Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, black - series commodities showed small fluctuations, with prices generally maintaining a range - bound operation. After the holiday, coal mines resumed production, increasing supply. Spot trading improved, and downstream coking enterprises were more active in restocking, leading to a reduction in mine inventories. [4] - The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke is relatively limited. The performance of downstream finished steel basically conforms to the off - season characteristics, suppressing the raw material end. This week, the main contracts reduced positions by about 22,000 lots, and market divergence decreased. Short - term prices may maintain a range - bound operation. As the current price is close to the lower end of the range and there is still some restocking demand before the Spring Festival, attention can be paid to periodic low - price opportunities. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - **Supply Side**: After the holiday, coal mines resumed production, and the supply of coking coal increased. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 197.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.92 million tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 76.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.42 million tons. The daily average output of sample coal washing plants was 27.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.23 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 36.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.37%. [20][23] - **Demand Side**: Downstream coking enterprises' restocking enthusiasm increased, and the online auction success rate remained high. However, steel mills' restocking enthusiasm was not high, mainly consuming previous inventories. [4] - **Import**: After the holiday, the port clearance volume returned to the previous high level. However, the available resources of Mongolian 5 coking coal were scarce, and the quotation generally rose. The transaction price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has risen to about 1,080 yuan/ton, and the cost of Mongolian coal and Shanxi mainstream warehouse receipts is between 1,100 - 1,250 yuan/ton. [7] - **Price**: The price of raw coal rose, deepening the losses of coking enterprises. Some coking enterprises initiated the first price increase, and there may be a second price increase expected. [7] 3.2 Market Data - **Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost**: Different varieties of coking coal have different warehouse receipt costs in different regions. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan is 1,078 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 1,229 yuan/ton. [11] - **Coking Coal Basis**: The basis of different contracts has different week - on - week changes and basis rates. For example, the basis of the January contract is 221, with a week - on - week increase of 114 and a basis rate of 17.90%. [13] - **Coking Coal Month - to - Month Spread**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Black Commodity Price Ratio**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coking Coal Auction Data**: This week, the coking coal listing volume was 146.94 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54.26 million tons, the transaction rate was 85.85%, a week - on - week increase of 16.76%, and the non - transaction rate was 14.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 16.76%. [30] - **Coking Coal Total Inventory**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coking Coal Inventory Distribution**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit in different regions decreased week - on - week. For example, the national coking profit was - 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [39] - **Coke Basis**: The basis of different contracts has different week - on - week changes and basis rates. For example, the basis of the January contract is 178, with a week - on - week increase of 52 and a basis rate of 12.05%. [42] - **Coke Month - to - Month Spread**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coke Supply**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coke Demand**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coke Total Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 920.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.31 million tons. [54] - **Coke Inventory Distribution**: The inventory of steel mills was 650.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.6 million tons; the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 81.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.26 million tons; the port inventory was 188.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.97 million tons. [54] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Futures Positions**: No specific data is provided in the report.

