| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入去库阶 | | 豆粕 | | 段。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气为价格提供了基本面支撑。巴西产量再度遭到上调， | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 利空市场情绪，上周五豆粕小幅回落。关注后市南美天气情况。可关注逢低企稳短 | | | | 多机会。 | | | 1 | 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。加拿大首批菜籽 | | 菜粕 | | 已经采购，预计 3 月后到港。菜粕现货短期供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。 | | ★ | 止跌反弹 | 中加贸易关系缓解，长期将大幅化解国内进口供应。菜粕近月价格存在支撑，主力 | | | | 及远月看多谨慎对待。 | | 棕榈油 | | 本月前 20 日马棕榈油产量环比大幅下降，马棕榈油出口数据环比虽然增加，但仍有 | | ★ | 短期反弹 1 | 月累库风险，且近期反弹较高，追多谨慎对待。关注 1 月马棕榈油去库情况。 | | 豆油 | | 国内豆油库存阶段性去库开启，但近期价格持续上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Strong - biased, ★★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Iran situation and Trump's actions, along with Fed - related factors, support the long - term strategic value of gold and silver [1][3] - Copper has supply constraints in the short - to - medium term, and its long - term outlook is positive due to supply shortages and growing green demand [1][5][6] - Zinc rebounds due to unexpected inventory reduction in the off - season and active enterprise restocking [1][7][9] - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and demand differentiation [1][11][12] - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of overseas supply contraction and domestic high - inventory and weak - consumption conditions [1][14][16] - Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish as supply is tight and demand is expected to increase [1][18][19] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold futures rose 8.44% weekly, approaching the $5000 key psychological level; COMEX silver futures soared 16.63% weekly, breaking through the $100 mark [2] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical tensions, Fed - related factors, and central bank gold - buying support long - term strategic value; silver follows gold's safe - haven property [1][3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term holding; domestic gold has short - term support at 1085, and domestic silver at 23150; long - term bullish in 2026 [1][3] Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly; for example, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract increased by 2.21% [4] - **Core Logic**: Japanese smelters face pressure in TC/RC negotiations, and Chile delays the peak of copper production; short - term supply is tight, and long - term demand from green sectors is strong [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profit on long positions; long - term, bullish; SHFE copper focuses on the range of [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on [13000, 13500] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc prices are rising; the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.51% [7] - **Core Logic**: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026; domestic inventory reduction in the off - season exceeds expectations, and enterprises restock actively [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions at high prices; enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging; SHFE zinc focuses on [24500, 24500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on [3250, 3300] dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [11] - **Core Logic**: The output of electrolytic aluminum increases, and inventory accumulates; the alumina market is in surplus [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see; pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory; the main operation range is [23300 - 25300] [13] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices rebound under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [15] - **Core Logic**: Indonesia reduces nickel ore production targets, and domestic pure nickel inventory accumulates; stainless steel is in the off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see; pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory; the main operation range of nickel is [135000 - 153000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opens and closes higher, hitting a new high [18] - **Core Logic**: Supply is tight due to reduced production and uncertain resumption of production; demand is expected to increase as downstream prepares for the Spring Festival [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [17300 - 185000] [20]

中辉能化观点 乙二醇 ★ 谨慎追涨 供需改善，低估值有所修复。供应端，国内乙二醇装置整体开工负荷下滑 月底前后重启）、富德能源、盛虹炼化停车中；成都石化按计划检修、三 业三期降负至月底、河南能源延后重启），海外装置近期传闻有变动叠加 检修预期量偏高。需求端季节性走弱但未低于预期。港口库存回升，1-2 月存累库预期。供应端短期改善带来利多，乙二醇估值有所修复。 绝对估值不低，甲醇综合利润-234.5 元/吨，华东基差-53（-20）元/吨。供 体略有提负，马石油 3#Sarawak 停车检修，印尼 Kaltim72wt 装置 1.11 停 车检修 1 个月；伊朗目前仅 Bushehr、FPC、KPC3 套装置在运行；其他海 甲醇 ★ 谨慎追涨 应端方面，综合利润走弱，国内甲醇装置开工负荷高位下滑。海外装置整 外装置暂无大的变动。进口方面， 1 月到港量预计超 100 万吨，供应端压 力尚存。需求端略有走弱，烯烃需求方面，全国及浙江外采烯烃装置降负， 近期，山东恒通、江苏斯尔邦、浙江兴兴陆续停车；传统下游综合开工负 荷略有回升但整体仍处于季节性低位。成本支撑弱稳。整体而言，甲醇供 需略显宽松，地缘冲突升温叠加北美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the black sector showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of rebar fell 0.7% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil fell 0.3%, iron ore fell 2.1%, coke rose 0.3%, and coking coal fell 1.2%. The furnace material end showed weakness. In the off - season, the overall contradictions in the steel market were limited. The absolute level of rebar inventory was not high and the pressure was not great. The production of hot - rolled coil was significantly lower than the same period last year, which supported the gradual reduction of inventory and the continuous decline of pressure. The molten iron production was generally flat, the blast furnace profit was average, and steel mills had little enthusiasm for expansion. The overall performance of commodities was strong, and the Wenhua Commodity Index rose above 170 again, bringing external drive to the black sector [2]. - From the perspective of the black sector's own supply and demand, the support from raw materials is weakening, but the inventory pressure of coils is marginally reducing. The overall contradictions in the industry are relatively limited. The commodity index has risen to a key pressure level again, and there is a possibility of a breakthrough upwards in the later period. In the short term, the futures market may rebound supported by the overall bullish sentiment, but due to the general fundamental conditions, it may be difficult to have sustainability, and