ore prices will remain firm [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review In October, the prices of iron ore futures and spot goods fluctuated strongly. As of October 30, the futures price of the main contract increased by 22 yuan/ton month - on - month [3][5]. 3.2 Iron Ore Market Analysis - **Supply Side** - Four major mines are expected to reduce shipments by about 7.6 million tons in November compared to the previous month [6][29][35]. - Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable, with an estimated 44.6 million tons in November, a decrease of about 1.75 million tons month - on - month [6][32][35]. - Domestic mine production is expected to be 19.95 million tons in November, a decrease of 650,000 tons month - on - month [6][34][35]. - Overall, global supply will decrease by about 10 million tons in November [6][35]. - **Demand Side** - In October, China's national pig iron production is estimated to be 74.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.16%. In November, blast furnace hot metal production is expected to be 71.4 million tons, a decrease of 3.35 million tons month - on - month, resulting in a reduction of 5.88 million tons in iron ore demand [6][17][21]. - Outside China, the daily average pig iron production is stable for now. In November, pig iron production is estimated to decrease by 30,000 tons, resulting in a reduction of about 490,000 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [6][20][21]. - Globally, iron ore demand will decrease by about 6.37 million tons in November [6][21]. 3.3 Steel Mill Profit Blast furnace profits are compressed, and electric furnace losses are expanding. As of the end of October, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a year - on - year increase of 2.57 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a year - on - year increase of 1.46 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a year - on - year decrease of 17.32 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 239,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,300 tons [8][14]. 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - Port inventory: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 145 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [36]. - Steel mill inventory: Steel mill inventory is close to the critical value, and there is a certain need for replenishment [38].