| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量回升，表观需求继续下降，体现了近期较好的高炉利润与需求淡 | | | | 季特征。库存小幅下降，供需总体上矛盾不大，部分地区缺规格现象仍然 | | | | 存在。铁水产量仍然处于高位，出口需求仍然较好。外围地缘政治风险有 | | | | 一定的向上拉动作用，但幅度有限。在现实基本面未出现明显改善的背景 | | | | 下，钢价或继续区间运行。【2970，3010】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅下降，表观需求环比回升，库存重新下降。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，矛盾不大。地缘政治风险抬高商品整体水平，但对国内钢价实际影响 | | | | 较有限，预计短期维持区间运行。【3090，3130】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 供给端发到货双降，港口去库，钢厂增库。整体供需结构环比继续改善。 | | | | 近期煤矿环保减产，煤价走强，支撑原材料价格。短期区间参与，中期逢 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical variables are large, but the long - term trend of reducing dollar dependence globally and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged, so the long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged. For copper, in the short - term, due to the off - season demand, the price needs to be adjusted, but in the long - term, the supply of global copper mines is tight, and there is confidence in the long - term rise of copper prices. Zinc is expected to have an oversupply situation in the long - term. Aluminum, nickel, and lithium carbonate are all under pressure due to factors such as off - season demand and supply - side pressure [1][3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Gold is in a strong shock, and silver has a strong rebound [1]. - **Market Review**: European countries cut interest rates, the geopolitical situation did not expand, gold slightly declined, and silver lacked new drivers, with a large outflow of funds [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates, three European central banks cut interest rates in a row, and there are geopolitical variables. The short - term geopolitical variables are large, and the long - term gold long - bull logic remains unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold is in the adjustment stage, pay attention to the 800 pressure for SHFE gold in the short - term, and consider long - term investment opportunities. Silver lacks new impetus, pay attention to the gap support [3]. Copper - **Core View**: Copper is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: SHFE copper tested the support of the lower integer mark [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, the off - season of consumption is deepening, downstream demand is weak, but green copper demand in power and new energy vehicles is strong [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, take profit on copper long positions, and industrial customers should actively arrange short - hedging at high prices. In the long - term, be confident in the rise of copper prices. SHFE copper focuses on the range of [77800, 78800], and LME copper focuses on [9580, 9680] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Zinc is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and showed a weak shock [9]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be loose in 2025, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, zinc is under pressure and tests the previous low support. In the long - term, take short positions at high prices. SHFE zinc focuses on [21700, 22000], and LME zinc focuses on [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Core View**: Aluminum is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas trade is uncertain, and the inventory is decreasing, but the demand is entering the off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and the supply is relatively loose [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell SHFE aluminum at high prices, and pay attention to aluminum ingot inventory changes. The main operation range is [20000 - 20800] [12]. Nickel - **Core View**: Nickel rebounds and then falls [1]. - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded weakly, and stainless steel was under pressure [13]. - **Industry Logic**: The cost support of nickel mines is weakening, the supply of refined nickel is excessive, and the stainless steel industry is facing the pressure of off - season and high inventory [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operation range of nickel is [117000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Lithium carbonate is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased positions slightly and oscillated at a low level [15]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply - side pressure of lithium carbonate remains high, the production has recovered to the same - period high, the new capacity is still ramping up, and the inventory is increasing [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell at high prices in the range of [59000 - 60500] [16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线反弹 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升， | | | | 豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存补库有所恢复，但仍有可 | | | | 补库空间，只是积极性预计有所下降。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植基本顺利 | | | | 叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面依然偏空。虽然美豆优良率同比偏低，但目前产量 | | | | 实际影响较小，更多为炒作。前日豆粕维持反弹，由于逼近前高区域阻力，继续追 | | | | 多操作需谨慎，观望为宜。在美豆面积报告公布前，预计将维持 20 日均线以上运 | | | | 行为主。主力【3050，3100】 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量及表观需求继续下降，库存去化良好。铁水产量仍然处于高位， | | | | 钢坯需求良好，铁水转向明显。宏观情绪改善带来的提振有限，同时原料 | | | | 端双焦仍存在一定出货压力。现实基本面尚未出现明显改善，中期重回区 | | | | 间运行，短期表现或偏弱。【2960，3000】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷需求继续回落，近期已低于去年同期，库存延续小幅增加的状态，供 | | | | 需层面偏弱。出口后期存在回落可能，同时黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压 | | | | 制行情表现。中期区间运行，短期表现偏弱。【3070，3110】 | | 铁矿石 | 逢高布空 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双降，港口钢厂库存双增。整体供需结构好转。近期煤矿环 | | | | 保减产，煤价走强，支撑原材料价格。观点：短期区间操作，中期逢高布 | | | | 空。【685,715】 | | | 区间运行 | 今日焦化利润持续 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | | | 近期市场不确定性上升，波动加剧，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成 | | LPG | | 本端油价受地缘冲击，短线走强；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE | | | 偏强 | 开工率上升；库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：波动加剧，双 | | | | 买期权。PG【4500-4650】 | | | | 上中游去库，基差走弱，华北基差为-48（环比-41）。2024 年 PE 自伊朗 | | | | 进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续相关进口存缩量预期。 | | L | 空头反弹 | 本周检修力度超预期，预计产量下降。