Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes multiple agricultural product futures, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, presenting different views and trading strategies for each based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the next two weeks, it is expected to be in a large - range oscillation due to the combination of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. The main contract range is [2980, 3040] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also in a large - range oscillation with multiple long and short factors. The main contract range is [2620, 2750]. Attention should be paid to rapeseed planting weather, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The market outlook is bullish in the long - term, but there may be short - term adjustments. In July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil, which may suppress short - term prices. The main contract range is [8600, 8950] [1]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. Although the valuation is low, it is necessary to be cautious when short - selling. Consider gradually taking profit on previous short positions. The main contract range is [13400, 13700] [1]. - **Jujube**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. After the price fills the gap, there is significant upward pressure. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound driven by macro - sentiment. The main contract range is [10525, 11275] [1]. - **Live Pigs**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. In the short - term, there is support for the price, and the near - month contract is difficult to break through downward. In the medium - and long - term, pay attention to the intensity of capacity reduction. Consider gradually taking profit on near - month short positions and establishing long positions on far - month contracts after the spot price stabilizes. The main contract range is [13950, 14350] [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 808.5 million tons, up 10.60 million tons week - on - week and 22.85 million tons year - on - year. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 645.59 million tons, up 3.35 million tons week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory was 104.31 million tons, up 4.47 million tons week - on - week [3]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 3000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2977.71 yuan/ton, up 4.57 yuan or 0.15% [2]. - **Factors**: The neutral climate forecast and smooth US soybean planting weather, along with the inventory accumulation period in China until the end of September, contribute to weak fundamentals. However, Sino - US trade tariffs provide cost support [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 13.7 million tons, down 2.5 million tons week - on - week, and national rapeseed meal inventory was 66.54 million tons, down 1.33 million tons week - on - week [6]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 1.32% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2658.42 yuan/ton, down 30.53 yuan or 1.14% [4]. - **Factors**: The recovery of global rapeseed production, high domestic inventory, and low import due to high tariffs support the price. However, the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed and low spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal put pressure on the price [1]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national commercial inventory was 61.55 million tons, up 2.41 million tons week - on - week and 10.88 million tons year - on - year [8]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 8910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8990 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.03% [7]. - **Factors**: Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policies are bullish for consumption, but the possible inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices [1]. Cotton - **Production**: In the US, the new cotton growth is good despite slightly worse soil moisture. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit are expected to increase, with the national average yield per unit expected to rise by 2.5% and the output to reach over 7.4 million tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Domestic commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment of downstream finished products has slowed down recently [12]. - **Price**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 13585 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.48% from the previous day. The spot price was 15270 yuan/ton, down 288 yuan or 1.85% [9]. - **Factors**: Weak US cotton exports and reduced domestic demand due to slow replenishment of downstream products lead to a bearish outlook, but low valuation makes short - selling cautious [1]. Jujube - **Production**: The new - season jujube growth is good, and the expected production reduction is lower than previously thought [14]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10039 tons this week, down 51 tons week - on - week, but still higher than the same period last year [14]. - **Price**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10920 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan or 2.10% from the previous day [13]. - **Factors**: The weak fundamentals, limited implementation of the floor - price purchase order, and low demand in the off - season make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short - term, the accelerated出栏 of second - fattened pigs and partial culling of sows by large farms may increase supply. In the medium - term, the increase in the number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 indicates potential growth in出栏 in the second half of the year [18]. - **Price**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14055 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.07% [16]. - **Factors**: The rebound of the price difference between standard and fat pigs drives some second - fattening speculation, providing support for the near - month contract. However, high long - term capacity requires attention to capacity reduction [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Under the guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture for orderly slaughter, some enterprises' early slaughter and the release of previously second - fattened pigs increase supply pressure. However, the considerable spread between standard and fat pigs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the bottom of pig prices [4]. - Medium - term: Piglets showed an increasing trend from January to June, so the second half of 2025 is expected to see an increase in the pig market, and over - optimism should be avoided [4]. - Long - term: The "anti - involution" process takes time. If capacity control measures are implemented, the number of pig slaughter is expected to decline in about ten months, which may push up far - month pig prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - Pig prices: The national average pig price decreased by 0.94 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg this month. Prices in various regions also declined [3][9]. - Sow prices: The average spot price of culled sows decreased by 0.78 yuan to 10.29 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 0.95 yuan to 1,641.3 yuan/head [3][11]. - Piglet prices: The average price of 7kg piglets remained stable at 444.76 yuan/head, while the average price of 15kg piglets decreased by 48.27 yuan to 468.55 yuan/head [3][13]. 