1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot-rolled Coil, Manganese Silicon [1] - **Bullish**: Coke, Coking Coal [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: Output and apparent demand decreased month-on-month, showing off-season characteristics of weak supply and demand. Inventory decreased month-on-month, with a decline weaker than the seasonal pattern. The fundamentals are generally balanced but weak. It is currently near the previous low, testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels [1][4]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Apparent demand and output both declined, and inventory increased slightly against the season, indicating certain inventory pressure. The falling hot metal output weakens the demand support for raw materials. It runs in a medium-term range and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [1][4]. - Iron Ore: This week, hot metal output decreased significantly month-on-month due to environmental controls in Tangshan and maintenance of some loss-making steel mills. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The arrival of foreign ores has increased significantly, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bearish. With the exhaustion of phased macro positive factors, the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1][6]. - Coke: The third round of price increases is gradually being implemented, and there are differences in the market regarding the fourth round. Coke enterprises' profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in a loss state. The falling hot metal output, poor steel mill profits, and increased blast furnace maintenance are observed. However, the raw material inventory level is moderately low, and the short-term restocking enthusiasm is acceptable. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and it follows the coking coal price to run strongly [1][9]. - Coking Coal: Affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, the coal mine开工率 has decreased again month-on-month. The uncertainty of the political turmoil in Mongolia remains. Currently, the coal mine inventory level is low, pre - sales orders are sufficient, and the overall shipment situation is still good. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains tight, and the price is expected to run strongly [1][12]. - Manganese Silicon: The supply in the production area has decreased slightly but is still at a high level in the same period. Downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase but at a slower pace. The price of manganese ore at ports has slightly increased, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price [1][16]. - Ferrosilicon: The开工率 in the production area continues to increase, downstream demand weakens marginally, and inventory continues to increase significantly compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to the situation of re - warehousing after warrant cancellation. Although the short - term coal price is running strongly and provides some cost support, its own fundamentals have turned to a loose state, and it is advisable to short on rallies [1][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3037 with a rise of 13; Hot-rolled Coil 01 is at 3256 with a rise of 3. There are also detailed price and spread data for different contracts and spot prices [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Rebar shows off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand, and hot-rolled coil has inventory pressure. Both are affected by the falling hot metal output [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar tests the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels; hot-rolled coil runs in a medium - term range and may fluctuate in the short term [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Hot metal output decreased due to environmental controls and mill maintenance. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory, and the arrival of foreign ores has increased significantly. The static fundamentals are neutral to bearish [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, as production cuts and increased supply put pressure on the ore price [7]. 3.3 Coke - **Price and Data**: There are detailed data on futures contracts, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and profit data [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The third - round price increase is being implemented, and there are differences in the fourth - round increase. Coke enterprises' profits are slightly improved but mostly in loss. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bullish, following the coking coal price to run strongly [10]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price and Data**: There are detailed data on futures contracts, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and other data [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, and the uncertainty of Mongolia's political situation remains. The supply - demand pattern is tight [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bullish, with the price expected to run strongly [13]. 3.5 Ferrous Alloys - **Price Information**: There are detailed price, spread, and weekly production and inventory data for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Manganese silicon supply has decreased slightly but is still high, and downstream demand has weakened. Ferrosilicon's开工率 has increased, and inventory has increased significantly [16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish on manganese silicon due to short - term cost support; bearish on ferrosilicon as its fundamentals are loose, and it is advisable to short on rallies [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report doesn't provide a unified industry - wide investment rating but gives individual ratings for each metal variety: - Long - term long positions are recommended for gold, silver, and copper [1]. - Rebound - selling short is suggested for zinc [1]. - A bearish view is taken on lead, tin, and nickel, with lead under pressure, tin and nickel having a high - level bearish trend [1]. - Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range, and polycrystalline silicon recommends buying on dips [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a high - level adjustment [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various factors such as employment data, government shutdowns, inflation data, and geopolitical situations in the United States, which have an impact on the prices of different metals. It provides investment strategies for each metal based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market trends [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Long - term long positions are recommended. Gold has support due to factors like the US government shutdown, the debate on Trump's tariff legality, and geopolitical tensions. Silver follows related markets and has long - term demand supported by global policies [1][3]. - **Main Logic**: The US employment market is weakening, with a significant increase in corporate lay - offs in October. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff legality may lead to a large - scale tax refund. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the restructuring of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider entering the market for the medium and long - term. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11,200 for silver. Hold long - term value - allocation positions [4]. Copper - **Core View**: Long - term holding is recommended, and short - term light - position buying on dips is suggested [1][7]. - **Main Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased year - on - year, and this trend is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. The US employment data is weakening, the government shutdown is ongoing, inflation data is lacking, and the Fed's hawkish stance has returned [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips with a light position in the short - term. Hold long - term strategic positions. For industrial hedging, add option protection, reduce positions, and strictly control risks. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of 84,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,500 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for London copper [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Rebound - selling short is recommended in the medium and long - term, and short - term range - bound trading is expected [1][10]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The market expects domestic smelters to reduce production in November due to raw material shortages. Consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand is weakening [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price rebounds. In the medium and long - term, maintain the view of selling short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 3,000 - 3,100 US dollars/ton for London zinc [10]. Aluminium - **Core View**: Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall in the short - term [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminium production has decreased, while China's production capacity remains high. The inventory reduction of aluminium ingots in major consumption areas has slowed down, and consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price of Shanghai aluminium rebounds in the short - term. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Core View**: Nickel is expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas nickel inventories have reached a high level, and domestic refined nickel inventories have been accumulating. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has weakened [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is 119,000 - 121,000 yuan/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. The total inventory has been decreasing for 11 consecutive weeks, and the destocking amplitude has expanded. Although production is increasing, terminal demand remains strong [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of 79,800 - 82,000 yuan/ton [21].

Report Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bearish [1] Core Views - **Rebar**: It shows characteristics of weak supply and demand in the off - season, with high inventory in Hangzhou. The fundamentals are generally balanced but weak. The significant decline in hot metal production weakens the support for raw materials. It has limited upward and downward drivers, maintaining a range - bound operation in the medium term. Currently, it has fallen near the previous low, testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels [1][4]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Both apparent demand and production have rebounded, and inventory has decreased slightly but remains higher than the same period in previous years. The large decline in hot metal production weakens the demand support for raw materials. It operates in a range in the medium term and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: This week, there is a significant week - on - week decrease in hot metal due to environmental protection control in Tangshan and loss - driven maintenance of some steel mills. Steel mill maintenance has increased, and the sustainability of maintenance needs to be monitored. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The arrival of foreign ore has increased significantly, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bearish. With the exhaustion of short - term macro - positive factors, the ore price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [1][6]. - **Coke**: The third round of price increase is expected to be fully implemented, and there are differences in the market regarding the fourth round. Recently, the profits of coke enterprises have improved slightly but are still mostly in a loss state. The hot metal production has declined from a high level, and the steel mill inventory is at a moderately low level, with short - term replenishment enthusiasm. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and it follows the coking coal price in a range - bound operation [1][9]. - **Coking Coal**: On the supply side, the coal mine operating rate has decreased slightly due to safety inspections and underground problems. There is still uncertainty in Mongolia's political situation, and the subsequent port traffic needs to be monitored. The exchange has issued an opinion announcement on the delivery quality standard, but the applicable contract is not clear, and it has limited impact on listed contracts. Currently, coal mine shipments are still good, and the short - term supply - demand pattern remains tight, with prices expected to be strong [1][12]. - **Silicomanganese**: The production area supply is still at a high level in the same period, downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase compared to the previous period. The price of manganese ore has risen slightly, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price, but it is still cautiously bearish [1][16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The production area supply remains at a high level, downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has increased significantly compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to the re - warehousing situation after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have become loose, and there is upward pressure on short - term coal prices, so it is treated bearishly [1][16]. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3024 with a decline of 20; Rebar 05 is at 3094 with a decline of 14; Rebar 10 is at 3133 with a decline of 11. Hot Rolled Coil 01 is at 3253 with a decline of 12; Hot Rolled Coil 05 is at 3260 with a decline of 12; Hot Rolled Coil 10 is at 3283 with a decline of 13. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also show certain declines [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For rebar, it has limited upward and downward drivers, maintaining a range - bound operation in the medium term and may fluctuate at low levels near the support of 3000. For hot - rolled coil, it operates in a range in the medium term and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Not provided in the given text. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish. Due to production reduction disturbances and increased supply, the ore price is under pressure [7]. Coke - **Price Information**: The 1 - month contract of coke is at 1753.0, up 24.0 from the previous value; the 01 basis is - 108, down 24.0. Other contract prices and basis also show corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions have increased to varying degrees [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and there are differences in the fourth - round price increase [10]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The 1 - month contract of coking coal is at 1268.5, up 15.5 from the previous value; the 01 basis is 331, down 15.5. Other contract prices and basis also show corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions remain stable [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and prices are expected to be strong [13]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: Manganese silicon 01 is at 5776, up 22; Ferrosilicon 01 is at 5560, up 50. Spot prices in different regions and basis also show corresponding changes [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For silicomanganese, it is cautiously bearish as the cost side provides some short - term support. For ferrosilicon, it is bearishly treated due to loose fundamentals and upward pressure on coal prices [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2][4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Glass, soda ash: Bearish consolidation [7] Core Views - Crude oil: Supply surplus in the off - season is the core driver, and oil prices are under downward pressure. OPEC+ plans to expand production in December and pause in early next year [2][10]. - LPG: Cost - side is bearish, and the price of LPG is weakening. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved, the cost - side impact is significant [2]. - L: Cost support is weakening, and the bearish trend continues. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand lacks replenishment momentum [2]. - PP: The inventory pressure in the industrial chain is high, and the bearish trend continues. Oil - based cost support is insufficient [2]. - PVC: Low valuation vs. weak reality, the bearish trend continues. Pay attention to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand contradiction [2]. - PX: Supply - demand is short - term improved, but oil prices are under pressure. Look for opportunities to short at high prices [2]. - PTA: Supply - demand is slightly improved, but oil prices are under pressure. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [4]. - MEG: Low valuation vs. oil price pressure, the trend is weakly oscillating. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [4]. - Methanol: The fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to the inflection point of inventory destocking. High inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices [4]. - Urea: Low valuation vs. weak fundamentals. Consider going long on a small scale in the medium - to - long - term. Supply pressure increases, and winter demand and export benefits are limited [4]. - Natural gas: With the decline in temperature, the demand peak season is coming, and gas prices are likely to rise. The demand side has support, and the supply side is sufficient [7]. - Asphalt: Cost is weakening, and supply - demand is both decreasing. Asphalt is under downward pressure. The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient [7]. - Glass: Capital game is intense, and it is recommended to participate with caution. The fundamental pattern is loose, and the inventory is high [7]. - Soda ash: Inventory is slightly destocked, and the bearish trend rebounds. Supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is mostly rigid [7]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 1.59%, Brent dropped 1.43%, and SC dropped 0.67% [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States may reduce India's oil purchases. The core driver is supply surplus in the off - season, and global crude oil inventory is accelerating accumulation [10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ will expand production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 next year. Russia's oil exports to India have decreased. US crude oil inventory has increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing short positions, and consider adding short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On November 5, the PG main contract closed at 4,247 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - side crude oil. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand side has some resilience. The inventory in ports has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory is slowly decreasing. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand lacks replenishment momentum. Oil prices may decline in the medium - term [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Up - and mid - stream inventories are at a high level. Demand is at the end of the peak season, and there is high inventory - removal pressure. Oil - based cost support is insufficient [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PP [6450 - 6600] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices have dropped, and cost support is weakening. The inventory is high, and the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is being compressed [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the range of V [4550 - 4700] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are reducing load, and overseas devices are increasing load. Demand is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels. Oil prices are in a loose supply - demand pattern [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at low valuations. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the range of PX [6560 - 6660] [30]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA01 contract closed at 4,586 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees are low. Later device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, and supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at low valuations. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the range of TA [4540 - 4610] [33]. MEG - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices are increasing load. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3880 - 3940] [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices. Look for opportunities in MA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Pay attention to the range of MA [2095 - 2145] [41]. Urea - **Market Review**: The UR01 contract closed at 1,625 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing. Demand has slightly improved, but winter demand and export benefits are limited. Inventory is at a high level but is decreasing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long on a small scale in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the range of UR [1615 - 1645] [45]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 4, the NG main contract closed at 4.573 US dollars per million British thermal units [47]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks are released, and the demand side has support due to the arrival of the heating season. The supply side is sufficient [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.262 - 4.458]. The demand for heating is increasing, but the upward pressure is rising [49]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 5, the BU main contract closed at 3,166 yuan/ton [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly affected by the cost - side crude oil. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is increasing [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on a small scale. The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3200] [53]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1,095 yuan/ton [56]. - **Basic Logic**: Daily melting volume is low but increasing. The fundamental pattern is loose, and inventory is high. Deep - processing orders are at a low level [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The pattern is loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the range of FG [1060 - 1110] [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton [60]. - **Basic Logic**: Factory inventory is slightly decreasing but remains high. Demand is mostly rigid, and supply is in a loose pattern [61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [61].

