Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions [1][7][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1][10][12][13] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1][14][16][17] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish [1][18][19][20] Core Views - **Rebar**: Although there are positive changes in supply and demand with improved sequential apparent demand, slightly decreased production, and reduced inventory, the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. The overall supply of steel is high due to high hot metal production. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still a drag. After the macro events are realized, the sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to move within a range [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The apparent demand has declined, while the production and inventory have increased slightly. The overall change is small, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced with few contradictions. The high hot metal production and weak overall steel demand result in a lack of upward driving force on the supply-demand side, and the price will move within a range [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: With increasing hot metal production, reduced supply, and pre-National Day steel mill restocking, the fundamentals are strong [1][7][8] - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been proposed but not yet implemented. Coke enterprises have decent profits, and the spot production is relatively stable. High hot metal production leads to high raw material demand. The supply and demand of coke are relatively balanced, and the price will move within a range following coking coal [1][10][12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coking coal production is recovering and approaching last year's level, with an improved supply margin. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is high, and the import volume remains at a high level. The slightly increased hot metal production ensures raw material demand. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not significant, and the tight situation has improved. There may be policy disturbances on the supply side later, and the price will move within a range [1][14][16] - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals are becoming looser, and after the new round of restocking demand is released, the subsequent destocking in production areas may become more difficult. The cost side strongly supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited. After the rapid release of the short-term decline sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18][19][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The enterprise inventory has slightly decreased, but the warehouse receipts have stopped decreasing and started to increase, with a still high absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. After the short-term rapid decline, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18][19][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of steel futures (rebar and hot-rolled coil) and spot are provided, including different contract months and regions [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Rebar shows improved apparent demand, slightly decreased production, and reduced inventory, while hot-rolled coil has declining apparent demand and slightly increased production and inventory [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The overall downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the supply-demand driving force is limited. The price of both rebar and hot-rolled coil is expected to move within a range [5] Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of iron ore futures and spot, as well as various price spreads and basis, are presented [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The hot metal production is increasing, the supply is shrinking, and the pre-National Day steel mill restocking makes the fundamentals strong [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [9] Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coke futures and spot, along with various price spreads and basis, are given [11] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The first round of price increase has been proposed but not implemented. Coke enterprises have stable production, and high hot metal production leads to high demand. The supply and demand are relatively balanced [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [13] Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coking coal futures and spot, as well as various price spreads and basis, are provided [15] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The domestic production is recovering, and the import volume is high. The slightly increased hot metal production ensures demand. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not significant [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [17] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures and spot, as well as various price spreads and basis, are presented [18] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The fundamentals of ferromanganese are becoming looser, and the supply-demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: For both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, after the rapid release of the short-term decline sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [20]

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 油价重回基本面定价，供给过剩依然是核心驱动。短期地缘扰动影响下降， | | 原油 | | 油价重回基本面定价，供给过剩压力逐渐上升；库存方面，美国超预期去 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 库，下方存一定支撑；供需方面，9 月 7 日，OPEC+继续扩产，原油供给 | | | | 过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美 | | | | 国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本端油价转弱，下游化工开工率下降，节前排库，液化气维持偏空判断。 | | LPG | | 成本端原油需求下降供给增加，供给过剩压力上升，仍有下探空间；LPG | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 估值修复，主力合约基差处于相对高位；PDH 利润转弱，开工率大幅回落； | | | | 供给端和库存量均上升，偏利空。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 现货止跌反弹，基差继续修复。弱现实与强预期博弈，月差 contongo 结 | | L | | 构深化。前期检修 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周豆粕库存环比增加，国内短期供应充足，美豆收获临近令豆粕承压，但由于中 | | 豆粕 | | 美贸易问题支持，豆粕短线持续下跌空间亦有限，暂以大区间行情对待，隔夜豆粕 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 低开下行。短线有回撤 2930 元方向确认支持的可能。节前看多操作需谨慎对待。 | | | | 基本面偏弱。关注美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线下跌 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且 9 月中印存在采买需求。基本 | | 棕榈油 | | 面展望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。但美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑 | | ★ | 短线延续调整 | 美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制本月棕榈油表现。隔夜棕榈油下破 9200 元， | | | | ...

