| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 阿根廷产区预计将迎来有利降雨，可能缓解部分旱情。巴西大豆收割进度显著快于 | | 豆粕 | 短期震荡 | 去年同期，新作供应正逐步涌入市场。市场看多情绪有所回落。昨日豆粕小幅收跌。 | | ★ | | 当前看多谨慎对待，关注阿根廷后续降雨情况，以及美豆种植面积、美生柴政策落 | | | | 地内容。 | | | | 首批澳籽进入压榨，沿海油厂菜粕库存打破之前零状态，此外，加籽的持续采购， | | 菜粕 | 短期震荡 | 令国内菜籽及菜粕供应形势预期好转。消费淡季下，菜粕缺乏利多推动。昨日菜粕 | | ★ | | 窄幅整理。临近节日市场交投热情大幅下降。关注后续加籽采购进展情况，关注中 | | | | 加、美加贸易进展。 | | | | 最新数据显示马棕榈油 1 月超预期去库，但同时，马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec | | | | 公布最新本月前 10 日出口数据显示环比下降，挫伤市场看多人气。马棕榈油收跌。 | | 棕榈油 | 短线整理 | 国内方面，2 月买船较多，盘面产业套保压力环比增加。昨日棕榈油收跌。由于 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | 美国数据走跌，美联储官员强调联储独立性，盘面继续调整。中长期地缘秩序重塑， | | | 企稳多配 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金（中国央行连续 15 个月购金），长期战略配置 | | ★ | 价值不变。关注调整幅度 | | | 小作文较多，白银多空拥挤交易博弈或没有结束。尽管长期理由仍然存在供需缺口 | | 白银 | 等待降波 连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注， | | ★ | 短期参与难度大，风险报酬比不合适。 | | | 美国非农数据本周五公布，恰逢国内无夜盘，宏观风险较大，建议多单止盈落袋， | | 铜 | 长线持有 持币空仓过节。中长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置， | | ★ | 对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | 锌投机热度降温，随着春节长假临近，需求疲软，锌锭库存累库，建议准备持币空 | | ★ | 承压 仓过节，规避风险。 | | 铅 | 国内再生铅冶炼企业减产增多，供应速度放缓，但终端消费市场未见好转，现货 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - Bullish: Methanol, Urea [3][37] - Bearish: LPG, L, PP, PVC, MEG, Asphalt, Glass, Soda Ash [1][15][19] - Neutral: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, PTA [1][6][26] 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East lead to short - term volatile and slightly stronger prices. However, the supply - surplus pattern remains, and with the arrival of the demand off - season, there is still downward pressure on oil prices [1][8]. - **LPG**: The cost - end oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances in the short term, but the geopolitical premium is decreasing. The supply of liquefied gas is decreasing, and the chemical demand support is weakening. The inventory shows some positive factors [1]. - **L**: The basis weakens, and the market is in a bearish consolidation. Linear production is at a high level, and the supply is expected to continue to increase, with a bearish fundamental outlook [15][18]. - **PP**: The cost of propane and propylene fluctuates strongly. The supply - demand drive is insufficient before the festival. The current supply - demand is weak, and the PDH profit is low, providing cost support [19][22]. - **PVC**: The decline space of liquid caustic soda is limited. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is at a low level, providing bottom - cost support. Short - term export rush continues, but high inventory restricts the upward space, and the market is expected to fluctuate before the festival [23][25]. - **PTA**: The valuation is reasonable, and the processing fee has improved. The supply - side device maintenance is in line with the plan, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The 1 - 2 month inventory is slightly accumulated, but the overall expectation is positive [26][27]. - **MEG**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load increases, and the overseas device maintenance plan increases. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in 1 - 2 months. The short - term demand is under pressure, but the fundamentals are expected to improve in 3 - 4 months [29][30]. - **Methanol**: The domestic device starts to increase, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The demand shows signs of improvement, and the cost has support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [32][34]. - **Urea**: The overall start - up load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short term. However, as the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, the support is expected to weaken. The price is restricted by "export quota system" and "price stabilization policy" [37][38]. - **LNG**: The impact of the cold wave in the United States decreases, and the demand - side support gradually weakens, resulting in a weakening gas price trend [41][44]. - **Asphalt**: The cost - end oil price fluctuates disorderly. The asphalt valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty increases. Attention should be paid to the import situation of asphalt raw materials [46][50]. - **Glass**: The warehouse receipts increase, and the market is in a low - level consolidation. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulated. Supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [51][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The warehouse receipts continue to increase. The real - estate demand is weak, and the heavy - alkali demand support is insufficient. The supply is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [55][58]. