Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a pattern of strong supply and demand. New production capacities are being released, and maintenance devices are restarting, leading to a significant increase in production. Although social inventories are accumulating, they are still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm [4]. - The PP market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge, with enterprises and traders' inventories accumulating, while downstream maintains low inventories. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm during the peak season [8]. - The propylene market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price trend is more likely to be range - bound. In August, the weak pattern of the propylene market is difficult to change, and the monthly average price is expected to fluctuate around 6350 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic Market - **This Week's Review**: The L2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7251, 7344], with an opening price of 7312 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7290 yuan/ton. The market followed cost and sentiment for range - bound fluctuations. The far - month L2601 contract was firm [3][16]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Production is expected to increase by 1.5 tons week - on - week. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the past five years. Social inventories are accumulating but are still at a relatively low level. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks [4]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The L2509 contract should focus on the range of [7200 - 7350]. Hold the long LP09 arbitrage. Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [6]. 3.2 PP Market - **This Week's Review**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7047, 7108], with an opening price of 7098 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7062 yuan/ton. The market followed macro - sentiment fluctuations, with significantly reduced volatility and a downward - shifting center of gravity. The fundamentals showed little supply - demand contradiction, with both supply and demand being weak [7][55]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge [8]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The PP2509 contract should focus on the range of [7000 - 7200]. Wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Propylene Market - **This Week's Review**: The PL2601 contract fluctuated in the range of [6416, 6555], with an opening price of 6480 yuan/ton and a closing price of 6451 yuan/ton [10][83]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: A new propylene plant in Ningbo has produced products and plans to export. A large number of propylene shipments may enter the market in the short term, suppressing the US dollar market price. The demand side has seen some improvement in production enthusiasm. The market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price is expected to be range - bound [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks at the current low price level. The PL2601 contract should focus on the range of [6300 - 6500]. Hold the long PP - PL01 spread arbitrage [12]. 3.4 Macro Review and Outlook - **This Week's Review**: The overall weekly increase was PVC > polyolefin = commodity > energy - chemical. Coking coal continued its upward trend, and PVC was more affected by the cost - side coal. WTI oil prices fell below the key support level, and the oil - chemical sector was weak [13]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Pay attention to tariff dynamics and domestic anti - involution policy changes [13].

1. Report Sector Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bearish [1] - PP: Cautiously bearish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply glut leads to weakening oil prices, but downside support is rising; short - term there may be a small rebound [1]. - LPG has a low valuation, and its position has risen to a recent high, increasing the rebound momentum [1]. - Cost support for L has weakened, while the spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - The cost of PP continues to fall, the total commercial inventory continues to accumulate, and the export profit margin has turned negative, with weak downstream restocking power [1]. - The upstream operation of PVC has increased, and the social inventory has accumulated for 7 consecutive weeks; the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [1]. - The supply - demand of PX is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high; the cost support of oil prices is expected to weaken [1]. - The operation of PTA devices has little change, the demand is weak, and the cost support is expected to weaken [1]. - The operation of ethylene glycol devices has increased slightly, the arrival and import are lower than the same period, and the demand is weak [1]. - As the delivery month approaches, the market focus of glass has shifted from macro - policy expectations to its own fundamentals, and the inventory has stopped falling and started to increase [2]. - The pattern of the soda ash industry has not improved significantly, the supply is high, and the inventory has increased [2]. - The supply and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong are abundant, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially, showing a supply - surplus situation [2]. - The domestic methanol maintenance devices have resumed production, the overseas devices' load has increased, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be high; the demand is expected to weaken [2]. - The operation load of urea devices is expected to increase, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is relatively good [2]. - The cost of asphalt has compression space, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, and the supply - demand has decreased, with a neutral - bearish fundamental situation [2]. - The spot price of propylene in East China and Shandong has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the downstream demand has not kept up, with obvious surplus pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI down 0.73%, Brent down 0.69%, and SC up slightly by 0.02% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The support of the peak season for oil prices is gradually decreasing, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices is gradually rising. The oil price still has compression space, but the downside support is gradually strengthening, and it may be suppressed around $60 in the medium - to - long term [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In May, US crude oil production increased by 24,000 barrels per day to 13.488 million barrels per day; in July, Kazakhstan supplied 160,000 tons of oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline; in July, the crude oil shipped from Russian ports was 3.46 million barrels per day. As of August 3, the arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries decreased by 190,000 tons, a decline of 8.18%. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. After taking profit on short positions, you can wait and see. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 505] [6]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On August 7, the PG main contract closed at 3,837 yuan/ton, up 0.05% month - on - month [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the basis is at a high level, and the position has risen rapidly recently. As of August 7, the number of warehouse receipts was 10,199 lots, up 480 lots month - on - month. As of the week of August 8, the LPG commodity volume was 529,200 tons, up 2,700 tons week - on - week [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the center of gravity is expected to move down. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound. Try to go long with a light position. Pay attention to the range of PG [3750 - 3870] [11]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,297 yuan/ton, and the L9 - 1 spread was - 67 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has weakened, the spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the basis has strengthened. Most devices have restarted recently, and the supply pressure has increased marginally. The social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks. As the delivery month approaches, industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [18]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,075 yuan/ton, and the PP9 - 1 spread was - 31 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost continues to fall, the total commercial inventory continues to accumulate, the export profit margin has turned negative, and the downstream restocking power is weak. The basis for further negative fundamentals is limited, and there is technical support at the bottom [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions gradually when the price is low [25]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,046 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 251 lots [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream operation has increased, and the social inventory has accumulated for 7 consecutive weeks. The calcium carbide price has risen continuously, and the cost support has improved. New production capacity will be released in August, and the supply - demand is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound and then go short. Pay attention to the range of V [4900 - 5200] [32]. 3.6 PX - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton. The PX9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 118 yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas devices have little change. The PXN spread is at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The demand has weakened slightly but is expected to improve. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to low - buying opportunities; at the same time, sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX [6700 - 6790] [37]. 3.7 PTA - **Market Review**: On August 1, the PTA price in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was - 38 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was - 4 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The operation of the devices has decreased slightly. The demand of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand tight - balance in August is expected to ease, and the cost support is expected to weaken [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, pay attention to high - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of TA [4640 - 4710] [41]. 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 75 yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas devices have increased their load slightly, but the arrival and import are still lower than the same period. The demand of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in July and August, and the inventory is low [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, pay attention to high - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4360 - 4410] [45]. 3.9 Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation has continued to decline, the futures price has fallen slightly, the basis in Hubei has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The "anti - involution" policy expectation is repeated, the market risk preference has declined, and the sentiment is cautious. A glass production line has been restarted, the production has increased, the sales have slowed down, and the inventory has increased [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG2509 [1050, 1080] [50]. 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has declined, the futures price has fallen slightly, the negative basis has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts has increased [53]. - **Basic Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down. The supply has increased slightly this week, and the inventory has ended three weeks of destocking. The supply - demand surplus pattern has not improved significantly, and the fundamentals are bearish [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not clearly stated in the text. 3.11 Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda has declined, the futures price has fallen, the center of gravity has moved down, the main - contract basis has narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [58]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong are abundant. The terminal alumina industry's demand for caustic soda is low, and the non - aluminum terminal demand is limited. The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and the demand has not improved substantially [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not clearly stated in the text. 3.12 Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 2 yuan/ton, the port basis was - 8 yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 spread was - 92 yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit was 61 US dollars/ton [61]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, the overseas devices' load has increased, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be high. The demand is expected to weaken, the social inventory has accumulated, and the cost support has stabilized [62]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions at high prices for the 09 contract and sell call options; pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. Take profit on the MA9 - 1 spread gradually when it rebounds. Pay attention to the range of MA [2355 - 2400] [63]. 3.13 Urea - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The operation load of urea devices is expected to increase next week, the domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, the factory inventory has decreased but is still high compared with the same period, and the export is relatively good [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully for the 09 contract and pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [2]. 3.14 Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil has compression space, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, the supply - demand has decreased, the inventory has accumulated, and the fundamental situation is neutral - bearish [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3450 - 3550] [2]. 