| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求同比仍然较弱，铁水产量环比回升，较往年同期偏高，钢材整体供需偏宽松。 | | | 谨慎看空 | 同时原料端供应较高，钢材成本有下行驱动，弱现实带来持续压制。后续仍存在一定政 | | ★ | | 策预期，整体维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存绝对水平偏高，供需变化符合季节性特征，基差在平水 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 附近窄幅波动。钢材整体弱现实的状态仍对行情形成压制，中期维持低位区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 外矿发货明显回升，铁水继续增加，港口库存积累，钢厂消耗库存，短期可能会有钢厂 | | ★ | | 补库，价格受到支撑，但是补库力度有限，矿价向上的空间也受限。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 受焦炉限产解除影响，近期焦企开工持稳。从需求来看，铁水产量环比继续回升，下游维持 | | ★ | | 去库状态，补库意愿不足，预计短期价格维持区间偏弱运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 国内煤矿集中复产，矿山日均产量环比回升。从需求来看，铁水产量环比继续回升，下游维 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，油价高位震荡，关注美伊谈判进展。地缘：地缘政治主导 油价，美伊日内瓦谈判结束，暂未公布明确谈判结果，3 月 2 日将于维也 | | 原油 | | | | | 高位震荡 | 纳举行技术谈判；核心驱动：供给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线 | | ★ | | 上会议，消息称 OPEC+将于 4 月继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量 | | | | 变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 跟随成本端油价高位震荡。成本端油价短期受地缘扰动波动加剧，伴随美 | | LPG | | 伊日内瓦谈判，油价高位震荡，液化气跟随成本盘整；供需双增，商品量 | | ★ | 高位震荡 | 与下游化工开工率均上升；库存端偏利空，港口与厂库连续上升。 | | L | 偏弱 | 上游供给充足，LP 价差转负。下游复工较晚，基本面驱动补不足，跟随 板块偏弱震荡。部分装置陆续回归，预计本周产量增加。短期供需驱动不 | | ★ | | | | | | 足，基差延续偏弱格局，关注 ...

| | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 地缘谈判结果不明显，盘面激烈博弈。当前美关税反复、地缘反复，另外日本政府 | | | 多单持有 | 或给资本市场带来潜在动荡，黄金有支撑，中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存 | | ★ | | 在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 基本面尚无变化。白银光伏、新能源汽车及 AI 等新兴领域推动其工业需求占比攀升 | | 白银 | 谨慎追高 至近 | 60%，成为需求增长的核心引擎；全球流动性宽松强化了其与黄金联动的避险 | | ★ | | | | | | 金融属性。短期参与难度大，关注风险报偿比。 | | 铜 | | 美伊谈判反复，贵金属承压调整，带动有色板块普遍飘绿，随着金三银四消费旺季 | | ★ | 多单持有 | 和国内两会临近，铜震荡偏强，建议多单持有，部分逢高止盈，警惕宏观情绪消退 后铜价冲高回落，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 美伊谈判反复，有色隔夜普遍承压调整，锌供需双弱，库存累库制约上行空间，建 | | 锌 | 谨慎看多 | 议谨慎看多，关注节后需求恢复节奏 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国生物燃料生产前景明朗，美国环保署预计将在 3 月底前最终确定新的生物燃料 | | 豆粕 | | 掺混强制规定。此外，美国未提高中国商品的关税，缓解了市场担忧，隔夜美豆收 | | ★ | 偏多震荡 | 涨。昨日国内豆粕小幅高开收涨。后续仍需关注南美大豆产量及质量情况能否带来 | | | | 更多的提振。 | | | | 现货可售货源偏紧、进口菜粕多以 3-5 月远月报价为主，缺乏可即时成交的现货货 | | 菜粕 | 短期震荡 | 源支撑，市场整体成交持续清淡。库存供应偏低暂限制菜粕下调空间，叠加 3 月 9 | | ★ | | 日加拿大菜籽反倾销终裁结果尚未公布，消费淡季下，菜粕预计暂跟随豆粕走势为 | | | | 主。昨日菜粕现货价格环比大幅下跌，拖累菜粕收跌。 | | | | 马棕榈油本月出口数据疲软，加上国内棕榈油由于 2 月国内买船偏高，昨日棕榈油 | | 棕榈油 | 震荡整理 | 收跌，维持偏弱运行。但美生柴乐观预期以及国内远月采购需求依然存在，或限制 | | ★ | | 棕榈油下跌空间。关注马盘后续出口 ...

中辉能化观点 尿素 ★ 谨慎追涨 下行但仍处同期高位。需求端弱现实强预期，冬储需求走弱，复合肥开工高位下滑， 工业需求相对稳定；尿素及化肥（硫酸铵、氯化铵）出口相对较好，近期印度新一 轮尿素招标开启。社库持续去库（库存大幅低于去年同期）。在"出口配额制"及 "保供稳价"背景下，作为重要农资，尿素上有顶下有底。整体来看，尿素基本面 偏宽松，但市场存春季用肥预期及出口交易逻辑，需求端存支撑。节后延续震荡偏 强走势。 2 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，油价高位震荡，关注美伊谈判进展。地缘：地缘政治主导 油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核心驱动：供 | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+将于 4 月 | | ★ | | 继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 美伊谈判尚未落地，跟随成本端油价高位震荡。成本端油价短期受地缘扰 | | LPG | 震荡 | 动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Silver: Cautious, advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [1] - Copper: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Zinc: Cautious bullish, advised to be cautious about going long [1] - Lead: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Tin: Bullish, expected to be strong [1] - Aluminum: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Nickel: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish, advised to try long positions with a light position [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish, expected to be under pressure [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks such as US tariff fluctuations and the Iran situation provide support for gold. In the long - term, central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its strategic allocation value. Silver's industrial demand is increasing, and its financial hedging attributes are strengthened, but short - term participation is difficult [1][3]. - The relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosts the property market, and with the approaching of the peak consumption season and the Two Sessions, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term and remain optimistic in the long - term [1][5][7]. - The supply and demand of zinc are both weak, and inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish and wait for more macro guidance [1][8][10]. - The cost of alumina has stabilized at a low level. Although inventory has accumulated, the resumption of downstream enterprises after the holiday is expected to drive the short - term rebound of aluminum prices [1][11][13]. - Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances lead to a short - term rebound in nickel prices, while stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [1][15][17]. - The continuous destocking of lithium carbonate in the off - season, along with potential supply disruptions, drives up prices, and it is recommended to go long [1][19][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold and silver futures rose, and the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of gold ETF holdings reflect the strong demand for hedging [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: Uncertainties such as the US - Iran negotiation and Trump's tariff policy, as well as the "safety stock theory", enhance the value of gold and silver as hedging assets [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has a long - term upward trend. Short - term support levels are around 1120 for gold and 21000 for silver. Be vigilant against profit - taking risks [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all rose, and trading volume and open interest increased significantly. Inventory has accumulated, and the basis and premium have changed [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mine supply is tight, and domestic copper smelting capacity growth has been curbed. High copper prices and the holiday effect have led to significant inventory accumulation [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, take partial profits at high prices, and beware of price drops after the macro - sentiment fades. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for Shanghai copper is [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [13000, 13500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices showed a narrow - range oscillation. Trading volume and open interest increased, inventory changed, and the basis and premium also changed [8]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, and supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. Inventory has accumulated seasonally [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautiously bullish, pay attention to the post - holiday demand recovery rhythm, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long - term, try long positions on dips. The price range for Shanghai zinc is [24200, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum and alumina futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [11]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. New electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to increase production steadily. