| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入去 | | 豆粕 | | 库阶段。进口空缺窗口期下，现货市场挺价意愿较强。叠加国际美豆出口及压榨数 | | | 短线止跌整理 | 据良好，阿根廷降雨未来十五天大幅低于正常水平，天气因素仍存干扰。内外因素 | | ★ | | 影响下，豆粕短线调整空间受限，继续做空谨慎对待，也可以关注企稳后的短多机 | | | | 会，关注后市南美天气情况。 | | | | 1 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。菜粕现货库存压 | | 菜粕 | | 力缓解，供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。虽然 1 月美农报告环比调减全球菜 | | ★ | 短线止跌整理 | 籽产量及期末库存，中加贸易关系缓解，加籽进口综合关税降至 15%,长期将大幅化 | | | | 解国内进口供应。菜粕看多观望。 | | | | 国内现货成交清淡。最新印尼公布 2026 年暂不执行 B50 政策，打压市场看多情绪， | | 棕榈油 | 短期反弹 | 好在本月前 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 特朗普政府与欧洲地缘问题持续，欧洲各国或抛售美债反制，美国最高院开审库克 | | | 长线持有 | 案，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可，短期强势。中长期，地缘秩序重塑， | | ★★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，短期白银未被征收关税叠加交易所调保 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 或会带来调整，但全年来看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口 | | ★★ | | | | | 连续 | 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 欧洲抛美债、日债押注黄金，金融市场或酝酿风暴，消费淡季铜累库明显，隔夜铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 承压回落，失守 10 万关口，建议多单移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中长期 | | ★ | | 对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观多空交织，消费淡季高锌价对需求抑制作用明显，叠加宏观和板块情绪退潮， | | 锌 | 承压回落 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously chase long [2][3] - Urea: Cautiously chase long [3] - Natural gas: Bearish rebound [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and South America have an impact on the prices of energy - related products. Supply - demand imbalances exist in many varieties, with some facing over - supply pressure during the off - season, while others have weak demand. Cost factors, especially the price of crude oil, play a crucial role in the price trends of many products [1][7][11] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Summary**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, but there is still uncertainty. The market is in an off - season with supply surplus, and inventories are rising. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term, with short - term rebounds possible [1][11][12] - **Price Information**: WTI主力 at $59.34, Brent主力 at $64.13, and SC主力 at 442.6 yuan/barrel [9] - **Supply**: Iraq's daily oil export in January 2026 is expected to be 3.6 million barrels [12] - **Demand**: The share of Middle East crude supply in India's December 2025 crude imports rose to nearly 54% [12] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 9, US crude inventory increased by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels [12] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, OPEC+ expansion may push the price into a low - price range. Short - term, watch for rebounds, and for SC, focus on the range of [430 - 445] [13] LPG - **Summary**: It follows the downward trend of the cost - end crude oil price. The supply and demand are relatively stable, with downstream chemical demand showing resilience. The inventory shows positive signals [1][17] - **Price Information**: On January 19, the PG主力 contract closed at 4124 yuan/ton, down 0.48% [16] - **Supply**: As of the week of January 16, the LPG commodity volume was 518,700 tons, up 600 tons [17] - **Demand**: As of the week of January 16, the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates were 73.07% (- 2.54pct), 67.57% (+0.00pct), and 37.99% (+0.32pct) respectively [17] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 16, the refinery inventory was 156,700 tons, down 1,900 tons, and the port inventory was 2.0278 million tons, down 104,200 tons [17] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price may continue to decline. Focus on the range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Summary**: The basis weakens, and it follows the cost - end to move weakly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [22] - **Price Information**: L05 closed at 6667 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 yuan/ton [20][22] - **Supply**: The parking ratio is 14%, and the planned device restart this week may lead to a slight increase in production [22] - **Demand**: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [22] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6600 - 6750] [22] PP - **Summary**: The warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the supply is slightly increasing. It follows the cost to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply - demand is weak on both sides [26] - **Price Information**: PP05 closed at 6482 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [24][26] - **Supply**: The parking ratio is 19%, and the PDH profit is low, increasing the expectation of maintenance [26] - **Demand**: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [26] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [26] PVC - **Summary**: The price of calcium carbide has increased, and the price of liquid caustic soda has decreased, with improved cost support. However, there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the long - term, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [30] - **Price Information**: V05 closed at 4801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 241 yuan/ton [28][30] - **Supply**: The domestic operating rate has increased to 80% [30] - **Demand**: In the seasonal off - season, both domestic and foreign demand are weak [30] - **Inventory**: Social inventory has reached a new high [30] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PX/PTA - **Summary**: It is in a range - bound state. The processing fee has been repaired, but the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the cost - end PX is in a weak balance [32] - **Price Information**: TA05 closed at 5018 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 58 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Supply**: Multiple domestic devices are under maintenance, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [32] - **Demand**: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [32] - **Inventory**: There is a slight accumulation of inventory in January - February, but the pressure is not large [32] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for 05 contract, and focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Summary**: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic supply load has increased, while the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January - February [35] - **Price Information**: EG05 closed at 3614 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 101 yuan/ton [34][35] - **Supply**: Multiple domestic devices have changed their operating status, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [35] - **Demand**: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [35] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [35] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds, and focus on the range of [3700 - 3770] [36] Methanol - **Summary**: The valuation is not low, and the comprehensive profit is weak. The domestic and overseas device operating rates have decreased, and the demand is slightly weak. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and there is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [39][40] - **Price Information**: The valuation of methanol is at the 16.0% quantile level in the past six months, and the East China basis is strengthening [39] - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas devices have reduced their operating rates, and the import volume in January is expected to be about 850,000 tons [39][40] - **Demand**: The demand from the olefin industry and traditional downstream industries is weak [39][40] - **Inventory**: The (port) inventory has been significantly reduced [40] - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the range of [2180 - 2240] [41] Urea - **Summary**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the supply is increasing with the resumption of production of previous maintenance devices. The short - term demand is relatively strong, but it will enter the off - season during the festival. The price has a ceiling and a floor under the policies of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" [43][44] - **Price Information**: The main contract of urea closed at 1801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [42][44] - **Supply**: The operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea devices are rising, and the daily output is at a high level [44] - **Demand**: The winter storage is progressing steadily, and the demand from compound fertilizers and melamine industries is strong, but the export is weakening month - on - month [43][44] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is still at a relatively high level [43] - **Strategy**: The winter storage has limited positive effects, and the supply pressure is increasing. Pay attention to the range of [1760 - 1790] [45] Natural Gas - **Summary**: Affected by cold air, the demand has been boosted in the short - term, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure in the long - term [49] - **Price Information**: On January 19, the NG主力 contract closed at $2.702 per million British thermal units, up 0.75% [48] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the natural gas production of industrial enterprises above designated size increased steadily. The number of natural gas rigs in the US decreased [49] - **Demand**: The proportion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the terminal sales of heavy - duty trucks was 26.00% from January to November 2025 [49] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 9, the US natural gas inventory decreased by 71 billion cubic feet [49] - **Strategy**: In the winter, the demand for heating provides support, but the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the range of [3.361 - 3.991] [49] Asphalt - **Summary**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, and the price has followed the decline of crude oil. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the cracking spread is gradually returning to normal but still has room for compression [54] - **Price Information**: The BU主力 contract closed at 3142 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [52] - **Supply**: The production in December 2025 increased slightly, and the operating rate has changed [53] - **Demand**: The demand has entered the off - season, and the shipment volume has decreased [53] - **Inventory**: The inventory of 70 sample enterprises has increased [53] - **Strategy**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. Pay attention to the range of [3100 - 3200] [54] Glass - **Summary**: The terminal real - estate demand is weak, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the price is expected to continue to decline [58] - **Price Information**: FG05 closed at 1070 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton [56][58] - **Supply**: The daily melting volume has slightly increased, but supply reduction is still needed [58] - **Demand**: The demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and the number of deep - processing orders is low [58] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [1040 - 1080] [58] Soda Ash - **Summary**: The operating rate of production enterprises has increased, and the factory inventory is gradually decreasing from a high level. The demand from the float glass industry is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [62] - **Price Information**: SA05 closed at 1192 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 42 yuan/ton [60][62] - **Supply**: The second - phase 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to 87% [62] - **Demand**: The real - estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, resulting in insufficient demand [62] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [1150 - 1200] [62]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific ratings for each variety: short - term decline for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, short - term rebound for palm oil, short - term weakness for soybean oil, short - term oscillation for rapeseed oil, oscillation adjustment for cotton, short - term rebound for red dates, and caution for callback for live pigs [1]. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: After multiple rounds of negative factors are realized, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. Although the domestic spot price is resistant to decline, recent domestic reserves release and the successful China - Canada meeting led to a new low in soybean meal prices, and short - selling after continuous decline should be cautious [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The improvement of China - Canada trade relations may lead to a long - term increase in imports. Currently, the supply is tight, but the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see with a bullish view [1][4][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of January increased month - on - month, and the production decreased month - on - month, which supports the market. Although Indonesia's decision not to implement the B50 policy in 2026 dampens the bullish sentiment, there are still opportunities to go long at low prices, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][7][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the pre - holiday stocking makes the domestic spot trading good. If the palm oil data continues to improve, there may be short - term long opportunities [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The easing of China - Canada trade relations may relieve the long - term supply pressure. Considering the current high basis, the decline space is limited, and it may oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Cotton**: The 1 - month USDA data is positive for the ICE market, and the short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong. The domestic market is facing a slowdown in sales, increased raw material inventory pressure, and weakening demand in the off - season. The short - term is expected to adjust weakly, and the medium - to - long - term may recover after the release of negative factors [1][11][13]. - **Red Dates**: With the arrival of the peak season of new product listing and consumption, the futures price fluctuation increases. The accelerated inventory reduction may drive a short - term rebound, but the overall situation is still under pressure in the context of loose supply and demand [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: As it approaches the end of January, the pressure of increased slaughter before the Spring Festival is increasing, and the market sentiment may change. The near - month contract may face increasing pressure, and the far - month contract is also under pressure due to the slow reduction of breeding sows [1][16][17]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 772100 tons, a decrease of 30700 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 687330 tons, a decrease of 25790 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.62%, and an increase of 165860 tons from last year, an increase of 31.81%; the soybean meal inventory was 94720 tons, a decrease of 9680 tons from last week, a decrease of 9.27%, and an increase of 39050 tons from last year, an increase of 70.15% [3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3195.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.03% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 60000 tons, unchanged from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, unchanged from last week [6]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2221 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 1.51%; the national average spot price was 2388.95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.79 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 3.07% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 746100 tons, an increase of 10100 tons from last week, an increase of 1.37%, and an increase of 264300 tons from last year, an increase of 54.86% [9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.30%; the national average price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.03% [7]. Cotton - **Inventory Data**: As of the relevant period, the national cotton commercial inventory was 5686300 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from the previous value; the Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory was 4706300 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous value [10]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 was 14545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.31%; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.32% [10]. Red Dates - **Inventory Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 14415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from the previous week, and 3737 tons higher than the same period [15]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 was 8815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.68%; the price of Aksu general - grade dates was 5.15 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Sales Data**: As of the relevant period, the national sample - enterprise pig inventory was 3847750, a decrease of 8570 from the previous month, a decrease of 0.22%; the pig slaughter volume was 12330900, an increase of 450900 from the previous month, an increase of 3.80%; the breeding sow inventory was 3990000, a decrease of 45000 from the previous month, a decrease of 1.12% [16]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract LH2603 was 11705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.30%; the national average slaughter price was 13300 yuan/ton, an increase of 530 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 4.15% [16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹需求环比回升，产量及库存大体持平，变化不大。目前螺纹利润尚可，但受制于需 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 求淡季，产量回升预期不强。铁水产量环比略降，原料价格偏高抑制钢厂补库积极性。 | | ★ | | 钢材供需层面矛盾有限，宏观利多驱动不强，总体维持区间运行，短期受钢厂事故影响 | | | | 或有安全生产趋严预期，带来阶段性提振。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有下降，绝对水平偏高，去库速度仍然较慢。现货相 | | | 谨慎看多 | 对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制，中期维持区间运行， | | ★ | | 短期受钢厂事故影响或有安全生产趋严预期，带来阶段性提振。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，本期外矿发到货双双下降，价格回落后部分钢企有采购意愿，阶段性带动矿 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 价走强。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭首轮提涨遇阻，近期原料煤价格上涨后，焦企亏损程度加深，但短期焦企生产积极 | | | 谨慎看空 | 性尚可，供应量环比略降。从需求来看， ...

中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 特朗普言论震惊欧洲，欧洲即将反击，美国最高院开审库克案，美联储降息概率反 复，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | ★★ | | | | | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，尽管白银未被征收关税，但同时交割交 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 易等持续，短期交易所调保，短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年， | | | | 全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | 铜 | | 特朗普为夺取格陵兰岛威胁对欧洲加征关税，欧美关系恶化，美元走弱，美国持续 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 虹吸全球铜资源，短期铜重新站稳 10 万关口，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，中长 | | | | 期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观多空交织，消费淡季高锌价对需求抑制作用明显，叠加宏观和板块情绪退潮， | | 锌 | 承压回落 | 锌承压回落。