1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. Brazil is in the early stage of soybean harvest, with expected record - high production. US soybeans fell due to export decline expectations, and domestic soybean meal continued to decline with inventory accumulation. However, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis strengthened. Be cautious about further shorting, and pay attention to February rainfall in Argentine soybean regions [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment. The entry of the first batch of Australian rapeseeds into crushing and stable Sino - Canadian trade reduced market bullish sentiment. Coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory broke the previous zero state, and the decline in soybean meal further expanded the decline of rapeseed meal. It shows a second - dip trend in the short term. Focus on subsequent rapeseed procurement and US - Canada trade progress [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term adjustment. Indonesia's plan to ban the export of used cooking oil and palm waste supported palm oil prices, but the January Malaysian palm oil export data was average, with a risk of inventory accumulation in January. Be cautious about going long, and pay attention to January Malaysian palm oil inventory estimates and the US - Iran situation [1][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term adjustment. Brazil's soybean harvest is in the early stage, with expected production increase, which is bearish for the market. Coupled with the weakening of crude oil, soybean oil continued to decline slightly. Pay attention to the Malaysian palm oil situation and Argentine weather [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term adjustment. The crushing of Australian rapeseeds in China alleviated the tight supply in South China, but downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the basis has weakened. The Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy is unclear. Rapeseed oil futures prices rebounded slightly following palm oil. Focus on rapeseed imports and US - Canada trade progress [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillatory adjustment. The US cotton market declined due to external commodities and a stronger US dollar. It has been in low - level consolidation since 2025, and the new - cotton narrative in 2026 is expected to start after the first quarter. In China, new - cotton processing is basically completed, and raw - material inventory is being depleted at a moderate pace. The import side faces price - difference pressure, and domestic demand is in a weakening stage. In the short term, the upward drive is weak, but there is a strong expectation in the medium - long term. Continuously monitor the linkage between domestic and foreign cotton and the inventory depletion situation in the first half of the year [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Under pressure. Spot performance is flat. With the peak of new - product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, futures price fluctuations increase. High inventory depletion is accelerating, which may drive a short - term rebound. However, in a supply - demand loose pattern, the overall trend is expected to be bearish with occasional rebounds. Pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities during the cold - season peak [1][16]. - **Hogs**: Oscillatory and weakening. In the context of high supply and demand in February, there may be short - term price rebounds in some regions, but they lack a sustainable basis. Near - month contracts are prone to decline due to weak supply - demand and delivery logic, so pay attention to low - level risk control. Far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trend due to poor capacity reduction. Focus on short - term long - allocation and rebound opportunities [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 0.84% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3168.57 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis strengthened. The export decline expectation led to a fall in US soybeans, and domestic inventory accumulation pressured the market [2][4]. - **Brazilian Situation**: As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, 5 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than last year's 9%. Multiple institutions predict record - high Brazilian soybean production in 2025/26 [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2249 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2562.63 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. Coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the market sentiment was bearish [5][7]. - **Supply Situation**: China has completed the customs clearance of at least one ship of Australian rapeseeds and is expected to start crushing this week. Chinese crushers have also ordered Canadian rapeseeds and rapeseed meal for shipment in the coming months [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9094 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average price was 9100 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased, and the import cost increased. The inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of bullish views increased [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Indonesia's export ban plan supported prices, but the January Malaysian palm oil export data was average, with a risk of inventory accumulation. India's palm oil imports reached a four - month high in January [9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Domestic cotton futures prices generally rose slightly, and US cotton prices declined slightly. The spot price decreased slightly, and the basis of some contracts weakened. The textile enterprise's profit decreased, and the demand of spinning and weaving enterprises declined [10]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Internationally, Brazil and Turkey are expected to reduce cotton production in 2026. In China, new - cotton processing is basically completed, inventory is being depleted, and import volume increased in December. However, domestic demand is in a weakening stage [11][12][13]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: Futures prices rose slightly, and most spot prices remained stable. The basis of some contracts weakened, and the arrival volume in the Guangdong market decreased. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of the spot market is stable, and the inventory depletion has accelerated. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, the futures price fluctuations increase [15][16]. Hogs - **Market Situation**: Futures prices generally declined, and the national average slaughter price decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased. The slaughter profit improved, and the frozen - product storage rate decreased [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In January, the breeding side slightly exceeded the plan, and the supply in the south is relatively sufficient. In February, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased, but the daily - average pressure increased. The demand increased during the pre - holiday period, and the overall profit remained above 0 yuan/head [18].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比略降，产量在利润支撑下回升，库存继续累积。铁水产量变化不大，钢厂 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 利润总体一般，原料价格偏高抑制钢厂补库积极性。钢材供需层面矛盾有限，宏观情绪 阶段性偏强，中期维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有下降，绝对水平偏高。在产量较低，需求稳健的状 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 态下，冬储累库压力或不大。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对 行情形成压制，短期宏观氛围偏暖，中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 钢厂库存水平明显上升，补库还将持续，但幅度缩小，铁水环比小幅回落，铁矿基本面 | | ★ | 暂且观望 | 中性，价格窄幅运行。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，市场对第二轮提涨存在分歧。近期焦企亏损程度略有减轻，受生产 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 惯性短期焦企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略降。从需求来看，铁水产量变化不大，下 游维持按需采购。预计短期维持区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 国内煤矿供应量环比下 ...

