| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量小幅上升，表需环比略降，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续正常去化，目前 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 已降至较低水平。铁水产量基本持平，与去年同期相近。目前宏观政策驱动有限，螺纹 供需双弱，区间运行的状态仍将维持。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需小幅上升，库存继续下降，但绝对水平仍然偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情上方空间形成压制，短期或继续 维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。降幅缩小。钢厂补库，港口增库。外矿发到货双降，阶段性 | | ★ | | 支撑矿价。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭三轮提降落地，四轮提降预期增强。近期部分地区有再次执行环保预警的预期， 当 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 前焦企生产积极性尚可，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量降幅放缓，钢厂维 | | | | 持小幅补库。预计短期跟随焦煤价格区间运行。 | | | | 临近年末煤矿检修增多，矿山产量环比继续下降，预 ...

中辉有色观点 基本逻辑：今年以来，贵金属抢眼，供需失衡、美联储降息以及资金涌入共同催生了本轮的 银铂钯"疯涨"行情。但是短期黄金除外的其他品种面临高位波动风险 | | | | | 1 20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | | S Colle | 11 11 11 | | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 政策真空，ETF 资金持续流入稳定增长的黄金，短期重大事件落地，流动性风险偏好 | | | 长线持有 | 尚可，基本面短期没有重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续 | | ★ | | 存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 美元持续走弱，白银交割故事或将持续重演，长期来看市场押注降息持续、供需缺 | | | 控制风险 | 口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金银比 | | ★★ | | 价大幅快速降低，盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险。 | | 铜 | | 外盘圣诞休市，国内走出独立行情，宏 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each commodity, including cautious sell, short - term rebound, and cautious buy [1][3][6] Core Views - The overall view is that the energy and chemical industry is facing complex situations with factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, supply - demand imbalances, and cost fluctuations influencing prices. Different commodities have different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others having short - term rebound opportunities [1][3][6] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Core view: Short - term rebound due to geopolitical uncertainties in South America, but in the off - season with supply surplus, overall bearish. - Main logic: Geopolitical issues in South America and the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers boost prices in the short - term. However, there is a supply surplus in the off - season, with OPEC+ in an expansion cycle, increasing global floating storage and in - transit crude, and rising US inventories [1][9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of SC [435 - 445] [11] LPG - Core view: Cautious sell. - Main logic: The cost side is under pressure as the long - term trend of crude oil is downward. Although there is some resilience in downstream chemical demand, inventories are still a concern [1][15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [16] L (Plastic) - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: Market sentiment is improving, leading to a short - term rebound. However, the fundamentals are weak with a high supply and low demand situation. There is also pressure to reduce inventory [20] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of L [6300 - 6500] [20] PP - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: It rebounds along with the chemical sector, but there is high inventory pressure in December. PDH profit compression increases the expectation of maintenance [24] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of PP [6200 - 6400] [24] PVC - Core view: High inventory restricts the rebound space. - Main logic: Lanthanum carbonate price reduction leads to a short - term rebound. However, due to seasonal off - peak demand and high inventory, the long - term trend depends on inventory reduction [28] - Strategy: Take partial profits on long positions. Wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of V [4650 - 4800] [28] PTA - Core view: Consider buying on dips. - Main logic: Supply - side maintenance is in progress, and the short - term supply - demand balance is tight. However, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January. Downstream demand is good currently but expected to weaken [30] - Strategy: Focus on buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of TA [5060 - 5150] [31] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - Core view: Rebound but consider shorting on the rebound. - Main logic: Domestic production