3.15 Propylene - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in East China and Shandong has increased, the cost support has weakened, the upstream operation rate has decreased marginally, the downstream demand has not kept up, and the factory inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, with obvious surplus pressure [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Policy still has disturbances, with high-level fluctuations. The short - term trend is volatile, and the overall view is cautious, with a tendency towards a bearish outlook [3][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Industry fundamentals are weakening, and prices are likely to face pressure. The investment rating is to be cautiously bearish [7][8][9]. - **Coke**: Policy still has disturbances, with short - term high - level fluctuations. The investment rating is to be cautiously bullish [10][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Policy still has disturbances, with short - term high - level fluctuations. The investment rating is to be cautiously bullish [13][14][15]. - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Market sentiment is volatile, and a cautious bearish approach is recommended [16][17][18]. Core Views Steel Products - **Rebar**: Supply - demand shows that hot metal production decreased slightly month - on - month, but the absolute level remains high. Rebar production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, and inventory increased. Construction steel trading is at a low level, still showing off - season characteristics. Market sentiment has cooled, and the market oscillates between strong expectations and weak reality, with a short - term volatile trend [4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, inventory increased slightly, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. Export profits have declined significantly, and future exports may be affected. Market sentiment has generally cooled, but strong macro - expectations support the downside, with a short - term volatile trend [4][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, hot metal production decreased again, supply - side shipments decreased significantly, and arrivals increased. Port inventories increased, the fundamentals are moderately weak, and the anti - involution trading has ended. Under the dominance of fundamentals, ore prices are under pressure [8]. Coke - Coke spot prices have increased in five rounds. Coke enterprises' profit margins have improved marginally, but the absolute level is still limited, and production enthusiasm is average. Coke supply and demand are generally balanced, with relatively stable production and inventory. Recent news of coal production restrictions has boosted market sentiment again, leading to short - term high - level fluctuations [11]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply - demand, domestic coking coal production decreased significantly month - on - month, and inventory also decreased. Although hot metal production has decreased, the absolute level remains high, and raw material demand is relatively stable. The supply - demand margin has improved. Recent trading around anti - involution policies and news of production restrictions have boosted market expectations again, leading to short - term high - level fluctuations [14]. Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The operating rate has increased in some regions due to profit restoration. A new round of demand has been concentratedly released. The indicative steel mill's inquiry price for manganese silicon tender in August is 6000 yuan/ton (acceptance), a 150 - yuan increase from July, and the procurement volume is 16100 tons, a 1500 - ton increase from the previous round. Current port ore quotes are firm, providing strong short - term support for alloy prices. Market sentiment is volatile [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Fundamentals are weakening. Factory inventories continue to increase significantly, and delivery inventories are at a high level for the same period, with significant near - end warehouse receipt pressure. A new round of steel tenders has been launched, and most steel mills' tender volumes and prices have increased. The indicative steel mill's inquiry price for ferrosilicon tender in August is 5700 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from last month, and the procurement volume is 2835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from the previous round [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Futures Prices**: Rebar 01 is at 3304 with a decline of 5; Rebar 05 is at 3330 with a decline of 7; Rebar 10 is at 3231 with a decline of 3. Hot Rolled Coil 01 is at 3440 with a decline of 15; Hot Rolled Coil 05 is at 3449 with a decline of 11; Hot Rolled Coil 10 is at 3440 with a decline of 11 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Tangshan billet is at 3090 with no change; Rebar in Tangshan is at 3240 with a 10 - yuan decline; Rebar in Shanghai is at 3360 with a 10 - yuan decline. Hot Rolled Coil in Tianjin is at 3400 with a 10 - yuan decline; Hot Rolled Coil in Shanghai is at 3460 with a 10 - yuan decline [2]. - **Basis**: Rebar 01: Shanghai is at 56 with a 5 - yuan decline; Rebar 05: Shanghai is at 30 with a 3 - yuan decline; Rebar 10: Shanghai is at 129 with a 7 - yuan decline. Hot Rolled Coil 01: Shanghai is at 20 with a 5 - yuan increase; Hot Rolled Coil 05: Shanghai is at 11 with a 1 - yuan increase; Hot Rolled Coil 10: Shanghai is at 20 with a 1 - yuan increase [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: RB 10 - 01 is at - 73 with a 2 - point increase; RB 01 - 05 is at - 26 with a 2 - point increase; RB 05 - 10 is at - 4. HC 10 - 01 is at 0 with a 4 - point increase; HC 01 - 05 is at - 9 with a 4 - point decrease; HC 05 - 10 is at 0 [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: Rebar: Shanghai - Tangshan is at 120 with no change; Rebar: Guangzhou - Tangshan is at 160 with a 10 - yuan increase. Hot Rolled Coil - Rebar: Shanghai is at 100 with no change; Hot Rolled Coil - Rebar: Guangzhou is at 70 with no change [2]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: Iron Ore 01 is at 775 with a 3 - point decline; Iron Ore 05 is at 753 with a 2 - point decline; Iron Ore 09 is at 793 with a 2 - point decline [6]. - **Spot Prices**: PB powder is at 773 with a 3 - point decline; Yangdi powder is at 670 with no change; BRBF powder is at 812 [6]. - **Spreads/Ratios**: i01 - 05 is at 22 with a 2 - point increase; i05 - 09 is at - 41 with a 1 - point decrease; i09 - 01 is at 19 with a 2 - point decrease. RB01/i01 is at 4.27 with a 0.18 - point decrease; RB05/i05 is at 4.43 with no change; RB10/i09 is at 4.07 with no change [6]. - **Basis**: PB powder: 01 is at 50 with no change; PB powder: 05 is at 72 with a 1 - point decrease; PB powder: 09 is at 31 with a 2 - point decrease [6]. - **Freight and Index**: Brazil - Qingdao freight is at 24 with a 0.2 - point increase; West Australia - Qingdao freight is at 10 with a 0.5 - point increase. The Platts price index is at 101.2 with a 0.5 - point decrease; the Platts index converted to RMB price is at 844 with a 4 - point decrease [6]. Coke - **Futures Market**: Coke 1 - month contract 01 basis is at 1744.0 - 239 (previous value: 1732.5 - 249), with a 11.5 - 10.0 increase; Coke 5 - month contract is at 1823.5 (previous value: 1814.0), with a 9.5 - point increase; Coke 9 - month contract is at 1667.5 (previous value: 1644.5), with a 23.0 - point increase [10]. - **Spot Quotes**: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke ex - factory price is at 1230 with no change; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke FOB price is at 1470 with no change; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke FOB price is at 1440 (previous value: 1420), with a 20 - point increase [10]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises is at 74.0% (previous value: 73.7%), with a 0.3 - percentage - point increase; 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal production is at 240.3 (previous value: 240.7), with a 0.4 - point decrease; sample coking plants' daily average coke production is at 65.1 (previous value: 64.8), with a 0.3 - point increase [10]. Coking Coal - **Futures Market**: Coking Coal 1 - month contract is at 1229.5 (previous value: 1221.0), with an 8.5 - point increase; 01 basis is at 51 (previous value: 59), with an 8.5 - point decrease; Coking Coal 5 - month contract is at 1265.0 (previous value: 1268.0), with a 3.0 - point decrease; 05 basis is at 15 (previous value: 12), with a 