中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美国政府关门风险陡增、美联储主席候选人一波三折，伊朗局势紧张，欧美地缘问 | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 题反复，多基金撤离美元资产，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，全年来看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控 | | | 长期持有 | 制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多 | | ★★ | | 逻辑不变。 | | | | 美国内忧外患，四处树敌，美元指数走弱，贵金属飙升带动有色板块飘红，铜矿供 | | 铜 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 应紧张，海外冶炼厂长协谈判承压，建议铜多单继续持有，移动止盈落袋，中长期 对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 锌外强内弱，国内淡季去库超预期，企业补库积极，锌价重回 2 万 5 关口，建议前 | | 锌 | | | | ★ | 反弹 | 期多单持有，逐渐逢高止盈。企业卖出套保积极布局，锁定 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入阶段性 | | 豆粕 | | 去库。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气以及上周达沃斯中美会晤后，美政府对美豆出口 | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 中国展望乐观，叠加美生柴政策预期，美豆市场人气偏多。国内豆粕跟随反弹。由 | | | | 于国储抛售以及下游饲料企业前期已有一定备货准备，或限制短期持续上行空间。 | | | | 国内豆粕关注逢低短多机会，也可关注 59 正套机会。 | | | 1 | 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。加拿大首批菜籽 | | 菜粕 | 止跌反弹 | 已经采购，预计 3 月后到港。菜粕现货短期供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。 | | ★ | | 周末美加贸易波动，或影响中加贸易谈判结果，昨日菜粕价格大幅反弹，关注后续 | | | | 中加官方文件落地情况以及美加关系进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 本月前 20 日马棕榈油产量环比大幅下降，马棕榈油出口数据环比虽然增加，但仍有 | | ★ | 短线上涨 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘反复扰动，油价短线反弹。地缘：中东地缘反复，油价反弹；核心驱 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | ★ | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘反复，跟随成本端反弹。成本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹，当前 | | LPG | 空头反弹 | 原油仍过剩，中枢或继续下移；供需方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH | | ★ | | 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存 | | | | 环比下降。 | | L | | 短期跟随天然气偏强震荡，标品供应回升抑制反弹空间，关注寒潮和地缘 | | | 空头反弹 | 变动。两油石化库存暂无明显压力，上游出厂价偏强。近期线性排产继续 | | ★ | | 回升，农膜需求淡季，终端补库意愿不足，基本面供强需弱存累库预期， | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of black commodities first declined and then rebounded. Iron ore led the decline in the black - series at the beginning of the week, and coking coal and coke futures also weakened significantly. From Thursday, the chemical products sector rebounded across the board, and coking coal and coke prices followed the market sentiment and strengthened [4]. - In terms of supply and demand, some coal mines in the main production areas have stopped production, but most maintain normal production, with a slight increase in daily average output. Spot trading has weakened, and coal prices in the production areas have dropped slightly. Terminal buyers mainly purchase on - demand, and mine inventories have accumulated compared with the previous period [4]. - In terms of imports, the port clearance volume remains above 190,000 tons, maintaining the highest level in the same period. After the continuous decline of the futures market, traders' quotes have generally declined. Currently, the transaction price of some Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton, and the cost of Mongolian coal and Shanxi mainstream warehouse receipts is 1,160 - 1,270 yuan/ton [4]. - After the continuous rise of raw coal prices, the losses of coking enterprises have deepened. The first price increase proposed by coking enterprises was rejected. Some coking enterprises have taken measures such as delaying shipments to downstream customers. The game between coking and steel enterprises is intense, and the first price cut may be implemented, but the upward space is expected to be limited. Currently, steel mills' profits are average, and the pig iron output is basically flat compared with the previous period. Constrained by high raw material prices and safety inspections, steel mills are still cautious about replenishing inventories [4]. - With only three weeks left until the Lunar New Year, downstream demand for raw materials still exists but is difficult to increase significantly. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can exceed 2.3 million tons. From the perspective of capital sentiment, the main contract increased its positions by 3,000 lots this week, and the speculation degree has significantly declined compared with the previous period. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are limited, the futures price is basically at the same level as the Mongolian No. 5 warehouse receipts, and the price is in a relatively reasonable range. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate within a range following the market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high point [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal Market - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: Different varieties of coking coal have different spot prices and warehouse receipt costs in various locations. For example, the spot price of Mongolian No. 5 in Tangshan on January 22, 2026, was 1,390 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt cost was 1,163 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: The basis, weekly change, basis rate, average value in the past month, and seasonality of different contracts (January, May, September) are provided. For example, the basis of the January contract is - 41, with a weekly change of - 267 and a basis rate of - 3.33% [10]. - **Supply** - **Mine**: The daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 1.9944 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,500 tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 770,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [17]. - **Coal Washery**: The daily average output of sample coal washeries was 276,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 37.