3.2 Key Data - Spot prices: Most prices showed changes, such as the national average price of 15kg piglets decreasing by 0.27 yuan to 36.37 yuan/kg [7]. - Short - term supply: The national pig inventory increased by 7160 thousand heads to 424470 thousand heads, and the average slaughter weight increased by 0.18 kg to 123.67 kg [7]. - Medium - term supply: The number of piglet births increased by 10.63 thousand heads to 554.02 thousand heads, and the survival rate remained at 92.7% [7]. - Long - term supply: The inventory of breeding sows increased by 10 thousand heads to 40430 thousand heads, and the culling volume of breeding sows increased by 3296 heads to 109413 heads [7]. - Demand side: The national pig slaughter rate increased by 0.05% to 26.8%, and the Shanghai Xijiao white - striped meat arrival volume decreased by 1100 heads to 5600 heads [7]. - Policy: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.03 to 5.8 [7]. - Cost: The total cost of purchasing piglets increased by 16.32 yuan to 1719.30 yuan/head, and the self - breeding cost decreased by 7.68 yuan to 1585.76 yuan/head [7]. - Profit: The self - breeding profit increased by 0.57 yuan to 29.21 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 0.43 yuan to - 193.12 yuan/head [7]. 3.3 Short - term Supply - Inventory and slaughter: The official inventory in June was 424470 thousand heads, and the planned slaughter of sample enterprises in July increased. The average slaughter weight increased, and the post - slaughter weight of white - striped pigs decreased [23]. - Speculation: The spread between standard and fat pigs widened, and the proportion of large pigs remained at a high level [25]. 3.4 Medium - term Supply - Piglets: In June, the piglet survival rate remained stable, the number of piglet births increased, and the piglet feed sales increased slightly. The pig supply in Q4 2025 is expected to be high [30]. 3.5 Long - term Supply - Breeding sows: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased, the culling volume increased slightly, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter decreased slightly [32]. 3.6 Demand - Slaughter and sales: Affected by the off - season, demand was weak. The slaughter rate increased slightly, the fresh - sales rate decreased, the daily slaughter volume decreased, and the slaughter profit increased [37]. 3.7 Cost Analysis - Feed: The corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased [44]. - Pigs: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding both decreased [46]. 3.8 Breeding Profit - Pigs: The self - breeding profit decreased, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased further [48]. 3.9 Price Ratio - The national pig - grain ratio decreased, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio remained high [50].

Report Overview - Report Title: 20250801 Cotton Series Monthly Report: Weakening De-stocking Expectations due to Negative Demand Feedback, Waiting for Cotton Prices to Find the Bottom in the Off-season [1] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Team: Agricultural Products Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The negative feedback in demand has weakened the de-stocking expectations, and it is necessary to wait for cotton prices to find the bottom in the off-season [1] - In the short term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bearish. For short positions, consider gradually reducing positions to take profits, and pay attention to the opportunity of low-cost long positions in far-month contracts after the market risk is further released [2] Summary by Directory Macro - According to the consensus of the new round of China-US economic and trade talks, both sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures as scheduled. Pay attention to Trump's final decision before August 12 [2] - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Recently, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has cooled sharply under the impact of Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks [2] - The domestic Politburo meeting continued to mention "making progress while maintaining stability", "timely increasing efforts", "implementing in detail", "boosting consumption", and "governing disorderly competition", and continued to promote the acceleration of the domestic cycle [2] Supply - **International**: The soil conditions in the main cotton-producing areas have weakened slightly. The non-drought rate has decreased to 93% under the influence of drought in the Midwest, but it is still much higher than the same period. The latest good-to-excellent rate of US cotton is 55%, down from 57% the previous week and up from 49% the same period last year. The supply pressure in the US cotton area has weakened. In India, 9.86 million hectares of new cotton have been planted, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%. The spot cotton price has stopped rising and fallen, and the CCI has cumulatively auctioned and sold 1.22 million tons of cotton. In Brazil, the latest harvest progress has reached 21.7%, with the harvest progress in the main producing state of Bahia at 40% and that in the state of Mato Grosso at 12.6% [2] - **Domestic**: Xinjiang cotton has entered the flowering and boll-forming stage. The actual sown area of cotton is 45.803 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. It is estimated that the yield per mu of new cotton in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and the guaranteed output is expected to be raised to 7.4 million tons. The high-temperature weather in August is expected to gradually improve compared with July, and the probability of weather speculation is low. In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 10,000 tons from the previous month. The import volume of cotton yarn in June was 110,000 tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons from the previous month. The total import volume of cotton resources was basically the same as that in May, and no quota policy has been introduced [2] Inventory - **Domestic**: The total industrial and commercial inventory is slightly lower than that of the same period last year by about 40,000 tons, and the inventory in Xinjiang is lower than that of the same period by about 200,000 tons. It is estimated that the national commercial inventory by early September will be comparable to the average level of the past five years. Pay attention to the possible slowdown in the recent de-stocking speed. At the finished product end, the replenishment of cotton yarn and grey cloth has slowed down significantly this week, and the negative feedback expectation after the weakening of the downstream replenishment willingness is gradually reflected in the market [2] - **International**: In May 2025, the inventory value of clothing and clothing fabrics of US wholesalers was $28.636 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.73% and a month-on-month increase of 0.49%. The inventory value of retailers in May was $58.056 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.47% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.49%. The overall inventory level of US clothing is still relatively neutral, and the inventory at the retail end needs further de-stocking [2] Demand - **Domestic**: The orders of textile enterprises have dropped to the lowest level in the past five years. The operating rates of weaving mills and spinning mills have accelerated their decline and are lower than those of the same period. The cotton cloth transactions in the Light Textile City have been running at a recent low level. The overall price center of clothing fabrics and accessories in the Keqiao market has improved, which may indicate that the foreign trade situation is not overly pessimistic. In June 2025, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing reached $143.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The cumulative export value of textiles in June reached $70.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The cumulative export of clothing in June reached $73.