3.0 - point increase; Coking Coal 9 - month contract is at 1087.0 (previous value: 1074.0), with a 13.0 - point increase [13]. - **Spot Quotes**: Lvliang main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1%, G>75) is at 1480 with no change; Gujiao main coking coal (A<11, S<1.5%, G<65) is at 1300 with no change; Mongolian 5 clean coal self - pick - up price at Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is at 1150 with no change; Jingtang Port Australian main coking coal (A<9, S<0.4%, G>87) is at 1540 (previous value: 1520), with a 20 - point increase [13]. - **Weekly Data**: The operating rate of sample coal washing plants is at 61.5% (previous value: 62.3%), with a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease; sample coal washing plants' daily average clean coal production is at 52.1 with no change; sample coking plants' daily average coke production is at 52.0 (previous value: 51.8), with a 0.2 - point increase; 247 steel mills' daily average coke production is at 46.8 (previous value: 47.0), with a 0.2 - point decrease [13]. Ferroalloys - **Futures Prices**: Manganese Silicon 01 is at 6160 with a 34 - point decline; Manganese Silicon 05 is at 6202 with a 26 - point decline; Manganese Silicon 09 is at 6064 with a 32 - point decline. Ferrosilicon 01 is at 6012 with a 56 - point decline; Ferrosilicon 05 is at 6090 with a 44 - point decline; Ferrosilicon 09 is at 2834 with a 74 - point decline [16]. - **Spot Prices**: Silico - manganese 6517: Inner Mongolia is at 5820 with a 30 - point decline; Silico - manganese 6517: Ningxia is at 5800 with no change; Silico - manganese 6517: Guizhou is at 5850 with no change. Ferrosilicon 72: Inner Mongolia is at 5600 with no change; Ferrosilicon 72: Ningxia is at 5600 with no change; Ferrosilicon 72: Qinghai is at 5600 with a 50 - yuan increase [16]. - **Basis**: Manganese Silicon 01: Inner Mongolia is at - 40; Manganese Silicon 05: Inner Mongolia is at - 82 with a 4 - point decrease; Manganese Silicon 09: Inner Mongolia is at 56 with a 2 - point increase. Ferrosilicon 01: Ningxia is at - 62 with a 56 - point increase; Ferrosilicon 05: Ningxia is at - 140 with a 44 - point increase; Ferrosilicon 09: Ningxia is at 116 with a 74 - point increase [16]. - **Spread Analysis**: SM 09 - 01 is at - 96 with a 2 - point increase; SM 01 - 05 is at - 42 with an 8 - point decrease; SM 05 - 09 is at 138 with a 6 - point increase. SF 09 - 01 is at - 178 with an 18 - point decrease; SF 01 - 05 is at - 78 with a 12 - point decrease; SF 05 - 09 is at 256 with a 30 - point increase [16]. - **Weekly Data**: The operating rate of manganese silicon enterprises is at 43.43% (previous value: 42.18%), with a 1.25 - percentage - point increase; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises is at 34.32% (previous value: 33.76%), with a 0.56 - percentage - point increase. The production of 187 manganese silicon enterprises is at 195825 tons (previous value: 190820 tons), with a 5005 - ton increase; the inventory of 63 manganese silicon enterprises is at 161500 tons (previous value: 164000 tons), with a 2500 - ton decrease. The production of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is at 109100 tons (previous value: 104400 tons), with a 4700 - ton increase; the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is at 71770 tons (previous value: 65590 tons), with a 6180 - ton increase [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans and Meals**: - **Soybean Meal**: Big - range oscillation ★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Big - range oscillation ★ [1] - **Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation ★ [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - **Jujube**: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - **Pork**: Cautiously bullish ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Under the intertwined effects of weak fundamentals and the cost support of China - US trade tariffs, it shows a big - range oscillation. This week, there was a reduction in soybean meal inventory, and the环比 decline of the good - quality rate of US soybeans was bullish. However, there is a risk of a环比 increase in the per - unit yield of US soybeans in the August USDA report next week, so the market is cautious about going long. Pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Amid the intertwined long and short factors, it presents a big - range market. The recovery of global rapeseed production year - on - year, but there is a risk of a reduction in the per - unit yield of Canadian rapeseed in the new year. The reduction of rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. However, the improvement of the import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather of Canadian rapeseed and the estimated per - unit yield data this month [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea is to go long on dips. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July, which may suppress short - term prices. Pay attention to the final data around the 10th of this month [1][10]. - **Cotton**: The soil moisture in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the improvement expectation of exports is limited. It is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound. In China, the actual sown area and per - unit yield of new cotton increase simultaneously, pushing up the guaranteed output. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and the replenishment of downstream finished products slows down, providing short - term support. Downstream is gradually entering the stocking market, and the orders of textile enterprises have a slight rebound. It is advisable to be cautiously long on dips in the short term [1][14]. - **Jujube**: There are still differences in the market regarding the reduction range of production. At present, it is still doubtful whether there will be an over - expected reduction in production, and there is still speculation risk. The high - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final production is determined. It is advisable to cautiously try long this week [1][17]. - **Pork**: The previous selling of second - fattened pigs and the acceleration of the short - term slaughter rhythm pushed down the pig price. However, considering the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs, it still drives some second - fattening speculation. The near - month contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises is expected to boost the far - month contracts. It is advisable to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips [1][21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a环比 increase of 15.20 million tons; 125 oil - mill soybean inventories were 655.59 million tons, a环比 increase of 10.00 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a环比 decrease of 0.15 million tons. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal were 8.05 days, a环比 decrease of 0.14 days [3]. - **Market Transactions**: On August 5, the far - month basis trading volume soared, reaching a new high in nearly three years, mainly concentrated in the 10 - 1, 11 - 1, and 11 - 12 contracts [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, the coastal main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 11.6 million tons, a环比 decrease of 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 million tons, a环比 increase of 0.8 million tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 62.88 million tons, a环比 decrease of 3.66 million tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: Although June - August is the peak season for aquaculture, the substitution effect of soybean meal is enhanced, squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal. The reduction of rapeseed imports from August to October and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal support the price, but the improvement of the import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts pressure [7]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 58.22 million tons, a环比 decrease of 3.33 million tons [9]. - **Production Data**: In July 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 9.01% month - on - month to 1.84 billion tons. From August 1 - 5, 2025, the per - unit yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia decreased by 19.32% compared with the same period last month, and the palm oil production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [9]. 