| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 气候中性预期，美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，8 月累库速度 | | | 较 7 | 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关键成本支撑。在基本面偏弱及 | | | | 中美贸易关税成本支撑的多空因素交织作用下，大区间行情对待。昨日凌晨美农公 | | 豆粕 | 布 8 短线偏多 | 月供需报告，意外大幅调低美豆种植面积，但调增了单产，导致最终美豆产量 | | ★★ | | 及期末库存环比下调，产量环比调减 116 万吨，叠加中国发布对加籽反倾销调查初 | | | | 步政策，菜粕封停。豆粕价格昨日大幅上涨。但考虑阿根廷豆粕价格以及美豆产量 | | | | 环比调减幅度有限。豆粕追多操作需注意仓位管理和风控，警惕菜粕滞涨后的调整 | | | | 风险。主力【3120，3280】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽新年单产存在调减风险。国内油厂菜籽环比去库菜 | | | | 粕环比累库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。8 月至 10 月菜籽进口同比 | | 菜粕 | | 大幅 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 目前高炉利润仍然较好，电炉利润较前期亦有好转，钢厂生产积极性较高，铁水产量高 | | 螺纹钢 | | 位运行。需求端总体仍然较弱，建筑钢材成交低位徘徊。但阅兵期间限产政策尚未完全 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 落地，继续支撑市场对供应端收缩的预期，同时原料端也带来扰动，中期料区间波动， | | | | 目前处于偏中性位置，短期行情易反复。【3190，3250】 | | | | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。热卷出口利润回落明显，后期 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 出口或受一定影响。宏观强预期对下方形成支撑，阅兵期间限产预期对行情形成支撑。 | | ★ | | 当前位置偏中性，短期行情或有反复。【3410，3470】 | | 铁矿石 | 短多参与 | 基本面看，铁水产量再降。港口、钢厂库存同增，钢厂低库存补库带动阶段性价格坚挺。 | | ★ | | 基本面主导下，矿价偏强。【780,815】 | | | | 焦炭现货已有六轮提涨，焦企利润继续改善。部分地区公布阅兵期间限产政策，后期供 | ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3336 | 17 | 热卷01 | 3478 | 17 | | 螺纹05 | 3365 | 15 | 热卷05 | 3486 | 20 | | 螺纹10 | 3258 | 8 | 热卷10 | 3484 | 19 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 3120 | 20 | 张家港废钢 | 2140 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3290 | 40 | 热卷： 天津 | 3460 | 20 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3370 | 1 0 | 热卷:上海 | 3510 | 30 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3420 | 1 0 | 热卷： 杭州 | 3550 | 40 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3400 | 20 | 热卷： 广州 | 3500 | 20 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3420 | 10 | 热卷:成都 | 3550 | 30 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG [1][33][37][41] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG, Urea [1][48] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, PVC, Propylene [1] - **Bearish**: Methanol, Asphalt [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center is moving down. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - **LPG**: High basis and high positions suggest potential for a rebound. Consider a light - long position [1][11]. - **L**: Demand is improving marginally. Consider buying on dips [1][16]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the start of the peak season. Consider buying on dips [1][23]. - **PVC**: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [1][30]. - **PX**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Hold short positions cautiously and buy put options [1][35]. - **PTA**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted [1][39]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, and sell call options [2][43]. - **Methanol**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and port inventory is accumulating. Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][46]. - **Urea**: Cost support exists, and exports are relatively good. Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][50]. - **Asphalt**: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish. Try a light - short position [2]. - **Propylene**: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season. Buy on dips [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices weakened, with WTI down 1.24%, Brent down 0.77%, and SC up 0.02% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is decreasing, and OPEC+ production increase is pressuring prices. There is still room for price compression [5]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC's August production increased, and EIA data shows changes in US inventories [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 12, the PG main contract closed at 3813 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is weak, but the basis is high, and positions are rising. There is potential for a rebound [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try a light - long position and focus on the range of [3750 - 3850] [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7329 yuan/ton [15]. - **Industry News**: Downstream demand is increasing, and prices are expected to rise slightly [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is improving marginally, and supply pressure is increasing marginally. Consider buying on dips [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7200 - 7400] [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7091 yuan/ton [21]. - **Industry News**: International oil prices are rising, but demand is insufficient. Prices may fluctuate [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is shifting, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. Consider buying on dips [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7050 - 7200] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 contract closed at 5047 yuan/ton [28]. - **Industry News**: Production is normal, but fundamentals are weak. Prices