金银：国内情绪性跌势远大于外部 中辉有色观点 | I | 1000 - 1000 6 1 | | | 15 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11 | No | 1 | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 市场关注交易情绪层面，早已超买和超高的 VIX 指数情绪被浇灭，金银飞流直下三 | | | 等待降波 | 千尺。基本面短期对盘面影响不大，中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央 | | ★ | | 行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。本周关注调整幅度 | | | | 此前提示白银交易太过于拥挤，这一天回来，近日调整甚是惨烈。尽管长期理由仍 | | 白银 | 等待企稳 | 然存在供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利），但是短期市场会沉浸 | | ★★ | | 在悲观情绪中，保持关注。 | | | | 美国制造业 PMI 超预期，提振市场风险偏好，但随着长假临近，中下游需求疲软叠 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 加投机多头获利了结意愿强烈，短期建议降低仓位控 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西正进入大豆收割初期阶段，预计产量将创历史新高。交易商预计，在近期美豆 | | 豆粕 | | 大量购买后，未来几个月巴西供应将受青睐。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所上周四表 | | ★ | 短线遇阻回落 | 示，阿根廷西部主要农业区近期降雨改善了土壤墒情，也进一步对美豆施压。国内 | | | | 豆粕昨日跟随美豆收跌。但现货基差方面维持平稳，或限制豆粕跌幅。后市关注阿 | | | | 根廷大豆地区 2 月降雨情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽库存处低位，进口菜粕库存持续下降，市场可售货源偏紧，菜粕价格 | | 菜粕 | 反弹高位回落 | 偏坚挺，基差走强。但首批澳籽进入压榨，且中加贸易暂无新变速，市场看多情绪 | | ★ | | 回落。叠加豆粕端下跌，昨日菜粕收跌。关注后续加籽采购进展情况，关注美加贸 | | | | 易进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 有迹象表明美国和伊朗愿意举行会谈，原油大跌，叠加马棕榈油 1 月已公布的出口 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 数据表现一般，马棕榈油收跌。昨日棕榈油跟随大幅收跌。关注 1 ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘缓和，油价回落，短期仍有较强不确定性。地缘：中东地缘拉扯， | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 美伊谈判仍有较大不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动： | | ★ | | 供给过剩格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量： | | | | 美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘缓和，成本端油价大幅回落，液化气跟随油价回落。成本端油价 | | LPG | | 短期受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利好；供需 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工 | | | | 需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 两油石化库存重新累库，寒潮影响阶段性回落，盘面回吐地缘和天气溢价， | | ★ | 空头盘整 | 短期产业可关注逢高套保机会。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增 | | | | 加，基差跌至同期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 短期新上任的美联储主席立场超预期，叠加上伊朗问题缓和，早已超买和超高的 VIX | | | 等待降波 | 指数情绪被浇灭，金银飞流直下三千尺。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在， | | ★ | | 央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。本周关注调整幅度 | | 白银 | | 此前提示白银交易太过于拥挤，这一天回来，近日调整还是惨烈。尽管长期理由仍 | | ★★ | 等待企稳 | 然存在供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利），但是短期市场会沉浸 在悲观情绪中，保持关注。 | | | | 特朗普提名沃什继任美联储主席，市场担心其缩表+降息主张，明鸽实鹰，市场流动 | | 铜 | | 性预期收缩，贵金属创纪录暴跌带崩有色，叠加长假临近，铜承压回落，建议铜多 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 单移动止盈落袋，不要盲目追涨杀跌，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | | 美联储新主席提名人沃什或明鸽实鹰，宏观和板块情绪骤冷，贵金属暴跌带崩有色， | | | 反弹承压 ...

