Report Title - 202501031 Zhonghui Futures Monthly Report on Live Pigs: Limited Acceleration in Capacity Reduction, Beware of Rebound Risks in Peak Season [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - and medium - term trading follows fundamental logic, with the futures market showing signs of bottoming. There may be a certain warming opportunity in the peak season due to improved demand and structural support from large pigs, but the rebound height in Q4 is expected to be limited. The far - month contracts can be strategically bullish in the long - term, subject to policy influence. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts, beware of the rebound risk of the peak - season 01 contract after bottom - probing, and also consider shorting opportunities for the off - season 03 contract. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Performance - **Live Pig Spot Prices**: This week, the national live pig spot price rebounded to 12.54 yuan/kg, with prices in other provinces also rebounding to varying degrees. For example, the price in Henan rebounded to 12.74 yuan/kg, in Jiangsu to 12.86 yuan/kg, in Hunan to 12.1 yuan/kg, in Chongqing it remained stable at 13.25 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan it rebounded to 12.2 yuan/kg [3][16]. - **Sow Prices**: The average price of culled sows rebounded slightly, up 0.68 yuan to 8.97 yuan/kg. The average price of二元sows decreased by 14.28 yuan/head to 1529.52 yuan/head. Due to weak demand from farmers, the price of二元sows is expected to continue its weak performance [3][18]. - **Piglet Prices**: The national 7kg piglet出栏price increased by 17.62 yuan to 182.86 yuan/head, and the 15kg piglet price increased by 20 yuan to 260.8 yuan/kg. It is speculated that small - scale farmers are entering the market by purchasing piglets [3][20]. 2. Logic and Outlook - **Price Movement Logic**: Before mid - October, due to the loose supply - demand pattern, both the futures and spot prices of live pigs declined. After the price reached a new low in the 10 - yuan range, farmers' willingness to hold prices increased. The widening of the standard - fat price difference in North and Northeast China led to more farmers delaying sales and second - fattening, supporting a staged price rebound. However, the short - selling pressure on the futures market remains significant [4]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In the short term, the supply pressure remains high. The planned出栏of large - scale farms has increased, the出栏weight is relatively high, and the inventory structure supports high supply pressure in Q4. Although the inventory of large pigs supports the peak season to some extent, the subsequent pressure from second - fattening is obvious. The reduction of the breeding sow inventory is not significantly accelerating, and the improvement in production efficiency offsets some of the reduction pressure [4]. - **Demand**: Recently, demand has shown a stable trend, with the slaughter rate remaining stable and the decline in the fresh - meat sales rate slowing down. It is expected that demand will improve with the cooling weather, resulting in a pattern of both supply and demand increasing [4]. - **Cost - Profit**: The short - term divergence between feed and live pig prices has reduced farmers' losses, which is not conducive to accelerating capacity reduction. Further losses are needed to drive the reduction of breeding sow inventory [4]. 3. Key Data - **Spot Prices**: The national average price of三元live pigs was 12.52 yuan/kg, the average price of二元sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, the average price of culled sows was 8.97 yuan/kg, the 7kg piglet出栏price was 182.86 yuan/head, and the 15kg piglet price was 260.8 yuan/kg [7]. - **Supply Data** - **Short - term Supply**: In September, the national live pig inventory increased to 436.8 million heads. The 10 - month enterprise planned出栏was 13.3933 million heads, a 5.48% increase from the previous month. The standard - fat price difference was - 0.75 yuan/kg [7][22][26]. - **Medium - term Supply**: In September, the national piglet birth number was 5.676 million, and the survival rate was 92.56% [7][32]. - **Long - term Supply**: In September, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month [7][34]. - **Demand Data**: This week, the national slaughter enterprise's operating rate rebounded to 34.94%, the slaughter volume increased to 147,506 heads, and the fresh - meat sales rate was 86.04%. The pork wholesale volume in Beijing Xinfadi and the pig trading volume in Foshan Zhongnan Agricultural Products Wholesale Market are in seasonal growth. The frozen - product storage rate increased to 18.22% [7][36][38]. - **Cost and Profit Data**: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding has decreased. Currently, the profit of purchasing piglets is about - 80 yuan/head, and the self - breeding profit is about 10 yuan/head [7][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, international oil prices first decreased and then increased, with a slight downward shift in the central level. WTI remained around $60 per barrel. The core driver of the oil market is the supply surplus during the off - season, which drives oil prices gradually lower. Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are the main disturbing drivers. Looking ahead to November, the oversupply of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, global crude oil inventories will continue to accumulate, and oil prices still have strong downward momentum. It is recommended to short on rebounds, and buy call options for position risk control. The recommended price ranges are WTI [50, 60] for the outer market and SC [380, 480] for the inner market [8][106]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: In October, international oil prices first decreased and then increased, with WTI remaining around $60 per barrel. The off - season supply surplus is the core driver, while macro and geopolitical factors are the main disturbances [8][106]. - **Outlook**: In November, the supply surplus will be more prominent, global inventories will continue to accumulate, and oil prices have strong downward momentum. It is recommended to short on rebounds and use call options for risk control. The price ranges to focus on are WTI [50, 60] for the outer market and SC [380, 480] for the inner market [8][106]. 2. Macroeconomic Situation - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30, the second rate cut this year, and will stop shrinking the balance sheet on December 1. Powell said the current interest rate is close to the neutral range, and it is "far from certain" whether to cut rates in December. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2% to 3.2% [8][25]. 3. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Supply** - OPEC+ may increase the production target by 137,000 barrels per day in December. As of the week ending October 24, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.64 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 barrels per day. In September 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day [9][40]. - The on - the - way crude oil volume is rising, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [15]. - Russia's current crude oil export volume is about 5 million barrels per day, and its petroleum product export volume is about 2.37 million barrels per day. China and India are the major buyers. However, due to pressure from the West on India, Indian refineries may reduce Russian oil purchases [17]. - **Demand** - The IEA's latest monthly report lowered the 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 710,000 barrels per day and kept the 2026 growth at 700,000 barrels per day. OPEC predicted that the global oil demand increment in 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [9]. - As of the week ending October 24, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 14.6713 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,600 tons. In September, the monthly crude oil import volume was 47.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.87%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 423.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.75% [61]. - **Inventory** - As of the week ending October 24, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.86 million barrels to 415.97 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 5.94 million barrels to 210.74 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 3.36 million barrels to 112.19 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserves increased by 530,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels [68][70]. - As of the week ending October 31, China's port inventory was 28.982 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 327,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory was 2.649 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons [72]. 4. Spreads and Positions - **Spreads** - The inter - market spread is mentioned, but no specific data is provided. The outer - market monthly spread remains low. As of October 30, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.37 per barrel, and the M1 - M6 spread was $0.72 per barrel. U.S. gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are at certain levels, and domestic refined oil cracking spreads have declined [86][92]. - **Positions** - Information on WTI, Brent positions, inner - market SC warehouse receipts, and total positions is provided, but no specific analysis is given. 5. Summary - The off - season supply surplus is the core driver of the oil market, and with the accumulation of inventories, oil prices are under downward pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds and use call options for risk control.

沪铜月报 历史新高后，铜牛或需盘整蓄力 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-10-31 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】中美元首会晤，美联储鹰派降息，宏观利多出尽，铜创出历史新高后高位盘整蓄力， 建议多单移动止盈保护，长期依旧看好铜 【策略展望】 铜作为新时代的"黄金"，在中美全面竞争的背景下，其战略价值不断跃升。短期中美元首会晤， 美联储鹰派降息，宏观利多出尽，铜创出历史新高后高位盘整蓄力，建议多单移动止盈保护长期 战略多单继续持有，风物宜放长量，保持耐心和定力。短期铜波动加大，产业套保降低仓位，控 制风险。中长期看，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿 色铜需求爆发背景下，对铜长期看好。 11月沪铜关注区间【84500，91500】元/吨，伦铜关注区间【10500，11500】美元/吨 【操作策略】 策略：多单持有，不要盲目追高，新入场回调逢低试多 【风险提示】 政策不及预期，需求不足，中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is cautiously bullish on the lithium carbonate main contract [76] Core Viewpoints - In November, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate will continue to improve, with the total inventory maintaining a destocking trend. The supply growth rate may decline month - on - month, and overseas import pressure will ease. Demand remains at a high - prosperity level, resulting in a stage supply - demand mismatch and an upward shift in the price center of lithium carbonate [76] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - China's official manufacturing PMI in October was 49 (previous value 49.8), and non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1 (previous value 50). The GDP growth rate in Q3 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than 5.2% in Q2. The monthly growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 7.1% (previous value - 7.1%), with real estate investment in September at - 21.3% (previous value - 19.5%), and the decline continued to widen. China and the US reached tripartite results, and tariffs were suspended for one year. The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25bp to 3.75 - 4% and will stop reducing its balance sheet from December 1st, but its stance on subsequent interest rate cuts is hawkish [3] Supply Side - The estimated output in October was about 97,000 tons, a slight increase from last month. Domestic smelting capacity has expanded, and output has continued to grow year - on - year with sufficient raw material supply. Salt lake restart and increased spodumene operation rate contributed to the output growth, while the operation rate of mica remained low. In September, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 19,597 tons, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase [3] Demand Side - From September 1st to 30th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.307 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 17% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.878 million, a 24% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 1.489 million, a 21% year - on - year increase and a 15% month - on - month increase, with a cumulative wholesale volume of 10.433 million this year, a 32% year - on - year increase [4] Inventory - As of October 30th, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 127,359 tons, a decrease of 9,566 tons from last month. The inventory of upstream smelters was 32,051 tons, a decrease of 1,441 tons; the inventory of downstream material factories was 53,288 tons, a decrease of 7,705 tons; and the inventory of other links was 42,020 tons, a decrease of 420 tons. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,641 tons, a decrease of 14,068 tons from last month [4] Cost and Profit - As of October 24th, the average industry cost was 68,679 yuan/ton, a 489 - yuan increase from last month. The price of African SC 5% was 620 US dollars/ton, a 30 - dollar increase; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 950 US dollars/ton, a 120 - dollar increase; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,575 yuan/ton, a 245 - yuan increase. The lithium carbonate industry profit was 7,424 yuan/ton, a 2,352 - yuan increase from last month [4] Price List of the Lithium - Battery Industry - The prices of various lithium - battery products increased to varying degrees from September 30th to October 30th. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,500 yuan/ton to 82,500 yuan/ton, a 12.24% increase; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 72,000 yuan/ton to 81,500 yuan/ton, a 13.19% increase [5] Market Review in October - As of October 30th, LC2601 closed at 83,400 yuan/ton, a 14.56% increase from last month. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,500 yuan/ton, a 12.2% increase. The basis discount widened. The open interest of the main contract was 530,000. The main contract of lithium carbonate rose strongly, with a significant decline in warehouse receipts and an accelerated destocking of total inventory [6] Production - As of September, the national lithium carbonate production capacity was 2,322,420 tons, a 3.02% month - on - month increase. The monthly operation rate was 50.28%, a 1.97% increase. The production in September was 95,442 tons, a 3.3% month - on - month increase and a 50% year - on - year increase. As of October 24th, the lithium carbonate production was 23,170 tons, a 405 - ton increase from last week, and the enterprise operation rate was 52.31%, a 0.91% increase [10][11] Import and Export - In September 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 19,597 tons, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase. The import price was about 8,625 US dollars/ton, a 0.8% month - on - month increase. In September, China's lithium spodumene imports were 711,000 tons, a 14.8% month - on - month increase [15][20] Apparent Demand - In September, the domestic apparent consumption of lithium carbonate was 114,888 tons, a 0.9% month - on - month increase and a 44% year - on - year increase. The terminal market was in the traditional consumption peak season, and the new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy stimulated consumption advance [22] Terminal Demand - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year increase. The penetration rate reached 57.8%, a 2.6 - percentage - point increase from last month. The power battery loading volume was 76.0GWh, a 21.6% month - on - month increase and a 39.5% year - on - year increase [25] Energy Storage Market - In September 2025, the domestic energy storage market tender scale was 11.7GW/33.3GWh for energy storage systems and EPC general contracting tenders, with other procurement orders also landing. The average price of 2 - hour energy storage systems was 0.641 yuan/Wh, a 31% month - on - month increase [30] 3C Digital Market - In Q3 2025, the global smartphone shipments reached 322.7 million, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The total shipments of global PCs increased by 6.8% year - on - year to 72 million. In September, the smartphone production was 122.75 million, a 0.1% year - on - year increase and a 22% month - on - month increase [31] Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of October 24th, the lithium iron phosphate production was 83,503 tons, a 22,300 - ton increase from last month. The enterprise operation rate was 73.49%, a 4.58 - percentage - point increase [36] Ternary Materials - During the terminal sales peak season, the downstream procurement demand for ternary materials was strong [38] Other Cathode Materials - The demand for other cathode materials was stable, and leading enterprises maintained full production and sales [47] Cost Side - As of October 30th, the price of African SC 5% was 620 US dollars/ton, a 30 - dollar increase from last month; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 950 US dollars/ton, a 120 - dollar increase; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,575 yuan/ton, a 