1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton [1] - **Bearish Dominance**: Red dates, live pigs [1] - **Range - bound**: Rapeseed oil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillations. Although the current supply is sufficient, the expected decrease in weekly crushing volume may relieve supply pressure. Wait for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) December report and follow the progress of South American soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillations. The spot market is inactive, but due to weather premium speculation on the soybean meal side and low rapeseed import expectations, the far - month contracts are expected to be bullish. Pay attention to the USDA December report and China - Canada trade progress [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to stop falling in stages. Although there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November in Malaysia, factors such as floods in Southeast Asia and increased Indian purchases have boosted market sentiment. Be cautious when chasing long at high levels and look for opportunities to go long on dips after adjustments [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish oscillations. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased but is still higher than the five - year average. Follow the South American soybean weather and treat it as a range - bound market this week [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Range - bound. The fundamentals are strong, but the spot trading is sluggish. It is advisable to focus on far - month contracts when going long. Pay attention to the import situation of Australian and Russian rapeseed and rapeseed oil [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. Globally, the market is more focused on weather. Domestically, new cotton sales are progressing quickly, and the cost support is strengthening. However, there are still pressures from high inventory and hedging. Consider going long on dips and look for medium - to - long - term recovery opportunities [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Bearish oscillations. With the peak of new product listings and the arrival of the consumption season, the market is bearish overall. However, since most of the price premiums from speculation on production cuts have been squeezed out, avoid excessive short - selling and maintain short - term observation [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Bearish oscillations. In December, the supply pressure is high, and it is difficult to support the spot price. For the near - month 01 contract, focus on short - selling opportunities. The 03 contract is also bearish, and the short - term long - buying opportunities for 09 and 11 contracts can be considered after the supply pressure is released [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.10 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons, a 2.65% increase from last week; and the soybean meal inventory was 120.32 million tons, a 4.49% increase from last week [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3111.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05% [2]. - **Spread**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons, both unchanged from last week [6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2474.74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% [4]. - **Spread**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8770 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20% from the previous day; the national average price was 8798 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% [7]. - **Export**: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased compared with the previous month [8]. Cotton - **Global Situation**: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion, but precipitation in late November was unfavorable for the harvest. In India, new cotton arrivals are stable, but rainfall in late November affected MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the 2026 new cotton planting has started in non - main producing areas [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is basically completed, and the inspection volume exceeds 474 million tons. The sales progress is fast, and the cost of new - season lint is locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. The national commercial inventory has increased to 446 million tons [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15022 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% [9]. Red Dates - **Supply**: The acquisition in some areas is completed, and the acquisition progress in other areas is about 80%. The acquisition price is showing a weak trend [14]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 13910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3062 tons, but lower than the same period last year [14]. - **Price**: The futures prices of contracts such as CJ2601 and CJ2603 have increased to varying degrees, while most spot prices remain stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises has increased by 3.2%. The overall supply pressure is high, but the long - term supply may decrease as the number of fertile sows has decreased [16][17]. - **Demand**: The demand has marginally improved, with an increase in pork sales, but the slaughter profit has decreased [15][17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (Ih2601) remained unchanged at 11385 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of live pigs was 11540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [15].

中辉期货双焦周报 供需双减，短期承压 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/12/05 双焦观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色商品以移仓换月为主，煤焦价格低位反弹后继续走弱，螺矿表现相对坚挺。从供需 层面来看，国内煤炭产量环比再降，部分煤矿因年度生产任务即将完成开始自行减产。下游方面，铁水产量环 比再降，与近两年同期水平相当。12月钢厂检修较多，后续铁水仍有一定下降空间。 【后市展望】：焦煤当前处于供需双减阶段，12月煤矿除受安检等外部因素影响外，仍存在自主减产的驱动， 预计短期供应继续维持偏低水平，而需求仍要关注后续铁水的降幅。本周焦煤主力合约切换至2605合约，考 虑到当前价格再次运行至区间下沿，同时国内重要会议即将来临，因此短期不宜过分沽空。策略上前期高价空 单可继续持有，新单维持观望姿态。 【风险与关注】：宏观情绪、国内煤矿安全检查、能源保供、焦炭提降、铁水产量下行等。 2 • 近期口岸通关量持续回升，截至12月4日，三大口岸精煤库存合计389.7万吨，周环比增加0.4万吨。目前蒙 5原煤 ...

