| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量小幅上升，表需环比略降，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续正常去化，目前 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 已降至较低水平。铁水产量基本持平，与去年同期相近。目前宏观政策驱动有限，螺纹 | | | | 供需双弱，区间运行的状态仍将维持。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需小幅上升，库存继续下降，但绝对水平仍然偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情上方空间形成压制，短期或继续 | | | | 维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 数据来看，铁水环比转增。钢厂按需补库，港口增库。外矿发货仍有冲量，基本面偏弱， | | ★ | | 但供给端事件扰动下，交易情绪仍偏强。 | | | | 焦炭开启第四轮提降，预计 1 月 1 日起执行。三轮提降落地后，焦企陷入亏损状态，但 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 亏损程度不深，短期焦企生产积极性尚可，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量 | | ★ | | 环比基本持平，钢厂维持小幅补库。盘面快速 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘不确定性 VS 供给过剩，油价区间震荡。地缘：南美、中东地缘不确 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 定性上升，油价反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+ | | ★ | | 仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存 | | | | 均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化， | | | | 俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 油价受中东地缘扰动，短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反 | | LPG | 空头反弹 | 弹，大趋势仍向下，成本端偏弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升， | | ★ | | PDH 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环 | | | | 比下降。 | | | | 短期跟随市场情绪波动为主。基本面供需双弱，检修降负不足，LL 加权毛 | | L | | 利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期检修难度 | | | 空头反弹 | 相对 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Rebound**: The report suggests short - term rebounds for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and jujube. For soybean meal, although the U.S. soybean export data is poor and domestic soybean inventory has decreased while soybean meal inventory has increased, the expected decline in imports in the first quarter and the rising cost of U.S. soybean imports support the short - term rebound. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal with reduced inventory pressure and shows some resistance to decline. Jujube has a short - term rebound opportunity despite high inventory and a generally bearish supply - demand situation [1][3][6][14]. - **Stop - falling and Rebound**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to stop falling and rebound. Palm oil has a de - stocking expectation in December due to increased export data and reduced production, but the Indonesian policy cools the bullish sentiment. Soybean oil's supply environment has slightly improved, and the import in the first quarter is lower than expected. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply tightness and benefits from domestic edible oil inspections [1][7][8]. - **Oscillate Strongly**: Cotton is expected to oscillate strongly. Internationally, the ICE market is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to mixed factors. Domestically, new cotton processing is almost completed, sales progress is fast, and downstream demand is resilient, but attention should be paid to the suppression of spinning mill profits and external supply [1][9][12]. - **Short - term Rebound for Live Pigs**: Live pigs are expected to have a short - term rebound. Recently, affected by snow and the entry of second - fattening pigs, the supply pressure is postponed to January - February, and the short - term supply - demand pressure eases, which is conducive to the short - term rebound [1][15][16]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 825.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40.50 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 654.44 million tons, a decrease of 67.92 million tons from last week, a decrease of 9.40%. The soybean meal inventory was 116.76 million tons, an increase of 3.05 million tons from last week, an increase of 2.68%. The physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 9.45 days, an increase of 0.22 days from the previous period and 1.01 days from the same period last year [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term long positions after adjustment. Before the U.S. soybean stabilizes, the performance of soybean meal will be restricted. Focus on whether the U.S. soybean export data can improve and the South American weather conditions [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory, rapeseed meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts were all 0 million tons, unchanged from last week. The supply of rapeseed meal is scarce, and the spot price has risen, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal. With the relief of inventory pressure, it shows some resistance to decline. Pay attention to the Australian rapeseed pressing and import policies and the subsequent progress of China - Canada trade [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 73.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.41 million tons, an increase of 4.87%. Different institutions' data on Malaysia's palm oil export and production in the first 25 days of December vary, but generally, there is a de - stocking expectation in December [7][8]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Bullish investors can participate at low prices. Before the de - stocking conclusion in December is confirmed, pay attention to controlling positions. Focus on the final data [1][8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the U.S. new cotton inspection progress is about 78%, India's new cotton daily listing volume is 4.3 million tons, and Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 92.63%, with the 2026 new cotton planting progress at 16.9%. Domestically, new cotton picking is basically completed, the public inspection volume exceeds 6 million tons, and the new - season lint cost is locked at 14,600 - 15,200 yuan/ton. The new cotton sales progress is still fast, and the national commercial inventory has risen to 5.165 billion tons [9][10][11]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of entering the market with long positions on dips. Be vigilant about the suppression of spinning mill profits and external supply on the disk, and focus on the change in the commercial inventory accumulation speed [1][12]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market supply has increased. The 36 - sample physical inventory is 15,898 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210 tons, still higher than the same period last year. The demand in the market varies [13][14]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Maintain a generally bearish attitude, but pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities in the cooling peak season [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the slaughter progress of steel - union sample enterprises in the first 20 days is 70%, and the supply pressure at the end of the month may ease. The entry of second - fattening pigs in Shandong has increased, and the supply pressure is postponed to January - February. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets in November decreased. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is expected to reach the adjustment target by the end of the year [15][16]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The 01 contract is restricted by the delivery logic, and the deep - decline space of the valuation is limited after the spot rebound. For the 03 contract, pay attention to the safety margin after the rebound and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term. For the 09 and 11 contracts, wait and see in the short - term data vacuum period [1][16].