245 - yuan increase [58] Profitability - As of October 24th, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 68,679 yuan/ton, a 489 - yuan increase from last month, and the industry profit was 7,424 yuan/ton, a 2,352 - yuan increase. The production cost of lithium hydroxide was 69,004 yuan/ton, a 481 - yuan increase, and the industry profit was 6,418 yuan/ton, a 91 - yuan decrease [60][62] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand differences of lithium carbonate from January to November 2025. The supply - demand difference is expected to be negative in the later period, indicating a tight supply - demand situation [75] Views and Strategies - In November, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate will continue to improve, with the total inventory maintaining a destocking trend. The supply growth rate may decline, and demand remains strong. The price center of lithium carbonate will move up. The main contract of lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish, and buying on dips is more cost - effective [76] Operation Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Buy after sufficient dips, with a reference range of [78,600, 90,000]. Hedging strategy: Production enterprises can hedge at high prices according to their production situations or reduce the hedging ratio. Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [77]

铁矿石： 供需结构偏紧，关注铁水降幅 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 分析师：李海蓉 黑色研究团队 李海蓉 Z0015849 陈为昌 Z0019850 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.10 行情回顾：10月期现货价格震荡偏强 来源:同花顺，中辉期货有限公司 来源:同花顺,中辉期货有限公司 10月期现货价格震荡偏强运行，截至10月30日主力合约期货价格月环比上涨22元/吨 2 铁矿石市场观点摘要 【供应端】四大矿山11月发运减少，预估环比减量发运760万吨左右；全球非主流发运整体比较稳定，11 月预估发运4460万吨，环比减量175万吨左右；国产矿预计11月份产量1995万吨，环比减少65万吨；11月 全球供应整体环比减量1000万吨左右。 【需求端】按照钢联统计口径，10月全国生铁产量预估7475万吨，同比增加6.16%；11月预计高炉铁水产 量7140万吨，环比减少335万吨。折算铁矿石需求减少588万吨。海外方面，除中国外生铁日均产量暂稳， 预估11月份生铁产量减少30万吨，折算61%品位的铁矿石需求减少49万吨左右。综合全球来看，11月份铁 矿石 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - In November, coking coal and coke prices are expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips. The coking coal market is likely to maintain a bullish trend due to factors such as low coal valuations, upcoming winter storage demand, and favorable fundamentals. There is also an arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on coke. The reference range for the coking coal main contract is [1200, 1400], and for the coke main contract is [1700, 1900] [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - In October, coking coal and coke prices were strong, outperforming other black series products. By October 30, the coking coal main contract rose 14.38% and the coke main contract rose 10.07% month - on - month. Affected by safety and environmental inspections, domestic coal mine production decreased month - on - month in October, and the operating rate remained at a low level. In the last week of October, pig iron production declined seasonally, and short - term steel mill procurement enthusiasm was okay, but steel mill profits were significantly compressed [4]. Supply and Demand - **Coking Coal Supply** - Mines: As of October 31, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines was 190.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 million tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 75.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 million tons [21]. - Coal Washeries: As of October 31, the daily average output of sample coal washeries was 26.52 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 36.46%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [24]. - Imports: From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year, with Mongolian coal imports down 3.85% year - on - year. In October, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at ports decreased significantly and has recently started to recover [6][25]. - **Coking Coal Demand** - The report does not provide detailed information on coking coal demand, but mentions that short - term steel mill procurement enthusiasm was okay, and pig iron production declined seasonally in the last week of October [4]. - **Coke Supply and Demand** - Supply: The report does not provide detailed supply data for coke. - Demand: As of October 31, the daily average coke consumption was 1.064 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 tons; the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 45.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [51]. Market Data - **Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost**: As of October 31, the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan was 1233 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 1383 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt costs of other types of coking coal in different regions are also provided [9]. - **Basis**: For coking coal, the basis for the January contract was 204, with a weekly change of 50 and a basis rate of 14.67%; for the May contract, the basis was 133, with a weekly change of 45 and a basis rate of 9.55%; for the September contract, the basis was 63, with a weekly change of 47 and a basis rate of 4.54% [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal remained at a low level compared to the same period [15]. - **Black Commodity Ratio**: The report does not provide detailed information on the black commodity ratio. - **Coking Coal Auction Data**: In the week of October 24, the coking coal auction listing volume was 1.4937 million tons, the成交 rate was 93.31%, and the non - trading rate was 6.69%, showing an increase in listing volume and成交 rate compared to the week of October 17 [31]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The report does not provide detailed information on coking coal total inventory but shows the inventory distribution of coke, including steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports [57]. - **Coke Inventory Distribution**: As of October 31, steel mill coke inventory was 629.