Market Overview - This week, the black sector entered the contract roll - over period. The main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and coking coal were switched to the May contracts. The market showed mixed trends. The main contract of rebar rose 1.3% this week, hot - rolled coil rose 1%, iron ore fell 1%, coke rose 0.7%, and coking coal fell 1% [2]. - In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil both decreased, but their inventory performances were significantly different. Rebar destocking was normal, while hot - rolled coil destocking remained difficult and faced certain pressure. Pig iron output continued to decline. In December, many steel mills carried out maintenance and shutdowns, which had a greater impact on construction steel. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, and the driving force for basis repair was limited. Next week, the economic work conference will be held, and the content of the conference should be noted [2]. Steel Production Monthly Data (October 2025) | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel Products | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] Weekly Data (December 5, 2025) | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 189310 | - 16770 | - 3% | 216980 | - 10960 | - 6% | 503800 | - 27670 | 13.84% | | Wire Rod | 80010 | - 2160 | - 7% | 83000 | - 7610 | - 8% | 101630 | - 2810 | 15% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 314310 | - 4700 | 1% | 314860 | - 5360 | 1% | 400350 | - 550 | 31% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 85520 | 760 | 1.73% | 87480 | 1380 | 0.96% | 167680 | - 1960 | 18.69% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 159820 | - 3890 | 4.53% | 162030 | - 1280 | 4.39% | 192120 | - 2230 | 5.41% | | Total | 828950 | - 26760 | - 0.13% | 864000 | - 24000 | - 1.15% | 1366000 | - 35220 | 17.71% | [5] Steel Production Profit (December 4, 2025) | Region | Rebar - Blast Furnace Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Valley Electricity Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Flat Electricity Change | Hot - Rolled Coil - Blast Furnace Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 112, 5 | 20, 0 | - 101, 0 | 114, 10 | | North China | 74, - 5 | 33, 0 | - 51, 0 | 19, 5 | | Central China | 175, 0 | 186, 5 | 55, 5 | 65, - 10 | [20] Steel Demand Building Materials Consumption - The cumulative year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 8%, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 17% [27]. - The marginal improvement of cement outbound volume was observed. Currently, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 25%. The concrete shipment volume increased month - on - month, and the absolute level was comparable to the same period last year. Currently, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 8% [30]. Coil Consumption - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year. After October, the domestic - foreign price difference declined again [36]. Steel Inventory Rebar Inventory - The rebar basis remained stable this week with limited fluctuations. After November, the basis usually weakens. In the past, the basis convergence stage was usually characterized by the upward oscillation of the futures market. Currently, the rebar output was lower than the same period last year. It was expected that the inventory would enter the normal destocking stage later, the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and the basis was expected to remain stable [50]. Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable but showed a weakening trend. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory remained stable, and the inventory in East China decreased slightly. The recent difficult destocking of hot - rolled coil exerted certain pressure on the spot market, leading to the weakening of the basis [54]. Spread Analysis - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar slightly declined from near the flat - water level this week. The recent decline in rebar inventory and the decrease in the year - on - year inventory growth rate were beneficial for the spread to go positive. After the main contract roll - over of rebar was completed, the inventory in East China was still high, and the 1 - 5 spread might have some room to weaken [60]. - The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil slightly weakened and re - entered the contango structure. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the spread [64]. Strategy Suggestion - Currently, steel lacks obvious market - driving factors. After entering the off - season of demand, macro - events and expectations are usually important sources of market logic. However, the current policy environment is rather calm and difficult to boost the market. From the fundamental perspective, apart from the production cuts and restrictions of steel mills in December, there is also a lack of upward - driving factors. The high inventory of hot - rolled coil creates a downward - driving force, but the overall demand for coils is not bad. Therefore, the current contradictions are limited, and the market lacks themes for directional trading, and may continue to fluctuate within a range. This week, steel prices rose to near the previous high, and the room for further upward movement may be rather limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of decline [2].

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 淡季供给过剩主导市场走势，油价上方承压。地缘：俄乌地缘仍有扰动， | | 原油 | | 乌克兰袭击 CPC 管道，短期提振油价；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费 | | | 谨慎看空 | 淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国 | | ★ | | 原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国 | | | | 页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本支撑下降，需求下降，液化气承压回落。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下，沙特上调 12 月份 CP 合同价，但盘面已计价； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | | | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。策 | | | | 略：空单继续持有。 | | L | | 社会库存反季节性累库，现货跟涨不足，盘面维持升水结构。 ...

中辉有色观点 美联储降息预期反复，俄乌和平进程有内容，黄金高位波动，等待下周美联储会议。 基本逻辑 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国数据西游参半，降息预期反复，另外俄乌停战谈判有新进展，黄金高位调整， | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 市场等待下周的美联储议息会议。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在， | | ★ | | 央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期白银交易交割逼仓以及低库存，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货高升 | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 水、白银期货波动率飙升，短期不宜追高。长线供给有缺口，全球经济刺激、流动 | | | | 性维持宽松，做多逻辑不变 | | | | 美国 ADP 就业数据大幅不及预期，LME 铜注销仓单骤增，海外挤仓担忧加剧，国内 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 淡季去库，非美铜库存或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜创历史新高后多头积极止盈，中长 | | ★ | | 期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观情绪缓和，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱，国内 | | | ...