load is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. Although the valuation is low, there is a lack of upward drivers [33] - Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities on the rebound. Focus on the range of EG05 [2139 - 2179] [34] Methanol - Core view: Cautious about chasing long positions. - Main logic: Domestic production load is at a high level, and there is still supply pressure in December. The demand side is slightly weakening [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips [39] Urea - Core view: Range - bound oscillation. - Main logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase in December, while the winter storage has limited positive effects. There is still an arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets [41] - Strategy: Expect a weakening oscillation. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of UR05 [1710 - 1745] [43] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - Core view: Supply is sufficient, and the price is under pressure. - Main logic: Although it is the consumption peak season, the relatively mild weather in the US reduces demand support. The supply side is relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Focus on the range of NG [3.602 - 4.054] [47] Asphalt - Core view: Short - term rebound due to South American geopolitical conflicts. - Main logic: It is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. The short - term rebound is due to South American geopolitical uncertainties, but the supply - demand situation is weak [50] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [51] Glass - Core view: Rebound at a low level. - Main logic: Cold repair is increasing, and the daily melting volume is decreasing. High inventory restricts the short - term rebound. The real estate market is in an adjustment period [55] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [1030 - 1070] [55] Soda Ash - Core view: Weak oscillation. - Main logic: Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. There is a plan to put into production a large - scale device at the end of the month, and the demand from the real estate and glass industries is weak [59] - Strategy: Take partial profit on short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [59]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， | | 豆粕 | | 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 | | | 震荡偏空 | 应预计暂充足，但一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，现货价格表 | | ★ | | 现抗跌。豆粕预计短线暂维持震荡偏弱行情。关注美豆出口情况及南美天气情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，仓单库存压力有所减轻。但全球丰产、进 | | 菜粕 | | 口多元化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主，菜粕一季度供 | | ★ | 震荡偏空 | 应整体偏紧，库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。关注澳籽压榨和进 | | | | 口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 马棕榈油 12月20日最新产量数据环比下降。12月马棕榈油累库的可能性依然存在， | | | 止跌反弹 | 短线以反弹对待，追多谨慎，注意仓位及操作节奏。关注明日马棕榈油出口数据情 | | ★ | | 况 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 政策真空资金持续流入稳定增长的黄金，短期重大事件落地，流动性风险偏好尚可， | | | 长线持有 | 基本面短期没有重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在， | | ★ | | 央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银交割故事或将持续重演，长期来看市场押注降息持续、供需缺口连续 5 年持续， | | 白银 | 控制风险 | 全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金银比价大幅快速降低， | | ★★ | | 盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险。 | | | | LME 因圣诞节休市两天，美国三季度 GDP 超预期，市场流动性充裕，风险偏好提高， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 基本面对铜强支撑，铜续创历史新高。隔夜铜高位调整，波动放大，建议铜多单部 | | ★ | | 分移动逢高止盈，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 海外锌隐形库存加速显性化，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 需双弱，国内淡季去库。锌承压回 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比略上升，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续下降，去化速度正常。 | | | 谨慎看空 | 铁水产量延续下降态势，已低于去年同期水平。螺纹在弱驱动、低估值状态下中期或继 | | ★ | | 续维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量及表需延续小幅下降的状态，库存降幅仍然不大，处于近年来同期最高水平， | | ★ | | 去库不畅。现货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。盘面或仍将维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续有继续减量预期，关注其降幅。钢厂降库，港口增库。 | | ★ | | 外矿发到货双降，阶段性支撑矿价。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货开启第三轮提降，各地区环保预警陆续解除， 焦企生产积极性尚可，产区供 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，对原料端形成压制。预计短期跟随焦煤 价格区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 临近年末煤矿检修增多，预计短期供应量仍将维持偏低水平。进口方面，口岸通关车数 | | | ...

