中辉期货铁合金周报 市场情绪尚有余温，短空参与 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/08/15 硅锰观点摘要 【供需分析】：供给端，全国产量已连续十三周回升，目前北方产区开工稳定，南方广西、贵州小幅复产， 云南地区开工率增至88.21%，日均产量处近五年最高水平。需求端，本周247家铁水日均产量240.66万吨， 周环比增0.34万吨，螺纹钢产量微降、而表需明显回落。目前新一轮需求集中释放，标志性钢厂8月硅锰招标 最终定价6200元/吨承兑含税到厂，较7月上涨350元/吨，华东地区部分钢厂价格敲定在6120-6180元/吨。短 期需求韧性仍存。 3 现货市场：北方产区现货价格暂稳，南方价格小幅上涨 来源:中辉期货有限公司 【库存情况】：企业库存合计15.88万吨，周环比下降0.27万吨；仓单数量合计74797张，较上周五减少1248 张；交割库存（含预报）继续下降至38.22万吨，下降幅度放缓。 【成本利润】：锰矿方面，本周港口锰矿价格偏稳运行。供应端，本期发运量继续下降，到货和疏港量较上 期 ...

沪铜周报 宏微有望共振，铜重心上移 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-08-15 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 0 1 观点摘要 0 2 宏观经济 0 3 供需分析 0 4 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 观点摘要 01 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】宏观情绪回暖，市场风险偏好走高，宏微有望共振，铜震荡回升，重心上移，回调 试多为主 【策略展望】 整体而言，中美关税继续延期90天，虽然美国PPI超预期削弱美联储降息力度，但美联储9月降息 路径几乎确定，国内短期A股慢牛和商品反内卷躁动，市场风险偏好提高，整体宏观情绪向好。 铜作为贵金属的资产配置平替，兼具全工业属性和强金融属性。海外铜矿扰动和国内精炼铜高产 量并存，金九银十旺季预期逐渐发酵，国内社会库存偏紧，基本面对铜下方有支撑。 随着淡旺季切换和9月关键降息月来临，宏微有望共振，建议铜回调逢低试多为主，企业卖出套 保等待逢高布局时机，锁定合理利润。但也要警惕美联储降息预期落空和旺季需求证伪带来的铜 高位回落风险。中长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿紧 ...

碳酸锂周报： 总库存结构持续改善，碳酸锂高位运行 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.8.15 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国7月新增社融1.16万亿元，人民币贷款减少500亿元，新增人民币存款5000亿元，住户存款减少1.11万亿元。 M2-M1剪刀差为3.2个百分点，较上月缩小了0.5个百分点。国内对于单笔5万元以上的消费，以5万元消费额度为上限进行贴息。 服务业经营主体贷款可享1%贴息，贴息贷款规模最高达100万元。美国7月CPI同比上涨2.7%低于预期，市场情绪转向高度乐观， 关税忧虑淡化。美俄领导人本周五在阿拉斯加会晤，讨论俄乌停火问题。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量环比小幅下滑，但仍处于2万吨以上。代加工企业产能利用率提升，新投产线持续爬坡，回收类企业 有开工计划。关注产量下滑的持续性。 【需求端】乘联分会数据显示，8月1-10日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售26.2万辆，同比去年8月同期增长6%，较上月同期增长6%， 全国新能源市场零售渗透率57.9%，今年以来累计零售671.7万辆，同比增长28%；全国乘用车厂商新能源批发22.9万辆，同比去 年8月同期增长1 ...