中辉有色观点 盘面表现：今年以来，贵金属抢眼，供需失衡、美联储降息以及交割月大逼仓致使资金涌入 共同催生了本轮的银铂钯"疯涨"行情。但同时关键品种各个指标过热，价格巨幅调整。 ①市场涨跌情况。昨天现货白银亚市早盘历史首次突破80关口，并迅速冲高逼近84美元关口 ，涨幅接近6%。但随后行情急转直下，纽约金一度跌超11%。白银跳水带动其他贵金属同步 下挫，现货钯金一度暴跌17%，现货铂金跌15%，现货黄金跌超5%。国内铂金、钯金双双封 跌停；沪银尾盘跳水，回吐全部日内10%涨幅，夜盘进一步下跌8.74%；沪金收盘跌近1%， COMEX黄金期货收跌4.45%，COMEX白银期货收跌7.2%。 | | 1 11 | A | | --- | --- | --- | | - | | C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 白银、铂金等大波动，波及黄金。不过目前黄金本身来讲短期重大事件落地，流动 | | | 长线持有 | 性风险偏好尚可，基本面短期没有重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不 | | ★ | | 确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配 ...

| 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2790 | 2760 | 30 | 1. 09% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3174.86 | 3143. 71 | 31. 15 | 0. 99% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3100 | 3100 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3187.5 | 3187.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2241. 25 | 2210 | 31. 25 | 1. 41% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1466. 67 | 1466. 67 | 0 | 0. 00% ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 地缘风险、流动性缓解，ETF 资金大量流入。短期重大事件落地，流动性风险偏好尚 可，基本面短期没有重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存 | | ★ | | | | | | 在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 美元持续走弱，白银紧缺线索不断。长期来看市场押注降息持续、供需缺口连续 5 | | ★★ | 控制风险 | 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金银比价大幅快 速降低，盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险。 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 可，基本面短期没有重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存 在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | 控制风险 | 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金银比价 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量小幅上升，表需环比略降，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续正常去化，目前 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 已降至较低水平。铁水产量基本持平，与去年同期相近。目前宏观政策驱动有限，螺纹 | | | | 供需双弱，区间运行的状态仍将维持。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需小幅上升，库存继续下降，但绝对水平仍然偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情上方空间形成压制，短期或继续 | | | | 维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 数据来看，铁水环比转增。钢厂按需补库，港口增库。外矿发货仍有冲量预期，阶段性 | | ★ | | 矿价或承压。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭三轮提降落地，四轮提降预期增强。近期部分地区有再次执行环保预警的预期， 当 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 前焦企生产积极性尚可，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量环比基本持平，钢 厂维持小幅补库。预计短期跟随焦煤价格区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 临近年末煤矿检修增 ...

中辉能化观点 | 中辉能化观点 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘缓和，油价重返基本面定价。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣 | 押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠 | 原油 | | | | 谨慎看空 | 加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和 | ★ | | | 成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油 | 产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | | 成本端承压，供给量上升，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，短线有所反弹， | 大趋势仍向下，成本端偏弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH | LPG | | | | 谨慎看空 | ★ | 开工率升至 | 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下 | | | 降。 | | | | | | 现货由涨转跌，弱基差抑制反弹空间。基本面供需双弱，检修降负不足， | LL | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期 | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， | | 豆粕 | | 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 应预计暂充足，但一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，现货价格表 | | | | 现抗跌。圣诞节美豆休市期间豆粕反弹。关注美豆出口能否改善及南美天气情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，仓单库存压力有所减轻。但全球丰产、进 | | 菜粕 | | 口多元化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主，菜粕一季度供 | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 应整体偏紧，库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。关注澳籽压榨和进 | | | | 口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 马棕榈油 12月20日最新产量数据环比下降。12月马棕榈油累库的可能性依然存在， | | 棕榈油 | 止跌反弹 | 短线以反弹对待，追多谨慎，注意仓位及操作节奏。昨日公布的前 25 日出口数据 | | ★ | | ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 南美地缘不确定性上升，油价短线反弹。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升， 美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国 | | ★ | | 原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国 | | | | 页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端承压，供给量上升，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，短线有所反弹， | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 大趋势仍向下，成本端偏弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH | | ★ | | 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下 | | | 降。 | | | | | 低价成交好转，石化库存加速去化，弱基差抑制反弹空间。基本面供需双 | | L | | 弱，停车比例为 12%，检修降负不足，LL 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但 | | | 空头盘整 | 塑料多以油 ...