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Crude Oil - **Price**: WTI主力 fell 0.62% to $63.96/barrel, Brent主力 fell 0.35% to $68.8/barrel, and SC主力 rose 1.39% to 472.5 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains the production policy, and the production in the Middle East and the United States shows different trends. Indian imports increase, and the US inventory shows different changes in different types of oil [9]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short term, it fluctuates and adjusts, and the SC price range is [465 - 485] [10]. LPG - **Price**: On February 10, the PG main contract closed at 4203 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11][12]. - **Fundamentals**: It is mainly affected by the cost - end oil price. The supply is stable, the downstream chemical demand weakens, and the inventory accumulates [13]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to move down. In the short term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamental outlook is bearish. The PG price range is [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Price**: L05 closed at 6775 yuan/ton, up 0.8% [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The basis weakens, and the linear production is at a high level. The supply is expected to increase, and the fundamental outlook is bearish [18]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in operation before the festival and pay attention to the verification after the festival. The L price range is [6650 - 6850] [18]. PP - **Price**: PP05 closed at 6678 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of propane and propylene fluctuates strongly. The supply - demand is weak, and the PDH profit is low, providing cost support [22]. - **Strategy**: Light - position and cautious operation before the festival. Pay attention to the future demand verification. The PP price range is [6600 - 6800] [22]. PVC - **Price**: V05 closed at 4971 yuan/ton, down 0.4% [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The decline space of liquid caustic soda is limited. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is at a low level, and the high inventory restricts the upward space. The market is expected to fluctuate before the festival [25]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation. The V price range is [4850 - 5050] [25]. PTA - **Price**: TA05 closed at 5166 yuan/ton, at the 85.7% quantile level in the past three months [27]. - **Fundamentals**: The valuation is reasonable, the supply - side device maintenance is in line with the plan, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The 1 - 2 month inventory is slightly accumulated [27]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental expectation is positive. Pay attention to buying on significant pullbacks. The TA05 price range is [5110 - 5220] [28]. MEG - **Price**: EG05 closed at 3959 yuan/ton [29]. - **Fundamentals**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load increases, and the overseas device maintenance plan increases. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in 1 - 2 months [30]. - **Strategy**: Layout long positions on dips in the near - term. The EG05 price range is [3680 - 3780] [31]. Methanol - **Price**: The main contract is at a high valuation level in the past three months [34]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic device starts to increase, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The demand shows signs of improvement, and the cost has support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [34]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions. The MA05 price range is [2219 - 2369] [36]. Urea - **Price**: The main contract closed at 1776 yuan/ton, at the 77.8% quantile level in the past year [39]. - **Fundamentals**: The overall start - up load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short term. However, as the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, the support is expected to weaken. The price is restricted by "export quota system" and "price stabilization policy" [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in chasing up. The UR05 price range is [1760 - 1790] [40]. LNG - **Price**: On February 9, the NG main contract closed at $3.140/million British thermal units, down 7.78% [43]. - **Fundamentals**: The impact of the cold wave in the United States decreases, and the demand - side support gradually weakens, resulting in a weakening gas price trend [44]. - **Strategy**: The demand supports the gas price in the consumption peak season, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. The NG price range is [2.900 - 3.400] [45]. Asphalt - **Price**: On February 10, the BU main contract closed at 3343 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price fluctuates disorderly. The asphalt valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty increases. Attention should be paid to the import situation of asphalt raw materials [49][50]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and prevent risks. The BU price range is [3300 - 3400] [50]. Glass - **Price**: FG05 closed at 1070 yuan/ton, down 0.7% [52]. - **Fundamentals**: The warehouse receipts increase, and the market is in a low - level consolidation. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulated. Supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [54]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in chasing up before the cold - repair is further implemented. The FG price range is [1040 - 1090] [54]. Soda Ash - **Price**: SA05 closed at 1171 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [56]. - **Fundamentals**: The warehouse receipts continue to increase. The real - estate demand is weak, and the heavy - alkali demand support is insufficient. The supply is under pressure [58]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies before the maintenance is further intensified. The SA price range is [1150 - 1200] [58].