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62% [20]. - **Import**: In 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import volume from Mongolia increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 59.1% year - on - year [21][24]. - **Auction Data**: In the week of January 16, 2026, the coking coal listing volume was 1.8641 million tons, the transaction rate was 94.42%, and the non - transaction rate was 5.58%. Compared with the week of January 9, 2026, the listing volume increased by 394,700 tons, the transaction rate increased by 8.57%, and the non - transaction rate decreased by 8.57% [27]. 3.2 Coke Market - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit in different regions (national, Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong) has different values and weekly changes. For example, the national coking profit on January 22, 2026, was - 66 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basis**: Similar to coking coal, the basis, weekly change, basis rate, average value in the past month, and seasonality of different coke contracts (January, May, September) are provided [39]. - **Inventory Distribution**: As of January 23, 2026, the coke inventory in steel mills was 661,640 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,310 tons; the available days of steel mill inventory were 12.35 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 days; the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 81,450 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 360 tons; the port inventory was 196,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,990 tons [52].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入去库阶 | | 豆粕 | | 段。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气为价格提供了基本面支撑。巴西产量再度遭到上调， | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 利空市场情绪，上周五豆粕小幅回落。关注后市南美天气情况。可关注逢低企稳短 | | | | 多机会。 | | | 1 | 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。加拿大首批菜籽 | | 菜粕 | | 已经采购，预计 3 月后到港。菜粕现货短期供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。 | | ★ | 止跌反弹 | 中加贸易关系缓解，长期将大幅化解国内进口供应。菜粕近月价格存在支撑，主力 | | | | 及远月看多谨慎对待。 | | 棕榈油 | | 本月前 20 日马棕榈油产量环比大幅下降，马棕榈油出口数据环比虽然增加，但仍有 | | ★ | 短期反弹 1 | 月累库风险，且近期反弹较高，追多谨慎对待。关注 1 月马棕榈油去库情况。 | | 豆油 | | 国内豆油库存阶段性去库开启，但近期价格持续上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Strong - biased, ★★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Iran situation and Trump's actions, along with Fed - related factors, support the long - term strategic value of gold and silver [1][3] - Copper has supply constraints in the short - to - medium term, and its long - term outlook is positive due to supply shortages and growing green demand [1][5][6] - Zinc rebounds due to unexpected inventory reduction in the off - season and active enterprise restocking [1][7][9] - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and demand differentiation [1][11][12] - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of overseas supply contraction and domestic high - inventory and weak - consumption conditions [1][14][16] - Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish as supply is tight and demand is expected to increase [1][18][19] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold futures rose 8.44% weekly, approaching the $5000 key psychological level; COMEX silver futures soared 16.63% weekly, breaking through the $100 mark [2] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical tensions, Fed - related factors, and central bank gold - buying support long - term strategic value; silver follows gold's safe - haven property [1][3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term holding; domestic gold has short - term support at 1085, and domestic silver at 23150; long - term bullish in 2026 [1][3] Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly; for example, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract increased by 2.21% [4] - **Core Logic**: Japanese smelters face pressure in TC/RC negotiations, and Chile delays the peak of copper production; short - term supply is tight, and long - term demand from green sectors is strong [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profit on long positions; long - term, bullish; SHFE copper focuses on the range of [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on [13000, 13500] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc prices are rising; the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.51% [7] - **Core Logic**: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026; domestic inventory reduction in the off - season exceeds expectations, and enterprises restock actively [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions at high prices; enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging; SHFE zinc focuses on [24500, 24500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on [3250, 3300] dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [11] - **Core Logic**: The output of electrolytic aluminum increases, and inventory accumulates; the alumina