沪铜周报 美铜关税预期降温，铜牛回头蓄力 【核心观点】铜高位波动放大，建议铜短期多单继续持有，移动逢高止盈，充分回调后仍是布局 良机，长期依旧看好铜 【策略展望】 4 本周宏观多空交织，特朗普铜关税预期降温和英伟达澄清铜需求量级，两大"神话"被戳破，铜 价急刹车冲高回落。短期看，利好"变脸"叠加传统消费淡季，铜价高位大幅震荡在所难免，这 是对前期过快上涨的修正。但中长期看，驱动铜市的底层逻辑并未逆转，全球资源博弈、供 应链扭曲、绿色转型带来的刚性需求，这三大引擎依然在轰鸣。所以，铜的牛市并非结束， 而是进入了更加波动、以高位盘整消化情绪、等待下一个驱动信号的中场休息阶段。 建议前期铜多单移动止盈，关注10万关键心理关口，20日均线（96926）以及30日均线 （94679）支撑。熊市多暴涨牛市多暴跌，守正出奇，顺势而为。中长期看，铜作为中美博弈 的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，对铜依旧 看好。 短期沪铜关注区间【95000，105000】元/吨，伦铜关注区间【12500，13500】风险关注：中 美关系，铜矿干扰，需求不足 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 研究 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously chase up [3] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market of energy and chemical products is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Most products face downward pressure due to factors like supply overhang, seasonal weak demand, or geopolitical easing [1][3][7]. - Some products show a game between weak reality and strong expectation, such as methanol, where the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, but there are expectations for future changes [3]. - For fertilizers like urea, although there are some positive factors like export and spring fertilization expectations, the downstream demand in the festival season is weakening, and the supply pressure is rising [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On January 16, WTI rose 0.44%, Brent rose 0.58%, and SC fell 2.81%. As of January 9, US crude oil inventory increased by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels [10][11]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global crude oil inventory and inventory of US crude oil and refined products. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle [1][12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production to lower prices, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Pay attention to non - OPEC+ production changes. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but it is under pressure in the medium - and long - term. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 445] [14]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,144 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to varying degrees [16][17]. - **Core Logic**: It is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the long - term. The supply and demand are relatively stable, with downstream chemical demand showing resilience. As of January 16, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 36 lots [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. Focus on the range of PG [4,100 - 4,200] [19]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price and related data changed. The L05 basis was 0 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 35 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Core Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream are destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost in the short - term. In 2025, from January to November, Iran accounted for 8.7% of China's imports. The shutdown ratio increased to 14%, and production is expected to increase slightly [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of L [6,650 - 6,800] [23]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price and related data changed. The PP05 basis was - 117 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 43 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Core Logic**: The warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and the supply is slightly increasing. It will fluctuate weakly following the cost in the short - term. The supply and demand are weak, and the demand is in the off - season in January. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of PP [6,450 - 6,600] [27]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price and related data changed. The V05 basis was - 218 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 124 yuan/ton [29][30]. - **Core Logic**: The social inventory is increasing at a high level. Although there is an expectation of rush - exporting in the short - term, the long - term supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse. The domestic operation rate has increased to 80%, and the internal and external demand is in the seasonal off - season [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of V [4,700 - 4,900] [31]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract price and related data changed. The TA05 basis was - 58 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 44 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee was 401.6 yuan/ton [32]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side devices are under planned maintenance with a relatively high intensity. The downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost - end PX supply and demand are in a weak balance. There is a slight inventory accumulation from January to February, but the expectation is positive from the perspective of production and demand [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for TA05. Focus on the range of TA05 [5,020 - 5,120] [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price and related data changed. The EG05 basis was - 101 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 104 yuan/ton [35]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic device load has increased. The downstream demand is seasonally weak. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from January to February. It lacks upward driving force and follows the cost to fluctuate [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG05 [3,730 - 3,820] [37]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol comprehensive profit was - 215.5 yuan/ton, and the East China basis strengthened [40]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic methanol device operation rate has declined from a high level. The overseas devices are slightly under - loaded. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January. The demand is slightly weakening. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Close long positions. Focus on the range of MA05 [2,225 - 2,285] [42]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The urea main contract price and related data changed. The Shandong small - particle urea basis was - 31 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 29 yuan/ton [43]. - **Core Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply - side operation rate is rising, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period. The short - term demand is strong, but the downstream demand is entering the festival off - season. There is a ceiling and a floor for the price under relevant policies [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage has limited positive effects, the supply pressure is rising, and the demand is seasonally weak. Focus on the range of UR05 [1,780 - 1,810] [46]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the NG main contract closed at 3.128 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.26% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price and other prices changed [48][49]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is stable, and the price is under pressure. The domestic LNG retail profit increased. The US natural gas rig count decreased [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, although the demand has support, the supply is relatively abundant, and the price is under pressure. Focus on the range of NG [3.355 - 3.991] [50]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the BU main contract closed at 3,130 yuan/ton, down 1.17% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to varying degrees [52][53]. - **Core Logic**: The export of Venezuelan crude oil is uncertain, the raw material is tight, and the Middle East geopolitical situation has eased, leading to a decline in oil prices. The profit has decreased, the supply has increased, and the inventory has risen [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. Focus on the range of BU [3,100 - 3,200] [55]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price and related data changed. The FG05 basis was - 66 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 110 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Core Logic**: The enterprise inventory is slowly decreasing from a high level, and the market is weakly oscillating. The supply and demand are both weak, the profit of three processes has turned negative, and the weak demand suppresses the upside [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of FG [1,080 - 1,130] [59]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price and related data changed. The SA05 basis was - 43 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [61][62]. - **Core Logic**: The production enterprise operation rate has increased, the factory inventory has accumulated against the season, and the market has returned to weak oscillation. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [63]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of SA [1,180 - 1,230] [63].