may be stable [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait to go short after the rebound and focus on the range of [4900 - 5150] [30]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PX spot in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6726 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Cautiously bearish [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and focus on the range of [6690 - 6780] [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, PTA in East China was 4670 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4684 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Cautiously bearish [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted. Focus on the range of [4670 - 4720] [40]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the ethylene glycol spot in East China was 4456 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4384 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Cautiously bearish [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, sell call options, and focus on the range of [4400 - 4440] [44]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the methanol spot in East China was 2393 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2383 yuan/ton [45]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening. Bearish [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract, and take partial profit on the MA9 - 1 spread. Focus on the range of [2360 - 2395] [47]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1728 yuan/ton [49]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, but exports are relatively good. Cost support exists. Cautiously bullish [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [1720 - 1750] [51]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try a light - short position and focus on the range of [3450 - 3550] [2]. Propylene - **Basic Logic**: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [2].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美俄即将会面，中美关税再延缓 90 天，美通胀数据增加降息预期，短期盘面盘整。 | | | 回调做多 | 中长期多国货币政策宽松预期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低，长期黄 | | ★★ | | 金继续战略配置。谨防短期特朗普普京会面对盘面冲击【770-788】 | | | | 白银逻辑不变，跟随黄金大幅波动，中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺 | | 白银 | 止跌做多 | 激等支撑作用明显，工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。短期白 | | ★★ | | | | | | 银品种弹性较大，短期等止跌试多长期做多。【9100-9300】 | | 铜 | | 中美关税再延期 90 天，美国通胀低于预期，美联储 9 月降息概率回升，宏观情绪回 | | ★★★ | 多单持有 | 暖，市场风险偏好走高。LME 铜累库幅度放缓，国内铜社会库存偏紧，建议多单继 | | | | 续持有，中长期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【78000，81000】 | | | | 宏观情绪回暖，市场 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 气候中性预期，美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，8 月累库速度 | | 豆粕 | 警惕数据调整 | 较 7 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关键成本支撑。在基本面偏弱及 | | | | 中美贸易关税成本支撑的多空因素交织作用下，大区间行情对待。昨日受中国公布 | | ★ | 风险 | 对加籽反倾销调查结果提振，跟随菜粕价格上涨。关注本周三凌晨 8 月 USDA 报告 | | | | 美豆单产情况，市场预计环比趋向调增风险，追多谨慎对待。主力【3030，3090】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽新年单产存在调减风险。国内油厂菜籽环比去库菜 | | | | 粕环比累库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。8 月至 10 月菜籽进口同比 | | 菜粕 | | 大幅偏低，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧作加籽的强势。对菜粕价格构成较 | | ★★ | 短线偏多 | 强支持。现货市场方面，豆粕对菜粕消费替代较大。昨日中国发布对加籽反倾销调 | | | | 查结果，叠加报告公 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 供需方面，铁水产量环比微降，绝对水平仍高，螺纹产量及表观需求环比上升，库存有 | | | 谨慎看多 | 所增加。建筑钢材成交低位运行，整体仍体现淡季特征。唐山独立轧钢企业阅兵期间停 | | ★ | | 产，供应端政策继续扰动市场，短期或有走强。【3220，3280】 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。热卷出口利润回落明显，后期 | | | 谨慎看多 | 出口或受一定影响。宏观强预期对下方形成支撑，唐山阅兵期间限产消息或刺激短期有 | | ★ | | 所走强。【3430，3490】 | | 铁矿石 | 短多参与 | 基本面看，铁水产量再降。港口、钢厂库存同增，钢厂低库存补库带动阶段性价格坚挺。 | | ★ | | 基本面主导下，矿价偏强。【780,815】 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货已有五轮提涨，焦企利润边际有所改善，绝对水平仍然有限，生产积极性一般。 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭供需总体相对平衡，产量及库存偏稳运行，变化不大。近期煤炭限产减产等消息再 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 ★ 谨慎看空 供给压力不断上升，油价中枢继续下移，关注周五美俄会谈。油价进入旺 季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 压力较大，但下降空间在逐渐缩小。供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页 岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点；地缘端重点关注本周五美俄会谈。策略：买入看 跌期权。SC【490-505】 LPG ★ 谨慎看多 成本端企稳叠加高基差，持仓升至近期高位，反弹动力上升。成本端油价 有所企稳；基差处于高位，估值中性偏低；下游化工需求尚可，PDH 开工 率 70%左右；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅上升，港口库存上升。 策略：轻仓试多。PG【3750-3850】 L ★ 空头反弹 成本止跌，需求边际好转，现货价格连续上涨。近期多数装置陆续重启， 国内外价差扩大，转口意愿提升，供给压力边际增加，社会库存连续 6 周 累库。但农膜旺季即将开始，开工率连续 3 周上行，关注补库节奏。绝对 价格低估值，远月合约具有抗跌性。策略：旺季临近，逢低试多。L 【7200-7400】 PP ★ 空头反弹 丙烯现货涨价，成本支撑好转，下游成交乏力，现货小幅下跌。上游 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | 1 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | T | | 8 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美俄即将会面，中美关税或被再延缓 90 天，特朗普不对黄金加征关税，短期盘面波 | | | 回调做多 | 动剧烈。中长期多国货币政策宽松预期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低， | | ★★ | | 长期黄金继续战略配置。谨防短期特朗普普京会面对盘面冲击【770-788】 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金大幅波动，中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺激等支撑作 | | | 止跌做多 | 用明显，工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。短期白银品种弹性 | | ★★ | | | | | | 较大，短期等止跌试多长期做多。