企业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferromanganese (MnSi)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicon Iron (SiFe)**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Mid - term, it will operate within a range. Rebar demand rebounds month - on - month, with production and inventory remaining largely flat. Hot - rolled coil production and apparent demand are relatively stable, with inventory slightly decreasing but at a high absolute level and slow destocking speed [1][3][4] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - making molten iron output slightly decreases month - on - month, steel mills replenish inventory as needed, and port inventory continues to accumulate rapidly, with the fundamentals weakening marginally [1][6] - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts is implemented and some coke enterprises initiate the first round of price increases, the loss of coke enterprises deepens. In the short term, the production enthusiasm of coke enterprises is acceptable, and the supply decreases slightly month - on - month. The market sentiment fluctuates, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][10] - **Coking Coal**: The supply from previously shut - down coal mines increases significantly month - on - month. The port clearance volume has returned to the high level of the same period. The spot trading has improved recently, and the downstream has a strong willingness to replenish inventory. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][14] - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply in the production area decreases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory starts to decline but remains at a high level. For silicon iron, the supply in the main production areas increases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory decreases month - on - month. New rounds of steel tenders are starting, and attention should be paid to the pricing of steel mills [1][17] 3. Summarized by Relevant Catalogs Steel Variety Views - **Rebar**: Demand rebounds month - on - month, production and inventory are mostly unchanged. Current profits are acceptable, but due to the off - season of demand, the expectation of production increase is not strong. The iron - making molten iron output decreases slightly month - on - month, and high raw material prices suppress the enthusiasm of steel mills to replenish inventory [1][4] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory slightly decreases, but the absolute level is high, and the destocking speed is slow. The spot is relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around the flat - water level [1][4] Disk Operation Suggestions - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to operate within a range in the medium term. In the short term, due to the steel mill accident, there may be an expectation of stricter safety production, bringing phased boosts [1][5] Iron Ore Variety Views - The iron - making molten iron output decreases slightly month - on - month, steel mills replenish inventory as needed, and port inventory continues to accumulate rapidly, with the fundamentals weakening marginally [1][6] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bearish. The iron - making molten iron output slightly decreases, and the supply - demand situation weakens month - on - month [1][7] Coke Variety Views - After the fourth round of price cuts is implemented and some coke enterprises initiate the first round of price increases, the loss of coke enterprises deepens due to rising raw coal prices. In the short term, the production enthusiasm is acceptable, and the supply decreases slightly month - on - month. The iron - making molten iron output decreases slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory replenishment improves slightly, mainly purchasing as needed. The market sentiment fluctuates, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][10] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [1][11] Coking Coal Variety Views - Previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply increases significantly month - on - month. The port clearance volume has returned to the high level of the same period. The spot trading has improved recently, and the downstream has a strong willingness to replenish inventory, with good destocking of mine inventory. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][14] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [1][15] Ferroalloys Variety Views - **Ferromanganese**: The supply in the production area decreases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory starts to decline but remains at a high level. New rounds of steel tenders are starting, and the recently announced tender prices are mostly concentrated between 5870 - 5940 yuan/ton, with the final price of a landmark steel mill at 5920 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton [1][17] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply in the main production areas increases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory decreases month - on - month. New rounds of steel tenders are starting, and the final price of a landmark steel mill is 5760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the actions of other steel mills [1][17] Disk Operation Suggestions - Both ferromanganese and silicon iron are expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Plastics and PP showed a pattern of rising and then falling this week. Plastics had a weekly gain for four consecutive weeks, while PP's weekly line turned negative. The market is currently facing a risk of correction in the short - term due to factors such as significant increases in warehouse receipts and the seasonal off - peak demand [3][8][14]. - For plastics, although the cost support has improved and the spot trading has picked up, and the upstream and mid - stream inventories have significantly decreased, the downstream is in the seasonal off - peak season, and the replenishment may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the changes in geopolitical conflicts, and if the market sentiment weakens, the market may return to the previous downward trend [4]. - For PP, although the cost of propylene has been relatively strong recently, the proportion of externally purchased propylene production capacity is only about 4%, and the cost support is not significant. The weighted gross profit is at a neutral level compared to the same period. The market is affected by factors such as low - level operation of production, seasonal off - peak demand, and significant increases in warehouse receipts on January 13th, and there is an opportunity to short the market [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Plastics**: Opened slightly lower at 6662 on Monday, dropped to the weekly low of 6607, then continued the upward trend of last week, reached the highest of 6888 on Thursday, and finally closed at 6695 yuan/ton on Friday, with an amplitude of 281 points in the whole week [3][14]. - **PP**: Opened slightly lower at 6662 on Monday, dropped to the weekly low of 6431, then continued the upward trend of last week, reached the highest of 6664 on