Report Summary - **Report Title**: PVC Weekly Report: Focus on the Sustainability of Export Rush, Trading in a Range - **Report Date**: February 8, 2026 - **Reporting Team**: Energy and Chemicals Team - **Analysts**: Guo Jianfeng, Guo Yanpeng, Li Qian 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Short - term export rush and low valuation support the bottom of the PVC market, but attention should be paid to the post - holiday inventory accumulation. The domestic PVC supply is stable, domestic demand is in the seasonal off - peak, and exports are the key variable. Although the export rush supports the near - term price, there may be a marginal decline in the long - term, and the high - inventory pattern is hard to change. The cost side shows low valuation, and the market is expected to trade in a range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market Review - This week, PVC first rose and then fell, with the weekly line turning negative. It opened at 5040 at the beginning of the week, led the chemical sector's rise on Wednesday to a four - month high of 5178, then fell to a low of 4941 on Friday, and finally closed at 4981, with an amplitude of 237 points [3][8]. 3.2 Capital and Related Indicators - As of this Friday, the main contract's open interest was 1.1 million lots, at a high level for the same period. The V5 - 9 spread was - 113 yuan/ton as of this Friday, and on January 12, it once strengthened to - 40 yuan/ton due to export tariff news. Considering the short - term export demand front - loading effect, a long - short spread trade between May and September contracts can be considered [11][17]. 3.3 Valuation - As of this Thursday, the integrated profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was - 937 yuan/ton, still at a low level for the same period, and that of Northwest China was 926 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level for the same period. Shandong's industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.63 yuan/kWh (month - on - month decrease of 0.02), falling for three consecutive months; Inner Mongolia Western's industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.45 yuan/ton (month - on - month increase of 0.01), rising for two consecutive months [20][22]. 3.4 Supply - This week, PVC output was 480,000 tons (month - on - month increase of 0.2), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.8%, remaining stable for seven consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate was 79%. Only Formosa Plastics (82) in Taiwan and Tosoh (22) in Guangzhou have new planned maintenance in February [26]. 3.5 Domestic Demand - In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction in progress, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 20.4%, - 10.0%, - 18.1%, and - 8.7% respectively. The sales area has seen an expanding decline for eight consecutive months. The real estate transaction area is at a low level for the same period. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the price indices of newly built and second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities were - 3.05% and 6.07% respectively, and the month - on - month growth rates were - 0.37% and - 0.70% respectively [31][34]. 3.6 External Demand - This week, the FOB price of Chinese calcium carbide, CFR price to India, and Southeast Asian price in January increased by $20, $20, and $0 per ton respectively. The Asian market price continued to rise, and the March contract price is expected to increase by $20 - 40 per ton. The Indian market price is rising, but demand is still insufficient. The US PVC market price is expected to rise further. In 2025, PVC exports were 3.82 million tons (year - on - year increase of 1.21 million tons, cumulative year - on - year increase of 46%). In January 2026, the average monthly export order volume was 62,000 tons (compared to 35,000 tons last year), and exports are expected to maintain high growth in the first quarter [37][42]. 3.7 Inventory - As of this Thursday, PVC enterprise inventory was 290,000 tons, decreasing for four consecutive weeks. The small - sample social inventory of PVC was 590,000 tons, the large - sample social inventory was 1.23 million tons, and the upper - middle - stream inventory was 1.52 million tons (week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons, year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons), rising for six consecutive weeks. It is expected that the social inventory will reach 1.38 million tons by the end of February [45][47]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Situation - This week, caustic soda output was 864,000 tons (month - on - month increase of 0.1), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.6%, and the capacity utilization rate was 88%, at a high level for the same period. In 2025, caustic soda exports were 4.1 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 34%). The current caustic soda factory inventory is 470,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 49,000 tons, showing a high - level decline [58][60][63]. 3.9 Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Treat it as range - bound trading. Focus on the V2605 contract in the range of 4850 - 5100 yuan/ton. - **Hedging**: Since the futures market is in a contango structure, industrial customers can sell on rallies. - **Arbitrage**: The export rush supports the near - term price. Consider a long - short spread trade between the May and September contracts [5].

Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report: Market Sentiment Dominates, Carbonate Lithium Awaits Stabilization" [1] Analyst Information - Analyst: Zhang Qing [2] - Consulting Account: Z0019679 [2] - Institution: Zhonghui Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] Market View Summary Macroeconomic Overview - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3 (previous value 50.1), and non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (previous value 50.2), both falling below the boom - bust line, indicating weak domestic and foreign demand and potential acceleration of growth - stabilizing policies; the US manufacturing PMI was 52.6, non - manufacturing PMI was 53.8, higher than previous values and expectations, with ADP employment adding 22,000, lower than expectations and previous values. The Fed paused rate cuts, and the new chairman nomination increased uncertainty in future rate - cut paths, leading to sharp corrections in precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and global equity markets [3] Supply Side - This week, carbonate lithium production declined slightly due to the Spring Festival holiday and maintenance. However, in January, Chile exported 16,950 tons of carbonate lithium to China, a 44.82% month - on - month increase, which may offset the domestic supply reduction in February [3] Demand Side - In January, national passenger car retail sales were 1.794 million, a 12.1% year - on - year and 31.9% month - on - month decline. The share of self - owned brands rose to 61%. National new - energy vehicle wholesale was estimated at 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. Tesla China's wholesale sales were 69,129 [4] Cost and Profit - This week, ore prices dropped significantly. African SC 5% was quoted at $1,650/ton, a $250/ton week - on - week decline; Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF was $1,843/ton, a $502/ton decline; lithium mica was priced at 5,900 yuan/ton, an 800 yuan/ton decline. The carbonate lithium industry profit was 36,139 yuan/ton, a 3,529 yuan/ton decrease [4] Total Inventory - As of February 5, the total inventory was 105,463 tons, a 2,019 - ton decrease from last week. Upstream smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, a 647 - ton decrease [4] Market Outlook - The basis strengthened compared to last week. The discount range for battery - grade carbonate lithium was 800 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and for industrial - grade and quasi - battery - grade was 1,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton. In actual transactions, the discount range for battery - grade was 500 - 2,000 yuan/ton. Lithium salt producers were less willing to sell spot orders, while traders were active. Downstream material producers had basically completed pre - holiday inventory preparations. The main carbonate lithium contract dropped sharply, erasing all January gains. Weak external precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, along with insufficient market liquidity, led to the continuous decline of carbonate lithium prices in search of support. The fundamentals showed no obvious negative factors, with inventory reduction continuing during the off - season. Downstream buyers were active in price - fixing when prices dropped sharply, with large volumes traded at the limit - down price. Due to the terminal's rush for exports, demand was slightly advanced, and downstream mainstream material producers maintained high operating rates, less affected by the Spring Festival. Upstream smelter production declined from the peak, and lithium salt producers' maintenance and production cuts were gradually evident. In February, the overall inventory reduction trend continued. The significant month - on - month increase in Chile's shipments in January led to concerns about inventory accumulation in the peak season in March. Coupled with high pre - holiday market volatility, funds actively left the market to avoid risks, resulting in a continuous decline in carbonate lithium positions. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization before establishing long positions and to hold no positions during the Spring Festival [5] Lithium - Battery Industry Price List - Various lithium - battery products showed price declines from January 30 to February 6, such as lithium spodumene (6% CIF: from $2,345/ton to $1,843/ton, - 21.41%; African SC 5%: from $1,900/ton to $1,650/ton, - 13.16%), lithium mica (from 6,700 yuan/ton to 5,900 yuan/ton, - 11.94%), battery - grade carbonate lithium (from 157,000 yuan/ton to 135,000 yuan/ton, - 14.01%), etc. Some products like metal lithium and certain grades of artificial and natural negative electrode materials remained unchanged [6] Weekly Market Review - As of February 6, the LC2605 contract closed at 132,920 yuan/ton, a 10.3% decline from last week. The spot price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 135,000 yuan/ton, a 14% decline. The basis changed from discount to premium, and the main contract position was 328,000. The sharp decline of the main contract was mainly due to the deep correction in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors, increasing the risk of market panic selling. Exchange position limits and pre - holiday risk - aversion needs led to a shortage of market liquidity. Despite the off - season inventory reduction in the fundamentals, prices continued to decline without new capital inflows [7] Production Situation of Related Products Carbonate Lithium - As of February 6, carbonate lithium production was 23,685 tons, a 375 - ton week - on - week decrease. The enterprise operating rate was 51.44%, a 0.81% decline. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, some enterprises arranged maintenance or holidays, resulting in a seasonal production decrease. The 16,950 - ton increase in Chile's exports to China in January offset the domestic reduction [9] Lithium Hydroxide - As of February 6, lithium hydroxide production was 6,450 tons, a 90 - ton week - on - week decrease. The enterprise operating rate was 43.28%, a 0.61% decline. Affected by the Spring Festival and enterprise maintenance, the operating rate remained low. Downstream material producers mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, and with sharp price fluctuations, they only made rigid purchases [11] Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of February 6, lithium iron phosphate production was 97,653 tons, a 1,950 - ton week - on - week decrease. The enterprise operating rate was 86.01%, a 1.72% decline. Affected by the decline in power orders and some enterprises' production load reduction and Sichuan's maintenance, production decreased slightly, but mainstream enterprises still maintained high operating rates [13] Ternary Materials - The report mentions that demand for ternary materials was slightly advanced, and production operating rates increased, but specific production data is not detailed [15] Other Cathode Materials - In the traditional off - season of consumer electronics, the production and operating rates of manganese acid lithium and cobalt acid lithium declined, but detailed production change data is not provided in a comprehensive manner [23][28] Inventory Situation Carbonate Lithium Total Inventory - As of February 5, the total carbonate lithium industry inventory was 105,463 tons, a 783 - ton decrease from last week, and the warehouse - receipt inventory was 33,777 tons, a 3,146 - ton increase. The total inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. As prices fell, lithium salt producers' off - season inventory reduction accelerated. Terminal demand was advanced due to export rush, and the Spring Festival had limited impact on production. After price drops, traders were active in purchasing, leading to an increase in warehouse receipts [32] Downstream Inventory - For lithium iron phosphate, as of February 6, the total industry inventory was 27,293 tons, a 785 - ton decrease. The finished - product inventory continued to decline. Downstream energy - storage demand provided support, promoting enterprises to actively sell goods. Most enterprises prioritized shipping existing inventory to accelerate inventory reduction, but the risk of inventory accumulation due to the continuous decline in power demand should be noted [35] - For ternary materials, the report only shows the inventory trend chart, and there is no specific description of the inventory change situation. For manganese acid lithium, cobalt acid lithium, and ternary precursors, the same situation exists, with only inventory trend charts provided and no detailed change descriptions [38][40][45] Cost and Profit Situation Cost - Side - As of February 6, the African SC 5% ore was quoted at $1,650/ton, a $250/ton week - on - week decline; the Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF was $1,843/ton, a $502/ton decline; the lithium mica market price was 5,900 yuan/ton, an 800 yuan/ton decline. Lithium salt producers' inventory replenishment was basically completed, and new purchases were few. The basis of lithium ore remained stable. The Australian ore shipment volume was moderately low, and the raw - material supply was still tight [46] Profit - Side - For carbonate lithium, as of February 6, the production cost was 121,050 yuan/ton, a 5,056 - yuan week - on - week decrease, and the industry profit was 29,550 yuan/ton, a 14,452 - yuan decrease. Lithium ore prices dropped significantly following the market, reducing the cost pressure on enterprises using imported ore, while the profits of enterprises with their own mines and salt lakes were not significantly affected. The lithium mica processing fee increased slightly, and the industry was still in the profit range [48] - For lithium hydroxide, as of February 6, the production cost was 110,259 yuan/ton, a 7,536 - yuan week - on - week decrease, and the industry profit was 37,972 yuan/ton, a 5,072 - yuan decrease. This week, the spot trading of aluminum hydroxide was light, downstream procurement basically ended, and the sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices led to a lack of support for lithium hydroxide prices and a marginal weakening of industry profits [50] - For lithium iron phosphate, as of February 6, the production cost was 50,655 yuan/ton, a 5,495 - yuan week - on - week decrease, and the loss was 2,056 yuan/ton, a 134 - yuan/ton decrease. This week, the sharp drop in raw - material prices dragged down the lithium iron phosphate price, but due to some enterprises' price - holding and reluctant - to - sell behavior, the transaction price remained relatively high, with a smaller price decline than the raw - material side, leading to a slight narrowing of the industry loss [53] - For ternary materials, the report shows the cost and profit trend charts, but there is no specific description of the cost and profit change data. The same situation exists for cobalt acid lithium, manganese acid lithium, and ternary precursors [57][60][62]