【9100-9300】 | | 铜 | | 美国通胀数据即将公布，市场预期受关税影响通胀回升，美元反弹铜价承压。LME | | | 回调试多 | 铜累库幅度放缓，国内铜社会库存偏紧，精废价差收敛刺激精铜消费，建议回调逢 | | ★★ | | 低试多，中长期依旧看好 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (★★), Cotton (★), Red dates (★), Live pigs (★★) [1] - **Large - range market**: Soybean meal (★), Rapeseed meal (★) [1] Core Views - **Soybean meal**: In the context of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it should be treated as a large - range market. Although there was inventory reduction this week, there is a risk of a month - on - month increase in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious when going long [1][5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: With the recovery of global rapeseed production year - on - year but the risk of a yield reduction in Canadian rapeseed, and considering factors such as import volume, tariffs, and consumption substitution, it should be treated as a large - range market. Pay attention to planting weather, data adjustments in the US agricultural report, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1][7]. - **Palm oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The trend is mainly to go long on dips, but beware of the risk of a near - month squeeze [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tight, and there is a certain support at the bottom. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the extension of Sino - US tariffs, there is a high probability of an improvement in downstream demand. Consider the opportunity to go long on dips [1][14]. - **Red dates**: There are still great differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and there is speculation risk. In the short term, the speculation period around the opening price is relatively long, and the recent inventory reduction speed has accelerated, which is still favorable for the long - term trend. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][17]. - **Live pigs**: The current situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". The short - term and medium - term supply pressure is high, but the capacity reduction of leading enterprises may help the far - month contracts rise. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity to establish long positions in far - month contracts on dips [1][20]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3072 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3020.57 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [3]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [4]. - **Trading situation**: On August 5, the far - month basis trading volume increased significantly, reaching a three - year high [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2724 yuan/ton, down 1.77% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2707.32 yuan/ton, down 0.66% [6]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 13.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 million tons [7]. - **Demand situation**: Due to the oversupply of soybean meal, the substitution effect of soybean meal on rapeseed meal is enhanced, squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal [7]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9218 yuan/ton, up 2.65% from the previous day. The national average price is 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [8]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.76 million tons, an increase of 3.02% [9]. - **Export situation**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared with the same period last month [9]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2509's closing price is 13880 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.09% to 15179 yuan/ton [12]. - **International situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased by 2% week - on - week to 53%, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area increased to 82%. India's cotton planting area increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress was 24% [12]. - **Domestic situation**: Xinjiang's new cotton is mostly in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 200.67 million tons. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to start in 1 - 2 weeks [13][14]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601's closing price is 11685 yuan/ton, up 3.32% from the previous day [16]. - **Production area situation**: The new - season jujubes are in the fruit - setting stage. The estimated new - season output is between 56 - 62 million tons, but there are different views on the reduction range [16]. - **Inventory situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and the inventory reduction speed accelerated [16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511's closing price is 14180 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous day. The domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply situation**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union's sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 increased, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [19]. - **Demand situation**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [19].