Thursday, and finally closed at 6496 yuan/ton on Friday, with an amplitude of 233 points in the whole week [8][14]. - **Funds**: As of this Friday, the main positions of PE were 490,000 lots, showing a slight decrease, and the market rebounded with a reduction in positions [16]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Friday, the number of L and PP warehouse receipts was 10,627 and 17,508 lots respectively [27]. - **Spreads**: As of this Friday, the main spread of plastics was 65 yuan/ton, which was slightly higher than the neutral level in the same period; the main spread of PP was - 27 yuan/ton, which was at a low level in the same period. The L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 38 yuan/ton. The LP05 spread was 199 yuan/ton [21][24][30]. - **Valuation**: As of this Wednesday, the weighted gross profit of LLDPE was - 215 yuan/ton, with a significant recovery in the gross profit of MTO and ethylene; the weighted gross profit of PP was - 748 yuan/ton, and the PDH gross profit was still at a low level in the same period [32]. 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply** - **Plastics**: This week, the PE production was 670,000 tons, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a capacity utilization rate of 82%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 9.8%. The supply pressure was mainly concentrated in HD, and the cumulative production of LD was significantly lower than that of last year. Some plants are planned to restart in the next period, and the production is expected to increase. According to the balance sheet forecast, the year - on - year production at the end of January is expected to be 9.1% [43]. - **PP**: This week, the PP production was 780,000 tons, showing a decline for four consecutive weeks, with a capacity utilization rate of 76%, and the cumulative year - on - year production increase was 6.3%. The production is expected to increase slightly next week, as the profit of externally purchased propylene has improved and the enterprise's enthusiasm for starting production has increased. According to the balance sheet forecast, the cumulative year - on - year production at the end of January is expected to be 13.9%, and the cumulative year - on - year production from January to April is expected to be 9.6%. There are no production expansion plans in the first half of the year, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually ease [46]. - **Import and Export** - **PE**: From January to November 2025, the average monthly export volume was 90,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 31%), and the average monthly import volume was 1.1 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%). In November 2025, the import volume was 1.06 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%). By variety, the cumulative year - on - year changes of LL, LD, and HE were - 9.8%, 9.1%, and - 5.4% respectively [49][52]. - **PP**: From January to November 2025, the average monthly import volume was 280,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 9%), and the average monthly export volume was 260,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 28%). In November 2025, the PP import volume was 230 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%), and the export volume was 260,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 38%) [55][58]. - **Downstream Demand** - **PE**: This week, the downstream capacity utilization rate of PE was 41%, showing a seasonal decline. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the apparent consumption of PE was 11%. The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to November 2025 was 45.6 trillion yuan (a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0%), with a continuous decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate for five months. The downstream agricultural film operating rate has declined for eight consecutive weeks, and the operating rate of PE packaging film has significantly declined [60][62]. - **PP**: This week, the downstream operating rate of PP has declined for five consecutive weeks, among which the BOPP operating rate has increased and the PP non - woven fabric has weakened. From January to November 2025, the year - on - year increase in the apparent consumption of PP was 16.9%. In November 2025, the apparent consumption of PP was 3.51 million tons. This week, the plastic braiding operating rate has declined for six consecutive weeks, and the BOPP operating rate remains at a high level [64][67]. - **Plastic Products Export**: From January to November 2025, the average monthly export value of plastics and products was 11.6 billion US dollars (a year - on - year increase of 0.5%), and the proportion of the export value to the United States was 14%. In November 2025, the cumulative export value of plastics and products was 12 billion US dollars (a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month increase of 13%), and the proportion of the export value to the United States was 13% [69]. - **Inventory**: This week, the commercial inventory of PE was 860,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.12 million tons), and the commercial inventory of PP was 700,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons). As of this Thursday, the petrochemical inventory of polyolefins was 530,000 tons. This week, the enterprise inventory of PE was 350,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25,000 tons), and the enterprise inventory of PP was 430,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons). This week, the social inventory of PE was 480,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0 and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons), and the trader inventory of PP was 190,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons) [72][74][77][79]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheets of PE and PP from 2014 to 2026, the monthly supply - demand balance sheets of PE and PP in 2026, and the balance sheet forecasts of PE and PP contracts such as PE05, PE09, PE01, PP05, PP09, and PP01 [80][81][82][83]. 3. Strategies - **Plastics**: For single - sided trading, take a slightly bearish view with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 6,550 - 6,800 yuan/ton for L2605. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. For hedging, take a wait - and - see approach [5][7]. - **PP**: For single - sided trading, take a slightly bearish view with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 6,350 - 6,600 yuan/ton for PP2605. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. For hedging, as the market maintains a contango structure, industrial customers can sell short at high prices when the opportunity arises [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The PVC market is expected to face downward pressure due to the shift in supply - demand expectations, resulting in a weak reality and weak expectation scenario. With the cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC powder from April 1st, far - month exports are likely to decline. Additionally, insufficient upstream production cuts and the off - season for domestic demand have led to continuous inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. Therefore, a bearish approach is recommended until there is an unexpected reduction in supply [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market Review - **Price Movement**: This week, PVC prices were under pressure and declined. After a sharp gap - down opening at 4760 on Monday, it briefly hit the daily limit down at 4576, then rebounded with the sector, reaching a weekly high of 4949 on Tuesday before falling again. It ended at 4652, with an amplitude of 373 points between 4576 - 4949 [3][9]. - **Funding**: As of Friday, the main contract's open interest was 1.02 million lots, at a high level compared to the same period [12]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of Friday, the V05 basis was 223 yuan/ton, strengthening from the previous low. The V5 - 9 spread was 120 yuan/ton. On Monday, affected by export tariff news, the V5 - 9 spread briefly strengthened to - 40 yuan/ton. Considering the short - term front - loading of export demand, a positive spread arbitrage for the V5 - 9 contracts is advisable [15][17]. - **Valuation**: This week, the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 662 yuan/ton, up significantly from the low of - 1102 yuan/ton on December 12th; ethylene - based PVC gross profit was - 138 yuan/ton, up from - 520 yuan/ton on December 12th. As of Thursday, Shandong's chlor - alkali integrated profit was - 839 yuan/ton (at a low level), and Northwest China's was 743 yuan/ton (at a neutral level). Recently, caustic soda spot prices have been falling, and the comprehensive cost of Shandong's chlor - alkali industry has decreased. In January 2026, industrial electricity prices in Western Inner Mongolia decreased to 0.65 yuan/kWh (down 0.02 month - on - month), while in Shandong, it increased to 0.44 yuan/ton (up 0.06 month - on - month) [20][27]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: This week, PVC production was 490,000 tons (down 0.1 from last week), with a capacity utilization rate of 80% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Next week, the operating rate is expected to decline slightly. Only Qinzhou Huayi and Wanhua Fujian have maintenance plans in January [30]. - **Domestic Demand**: This week, the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. The operating rates of pipes and profiles were weak, while the film operating rate was at the highest level in the same period. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year change in apparent consumption was - 1.0%, with November's apparent consumption at 1.82 million tons (up 2.7% year - on - year). The real estate market is still in an adjustment period, with new construction, completion, and sales areas showing increasing declines in 2025. The real estate transaction area is at a low level, and in November 2025, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline [32][35]. - **External Demand**: Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, FOB ethylene, calcium carbide, and CFR Southeast Asia prices increased by 40, 15, and 20 US dollars/ton respectively this week. Asian prices are strong, but some traders are waiting and watching due to concerns about rising freight costs. From January to November 2025, PVC exports were 3.51 million tons (up 1.12 million tons year - on - year, a cumulative increase of 47%), with 275,000 tons exported in November (up 30% year - on - year). This week, the sample export orders of PVC producers were 62,200 tons, indicating significant front - loading of exports [40][45]. - **Inventory**: As of Thursday, PVC enterprise inventory was 310,000 tons (up 13,000 week - on - week), rising for three consecutive weeks. The small - sample social inventory was 540,000 tons, and the large - sample social inventory was 1.14 million tons, increasing for four consecutive weeks. The upstream and mid - stream inventory was 1.455 million tons (up 13,000 week - on - week, up 460,000 year - on - year), rising for three consecutive weeks. According to seasonal patterns, social inventory is expected to reach 1.18 million tons by the end of January [47][50]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Market Review - **Price and Profit**: The caustic soda market has seen five consecutive weeks of decline. As of Thursday, Shandong's chlor - alkali gross profit was 266 yuan/ton, and the liquid chlorine price was 350 yuan/ton [59]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week, caustic soda production was 850,000 tons (up 4000 week - on - week), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The capacity utilization rate was 87%, at a high level compared to the same period, and is expected to rise to 88% next week. From January to October 2025, caustic soda exports were 3.73 million tons (a cumulative increase of 37% year - on - year). This week, the in - plant inventory of liquid caustic soda was 510,000 tons (up 17,000 week - on - week), rising for three consecutive weeks to the highest level in the same period [61][67]. 4. Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Adopt a bearish approach. Focus on the 4650 - 4950 yuan/ton range for the V2605 contract [5]. - **Hedging**: Since the futures price is higher than the spot price, industrial clients can sell on rallies [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Take advantage of the short - term support for near - month prices due to front - loaded exports and conduct positive spread arbitrage between contracts [5].