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘反反复复，油价短期震荡偏强。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，夜盘消息 | | 原油 | | 称美国海事局建议美国船只尽可能远离伊朗，油价波动加剧，短期防风险 | | ★ | 震荡调整 | 为主；核心驱动：供给过剩格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行 | | | | 压力；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 成本支撑减弱叠加化工需求减弱，液化气走弱。成本端油价短期受地缘扰 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 动震荡盘整，但地缘溢价下降，后续支撑下降；供需方面，液化气商品量 | | ★ | | 出现下降，PDH 开工率连续下降，降至 70%以下，化工需求支撑降低； | | | | 库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | 空头延续 | 上游库存降至同期低位，节前基本面需求真空期，谨慎操作，关注节后验 证情况。成本端乙烷下跌，线性产量维持同期高位，本周中英石化等装置 | | ★ | | 计划重启，预计供给延续增加趋势，基本面偏空。 | | | | 丙烷涨价，PDH 成本支 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比下降，春节临近，现货成交持续萎缩。螺纹利润尚可，产量在利润支撑下 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 回升，库存累积。铁水产量变化不大，供需总体符合季节性规律。钢材供需层面矛盾有 | | | | 限，中期维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有上升，绝对水平偏高。钢厂利润总体一般，节前生 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 产相对平稳。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制， | | | | 中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 钢厂进口矿库存水平明显上升，补库进入尾声，铁水环比小幅回升，外矿发货明显减少， | | ★ | | 铁矿基本面偏强，价格或坚挺。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，二轮提涨有难度。近期焦企利润明显改善，受生产惯性短期焦企生 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 产积极性尚可，供应量环比略增。从需求来看，铁水产量变化不大，下游维持按需采购。 | | | | 预计短期维持区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 本周国内煤矿陆续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish (★) [1] - Silver: Neutral (No recommendation) [1] - Copper: Bullish (★) [1] - Zinc: Bearish (★) [1] - Lead: Bearish (★) [1] - Tin: Bullish (★) [1] - Aluminum: Bearish (★) [1] - Nickel: Bearish (★) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral (Wide - range fluctuations) [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish (★) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish (★) [1] 2. Core Views - Gold is recommended for long - term strategic allocation due to factors such as lower US employment and inflation expectations, a weakened US dollar index, and continuous gold purchases by central banks. However, short - term fluctuations need attention [1][3]. - Silver is not recommended for participation in the short term because of crowded trading and short - term market adjustments, although there is a long - term supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is recommended for long - term holding. In the short term, with the approaching Spring Festival, investors are advised to take profits and hold cash due to high inventory and weak demand [1][7]. - Zinc is under pressure in the short term. With the approaching Spring Festival, demand weakens and inventory accumulates. It is advisable to reduce positions and wait for more macro - level guidance [1][11]. - Lead is under pressure as both supply and demand decline in the spot market, leading to inventory accumulation [1]. - Tin shows a short - term rebound under pressure, with a supply - demand balance of both supply and demand [1]. - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to low - cost alumina, inventory accumulation, and weak downstream demand [1][14]. - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of the digestion of supply contraction expectations, high inventory, and weak consumption [1][17]. - Industrial silicon shows wide - range fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the market trading is light, and it is recommended to hold no positions during the festival [1]. - Polysilicon is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. - Lithium carbonate shows a rebound. With inventory reduction and production decline, it maintains a stable and oscillating rhythm [1][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - Core view: Stable and recommended for long - term strategic allocation [1]. - Main logic: Lower US employment and inflation expectations, a weakened US dollar index, continuous purchase of gold by central banks (China's central bank has been buying for 15 consecutive months), and long - term uncertainties in the geopolitical situation [1][3]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the support level around 1060, and continue to focus on volatility reduction [4]. Silver - Core view: Not recommended for participation [1]. - Main logic: Crowded multi - and short - position trading, short - term market adjustments, although there has been a supply - demand gap for 5 consecutive years, the short - term risk - reward ratio is not suitable [1]. Copper - Core view: Long - term holding [1]. - Main logic: The weakening of the US dollar index, high - level copper inventories globally, and weak demand in the traditional off - season as the Spring Festival approaches [1][6][7]. - Strategy: In the short term, take profits and hold cash during the Spring Festival. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [100000, 105000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [12800, 13500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Core view: Under pressure [1]. - Main logic: Cooling speculative enthusiasm, weakening demand as the Spring Festival approaches, and inventory accumulation [1][10][11]. - Strategy: In the short term, reduce positions and control risks, and wait for more macro - level guidance. In the long term, consider buying on dips. The range for Shanghai zinc is [24000, 25000] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - Core view: Rebound under pressure [1]. - Main logic: Low - cost alumina, inventory accumulation, and a decline in downstream operating rates [1][12][14]. - Strategy: In the short term, take profits and wait and see, and pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [22000 - 24500] [14]. Nickel - Core view: Rebound under pressure [1]. - Main logic: The digestion of supply contraction expectations in Indonesia, high domestic inventory, and weak consumption, as well as an increase in downstream stainless steel inventory [1][15][17]. - Strategy: Take profits and wait and see, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range is [120000 - 145000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Rebound [1]. - Main logic: Four - week consecutive inventory reduction, production decline, and following the trend of the non - ferrous metals sector [1][19][20]. - Strategy: After stabilization, lightly build long positions in the range of [135000 - 145000] [21].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 阿根廷产区预计将迎来有利降雨，可能缓解部分旱情。巴西大豆收割进度显著快于 | | | | 去年同期，新作供应正逐步涌入市场。周五美豆冲高回落。国内市场，若真的新增 | | 豆粕 | | 美豆采购订单，将继续通过拍卖来投入市场，但面对更具性价比的南美大豆集中到 | | | 短期震荡 | | | ★ | | 港，若想有效投放储备，低价拍卖无疑是最有效的方法。国内大豆供应充足的预期 | | | | 下，豆粕期现价格承压。昨日豆粕回落。关注阿根廷大豆 2 月降雨情况。若降雨恢 | | | | 复，则豆粕看多需谨慎，暂观望为宜。 | | | | 首批澳籽进入压榨，沿海油厂菜粕库存打破之前零状态，此外，加籽的持续采购， | | 菜粕 | 短期震荡 | 令国内菜籽及菜粕供应形势预期好转。消费淡季下，菜粕缺乏利多推动。昨日菜粕 | | ★ | | 跟随豆粕收跌。关注后续加籽采购进展情况，关注中加、美加贸易进展。 | | | 2 | 月前 5 日马棕榈油产量环比增加，偏利空。国内方面，2 月天量的棕榈油进口数量， | | 棕榈油 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, news of Indonesian coal exports disturbed the market, but the impact was short - lived, causing the prices of coking coal and coke to rise and then fall. With domestic coal mines starting to shut down for the holiday, daily production has significantly declined. Coal mine clean coal inventories are being depleted, and downstream enterprises are restocking as needed [4]. - Indonesia has denied the market's rumor of production cuts. In the short term, about 6.16 million tons of monthly imported Indonesian coal are affected, accounting for 15.1% of China's monthly imports, but the actual impact is limited. In the long term, if Indonesia cuts production, China can make up for the gap by increasing domestic production and imports from Russia and Mongolia, but the cost - effectiveness of Indonesian coal is hard to replace. Future attention should be paid to the RKAB approval results [5]. - With only one week left until the Lunar New Year, downstream pre - holiday restocking is almost over. As the impact of the news weakens, the futures market has been reducing positions and declining since Thursday. With relatively limited supply - demand contradictions, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next week, and a cautious bearish attitude is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Coking Coal Market 3.1.1. Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost | Variety | Location | Date | Spot Price | Warehouse Receipt Cost | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Meng 5 | Tangshan | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1430 | 1203 | | Meng 5 | Inner Mongolia | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1230 | 1225 | | Anze Main Coking Coal | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1570 | 1310 | | Gujiao Main Coking Coal | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1491 | 1231 | | Pingmei No.1 | Pingdingshan | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1630 | 1145 | | Shan Jiao Rizhao No.1 | Rizhao | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1600 | 1150 | | Xiang Jiao No.1 | Linfen | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1400 | 1120 | | Kaijia No.1 | Jiexiu | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1500 | 1200 | [10] 3.1.2. Basis | Contract | Basis | Weekly Change | Basis Rate | One - Month Average | Seasonal Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | - 72 | 2 | - 5.85% | - 99 | - 162 | | May | 170 | - 11 | 13.82% | 145 | - 23 | | September | 94 | - 9 | 7.64% | 67 | - 60 | [12] 3.1.3. Coking Coal Supply - **Mines**: The average daily output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 1.9253 million tons, a decrease of 52,900 tons compared to the previous week; the average daily output of clean coal was 754,500 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared to the previous week [19]. - **Coal Washeries**: The average daily output of sample coal washeries was 263,100 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 35.54%, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the previous week [22]. 