近期市场情绪好转，下游阶段性逢 | | | | 低补库， ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is influenced by factors such as Fed's stance, US economic data, and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold is in a long - term bullish trend, while short - term fluctuations are affected by geopolitical variables. Silver shows strong rebounds but requires careful position control [5][6]. - In the base metals market, copper is expected to be bullish in the long - term due to global copper supply shortages and strategic importance, but short - term risks need to be watched. Zinc has a long - term supply - increase and demand - weak situation, while short - term it has limited downside due to cost support. Aluminum shows short - term strength in the near - month but faces supply - related pressure. Nickel is under pressure due to supply and downstream inventory issues [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply surplus persists, and prices are expected to decline due to increasing inventory expectations [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold slightly declined as geopolitical situations did not expand. Silver showed strong rebounds. SHFE gold was at 785.42, up 0.04% from the previous value, and SHFE silver was at 9045, up 2.04% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The Fed kept rates unchanged, US economic data weakened, and there were geopolitical uncertainties. In the long - term, the trend of reducing dollar dependence and fiscal - monetary easing remains, supporting the long - term bullish view of gold [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, consider long - term positions when the opportunity arises, with short - term attention on the 800 resistance. For silver, pay attention to recent high resistance and control positions [6]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper showed narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE copper closed at 78610 yuan/ton, down 0.01% [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight, and there are concerns about overseas soft - squeeze risks. The consumption off - season has led to downstream hesitation, but green copper demand has offset some traditional demand shortages [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short - term long positions cautiously and take partial profits at high prices. Be optimistic about copper in the long - term. SHFE copper should be monitored in the range of [78000, 79500], and LME copper in the range of [9650, 9750] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and oscillated around the upper integer level. The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 21955 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand has weakened, and the start - up rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe in the short - term. In the long - term, take short positions on rallies. SHFE zinc should be monitored in the range of [21800, 22200], and LME zinc in the range of [2650, 2750] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices were strong in the near - month, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend. The main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 20680 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: In June, the reduction in domestic aluminum ingot casting led to inventory depletion. The overseas bauxite supply is high, and the alumina supply surplus continues [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rallies for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main contract should be monitored in the range of [20000 - 20800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel showed a weak trend. The main contract of SHFE nickel closed at 118480 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The increase in nickel ore shipments from the Philippines and the decline in Indonesian nickel ore prices have weakened cost support. Stainless steel inventory pressure has resurfaced as the terminal enters the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption. The main contract of nickel should be monitored in the range of [117000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and rose, with an intraday high - then - low movement [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply surplus of lithium carbonate persists. During the off - season of terminal demand, production has recovered to a high level, and inventory is expected to increase, driving prices down [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies in the range of [59000 - 61000] [16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 按照 短线反弹 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升， | | | | 豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存补库有所恢复，但仍有可 | | | | 补库空间，只是积极性预计有所下降。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植基本顺利 | | 豆粕 | | 叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面依然偏空。虽然美豆优良率同比偏低，但目前产量 | | | | 实际影响较小，更多为炒作内容。前日豆粕维持反弹，由于逼近前高区域阻力，继 | | | | 续追多操作需谨慎，观望为宜。在美豆面积报告公布前，预计将维持 20 日均线以 | | | | 上运行为主。主力【3030，3100】 | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量及表观需求继续下降，库存去化良好。铁水产量仍然处于高位， | | 螺纹钢 | | 钢坯需求良好，铁水转向明显。宏观情绪改善带来的提振有限，同时原料 | | | | 端双焦仍存在一定出货压力。现实基本面尚未出现明显改善，中期重回区 | | | | 间运行，短期表现或偏弱。【2960，3000】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷需求继续回落，近期已低于去年同期，库存延续小幅增加的状态，供 | | | | 需层面偏弱。出口后期存在回落可能，同时黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压 | | | | 制行情表现。中期区间运行，短期表现偏弱。【3070，3110】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双降，港口钢厂库存双增。整体供需结构好转。近期煤矿环 | | 铁矿石 | 逢高布空 | 保减产，煤价走强，支撑原材料价格。观点：短空减持，中期逢高布空 | | | | 【685,715】 | | | | 今日焦化利润持续收缩，独立焦企及 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【545-575】 | | LPG | | 近期市场不确定性上升，波动加剧，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成 | | | 偏强 | 本端油价受地缘冲击，短线走强；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE | | | | 开工率上升；库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：波动加剧，双 | | | | 买期权。PG【4450-4550】 | | | | 社会库存去化，期现齐涨，华北基差为-7（环比+41）。2024 年 PE 自中东 进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续相关进口存缩量预期。 | | L | 空头反弹 | | | | | 本周检修力度超预期，预计产量下降。近期市场情绪好转，下游阶段性逢 | | | | 低补库，关注后续库存去化力度。策略：检修叠加成 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线反弹 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 补库空间，只是积极性预计有所下降。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植基本顺利 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升， | | | | 豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存补库有所恢复，但仍有可 | | | | 叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面依然偏空。虽然美豆优良率同比偏低，但目前产量 | | | | 实际影响较小，更多为炒作内容。前日豆粕维持反弹，由于逼近前高区域阻力，继 | | | | 续追多操作需谨慎，观望为宜。在美豆面积报告公布前，预计将维持 20 日均线以 | | | | 上运行为主。主力【3030，3110】 | | | 短线反弹 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | 菜粕 | | 应展望压力 ...