中辉期货钢材周报 "反内卷"有所降温 中期关注产业逻辑 分析师：陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期：2025/8/15 观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色先涨后跌，焦煤在到达前高后快速回落，带动黑色板块下行。交易所对焦煤01合约 设置交易限额，并提高日内投机手续费，为市场降温意图明显。钢材供需方面，钢厂利润仍然较佳，生产积极 性较高，铁水产量继续维持在240万吨以上，但后期存在阅兵限产影响，唐山独立轧钢厂自8月20日起或因环 保停产。另外高炉也存在限产减产可能，后期产量存在收缩预期。需求端淡季特征比较明显，五大材表需环比 进一步回落，建筑钢材回落幅度较大。库存整体上升，尤其建筑钢材增加较多。 【策略建议】：从近期官方表态及监管措施来看，有为"反内卷"氛围下原料涨价降温的态势。目前黑色系的焦 点在焦煤，其供需矛盾并不像价格表现的那般剧烈。焦煤产量缓慢回升，蒙煤通关量也在增加，供应端边际改 善。需求端铁水产量较稳定，而前期钢厂和焦企补库后，近期采购节奏有所放缓，矿山焦煤库存转 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 目前高炉利润仍然较好，电炉利润较前期亦有好转，钢厂生产积极性较高，铁水产量高 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 位运行。需求端总体仍然较弱，建筑钢材成交低位徘徊。但阅兵期间限产政策尚未完全 | | ★ | | 落地，继续支撑市场对供应端收缩的预期，同时原料端也带来扰动，中期料区间波动， | | | | 目前处于偏中性位置，短期行情易反复。 | | | | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。热卷出口利润回落明显，后期 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 出口或受一定影响。宏观强预期对下方形成支撑，阅兵期间限产预期对行情形成支撑。 | | ★ | | 当前位置偏中性，短期行情或有反复。 | | 铁矿石 | 短多参与 | 基本面看，铁水产量微增。外矿发到货双降，港口、钢厂库存同增，钢厂补库带动阶段 | | ★ | | 性价格坚挺。基本面主导下，矿价偏强。 | | | | 焦炭现货已有六轮提涨，焦企利润继续改善。部分地区公布阅兵期间限产政策，后期供 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 应端或有一定收缩。当前焦炭供需总 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 原油 ★ 谨慎看空 供给过剩压力不断上升，油价趋势详细，关注周五美俄会谈。油价进入旺 季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 压力较大，但下降空间在逐渐缩小。供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页 岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点；地缘端重点关注本周五美俄会谈。策略：买入看 跌期权 LPG ★ 多单持有 基差维持高位，下游 PDH 需求改善，液化气短线反弹。成本端油价偏弱 震荡，但短期下方支撑上升；基差处于高位，估值中性偏低；下游化工需 求尚可，PDH 开工率升至 70% 以上；供给库存双降，基本面改善。策略： 前期多单继续持有 L ★ 空头盘整 主力换月，现货持稳，基差继续走强。基本面供需双强，近期多数装置陆 续重启，LL 进口毛利提升，本周产量继续增加。下周装置检修增加，农膜 旺季即将开始，关注补库节奏，基本面存改善预期。策略：关注旺季启动 节奏及俄乌会晤结果，回调试多 PP ★ 空头盘整 现货继续小幅下跌，09 基差走强。上游维持高检修，出口毛利维持负值， 下游需求恢复缓慢，开工率连续 2 周上涨，关注后市旺季补库节奏。基本 面进一步利空有限，技术面底部有支撑。 ...