it is still judged to operate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - **Black Sector Futures Performance**: This week, the main contract of rebar fell 0.7% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil fell 0.3%, iron ore fell 2.1%, coke rose 0.3%, and coking coal fell 1.2% [2]. - **Steel Supply and Demand**: In the off - season, the overall contradictions in the steel market were limited. The absolute level of rebar inventory was not high and the pressure was not great. The production of hot - rolled coil was significantly lower than the same period last year, which supported the gradual reduction of inventory and the continuous decline of pressure. The molten iron production was generally flat, the blast furnace profit was average, and steel mills had little enthusiasm for expansion [2]. - **External Drive**: The overall performance of commodities was strong, and the Wenhua Commodity Index rose above 170 again, bringing external drive to the black sector [2]. Steel Production Data - **Monthly Data (December 2025)**: The monthly production of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative production was 836,040,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The monthly production of crude steel was 68,180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative production was 960,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The monthly production of steel was 115,310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative production was 1,446,120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The monthly import of steel was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%; the cumulative import was 6,060,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The monthly export of steel was 11,300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%; the cumulative export was 119,020,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [5]. - **Weekly Data (January 23, 2026)**: The weekly production of rebar was 1,995,500 tons, an increase of 92,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 1,855,200 tons, a decrease of 48,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 0%. The inventory was 4,521,000 tons, an increase of 140,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.44%. The weekly production of wire rod was 751,300 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 740,000 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5%. The inventory was 926,000 tons, an increase of 8,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The weekly production of hot - rolled coil was 3,054,100 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 3,099,600 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2%. The inventory was 3,577,800 tons, a decrease of 45,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The weekly production of cold - rolled coil was 884,300 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. The weekly consumption was 882,200 tons, a decrease of 37,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%. The inventory was 1,587,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.92%. The weekly production of medium and heavy plate was 1,510,700 tons, a decrease of 73,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.14%. The weekly consumption was 1,515,300 tons, a decrease of 66,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 0.97%. The inventory was 1,959,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.41%. The total weekly production of the five major steel products was 8,195,900 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The total weekly consumption was 8,100,000 tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.87%. The total inventory was 12,570,000 tons, an increase of 1,007,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [6]. Steel Demand Data - **Real Estate High - Frequency Data**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 10%. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land acquisition area of 100 cities was 19% [29]. - **Cement and Concrete Demand**: The cement出库量 was lower than the previous year for most of 2025, and it is still lower than the same period last year in 2026. The concrete delivery volume is the same as the same period last year [32]. - **Steel Export**: In December, the steel export volume was 11.3 million tons, close to the historical high level. The export profit of hot - rolled coil has rebounded slightly recently [38]. Steel Inventory and Spread Data - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil has been reduced, and the space for further contraction is relatively limited. The East China basis of rebar has risen to around 150, which is at a high level in the same period and may be difficult to strengthen further [3]. - **Rebar Basis**: The rebar basis has strengthened slightly this week, and the absolute level is relatively high. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot - rolled coil, which is also reflected in the month - on - month increase in rebar production. According to past rules, the basis is expected to narrow, but the convergence amplitude may be weaker than in previous years under the support of low inventory [51]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Basis**: The hot - rolled coil basis is running around - 0 and has strengthened slightly. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is continuously decreasing supported by the decline in production, which supports the basis [59]. - **Rebar Month - to - Month Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - to - month spread of rebar has been fluctuating in the negative range with limited fluctuations. The rebar inventory stopped decreasing this week, and the inventory increase is earlier from a lunar calendar perspective. After the production control in 2025 ended, the release of production capacity may lead to a relatively better supply of rebar, and the month - to - month spread is difficult to strengthen [66]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Month - to - Month Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - to - month spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 20 with little change [71]. - **Coil - Rebar Spread**: The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil has been reduced, and the space for further contraction is relatively limited [3].