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 等待美伊谈判靴子落地，油价震荡调整。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，美伊谈判 | | 原油 | 震荡调整 | 仍有较大不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过 | | ★ | | 剩格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页 | | | | 岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 成本支撑减弱叠加化工需求减弱，液化气走弱。成本端油价短期受地缘扰 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 动反弹走强，但地缘溢价下降，后续支撑下降；供需方面，液化气商品量 | | ★ | | 出现下降，PDH 开工率连续下降，降至 70%以下，化工需求支撑降低； | | | | 库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 上游库存降至同期低位，节前基本面需求真空期，谨慎操作，关注节后验 | | ★ | 空头延续 | 证情况。成本端油价乙烷下跌，线性产量维持同期高位，本周中英石化等 | | | | 装置计划重启，预计供给延续增加趋势，基本面偏空。 | | | | 短期跟随成本运行为主，淡季 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 企稳可多配 | 美国通胀预期走低，经过调整之后，盘面情绪有所修复。继续关注市场交易情绪调 整情况。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配 | | ★ | | 置价值不变。关注调整幅度。 | | 白银 | 不宜参与 | 白银多空交易拥挤博弈尚没有结束。尽管长期理由仍然存在供需缺口连续 5 年，全 球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注，短期参与难度 | | ★★ | 大，风险报酬比不合适。 | | | 黄金 | | 美国通胀预期走低，经过调整之后，盘面情绪有所修复。继续关注市场交易情绪调 | | --- | --- | --- | | ★ | 企稳可多配 | 整情况。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配 | | | | 置价值不变。关注调整幅度。 | | 白银 | 不宜参与 | 球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注，短期参与难度 | | ★★ | | 大，风险报酬比不合适。 | | | | 春节长假临近，市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term volatility**: For soymeal, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil. Soymeal is affected by China's potential increase in US soybean purchases, US biodiesel expectations, and Argentina's drought; rapeseed meal sees improved import supply; rapeseed oil's tight - supply situation in South China is relieved to some extent [2][5][8]. - **Short - term adjustment**: For palm oil and soybean oil. Palm oil lacks new stimuli and faces potential inventory pressure; soybean oil has sufficient supply and weakening spot - market trading [2][11]. - **Oscillatory adjustment**: For cotton. Affected by external commodity markets, the US dollar index, and domestic consumption off - season, but has long - term positive expectations [2][15]. - **Pressured operation**: For red dates. High - inventory de - stocking may drive short - term rebounds, but the overall pattern is supply - demand loose [2][18]. - **Oscillatory weakness**: For live pigs. In a weak supply - demand pattern, near - month contracts are prone to decline, and far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trends [2][20]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2735 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day; national average spot price is 3159.14 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Supply and demand**: China may increase US soybean purchases, but domestic Q1 supply is sufficient. Argentina's drought persists, so be cautious about shorting [2][5]. - **International situation**: In 2026, Brazil's soybean export in February is estimated at 11.42 million tons, up 17.4% year - on - year; in January, it was 2.44 million tons, a record high for the same period. Argentina's farmers' new - season soybean sales pace accelerated in the fourth week of 2026 [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2239 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day; national average spot price is 2562.63 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Supply and demand**: The first batch of Australian rapeseeds entered the press, and coastal oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory ended the zero - state. China may purchase 3 ships of Canadian rapeseeds for April - May shipment, improving import supply [2][8]. Palm Oil - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 9026 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day; national average price is 9080 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - **Supply and demand**: US - Iran meeting led to lower crude oil prices. Palm oil's previous positive factors have been digested, and the upcoming release of Malaysia's January inventory and large domestic February imports may cause short - term inventory pressure [2][11]. Cotton - **Price data**: Futures prices of various contracts (CF2603, CF2605, etc.) show declines; the spot price of CCIndex (3218B) is 16025 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.08% [12]. - **Supply and demand**: Internationally, Brazil and Turkey may reduce cotton planting areas and yields. Domestically, new - cotton processing is almost complete, inventory is being depleted, import pressure is realized, and demand is weakening during the off - season [13][14][15]. Red Dates - **Price data**: Futures prices of various contracts (CJ2603, CJ2605, etc.) decline; spot prices in various regions are mostly stable [16]. - **Supply and demand**: The spot market is stable. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased by 1255 tons week - on - week, and high - inventory de - stocking may drive short - term rebounds [17][18]. Live Pigs - **Price data**: Futures prices of various contracts (lh2603, lh2605, etc.) decline; the national average slaughter price is 12060 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.50% [19]. - **Supply and demand**: In January, the breeding side slightly over - completed the plan. In February, the planned slaughter may decrease, but the daily - average pressure may increase. Demand is increasing before the festival, but the far - month contracts lack an upward basis due to poor capacity de - stocking [20].

1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Wait for stabilization [1] - Silver: Not recommended to participate [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Under pressure [1] - Lithium carbonate: Hold an empty position and wait and see [1] 2. Core Views - For precious metals, the recent sharp adjustment is due to the over - speculation of the "dollar credit crisis" and "global foreign exchange reserve re - balance" narratives, along with forced liquidations. However, the long - term support factors for gold remain stable [1][3]. - Copper is in a short - term range - bound oscillation, but long - term prospects are positive due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][7]. - Zinc is facing weak demand and inventory accumulation in the short term, while long - term supply challenges may bring opportunities [1][11]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation and seasonal demand weakness [1][14]. - Nickel prices are relatively weak due to high inventory and weak consumption in the off - season [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are