1 豆粕：1 月报告利空 短线收跌 | 期货价格(主力日收盘 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2727 | 2740 | -13 | -0. 47% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3196. 29 | 3204. 29 | -8 | -0. 25% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3140 | 3150 | -10 | -0. 32% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 局趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3237.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2235 | 2247.5 | -12.5 | -0. 56% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1450 | 1450 | ...

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, the black sector showed a volatile trend, with the main contract of rebar rising 0.6% and hot-rolled coil rising 0.6%, while iron ore fell 0.3%, coke fell 1.8%, and coking coal fell 2.1%. The raw material end was weak, and the overall market was dull. Steel had limited contradictions in the off-season, and macro policies did not provide strong driving forces. The supply of raw materials was relatively loose, iron ore inventory reached the highest level in history, and Mongolian coal customs clearance continued to increase. This week, the molten iron output decreased month-on-month, reducing the support for raw materials. External commodity fluctuations increased, and after precious metals and non-ferrous metals soared, they fluctuated sharply. The Wenhua Commodity Index reached the previous high of 170 and then declined [2]. - In the context of the lack of positive drivers for black commodities, the weakening support of raw materials, and the commodity index reaching a key resistance level, it is expected that rebar will face significant pressure near the previous high. Currently, the market has entered the winter storage stage. Due to the need for rebar basis repair and the market's expectation of raw material replenishment by steel mills, it may support the futures market in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the possibility of the market weakening after the positive factors weaken. One can choose the opportunity to conduct sell hedging operations or sell out-of-the-money call options to enhance returns [2]. - There are obvious differences in inventory and basis between hot-rolled coil and rebar. The spot price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar has weakened, and there is still room for the futures price difference to shrink [3]. - The basis in East China has dropped from around 150 last week to around 130, and there is still room for further decline. The spot performance may be weak [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Production - **Monthly Data**: In November 2025, the monthly output of pig iron was 6234000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, and the cumulative output was 77405000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. The monthly output of crude steel was 6987000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, and the cumulative output was 89167000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%. The monthly output of steel was 11591000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, and the cumulative output was 133277000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The monthly import volume of steel was 52000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and the cumulative import volume was 606000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The monthly export volume of steel was 1130000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and the cumulative export volume was 11902000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [6]. - **Weekly Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output of rebar was 190300 tons, a decrease of 0.74 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11%. The weekly consumption was 190340 tons, an increase of 15.38 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 8%. The inventory was 438070 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.84%. The weekly output of wire rod was 73490 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7%. The weekly consumption was 72000 tons, an increase of 5.28 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10%. The inventory was 91760 tons, an increase of 1.95 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The weekly output of hot-rolled coil was 308360 tons, an increase of 2.85 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 314160 tons, an increase of 5.82 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4%. The inventory was 362330 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The weekly output of cold-rolled coil was 88670 tons, a decrease of 0.17 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. The weekly consumption was 91930 tons, an increase of 3.08 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.25%. The inventory was 158490 tons, a decrease of 3.26 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.47%. The weekly output of medium and heavy plate was 158390 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.78%. The weekly consumption was 158150 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.17%. The inventory was 196360 tons, an increase of 0.24 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.55%. The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 819210 tons, an increase of 0.62 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6.16%. The total weekly consumption was 826000 tons, an increase of 29 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.58%. The total inventory was 1247000 tons, a decrease of 6.91 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.29% [7]. Steel Production Profit - On January 15, 2026, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 120, a decrease of 5; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 33, an increase of 2; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 88, an increase of 2; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was 19, an increase of 15. In North China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 5, a decrease of 7; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 55, an increase of 1; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 29, no change; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was - 93, an increase of 3. In Central China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 175, no change; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 46, a decrease of 17; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 88, a decrease of 17; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was 65, a decrease of 10 [22]. Steel Demand - **Real Estate**: In 2025, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities was 10%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 19% [30]. - **Cement and Concrete**: The cement delivery volume was lower than the previous year for most of 2025, and it is still lower than the same period last year in 2026. The concrete delivery volume is the same as the same period last year [33]. - **Steel Export**: In December, the steel export volume was 1.13 million tons, close to the historical highest level. The export profit of hot-rolled coil has generally declined recently [39]. Steel Inventory - **Rebar**: The rebar basis decreased slightly this week, but the absolute level is still high. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot-rolled coil. Later, the rebar output may be stronger than the seasonal performance, and the decline will weaken. The apparent demand increased month-on-month, but it may only be a short-term pulse phenomenon. According to past rules, the basis is expected to narrow. The rebar inventory stopped decreasing this week, and the inventory increase is earlier in the lunar calendar. After the production control in 2025 ended, the release of production capacity may lead to relatively better rebar supply, and the month spread is difficult to strengthen [52][62]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The hot-rolled coil basis fluctuates around - 30, with little change. Although it is currently at a low level, the relatively high inventory of hot-rolled coil still suppresses the basis and limits the upward space. The hot-rolled coil 5 - 10 month spread fluctuates around - 20. The overall high inventory of hot-rolled coil and the difficulty in de-stocking suppress the month spread [56][67]. Price Difference - **Volume - Rebar Price Difference**: There are obvious differences in inventory and basis between hot-rolled coil and rebar. The spot price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar has weakened, and there is still room for the futures price difference to shrink [3]. - **Basis**: The basis in East China has dropped from around 150 last week to around 130, and there is still room for further decline. The spot performance may be weak [4].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税未裁决，但美欧近期针锋相对，美联储降息概率反复，其他地缘问题一波三折， | | | 长线持有 | 地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性 | | ★★ | | 持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银未被征收关税市场情绪有所舒缓，但同时避险交易、交割逼仓、资源品交易预 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 期持续，短期交易所调保，短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全 | | ★★ | | 球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 特朗普暂缓重要矿产关税，英伟达数据中心铜需求大幅缩水，美国持续虹吸全球铜 | | 铜 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 资源，短期铜高位震荡，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中 长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观多空交织，消费淡季高锌价对需求抑制作用明显，叠加宏观和板块情绪退潮， | | 锌 | 承压回落 | 锌承压回落。企业卖出套保积极布局，锁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bearish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: Demand rebounds month-on-month, production and inventory remain largely unchanged. Profits are acceptable, but production increase is not expected due to the off-season. Iron ore prices are high, suppressing steel mills' restocking enthusiasm. The overall situation maintains range-bound operation [1][4] - Hot-rolled coil: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory decreases slightly but the absolute level is high, and the de-stocking speed is slow. Spot prices are relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market, and the medium-term outlook is range-bound [1][4] - Iron ore: Iron water production decreases slightly month-on-month, steel mills restock as needed, port inventory accumulates rapidly, and the fundamentals weaken marginally. The overall situation is range-bound [1][6] - Coke: The fourth round of price cuts has been implemented, and some coke enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases. After the increase in raw coal prices, the losses of coke enterprises have deepened, but the short-term production enthusiasm is still acceptable, and the supply decreases slightly month-on-month. Iron water production decreases slightly, downstream restocking improves slightly, and procurement is mainly based on demand. Market sentiment is volatile, and short-term range-bound operation is expected [1][10] - Coking coal: Previously shut-down coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the supply has increased significantly month-on-month. In terms of imports, the port clearance volume has returned to the same period's high level. Recent spot transactions have improved, downstream restocking willingness is strong, and mine inventory has decreased well. There are no obvious contradictions in the fundamentals, and short-term range-bound operation is expected [1][14] - Ferromanganese: Regional supply decreases month-on-month, demand improves marginally, inventory begins to decline but the absolute level is still high. A new round of steel tenders has begun, and the recent tender prices are mostly in the range of 5870 - 5940 yuan/ton. A leading steel mill plans to purchase 17,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2300 tons, and the first-round inquiry price is 5850 yuan/ton. The final pricing should be monitored. Short-term range-bound operation is expected [1][17] - Ferrosilicon: The supply in the main production areas increases month-on-month, demand improves marginally, and inventory increases significantly month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders has begun, and the final pricing of a leading steel mill is 5760 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 100 yuan/ton. The actions of other steel mills should be monitored. Short-term range-bound operation is expected [1][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Price Information** - Rebar futures: The latest prices of 01, 05, and 10 contracts are 3165, 3160, and 3206 respectively, with changes of 22, -2, and -4 [2] - Hot-rolled coil futures: The latest prices of 01, 05, and 10 contracts are 3329, 3307, and 3324 respectively, with changes of 78, 1, and -6 [2] - Spot prices: The latest prices of Tangshan billet, rebar in different regions, and hot-rolled coil in different regions are provided, along with their price changes [2] - Basis: The latest basis and its changes for rebar and hot-rolled coil in different contracts and regions are given [2] - Futures spreads: The latest spreads and their