1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - **Beans and Meals**: The report gives a "Shockingly Bearish" rating for both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [1]. - **Oils**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "Stopping Decline and Rebounding" [1]. - **Cotton**: The rating for cotton is "Shockingly Bullish" [1]. - **Jujubes**: Jujubes are rated as "Weakly Running" [1]. - **Pigs**: The short - term rating for pigs is "Short - term Rebound" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Although the latest domestic soybean meal inventory has improved on a week - on - week basis, it is still high year - on - year. The supply in December is expected to be sufficient, but the import forecast for the first quarter is expected to decrease year - on - year. Coupled with the increase in the cost of imported US soybeans, the spot price is resistant to decline. It is expected to maintain a shockingly weak trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the export situation of US soybeans and the weather in South America [1][6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but the port inventory is still high year - on - year, and the warehouse receipt pressure has been reduced. However, global bumper harvests, diversified imports, and the off - season for consumption weaken the bullish expectations. In the short term, it mainly follows the trend of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][9]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia has proposed to implement B50 in the second half of 2026 again. The export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of this month have improved significantly compared with the previous period, and the production reduction season is coming, which stimulates the market's bullish sentiment. However, there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation in December. It should be treated as a short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to position and operation rhythm. In the short - term operation, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [1][11]. - **Soybean Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory has decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis but is still higher than the five - year average. The EPA said that the biodiesel target is expected to be announced in January at the earliest, which suppresses the market's bullish sentiment. The domestic soybean reserve auction has started, and the supply will increase marginally in the first quarter. Coupled with the improved weather in South America, the US soybean oil lacks bullish drivers. It should be treated as a short - term rebound. Attention should be paid to the weather in South America, the progress of US biodiesel policies, and the boost from the palm oil side [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. The port inventory has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. However, diversified imports such as Australian and Russian rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the commercialization expectation of Australian rapeseed imports, global rapeseed and Canadian rapeseed bumper harvests, and the positive attitude of Canada towards China - Canada relations increase the uncertainty of the future market. It should be treated as a short - term rebound. Attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton harvest is nearing the end, and Brazilian cotton has started the new - season planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. In China, most of the new cotton has been inspected, and the sales progress is still relatively fast, which supports the market. However, in the near term, attention should be paid to the short - term correction risk of further weakening downstream demand, and the change in the inventory accumulation speed of commercial inventories should be monitored. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips and the long - term moderate recovery opportunity under the supply - side narrative [1][15]. - **Jujubes**: At the end of the acquisition, the spot price has stopped falling due to a small increase. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the market fluctuation will increase. High inventory still exerts obvious pressure on the jujube price rebound. In the context of a loose supply - demand pattern, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. Most of the premium caused by the hype of a large - scale reduction in new - season jujube production since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of the market has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. In the cooling context, attention can be paid to the short - term rebound opportunity at the bottom [1][17]. - **Pigs**: Recently, the spot price of pigs has declined, and the winter solstice stocking market has cooled down. Although the demand indicators such as fresh sales and slaughter have improved stage by stage, the increase in supply is likely to exceed the increase in demand, so the short - term upward driving force of pig prices is limited. Coupled with the late Spring Festival this year and the increase in the number of second - fattened pigs entering the market, even if the winter solstice expectation fails, the inventory in December is difficult to be effectively cleared, and the price will still be under pressure in January. For contracts, the 01 contract is still suppressed by the delivery logic, and attention should be paid to the downward risk; for the 03 contract, in the case of no unexpected spread of the epidemic, attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds; for the 09 and 11 contracts, due to the divergence between the reduction expectation and capacity reduction, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices for the time being [1][21]. 