PVC周报： 上游开工下滑，低位反弹 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 时 间 2025/9/21 证监许可[2025]75号 上游开工下滑，低位反弹 【本周回顾】 本周PVC震荡上涨。周一高开在4883（较上周收盘涨12点或0.24%），小幅跌至日内低点4863 后强势上涨，周三早盘创月内新高4994后小幅回落，最终收在4950（较上周收盘跌11点或 0.22%）。全周在4863至4994间运行，振幅131点。 【下周展望】 基本面存改善预期，价格有望延续低位反弹。一方面，近期电石价格表现坚挺，成本支撑好 转，根据检修计划，10月新增检修计划增多，供给压力有望缓解。另一方面。尽管出口受政 策扰动，但是增速依旧强进劲，8月出口量为28.4万吨，1-8月出口累计同比增速达55%。目前 产业链 库存结构表现分化，国庆假期临近，上游企业加大预售量，厂内库存压力处于同期中 性水平，现货价格表现坚挺。随着基差走强，产业无风险套利空间 消 失，仓单高位去化，产 业套保压力减少。 【策略】 1）单边：绝对价格低估值，回调试多。V2 ...

农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 20250920棉系周报： 新棉逐步上量施压盘面 警惕阶段性抢收反弹 | | | | | | 棉花供需平衡表(9月) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目名称 | | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 环比变化 | 同比变化 | | | 中国 | 581.3 | | 595.5 | 696.6 | (8月) 685.8 | (9月) | 21.8 | 10.9 | | | | | 669.5 | | | | 707.5 | | | | | 印度 | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 522.5 | 511.6 | 522.5 | 10.9 | 0.0 | | | 巴西 | 235.6 | 255.2 | 317.2 | 370.1 | 397.3 | 397.3 | 0.0 | 27.2 | | | 美国 | ...

中辉期货铁合金周报 上行驱动有限，谨慎追多 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/09/19 硅锰观点摘要 【供需分析】：供给端，周度产量环比下降约0.54万吨，开工率环比下降1.7%。目前北方地区小幅减产，南 方开工率小幅增加，云南地区开工率继续增至96.43%，日均产量处近五年同期最高水平。需求端，铁水产量 维持在240万吨以上运行，螺纹钢产量环比下降。目前新一轮钢招已进入尾声，标志性钢厂招标最终定价6000 元/吨，关注其他地区钢厂定价情况。 【库存情况】：企业库存合计19.89万吨，周环比增加3.21万吨；截至9月18日，硅锰仓单数量合计6.09万张， 较上周五减少0.04万张；有效预报合计2994张，维持不变。目前交割库存（含预报）合计31.99万吨，下降幅 度放缓。 【成本利润】：锰矿方面，本周港口锰矿价格持稳运行，部分矿品小幅上涨。供应端，本期三大国发运量合 计87.45万吨，环比减少7.48万吨。到货量合计66万吨，环比增加30.05万吨，增量主要来自南非和澳大利亚， 加蓬矿本周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but Powell's hawkish stance led to a rebound in the US dollar index. The market traded on the "buy the fact, sell the expectation" principle, causing copper prices to correct from their highs and give back gains. In the short term, copper prices found support at the 30 - day moving average and rebounded. With the upcoming National Day holiday, risk - aversion sentiment may intensify. It is recommended to take profits on long copper positions and either go empty or hold light positions during the holiday. Enterprises are advised to consider selling hedges at high prices to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, combined with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economy - **Fed Interest Rate Decision**: On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut since December 2024, signaling the start of an interest - rate cut cycle. It was a "risk - management" move to balance inflation and employment risks. It is expected that there may be two more rate cuts this year, and the median interest rate may drop to 3.6% by the end of 2025. However, due to factors such as long - term tariff impacts and an unimproved job market, the US economy may face higher downside risks in 2026, and the actual number of rate cuts may be more. Powell's remarks dampened the market's pricing for a 50bp recession - style rate cut and a significant decline in the terminal interest rate. The Fed's rate cut provides room for China's domestic monetary policy, but in the short term, the central bank may prioritize fiscal stimulus, and the probability of a rate cut is low. The US dollar index rebounded to 97.36, back above the 97 mark [11]. - **China's August Macroeconomic Data**: Social financing reached a peak and then declined, with weak credit. In August, the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, 465.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year, lower than the seasonal level. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%, the same as the previous month; M1 increased by 6.0% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month. The gap between M2 and M1 narrowed to 2.8%. The growth rate of industrial added value, consumption, and investment all slowed down, and PPI rebounded. The growth momentum needs to be strengthened [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: In August 2024, China imported 257.4 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a month - on - month increase of 18.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. From January to August, the cumulative import of copper concentrates was 1.8635 billion tons, a 3.2% increase from the same period last year. As of September 12, the port inventory was only 692,700 tons, 26.2% less than the average of the past three years. As of June 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.916 million tons, a decrease of 81,000 tons or 4.06% from May. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79%, a 0.9% decrease from May. As of September 18, the SMM imported copper concentrate index was - 41.3 dollars/ton, and the copper concentrate TC was - 41.4 dollars/ton, still at a historically low level, with the smelting processing fee deeply inverted [36]. - **Scrap Copper**: As of September 19, the scrap - refined copper price spread was 1,752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 193 yuan/ton from last Friday, with relatively small fluctuations. In July 2025, China's imports of copper waste and scrap reached 190,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.3355 million tons, a 0.77% year - on - year decrease. In July, the output of blister copper was 1.0413 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.64%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 6.9267 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.58%. In July, China imported 84,200 tons of anode copper, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. From January to July, the cumulative import was 467,000 tons, a 12.72% year - on - year decrease. The domestic blister copper processing fee remained at 700 yuan/ton, and the CIF imported blister copper processing fee was 85 dollars/ton, at a historically low level [40]. - **Refined Copper**: In August, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China decreased by 28,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. From January to August, the cumulative output increased by 978,800 tons year - on - year, an increase of 12.30%. In August, the copper smelting start - up rate was 87.97%, a 0.21% month - on - month decrease. In September, five smelters plan to conduct maintenance, involving a production capacity of 1 million tons. It is expected that the output of electrolytic copper will continue to decline in September. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that from January to June 2025, the global copper market had a total supply surplus of 251,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [45]. - **Demand Side** - **Mid - and Downstream Industries**: In August, the output of copper products was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. From January to August, the cumulative output of copper products was 16.598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The start - up rates of mid - and downstream processing enterprises rebounded slightly in August. The latest weekly start - up rate of domestic electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 70.73%, a 3.2% month - on - month increase; the weekly start - up rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 23.33%, a 0.66% month - on - month increase; the weekly start - up rate of wire and cable enterprises was 65.84%, a 1.78% month - on - month decrease [52]. - **Terminal Demand**: From January to July, power grid project investment reached 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. Power source project investment reached 428.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 223.2GW. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the expected new installed capacity for this year to 270 - 300GW. In 2025 from January to August, the real estate market continued to bottom out. In August, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.8% year - on - year, accounting for 48.8% of total new vehicle sales. In September, the domestic sales production plan of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, and the online and offline sales of air conditioners and color TVs in the second week of September also declined year - on - year [59]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Short - Term Outlook**: With the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks, the US dollar index rebounded, and copper prices corrected from their highs. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk - aversion sentiment may intensify. It is recommended to take profits on long copper positions and either go empty or hold light positions during the holiday. Enterprises are advised to consider selling hedges at high prices to lock in reasonable profits [6][77]. - **Long - Term Outlook**: Copper is highly regarded in the long term as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, combined with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6][77].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel futures fluctuated upward with strong performance. In terms of supply and demand, hot metal production remained above 2.4 million tons, at a relatively high level. Rebar production decreased month - on - month, demand rebounded, and inventory started to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils were generally stable, with both production and demand at high levels. There were no significant contradictions in iron ore and coking coal on the raw material side. With high hot metal production, demand was guaranteed. Although coking coal production continued to recover month - on - month, it was still lower than the same period last year. Currently, the pressure on the black market is mainly reflected in rebar, but the inventory and warehouse receipt volume in Hangzhou decreased, and the spot pressure improved marginally. The overall macro - sentiment remained positive [2]. - The month - on - month rebound in demand and the decline in inventory are normal at this stage, and there is little possibility of continuous above - seasonal performance in the future. The current market rally is a rebound under the background of relatively balanced raw materials, the influence of "anti - involution" news, and strong macro - sentiment. In the short term, it may be supported by meetings and policies, but approaching the October delivery, the logic may have an adverse impact on the market, and it is difficult to have a trending market. It will mainly fluctuate within a range, showing a pattern of being strong first and then weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Monthly Steel Data (August 2025)**: Pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%; cumulative production was 579.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. Crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; cumulative production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. Steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%; cumulative production was 982.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. Steel imports were 0.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; cumulative imports were 3.