changes for different contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil are presented [2] - Spot spreads: The latest spreads and their changes for different regions of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and other products are shown [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Mid-term range-bound operation [3][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Information**: None provided in the given content - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, with iron water production slightly decreasing and supply-demand weakening month-on-month [7] 3.3 Coke - **Price Information** - Futures: The latest prices of 1, 5, and 9 contracts are 1500.0, 1745.0, and 1819.5 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.0, 6.5, and 4.0 [9] - Spot: The prices of different types of coke in different regions remain unchanged [9] - Basis and spreads: The latest basis and spreads for different contracts and their changes are provided [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term range-bound operation, cautiously bearish [8][11] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price Information** - Futures: The latest prices of 1, 5, and 9 contracts are 1100.0, 1187.5, and 1266.0 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 21.5, -9.0, and -9.5 [13] - Spot: The prices of different types of coking coal in different regions are given, with some showing slight decreases [13] - Basis and spreads: The latest basis and spreads for different contracts and their changes are presented [13] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term range-bound operation, cautiously bearish [12][15] 3.5 Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information** - Futures: The latest prices and price changes of different contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are provided [16] - Spot: The latest prices and price changes of different types of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon in different regions are given [16] - Basis and spreads: The latest basis and spreads for different contracts and their changes are presented [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term range-bound operation for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, with attention to steel mills' pricing in the new round of steel tenders [16][18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term decline**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [2][5][7] - **Short - term adjustment**: Palm oil [2][10] - **Rebound under pressure**: Cotton [2] - **Short - term rebound**: Live pigs, red dates [2][3] Core Views - **Soybean meal**: In the first quarter, the estimated imports are expected to decline year - on - year, and the cost of importing US soybeans has increased, making domestic spot prices resistant to decline. The soft inventory of US soybeans, along with increased area, production, and end - of - season inventory, has led to a decline in US soybeans. The continuous decline of rapeseed meal has also dragged down soybean meal. However, supported by cost and stocking demand, the short - term adjustment space is limited [2][6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The pressure on rapeseed meal spot inventory has eased, and supply is tight. Although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and end - of - season inventory month - on - month, the upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs have affected the market. After an overnight rebound, attention should be paid to the results of the China - Canada meeting from the 13th to the 17th [2][9]. - **Palm oil**: Domestic spot trading is light. Indonesia's announcement that it will not implement the B50 policy in 2026 has dampened market bullish sentiment. Fortunately, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month increased month - on - month. Palm oil is in a short - term adjustment phase, and short - long opportunities after the adjustment can be noted [2][11]. - **Soybean oil**: Domestic soybean oil inventory has decreased month - on - month but is still higher than the five - year average. Pre - holiday stocking has led to good domestic spot trading. However, the bearish data from the US soybean side and the decline of palm oil have caused soybean oil to decline. Bullish sentiment should be put on hold for now, and attention should be paid to when palm oil stops falling [2][4]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The market is weak externally and strong internally. The suspension of China - Canada rapeseed trade has tightened domestic supply, but the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs have suppressed market bullish sentiment. After a significant overnight rebound, attention should be paid to the results of the China - Canada meeting this week [2]. - **Cotton**: The January USDA data is moderately bullish for the ICE market. The decline of the US dollar index and the strength of external commodities support the cotton market, and the US cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term. In China, new cotton processing is basically completed, and the sales progress has slowed down. The pressure on raw material inventory has increased, and attention should be paid to the suppression of the market by the further deterioration of textile enterprises' profits. In the short term, the market is expected to rebound under pressure, and in the long - term, prices are expected to continue to recover [2][13][15]. - **Red dates**: Recently, the spot market has been dull. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption season, market fluctuations have increased. High inventory levels are still putting pressure on the rebound of jujube prices. In a supply - demand surplus situation, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. In the short term, the bearish trend has slowed down, and short - term rebound opportunities can be noted [2][17]. - **Live pigs**: In mid - to - early January, the market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, affected by the entry of second - fattening pigs and the reduction of group sales volume, the spot market still has some support in the short term, and the supply - side pressure will be postponed to the end of January to February. Attention should be paid to the demand before the Spring Festival. For contracts, after the 01 contract enters delivery, focus on the 03 contract; the 05 contract has a weak supply - demand pattern; the 09 and 11 contracts are in a short - term data vacuum period and should be observed [2][3][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, national port soybean inventory was 802.