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. Overall, affected by the slowdown in the export growth rate of textiles, the export growth rate of clothing and textiles has further slowed down. The US market performed slightly better than last month, and the ASEAN and EU markets were relatively stable. Pay attention to whether the extension of China-US tariffs can be finally confirmed [2] - **International**: The soil moisture in the main producing areas of US cotton has slightly deteriorated but is still suitable for the growth of new cotton. The trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing, and the export demand for US cotton in the second half of the year still needs to be viewed with caution [2] Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (July) - **Production**: In the 2025/26 season, the global production is expected to increase by 311,000 tons month-on-month to 25.78 million tons. Among them, China's production is expected to increase by 218,000 tons month-on-month to 6.749 million tons, the US production is expected to increase by 131,000 tons month-on-month to 3.048 million tons, and Pakistan's production is expected to decrease by 44,000 tons to 1.089 million tons [3] - **Consumption**: In the 2025/26 season, the global consumption is expected to increase by 78,000 tons month-on-month to 25.718 million tons. Among them, Pakistan's consumption is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 2.373 million tons, and the remaining small countries will share the rest [4] - **Trade**: In the 2025/26 season, the global imports and exports are expected to decline slightly by 20,000 - 30,000 tons month-on-month. Among them, China's imports are expected to decrease by 152,000 tons month-on-month to 1.263 million tons, and Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 131,000 tons to 1.284 million tons [4] - **Ending Inventory**: In the 2025/26 season, the global ending inventory is expected to increase by 113,000 tons month-on-month to 16.833 million tons. Among them, China's ending inventory is expected to increase by 11,000 tons to 8.07 million tons, and the US ending inventory is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 1.001 million tons [4] Cotton Futures and Spot - The cotton price rose and then fell within the month, and the basis level remained high [5] Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - The futures price of cotton yarn rose and then fell within the month, and the basis performance was weaker than that of cotton [12] Supply Details - The actual sown area of US cotton is higher than expected, and the drought in the Midwest has pushed the good-to-excellent rate to decline slightly. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, down from 57% the previous week and up from 49% the same period last year. The non-drought rate in the main cotton-producing areas of the US decreased by 3% to 93%, which is 45% higher than the same period. The drought situation has slightly increased, but the soil moisture is still at the best level in the past five years, and the abandonment rate has dropped to 14.427% [14][15] - The de-stocking of raw materials has been relatively fast, but the replenishment of gauze has slowed down significantly this week. This week, the national industrial and commercial inventory decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons, lower than the same period by 37,600 tons; the commercial inventory in Xinjiang decreased to 1.7257 million tons within the month, lower than the same period by 204,600 tons; the commercial inventory in the inland decreased to 768,100 tons this week, lower than the same period by 155,100 tons. At the finished product end, the available days of pure cotton yarn inventory increased by 0.04 days to 31.86 days, the terminal grey cloth inventory increased by 0.28 days to 30.74 days, and the inventory of polyester-cotton yarn in the factory increased by 0.8 days to 28.58 days [16][17] - In June, the import of cotton resources in China did not continue to shrink. In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 10,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of about 82.1%; from January to June, China imported about 460,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of about 74.3%. According to customs statistics, in June 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 0.1% and a month-on-month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 10%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 670,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to June 2025), the cumulative import of cotton yarn was about 1.17 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.18% [18][19] - The de-stocking speed of warehouse receipts has accelerated slightly, and the high-sugar warehouse receipts limit the short squeeze. As of July 31, there were 8,940 registered warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou cotton, a decrease of 1,271 within the month, and 348 valid forecasts. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 9,288, equivalent to 371,500 tons of cotton. Among the warehouse receipts, the cotton resources from Eastern Xinjiang account for a relatively large proportion this year, and the problem of high sugar content in some warehouse receipts continues to limit their outflow under the current tight inventory expectations [20][21] Demand Details - The operating rates of spinning and weaving mills have accelerated their decline, and the losses of textile enterprises have deepened further. This week, the operating rate of spinning mills decreased by 1.9% to 67.6%, lower than the same period by 2.9%; the operating rate of weaving mills decreased by 0.7% to 38.2%, lower than the same period by 1.4%. The year-on-year difference in operating rates has gradually widened compared with the same period last year. The orders of textile enterprises decreased by 0.33 days to 6.94 days, lower than the same period by 2.73 days, and the difference has further expanded compared with last week. From the perspective of spinning profits, the spot profit of the mainstream yarn count within the week dropped to -1,938 yuan/ton, and the expected profit per ton of enterprises in Xinjiang dropped to less than 100 yuan [22][23] - The cotton cloth transactions in the Light Textile City have continued to weaken, and the prices of fabrics and accessories in the Keqiao market have shown a differentiated trend within the week. In the Light Textile City, the latest total transaction volume this week increased by 24,000 meters to 4.892 million meters, and the cotton cloth transaction volume decreased by 30,000 meters to 240,000 meters. In the Keqiao market, the price of accessories increased by 2.17 to 116.44 this week, and the fabric price decreased by 0.19 to 110.66 [24][26] - In June, the export of clothing and textiles decreased slightly year-on-year, and the performance of textiles continued to be weak. In terms of monthly values, the export of textile and clothing in June was $27.31 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. Among them, the export of textiles was $12.05 billion, a decrease of 1.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.6%, and the export of clothing was $15.27 billion, an increase of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 12.4%. In terms of cumulative values, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing in China reached $143.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The cumulative export value of textiles in June reached $70.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The cumulative export of clothing in June reached $73.