中辉有色观点 | | | 资料来源：Wind，中辉期货 行情回顾 中美关系缓和市场避险情绪缓解，金银价格继续调整。 | | | of 100 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | র মাধ্যম | C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美关系缓和避险情绪减少。但是短期中东问题、俄乌问题反复，主要央行继续购 | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 买黄金。中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，战略 | | ★★ | | 配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银盘面继续震荡调整，目前伦敦库存极低，外围环境不稳，短期波动仍然较大。 | | | 高位调整 | 长期全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变。黄金等品种波动会白银盘面波动有 | | ★★ | | 冲击。长线等企稳再做多 | | | | 中美双方达成基本共识，美通胀数据不及预期，美联储 10 月降息几乎板上钉钉，市 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 场风险偏好提高，建议前期铜多单继续持有，谨慎追高，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求 | | ★★ | | 爆发，铜中长期依旧看 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural gas, asphalt [1][2][5] - Bearish rebound: L, PP, PVC [1] - Cautiously bearish: Methanol, urea [2] - Bearish consolidation: Glass, soda ash [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and strategies for various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations. For example, geopolitical tensions and macro - factors are driving short - term price rebounds in some products, while long - term supply - demand imbalances may lead to price declines [1][7]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rose significantly, with WTI up 5.62%, Brent up 4.31%, and SC up 2.76% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical tensions in South America and new sanctions on Russia have led to a price rebound, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to continue to decline [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by sanctions on Russian oil companies; demand growth is expected to slow; and US commercial crude inventories decreased last week [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, buy call options to control risks, and also buy put options. Pay attention to the SC range of [465 - 475] [9]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On October 23, the PG main contract closed at 4204 yuan/ton, up 1.79% [11][12]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost of crude oil. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has improved, and port inventories have declined [13]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the PG range of [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6999 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have not kept up, the basis has weakened, and it rebounds weakly following the cost. Supply is expected to be loose, and demand has limited restocking motivation [18]. - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term short positions can be reduced, and wait for the rebound to enter short positions. Pay attention to the L range of [6900 - 7050] [18]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6691 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have not kept up, the basis has weakened, and the supply - demand situation is weak. Oil prices may continue to fall, and cost support is insufficient [23]. - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term short positions can be reduced, and wait for the rebound to enter short positions. Pay attention to the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4719 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventories are high, but there is an expectation of increased exports. New production capacity has been mostly released, and attention should be paid to potential production cuts [27]. - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Short - term light - position participation in the rebound is recommended. Pay attention to the V range of [4600 - 4800] [27]. PX - **Basic Logic**: Supply from domestic and overseas plants has decreased slightly, demand is expected to improve, and cost is supported by the short - term oil price rebound [28]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at low valuations and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the PX range of [6520 - 6600] [29]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA01 contract closed at 4402 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is expected to increase with planned plant overhauls and new plant startups. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is a high inventory build - up pressure from October to November. It follows the cost and fluctuates weakly [31]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at low valuations and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the TA range of [4520 - 4580] [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG01 contract closed at 4085 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic plants have increased production, overseas plants have slightly decreased production, and inventories have increased slightly. It has limited upward momentum and follows the cost [34]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the EG range of [4060 - 4140] [35]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The MA01 contract closed at 2272 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basic Logic**: High inventories suppress spot prices. Supply pressure is high, and demand lacks significant positive factors. Cost support is weak [37]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 contract closed at 1602 yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak domestically but exports are good. Inventories are accumulating, and cost support exists [41]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously, but consider light - position long - term long positions due to low valuations. Pay attention to the UR range of [1615 - 1645] [43]. Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: With the decrease in temperature, demand is expected to increase, but supply is also sufficient. Short - term geopolitical factors should be monitored [5]. - **Strategy**: Not mentioned in the report. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is relatively loose, and cost is affected by geopolitical factors. Current valuations are high [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options [5]. Glass - **Basic Logic**: Post - holiday inventories have increased counter - seasonally, domestic demand is weak, and supply is under pressure [5]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in short - term trading due to capital games, and be bearish on medium - term rebounds [5]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: Inventories are high, supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [5]. - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices, and be bearish on medium - to - long - term rebounds. Hold long positions in the soda - glass spread [5].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹周度产量与表观需求均回升，库存继续回落。目前供需均低于去年同期，库存略偏 | | | 谨慎看多 | 高，降库速度一般，整体供需偏弱，向上驱动力量有限。前期下行后或进入底部磨底状 | | ★ | | 态。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 热卷表需回升，产量持平略增，库存小幅下降，但仍较往年同期偏高。目前铁水产量仍 | | ★ | | 较高，钢材整体供应处于高位，压制行情上方表现，短期或低位区间运行。 | | | | 数据来看，铁水微降，钢厂去库，港口明显累库。但外矿发货高位放量，到货明显缩量。 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 钢企利润快速压缩，静态基本面中性偏弱。下游成材端节后库存压力逐步体现，产业负 | | ★ | | 反馈担忧加重。关注钢厂减产情况，短期矿价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | 第二轮提涨落地延后，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润近期较稳定，现货生产相对稳定。铁水 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 产量维持高位运行，原料需求较佳。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤区间运行。 | | ★ | | | | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 据传阿根廷第二船豆粕可能重新进入中国市场，叠加特朗普言论缓和，利空市场情 | | | | 绪。但由于中美贸易关税影响，豆粕现货市场心态保守。此外，巴西未来十五天降 | | 豆粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 雨展望低于正常水平，在中美贸易暂无新的进展的情况下，天气因素暂支持豆粕价 | | ★ | | 格止跌整理，中美谈判预计将维持近低之上运行为主。但由于中美谈判在即存在变 | | | | 数，反弹空间预计有限，追多需要谨慎，短线参与为主。关注巴西降雨、月底中美 | | | | 会晤以及贸易后续进展。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | 棕榈油 | | 本月前二十天马棕榈油出口环比增速减缓，昨日马棕榈油公布本月前 20 日产量环 | | | 短线回落 | 比增幅较大，利空市场情绪下跌。印度排灯 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment [1] - Silver: High-level adjustment [1] - Copper: Long-term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Nickel: Stabilize and recover [1] - Industrial silicon: Range-bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are temporarily halted from falling due to factors such as tense US-Russia relations and uncertain US policies. In the short term, there are key negotiation periods and geopolitical issues, while in the long term, the supporting logic remains unchanged, including the start of an interest rate cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1][3]. - Silver prices are in a high-level adjustment. In the short term, the market fluctuates greatly, and in the long term, global policy stimulus will drive up demand, resulting in a continuous supply-demand gap [1]. - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term. With the improvement of the market atmosphere and the increase in risk appetite, it is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions should wait for a pullback [1][7]. - Zinc prices are in a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long term, supply will increase while demand will decrease [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain bullish in the short term due to the stabilization of alumina prices and the depletion of inventories during the peak season [1][14]. - Nickel prices are stabilizing and recovering, supported by the peak season demand for nickel sulfate [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory has been decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to hold long positions [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold and silver prices showed signs of halting their decline due to tense US-Russia relations and the EU's new round of sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the US economic data was strong. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The long-term upward logic remains unchanged. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity to enter the market when gold and silver prices halt their decline. For domestic gold, pay attention to the support at 930, and for silver, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at 11,200. Long-term positions can continue to be held [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper opened higher overnight and consolidated at a high level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. After the copper price rose, downstream demand was weak, and domestic social inventories increased slightly [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to continue holding long positions in copper, be cautious about chasing high prices, and new long positions should wait for a pullback. In the long term, copper is a strategic resource in the US-China game and a substitute for precious metals, and its demand is expected to increase [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc opened lower overnight and then rose, recovering the gap [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc smelters are actively producing. The peak season demand is weak, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas markets continues [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc prices are in a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long term, it is still a short position in the sector. Pay attention to the resistance at 22,500 [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rise, and alumina prices stabilized [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached a high level, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices also rose [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances have weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. The peak season demand for stainless steel is not obvious, and the market is under pressure to destock [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for now, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened higher and closed higher, with increasing positions and trading volume [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory has been decreasing for 9 consecutive weeks. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is strong. The main funds may drive up the price when shifting positions [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract, with a focus on the range of 78,500 - 82,000 [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural gas, asphalt [1][2][5] - Bearish rebound: L, PP [1] - Bearish consolidation: PVC, glass, soda ash [1][5] - Cautiously bearish: Methanol, urea [2] Core Views - The core driver of the oil price is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down. However, short - term geopolitical conflicts may cause the oil price to rebound [7]. - The prices of LPG, L, PP, PVC, and other products are mainly affected by cost support and supply - demand relationships. Most of them are in a state of supply surplus, and the prices are under pressure, but there may be short - term rebounds [1]. - PX and PTA have the expectation of supply - demand improvement, but the cost side is affected by the oil price, and the prices are expected to be volatile [1][29][32]. - Ethylene glycol has limited upward driving force due to increased supply and inventory accumulation, and is expected to be weak in the short term [35]. - Methanol and urea have weak fundamentals with high supply pressure and limited demand, but there may be some opportunities in the long - term [2][38]. - Natural gas demand is expected to pick up with the temperature drop, and the price may rise [5]. - Asphalt supply - demand is relatively loose, but short - term geopolitical factors may cause price fluctuations [5]. - Glass and soda ash are in a state of supply - demand surplus, and the prices are expected to be weak [5]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI rising 0.39%, Brent rising 0.51%, and SC falling 0.66% [6]. - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts lead to a rebound in oil prices, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, buy call options to control risks, and also buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [9]. LPG - **Market performance**: On October 22, the PG main contract closed at 4130 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [12]. - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The cost end rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand side support declines [13]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [14]. L - **Market performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6874 yuan/ton (- 55) [17]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, and there is a weak rebound. Supply continues to be loose, and the demand side has insufficient restocking power [18]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Short - term follow the cost rebound, short positions leave the market, and wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the range of L [6800 - 7000] [18]. PP - **Market performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6583 yuan/ton (+ 18) [22]. - **Basic logic**: Short - term cost support improves, following the weak rebound of the chemical sector. Supply - demand is weak, and there is high inventory - removal pressure in the future [23]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Short - term follow the cost rebound, reduce short positions, and wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [23]. PVC - **Market performance**: The V2601 closed at 4719 yuan/ton (+ 20) [26]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, following the chemical sector rebound. Domestic demand is weak, and the sustainability of exports is questionable. Supply is loose [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand weakness is difficult to change. The absolute price is undervalued. Participate in the short - term rebound with a light position. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [27]. PX - **Market performance**: The prices of PX futures contracts declined [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side devices have slightly reduced loads, and demand is expected to improve. PXN is not low this year, and the PX - MX spread is narrowing. The cost - end crude oil price rebounds in the short term [29]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is not high. Short positions should stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the future. Pay attention to the range of PX [6410 - 6490] [30]. PTA - **Market performance**: The prices of PTA futures contracts declined [31]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and new devices are about to be put into production. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is a large inventory - accumulation pressure from October to November [32]. - **Strategy**: The valuation and processing fees are not high. Short positions should stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the future. Pay attention to the range of TA [4450 - 4520] [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market performance**: The prices of ethylene glycol futures contracts declined [34]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic devices increase loads, and overseas devices slightly reduce loads. The arrival and import volume are still low compared to the same period. Supply increases, and inventory accumulates slightly [35]. - **Strategy**: Partially stop losses on short positions. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices during the rebound. Pay attention to the range of EG [4020 - 4100] [36]. Methanol - **Market performance**: The prices of methanol futures contracts declined [37]. - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses the spot price. The supply pressure is large, and the demand has no obvious positive factors. The cost support is weakly stable [38]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [38]. Urea - **Market performance**: Shandong small - particle urea is weakly stable, and the basis slightly weakens [2]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase after the return of maintenance devices, and demand is weak at home and strong abroad. The inventory is accumulating [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. For the long - term, try to go long with a light position [2]. Natural Gas - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Temperature