Mysteel：截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日，全国港口大豆库存 962.9 万吨，环比上周减少 10.20 万吨； 同比去年增加 288.44 万吨。125 家油厂大豆库存为大豆库存 710.79 万吨，较上周减少 40.50 万吨，减 幅 5.39%，同比去年增加 160.05 万吨，增幅 29.06%；豆粕库存 115.3 万吨，较上周增加 9.84 万吨， 增幅 9.33%，同比去年增加 16.89 万吨，增幅 17.16%；全国主要地区的 50 家饲料企业样本调查显示， 截止到 2025 年 10 月 31 日（第 44 周），国内饲料企业豆粕库存天数（物理库存天数）为 8.02 天，较 10 月 24 日增加 0.06 天，涨幅 0.78%，较去年同期增加 7.22%。 现货方面，华东市场油厂开机相对高位，催提现象仍较普遍，终端采购补库节奏观望中平缓。 中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决，为此，昨日豆粕价格继续炒作收涨。 短线看多，原多单可暂继续持有，追多需谨慎。关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 注仅为当前市场多空力量的客观对比，不预示未来价格必然向该方向运行（如"红色"不代表" ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 ★ | 长线做多 | 政府继续关门、关税合法性继续辩论、地缘交恶。但数据意外走好。美国两党表态 来看，有望中旬结束停摆。黄金短线等企稳做多。中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，地缘 秩序重塑，央行继续买黄金，战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 ★ | 长线做多 | 白银跟随相关市场波动，基本面上来看，长期全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持 续变，宽松货币投放提供流动性。11200 支撑较强。长线做多持有 | | 铜 ★ | 长线持有 铜依旧看多。 | 特朗普督促尽快重启政府，美国 10 月 ADP 就业数据超预期，市场恐慌情绪缓和，隔 夜铜止跌企稳，建议回调逢低轻仓试多，中长期，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发， | | 锌 ★ | 国内冶炼厂冬储备库积极，锌精矿加工费大幅回落，消费淡季，需求转弱，隔夜锌 | | --- | --- | | | 铜依旧看多。 反弹承压 窄幅震荡，中长期看，锌供增需减，维持反弹逢高沽空观点。 | 铅 ★ 反弹承压 河北等地铅生产企业受环保影响，下游终端消费旺季尚可，但中大型铅蓄电池企 业减产拖累 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish [1] - Silver: Long - term bullish [1] - Copper: High - level adjustment in the short - term, long - term bullish [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term profit - taking for long positions, long - term short - selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: Rise and then fall [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait for stabilization [1] Core Views - The shutdown of the US government has led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in capital markets including the precious metals market. Gold and silver are expected to stop falling in the short - term and are long - term bullish due to factors like global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. However, sentiment fluctuation risks need to be guarded against [2][3]. - Copper is under high - level adjustment in the short - term due to factors such as the strengthening US dollar and the approaching consumption off - season. But in the long - term, it remains bullish because of tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][6]. - Zinc is facing a situation where supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. In the short - term, long positions should take profits at high levels, and in the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term as the terminal consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, with overseas supply shrinking and domestic supply remaining high [1][13]. - Nickel prices are weak as overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the terminal consumption of downstream stainless steel is fading [1][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are under high - level adjustment. Although there are short - term shocks from复产 news, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize [1][20]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver Market Review - The shutdown of the US government and other events have led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in the precious metals market [2]. Basic Logic - The US government shutdown may set a new record, and the market is facing liquidity depletion. There are also internal differences within the Fed regarding the December interest rate cut. In the long - term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, both gold and silver have stopped falling. For the medium - and long - term, consider entering the market after stabilization. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper opened lower overnight and is under high - level adjustment [6]. Industry Logic - In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased. The consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the market is worried about the economy as the manufacturing PMIs in China and the US have weakened in October [6]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the US government shutdown, the strengthening US dollar is suppressing commodities. Copper opened lower overnight and tested the 85000 support level. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels near the lower moving averages. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. For industrial hedging, options protection can be added, positions should be reduced, and strict risk control should be implemented. In the long - term, copper is still bullish [7]. Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc rebounded but faced pressure [9]. Industry Logic - The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The profit of refined zinc enterprises has slightly increased. The consumption is entering the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window has opened [9]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the decline in macro and sector sentiment, Shanghai zinc tested the 22800 level and then fell back. Short - term long positions should take profits at high levels. In the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. The domestic production capacity is high, and the terminal consumption is fading. For alumina, overseas shipments have decreased due to the rainy season in Guinea, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction [13]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take profits at high levels for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, and pay attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate. The main operating range is [21000 - 21700] [14]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have slightly stabilized, and stainless steel shows a relatively weak trend [16]. Industry Logic - The overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. Overseas and domestic nickel inventories are increasing, and the terminal consumption of stainless steel is approaching the end of the peak season [17]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to the downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 122000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a reduction of over 70,000 lots in a day and a decline of over 4% [19]. Industry Logic - The market is spreading news of复产, which may impact the market in the short - term. However, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking for 11 weeks, and the terminal demand remains strong [20]. Strategy Recommendation - It