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. Overall, the year-on-year export growth rates from April to June were all lower than that of the national goods trade. The main reason for the slowdown in export growth is that the US "reciprocal tariff" policy has had a greater impact on the textile and clothing industry chain. Although the "rush to export" of some enterprises has promoted the growth of clothing export data in May and June, the slowdown in exports to the US from ASEAN and South Asia has led to the drag of textiles on the overall export of clothing and textiles [28][30] - The export to the US has improved slightly, while the exports to ASEAN and the EU have shown a slowdown trend. In June, China's clothing exports to the US reached $3.189 billion, an increase of $607 million from the previous month but lower than the same period by $239 million; China's textile exports to the US reached $4.428 billion, an increase of $973 million from the previous month but lower than the same period by $339 million. China's clothing exports to the EU reached $3.092 billion, an increase of $425 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $4 million; China's textile exports to the EU reached $4.629 billion, an increase of $461 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $124 million. China's clothing exports to ASEAN reached $1.12 billion, an increase of $55 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $252 million; China's textile exports to ASEAN reached $3.788 billion, a decrease of $162 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $361 million [31][36] - In June, the PMI of the cotton textile industry weakened, and the demand-related indicators continued to weaken. In June, the PMI of the cotton textile industry decreased by 1.95% to 47.71%, remaining below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months. In terms of demand, the PMI of new orders increased by 3.15% to 44.68%, and the PMI of operating rates increased by 1.04% to 52.13%. In terms of inventory and production, the PMI of cotton yarn inventory increased by 12.74% to 63.83%, and the cotton inventory increased by 3.29% to 48.94%. The weakening of demand and the inventory accumulation trend at the terminal continued [37][38] CFTC Position Data - The net short positions of non-commercial and fund investors have rebounded slightly [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For manganese silicon, the market in August will mainly be characterized by oscillatory adjustments, with strong cost support, so short - selling should be done cautiously [1][4] - For ferrosilicon, there is significant inventory pressure, the fundamentals are weakening, and prices are under pressure [1][52] Summary by Related Catalogs Manganese Silicon 1. Market Review - In July, the futures price of manganese silicon showed a generally strong trend, reaching the daily limit at the end of the month with a maximum increase to 6414 yuan/ton, then quickly falling back. As of July 28, 2025, the closing price of the main manganese silicon contract was 6028 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 6.92% from the beginning of the month. The spot price in Jiangsu was 6050 yuan/ton, and the basis (+22) remained nearly flat [8] 2. Supply - In July, production and the operating rate continued to rise, with factories resuming production in both northern and southern production areas. The daily output in Inner Mongolia was 14,300 tons, maintaining a high - level for the same period. In Yunnan, supply increased significantly during the wet season, with the operating rate exceeding 85%. The estimated output in July was about 815,000 tons [3] 3. Demand - In July, the weekly output of hot metal remained above 2.4 million tons, but the output of rebar did not increase significantly and remained at a low level for the same period. The procurement price of manganese - silicon alloy by a leading steel mill in July was 5850 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 14,600 tons. The tender price was in line with market expectations, and the procurement volume was slightly higher than that of the previous year [3] 4. Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 205,000 tons, a decrease of 17,300 tons from the beginning of the month. As of July 28, the total number of warehouse receipts was 77,600, a decrease of 10,500 from the beginning of the month. The delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 390,800 tons, but the inventory level was still at an absolute high [3] 5. Manganese Ore - In June, China's total manganese ore imports were 2.684 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%, with the reduction mainly from Gabon and Ghana. In July, the shipments and arrivals from the three major countries increased significantly, while the port clearance volume continued to decline. It is expected that the inventory of manganese ore at ports will increase at a faster rate in August [3] 6. Cost and Profit - The production cost in production areas has increased, with the cost in the north above 5800 yuan/ton and in the south above 6100 yuan/ton. Short - term profit has recovered significantly, but it is still in an inverted state compared with the spot price. Coke has started the fifth round of price increases, and electricity prices in some northern and southern production areas have been adjusted [4] 7. Future Outlook - In the short term, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In the medium term, supply and demand may gradually return to a loose state. The firm price of raw materials provides strong support for manganese silicon. The market in August will mainly be characterized by oscillatory adjustments. The current commodity valuation is still at a historical low, and the supply security of raw materials is still worthy of attention. Short - selling should be done cautiously. The reference range for the main contract is [5666, 6226] [4] Ferrosilicon 1. Market Review - In July, the futures price of ferrosilicon showed a generally strong trend, reaching the daily limit at the end of the month, then falling back after reaching the high. As of July 28, 2025, the closing price of the main ferrosilicon contract was 5840 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 10.82% from the beginning of the month. The spot price in Jiangsu was 5850 yuan/ton, and the basis (+10) remained nearly flat [55] 2. Supply - In July, the weekly supply continued to rise, but the national operating rate was still at a low level for the same period. The daily output in Ningxia was still over 4000 tons, while the supply levels in other production areas were relatively low. The estimated national output in July was 440,000 - 450,000 tons [51] 3. Demand - In the short term, the profits of steel mills still supported the high - level output of hot metal, but the demand for ferrosilicon showed signs of weakening. The procurement price of ferrosilicon alloy by a leading steel mill in July was 5600 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 2700 tons. The tender volume increased significantly. Some steel mills have started the August ferrosilicon tender. In terms of non - steel demand, the domestic magnesium market has been strong recently. From January to June, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports were 200,000 tons, a decrease of 22,500 tons (a decline of 10.11%) compared with the same period last year [51] 4. Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 65,600 tons, an increase of 3500 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 17,300 tons from the beginning of the month. As of July 31, the total number of warehouse receipts was 22,100, an increase of 12,900 from the beginning of the month. The delivery inventory (including forecasts) increased to 113,300 tons, reaching a high level for the same period [51] 5. Cost and Profit - The production cost in production areas has decreased slightly, and short - term profit has recovered significantly. The production cost in Ningxia is 5270 yuan/ton (the lowest), with a spot profit of over 300 yuan/ton; the production cost in Gansu is 5539 yuan/ton (the highest), with a spot profit of over 60 yuan/ton. The price of semi - coke first decreased and then increased this month, and the price of lump coal has recently risen, driving the semi - coke market to be strong. The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai have been adjusted [52] 6. Future Outlook - The current fundamentals are weakening marginally, and the cost side still provides support. Factory inventories have accumulated again, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased significantly this month. The overall inventory pressure is large, suppressing the spot price. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the overall sentiment change in the black series and market news disturbances. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5466, 5926] [52]