3.4 Cotton - **International Situation**: The good - quality rate of US cotton this week remained at 55%, 10% higher than the same period. The non - drought rate in the US cotton - growing areas has gradually decreased to 80%. The newly sown area of cotton in India increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress was 24%, 2% higher than the same period. The new cotton harvest progress in Brazil has reached 16.7% [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: In China, the per - unit yield of new cotton is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to reach 7.4 billion tons or more. The commercial inventory has decreased to 215.71 million tons, 17.43 million tons lower than the same period. The orders of textile enterprises have a slight rebound, and the gold - nine - silver - ten stocking has gradually started [13]. 3.5 Jujube - **Production Expectation**: The new - season jujube is in the critical fruit - setting period. Some institutions estimate that the new - season production will decrease by 5 - 10% compared with 2022 and 20 - 25% compared with 2024, but other institutions give a conclusion of a 35 - 40% reduction, so the production expectation should be treated with caution [16]. - **Inventory Situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9784 tons, a环比 decrease of 255 tons, higher than the same period by 4379 tons, and the depletion speed has significantly accelerated compared with the previous four weeks [16]. 3.6 Pork - **Supply Situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August is 13.2257 billion heads, a环比 increase of 5.26%. The proportion of large - pig slaughter remains high, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening is also high. In the medium term, the number of newly born piglets from January to June 2025 continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume in the second half of the year will still have room for growth [20]. - **Demand Situation**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has a phased weakening [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [1] - Silver: ★★, recommending buying on rebounds [1] - Copper: ★★, advising to try buying on dips [1] - Zinc: ★★, suggesting selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: ★, indicating that rebounds are under pressure [1] - Tin: ★★, showing rebounds are under pressure [1] - Aluminum: ★, suggesting rebounds are under pressure [1] - Nickel: ★★, indicating rebounds are under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, showing it is under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: ★, recommending a cautious bullish view [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, suggesting a bullish view [1] Core Views of the Report - Precious metals like gold and silver are influenced by multiple factors such as US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical events, maintaining high levels. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended, and silver also has an upward long - term trend [1][2] - Copper is affected by copper concentrate disruptions and a weak US dollar, which help it stop falling and rebound. However, the off - season demand and inventory accumulation limit the rebound space. Long - term optimism remains [1][7] - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak situation. Overseas, there are issues like concentrated zinc warehouse receipts, while domestic demand is weak. Long - term, supply increases and demand decreases [1][10] - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to insufficient terminal demand and inventory accumulation [1][14] - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of weak downstream transactions and inventory pressure [1][18] - Lithium carbonate's fundamentals have marginally improved, with total inventory starting to decline after continuous accumulation. There is a supply hype expectation, and it is recommended to try buying on dips [1][22] Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices remain high due to factors such as the expected meeting between Putin and Trump, US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, and continuous central bank gold purchases [2] - **Basic Logic**: US employment is weakening, but inflation expectations are rising. Some countries' stances on tariffs are changing, and central banks are continuing to buy gold. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has clear support around 770 in the short - term. Silver is in a range of 9100 - 9350, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly overnight, first rising and then falling [6] - **Industrial Logic**: There have been continuous disruptions in copper concentrates, and overseas smelters are under maintenance. Domestic copper smelting production has increased, but it is the off - season for demand, and inventories are accumulating [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for copper to fully correct and then try buying on dips. Long - term, be bullish on copper. The range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79500], and for LME copper is [9550, 9750] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc has stood above the 2800 mark, while Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. However, demand is weak due to high temperatures, floods, and the off - season [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For short - term, take profit on previous short positions and wait and see. Long - term, look for opportunities to short on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 22800], and for LME zinc is [2750, 2850] dollars per ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded in the short - term, while alumina rebounded and then declined [12] - **Industrial Logic**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has decreased, and inventories are rising. The demand side is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and inventories are accumulating [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on short - term rebounds of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices' rebounds were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is falling, and domestic nickel supply - demand conditions have improved limitedly. Stainless steel's production cut effect is weakening, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 122000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 increased in position and rose by more than 5% [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has stopped accumulating, and production has decreased. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi is a key point. The supply - demand situation may improve in August [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is still an expectation of supply speculation. Try buying on dips in the range of [715000 - 73600] [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, asphalt [1][2] - **Cautiously Bearish**: LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, caustic soda, methanol, propylene [1][2] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Soda ash, urea [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, putting pressure on oil prices. Pay attention to the key support level of $60 [1]. - **LPG**: Cost drag vs. high basis, with the downside support for liquefied gas strengthening [1]. - **L**: Cost support weakens, and a cautious bearish stance is recommended [14]. - **PP**: Commercial total inventory continues to accumulate, and there is still pressure to destock [24]. - **PVC**: Cost support improves, but the fundamentals are weak, and a rebound is expected to be followed by a bearish trend [30]. - **PX**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors, so a cautious bearish view is held [33]. - **PTA**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors, so a cautious bearish stance is recommended [37]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the macro - sentiment has subsided, and a cautious bearish view is taken [41]. - **Glass**: Spot quotes are lowered, and the futures price continues to correct [45]. - **Soda ash**: Inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and attention should be paid to the suppression of the 10 - day moving average [50]. - **Caustic soda**: The subsidy for liquid chlorine has narrowed, and the futures price center has moved down [54]. - **Methanol**: The expectation of a tight balance between supply and demand has eased, and crude oil is oscillating weakly, so a cautious bearish view is recommended [59]. - **Urea**: The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose, but there may be speculation about urea exports during the period of macro - policy vacuum [2]. - **Asphalt**: There is room for cost - end oil prices to compress, and the raw material supply is sufficient, so a bearish view is taken [2]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices have increased, and the basis has strengthened, but the downstream demand is insufficient, so a cautious bearish stance is recommended [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.24%, Brent down 1.11%, and SC down 0.96% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September. The pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually being released, and the oil price center still has room to decline [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, due to the substitution of new energy and OPEC's expansion of production, supply is gradually becoming excessive. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. In the short - term, the trend is weak below the 20 - day moving average, but the support below is gradually rising. Consider taking profits on short positions and then waiting and watching. SC should be monitored in the range of [490 - 505] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 6, the PG main contract closed at 3,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price has declined, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the August CP contract price. The cost is the main drag on liquefied gas, while the basis is at a high level [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of liquefied gas to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, and the valuation is neutral. In the short - term, the RSI data is in the oversold range, and the downside support is strengthening, so there may be a short - term rebound. Consider taking profits on short positions and then lightly opening long positions. PG should be monitored in the range of [3750 - 3850] [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,321 yuan/ton, and the North China basis was - 121 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has weakened, spot prices have continuously declined, the basis has weakened, and social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks. Recently, most plants have restarted, increasing supply pressure, and downstream restocking demand during the off - season is insufficient [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Commercial total inventory continues to accumulate, domestic demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season, and downstream restocking demand is insufficient. Although there are many short - term upstream maintenance activities, the production capacity release pressure in the third quarter is high [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread long strategy [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,042 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,773 [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The price of calcium carbide has continuously increased, and coking coal has returned to a bullish trend, improving cost support. However, there are few maintenance plans in August, new production capacity is being released, and it is the off - season for both domestic and international demand, with weakened export support. Social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand pattern in August is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In August, the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory. Wait for the rebound and then take a bearish position [31]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: There are few changes in domestic and overseas plants. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but PX inventory is still relatively high. PXN is not low, and the basis has weakened. There is no macro - bullish news recently, and the sentiment in the commodity market has declined [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions and look for short - selling opportunities. At the same time, sell call options. PX should be monitored in the range of [6700 - 6830] [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Some plants have shut down or reduced production, and the start - up rate has declined. The demand side is generally weak, and the start - up rates of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are weakening. The supply - demand tight - balance expectation for PTA in August has eased, and there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors recently [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions and look for short - selling opportunities. At the same time, sell call options. TA should be monitored in the range of [4660 - 4740] [40]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas ethylene glycol plants have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly weakening, and terminal demand is in the traditional off - season. The supply - demand is in a tight balance from July to August, and the inventory is generally low [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions cautiously and sell call options. EG should be monitored in the range of [4390 - 4450] [44]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes have been lowered, the futures price is showing differentiation, the Hubei basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [47]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro level, there is no unexpected incremental policy for real estate in the Politburo meeting, and the official manufacturing PMI in July decreased by 0.4 percentage points month - on - month and is below the boom - bust line. The market risk appetite has declined, and the sentiment in the commodity market has been dampened. As the delivery month approaches, the market focus has shifted from expectations to fundamentals [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG2509 should be monitored in the range of [1050, 1100] [49]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot quotes of