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.8 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 713.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.87 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 108.56 million tons. The soybean meal inventory was 104.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.62 million tons [6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2751 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3204.29 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.15 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of January 9, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [9]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2289 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2455.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.95 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 73.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 million tons [11]. - **Export**: From January 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased month - on - month [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous day. The national average price was 8633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Cotton - **International**: The January USDA report had a moderately bullish impact on the global cotton market. In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton production was revised down by 7.8 million tons, consumption was revised up by 6.7 million tons, and the end - of - season inventory was revised down by 32.4 million tons [13]. - **Domestic**: New cotton picking is basically completed, with a ginned cotton inspection volume exceeding 6.6 million tons. The national total production is expected to increase by 26 million tons to 7.68 million tons. The new - season lint cost is basically locked between 14,600 - 15,200 yuan/ton, and the sales progress has slowed down [14]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2605) closed at 14,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,972 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Red Dates - **Supply and Demand**: The acquisition in the production area is almost over, and market supply has increased. It has entered the winter consumption season. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, but still higher than the same period last year [17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2605) closed at 9040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions remained stable [16]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In January, the planned slaughter of sample enterprises is expected to decrease, but there is still pressure on the supply side, especially at the end of January. The number of new - born piglets in December increased, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased [19]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (lh2603) closed at 11,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 12,740 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish consolidation [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously chase long [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously chase long [2] - Urea: Bullish with oscillations [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Different products show various trends due to their unique fundamentals. For example, crude oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions; while some products like PX/PTA and urea have certain upward expectations under specific supply - demand and cost conditions [1][2][3]. 3. Summaries According to Related Categories 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight, WTI dropped 4.52%, Brent dropped 4.15%, and SC rose 0.60%. As of January 2, US crude inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels to 242 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 5.6 million barrels to 129.3 million barrels [9][10][12]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, but there is still uncertainty. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of oil, with global oil inventories accelerating accumulation, and US oil and refined product inventories both increasing, leading to significant downward pressure on oil prices [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices, and oil prices are entering a low - price range. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, there may be a rebound, but in the medium - and long - term, prices are under pressure. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 445] [13]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the PG main contract closed at 4244 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [16]. - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost of crude oil, and in the long - term, crude oil is under pressure. The commodity volume is stable, and downstream chemical demand has resilience, providing some support. As of January 16, the inventory in refineries and ports decreased [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil, the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost of crude oil has increased uncertainty. Focus on the range of PG [4100 - 4200] [18]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price increased, the basis was 0 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 35 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream are destocking. In the short - term, it will follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. The shutdown ratio has risen to 14%, and the planned device maintenance is increasing this week, with expected production decline. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has decreased to a low level in the same period. Considering the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and the chemical sector is in a bullish atmosphere, the market is expected to repair profits [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of L [6800 - 6950] [22]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price was stable, the basis was - 117 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 43 yuan/ton [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The total commercial inventory is being destocked. In the short - term, it will follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. In January, the demand side is entering the off - season, the shutdown ratio is 19%, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of PP [6450 - 6650] [26]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price decreased slightly, the basis was - 218 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 124 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Main Logic**: Social inventory has reached a high level, and the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to weakening export demand in the long - term. In the short - term, there is an expectation of rush - exporting. The domestic operating rate has increased to 80%, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. The cost support is strengthening, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of V [4700 - 4900] [29]. 