豆粕：美豆面积环比大幅调减 期价上涨 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 3157 | 3163 | -6 | -0. 19% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3118. 29 | 3121. 14 | -2. 85 | -0. 09% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2950 | 2940 | 10 | 0. 34% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 間趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3287.5 | 3287. 5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2328. 75 | 2335 | -6. 25 | -0. 27% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3750 | 3750 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1383. 3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the US PPI exceeding expectations has dampened interest - rate cut expectations, causing short - term declines in precious metals and base metals. However, in the long run, factors such as global monetary policy easing, central bank gold purchases, and supply - demand dynamics support the upward trend of some metals. For example, gold and silver are expected to rise in the long term, while zinc is expected to decline due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [1][3]. - For industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, although there are some short - term negative factors, long - term fundamentals still support a bullish view. For lithium carbonate, short - term factors such as fundamentals, funds, and sentiment support its rise [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Inflation exceeding expectations again dampened interest - rate cut expectations, and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue, gold and silver prices declined [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The US July PPI was far above expectations, with the year - on - year increase in July rising from 2.3% to 3.3%, the highest since February. The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770 in the short term, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. The short - term trading range for silver is 9150 - 9400, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper prices declined under pressure, breaking through the 79,000 - yuan mark [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and although refined copper production is at a high level, it may decline marginally. Currently in the consumption off - season, demand will gradually pick up with the approaching peak season. Overseas copper inventories are slightly increasing, while domestic social inventories are relatively tight, and the copper market is in a tight balance throughout the year [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The US July PPI exceeded expectations, weakening interest - rate cut expectations. With overseas inventory accumulation in the off - season and relatively tight domestic social inventories, copper prices are expected to have limited downward adjustment. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions at high prices. In the long term, copper prices are expected to rise [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc prices were in a narrow - range consolidation, with long and short forces in a stalemate [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and domestic refined zinc production is increasing. In the demand side, affected by tariffs and the off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. Domestic inventories are increasing, while overseas LME zinc inventories are decreasing, with a risk of soft squeeze [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for more macro - level guidance. In the long term, short - selling opportunities can be considered when prices are high [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure in rebounding, and alumina prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, inventories are rising, and the downstream industry is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with a loose supply - demand situation in the short term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short - selling opportunities during rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices declined under pressure, and stainless steel prices were also under pressure [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing slightly. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and inventory pressure may reappear [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short - selling opportunities during rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 first rose and then fell, and finally closed slightly higher [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: Although domestic weekly production has reached a new high, inventory has only increased slightly, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. Supply - side rumors of production halts may lead to a short - term supply - demand mismatch [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the continued speculation of supply - side production halts, long positions can be held in the range of 84,000 - 86,500 [22].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 ★ 谨慎看空 供给压力不断上升，油价中枢继续下移，关注周五美俄会谈。油价进入旺 季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 压力较大，但下降空间在逐渐缩小。供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页 岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点；地缘端重点关注本周五美俄会谈。策略：买入看 跌期权。SC【475-495】 LPG ★ 谨慎看多 高基差估值偏低，持仓升至近期高位，反弹动力上升。成本端油价偏弱， 但短期下方支撑上升；基差处于高位，估值中性偏低；下游化工需求尚可， PDH 开工率 70%左右；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅上升，港口 库存上升。策略：轻仓试多。PG【3750-3850】 L ★ 空头盘整 成本端油价下跌，现货持稳，基差继续走强。基本面供需双强，近期多数 装置陆续重启，LL 进口毛利提升，预计本周产量继续增加。但农膜旺季即 将开始，开工率连续 3 周上行，关注补库节奏。绝对价格低估值，远月合 约具有抗跌性。策略：关注旺季启动节奏及美俄会谈结果，回调试多。L 【7200-7400】 PP ★ 空头盘整 成本支撑 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美俄乌会面在即，美国 9 月份降息概率几成定局，短期盘面止跌后盘整。中长期 G2 | | | 止跌做多 | 大国货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性低，资产配置需要。 | | ★ | | 长期黄金继续战略配置。谨防短期特朗普普京会面对盘面冲击【770-788】 | | 白银 | | 白银逻辑不变，流动性影响白银涨幅更多，中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松 | | ★★ | 反弹做多 | 财政刺激等支撑作用明显，工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。 | | | | 短期白银品种弹性较大，短期试多长期做多。【9150-9400】 | | | | 宏观利好兑现后，市场情绪降温，商品大面积飘绿，需求淡季海外铜库存累库，国 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 内铜社会库存相对偏紧，铜高位盘整，建议前期多单继续持有，部分可止盈兑现， | | ★★ | | | | | | 中长期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【78000，80000】 | | 锌 | | 伦锌仓单紧张，锌外强内弱，短期需 ...