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.11 million tons; independent coking enterprise inventory was 59.87 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.23 million tons; port inventory was 211.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.01 million tons [57].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In October, steel prices first declined and then rose. High hot metal production on the supply - side and weak real - estate and infrastructure data on the demand - side suppressed market expectations. Industrial policies provided short - term upward momentum, and the main rebound power came from the raw material side, especially the continuous disturbances in the coking coal supply. - From the perspective of steel supply and demand, hot metal production has dropped to the level of the same period last year. Due to high previous steel mill production, few overhauls, and low current profits, there is still room for further decline in hot metal production after November. Construction steel demand is lackluster, with no signs of recovery in housing construction and infrastructure. Coil demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level supported by exports, and overall demand is moderately weak. - In November, with the lack of strong trading drivers, steel is unlikely to have large - scale unilateral trends and will remain range - bound. Taking the rebar 2601 contract as a reference, the expected range is [3000, 3200]. The reduction in hot metal is expected to ease the inventory pressure of coils. Coking coal on the raw material side faces potential supply - side disturbances, which may provide continuous support, but low steel mill profits and reduced hot metal production will limit the upside of raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the steel market first declined and then rose, with a limited fluctuation range. After the National Day, steel demand recovered slowly, and overall steel inventory was high, causing the futures price to decline. During this period, the basis strengthened, and the spot price showed resilience. The futures price stabilized around 3020 and gradually rebounded, supported by supply disturbances in the coking coal market, new regulations on steel production capacity conversion, and the China - US summit. In October, the main rebar contract rose 1.7%, hot - rolled coil rose 2.2%, iron ore rose 2.6%, coke rose 11.7%, and coking coal rose 16.6% [6]. 3.2 Monetary and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally showed an upward trend, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to widen. In September, the incremental social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock declined, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 was at a low level [9]. 3.3 Price Index - In September, the CPI was - 0.3% (compared to - 0.4% in August), and the PPI was - 2.3%, with the decline narrowing. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 [12]. 3.4 Monthly Steel Data - From January to September, the cumulative production of crude steel decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, indicating that the pressure to control annual crude steel production is not significant. The year - on - year decline in pig iron production was 1.1%, significantly lower than that of crude steel, indicating a decrease in the proportion of scrap steel added in the converter process. Steel exports increased significantly, with an increase of 7250000 tons in steel exports and 7320000 tons in billet exports from January to September [13]. 3.5 Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of October 31, 2025, the total weekly production of five major steel products was 875290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9970 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.04%. The total weekly consumption was 916000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.28%. The total inventory was 1514000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41130 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 22.58% [14]. 3.6 Steel Production - According to the production data of five major steel products released by Steel Union, production has been relatively stable this year, with less fluctuation compared to previous years. Steel mills had good profits earlier this year, which supported production enthusiasm. However, since entering the fourth quarter, the profitability of steel mills has declined, and production may decrease significantly due to few overhauls during the year [17]. 3.7 Steel Production Profit - Currently, blast furnace profits have significantly declined compared to the previous period. The single - ton profit of rebar has dropped from 200 - 300 yuan to near the break - even point, and some steel mills in certain regions are already in the red. Electric furnace profits have been poor this year and are unlikely to improve significantly in November [18]. 3.8 Steel Demand - Demand has shown a counter - seasonal rebound in the past two weeks, but overall demand in November is expected to decline month - on - month. Construction steel demand remains weak, while coil demand is relatively strong, supported by exports [40]. 3.9 Steel Inventory and Basis - In October, the rebar basis was weak, with the 01 basis falling by about 30 yuan/ton. The narrowing of the basis mainly occurred during the second - half - month futures price rebound, indicating that although the spot price has some resilience, weak demand still exerts pressure. The hot - rolled coil basis also declined, with the 01 basis falling by 60 - 70 yuan/ton compared to the end of September, a larger decline than that of rebar. High inventories of hot - rolled coils suppress the spot price [79][84]. 