【品种观点】 螺纹钢：螺纹需求环比略降，产量在利润支撑下回升，库存继续累积。铁水产量变化不大， 钢厂利润总体一般，原料价格偏高抑制钢厂补库积极性。热卷：热卷产量及表需相对平稳， 库存略有下降，绝对水平偏高。在产量较低，需求稳健的状态下，冬储累库压力或不大。现 货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 ★ | 谨慎看多 | 螺纹需求环比略降，产量在利润支撑下回升，库存继续累积。铁水产量变化不大，钢 厂利润总体一般，原料价格偏高抑制钢厂补库积极性。钢材供需层面矛盾有限，宏观 | | | | 情绪阶段性偏强， 中期维持区间运行。 | | | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有下降，绝对水平偏高。在产量较低，需求稳健的 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 状态下，冬储累库压力或不大。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基 | | ★ | | 差对行情形成压制，短期宏观氛围偏暖， 中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 钢厂库存水平明显上升，补库还将持续，但幅度缩小，铁水环比小幅回落，铁矿基本 | | ★ | | ...

【品种观点】 阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所周四表示，阿根廷西部关键农业产区近期的降雨令土壤墒情得 到改善，但大豆和玉米作物未来几周仍需更多降水方能避免单产下降。该交易所估计，阿根廷 2025/26 年度大豆收割面积为 1760 万公顷，低于前一年度的 1840 万公顷，但预计玉米收割面积在 780 万公顷， 高于前一年度的 710 万公顷。 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入阶段性 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 去库。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气以及上周达沃斯中美会晤后，美政府对美豆出口 | | 豆粕 | | 中国展望乐观，叠加美生柴政策预期，支撑美豆基本面暂偏多。但巴西丰产收割上 | | | 短线遇阻回落 | 市，交易商普遍预计，近期集中采购美豆之后，未来几个月中国买家将主要转向巴 | | ★ | | 西市场寻求供应。这一结构性转变将持续对美豆出口前景及价格形成制约。美豆小 | | | | 幅收跌，叠加国内节前市场备货情绪表现一般，周五国内豆粕自反弹高位大幅回落。 | | | | 考虑阿根廷降雨依然不足，豆粕短 ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘不确定性较高，油价短期震荡偏强。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，美伊 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 谈判仍有较大不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供 | | ★ | | 给过剩格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美 | | | | 国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘提振油价叠加沙特上调 CP 合同价，成本端拉动液化气反弹。成 | | LPG | | 本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 好；供需方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下 | | | | 游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 两油石化库存降至同期低位，上中游显性库存暂无突出矛盾，涨势延续， | | ★ | 震荡偏强 | 关注地缘变动。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增加，基差跌至同 | | | | 期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | | 节前仍 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 节奏上情绪推至极值，注意高位波动风险。基本面美政府关门风险陡增、联储主席 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 候选人未知，伊朗局势紧张，地缘问题反复，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期地缘秩 | | ★★ | | 序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银短期波动率较大，分析来看白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，全年来 | | | 长期持有 | 看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均 | | ★★ | | 对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | 铜 | | 美国极限施压伊朗，美联储新主席独立性担忧，市场投机狂热，短期多空双杀，铜 | | | 长线持有 | 隔夜创历史新高后巨幅调整，建议铜多单移动止盈落袋，不要盲目追涨杀跌，中长 | | ★ | | 期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪亢奋，投机狂热，隔夜锌录 2022 年以来得新高，建议前期多单持有， | | 锌 | 反弹 | 逐渐逢高止盈。企业卖出套保积 ...