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; cumulative exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [5]. - **Weekly Five - Major Steel Products Data (September 19, 2025)**: The total production of five - major steel products was 8.5546 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Total consumption was 8.5 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17%. Total inventory was 15.2 million tons, an increase of 51,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.95% [6]. Production - related - **Steel Production**: The report provides seasonal charts of monthly crude steel production and weekly five - major steel products production [8]. - **Blast Furnace Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly average hot metal production, steel profitability, blast furnace operation rate, and blast furnace capacity utilization rate in China are presented [10]. - **Building Materials Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly actual production of rebar and wire rod in China are provided [12]. - **Coil Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly actual production of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates in China are given [13]. - **Short - Process Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly actual short - process production of rebar and wire rod are provided [16]. - **Electric Furnace Profit**: Seasonal charts of building steel regional profits and rebar - steel price differentials are presented [18]. - **Steel Production Profit**: On September 19, 2025, the profit changes of rebar - blast furnace, rebar - electric furnace (valley - rate electricity), rebar - electric furnace (flat - rate electricity), and hot - rolled coil - blast furnace in different regions (East China, North China, and Central China) are provided [20]. Demand - related - **Steel Demand**: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of five - major steel products and the total trading volume of building steel in the mainstream market in China are presented [22]. - **Building Materials Consumption**: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of rebar and wire rod in China are provided [24]. - **Real Estate High - Frequency Data**: The cumulative year - on - year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 4.5%. The cumulative transaction area of 100 plots of land decreased by 10% year - on - year [27]. - **Cement and Concrete Demand**: Cement outbound volume improved marginally, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of 27%. Concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a cumulative year - on - year decline of 14% [30]. - **Coil Consumption**: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of medium - thick plates, cold - rolled coils, and hot - rolled coils in China are provided [31][32][34]. - **Steel Exports**: Steel exports in August decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level for the same period [37]. Inventory - related - **Steel Inventory**: Seasonal charts of weekly inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio of five - major steel products are presented [38]. - **Rebar Inventory**: Seasonal charts of rebar inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [40]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: Seasonal charts of hot - rolled coil inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio are given [42]. - **Other Steel Inventory**: Seasonal charts of weekly inventory of wire rod, medium - thick plate, and cold - rolled coil in China are provided [43][45]. Price - related - **Rebar Basis**: Rebar basis has been relatively stable recently. The basis for the October contract is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the basis for the January contract is at a neutral level. Currently, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar is the highest for the same period, strongly suppressing the October contract, and the near - month basis may remain relatively high [50]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Basis**: The basis of the October contract of hot - rolled coils remained stable with a slight decline this week, and the basis of the January contract was stable [59]. - **Rebar Month - Spread**: The rebar month - spread moved at a low level this week with limited fluctuations. A large number of rebar warehouse receipts continued to suppress the October contract [64]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread**: The 10 - 1 month - spread of hot - rolled coils has strengthened recently. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are relatively stable, with few warehouse receipts, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is at a neutral level [69]. - **Coil - Rebar Spread**: Seasonal charts of the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread are presented [70]. - **Spot Regional Spread**: Seasonal charts of rebar regional spreads (Shanghai, Guangzhou - Shanghai) and hot - rolled coil regional spreads (Shanghai, Guangzhou - Shanghai) are provided [73][74][75]. - **Spot Product Spread**: Seasonal charts of rebar - steel spreads (East China), cold - hot spreads (Shanghai), wire rod - rebar spreads (Shanghai), and medium - thick plate - hot - rolled coil spreads (Shanghai) are presented [78][79]. Others - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Warehouse Receipt Volume**: Seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil warehouse receipt volume are provided [80]. - **Position Volume**: Seasonal charts of position volume are presented [81].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] Core Views - Oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing, with oversupply remaining the core driver. Short - term geopolitical disturbances have less impact, and the downward pressure on oil prices is significant [1]. - Cost - side oil prices are weakening, downstream chemical开工率 is declining, and LPG is expected to remain bearish [1]. - Cost support is weak, previously shut - down devices are resuming operation, and the upward driving force for L is insufficient despite strong supply and demand [1]. - High maintenance cannot offset high expansion in the PP market, and the peak season is under - performing expectations. The spot market is weak, and the basis is at a low level [1]. - Cost support for PVC has improved, and exports remain strong. Although the fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, there is a rebound due to high - level decline in warehouse receipts [1]. - Supply - side and demand - side changes in PX lead to a looser expectation of tight balance, and it is oscillating weakly under macro - pressure [30]. - For PTA, the expected increase in device maintenance will ease supply - side pressure, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is