资料来源：iFinD，mysteel，中辉期货 【品种观点】 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 螺纹产量及表需环比环比下降，库存正常去化。杭州地区库存绝对水平虽仍较高，但已 降幅已正常。螺纹自身基本面相对平衡。铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多，对 | | ★ | | 建筑钢材影响较大。钢材整体缺少强驱动，或维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需均小幅下降，库存变化不大，维持近年来同期最高水平，去库不畅。现 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动，热卷表现或继续弱于螺纹。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续钢厂检修陆续增加，铁水有继续减量预期，关注其落地 | | ★ | 空单持有 | 情况。钢厂增库，港口增库。外矿发货增加，减产主导下，矿价承压。 | | | | 原料煤价格下跌后焦企利润明显改善，生产积极性增加，整体库存压力尚可，后续提降 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 预期进一步增强。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多。自身供需结 | | ★ | | 构偏 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国数据意外走低，降息预期增加，另外俄乌停战谈判有新进展，黄金高位调整。 | | 黄金 ★ | 长线持有 | 黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价 | | | | 值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期白银交易交割逼仓以及低库存，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货高升 | | | 不宜追高 | 水、白银期货波动率飙升，短期不宜追高。长线供给有缺口，全球经济刺激、流动 | | ★★ | | 性维持宽松，做多逻辑不变 | | 铜 | | 美国 ADP 就业数据大幅不及预期，LME 铜库存注销仓单骤增，海外挤仓担忧加剧， | | | 长线持有 | 国内淡季去库，非美铜库存或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜再创历史新高，建议多单移动 | | ★ | | 逢高止盈，中长期，铜依旧看多。 | | | | 宏观情绪缓和，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱，国内 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 淡季去库，锌上方空间或有限，建议多单止盈落袋。中长期看，锌供增需减，维持 | | ★ | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比小幅下降，变化不大；库存环比下降，杭州地区库存绝对水平仍然 | | ★ | 区间运行 | 较高，基本面平衡偏弱。铁水产量环比再降，与去年同期相近，钢厂主动减限产意愿较 | | | | 低。短期维持缺少强驱动，或区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表需略降，库存变化不大，为近年来同期最高。铁水产量小降，钢 | | ★ | | 厂减产意愿不强。短期或维持区间反复。 | | | | 数据来看，铁水环比小幅再降。后续钢厂检修陆续增加，铁水有继续减量预期，关注其 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 落地情况。钢厂去库，港口增库。外矿发货增加，到货缩量，静态基本面环比转弱。 | | ★ | | | | | | 四轮提涨落地后焦企利润明显改善，多数维持正常生产，库存有所累积，钢厂发起首轮 | | 焦炭 ★ | 谨慎看空 | 提降，幅度为 50-55 元/吨。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，但整体维持一定韧性， 多数钢厂存在检修计划。盘面提降预期已逐步兑现，短期跟随焦煤区间运行。 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但近日美国市场对于美豆出口乐观前景出现质疑，疲软的出口装 | | 豆粕 | | 船同比数据，导致美豆高位陷入整理。本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比增加，短期供 | | | 短线偏多震荡 | 应充足，但本周压榨量预计环比小幅下降，或减轻豆粕周度供应压力。美农 12 月 | | ★ | | 报告公布前夕，豆粕暂维持偏多震荡格局，但追多操作需谨慎，投机参与为主。关 | | | | 注报告内容及南美大豆种植天气后续进展。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。远期供需层面偏强，但近端港口库存同比偏 | | | 短线偏多震荡 | 高存在压力，主力合约看多追多谨慎。受豆粕端天气升水炒作及低进口预期，远月 | | ★ | | 菜粕暂维持震荡偏多行情对待。关注美农 12 月报告及中加贸易后续进展。 | | | 11 | 月马棕榈油前 30 日出口数据维持弱势，产量环比增加较少，好于市场预期。欧 | | 棕榈油 | | ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | OPEC+维持产量政策不变，淡季供给过剩仍主导市场走势。地缘：俄乌地 缘仍有扰动，乌克兰袭击 CPC 管道，短期提振油价；核心驱动：淡季供 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | ★ | | 油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关 | | | | 注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续 | | | | 持有。 | | | | 成本支撑下降，需求下降，液化气承压回落。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下，沙特上调 12 月份 CP 合同价，但盘面已计价； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右，下游化工需求存在韧性； | | | | 库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 现货跟涨不足，盘面维持升水结构。国内开工季节性回升，月内到港资源 | ...