market is in surplus [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see; pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory; the main operation range is [23300 - 25300] [13] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices rebound under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [15] - **Core Logic**: Indonesia reduces nickel ore production targets, and domestic pure nickel inventory accumulates; stainless steel is in the off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see; pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory; the main operation range of nickel is [135000 - 153000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opens and closes higher, hitting a new high [18] - **Core Logic**: Supply is tight due to reduced production and uncertain resumption of production; demand is expected to increase as downstream prepares for the Spring Festival [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [17300 - 185000] [20]

中辉能化观点 乙二醇 ★ 谨慎追涨 供需改善，低估值有所修复。供应端，国内乙二醇装置整体开工负荷下滑 月底前后重启）、富德能源、盛虹炼化停车中；成都石化按计划检修、三 业三期降负至月底、河南能源延后重启），海外装置近期传闻有变动叠加 检修预期量偏高。需求端季节性走弱但未低于预期。港口库存回升，1-2 月存累库预期。供应端短期改善带来利多，乙二醇估值有所修复。 绝对估值不低，甲醇综合利润-234.5 元/吨，华东基差-53（-20）元/吨。供 体略有提负，马石油 3#Sarawak 停车检修，印尼 Kaltim72wt 装置 1.11 停 车检修 1 个月；伊朗目前仅 Bushehr、FPC、KPC3 套装置在运行；其他海 甲醇 ★ 谨慎追涨 应端方面，综合利润走弱，国内甲醇装置开工负荷高位下滑。海外装置整 外装置暂无大的变动。进口方面， 1 月到港量预计超 100 万吨，供应端压 力尚存。需求端略有走弱，烯烃需求方面，全国及浙江外采烯烃装置降负， 近期，山东恒通、江苏斯尔邦、浙江兴兴陆续停车；传统下游综合开工负 荷略有回升但整体仍处于季节性低位。成本支撑弱稳。整体而言，甲醇供 需略显宽松，地缘冲突升温叠加北美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the black sector showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of rebar fell 0.7% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil fell 0.3%, iron ore fell 2.1%, coke rose 0.3%, and coking coal fell 1.2%. The furnace material end showed weakness. In the off - season, the overall contradictions in the steel market were limited. The absolute level of rebar inventory was not high and the pressure was not great. The production of hot - rolled coil was significantly lower than the same period last year, which supported the gradual reduction of inventory and the continuous decline of pressure. The molten iron production was generally flat, the blast furnace profit was average, and steel mills had little enthusiasm for expansion. The overall performance of commodities was strong, and the Wenhua Commodity Index rose above 170 again, bringing external drive to the black sector [2]. - From the perspective of the black sector's own supply and demand, the support from raw materials is weakening, but the inventory pressure of coils is marginally reducing. The overall contradictions in the industry are relatively limited. The commodity index has risen to a key pressure level again, and there is a possibility of a breakthrough upwards in the later period. In the short term, the futures market may rebound supported by the overall bullish sentiment, but due to the general fundamental conditions, it may be difficult to have sustainability, and it is still judged to operate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - **Black Sector Futures Performance**: This week, the main contract of rebar fell 0.7% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil fell 0.3%, iron ore fell 2.1%, coke rose 0.3%, and coking coal fell 1.2% [2]. - **Steel Supply and Demand**: In the off - season, the overall contradictions in the steel market were limited. The absolute level of rebar inventory was not high and the pressure was not great. The production of hot - rolled coil was significantly lower than the same period last year, which supported the gradual reduction of inventory and the continuous decline of pressure. The molten iron production was generally flat, the blast furnace profit was average, and steel mills had little enthusiasm for expansion [2]. - **External Drive**: The overall performance of commodities was strong, and the Wenhua Commodity Index rose above 170 again, bringing external drive to the black sector [2]. Steel Production Data - **Monthly Data (December 2025)**: The monthly production of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative production was 836,040,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The monthly production of crude steel was 68,180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative production was 960,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The monthly production of steel was 115,310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative production was 1,446,120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The monthly import of steel was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%; the cumulative import was 6,060,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The monthly export of steel was 11,300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%; the cumulative export was 119,020,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [5]. - **Weekly Data (January 23, 2026)**: The weekly production of rebar was 1,995,500 tons, an increase of 92,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 1,855,200 tons, a decrease of 48,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 0%. The inventory was 4,521,000 tons, an increase of 140,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.44%. The weekly production of wire rod was 751,300 