Report Title - The title of the report is "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report: Short - term expectations are fully reflected, and carbonate lithium fluctuates at a high level" [1] Report Information - The analyst is Zhang Qing, with a consulting account number Z0019679, from the Research Institute of Zhonghui Futures. The report date is January 16, 2026 [2] Market View Summary Macroeconomic Overview - In December, China's exports increased by 2.3% year - on - year (expected 3%), imports decreased by 3.1% year - on - year (expected 2.9%), and the trade surplus was $75.34 billion. The export growth rate slowed down, and the import decline widened. The 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.45%, and the 5 - year LPR was reported at 4.2%, remaining unchanged for the 9th consecutive month. The central bank announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools such as re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses and rediscounts starting from January 19. M2 increased by 8.7% year - on - year in December. The increase in social financing scale was 2.45 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 1.4 trillion yuan. In December, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and increased by 0.38% month - on - month. The Fed's interest rate cut was postponed. The Prime Minister of Canada visited China this week to promote China - Canada economic and trade cooperation in the fields of agriculture and energy [3]. Supply Side - This week, the production of carbonate lithium decreased slightly, but the weekly production remained above 24,000 tons, and the average industry operating rate was above 50% [3]. Demand Side - From January 1st to 11th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market were 117,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 38% compared with the same period in January last year and a 67% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 117,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 38%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 167,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 30% compared with the same period in January last year and a 51% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 167,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 30% [4]. Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore increased. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was $1,750 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $120 per ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $2,250 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $368 per ton; the market price of lithium mica was 6,050 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 450 yuan per ton. The profit of the carbonate lithium industry was 39,668 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,593 yuan [4]. Total Inventory - As of January 15th, the total inventory was 109,679 tons, a decrease of 263 tons from last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 19,727 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,345 tons [4]. Market Outlook - The basis between futures and spot prices remained stable this week. The discount of battery - grade carbonate lithium was concentrated between 500 - 2,400 yuan per ton, and that of industrial - grade carbonate lithium was concentrated between 1,900 - 3,300 yuan per ton. The actual transaction discount of battery - grade carbonate lithium was between 2,000 - 3,000 yuan per ton. Upstream lithium salt producers were active in selling, and traders were active in purchasing. Downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines due to cost pressure. The main contract of carbonate lithium fluctuated greatly this week. At the beginning of the week, it rose for two consecutive days due to the news of canceling the export tax rebate on lithium batteries. However, with the overall decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the exchange's new position - limit measures leading to capital outflows, the price of carbonate lithium dropped significantly. The fundamental situation has not changed much. Upstream lithium salt producers are highly motivated to start production due to high prices, and the warehouse - receipt inventory in the futures market continues to rise. The change in the export tax - rebate policy has triggered an expectation of "rush to export", and the market remains optimistic about the demand in the first quarter. However, the new - energy vehicle market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and the high - frequency data in January has shown a significant decline. In 2026, new production capacities of material manufacturers will be put into operation on a large scale. There will be rigid - demand purchasing support after the lithium price drops. In the short term, the upward trend of the price will slow down under the influence of capital and market sentiment. Wait for the opportunity to go long after a sufficient correction [5]. Price Changes | Product | Price Index | Unit | Price as of January 16th | Price on January 9th | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spodumene | 6%CIF | USD/ton | 2,250 | 1,948 | 15.50% [6] | | | African SC 5% | USD/ton | 1,750 | 1,630 | 7.36% [6] | | Lithium Mica | ≥2.5% | CNY/ton | 6,050 | 5,600 | 8.04% [6] | | Lithium Metal | ≥99% | CNY/ton | 875,000 | 725,000 | 20.69% [6] | | Carbonate Lithium | Battery - Grade | CNY/ton | 157,000 | 140,000 | 12.14% [6] | | | Industrial - Grade | CNY/ton | 155,000 | 138,000 | 12.32% [6] | | Lithium Hydroxide | Battery - Grade | CNY/ton | 150,000 | 135,000 | 11.11% [6] | | | Industrial - Grade | CNY/ton | 142,500 | 125,000 | 14.00% [6] | | Lithium Hexafluorophosphate | | CNY/ton | 153,000 | 156,000 | - 1.92% [6] | | Ternary Materials | 523 | CNY/ton | 177,400 | 166,400 | 6.61% [6] | | | 622 | CNY/ton | 175,650 | 159,650 | 10.02% [6] | | | 811 | CNY/ton | 193,800 | 181,800 | 6.60% [6] | | | 111 | CNY/ton | 168,250 | 157,250 | 7.00% [6] | | Ternary Precursors | 523 | CNY/ton | 103,725 | 101,255 | 2.44% [6] | | | 622 | CNY/ton | 96,350 | 93,120 | 3.47% [6] | | | 811 | CNY/ton | 116,750 | 113,465 | 2.90% [6] | | Lithium Iron Phosphate | Energy - Storage Type | CNY/ton | 54,100 | 49,700 | 8.85% [6] | | | Power Type | CNY/ton | 56,100 | 51,800 | 8.30% [6] | | Iron Phosphate | | CNY/ton | 11,210 | 11,020 | 1.72% [6] | | Lithium Cobalt Oxide | 4.35v | CNY/ton | 400,000 | 391,000 | 2.30% [6] | | Lithium Manganate | Capacity Type | CNY/ton | 56,500 | 53,000 | 6.60% [6] | | | Power Type | CNY/ton | 57,500 | 54,000 | 6.48% [6] | | Artificial Anode Materials | High - End | CNY/ton | 53,500 | 53,500 | 0.00% [6] | | | Mid - End | CNY/ton | 27,500 | 27,500 | 0.00% [6] | | | Low - End | CNY/ton | 20,000 | 20,000 | 0.00% [6] | | Natural Anode Materials | High - End | CNY/ton | 50,000 | 50,000 | 0.00% [6] | | | Mid - End | CNY/ton | 31,000 | 31,000 | 0.00% [6] | | | Low - End | CNY/ton | 21,250 | 21,250 | 0.00% [6] | | Electrolytes | Lithium Iron Phosphate | CNY/ton | 35,500 | 35,500 | 0.00% [6] | | | Ternary/Conventional Power Type | CNY/ton | 37,250 | 37,250 | 0.00% [6] | Market Review - As of January 16th, the LC2605 contract closed at 146,200 yuan per ton, a 1.9% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 157,000 yuan per ton, a 12% increase from last week. The basis changed from discount to premium, and the open interest of the main contract was 420,000. This week, the main contract hit a new high. Affected by the news of canceling the export tax - rebate subsidy for lithium batteries over the weekend, the market was optimistic about the expectation of rush to export. With the pre - positioning of demand and the slow release of upstream production, the price soared to 174,000 yuan. However, the sales volume of the terminal new - energy vehicle market was average in January, and overseas production resumed. The price of carbonate lithium dropped significantly due to weakening expectations [7]. Production Situation Carbonate Lithium - As of January 16th, the production of carbonate lithium was 24,510 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 710 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 54.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.59%. A few lithium salt producers carried out maintenance plans this week, leading to a slight decline in production. However, the industry operating rate remained above 50%, and the ramping - up of new production capacities continued to contribute to the increase. South American lithium salt producers will resume partial production at the end of January, and the supply is expected to be loose [9]. Lithium Hydroxide - As of January 16th, the production of lithium hydroxide was 6,715 tons, a week - on - week increase of 325 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 36.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.79%. This week, the raw material prices fluctuated greatly, and downstream buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude. However, the profit inversion of upstream enterprises restricted their enthusiasm for starting production, and some production lines were still under maintenance. The market remained in a tight - balance state [11]. Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of January 16th, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 97,203 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,174 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 85.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91%. The continuous decline in the production of lithium iron phosphate this week was mainly due to the maintenance of individual large factories and production line technological transformation, combined with the obvious cost pressure on small and medium - sized manufacturers, which actively reduced the device load [14]. Ternary Materials - The raw material prices of ternary materials were high, and enterprises slightly reduced production [16]. Other Cathode Materials - The downstream purchasing willingness of other cathode materials was low, and the industry produced according to sales [23]. Inventory Situation Carbonate Lithium Industry - As of January 15th, the total inventory of the carbonate lithium industry was 109,679 tons, a decrease of 263 tons from last week. The warehouse - receipt inventory was 27,458 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,098 tons. The total inventory of carbonate lithium decreased again. The inventory of downstream material manufacturers increased, which indirectly confirmed that downstream buyers still maintained rigid - demand purchasing in the traditional off - season. With the rapid price increase, the warehouse - receipt inventory continued to increase [30]. Downstream Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of January 16th, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 30,786 tons, a decrease of 2,313 tons from last week. This week, the finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate continued to decline. Downstream cell manufacturers maintained a stable purchasing rhythm. However, due to the high current cost price, downstream buyers only maintained the necessary safety inventory. The operating load of the lithium iron phosphate industry decreased, mainly consuming the existing inventory [33]. Other Downstream Industries - In the off - season of demand, the shipment of ternary materials was not smooth, and the inventory increased slightly. The inventory situations of manganese acid lithium, cobalt acid lithium, and ternary precursors also had corresponding changes [35][37][39]. Cost and Profit Situation Cost Side - As of January 16th, the price of African SC 5% lithium ore was $1,750 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $120 per ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $2,250 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $368 per ton; the market price of lithium mica was 6,050 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 450 yuan per ton. Although the import of lithium ore was abundant, the production capacity of lithium salt producers was full, and the high completion rate of Spring Festival inventory replenishment supported the raw - material prices at a high level [44]. Carbonate Lithium - As of January 16th, the production cost of carbonate lithium was 115,364 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 11,560 yuan. The profit of the carbonate lithium industry was 39,668 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,593 yuan. The average production cost of the carbonate lithium industry increased week - on - week due to the significant increase in lithium - ore prices. The profit margins of integrated and salt - lake enterprises expanded significantly, but the profits of processing enterprises relying on external raw - material procurement were meager, and the internal differentiation was relatively serious [46]. Lithium Hydroxide - As of January 16th, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 108,189 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 13,132 yuan. The profit of the lithium hydroxide industry was 40,022 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 11,047 yuan. This week, the prices of raw materials and carbonate lithium increased significantly, further increasing the cost - side pressure of lithium hydroxide production. The price of lithium hydroxide was affected by carbonate lithium, with scarce low - price goods, and the industry profit further expanded [48]. Downstream Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of January 16th, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 55,041 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,609 yuan. The loss of lithium iron phosphate was