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract price rose, the basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 64 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee was 388.0 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee was 402.0 yuan/ton [30]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply side has high - intensity maintenance overall, and some devices have recovered this week. The downstream demand is relatively good but is expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, with an expectation of inventory accumulation in January and February. Pay attention to the seasonal decline in polyester production [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the range of TA05 [4960 - 5080] [32]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 157 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 94 yuan/ton [33]. - **Main Logic**: The overall valuation is low. The domestic operating load has increased, and the overseas devices have changed little. The downstream demand is relatively good but is expected to weaken seasonally. The port inventory has continued to increase. It has no upward momentum in the short - term and will fluctuate following the cost [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop losses on short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG05 [3730 - 3820] [35]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract reduced positions and rose, the port basis weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthened [38]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic methanol device operating load remains at a high level in the same period, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. The import volume in January is expected to be about 750,000 tons, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand side has slightly improved, but the overall supply - demand is slightly loose, and the downside space may be limited [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between the weak reality and strong expectation. The geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the trading logic should return to the fundamentals. Focus on the range of MA05 [2210 - 2280] [40]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR05 contract price was stable, the basis was - 27 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 23 yuan/ton. The weighted comprehensive profit was 57.41 yuan/ton [41][43]. - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall operating load has increased, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The demand side is weakening, and the winter off - season storage has limited positive effects. However, the domestic and foreign arbitrage window is still open, and there is an expectation of spring fertilizer use [42][43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The positive impact of winter storage is limited, but the export window is still open, and there is an expectation of spring fertilizer use. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, but the rebound height is restricted by the increasing supply pressure. Focus on the range of UR05 [1770 - 1810] [44]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the NG main contract closed at 3.120 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 8.75% from the previous day [47]. - **Main Logic**: The supply side is relatively abundant, and the demand remains stable. The price is under pressure. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The US natural gas inventory has decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for heating provides support, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is under pressure. Focus on the range of NG [2.725 - 3.370] [48]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The BU main contract closed at 3167 yuan/ton on January 15, down 0.03%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [51]. - **Main Logic**: The export of Venezuelan crude oil is still uncertain, and the raw material is tight. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, and the oil price has fallen. The comprehensive profit is stable. The supply has increased, and the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply side has increased uncertainty. Pay attention to risks. Focus on the range of BU [3150 - 3250] [53]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 66 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 110 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of traders in Shahe is at the highest level in the same period, and the market fluctuates weakly. The supply - demand is weak, and the three - process profit has turned negative. The weak demand restricts the upward space [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of FG [1050 - 1100] [57]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 43 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [59][60]. - **Main Logic**: The factory inventory has increased against the season, and the market has returned to weak oscillations. The demand support for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The long - term supply is loose, and the demand support is weak [61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [61].

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | | A 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | | | 74 C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税未裁决，美联储降息概率反复，地缘问题一波三折，地缘溢价交易继续，流动 | | | 长线持有 | 性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银未被征收关税市场情绪有所舒缓，但同时避险交易、交割逼仓、资源品交易预 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 期持续。短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银 | | | | 长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 特朗普暂缓重要矿产关税，英伟达数据中心铜需求大幅缩水，美国持续虹吸全球铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 资源，短期铜高位震荡，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中 | | ★ | | 长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | LME 拒绝韩国锌业锌锭注册仓单，受事件型冲击影响，锌迅速拉涨，隔夜高位 ...