3.10 Steel Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar is running at a low level, fluctuating around - 60, with little change. Weak demand suppresses the spread, but since it is already at the lowest level in recent years, the downward space is limited. The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 10, also with little change [89][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the products in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", with only natural gas rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1][2][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of the oil market remains supply surplus, and oil prices are expected to decline. The fundamentals of most energy and chemical products are weak, with supply pressure and uncertain demand. However, natural gas may rise due to increased demand in the peak season [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. The current core driver is supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to continue to decline [1][9] - **Logic**: OPEC+ may increase production in December. India's crude oil import increased in September. U.S. commercial crude and refined product inventories showed different trends. Geopolitical sanctions and macro - events provide some support, but overall, supply surplus dominates [9][10] - **Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and can add short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish. The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil, and it turns weak as the cost side declines [1][15] - **Logic**: The short - term geopolitical risk eases, and the cost side (crude oil) corrects. The supply decreases slightly, the demand side shows some resilience, and the port inventory increases [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation. Cost support weakens, and the supply is in a loose pattern [1][20] - **Logic**: Cost support weakens, social inventory decreases slightly, and the upper - middle stream inventory pressure is neutral. Import is expected to increase, and new device production will add to the supply. The demand peak season has insufficient restocking power [20] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Be bearish at high levels. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation. The basis weakens, and there is a high de - stocking pressure in the future [1][25] - **Logic**: The spot price lags behind the futures price increase. The upstream device maintenance increases, but the demand is at the end of the peak season. The oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Be bearish at high levels. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish rebound. Low - valuation provides support, but there is an over - supply problem [1][29] - **Logic**: Low - valuation supports, and the export may increase due to India's policy window. New production capacity has been released, and attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can cut production. [29] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a high contango. Industries should hedge at high prices. Participate in short - term rebounds with light positions. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Short - term supply - demand improvement is against the backdrop of pressured oil prices [1][31] - **Logic**: Supply - side devices at home and abroad continue to reduce load, and demand is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels. The cost - end oil price rebounds but has limited upside [31] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Arbitrage by going long PTA and short PX. Focus on the PX range of [6520 - 6630] [32] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. There is a short - term rebound due to supply - demand improvement and market speculation [2][34] - **Logic**: New devices are about to be put into production, but the processing fee is low, and future device maintenance may increase. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in November [34] - **Strategy**: There is no obvious unilateral trend. Arbitrage by going long PTA and short PX. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium - long term. Focus on the TA range of [4530 - 4600] [35] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Low valuation but lack of upward drive [2][37] - **Logic**: Domestic devices reduce load, overseas devices increase load slightly. New device production and the recovery of maintenance devices increase supply pressure. Terminal consumption improves slightly but lacks stability, and inventory may accumulate in November [37] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [38] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. The fundamentals remain weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking inflection point [2][41] - **Logic**: High inventory suppresses the spot price. The supply side has pressure with high import in October. The demand side shows slight improvement, and the cost support is weak and stable [41] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Arbitrage by MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2180 - 2230] [43] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Low valuation but potential downside risk [2][45] - **Logic**: Supply is relatively loose as production resumes. Domestic agricultural demand improves slightly, and export is good. Inventory is at a high level, and cost support exists [45] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Try long positions lightly in the medium - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1615 - 