highly volatile, and it is advisable to hold an empty position due to regulatory and market risks [1][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Both domestic and foreign spot and futures markets of gold and silver are in short - term adjustment. Gold prices on SHFE dropped by 3.15% and COMEX by 3.78%. Silver prices on SHFE dropped by 13.85% and COMEX by 19.84%. The gold - silver ratio has increased significantly [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: The sharp drop in precious metals is a result of over - speculation in the short - term and forced liquidations. The long - term support factors for gold, such as central bank gold purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty, remain intact. However, short - term market volatility needs to be digested [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for gold to stabilize, and avoid participating in silver in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of domestic gold around 1060 and silver around 19000, and continue to monitor the decline in volatility [1][4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai copper main contract dropped by 1.34%, LME copper by 1.42%, and COMEX copper by 3.48%. Trading volume increased by 18%, while open interest decreased by 5%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mines are in short supply, and copper concentrate processing fees have reached a new low. Domestic smelters plan to cut production, and refined copper supply is slowing. Although in the demand off - season, long - term demand from power, new energy, and other sectors is expected to support copper prices [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in copper cautiously in the short term, and keep a long - term perspective. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [99000, 103000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai zinc main contract dropped by 0.40%, and LME zinc by 0.21%. Trading volume decreased by 5.68%, and open interest decreased by 10.97%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with social inventories increasing [9]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. However, emerging industries may offset some of the decline in traditional demand [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce positions in the short term, control risks, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long term, consider buying on dips. The range for Shanghai zinc is [24000, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3250, 3300] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The price of LME aluminum dropped by 1.21%, Shanghai aluminum main contract by 2.38%, and alumina main contract by 1.20%. Open interest in both aluminum and alumina decreased. Inventories increased, with SHFE aluminum inventory increasing by 10.01% and SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increasing by 2.33% [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: In 2026, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues. The electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but demand is in the off - season. Alumina prices are under pressure due to overseas bauxite prices and inventory issues [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventories. The operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is [22000 - 24500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The price of LME nickel dropped by 0.84%, Shanghai nickel main contract by 2.29%, and stainless steel main contract by 0.11%. Open interest in nickel increased slightly, while that in stainless steel decreased. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with SMM pure nickel social inventory increasing by 6.56% [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production in 2026, but the actual supply is uncertain. Domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the stainless steel market is in the off - season with weak demand and increasing inventory [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is [120000 - 145000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract LC2605 dropped by 9.81%, and trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of lithium carbonate and related products also declined, while the basis increased significantly [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Domestic lithium salt plant production is declining, and supply is expected to be tight. Demand may pick up due to pre - holiday stocking and policy adjustments, but regulatory risks are high [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold an empty position, with the range of [12500 - 140000] yuan/ton [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soybean meal, due to sufficient supply in the first quarter in China and potential rebound space limited, short - term decline is expected. For rapeseed meal, with improved supply and uncertain trade policies, short - term decline is likely [1][4]. - **Short - term adjustment**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to have short - term adjustments. Palm oil is affected by inventory expectations and market sentiment; soybean oil is impacted by increased US soybean procurement; rapeseed oil is influenced by improved import supply [1]. - **Oscillatory adjustment**: Cotton is in an oscillatory adjustment state. The US cotton market is under pressure, and the domestic cotton market has weak upward drive before the Spring Festival but has strong expectations in the medium - long term [1][13]. - **Pressured operation**: Red dates' spot market is flat, and although high - inventory destocking may drive short - term rebounds, the overall pattern is pressured [1][16]. - **Oscillatory and weak**: For live pigs, in the context of