3. Summaries According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: The latest futures price of soybean meal (main contract daily closing) is 2745 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.15%. The national average spot price is 3144 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.14 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.04%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 107.8807 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.90 yuan [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of December 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 865.6 million tons, a decrease of 50.60 million tons compared with last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills is 722.36 million tons, a decrease of 17.12 million tons compared with last week, a decrease rate of 2.32%, and an increase of 143.79 million tons compared with last year, an increase rate of 24.85%. The soybean meal inventory is 113.71 million tons, an increase of 4.02 million tons compared with last week, an increase rate of 3.66%, and an increase of 55.43 million tons compared with last year, an increase rate of 95.11% [5]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The latest futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract daily closing) is 2349 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 12 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.51%. The national average spot price is 2507.37 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 9.47 yuan and a daily decrease rate of - 0.38%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 607.394 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16.29 yuan [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of December 19, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory is 0 million tons, the same as last week; the rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons compared with last week; the unexecuted contract is 0 million tons, the same as last week [9]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The latest futures price of palm oil (main contract daily closing) is 8486 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 72 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.86%. The national average price is 8525 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 155 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.85%. The national daily trading volume is 100, a decrease of 1100 compared with the previous day. The import cost is 8732 yuan/ton, an increase of 183 yuan compared with the previous day [10]. - **Inventory Data**: As of December 19, 2025 (week 51), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 70 million tons, an increase of 4.73 million tons compared with last week, an increase rate of 7.25%, and an increase of 16.16 million tons compared with last year, an increase rate of 30.01% [11]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market Data**: The latest futures price of the cotton main contract (CF2605) is 14140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.50%. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price is 15213 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 59 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.39%. The spinning profit of textile enterprises is - 1428.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan compared with the previous day [12]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: The national cotton commercial inventory is 504.73 million tons, an increase of 26 million tons compared with the previous value. The new - season cotton production in China is estimated to be 768 million tons, an increase of 26 million tons compared with the previous estimate. The import volume of cotton in November is 30 million tons, an increase of about 7.3 million tons compared with the previous month, and 1.35 million tons higher than the same period [14]. 3.5 Jujubes - **Market Data**: The acquisition in some jujube - producing areas has ended, and the prices in the producing areas are weakening. The physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week is 16108 tons, an increase of 318 tons compared with the previous week, gradually reaching the peak, and still 4148 tons higher than the same period [16]. 3.6 Pigs - **Market Data**: The latest futures price of the main pig contract (lh2603) is 11415 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.62%. The national average pig slaughter price is 11500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.61%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory is 3856.32 million heads, an increase of 11.70 million heads compared with the previous month, an increase rate of 0.30%. The national sample enterprise pig slaughter volume is 1188 million heads, a decrease of 8.53 million heads compared with the previous month, a decrease rate of - 0.71% [19]. - **Supply and Demand and Profit**: In the short term, the supply pressure is large, the demand after the winter solstice stocking has declined, and the industry loss pattern has continued to deepen slightly, with losses for 14 weeks. There has been some second - fattening behavior recently, which provides a short - term "bottom - support" for inventory clearance [20].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | 供应端略有降负，PTA 装置按计划检修且整体检修力度较大（英力士、逸 盛宁波周末重启；英力士另一条线降负后存停车可能，四川能投延后重启， | | | PX/PTA | | 独山能源 1#、逸盛大连、逸盛海南维持停车状态；与此同时，逸盛新材料 | | | | 谨慎追涨 计划 | 1 月检修）。下游需求相对较好但预期走弱（织造订单持续下行）。 | | | ★ | | 成本端支撑尚存。短期来看，基本面相对健康，供需偏紧，但 1 月存累库 | | | | | 预期。 | | | | | 国内乙二醇装置整体开工负荷提升，海外装置整体变动不大（伊朗 | | | | | Morvarid12 月上停车检修 3 周、Farsa 计划 12 月底停车检修 2-3 周； | | | 乙二醇 | 反弹布空 | Equate1#月底检修）；下游需求相对较好但预期走弱。港口库存回升，12 | | | ★ | | 月存累库预期。乙二醇估值偏低， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious and bearish outlook on the energy and chemical industries, with some potential for short - term rebounds [1][3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, LNG, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views on each product, such as short - term rebounds or long - term bearish trends, based on factors like supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost changes [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Short - term rebound due to rising South American geopolitical uncertainty, but long - term bearish due to oversupply in the off - season [1][9] - Market Performance: WTI, Brent, and SC rebounded overnight, with WTI rising 2.64%, Brent rising 2.55%, and SC rising 1.22% [7][8] - Fundamental Analysis: South American geopolitical uncertainty increased as the US seized Venezuelan oil tankers. Demand is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, but US inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 12 [9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [11] LPG - Core View: Short - term rebound supported by the cost side, but long - term bearish [1][12] - Market Performance: On December 22, the PG main contract closed at 4100 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [14] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply increased as refinery operations rose, and downstream chemical demand was resilient. Inventories decreased both at ports and in factories [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [16] L - Core View: The market returned to a weak state after the commissioning of a new device [17] - Market Performance: L05 closed at 6320 yuan/ton, down 2.4% [18] - Fundamental Analysis: The commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new device by BASF increased supply pressure. The off - season for agricultural films led to decreased demand, and inventory faced de - stocking pressure [20] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] for L [20] PP - Core View: High inventory constrained the rebound space, and the market oscillated at a low level [21] - Market Performance: PP05 closed at 6213 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [22] - Fundamental Analysis: Total commercial inventory remained at a high level. Demand entered the off - season in December, and the de - stocking pressure was high [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of [6150 - 6300] for PP [24] PVC - Core View: The market rebounded from the bottom supported by low valuation [25] - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4652 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [26] - Fundamental Analysis: Although the upper - middle stream inventory was high and supply reduction was insufficient, many domestic devices had cash - flow losses, and some marginal devices started to reduce loads [28] - Strategy: Go long in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory de - stocking to go long on dips in the long term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] for V [28] PTA - Core View: The supply - demand pattern was good, and consider buying on dips [29] - Market Performance: TA05 closed at 4674 yuan/ton, down 48 [29] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply decreased as many domestic devices were under planned maintenance, and overseas devices were partially increased in load. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken. There was a risk of inventory accumulation in January [30] - Strategy: Consider buying TA05 on dips. Focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] for TA [31] MEG - Core View: Supply - demand weakened, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation. Consider shorting on rebounds [32] - Market Performance: EG05 closed at 3619 yuan/ton, down 56 [32] - Fundamental Analysis: Domestic device loads increased, and overseas devices were expected to reduce loads. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken, and port inventories were rising [33] - Strategy: Consider shorting EG05 on rebounds. Focus on the range of [3680 - 3770] for EG05 [34] Methanol - Core View: Port inventory decreased, but demand was under pressure. Be cautious about chasing long positions [35] - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent way [37] - Fundamental Analysis: Spot prices in Taicang weakened slightly, and the negative basis strengthened. Supply pressure remained as the arrival volume in December was estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and demand weakened slightly [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Consider buying methanol 05 on dips [39] Urea - Core View: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, and the market oscillated weakly [40] - Market Performance: URO5 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [40] - Fundamental Analysis: Gas - based urea device operations decreased significantly, but overall load was still high. Demand was expected to weaken, and inventory was at a relatively high level [41][42] - Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider buying UR05 on dips. Focus on the range of [1670 - 1690] for UR05 [43] LNG - Core View: Supply was sufficient, and gas prices were under downward pressure [44] - Market Performance: On December 19, the NG main contract closed at 3.984 dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.94% [46] - Fundamental Analysis: Demand support decreased due to mild weather in the US, and supply was relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Although there is demand support in the consumption season, gas prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply. Focus on the range of [3.895 - 4.260] for NG [47] Asphalt - Core View: South American geopolitical uncertainty vs. weak supply - demand, the market oscillated within a range [48] - Market Performance: The main contract (2602) closed at 2909 yuan/ton, down 1.46% [48] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply was relatively sufficient, and demand entered the off - season. The cracking spread and BU - FU spread were returning to normal but still had room for compression [50] - Strategy: Partially close short positions due to South American geopolitical uncertainty. Focus on the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [51] Glass - Core View: Factory inventory ended a three - week decline, and the market oscillated at a low level [52] - Market Performance: FG05 closed at 1041 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [52] - Fundamental Analysis: High inventory constrained the rebound space. The melting volume remained stable, and demand was weak. Process profits turned negative [54] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of [1000 - 1050] for FG [54] Soda Ash - Core View: Warehouse receipts increased, and the market oscillated weakly [55] - Market Performance: SA05 closed at 1176 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [56] - Fundamental Analysis: Warehouse receipts continued to increase, and although short - term supply pressure was relieved by maintenance, long - term supply was expected to be loose due to the planned commissioning of a new device. Demand support was insufficient [58]

资料来源：iFinD，mysteel，中辉期货 【品种观点】 螺纹钢：螺纹产量及表需环比略上升，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续下降，去化速度正 常。铁水产量延续下降态势，已低于去年同期水平。热卷：热卷产量及表需延续小幅下降的 状态，库存降幅仍然不大，处于近年来同期最高水平，去库不畅。 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比略上升，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续下降，去化速度正常。 | | | 谨慎看空 | 铁水产量延续下降态势，已低于去年同期水平。螺纹在弱驱动、低估值状态下中期或继 | | ★ | | 续维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需延续小幅下降的状态，库存降幅仍然不大，处于近年来同期最高水平， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 去库不畅。现货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。盘面或仍将维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续有继续减量预期，关注其降幅。钢厂降库，港口增库。 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 外矿发到货双降，阶段性支撑矿价。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第三轮提降，部分地区 ...