1655] [47] Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bullish. The demand side is expected to warm up as the temperature drops [5] - **Logic**: Geopolitical sanctions risks are released, the demand for heating increases as the temperature cools, and the supply is sufficient [5] - **Strategy**: Not mentioned [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Long - term strategic value of gold remains unchanged due to global currency easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction; short - term geopolitical issues cause small price increases [3] - Long - term positive outlook for copper due to strategic value, but short - term high - level risks are significant [6][7] - Zinc is under pressure in the short - term with sufficient macro - level positive factors realized, and in the long - term, supply increases while demand decreases [10][11] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short - term, supported by terminal consumption in the peak season [2] - Nickel prices are under pressure due to sufficient domestic supply and inventory accumulation, with only some support from the peak consumption season of nickel sulfate [2] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show no obvious contradictions, and it can be treated with a long - position approach in the short - term due to optimistic market sentiment [2] - For polysilicon, positive policies boost market sentiment, and long - positions can be held [2] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have improved in the short - term, with obvious inventory reduction and strong terminal demand, so long - positions can be held [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Situation**: After the G2 meeting, short - term geopolitical issues lead to a small increase in gold prices. Trump's support rate has declined, geopolitical issues are recurring, and the Senate has passed a resolution to terminate Trump's tariff policy [3] - **Investment Strategy**: Long - term strategic value is high, and long - positions can be held. In the short - term, entry can be considered when prices stop falling, with a support level of 910 for domestic gold [3][4] Silver - **Market Situation**: The short - term squeeze event has ended, and silver follows the trend of gold. In the long - term, global policy stimulates demand, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Long - positions can be held for the long - term, with a strong support level at 11200 [2] Copper - **Market Situation**: High - level retracement after the G2 meeting. Trump has revoked emission restrictions on copper smelters, and domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to decline. High prices suppress demand [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term: stop profit on long - positions and wait for prices to stabilize. Long - term: strategic long - positions can be held. Short - term, pay attention to the range of 84500 - 88500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10500 - 11200 dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc - **Market Situation**: Pressure on prices due to sufficient supply of zinc concentrates and weak demand in the peak season. The domestic zinc ingot export window is open, and overseas soft - squeeze risks persist [10] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, it is under pressure; in the long - term, it is a short - position allocation. Pay attention to the range of 22000 - 22500 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2950 - 3050 dollars/ton for London zinc [11] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: High - level consolidation, with alumina showing a slight stabilization trend. Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten, and domestic consumption in the peak season provides support [12][14] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, take profit on long - positions when prices are high. Pay attention to the operating range of 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [15] Nickel - **Market Situation**: Rebound is restricted due to inventory accumulation. Overseas supply disturbances are weakening, and domestic pure nickel inventory is increasing. Stainless steel inventory removal pressure is high [16][18] - **Investment Strategy**: Sell on rebounds. Pay attention to the operating range of 120000 - 123000 yuan/ton for nickel [19] Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: Fundamentals show no obvious contradictions. Northern production starts to slow down, and southern production is affected by the dry season. Downstream demand is weak, but market sentiment is optimistic in the short - term [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - positions in the short - term, with a range of 9100 - 9300 [2] Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: Positive policies boost market sentiment, with a contrast between strong expectations and weak reality [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Hold long - positions [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Fundamentals have improved in the short - term, with continuous inventory reduction and strong terminal demand. Supply is still growing, but there are some production restrictions in Sichuan [20][22] - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - positions in the range of 82800 - 85500 [23]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预期恢复，关注中美谈判结果新指引。目前现货油厂销售压力 | | 豆粕 | | 下降，存在挺价心理。中美会晤结果有关关税方面，略有调整，但目前的关税情况 | | | 短线震荡 | 依然导致美豆没有进口优势，对国内豆粕成本端支持依然存在，利空美豆。豆粕主 | | ★ | | 力合约大区间行情对待，短期震荡整理下，主力和远月可以关注调整后的短多机会 | | | | 关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线震荡 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，10 月，11 月马棕榈油预计持续累库。印尼增产 | | 棕榈油 | 短线回落 | 以及市场对于 B50 的质疑，利空棕榈油走跌。但考虑印尼生柴政策仍在，配合国内 | | ★ | | 棕榈油进口成本，棕榈油进一步可 ...