supply - demand balance, near - month contracts are prone to fall, and far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trends but have opportunities for phased long - positions [1][18]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2731 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. Spot prices show a decline, with the national average price at 3159.43 yuan/ton, down 9.14 yuan or - 0.29% [2]. - **Market Situation**: China plans to increase US soybean procurement, and Argentina's drought continues. The domestic supply in the first quarter is sufficient, and the rebound space may be limited. Attention should be paid to Argentina's rainfall in February [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2238 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or - 0.40% from the previous day. The national average spot price remains unchanged at 2562.63 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply situation has improved with the entry of Australian seeds into crushing and the purchase of Canadian rapeseeds. However, the stability of Sino - Canadian trade policies needs to be monitored. Import recovery calls for cautious bullish views [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 9042 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan or - 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price is 9080 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or - 0.66% [8]. - **Market Situation**: Canadian rapeseed imports have returned to normal, and palm oil prices fell yesterday. Near the Spring Festival, trading is cautious. The market estimates the end - of - January palm oil inventory in Malaysia to be between 2.89 - 2.91 million tons, with a slight inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the inventory estimate and the US - Iran situation [1][9]. Cotton - **Price Information**: Futures prices of different contracts show a downward trend, such as CF2603 at 14670 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or - 0.54%. The spot price of CCIndex (3218B) is 16012 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.06% [10]. - **Market Situation**: The US cotton market is under pressure from external commodities and a strong US dollar. The domestic new cotton processing is basically completed, raw material inventory is being destocked, and demand is weakening. Before the Spring Festival, the upward drive is weak, but there are strong expectations in the medium - long term [1][13]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, such as CJ2603 at 8590 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or - 1.66%. Spot prices remain stable [14]. - **Market Situation**: The spot market is flat. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption season, the futures market fluctuates more. High - inventory destocking may drive short - term rebounds, but the overall pattern is pressured [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, such as Ih2603 at 10995 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan or - 1.39%. The national average slaughter price is 12000 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or - 0.99% [17]. - **Market Situation**: In February, the supply - demand situation is strong, but price rebounds in some areas may not be sustainable. Near - month contracts are prone to fall, and far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trends but have phased opportunities [1][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillatory adjustment [1][6] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][11] - L: Bearish trend continues [15] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1][19] - PVC: Range - bound oscillation [1][23] - PTA: Range - bound consolidation, expect positive outlook [2][27] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2][30] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][33] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [2][38] - LNG: Oscillatory consolidation [5][42] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5][46] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [5][51] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [5][55] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends, core drivers, and supply - demand situations of multiple energy and chemical products, providing investment strategies and price range suggestions for each product based on factors like geopolitical situations, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations [1][2][5] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, oil prices declined. WTI dropped 2.84%, Brent fell 2.75%, and domestic SC rose 1.13% [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term, geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East persist. Core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global crude inventories. US crude and refined product inventories are both rising, putting downward pressure on oil prices [8][9] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC + maintained its production policy unchanged in the February 1st meeting, pausing production increases in March. US crude production is gradually rising as the impact of the cold wave subsides. Indian crude imports in December increased 1.6% month - on - month. As of January 30th, US crude inventories decreased by 3.45 million barrels [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term, it will oscillate and adjust with increased volatility. Pay attention to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. SC should focus on the range [465 - 480] [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On February 5th, the PG main contract closed at 4,197 yuan/ton, down 0.85% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,470, 4,446, and 4,845 