is advisable to wait and see and wait for the market to stabilize within the range of [76800 - 78800] [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs. The core views for each variety are as follows: - Soybean meal: Short - term oscillation. Concerned about Sino - US trade and Brazilian soybean planting weather [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal: Short - term oscillation. Focus on Sino - Canadian trade and Sino - US trade negotiation results [1][5]. - Palm oil: Short - term decline. Existing short positions can be held, but new short positions should be taken with caution [1][7]. - Soybean oil: Short - term consolidation. Pay attention to US biodiesel policy and Sino - US trade [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Short - term stop - falling consolidation. Monitor Sino - Canadian trade progress [1]. - Cotton: Short - term correction. Be wary of the risk of a slight decline during the pressure transfer to inland areas [1][11]. - Jujube: Cautiously bearish. Short - selling operations should be carried out based on purchase price changes and progress [1][13]. - Live pigs: Be vigilant against rebounds. Consider short - selling on rebounds for near - month contracts and pay attention to the 03 contract [1][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of October 31, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased, oil - mill soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Spot prices showed a slight decline, and the futures price also decreased slightly [2][3]. - **Analysis Logic**: Good rainfall in Brazil in the next 15 days, reduced sales pressure on oil mills, and the current tariff situation still supports the cost of domestic soybean meal. The main contract is expected to be in a large - range market [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of October 31, coastal oil - mill菜籽 inventory was 0, rapeseed meal inventory remained unchanged, and unexecuted contracts decreased. Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices also increased [4][5]. - **Analysis Logic**: High port inventory and off - season consumption pressure the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports far - month contracts. The recent statement from Canada has cooled the expectation of tariff improvement [1][5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased. Futures and spot prices both declined, and the trading volume increased [6][7]. - **Analysis Logic**: Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. Malaysia is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in October and November. Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 are negative factors [1][7]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested; in India, new cotton is being listed; in Pakistan, new cotton has been listed; in Brazil, the processing progress is slower than last year. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, and commercial inventory has recovered to the same - period level [8][9][10]. - **Analysis Logic**: The increase in supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries pressures the market, but India's MSP provides some support. In China, the cost of new cotton supports the bottom, but the increase in inventory and weak demand limit the upward movement [1][11]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: Xinjiang jujubes are concentrated for harvest. The expected reduction in production has been adjusted, and inventory has increased. Futures prices have fallen significantly, and spot prices are relatively stable [12][13]. - **Analysis Logic**: The large - scale harvest makes the new - season output clearer. High - inventory old jujubes and low acceptance of new jujubes in the market lead to an expected weakening of the market [1][13]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In October, large - scale enterprises over - sold, and the planned output in November decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises increased, and the output decreased. Futures prices showed mixed trends, and spot prices decreased slightly [14][15]. - **Analysis Logic**: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high due to the postponed supply from second - fattening in October. The market should be vigilant against short - term rebounds, and pay attention to the 03 contract and anti - arbitrage opportunities [1][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the products in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, and asphalt [2][4][6]. - Natural gas is rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [6]. - Glass is rated as "Bearish with Rebound" [6]. - Soda ash is rated as "Bearish with Consolidation" [6]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical risks. Most products face downward pressure due to oversupply or weakening cost support, while natural gas has upward potential due to increased demand in the consumption season [2][4][6]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.80%, Brent down 0.69%, and SC unchanged from the previous period [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply in the off - season. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause production increases in Q1 next year. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation [10][11]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [455 - 470] [12]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the PG main contract closed at 4,266 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost - end oil price. The cost is bearish as Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price again. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical industry's operating rate has increased, but the inventory at ports has risen [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [17]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, and cost support is weakening. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is in the peak season but lacks restocking motivation [21]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices and hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6750 - 6900] [21]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at the same - period high. The demand is at the end of the "Silver October", and there is a high pressure to destock. The oil - based cost support is insufficient [25]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices and hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6450 - 6600] [25]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support is weakening as the price of calcium carbide falls. The social inventory is stable, and the fundamentals maintain a high - inventory and high - warrant structure [29]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a high contango. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious when short - chasing. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4550 - 4700] [29]. PX - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has domestic production cuts and overseas production increases. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high. The cost - end oil price rebounds but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [30]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of PX at [6550 - 6650] [31]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA01 closed at 4,586 yuan/ton [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the later - stage device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, which will relieve the supply pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory accumulation in November [33]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4530 - 4590] [34]. MEG - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expected inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [36]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3870 - 3950] [37]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the spot price rebound. The supply pressure is large, and the demand performance is average. The cost support is weakly stable [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices and consider the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the price range of MA at [2091 - 2141] [42]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 closed at 1,625 yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is at a high level but has decreased recently. The valuation is low [44]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the price range of UR at [1610 - 1640] [46]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the NG main contract closed at 4.501 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 3.02% [48][49]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical risk of sanctions on Russia has been released, and the demand for heating has increased with the temperature drop, which supports the gas price [50]. - **Strategy**: The rising demand in the consumption season supports the gas price, but the supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure is increasing. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.262 - 4.458] [51]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the BU main contract closed at 3,193 yuan/ton, down 1.24% [53][54]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost - end oil price. The cost support is decreasing, and the supply and demand are both weakening. The inventory has decreased [55]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. Lightly short - allocate. Pay attention to the price range of BU at [3100 - 3200] [56]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton [59]. - **Basic Logic**: The daily melting volume has increased slightly, the fundamentals are in a loose pattern, and the capital game is intense. The inventory in factories is slowly decreasing but remains high [60]. - **Strategy**: The loose pattern is hard to change, and the medium - to - long - term rebound is bearish. Pay attention to the price range of FG at [1060 - 1110] [60]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton [63]. - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory is slightly decreasing but still at a high level. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply is in a loose pattern due to high - production periods [64]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices. The single - side rebound is bearish. Pay attention to the price range of SA at [1170 - 1220] [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bearish" [1] Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the steel and related raw material markets shows weak supply and demand in the off - season. There are various influencing factors such as production changes, inventory adjustments, and policy impacts, leading to a situation where prices of most varieties are expected to run within a range with short - term weakening trends [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Variety View**: Rebar's weekly production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory continued to decline, and it conforms to the off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. Hot - rolled coil's apparent demand and production both rebounded, and inventory decreased slightly but remained higher than the same period in previous years. Iron - making water production decreased significantly, weakening the support for raw materials. The Sino - US meeting ended, and tariff easing measures were implemented [1][4] - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: For rebar, the upward and downward drivers are not strong, and it will run within a range in the medium term, and may face short - term weakening at the current position. For hot - rolled coil, it will also run within a range in the medium term and may have a short - term correction [1][5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: This week, iron - making water production decreased significantly due to environmental protection control in Tangshan and some steel mills' loss - based maintenance. Steel mills reduced inventory, and port inventory increased. Overseas ore arrivals increased significantly, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bearish. The phased macro - positive factors have been exhausted, and the short - term ore price will fluctuate weakly [1][6] - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish. Reduced production disruptions and increased supply put pressure on ore prices [1][7] Coke - **Variety View**: The expectation of the third round of coke price increase is strengthening, and the game between coke and steel enterprises is obvious. Recently, coke enterprises' profits have improved slightly but are still mostly in a loss state. Iron - making water production has declined from a high level, steel mills' inventory is at a medium - low level, and the short - term replenishment enthusiasm is average. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and it will run within a range following the coking coal price [1][9] - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][10] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: On the supply side, the coal mine operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month due to safety inspections and underground problems. There is still uncertainty in Mongolia's political situation, and the subsequent port traffic should be monitored. The exchange released opinions on the delivery quality standard, but the applicable contract is not clear yet, and it has limited impact on the listed contracts. Iron - making water production decreased significantly, and the demand side weakened marginally. Currently, the supply - demand pattern is still relatively healthy, and the price will run within a range [1][12] - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][13] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Variety View**: For ferromanganese, the production area supply level is still at a high level in the same period, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory continued to increase compared with the previous period. For ferrosilicon, the production area supply level remained high, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory increased significantly compared with the previous period. Attention should be paid to the re - warehousing situation after the warehouse receipt cancellation [1][16] - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: For ferromanganese, the manganese ore price increased slightly, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price, so it is cautiously bearish. For ferrosilicon, its fundamentals have become looser, and there is upward pressure on short - term coal prices, so it should be treated bearishly [1][17]