3.1.4. Coking Coal Imports - In 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. In December 2025, imports from Mongolia increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 59.1% year - on - year [23][26]. | Country | As of 2025 - 12 - 31 | Cumulative Value | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mongolia | 672 | 6007 | 7.6% | 59.1% | 5.8% | | Russia | 360 | 3276 | 31.3% | 55.0% | 8.4% | | Canada | 110 | 1080 | 109.9% | 8.4% | 19.8% | | Australia | 178 | 886 | 109.3% | 10.5% | - 14.0% | | Other Countries | 57 | 613 | 54.3% | - 62.8% | - 60.6% | | Total | 1377 | 11863 | 28.3% | 28.6% | - 2.7% | [25] 3.1.5. Coking Coal Auction Data | Coking Coal Auction Data | 2026 - 01 - 30 | 2026 - 01 - 23 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Listing Volume (10,000 tons) | 154.43 | 137.735 | 16.70 | | Transaction Rate (%) | 70.22 | 88.02 | - 17.8 | | Unsold Rate (%) | 29.78 | 11.98 | 17.8 | [29] 3.2. Coke Market 3.2.1. Coke Warehouse Receipt Cost | Variety | Location | Date | Spot Price | Warehouse Receipt Cost | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Wet - Quenched Coke | Shandong | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1480 | 1736 | | Rizhao Port Dry - Quenched Coke | Shandong | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1680 | 1725 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Pengfei Group) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1530 | 1700 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Hengfeng Group) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1570 | 1740 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Shanxi Jinhui) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1570 | 1690 | | Jinzhong Wet - Quenched (Zhongjin Taihang) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1310 | 1697 | | Jinzhong Wet - Quenched (Jiexiu Changsheng) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1330 | 1719 | | Handan Dry - Quenched (Xinsheng Coal Chemical) | Hebei | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1550 | 1650 | [39] 3.2.2. Coking Profit | Region | 2026 - 01 - 29 | 2026 - 01 - 22 | Weekly Change | Same - Period Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | National | - 55 | - 66 | 11 | - 28 | | Shanxi | - 41 | - 51 | 10 | - 41 | | Hebei | 0 | - 11 | 11 | - 11 | | Inner Mongolia | - 92 | - 103 | 11 | 4 | | Shandong | 2 | - 8 | 10 | - 1 | [41] 3.2.3. Basis | Contract | Basis | Weekly Change | Basis Rate | One - Month Average | Seasonal Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | - 262 | - 1 | - 17.68% | - 258 | - 174 | | May | - 69 | 39 | - 4.63% | - 56 | - 129 | | September | - 135 | 41 | - 9.09% | - 122 | - 164 | [44] 3.2.4. Coke Inventory Distribution | Coke Inventory Distribution | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 2026 - 01 - 30 | Weekly MoM | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel Mills | 6923,800 tons | 6781,900 tons | 141,900 tons | 0.21% | | Steel Mill Inventory Usable Days | 12.76 days | 12.54 days | 0.22 days | - 3.8% | | Independent Coking Enterprises | 827,400 tons | 843,900 tons | - 16,500 tons | - 47.18% | | Ports | 2.011 million tons | 1.98065 million tons | 30,350 tons | 13.49% | | Tianjin Port | 820,000 tons | 770,000 tons | 50,000 tons | 39.0% | | Qingdao Port | 740,000 tons | 780,000 tons | - 40,000 tons | 4.23% | | Rizhao | 450,000 tons | 430,000 tons | 20,000 tons | - 4.26% | | Total | 9.7622 million tons | 9.60645 million tons | 155,750 tons | - 4.74% | [56]

中辉期货钢材周报 利多驱动有限，节前偏弱运行 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期：2026/2/6 分析师：陈为昌 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 中辉黑色研究团队 观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色整体走弱，从幅度看，铁矿石跌幅最大。从驱动因素看，宏观利多仍然缺乏，而贵金 属、有色等板块的剧烈回调令市场情绪有所降温。供需方面，从农历角度看，螺纹产量与去年同期相近，但表 需弱于去年，后期库存将加快累积。原料端仍然体现供应宽松的压力，铁矿石库存继续上升，钢厂补库逻辑弱 化后铁矿石面临补跌。焦煤在春节以及两会前后面临安监收紧，同时印尼煤炭出口扰动也带来阶段性提振。但 蒙煤进口仍然偏高，压制反弹空间。 【策略建议】：黑色面临螺纹需求同比偏弱，热卷库存偏高，以及原料端供应宽松的压力。由于螺纹钢前期持 续区间震荡，后期面临方向性选择，供需偏弱背景下存在继续向下的可能。节前维持逢高套保和卖出看涨期权 做备兑的策略。 卷螺差方面，虽然目前价差较往年偏高，但春节后往往表现为走扩，由于下游需求差异，或仍将体现季节性规 律。 基差方面，华东基差在1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, it is recommended that long - position holders take profits on rallies and hold cash with an empty position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, copper is still favored as an important strategic resource in the China - US game and a substitute asset allocation for precious metals, considering the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming demand for green copper. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [96,000, 105,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12,500, 13,500] US dollars/ton [6][96]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - The overall macro situation is mixed. With the Spring Festival approaching, market risk - aversion sentiment rises. The traditional off - season leads to weak demand, and the high global visible copper inventory suppresses the upside space of copper prices. Long - position holders are advised to take profits on rallies and hold cash with an empty position during the holiday. In the long - run, copper is promising due to its strategic importance and the background of tight copper concentrate and growing green copper demand [6][96]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - In the US, employment data is poor. In January, ADP employment increased by 41,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The initial jobless claims dropped to 209,000, and the continuing jobless claims continued to decline, indicating overall stability in the job market. The January manufacturing PMI data shows that the service sector is strong while the manufacturing sector contracts slightly. The US 1 - month CPI and core CPI inflation pressures are generally controllable. The US dollar index increased by 0.87% to 97.96, causing pressure on commodities. The Middle - East geopolitical risks are volatile. The US AI stock market has concerns about the bubble, leading to panic selling [15]. - In China, the January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from December 2025, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing economy. On February 5, 2026, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call. Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman led to expectations of "interest - rate cuts + balance - sheet reduction" policies, causing the US dollar to rebound strongly, precious metals to fall, and the non - ferrous metal sector to decline [16]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - **Copper Mine Supply**: Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore abandoned merger negotiations. Southern Copper's production guidance for 2026 - 27 is lower than 2025, increasing concerns about supply shortages. The US plans to start a strategic critical mineral reserve project. Congo (Kinshasa) exported copper to the US for the first time. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports reached record highs multiple times [53]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate TC remains at a low level. The 2026 long - term copper concentrate price is 0 US dollars/dry ton, down 21.25 US dollars/dry ton from 2025, indicating a tight supply expectation [54]. - **Crude Copper Processing Fees**: The processing fees in the south and north regions and for imported crude copper have different price ranges [54]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production and Import**: In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a slight increase. Due to smelter maintenance, February production is expected to decline. In 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [56]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference**: The scrap - to - refined copper price difference has recovered to a medium - high level, but it has converged recently [56]. - **CSPT Consensus**: The CSPT group reached a consensus on reducing copper smelting capacity, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing malicious competition [56]. 3.3.2 Demand - **Copper Processing Enterprises' Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of domestic electrolytic copper rod enterprises is 69.07%, a 0.47% decrease; that of recycled copper rod enterprises is 14.82%, a 0.13% increase; and that of wire and cable enterprises is 60.15%, a 0.69% increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rates of downstream enterprises are expected to decline significantly [77]. - **Terminal Industry Copper Consumption Forecast**: In 2026, the total copper consumption of various industries is expected to be 1.68 million tons, with a 2.75% year - on - year increase [78]. - **Terminal Demand**: Green copper demand is high in renewable energy and new - energy vehicles. In the automotive sector, the retail sales of domestic passenger cars and new - energy vehicles in January 2026 have different trends. In the power sector, grid investment increased, and photovoltaic installed capacity grew rapidly. In the home - appliance sector, production increased due to the policy of trade - in of consumer goods [79]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The global visible copper inventory is at a historically high level, hitting a new high since July 2013. The high inventory restricts the upside space of copper prices. Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious stance on the copper market, with short - term risks tilted downward. Only after the Spring Festival in China when the demand recovery signal is clearer in the second half of the second quarter of 2026 may the market have new fluctuations and upward opportunities [93][94].