heavy soda ash are showing differentiation, the futures price is rising and falling unevenly, the basis has widened, the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged, and the number of valid forecasts has increased [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The hype about macro - policies has cooled down. Recently, soda ash enterprises have been undergoing maintenance and restarts, resulting in a slight reduction in overall production. The weekly supply of soda ash has decreased, and the demand side mostly continues to take delivery based on rigid demand. The inventory of soda ash plants has ended three weeks of destocking and is still at a historically high level [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be patient and wait for the correction to end. Temporarily wait and watch or take a cautious bearish stance [52]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot quotes of liquid caustic soda are stable, the futures price has declined, the basis has widened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [56]. - **Basic Logic**: On the supply side, summer plant maintenance has led to a decline in industry start - up. Some downstream alumina plants have resumed production, and the production of alumina has gradually increased. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remains stable, the price of caustic soda has slightly decreased, the weekly average price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the production profit has increased. The supply and demand of caustic soda are balanced, and the inventory is high compared to the same period [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy is recommended in the text [58]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract of methanol closed at 2,393 yuan/ton [59]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol plants under maintenance have resumed production, and the start - up load of overseas methanol plants remains high, increasing the expected supply pressure. The expected demand has weakened, and the social inventory is accumulating, but it is still relatively low overall. The basis and the 9 - 1 spread have weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions at high prices for the 09 contract and sell call options. Look for low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. Hold the MA9 - 1 reverse spread. MA should be monitored in the range of [2365 - 2410] [2]. Urea - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic supply of urea is expected to increase, and the demand is generally weak. However, there may be speculation about urea exports during the period of macro - policy vacuum. The valuation of urea is not high, and coal prices are capped and supported under the background of the "export quota system" and "peak - summer power consumption" [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities for UR601. At the same time, sell put options. UR should be monitored in the range of [1750 - 1790] [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: There is room for cost - end oil prices to compress, and the raw material supply for asphalt is sufficient. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The current cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is high [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly open short positions. BU should be monitored in the range of [3500 - 3600] [2]. Propylene - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have increased, and the basis has strengthened. However, the cost support for PDH has weakened, the upstream start - up rate has marginally weakened, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the factory inventory has been accumulating for 4 consecutive weeks and is at a high level compared to the same period [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or hold the 1 - 2 calendar spread reverse strategy. PL should be monitored in the range of [6350 - 6550] [2].

| 螺纹钢 | | 供需方面，铁水产量绝对水平仍高，螺纹产量基本持平，需求环比回落，库存有所上升， | | --- | --- | --- | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 基本面体现淡季特征。市场情绪有所降温，后期行情或切换产业逻辑，但后期仍可能出 | | | | 现减产限产等政策提振市场预期，短期或有反弹。【3200，3260】 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需小幅回升，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷出口利润回落 | | | 谨慎看多 | 明显，后期出口或受一定影响。市场情绪总体降温，中期价格中枢或有下移，但短期在 | | ★ | | 限产等消息支撑下或有反弹。【3430，3480】 | | 铁矿石 | | 基本面看，铁水产量再降，供给端发货明显减量，到货恢复性增加。港口去库，钢厂库 | | ★ | 短多参与 | 存增加。基本面中性偏强，反内卷交易告一段落，基本面主导下，矿价坚挺。【770,810】 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货已有五轮提涨，焦企利润边际有所改善，绝对水平仍然有限，生产积极性一般。 | | ★★ | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭供需总体相对平衡，产量及库存偏稳运行，变化不大。近期煤炭限产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Cotton, Red dates, Live pigs (Cautious bullish) [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal (Large - range oscillation); Palm oil (Short - term consolidation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean meal**: In a large - range oscillation due to the intertwined influence of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. This week's inventory reduction and the decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans are bullish factors, but there is a risk of an increase in the US soybean yield per unit in the August USDA report next week, making the market cautious about going long [1]. - **Rapeseed meal**: In a large - range oscillation. The global rapeseed production is recovering year - on - year, but there is a risk of a reduction in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed. The decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal consumption and the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit are bearish factors [1]. - **Palm oil**: Short - term consolidation. The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, but the possible inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices. It is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions and look for opportunities to go long after price stabilization [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. The moisture conditions in the main US cotton - producing areas continue to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. In China, the increase in the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton boosts the guaranteed output. The rapid commercial de - stocking and the slowdown in downstream finished - product restocking provide short - term support. The downstream is gradually entering the stocking market, and the decline space before the new cotton is listed is expected to be limited [1]. - **Red dates**: Cautiously bullish. There are still significant differences in the market regarding the extent of the production reduction, and there is still a risk of over - hyped production reduction. It is advisable to be cautious about going long this week and pay attention to the previous high pressure level [1]. - **Live pigs**: Cautiously bullish. The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of the short - term slaughter rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs, but the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still promotes some second - fattening speculation. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains high, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises is expected to boost the far - month contracts. It presents a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation" [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main soybean meal contract was 3026 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3006.29 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decrease from the previous day [2]. - **Market situation**: The de - stocking this week and the decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans are bullish, but there is a risk of an increase in the US soybean yield per unit in the August USDA report next week [1]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 11.