宏观金银月报 国内政策定调，海外关税落地，8月份回归基本面 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 2025年8月1日 王维芒 资格编号：Z0000148 摘要 【市场和海外宏观】本月资本市场受中国反内卷定调及抑制投机需求等情绪影响，工业 品大幅冲高后回落。美国通胀预期较高，其他国家通胀表现分化，就业市场温和，但消费 者信心走高。关税基本落地，整体好于4月份结果 【国内经济表现】7月国内经济数据比较分化，工业数据尚可但是投资增速放缓，房地产 没有止跌制造业PMI回落。信贷需求宽松，社融托底力量来自政府专项债。政策短反内卷和 消费刺激齐头并进，不过月底大会为反内卷降温，后续关注政策连续性。 【金银策略】黄金短期受避险退潮冲击，白银受黄金、基本金属影响较大。长期来看， 央行购金、美元信用弱化及通胀风险仍构成战略配置价值。黄金价格调整，短期关注760附 近支撑，短期白银跌回前期震荡调整区间8700-9000，长线多头趋势上没有破坏，关注止跌 企稳之后再多单介入。 【风险提示】关税进程波折，美联储不降息（投资有风险 入市需谨慎） 2 1 国内资产价格演绎"反内卷" 2 各国通胀分化，指标喜忧参 ...

PVC月报： 社会库存持续累库，反弹偏空 | 能源化工团队 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 郭建锋 | | F03126846 | | | 何 | 慧 | Z0011420 | | | 郭艳鹏 | | Z0021323 | | | 李 | 倩 | F03134406 | 时间：2025/7/31 | 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 基本面持续累库，反弹偏空 【下月展望】 6月底以来社会库存累库拐点显现，且近期累库速度加快，基本面弱势格局难改。展望8月， 根据季节性特征，社会库存通常在二至四季度处于去库周期，但今年属于PVC扩产大年，预计 延续7月累库格局。一方面，今年计划投产250万吨新产能（同比+9%），扩产速度创十年新高， 年内已兑现170万吨，耀望及海湾合计50万吨计划8-9月兑现。此外，8月仅内蒙君正、新中贾 等装置存检修计划，由于前期反内卷刺激，氯碱综合利润已经修复至同期中性偏高位置，企 业超预期检修概率不大，存量及增量装置均承压运行，供给充沛。另一方面，1-6月表观消费 量累计同比-3%，年中政治局会议首次未提楼市，地产销售面 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - Trump's copper import tariff policy changed unexpectedly, causing COMEX copper to plummet by over 20%. The Fed's hawkish stance weakened the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded. The Politburo meeting did not meet the market's expectations of strong stimulus policies. Affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, China's July manufacturing PMI declined, and market sentiment turned cautious. Fundamentally, there is a co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. During the off - season of demand, inventories at home and abroad have increased, dragging down copper prices. In the short term, Shanghai copper is under pressure and falling to test the support of the lower moving average. It is recommended that new speculators wait for the callback and go long at a low price (77,500 - 78,000). Upstream industrial enterprises should wait for the rebound and sell hedging at a high price to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, copper is still optimistic as an important strategic metal in the Sino - US game. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 80,000], and for LME copper is [9,500, 9,900] US dollars/ton [6][58]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Situation US Policy and Dollar Index - Trump announced a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, but excluded core upstream products such as electrolytic copper and copper concentrate. COMEX copper plummeted by 20%. The Fed's hawkish stance after the July interest rate meeting completely dispelled the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The probability of a September interest rate cut dropped from 65% to 45%. The US dollar index rebounded to 100, with a monthly increase of 3.5%, putting pressure on copper prices [8][11]. China's Economic Data - The Politburo meeting on July 30 did not introduce strong stimulus policies, and the market's expectations were dashed. Affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4. The LPR for 1 - year and 5 - year loans remained unchanged, and the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut policy restricted China's monetary policy space. Market risk appetite declined [14]. Group 3: Shanghai Copper Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - In 2025, global copper mines faced continuous disruptions, and copper smelting capacity expanded, leading to a shortage of copper raw materials and record - low copper processing fees. In June, China imported 2349700 tons of copper concentrate, a year - on - year increase of 1.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June, the cumulative import of copper concentrate was 14.777 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.23%. The sample smelting start - up rate of the electrolytic copper industry in July was 88.19%, a month - on - month increase of 2.43%. In June, the domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. It is estimated that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will increase by 15500 tons month - on - month and 122200 tons year - on - year [31][35]. Demand Side - From January to June, power grid engineering investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. New energy vehicle production was 6.872 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. However, from July to August, affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, it was the traditional off - season for terminal consumption, and the start - up rate of downstream copper products declined. In June, the start - up rate of copper product enterprises was 63.08%, and the copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [38]. Inventory - During the off - season of demand, overseas inventories increased. COMEX copper inventory increased by 45776 tons to 257900 tons, and LME copper inventory increased by 46950 tons to 138200 tons. As of July 31, China's electrolytic copper social inventory was 119300 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons from the beginning of the month, and the SHFE copper inventory was 73423 tons, a decrease of 11166 tons from the beginning of the month [45]. Group 4: Monthly Summary and Outlook Market Situation - Macroscopically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, the US dollar index rebounded, and the US copper import tariff policy deviated from market expectations. Domestically, the Politburo meeting did not introduce strong stimulus policies, and market risk appetite declined. Fundamentally, in the short term, the contradiction in copper supply and demand lies in inventory accumulation during the off - season and inventory return pressure. In the medium term, it is the co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. In the long term, it is the uncertainty of demand caused by global trade wars and Sino - US confrontation versus the explosive demand for copper in green power and new energy vehicles [57]. Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai copper is under pressure and falling. It is recommended that new speculators wait for the callback and go long at a low price (77,500 - 78,000). Upstream industrial enterprises should wait for the rebound and sell hedging at a high price. In the long term, copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 80,000], and for LME copper is [9,500, 9,900] US dollars/ton [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bullish view on lithium carbonate [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market is influenced by the "anti-involution" concept, with a stark contrast between strong expectations and weak reality. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi has become a focal point of market speculation. Overseas imports have declined for two consecutive months, alleviating the overall supply-side pressure. Although the fundamental changes are lagging and July was in a surplus and inventory accumulation pattern, the upstream inventory has gradually shifted to the intermediate links driven by the positive feedback between futures and spot markets. The market is gradually returning to rationality. Currently, the production schedule of cathode factories in August has slightly increased. If there are production cuts or suspensions in Jiangxi lithium mines, there may be a slight shortage of lithium carbonate, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Overall, there are no obvious negative fundamental disturbances, and it is difficult for prices to experience a trend decline. Attention should be paid to the issue of mining licenses in the future [78] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, lower than the expected and previous value of 49.7, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity compared to the previous month. The production index and new order index were 50.5% and 49.4% respectively, down 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The Politburo meeting set the tone for the economic work in the second half of the year, with the main core content focusing on "implementing and refining", "boosting consumption", and "governing disorderly competition". The introduction of incremental policies was relatively limited, and strongly expected varieties saw significant corrections. The impact of Sino-US tariffs has gradually weakened. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and Powell did not give a clear indication of a rate cut in September, still believing that tariffs and inflation are full of uncertainties, which cooled the market's expectation of a rate cut in September [3] Supply Side - The estimated output of lithium carbonate in July was about 85,000 tons, a slight increase from the previous month. In July, the futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate rose in tandem, and the hedging profit on the futures market stimulated the resumption of production by previously reduced or suspended production enterprises. China imported 17,700 tons of lithium carbonate in June, a 16% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year decline. As of July 25, the output of lithium carbonate was 18,548 tons, a week-on-week increase of 235 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 45.18%, a week-on-week increase of 0.57 percentage points [3][13] Demand Side - According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 789,000 units, a 15% year-on-year increase but a 17% month-on-month decrease compared to the same period last July. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 54.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year reached 6.258 million units, a 31% year-on-year increase. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 816,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase but a 20% month-on-month decrease compared to the same period last July. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 54.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 7.264 million units, a 35% year-on-year increase. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in six European countries in June was 220,000 units, with a cumulative year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 22% and 16% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the US in June was 110,000 units, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2% and a month-on-month decrease of 11% [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,726 tons, an increase of 3,379 tons from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 51,958 tons, a decrease of 6,932 tons from the previous month; the inventory of downstream material factories was 43,880 tons, an increase of 3,383 tons from the previous month; and the inventory in other links was 45,888 tons, an increase of 3,379 tons from the previous month. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 5,545 tons, a decrease of 17,083 tons from the previous month [4] Cost and Profit - As of July 31, the average industry cost was 62,821 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1,247 yuan/ton. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was quoted at $515/ton, a month-on-month increase of $115/ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $774/ton, a month-on-month increase of $152/ton; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,130 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 545 yuan/ton. The profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 8,459 yuan/ton, a month-on-month recovery of 9,129 yuan/ton [5] Price Overview of the Lithium Battery Industry - The prices of various lithium battery products showed different degrees of increase or decrease in July compared to June. For example, the price of 6% CIF spodumene increased by 24.34% to $774/ton, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.65% to 69,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.86% to 68,000 yuan/ton [6] Market Review in July - As of July 31, the LC2509 contract closed at 68,280 yuan/ton, a 9.67% increase from the previous month. The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 69,000 yuan/ton, a 12.7% increase from the previous month, and the basis changed from a large discount to a premium. The trading volume of the main contract was 230,000 lots. In July, affected by the macro "anti-involution" expectation, the market's bullish sentiment was high. The sudden shutdown of Qinghai Salt Lake and the ongoing fermentation of the issue of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi boosted the upward trend of lithium carbonate prices. However, at the end of the month, as the meeting concluded, the market trading gradually returned to the fundamentals, and the price returned to a reasonable level [7] Production and Supply - As of the end of June, the national lithium carbonate production capacity was 2,148,620 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The monthly operating rate was 45.45%, a 5.29 percentage point increase from the previous month. The production in June was 80,962 tons, a 10.9% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year increase. In June, the lithium carbonate production reached a new high, exceeding 80,000 tons. Qinghai Salt Lake entered the seasonal production peak, and the overall operating rate of enterprises increased as some new production capacities were successfully put into operation. In addition, toll processing enterprises resumed production by reducing processing fees. As of July 25, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,548 tons, a week-on-week increase of 235 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 45.18%, a week-on-week increase of 0.57 percentage points [12][13] Import and Export - In June 2025, China imported 17,700 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% month-on-month and 9.6% year-on-year decrease. Among them, 11,900 tons were imported from Chile, a 11.5% month-on-month and 24.3% year-on-year decrease, and 5,094 tons were imported from Argentina, a 23.1% month-on-month decrease but a 48.3% year-on-year increase. The continuous decline in domestic imports in May and June will lead to a decrease in the arrival volume in July - August, alleviating the supply-side pressure marginally. In June 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 576,000 tons, a 4.8% month-on-month decrease, equivalent to 46,400 tons of LCE. The import volume from Australia decreased significantly, while the import volumes from Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Nigeria increased to varying degrees [17][20] Terminal Demand - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million units respectively, a 26.4% and 26.7% year-on-year increase, and a -0.2% and +1.7% month-on-month change respectively. The penetration rate was 45.8%. The new energy vehicle market continued to grow in June, benefiting from the trade-in subsidy policy and promotional activities launched by various car companies. However, due to the high penetration rate of new energy vehicles for three consecutive months, the month-on-month growth rate slowed down. In June, China's power battery loading volume was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% month-on-month and 35.9% year-on-year increase. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 10.7 GWh, a 2.0% month-on-month increase but a 3.4% year-on-year decrease; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 47.4 GWh, a 1.9% month-on-month and 49.7% year-on-year increase [27] Storage Market - According to TrendForce data, the new energy storage tender market continued to be booming in June, with the new tender volume reaching 9.05 GW/53.19 GWh, a 58%/282% year-on-year and 23%/147% month-on-month increase. The average energy storage duration was 5.9 hours. In terms of price, the average price of 2-hour energy storage systems was 0.641 yuan/Wh, a 16.55% month-on-month increase, and the highest price was 0.792 yuan/Wh. The average price was affected by some high quotes. The average price of 4-hour energy storage systems decreased by 9.75% month-on-month, reaching a record low of 0.432 yuan/Wh. The economic benefits of the energy storage market still face challenges [32] Digital Demand - In the second quarter of 2025, the global smartphone shipments reached 295.2 million units, a 1% year-on-year decline, the first decline in six consecutive quarters. In June, the smartphone production was 108.27 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate turning positive to 8.40%. Globally, Samsung maintained its market-leading position this quarter, accounting for 19% of the market share with its Galaxy A series. Apple ranked second, accounting for 16%, and Xiaomi performed stably this quarter, accounting for 15% of the market share. Affected by the tariff risk, the consumer electronics market remained relatively stable. Most manufacturers reduced production targets to avoid inventory backlogs, but the US market still maintained a relatively high inventory to avoid tariff uncertainties [33] Supply and Demand of Lith-ium Iron Phosphate - As of July 25, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 69,853 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 40 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 61.82%, unchanged from the previous week. This week, the production rhythm of lithium iron phosphate enterprises remained relatively stable. The demand from the power end decreased slightly, while the demand from the energy storage market drove an unexpected increase, but the increase was limited [36] Ternary System Materials - The incremental orders of ternary materials are concentrated in leading enterprises, and production is based on sales [38] Other Cathode Materials - During the off-peak season of terminal demand, the internal operating rates of other cathode materials are differentiated [46] Inventory and Cost - As of July 31, the total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry was 141,726 tons, an increase of 3,379 tons from the previous month, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 5,545 tons, a 17,083-ton decrease from the previous month. This month, the total lithium carbonate inventory continued to increase and reached a new high, but with the increase in speculative demand, the upstream inventory was transferred to the middle and downstream links. At the end of the month, the warehouse receipts faced centralized cancellation, and the decline rate of this round of warehouse receipts was significantly faster. As of July 31, the price of African SC 5% lithium ore was quoted at $515/ton, a month-on-month increase of $115/ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $774/ton, a month-on-month increase of $152/ton; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,130 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 545 yuan/ton. The ore price closely followed the lithium salt price, the auction transaction prices of overseas mines were generally high, the market trading recovered, and traders accelerated shipments [54][56] Cost and Profit Analysis - As of July 25, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 62,821 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 865 yuan, and the industry profit was 8,459 yuan/ton, a week-on-week recovery of 5,193 yuan. This week, the raw material price increased rapidly, with a涨幅 exceeding 10%, providing some support for the lower price of lithium carbonate. The futures price was greatly affected by the policy side, and the bullish sentiment of funds was strong. After the synchronous increase of futures and spot prices, the industry profit recovered rapidly. As of July 25, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 61,221 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 79 yuan, and the industry profit was 353 yuan/ton, a week-on-week recovery of 858 yuan. This week, the strong price increase of lithium carbonate and raw materials drove the bullish sentiment in the lithium hydroxide market. The price of lithium hydroxide ended the downward trend and continued to increase, and the industry profit recovered. As of July 25, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 34,402 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1,188 yuan/ton, and the loss was 932 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The rapid increase in the price of raw material lithium carbonate led to an increase in the quotation of material factories, but the pricing power still lies with downstream battery cell factories, and the price increase was limited. Material factories mainly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and the procurement sentiment was not high. The cost transmission from the upstream was blocked, and the profit space of downstream industries was under pressure [60][62][65] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply-demand gap of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025. The overall supply and demand situation is relatively complex, with fluctuations in production, imports, and demand in different months, and the inventory also shows corresponding changes [77] Views and Strategies - The market is gradually returning to rationality. Currently, the production schedule of cathode factories in August has slightly increased. If there are production cuts or suspensions in Jiangxi lithium mines, there may be a slight shortage of lithium carbonate, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Overall, there are no obvious negative fundamental disturbances, and it is difficult for prices to experience a trend decline. Attention should be paid to the issue of mining licenses in the future. The unilateral strategy is to participate in long positions at low prices, with a reference range of [65,000, 77,000]. In the long term, the market remains in a surplus pattern, and production enterprises can conduct hedging on the futures market when the price rebounds according to their own profit levels [78][79]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report holds a cautiously bearish view on the steel market in August [4]. 2. Core View - In July, the black - series market was dominated by the "anti - involution" theme, but towards the end of the month, market sentiment cooled, and the trading logic may shift to supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is stable due to profit support, while the demand is weak, and it is difficult for exports to maintain strength. Therefore, the market is likely to decline rather than rise [3][4]. - For August, it is advisable to short at high prices, and industrial customers can hedge. Also, one can consider building a long - rebar and short - hot - rolled coil position [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - In July, the market was led by the "anti - involution" theme. After relevant policies were announced, coking coal drove the black - series up. However, at the end of the month, the market回调 due to the lack of incremental stimulus policies and poor PMI performance. In July, the main contract of rebar rose 6.9%, hot - rolled coil rose 8.6%, iron ore rose 8.9%, coke rose 14%, and coking coal rose 26.7% [8]. 