| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆地区未来十五天降雨低于正常水平。本周豆粕库存继续累库，周二美豆优良率 | | 豆粕 | | 虽有环比下降，但低于市场预期。周六 USDA 将公布 9 月供需报告，存在美豆单产 | | ★ | 短线止跌反弹 | 调低风险。基本面暂偏多，但美豆收获临近，叠加国内短期供应充足，市场追多谨 | | | | 慎对待，注意仓位控制及风控管理。前日国内豆粕小幅收涨，本周整体暂以反弹对 | | | | 待。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。上周中加会晤后，尚未 | | 菜粕 | | 有新的进展出现。中方延期对加籽的反倾调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日， | | ★ | 短线止跌反弹 | 但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关 | | | | 注中加近期会议结果。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 | | 棕榈油 | | 望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。美国议员提交法案反对将小型炼油厂掺混义务转移至 | | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量环比降幅较大，但后期存在较快回升的预期。螺纹产量及表需均小幅下降，库 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 存继续增加。目前处于验证需求成色阶段，房地产及基建仍然偏弱，或拖累行情中期表 | | | | 现。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存继续增加，基本面相对平稳。钢材供需整体有宽松趋势， | | ★ | | 阶段性利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期仍有回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 铁水产量受阅兵影响环比明显减量，关注铁水修复情况。港口累库，钢厂短期补库需求 | | ★ | | 不强。外矿发到货双降，降幅较大，基本面好转。矿价震荡偏强。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭第一轮提降落地。目前焦化利润尚可，后期产量预计会逐步恢复。铁水产量环比下 | | ★ | | 降，后期亦有回升预期。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，短期区间运行。 | | | | 前期受阅兵影响，焦煤产量环比明显回落，后期将逐渐回升。蒙煤通关量处于较高水平， | | 焦煤 | 谨慎看多 | 进口量高位运行。铁水 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish Continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously Bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish Consolidation [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish Consolidation [3] Core Views - Crude oil prices are trending downward due to supply surplus despite a slight geopolitical boost. LPG follows the cost - side oil price rebound but has a bearish outlook. L and PP are in bearish consolidation with potential long - entry opportunities. PVC remains bearish with high inventory pressure. PX and PTA are cautiously bullish considering supply - demand and macro factors. Ethylene glycol, methanol, and urea are cautiously bearish due to supply - demand imbalances. Asphalt is bearish due to high valuation and weak cost. Glass and soda ash are in bearish consolidation with different supply - demand situations [1][2][3]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.73%, Brent up 1.66%, and SC up 0.56% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical events slightly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, and the US consumption peak season is over, leading to inventory accumulation and reduced demand support. Prices may drop to around $60 in the long - term [5]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October. US commercial crude and product inventories rose, and SPR inventory increased. China's crude imports in August were 49.492 million tons, with a 2.5% year - on - year increase in the cumulative imports from January to August [6]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 10, the PG main contract closed at 4,437 yuan/ton, up 0.54% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following the oil price, but the upstream oil has a bearish outlook due to over - supply. The supply and demand situation shows a slight change in supply and relatively stable demand [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,229 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: North China's spot price is stable, and the basis strengthens slightly. Supply pressure will ease due to increased device maintenance, and demand is supported by the peak season of shed films [17]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - entry opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7300] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,949 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices stop falling and stabilize, and the basis strengthens. Supply may decrease due to planned device maintenance, while demand is entering the peak season, and cost is supported [21]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - entry opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP [21]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,847 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts are accelerating registration, and the market is in a bearish situation with high inventory and weak demand. Export may be affected by policies [26]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about short - selling. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] for V [26]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6,781 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, while demand is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and macro factors are complex [29]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for low - entry long opportunities. Focus on the range of [6740 - 6820] for PX511 [30]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 5, PTA in East China was 4,585 yuan/ton [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is affected by device maintenance and new capacity, and demand shows signs of recovery. The supply - demand tight balance in September is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. TA processing fees are low [33]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions, look for low - entry long opportunities for TA, and opportunities to expand PTA processing fees. Focus on the range of [4670 - 4720] for TA01 [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 5, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,488 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices change little. Demand is improving, but cost support is weakening. Inventory is relatively low [37]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and look for high - entry short opportunities. Focus on the range of [4285 - 4330] for EG01 [38]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 5, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,310 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases due to the recovery of domestic and overseas devices. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening [40]. - **Strategy**: Do not short actively. Look for low - entry long opportunities for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2380 - 2410] for MA01 [41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Silver: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Copper: ★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Zinc: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Lead: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Tin: ★, indicating a neutral position [1] - Aluminum: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Nickel: ★, indicating a neutral position [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Polysilicon: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Hold long positions. Supported by short - to long - term factors such as interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical conflicts. Long - term strategic allocation is recommended. Be cautious of recession trading risks [1][3] - Silver: Hold long positions. High - level volatility in the short term. With strong demand and limited supply growth in the medium - to long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged. Pay attention to US dollar liquidity risks [1] - Copper: Hold long positions. The probability of a 50bp interest - rate cut by the Fed increases. With the arrival of the peak season and tight supply, long - term optimism is maintained [1][7] - Zinc: Wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. In the short term, more macro - and micro - level resonance is needed for further upward movement. In the long term, supply increases while demand decreases [1][10] - Lead: The price rebound is under pressure due to factors such as production recovery and weak downstream consumption [1] - Tin: The price stabilizes after a decline due to a weak supply - demand situation [1] - Aluminum: The price shows a strong upward trend. With the approaching peak season, demand recovers and supply is relatively stable [1][13] - Nickel: The price rebounds weakly. There is an oversupply of refined nickel and weak downstream consumption. Short - term profit - taking and waiting are recommended [1][17] - Industrial Silicon: The price shows a short - term upward trend due to news of energy - consumption restrictions [1] - Polysilicon: The price corrects from a high level. There are expectations of fundamental improvement and policy support. Short - term support is at 50,000 yuan [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. There is a strong game between long and short positions. The market is waiting for the market to stabilize [1][22] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold remains strong supported by interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical conflicts [2] - **Basic Logic**: US inflation pressure eases, interest - rate cut expectations increase; regional conflicts escalate; gold benefits from global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring in the long term [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position strategy in the short term. Gold should be continuously monitored if it fails to break through the high of 842. Silver may find support around 9630 [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper consolidates at a high level, adjusting and accumulating strength [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. With the arrival of the peak season, demand recovers, and the overall supply - demand is in a tight balance [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. Shanghai copper should focus on the range of [79,000, 82,000] yuan/ton, and LME copper on [9,900, 11,000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. Demand is expected to improve in the peak season [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for now, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of [22,000, 22,500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on [2,700, 2,900] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, interest - rate cut expectations are obvious. Production increases slightly, and demand recovers in the peak season. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory accumulates [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term long - position strategy for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,000 - 21,200] yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebound weakly, and stainless steel rebounds under pressure [16] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is an oversupply of refined nickel and weak downstream consumption. For stainless steel, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is gradually decreasing [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term profit - taking and wait - and - see strategy, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens low and goes high, falling more than 4% [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply shows an upward trend with a decreasing marginal increment. Demand shows peak - season characteristics, and inventory has been declining for four weeks. However, news of CATL's resumption of production affects market sentiment [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, focusing on the range of [70,000 - 71,500] yuan/ton [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term rebound**: Bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have a short - term rebound, but market participants should be cautious when chasing the upward trend due to approaching harvest and sufficient supply [1]. - **Short - term decline and adjustment**: Palm oil and soybean oil are in a short - term decline and adjustment phase, with operations turning to a wait - and - see mode due to uncertainties in U.S. biodiesel policies, and looking for opportunities to go long after stabilization [1]. - **Short - term adjustment**: Rapeseed oil is in a short - term adjustment, with its price mainly fluctuating with competing oils. Attention should be paid to China - Canada negotiations and U.S. biodiesel policies [1]. - **Cautious short - term bearish**: Cotton and red dates are under cautious short - term bearish views. Cotton is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and short - term short - selling is recommended this week. Red dates are expected to have a supply - demand pressure after considering carry - over inventory, and short - selling opportunities on rallies should be watched [1]. - **Cautious short - term bullish**: The live hog market is under a cautious short - term bullish view. Although there is short - term supply pressure, with the recovery of demand, the market may show a pattern of both supply and demand booming, and the price center may move up slightly in the autumn and winter consumption season [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of September 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 966.1 million tons, an increase of 60.5 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil factories was 731.7 million tons, an increase of 34.85 million tons from the previous week. The bean meal inventory was 113.62 million tons, an increase of 5.74 million tons from the previous week. The average coastal mainstream quotation was around 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to weaken [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA will release the September supply - demand report on Saturday, with a risk of lower U.S. soybean yields. The fundamentals are temporarily bullish, but with the approaching U.S. soybean harvest and sufficient short - term domestic supply, the market should be cautious when chasing the upward trend [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of September 5, the coastal area's main oil factory rapeseed inventory was 10.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.8 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contract was 5.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The rapeseed meal trend mainly follows the bean meal trend. Attention should be paid to the results of recent China - Canada meetings. The international market's Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, and the domestic market's rapeseed meal inventory has declined but is still higher year - on - year, with low demand and a low spot price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal [7]. Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory**: As of September 5, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 61.93 million tons, an increase of 0.92 million tons from the previous week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the proportion of market participants looking up increased [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The bio - diesel policy in the U.S. has encountered obstacles, and the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased in August, causing the palm oil price to fall. However, considering the unchanged fundamentals of bio - diesel, operations should be adjusted to a wait - and - see mode, and opportunities to go long after stabilization should be watched [9]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: The domestic spot cotton price decreased by 0.27% to 15,294 yuan/ton, and the international ICE cotton price increased by 0.39% to 66.72 cents/pound. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 141.56 million tons, lower than the same period last year [10][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, the U.S. cotton area's non - drought rate decreased, and the excellent - good rate remained stable. Domestically, new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, with weak cotton farmers' price - holding sentiment. The demand is slightly improved but still weak, and short - term short - selling is recommended this week [12][13]. Red Dates - **Price and Inventory**: The red date's main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.05% to 11,035 yuan/ton. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased by 46 tons to 9,410 tons, higher than the same period last year [14][15]. - **Market Outlook**: The main production areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage, and the weather speculation window is gradually closing. The new - season production is expected to decrease, but the supply - demand gap may not be obvious after considering carry - over inventory. Short - selling opportunities on rallies should be watched [15][16]. Live Hogs - **Price and Inventory**: The live hog's main contract Lh2511 increased by 0.64% to 13,315 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price remained stable at 13,750 yuan/ton. The national sample enterprise's live hog inventory increased by 19.08 to 3,782.4, and the出栏量 increased by 26.04 to 1,117.72 million heads [17][18]. - **Market Outlook**: In September, the planned出栏量 and the slight reduction of breeding sows put pressure on the spot market. In the medium - and long - term, the production capacity is gradually being reduced, and the far - month contract may have some support at the bottom. With the recovery of demand, the market may show a pattern of both supply and demand booming, and the price center may move up slightly in the autumn and winter [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish Continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously Bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish Consolidation [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish Consolidation [3] 2. Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors slightly boost oil prices, but supply surplus remains the core driver, and oil prices are trending downward. [1][5][6] - LPG: The cost side is weak, and there is pressure on the upside of liquefied gas. [1][9] - L: Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][15] - PP: Spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][20] - PVC: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and it is in a weak bottom - grinding phase. [1][25] - PX: The expectation of tight supply - demand balance is loosening, and the support from crude oil is weakening, with a cautious bearish view. [1][30] - PTA: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][33] - Ethylene Glycol: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][37] - Methanol: Supply - demand is loose, and there is port inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. [2][41] - Urea: The fundamentals remain weak, and the Indian tender price is lower than expected. Hold short positions cautiously. [2][44] - Asphalt: High valuation and a weak cost side, maintaining a bearish view. [3] - Glass: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, and spot prices have increased, but terminal demand is insufficient, in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] - Soda Ash: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. It is in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded and adjusted. WTI decreased by 0.32%, Brent increased by 0.56%, and SC increased by 1.51%. [5] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors slightly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, and the end of the US crude oil consumption season has led to a decrease in demand - side support. [6][7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [470 - 490] for SC. [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 9, the PG main contract closed at 4413 yuan/ton, up 0.55% month - on - month. [11] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of liquefied gas itself is not significant, and its price is mainly pegged to the cost - side oil price. The cost side still has room to decline. [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG. [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 contract closed at 7251 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. [16] - **Basic Logic**: North China's spot prices have slightly increased, and the basis has strengthened. Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand side is strengthening. [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support at the integer - level mark and try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7300] for L. [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP01 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. [21] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices are flat, and the market is fluctuating narrowly. Supply is expected to decrease this week, while demand is increasing. [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP. [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V01 contract closed at 4847 yuan/ton, down 0.9%. [26] - **Basic Logic**: The market is in a contango structure, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing short positions due to low - valuation support. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] for PVC. [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton. [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads, while demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to loosen. [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6810] for PX511. [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. [34] - **Basic Logic**: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in operating loads. Future new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply - side pressure. Demand is showing signs of recovery. [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the opportunity to expand PTA processing fees. Focus on the range of [4660 - 4710] for TA01. [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. [38] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, but the cost side is weak. [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to go short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4290 - 4340] for EG01. [40] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton. [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening. [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2370 - 2400] for MA01. [43] Urea - **Market Review**: The URO1 contract closed at 1713 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. The Indian tender price is lower than expected. [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Urea fluctuates within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on the 01 contract at high prices. [44] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: High valuation and a weak cost side, with an overall bearish view. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [3] Glass - **Basic Logic**: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, but terminal demand is insufficient. Supply is under pressure. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see as the market fluctuates at a low level. [3] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. Supply - demand remains loose. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rebounds as the supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量环比降幅较大，但后期存在较快回升的预期。螺纹产量及表需均小幅下降，库 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 存继续增加。目前处于验证需求成色阶段，房地产及基建仍然偏弱，或拖累行情中期表 | | | | 现。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存继续增加，基本面相对平稳。钢材供需整体有宽松趋势， | | ★ | | 阶段性利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期仍有回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 铁水产量受阅兵影响环比明显减量，关注铁水修复情况。港口累库，钢厂短期补库需求 | | ★ | | 不强。外矿发到货双降，降幅较大，基本面好转。矿价震荡偏强。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭第一轮提降落地。目前焦化利润尚可，后期产量预计会逐步恢复。铁水产量环比下 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 降，后期亦有回升预期。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，短期区间运行。 | | | | 前期受阅兵影响，焦煤产量环比明显回落，后期预期逐渐回升。蒙煤通关量处于较高水 | | 焦煤 | 谨慎看空 | 平，进口量高位运行。铁 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 非农数据大幅下修，市场预期降息次数加大，另外，以色列袭击哈马斯谈判代表， | | 黄金 | 多单持有 | 黄金有支撑。中长期主要国家政策双宽松，地缘格局重塑，央行继续买黄金，黄金 | | ★★ | | 资产配置需求强烈。长期黄金继续战略配置。短期谨防衰退忧虑交易 | | 白银 | | 降息预期大增，但是市场交易衰退，白银高位震荡。白银自身由于双宽政策积极， | | | 多单持有 | 中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化，使得需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，供需缺口明 | | ★★ | | 显，白银向上趋势不变。短期关注美元流动性风险 | | | | 美非农数据大幅下修，美联储 9 月降息 50bp 概率大增，但就业疲软同时也引发经济 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 衰退担忧，建议铜前期多单继续持有，部分可止盈落袋，中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | ★ | | | | | | 美非农大幅下修引发经济衰退担忧，市场情绪转谨慎，伦锌承压回落，国内库存累 | | 锌 | 反弹沽空 | 库，沪锌走弱测试下方关口支撑。中长期看锌供 ...

| . | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 美豆地区未来十五天降雨低于正常水平。本周豆粕库存继续累库，周二美豆优良率 | | | | 虽有环比下降，但低于市场预期。周六 USDA 将公布 9 月供需报告，存在美豆单产 | | 豆粕 ★ | 短线止跌反弹 | 调低风险。基本面暂偏多，但美豆收获临近，叠加国内短期供应充足，市场追多谨 | | | | 慎对待，注意仓位控制及风控管理。前日国内豆粕窄幅整理，本周暂以反弹对待。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。上周中加会晤后，尚未 | | 菜粕 | | 有新的进展出现。中方延期对加籽的反倾调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日， | | ★ | 短线止跌反弹 | 但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有限。菜粕近期反弹，走势以跟随豆粕趋势 | | | | 为主，继续关注中澳.中加后续进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 | | 棕榈油 | 短线整理 | 望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。由于 8 月马棕榈油存在继续累库预期 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | SPR | OPEC+继续扩产，油价承压。EIA 最新数据显示，美国商业原油库存上升， 累库量增快，消费旺季结束，需求端支撑减弱；供需方面，9 月 7 日， | | | 看空 | OPEC+继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，供给 | | ★★ | | | | | | 端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略：空单继续 | | | 持有。 | | | | | 成本端油价仍有下探空间，液化气上方承压。OPEC+连续扩产，成本端原 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 油基本面偏空，仍有下探空间；LPG 估值修复，主力合约基差处于正常水 | | ★ | | 平；PDH 开工率环比下降，但需求尚可，开工率超过 70%；供给端和库存 | | | | 变化不大，偏中性。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 社会库存窄幅去化，华北现货价格止跌企稳，近期装置检修力度增加，供 | | L | 空头盘整 | 给压力缓解。棚膜旺季陆续开启，农膜开工率 6 连增，需求端支撑走强， | | ★ | | 关注后续 ...