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 740,000 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5%. The inventory was 926,000 tons, an increase of 8,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The weekly production of hot - rolled coil was 3,054,100 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 3,099,600 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2%. The inventory was 3,577,800 tons, a decrease of 45,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The weekly production of cold - rolled coil was 884,300 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. The weekly consumption was 882,200 tons, a decrease of 37,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%. The inventory was 1,587,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.92%. The weekly production of medium and heavy plate was 1,510,700 tons, a decrease of 73,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.14%. The weekly consumption was 1,515,300 tons, a decrease of 66,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 0.97%. The inventory was 1,959,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.41%. The total weekly production of the five major steel products was 8,195,900 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The total weekly consumption was 8,100,000 tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.87%. The total inventory was 12,570,000 tons, an increase of 1,007,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [6]. Steel Demand Data - **Real Estate High - Frequency Data**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 10%. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land acquisition area of 100 cities was 19% [29]. - **Cement and Concrete Demand**: The cement出库量 was lower than the previous year for most of 2025, and it is still lower than the same period last year in 2026. The concrete delivery volume is the same as the same period last year [32]. - **Steel Export**: In December, the steel export volume was 11.3 million tons, close to the historical high level. The export profit of hot - rolled coil has rebounded slightly recently [38]. Steel Inventory and Spread Data - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil has been reduced, and the space for further contraction is relatively limited. The East China basis of rebar has risen to around 150, which is at a high level in the same period and may be difficult to strengthen further [3]. - **Rebar Basis**: The rebar basis has strengthened slightly this week, and the absolute level is relatively high. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot - rolled coil, which is also reflected in the month - on - month increase in rebar production. According to past rules, the basis is expected to narrow, but the convergence amplitude may be weaker than in previous years under the support of low inventory [51]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Basis**: The hot - rolled coil basis is running around - 0 and has strengthened slightly. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is continuously decreasing supported by the decline in production, which supports the basis [59]. - **Rebar Month - to - Month Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - to - month spread of rebar has been fluctuating in the negative range with limited fluctuations. The rebar inventory stopped decreasing this week, and the inventory increase is earlier from a lunar calendar perspective. After the production control in 2025 ended, the release of production capacity may lead to a relatively better supply of rebar, and the month - to - month spread is difficult to strengthen [66]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Month - to - Month Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - to - month spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 20 with little change [71]. - **Coil - Rebar Spread**: The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil has been reduced, and the space for further contraction is relatively limited [3].

沪铜周报 特朗普夺岛TACO，铜牛窄幅踏步 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2026-01-23 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】建议铜短期多单继续持有，移动逢高止盈，充分回调后仍是布局良机，长期依旧看 好铜，保持定力和耐心 【策略展望】 4 特朗普夺岛TCAO，欧美关系反复，美国经济数据强劲，基本面，全球铜显性库存高位，淡季 累库拖累铜价，短期多空激烈博弈，争夺10万关口，铜高位震荡，建议短期铜多单移动止盈， 关注30日均线支撑，长期铜多单保持定力。中长期看，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵 金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，对铜依旧看好。 短期沪铜关注区间【98500，105500】元/吨，伦铜关注区间【12500，13500】风险关注：中 美关系，铜矿干扰，需求不足 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 美国经济数据超预期，特朗普夺取格陵兰岛TACO -200 0 200 400 600 800 1 ...

碳酸锂周报： 供需双轮驱动，碳酸锂谨慎看涨 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2026.1.23 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国12月规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.8%，较上月加快0.6%，制造业表现亮眼；12月社会消费品零售总额同比增 5.6%，内需修复节奏偏温和； 12月出口金额达3577.5亿美元，创单月历史新高，同比增长6.6%，增速较上月提升0.7%；12月房 地产投资同比下降35.8%，多数城市库存去化，挤水分，政策促进止跌回稳，转型新模式；12月CPI同比上涨0.8%，核心CPI上涨 1.2%，涨幅连续4个月高于1%，为2024年3月以来最高。PPI同比下降1.9%，降幅收窄0.3%。海外市场，美国四季度GDP初值年化环 比增长3.3%，远超预期的2%，12月核心PCE指数同比增长2.9%，环比增长0.2%。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量小幅下滑，矿端采矿证问题持续发酵，叠加部分企业年底检修，市场供应偏紧。 【需求端】乘联分会发布数据，1月1-18日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售31.2万辆，同比去年1月同期下降16%，较上月同期下降 52%，今年以来累计零售31.2万 ...