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 million tons; the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 62.88 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.66 million tons [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract was 2745 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2753.16 yuan/ton, a 1.75% increase from the previous day [5]. - **Market situation**: The decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal consumption and the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit are bearish factors [1]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.33 million tons [9]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract was 8970 yuan/ton, a 1.04% decrease from the previous day; the national average price was 9040 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the previous day [8]. - **Market situation**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, but the possible inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices [1]. 3.4 Cotton - **Inventory**: The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 215.71 million tons, 17.43 million tons lower than the same period [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 was 13690 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease; the domestic spot price increased by 0.06% to 15196 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market situation**: The US cotton good - quality rate is stable and higher than the same period, but the non - drought rate in the US cotton area is decreasing. In China, the new cotton production is expected to increase, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is gradually improving [12][13]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10039 tons this week, a week - on - week decrease of 51 tons, higher than the same period [16]. - **Price**: The main red date contract CJ2601 increased by 1.71% to 10980 yuan/ton [16]. - **Market situation**: There are differences in the market regarding the production reduction amplitude, and the high - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height [17]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Inventory and出栏**: The national sample enterprise live pig inventory in June was 3763.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%; the出栏 volume was 1091.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18]. - **Price**: The main live pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.68% to 14010 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - **Market situation**: The short - term出栏 increase and the second - fattening speculation co - exist. The medium - and long - term production capacity is high, and leading enterprises are gradually reducing production capacity [19][20].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美联储表态鸽派，关税谈判接近尾声，短期盘面调整。中长期来看，多国货币政策 | | | 回调做多 | 宽松预期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低，长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | ★★ | | 【770-794】 | | 白银 | | 美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺激等支撑作用明显，白银基本面变化不大， | | | 反弹做多 | 工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银长期向上趋势不变。不过短期白银品种弹性 | | ★★ | | 较大，短期试多长期做多。【9000-9300】 | | | | 海内外宏观政策进入窗口期，铜精矿干扰和美元疲软帮助铜止跌反弹，但是需求淡 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 季叠加海内外库存累库限制铜反弹空间，短期建议等待铜充分回调后再试多，中长 | | ★★ | | 期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【77500，79500】 | | 锌 | 海外 | LME 锌库存连续去化超预期，国内需求疲软继续累库。锌外强内弱，沪锌跟随 | | | 反弹沽空 | 伦锌止跌反弹，建议锌前期空单止盈兑现后 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most varieties are rated as 'Cautiously Bearish', some as 'Bearish' [1][2] Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost changes, and macro - policy impacts lead to downward price pressure [1][2] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Partially take profit on short positions due to supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical risks [1][3] - **Key Points**: OPEC's planned September production increase of 548,000 barrels per day, combined with the mid - to - late peak season, causes downward pressure on oil prices. The key support level is around $60 per barrel [5][7] LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions [1][8] - **Key Points**: Cost - end oil price decline and Saudi's CP contract price reduction drag down LPG. Although the fundamentals are okay, there is short - term downward pressure [10][11] L (PE) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions [1][13] - **Key Points**: Spot prices fall, inventory accumulates, and supply pressure increases. New capacity is expected to be put into production in August [16] PP - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions or conduct 9 - 1 calendar spreads [1][19] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is weak, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream. Third - quarter production capacity pressure is high [23] PVC - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1][26] - **Key Points**: Rising raw material costs, postponed maintenance, and new capacity release lead to inventory accumulation in August [29] PX - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions and sell put options [1][32] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with high inventory. PXN is not low, and there is a lack of macro - level positive factors [34] PTA - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions and sell put options [1][36] - **Key Points**: Supply pressure may increase with new device production, while demand is weak. The processing fee is low [38] MEG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions, sell put options, and look for low - buying opportunities [1][40] - **Key Points**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with low inventory. Market sentiment has cooled [42] Glass - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, wait for the correction to end [2][44] - **Key Points**: Production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and inventory transfer rather than terminal consumption leads to inventory reduction [47] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, wait for the correction to end [2][49] - **Key Points**: Macro - policy hype has cooled, supply has decreased slightly, but inventory remains high, and the supply - demand surplus persists [52] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Bearish, the price range has declined [2][54] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is balanced, inventory is high year - on - year, and there is no obvious fundamental driver. The downstream alumina market has corrected [57] Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on 09 short positions, sell call options, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 [2][59] - **Key Points**: Supply pressure increases with the resumption of domestic and overseas devices. Demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is accumulating [60] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities [2] - **Key Points**: Production capacity is expected to increase, domestic demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating, but exports are relatively good [2] Propylene - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions or conduct 1 - 2 calendar spreads [2] - **Key Points**: Spot prices are weak, cost support is weakening, and inventory is accumulating [2]