沪铜周报 特朗普夺岛TACO，铜牛窄幅踏步 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2026-01-23 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】建议铜短期多单继续持有，移动逢高止盈，充分回调后仍是布局良机，长期依旧看 好铜，保持定力和耐心 【策略展望】 4 特朗普夺岛TCAO，欧美关系反复，美国经济数据强劲，基本面，全球铜显性库存高位，淡季 累库拖累铜价，短期多空激烈博弈，争夺10万关口，铜高位震荡，建议短期铜多单移动止盈， 关注30日均线支撑，长期铜多单保持定力。中长期看，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵 金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，对铜依旧看好。 短期沪铜关注区间【98500，105500】元/吨，伦铜关注区间【12500，13500】风险关注：中 美关系，铜矿干扰，需求不足 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 美国经济数据超预期，特朗普夺取格陵兰岛TACO -200 0 200 400 600 800 1 ...

碳酸锂周报： 供需双轮驱动，碳酸锂谨慎看涨 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2026.1.23 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国12月规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.8%，较上月加快0.6%，制造业表现亮眼；12月社会消费品零售总额同比增 5.6%，内需修复节奏偏温和； 12月出口金额达3577.5亿美元，创单月历史新高，同比增长6.6%，增速较上月提升0.7%；12月房 地产投资同比下降35.8%，多数城市库存去化，挤水分，政策促进止跌回稳，转型新模式；12月CPI同比上涨0.8%，核心CPI上涨 1.2%，涨幅连续4个月高于1%，为2024年3月以来最高。PPI同比下降1.9%，降幅收窄0.3%。海外市场，美国四季度GDP初值年化环 比增长3.3%，远超预期的2%，12月核心PCE指数同比增长2.9%，环比增长0.2%。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量小幅下滑，矿端采矿证问题持续发酵，叠加部分企业年底检修，市场供应偏紧。 【需求端】乘联分会发布数据，1月1-18日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售31.2万辆，同比去年1月同期下降16%，较上月同期下降 52%，今年以来累计零售31.2万 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Short-term Rebound**: Soybean meal and soybean oil are expected to have short-term rebounds due to factors like inventory changes and positive market sentiments [1][3]. - **Stop Falling and Rebound**: Rapeseed meal is likely to stop falling and rebound, but a cautious view is recommended due to long - term supply changes [1][6]. - **Short - term Rebound**: Palm oil is expected to have a short - term rebound, yet chasing high prices should be done with caution [1][8]. - **Short - term Oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is predicted to have short - term oscillations, with its decline limited by the high basis [1]. - **Oscillatory Adjustment**: Cotton is expected to have oscillatory adjustments in the short - term, with potential for recovery in the long - term [1][12]. - **Short - term Rebound**: Jujube may experience a short - term rebound as high inventory reduction accelerates, but overall it is under pressure [1][14]. - **Beware of Callback**: For live pigs, there is a need to beware of callback pressure in both the near - term and far - term contracts [1][17]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory and Import**: This week, the latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month, and the estimated imports in February are lower compared to the same period last year, indicating an expected de - stocking phase [1][3]. - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: Positive talks between Chinese and US officials boosted market confidence in US soybean exports. Slow start of South American soybean harvest (Brazil's harvest rate is 2.3%, lower than the five - year average) and drought in some parts of Argentina provided fundamental support for prices [1][3]. - **Price Movement**: Soybean meal rebounded significantly from its low yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather in South America in the future [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Import and Supply**: There was zero rapeseed import in January, and the average monthly import in February and March is 120,000 tons, much lower than the same period last year. The spot inventory pressure of rapeseed meal has been alleviated, but the supply is tight, and the spot trading is light during the off - season [1][6]. - **Long - term Supply**: Although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and ending stocks, the easing of China - Canada trade relations and the reduction of the comprehensive import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% will significantly ease the domestic import supply in the long - term [1][6]. - **Price Outlook**: A cautious view is recommended for the bullish outlook on rapeseed meal [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Production and Export**: The latest data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of this month decreased significantly month - on - month, which is positive for market sentiment. Although the export data of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation in January [1][8]. - **Price Movement**: Palm oil continued to close higher yesterday. However, due to the recent high rebound, chasing high prices should be done with caution. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of Malaysian palm oil in January [1][8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: The January USDA data is slightly bullish for the ICE market. The decline of the US dollar index and the strength of the external bulk commodities provide support for the cotton market. The short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong [1][10][12]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic new cotton processing is basically completed, and the sales progress has slowed down. The raw material inventory pressure has further increased. The import side is gradually realizing the previous internal - external price difference pressure. On the demand side, domestic consumption is in the off - season, and textile mills are gradually on holiday at the end of the year, with weakening support. The market is also affected by the poor retail performance in December [1][11][12]. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to adjust weakly. In the long - term, considering the reduction in planting and the expectation of replenishment at home and abroad, attention should be paid to the recovery performance after the release of negative factors [1][12]. Jujube - **Supply and Demand**: The acquisition in the production areas is over, and the market supply has increased. At the same time, it has entered the winter consumption peak season. The high inventory reduction has accelerated, which may promote a short - term rebound [1][14]. - **Price Outlook**: The spot market is flat. With the peak of new product listing and the consumption peak season, the futures market fluctuates more. In the context of a loose supply - demand pattern, the overall trend is expected to be under pressure, but short - term rebound opportunities can be noted in the context of the cooling peak season [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Short - term Situation**: As of now, the slaughter progress in the first 10 days of January is relatively slow. As the time approaches the end of January, the pre - festival slaughter pressure increases. The recent spot price rebound has increased the willingness of group farms to slaughter. The current high standard - fat price difference has driven the entry of second - fattening, and the contradiction in the spot market may be postponed [1][16]. - **Medium - term Situation**: The number of new - born piglets in steel - linked sample enterprises in December increased month - on - month, and the feed efficiency of piglets continued to increase in December. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is difficult to improve significantly [16]. - **Long - term Situation**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in the fourth quarter, but the de - stocking speed was slow, and the far - month contracts face certain hedging pressure. The industry has been in a loss situation for more than 17 weeks, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of losses [16][17]. - **Price Outlook**: As the end of January approaches, the slaughter pressure increases, and the price support becomes more difficult. The demand side has declined due to the end of the stocking market. The near - month contracts may face increasing pressure, and the far - month contracts are also under pressure in the short - term [1][17].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) have a "Cautiously Bullish" rating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Demand decreased slightly month-on-month, production increased supported by profits, and inventory began to accumulate. Steel mill profits are average, and high raw material prices suppress restocking enthusiasm. Overall, it will maintain range-bound operation [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory decreased slightly but the absolute level is high and the de-stocking speed is still slow. Spot prices are relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market, and it will maintain range-bound operation in the medium term [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: In this period, both arrivals and shipments of overseas ore decreased. After the price decline, some steel enterprises showed purchasing interest, driving the ore price to strengthen periodically [1][6][7] - **Coke**: The first round of price hikes was blocked. After the recent increase in raw material coal prices, coke enterprises' losses deepened, but short-term production enthusiasm is still okay and supply decreased slightly month-on-month. Iron water production was basically flat month-on-month, and downstream restocking enthusiasm is average, mainly buying on demand. The market may fluctuate after the previous rapid decline on the futures market [1][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: Previously shut-down coal mines have gradually resumed production, supply increased month-on-month, and inventory started to accumulate. In terms of imports, port clearance volume has returned to the same high level as the same period, and spot prices are under pressure to fall. Downstream restocking mentality is cautious. The market may fluctuate after the previous rapid decline on the futures market [1][12][13] - **Ferromanganese**: Regional supply increased month-on-month, demand improved marginally, and inventory increased month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders has started one after another, and the recently announced tender prices are mostly concentrated between 5,870 - 5,940 yuan/ton, with the final price of a landmark steel mill at 5,920 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 150 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain range-bound operation in the short term [1][15][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the main production areas decreased slightly month-on-month, demand improved marginally, and inventory increased significantly. A new round of steel tenders has started one after another, and the final price of a landmark steel mill is 5,760 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the actions of other steel mills. It is expected to maintain range-bound operation in the short term [1][15][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **Rebar Futures**: The latest price of Rebar 01 is 3,190, down 2; Rebar 05 is 3,117; Rebar 10 is 3,162, up 3. The basis and spread data also show corresponding changes [2] - **Hot-rolled Coil Futures**: The latest price of Hot-rolled Coil 01 is 3,316, up 1; Hot-rolled Coil 05 is 3,287, up 1; Hot-rolled Coil 10 is 3,302, down 3. The basis and spread data also show corresponding changes [2] - **Coke Futures**: The latest price of Coke 1-month contract is 1,863.0, down 9.0; Coke 5-month contract is 1,688.0, up 4.5; Coke 9-month contract is 1,758.0, down 0.5. The basis and spread data also have corresponding changes [8] - **Coking Coal Futures**: The latest price of Coking Coal 1-month contract is 1,367.0, up 0.5; Coking Coal 5-month contract is 1,131.5, up 2.5; Coking Coal 9-month contract is 1,203.0, unchanged. The basis and spread data also have corresponding changes [11] - **Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon Futures**: For ferromanganese, the latest price of Manganese Silicon 01 is 5,910, down 4; Manganese Silicon 05 is 5,814, up 28; Manganese Silicon 09 is 5,860, up 16. For ferrosilicon, the latest price of Ferrosilicon 01 is 5,744; Ferrosilicon 05 and Ferrosilicon 09 also have corresponding price and spread data [14] 3.2 Weekly Data - **Coke**: The capacity utilization rate of all independent coke enterprises was 72.4%, down 0.1 percentage point; the daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills was 228.1, up 0.1; the daily average coke production of sample coking plants was 63.3, down 0.1; the daily average coke production of 247 steel mills was 46.4, down 0.2; sample coking plant coke inventory was 81.5, down 0.4; 247 steel mills' coke inventory was 661.6, up 11.3; inventory available days were 12.4 days, up 0.4 days; port coke inventory was 