yuan/ton respectively [11][12] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost of oil prices. In the long - term, oil prices are under pressure. Supply is stable, but downstream chemical demand is weakening, and inventories are accumulating [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to move down. Short - term, due to uncertainties in oil prices and a bearish fundamental outlook, focus on the range [4150 - 4250] [14] L - **Market Review**: L05 closed at 6,777 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Cost factors such as oil and ethane prices are falling. Production is expected to continue increasing. Before the Spring Festival, demand is weak. Pay attention to the situation after the festival [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [6700 - 6900] [18] PP - **Market Review**: PP05 closed at 6,676 yuan/ton, down 1.8% [20] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it follows cost fluctuations. In the off - season, inventories are accumulating in the upstream and mid - stream. The supply - demand situation is weak, with a 20% shutdown ratio. PDH profits are low, providing cost support. Pay attention to future demand verification [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [6550 - 6750] [22] PVC - **Market Review**: V05 closed at 5,155 yuan/ton, up 1.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Weekly export orders are weakening, and social inventories are at a record high. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is at a low level, providing bottom - line cost support. However, long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [4900 - 5100] [26] PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation has improved, with better processing fees. Supply is relatively stable as domestic devices are under planned maintenance. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the pressure is not significant [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamental outlook is positive. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips for the 05 contract. TA05 should focus on the range [5090 - 5230] [29] MEG - **Market Review**: EG05 closed at 4,081 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [30] - **Basic Logic**: Low - valuation has been repaired. Domestic production load has increased, while downstream demand is seasonally weak. Port inventories are rising, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 should focus on the range [3690 - 3790] [32] Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [33] - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is at a high valuation level. Domestic production load remains high, while overseas devices are significantly under - loaded. Demand has weakened significantly. Cost support is relatively stable. Geopolitical conflicts and cold weather in North America bring short - term positive factors [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between weak current reality and strong future expectations. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. MA05 should focus on the range [2200 - 2260] [37] Urea - **Market Review**: UR05 closed at 1,777 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall production load is rising, and demand is short - term strong but expected to weaken as it enters the holiday off - season. There are upper and lower limits on prices due to policies [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply and demand are both strong, but downstream demand support is expected to weaken. Cautiously chase up. UR05 should focus on the range [1760 - 1790] [41] LNG - **Market Review**: On February 4th, the NG main contract closed at 3.458 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 2.40% [42][43] - **Basic Logic**: The impact of the cold wave has diminished, and prices have gradually declined. Domestic LNG retail profits have increased. Supply decreased in January, and demand in Japan declined in 2025. US natural gas inventories decreased but were higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, demand supports prices, but supply is relatively sufficient. NG should focus on the range [3.329 - 3.680] [45] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 5th, the BU main contract closed at 3,339 yuan/ton, down 0.65% [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause oil prices to oscillate strongly. Asphalt profits have declined. Supply in February decreased, and demand imports and exports increased in 2025. Inventories have risen [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high. Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. There are uncertainties in supply. Be cautious about risks. BU should focus on the range [3300 - 3400] [50] Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 closed at 1,088 yuan/ton, down 1.9% [52] - **Basic Logic**: Daily melting volume has slightly decreased, and the supply - demand is weakly balanced. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, with high - level inventory accumulation. Demand is in the off - season. More supply cuts are needed to reduce inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [1050 - 1100] [54] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 closed at 1,229 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [56] - **Basic Logic**: Heavy - soda demand has declined, and factory inventories have risen for two consecutive weeks. Real - estate demand is weak, and heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and production capacity utilization has decreased. Be cautious about chasing up before further maintenance [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range [1170 - 1220] [58]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比下降，春节临近，现货成交持续萎缩。