under - performing, and the demand side is weak [34]. - Domestic ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have changed little, and the consumption season is under - performing, but low inventory provides some support [39]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure remains large, but the demand side has improved, and the cost support is stabilizing. There is limited downward space [42]. - Urea has strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, and the fundamentals remain weak [47]. - US natural gas inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, causing gas prices to weaken, but the need for winter gas storage provides some support [4]. - Cost - side oil prices are weakening, and asphalt supply and demand are generally loose, with high valuation [4]. - The glass market has a strong supply pressure, and the peak - season demand provides short - term support, but the medium - and long - term pattern is loose [4]. - The demand for soda ash has slightly improved, but the supply is expected to remain loose in the medium - and long - term [4]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.69%, Brent down 1.52%, and SC down 0.70% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. US crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, but there is a long - term oversupply risk [6]. As of September 12, US net imports decreased, exports increased, and commercial crude inventory decreased [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. SC focuses on the range of [480 - 490] [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PG main contract closed at 4368 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side oil supply exceeds demand, and downstream chemical profits have declined, with reduced开工率. Supply has increased, and inventory has risen [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4250 - 4350] [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support is weak, devices are resuming operation, and supply is increasing. The peak season for shed films has begun, and demand support is strengthening, but the upward driving force is insufficient [17]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to basis repair and wait for dips to go long. L focuses on the range of [7100 - 7200] [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6914 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side oil is weak, high expansion outweighs high maintenance, and the peak season is disappointing. The basis is at a low level, and downstream demand is slowly increasing [22]. - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge on rallies. PP focuses on the range of [6850 - 7000] [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4950 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [25]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support has improved, exports are strong, and warehouse receipts have decreased. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and social inventory has increased for 13 consecutive weeks [27]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips due to low valuation. V focuses on the range of [4900 - 5050] [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 19, PX spot price was 6773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan. The main contract's trading volume and open interest increased [30]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side devices have slightly increased their load, and demand - side PTA may have more maintenance in the future. Inventory is high, and PXN is relatively high this year. Macro - factors put pressure on prices [30]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and sell call options. PX511 focuses on the range of [6525 - 6630] [31]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 19, PTA in East China was 4555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4604 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [33]. - **Fundamentals**: Device maintenance is expected to increase, easing supply - side pressure. The "Golden September and Silver October" season is under - performing, and demand is weak. Inventory is decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees [2]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4317 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [38]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have changed little, and the consumption season is under - performing. Low inventory provides some support [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to short on rallies. EG01 focuses on the range of [4230 - 4270] [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [41]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and overseas device load has slightly decreased. Demand has improved, and inventory accumulation has slowed down. Cost support is stabilizing [42]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. MA01 focuses on the range of [2340 - 2380] [44]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton. The main contract closed at 1661 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [46]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is expected to weaken [47]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and sell call options. Focus on the range of [1645 - 1665] [49]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: As of the week ending September 12, US natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2433 billion cubic feet [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, causing gas prices to weaken, but the need for winter gas storage provides some support [4]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side oil prices are weakening, and asphalt supply and demand are generally loose, with high valuation [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is strong, and the peak - season demand provides short - term support, but the medium - and long - term pattern is loose [4]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long, medium - and long - term short on rallies [4]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Fundamentals**: Demand has slightly improved, but the supply is expected to remain loose in the medium - and long - term [4]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long, medium - and long - term short on rallies [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of both supply and demand booming, with support for lithium prices. The total inventory has been decreasing for six consecutive weeks, and the inventory of upstream smelters is significantly lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, the issue of mining licenses in Jiangxi may attract the attention of funds again. Lithium carbonate should be treated with a low - buy strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - In August, China's economic data showed characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing has increased. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and an increase in inflation, and is expected to cut interest rates twice this year and once next year. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, while the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening [3]. Supply Side - This week, the production of lithium carbonate continued to increase, with the weekly production maintaining above 20,000 tons and reaching a new high this year. The production of all raw materials increased slightly. As of September 19, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,125 tons, a week - on - week increase of 125 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 48.93%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29% [3][10]. - As of September 19, the production of lithium hydroxide was 5,360 tons, a week - on - week increase of 125 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 36.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86%. This week, the production of lithium hydroxide was still restricted by the high price of externally purchased raw materials and the maintenance of some production lines, with limited production release [12]. - As of September 19, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 78,226 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 81 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 68.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06%. The "Special Action Plan for the Large - scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025 - 2027)" has driven the significant growth of orders from mainstream battery enterprises recently, which has led to the demand for shipments from lithium iron phosphate manufacturers [14]. Demand Side - From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China were 438,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 6% compared with the same period in September last year and a 10% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate was 59.8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.008 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles from manufacturers was 447,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10% compared with the same period in September last year and a 21% increase compared with the same period last month, and the wholesale penetration rate was 57.7% [3]. Cost Profit - This week, the price of the mining end increased month - on - month. The quotation of African SC 5% was 610 US dollars per ton, unchanged from last week; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 830 US dollars per ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 US dollars per ton; the market price of lithium mica was 2,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 19, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 68,169 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,802 yuan, and the industry profit was 5,213 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,595 yuan [4][46]. - As of September 19, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 68,462 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 52 yuan, and the industry profit was 6,571 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan [51]. - As of September 19, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 34,583 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 220 yuan per ton, and the loss was 735 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 207 yuan per ton [53]. Total Inventory - As of September 18, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 137,531 tons, a decrease of 981 tons from last week. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 34,456 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,757 tons. The total inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, the inventory of smelters decreased rapidly, the downstream production schedule was good, maintaining the restocking rhythm, traders actively shipped, the inventory decreased, and the restocking sentiment was strong [5][32]. - As of September 19, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 50,450 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week. This week, the finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly. The industry is in a situation of both supply and demand booming, and the supply of the lithium iron phosphate industry in September increased by more than 5% month - on - month [35]. Market Price - As of September 19, LC2511 closed at 73,960 yuan per ton, a 3.9% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan per ton, a 2.82% increase from last week, with a basis discount, and the position of the main contract was 280,000 [8]. - The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 3.75% week - on - week, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.82% week - on - week, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.88% week - on - week [6].