drops, demand is expected to pick up, and the gas price rebounds. The supply is sufficient [5]. - **Strategy**: Not mentioned Asphalt - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances, but the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively loose [5]. - **Strategy**: Partially stop losses on short positions [5] Glass - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Domestic demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. The inventory in the factory increases after the festival [5]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand surplus continues. The absolute price is low. Short on the medium - term rebound [5] Soda Ash - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: The inventory in the factory accumulates after the festival, and supply is loose. The demand is mostly rigid [5]. - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. Short on the long - term rebound. Hold the long position of the alkali - glass spread [5]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹表需正常回升，产量略降，库存回落，数据整体符合季节性特征。目前表观消费仍 | | 螺纹钢 ★ | 谨慎看多 | 低于去年同期，成交低迷，下游需求疲弱。铁水产量维持高位，总体供给偏高，供需向 上驱动力量有限。近期盘面的下跌体现了供需宽松的状态，连续下行后或有短期反弹。 | | | | 热卷表需回升，产量小幅下降，库存继续上升，同期偏高，超出季节性表现。目前铁水 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 产量仍较高，热卷生产利润好于螺纹，后期库存矛盾或进一步发展，表现或相对偏弱。 | | ★ | | | | | | 数据来看，铁水微降，钢厂去库，港口明显累库。但外矿发货高位放量，到货明显缩量。 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 钢企利润快速压缩，静态基本面中性偏弱。下游成材端节后库存压力逐步体现，产业负 | | ★ | | 反馈担忧加重。关注钢厂减产情况，短期矿价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | 第二轮提涨落地延后，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润近期较稳定，现货生产相对稳定。铁水 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 产量维持高位运行，原料需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bearish consolidation**: For soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, and live pigs, the short - term trends are either bearish consolidation or downward pressure. For example, soymeal is expected to have short - term bearish consolidation due to potential Argentine bean meal re - entry and Trump's remarks, and the current Sino - US trade tariffs provide some support at around 2800 [1][4]. - **Rebound and short - selling**: For live pigs, the short - term market is seen as a rebound, but it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds due to increasing supply pressure in Q4 and weakening demand after the festival [1][17]. - **High - level shock**: Palm oil is in a high - level shock state with a short - term adjustment trend due to the slowdown in the month - to - month export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days [1][8]. - **Range - bound shock**: ICE cotton market is expected to maintain a range - bound shock, and the domestic cotton market has short - term upward pressure [1][12]. - **Sell on rallies**: For jujubes, based on the current production forecast and inventory, there is still pressure after the new fruit is on the market. It is recommended to sell on rallies before and after the new jujubes are harvested [1][15]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price and profit**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2885 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous day. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 167.3596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.02 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 988.4 million tons, a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week. The 125 oil - mill soybean inventory is 768.7 million tons, an increase of 2.94 million tons from the previous week, and the bean meal inventory is 97.62 million tons, a decrease of 10.29 million tons from the previous week [3]. - **Market situation**: The spot market has sufficient supply, but the oil - mill profit is in a loss state, leading to an increase in the willingness to support prices. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm is low, and they mainly replenish inventory at low prices [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price and profit**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2307 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 351.1355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.52 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory is 0.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons from the previous week [6]. - **Market situation**: The international market has an expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. The domestic market is in a de - stocking state, but the demand enters the seasonal off - season. It follows the trend of soymeal due to the lack of new driving factors [6]. Palm Oil - **Price and inventory**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 9164 yuan/ton, down 1.40% from the previous day. As of October 17, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 57.57 million tons, an increase of 2.81 million tons from the previous week [7][8]. - **Market situation**: The month - to - month export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days has slowed down, which is bearish for the market sentiment. Considering the unchanged biodiesel policy, it is a short - term adjustment trend [1][8]. Cotton - **Price and inventory**: The latest price of the main contract CF2601 is 13535 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The national cotton commercial inventory has increased to 143.34 million tons, 20 million tons lower than the same period [9]. - **Market situation**: In the US, the new cotton harvest is over half - way. In Brazil, the new cotton processing and inspection is over 70%. Domestically, the new cotton picking progress is nearly 70%. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is seasonally weak. The main contract price is approaching the intensive hedging pressure level, and there is a risk of re - pricing decline [1][12]. Jujubes - **Price and inventory**: The latest price of the main contract CJ2601 is 11265 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9167 tons, a decrease of 158 tons from the previous week [13][14]. - **Market situation**: The new jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and there is a risk of short - term speculation. The demand is gradually improving, but there is no obvious inflection point. It is recommended to sell on rallies before and after the new jujubes are harvested [1][15]. Live Pigs - **Price and inventory**: The latest price of the main contract 1h2601 is 12220 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The national sample - enterprise pig inventory is 3839.01 million tons, an increase of 56.61 million tons from the previous month [16]. - **Market situation**: In the short term, the October planned slaughter volume of enterprises has increased. The increase in the standard - fat price difference has stimulated some secondary fattening. The supply pressure in Q4 is still high, and the demand has declined after the festival. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [1][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level correction, long-term strategic allocation value remains, short-term wait and see [2] - Silver: High-level adjustment, long-term bullish, short-term exit and wait and see, long-term wait for stabilization to go long [2] - Copper: High-level consolidation, long-term bullish, copper long positions to be held with caution [2] - Zinc: Rebound, long-term supply increase and demand decrease, rebound to sell high [2] - Lead: Rebound [2] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [2] - Aluminum: Relatively strong, short-term rise and then fall [2] - Nickel: Stabilize [2] - Industrial silicon: Range operation, short-term weak operation, wait and see [2] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish, wait for callback to buy [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, hold long positions [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various non-ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomics, supply and demand, and geopolitics. In the short term, the prices of some varieties may fluctuate due to market sentiment and short-term events, while in the long term, the supply and demand fundamentals and macro environment will play a decisive role [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Technical selling continues to suppress the gold price, and the center of gravity of gold continues to decline [3] - **Basic Logic**: The US government shutdown, the US debt scale exceeding 38 trillion US dollars, the twists and turns of the Trump-Putin meeting. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for the gold price to stop falling in the short term, and the long-term upward logic remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of 920 for domestic gold. For silver, pay attention to the sentiment rhythm and the effectiveness of the support at 11,000. Long-term positions can continue to be held [5] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stabilizes at a high level and fluctuates narrowly [7] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, domestic copper concentrate imports increase, and the electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink. The downstream is cautious due to high prices, and the domestic social inventory accumulates slightly [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold copper long positions with caution, use trailing stop-loss to protect profits. New long positions wait for the callback to stabilize. For enterprises, producers can sell hedging at high prices, and processors wait for the opportunity to buy hedging. In the long term, be bullish on copper [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc fluctuates and rebounds, standing firm at the 22,000 mark [10] - **Industrial Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, the zinc smelter starts actively, the demand is under pressure, and the overseas LME zinc inventory has a soft squeeze risk [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short-term zinc short positions can gradually take profits, and wait for the rebound to go short again. In the long term, zinc is a short allocation [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price continues to rise, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [13] - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is high, the inventory decreases, and the demand is relatively stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short term, pay attention to the start of downstream processing enterprises, and the main operating range is [20,800 - 21,500] [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounds slightly, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [17] - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas nickel ore supply disturbance weakens, the domestic pure nickel inventory accumulates, and the stainless steel inventory increases. The terminal consumption in the peak season needs further observation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, and the main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 123,000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opens high and goes high, increasing positions and rising more than 1% [21] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, the total inventory has declined for 9 consecutive weeks, the demand is strong, the supply is at a high level, and the terminal demand is booming [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract, with the range of [76,800 - 78,500] [23]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹表需正常回升，产量略降，库存回落，数据整体符合季节性特征。目前表观消费仍 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 低于去年同期，成交低迷，下游需求疲弱。铁水产量维持高位，总体供给偏高，供需向 | | ★ | | 上驱动力量有限。近期盘面的下跌体现了供需宽松的状态，连续下行后或有短期反弹。 | | | | 热卷表需回升，产量小幅下降，库存继续上升，同期偏高，超出季节性表现。目前铁水 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 产量仍较高，热卷生产利润好于螺纹，后期库存矛盾或进一步发展，表现或相对偏弱。 | | ★ | | | | | | 数据来看，铁水微降，钢厂去库，港口明显累库。但外矿发货高位放量，到货明显缩量。 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 钢企利润快速压缩，静态基本面中性偏弱。下游成材端节后库存压力逐步体现，产业负 | | ★ | | 反馈担忧加重。关注钢厂减产情况，短期矿价震荡偏弱运行。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦企利润近期较稳定，现货生产相对稳定。铁水产量维持高位运行，原料需求较佳。焦 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 炭本 ...