196.1, up 8.0; independent coking enterprise's profit per ton of coke was -65.0, down 20.0 [8] - **Coking Coal**: The sample coal washing plant's start-up rate was 61.5%, down 0.8 percentage points; the daily average clean coal production of sample coal washing plants was 52.1, unchanged; the daily average coke production of sample coking plants was 50.0, unchanged; the daily average coke production of 247 steel mills was 46.9, up 0.2; sample coking plant's coking coal inventory was 995.2, up 40.4; inventory available days were 15.0 days, up 0.6 days; 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 803.2, up 1.0; inventory available days were 12.9 days, unchanged; total port coking coal inventory was 289.4, down 9.5 [11] - **Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon**: The start-up rate of ferromanganese enterprises was 36.21%, up 0.15 percentage points; the start-up rate of ferrosilicon enterprises was 29.09%, down 0.12 percentage points; the output of 187 ferromanganese enterprises was 191,135, up 560; the inventory of 63 ferromanganese enterprises was 373,000, up 200; the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises was 98,400, down 300; the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises was 67,220, up 3,470 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical issues and the Fed's stance are key factors affecting precious metals. Gold and silver have long - term investment value due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. Copper has long - term potential due to supply shortages and green demand, but short - term fluctuations are affected by seasonality and market sentiment. Zinc shows a short - term rebound but is limited by weak fundamentals. Aluminum and nickel face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand. Industrial silicon and polysilicon have short - term rebound opportunities. Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish with supply - side disturbances [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold reached a new high due to geopolitical issues. SHFE gold was at 1087.58 with a - 0.43% daily change and a 3.40% weekly change; COMEX gold was at 4938 with a 2.11% daily change and a 7.33% weekly change. Silver also showed an upward trend. SHFE silver was at 23339 with a 0.90% daily change and a 0.65% weekly change; COMEX silver was at 96 with a 3.51% daily change and a 6.97% weekly change [2]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical issues such as Trump's rumored actions in Cuba and the weakening of the US dollar due to large - scale capital outflows from US dollar assets. Central banks continue to buy gold, and long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged. Silver's logic is dominated by gold's safe - haven property [1][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term holding. The short - term support for domestic gold is at 1040, and for domestic silver is at 21000. In 2026, the overall support for precious metals is still strong, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The 100,000 - yuan mark was regained after a tug - of - war. The closing price of SHFE copper was 100270, down 0.43% from the previous day [4]. - **Core Logic**: BHP slightly raised its copper production guidance for fiscal year 2026. In December 2025, refined copper imports decreased. Although it is currently the traditional off - season, the long - term supply - demand logic remains unchanged, with tight global copper concentrate supply and growing green demand for copper [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For existing long positions, use trailing stop - loss to lock in profits. New entrants should wait for a full correction. In the long - term, copper is still promising. Short - term, SHFE copper is in the range of [99500, 103000] yuan/ton, and LME copper is in the range of [12500, 13000] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The market sentiment improved, and zinc showed a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. The closing price of SHFE zinc was 24530, up 0.74% from the previous day [7]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink, and domestic new mine production increases are uncertain. Refined zinc production in December decreased, and downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates declined during the off - season [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long positions should take profits on rallies. Enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging to lock in profits. SHFE zinc is in the range of [24200, 24800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc is in the range of [3150, 3250] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices faced pressure in the short - term, and alumina stabilized at a low level [11]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was put into production, and inventory increased. The downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates showed a differentiated trend. The alumina market remained oversupplied [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For SHFE aluminum, take profits and wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23000 - 25000] [13]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices faced pressure in the short - term, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [15]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. Indonesia significantly reduced its nickel ore production target, and there were issues of illegal land occupation in some mines. Domestic pure nickel inventory increased, and stainless steel was in the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits and wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [133000 - 151000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and went high, hitting a new high during the session [18]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the news of canceling export tax rebates for lithium batteries, prices rose for two consecutive days, but then回调 due to the overall decline of the non - ferrous sector and exchange position - limit measures. The upstream lithium salt plants had high enthusiasm for production, and the new production capacity of material plants in 2026 provided support for rigid demand [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: High - level oscillation in the range of [16400 - 175000] [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Oscillating strongly [2] - Ethylene glycol: Oversold rebound [2] - Methanol: Cautiously avoid shorting [2] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX/PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, natural gas, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views and main logics for each product, considering factors such as supply - demand, cost, inventory, and geopolitical situations [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 2.08%, Brent down 2.91%, and domestic SC up 1.18%. As of January 16, US crude oil inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels to 426.04 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 5.97 million barrels to 256.9 million barrels, distillate inventories rose by 3.35 million barrels to 132.5 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserves increased by 0.8 million barrels to 414.5 million barrels [7][8][10]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term, the recent cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere drove up natural gas prices, which in turn led to an oil price rebound. The Middle East geopolitical situation has eased but remains uncertain. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of crude oil, with global crude oil inventories accelerating the accumulation, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices, so oil prices will enter a low - price range. Short - term, it is expected to rebound, but bearish in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of SC [430 - 440] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the PG main contract closed at 4,120 yuan/ton, up 1.38% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,480 (+10) yuan/ton, 4,428 (-39) yuan/ton, and 4,815 (-25) yuan/ton respectively [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly determined by the cost of crude oil, and crude oil prices are bearish in the long - term. In terms of supply - demand, the commodity volume remains stable, downstream chemical demand weakens, and inventories accumulate, making the LPG fundamentals bearish [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil, the price center is expected to continue to decline, and there is still room for LPG price compression. Pay attention to the range of PG [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price was 6,666 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The L05 basis was - 176 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has no obvious pressure. In the short - term, it fluctuates strongly following the chemical sector. Linear production scheduling has increased, but the spot price has not risen enough, and the basis continues to weaken. The device restart plan has increased this week, and the operating rate has risen to 85%. It is the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the terminal restocking is not sustainable. There is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the impact of the expected tax reform on naphtha tariffs on the olefin industry chain [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of L [6700 - 6950] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price was 6,624 yuan/ton, up 2.1%. The PP05 basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 34 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, it fluctuates strongly following the chemical sector. The cost of propylene maintains an upward trend. Pay attention to the impact of changes in naphtha consumption tax on the olefin industry chain. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. In January, the demand side is gradually entering the off - season, and downstream restocking power is insufficient. The shutdown ratio is 19%, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. PDH profits are compressed and remain at a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PP [6600 - 6750] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 closing price was 4,743 yuan/ton, down 1.3%. The V05 basis was - 243 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 118 yuan/ton [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: Social inventories are hitting new highs, and it is rising following the chemical sector. The spot price of liquid caustic soda has been falling continuously, and the comprehensive gross profit in Shandong has been compressed again. The cost support of marginal devices has improved. The FOB price of Tianjin calcium carbide method has decreased. In 2025, the export growth rate was 47%. There is a short - term phenomenon of rushing to export, but there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the long - term, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse. The main strategy is positive arbitrage between months. The fundamentals maintain a weak reality pattern. The domestic operating rate has increased to 80%, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the seasonal off - season, with no upward driving force [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of V [4750 - 4950] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: As of January 16, TA05 closed at 5,018 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 58 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 44 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee was 401.6 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Main Logic**: In terms of valuation, it is not low. The PTA processing fee has been repaired. On the supply side, domestic devices are overhauled as planned, and the overall overhaul intensity is high. On the demand side, downstream demand is seasonally weak, and polyester factories have announced overhaul plans for January and February. In terms of inventory, PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in January and February, but the pressure is not large. The cost side, PX, is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5260 - 5450] [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 closing price was 3,614 yuan/ton. The EG05 basis was - 101 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 104 yuan/ton [30]. - **Main Logic**: From a valuation perspective, it is relatively low. On the supply side, the domestic operating load has generally increased. Overseas devices have some changes and high overhaul expectations. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and polyester factories have announced overhaul plans for January and February. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January and February. It follows the cost fluctuation in the short - term and operates in a range [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3820 - 3890] [32]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol comprehensive profit was - 215.5 yuan/ton, at the 16.0% quantile level in the past six months, and the East China basis strengthened [35]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. On the supply side, the comprehensive profit has weakened, and the operating load of domestic methanol devices has declined from a high level. Overseas devices have generally reduced their loads. The expected arrival volume in January is about 850,000 tons, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. On the demand side, it has weakened slightly. The cost support is weakly stable. The supply - demand of methanol is slightly loose, and there is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The expected arrival volume in January is 850,000 tons, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The demand side is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2230 - 2280] [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,801 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was - 31 yuan/ton. The UR5 - 9 spread was 29 yuan/ton, and the weighted comprehensive profit was 60.20 yuan/ton [38][40]. - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the operating rate of coal - based and gas - based urea devices has increased. The warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period. The short - term demand is strong, and the winter storage is progressing steadily. The exports of urea and fertilizers are relatively good but declining month - on - month. The social inventory is still at a relatively high level. Under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor. The downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the support may weaken [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The benefit of winter storage is relatively limited, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is seasonally weak during the festival. The support from compound fertilizer demand is limited. Overseas natural gas price surges may affect the domestic market. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1770 - 1800] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the NG main contract closed at 3.529 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 10.87% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.350 (+0.810) US dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 14.659 (+1.336) US dollars/million British thermal units, and the domestic LNG market price was 3,828 (+29) yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere has led to a significant drop in temperature, boosting the demand side and driving up the gas price. The domestic LNG retail profit is 336 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the natural gas production has increased year - on - year, and the number of US natural gas rigs has decreased. On the demand side, the proportion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the actual sales of heavy - duty trucks from January to November 2025 was 26.00%. The US natural gas inventory has decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, supporting the gas price. However, the supply side is relatively sufficient, so the upward space of the gas price may be limited. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.866 - 5.496] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the BU main contract closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, up 2.69% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,080 (+10) yuan/ton, 3,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,180 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [46][47]. - **Main Logic**: The increase in buyers of Venezuelan crude oil exports and the decrease in discounts for domestic sales support the asphalt price. The asphalt comprehensive profit is 62 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1.023 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% month - on - month and 9.1% year - on - year. In 2025, the asphalt import and export volumes increased year - on - year. The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises has increased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still about 200 yuan/ton of compression space. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the range of BU [3150 - 3250] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price was 1,039 yuan/ton, down 1.6%. The FG05 basis was - 28 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [51][52]. - **Main Logic**: The enterprise inventory has increased from a decline. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, and there is no upward driving force. Before the cold repair is further realized, it should be treated bearishly. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with the daily melting volume remaining at 150,700 tons. The weak demand suppresses the upward space [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1030 - 1080] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 1.9%. The SA05 basis was - 28 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream production enterprises maintain a high operating rate, and the in - factory inventory is slowly decreasing from a high level. The daily melting volume of float glass has been declining continuously, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The second - phase 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and the short - term device restart has increased, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 84%. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased. The demand support is insufficient. Before the overhaul is further intensified, it should be treated bearishly [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [57].