螺纹利润尚可，产量在利润支撑下 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 回升，库存累积。铁水产量变化不大，供需总体符合季节性规律。钢材供需层面矛盾有 | | | | 限，中期维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有上升，绝对水平偏高。钢厂利润总体一般，节前生 | | | 谨慎看空 | 产相对平稳。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制， | | ★ | | 中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 钢厂进口矿库存水平明显上升，补库进入尾声，铁水环比小幅回升，外矿发货继续增加， | | ★ | | 铁矿基本面中性略偏弱，价格或承压。 | | | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，二轮提涨有难度。近期焦企亏损程度略有减轻，受生产惯性短期焦 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略降。从需求来看，铁水产量变化不大，下游维持按需 | | ★ | | 采购。预计短期维持区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | 谨慎看空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline in soybean meal**: Good crushing margins and sufficient domestic supply put pressure on the soybean meal market. Attention should be paid to the rainfall in Argentina's soybean - growing areas in February [1][4]. - **Short - term adjustment in rapeseed meal**: The end of the consumption season and the influence of soybean meal lead to a short - term downward trend. Focus on the progress of rapeseed procurement and Sino - Canadian and US - Canadian trade [1][8]. - **Short - term adjustment in palm oil**: Although the export and production data in January are positive, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Buying enthusiasm is weak, so be cautious when chasing long positions. Monitor the estimated inventory in January and the situation in the US - Iran relationship [1][11]. - **Short - term adjustment in soybean oil**: The 45Z proposed rule boosts market sentiment, but be cautious when chasing long positions before the Spring Festival. Look for short - term long opportunities after a pull - back. Pay attention to the palm oil market and the weather in Argentina [1]. - **Short - term adjustment in rapeseed oil**: The supply shortage in South China has been alleviated, and the spot basis is stable. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakening. Follow the import of Canadian rapeseed and Sino - Canadian and US - Canadian trade [1]. - **Oscillatory adjustment in cotton**: The US cotton market is under pressure, and the domestic market has a slow inventory - reduction speed. The consumption is in the off - season, and the upward drive before the festival is weak. In the long - term, there is a strong expectation under the background of planting reduction and inventory replenishment [1][15]. - **Pressured operation in red dates**: The spot market is flat, but the futures market fluctuates with the peak of new product listing and the consumption season. High - inventory reduction may drive a short - term rebound, but the overall situation is under pressure [1][18]. - **Oscillatory and weak in live pigs**: In the context of supply - demand prosperity in February, there may be short - term price rebounds in some areas, but they lack a sustainable basis. Near - month contracts are prone to decline, and far - month contracts lack an upward trend basis but have short - term long - allocation opportunities [1][20]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price and Market**: The futures price of soybean meal closed at 2723 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3159.43 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The soybean crushing profit showed a mixed trend [2]. - **Industry News**: The US Treasury issued the 45Z proposed rule. The US soybean crushing volume in December reached a historical second - high level. The expected soybean output in Argentina for 2025/26 is 4800 tons, and Brazil's output is expected to be a record 1.79 billion tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Market**: The futures price of rapeseed meal closed at 2247 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous day. The national average spot price remained unchanged. The rapeseed crushing profit improved [5]. - **Industry News**: Coastal oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory broke the zero state, and China has completed the customs clearance of Australian rapeseed and ordered Canadian rapeseed [8]. Palm Oil - **Price and Market**: The futures price of palm oil closed at 9138 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The national average price increased by 0.44%. The import cost rose, and the inventory decreased [9]. - **Industry News**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data in January were positive, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation [11]. Cotton - **Price and Market**: The futures prices of different cotton contracts showed different trends. The spot price of CCIndex (3218B) increased slightly. The spinning profit decreased, and the demand of spinning and weaving enterprises weakened [12]. - **Industry News**: Brazil and Turkey are expected to reduce cotton production. In China, new - cotton processing is basically completed, and the inventory is starting to decline, but the demand is in the off - season [13][14][15]. Red Dates - **Price and Market**: The futures prices of red dates contracts declined slightly. The spot prices remained stable. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased [16]. - **Industry News**: The spot market is stable, and the high - inventory reduction may drive a short - term rebound [17][18]. Live Pigs - **Price and Market**: The futures prices of different live - pig contracts showed different trends. The national average slaughter price decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased [19]. - **Industry News**: In January, the supply plan was slightly over - completed. In February, the supply plan will decrease, but the daily - average supply pressure may increase. The demand is in the pre - festival peak season, but the profit is not conducive to further capacity reduction [20].