3.2. Money and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally continued to rise, and the M1 - M2 gap kept expanding. In June, RMB loans increased significantly to 2.24 trillion, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 slightly decreased [11]. 3.3. Price Index - In June, CPI was 0.1 with little change, and PPI was - 3.6, down 0.3 from May, indicating a deflationary environment. In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 month - on - month, lower than market expectations [14]. 3.4. Monthly Steel Data - In the first half of 2025, crude steel production decreased by 3% year - on - year. Pig iron production decreased by 0.8%, with a smaller decline than crude steel, suggesting a lower proportion of scrap steel in the converter process. Steel exports increased significantly, with an increase of 4750000 tons in steel exports and 4420000 tons in billet exports [15]. 3.5. Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of August 1, 2025, the cumulative year - on - year data of production and apparent consumption of the five major steel products were basically in line, indicating a relatively balanced supply - demand situation. Inventories were lower than the same period last year [16][17]. 3.6. Steel Production - Since this year, steel mills have had good profits and high production enthusiasm. Production is expected to remain stable, unlike the significant decline in the same period last year [20]. 3.7. Steel Production Profit - Currently, blast furnace profits are generally good, with a production profit of 200 - 300 yuan/ton for rebar and hot - rolled coil. Electric - arc furnace profits have improved, with valley - electricity operations basically profitable and flat - electricity operations near the break - even point [21]. 3.8. Steel Demand - The demand side is relatively weak. Construction steel transactions have remained at around 100000 tons without improvement. Real estate data shows that future housing construction demand is difficult to improve significantly. Fixed - asset investment growth has slowed down, and infrastructure investment growth has also declined. Although the issuance of special local bonds is expected to accelerate in the third quarter, the impact on physical volume is limited [42][46][55]. 3.9. Steel Export - With the rise of domestic steel prices, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed, export profits have decreased significantly, and future exports may be negatively affected [67]. 3.10. Steel Inventory - During the July price increase, the rebar basis changed little and even increased slightly for the October contract. The hot - rolled coil basis continued to decline. The rebar 10 - 1 spread gradually decreased in July, and the hot - rolled coil 10 - 1 spread remained in a contango structure at a low level [82][85][91]. 3.11. Steel Price Spread - The spot spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil has weakened, while the futures spread has reached a relatively high level this year, showing a certain divergence. Considering the unfavorable export situation, one can consider building a long - rebar and short - hot - rolled coil position [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - In August, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, leading to a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Prices are likely to fluctuate and trend weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the futures and spot prices of iron ore fluctuated and trended strongly. As of July 30, the futures price of the main contract increased by 73.5 yuan/ton month - on - month [5]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Mainstream Mines**: The shipments of the four major mines are expected to rebound in August, with an estimated month - on - month increase of about 258.5 million tons. Vale is expected to ship 27.1 million tons in August, a month - on - month increase of 3.5 million tons; Rio Tinto is expected to ship 28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 235 million tons; BHP is expected to ship 23.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 75 million tons; FMG is expected to ship 16.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95 million tons [25][28][30]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable overall. In August, the estimated shipment is 43.2 million tons, a decrease of about 40 million tons [33]. - **Domestic Mines**: The domestic iron concentrate production in July is estimated to be 20.85 million tons, and the production in August is expected to be 21.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30 million tons [36]. - **Total Supply**: The global supply in August is expected to increase by about 248.5 million tons month - on - month [6]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: According to the statistics of Mysteel, the national pig iron production in July is estimated to be 74.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the blast furnace hot metal production is expected to be 74.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 million tons. The demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to increase slightly by 5 million tons [6][18][22]. - **Overseas Demand**: Except for China, the daily average pig iron production is decreasing. In August, the pig iron production is estimated to decrease slightly by 62,000 tons, and the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease slightly by about 10 million tons [6][21][22]. - **Global Demand**: In August, the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease by about 5 million tons globally [6][22]. 3.4 Steel Mill Profit - In July, the profits of long - and short - process steel mills reached a high level, and short - process steel mills turned losses into profits. At the end of July, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a year - on - year increase of 1.13 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a year - on - year increase of 48.49 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 2.4223 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons [9][13][15]. 3.5 Inventory - At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. In August, the inventory is expected to accumulate, but the overall inventory accumulation rate will slow down [40]. - Steel mills mainly replenish inventory as needed, with narrow inventory fluctuations and a stable inventory - to - consumption ratio [42]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Table | Date | Supply (million tons) | Demand (million tons) | Export (million tons) | Supply - Demand Surplus (million tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 01 | 127.3078 | 122.0185 | 1.7907 | 3.4987 | | 2025 - 02 | 102.2437 | 123.5627 | 2.2287 | - 23.5478 | | 2025 - 03 | 130.8431 | 126.6254 | 1.9641 | 2.2536 | | 2025 - 04 | 128.6777 | 130.4944 | 1.8359 | - 3.6526 | | 2025 - 05 | 132.3421 | 132.7831 | 2.3730 | - 2.8140 | | 2025 - 06 | 137.1990 | 126.9900 | 1.2567 | 8.9523 | | 2025 - 07 | 135.2500 | 130.6900 | 1.2600 | 3.3000 | | 2025 - 08 | 135.3800 | 130.7500 | 1.6700 | 2.9600 | | 2025 - 09 | 124.4500 | 129.7500 | 1.9600 | - 7.2600 | | 2025 - 10 | 134.7500 | 132.1000 | 1.5700 | 1.0800 | | 2025 - 11 | 128.4500 | 124.4000 | 1.5600 | 2.4900 | | 2025 - 12 | 133.3000 | 123.1000 | 1.6700 | 8.5300 | [48]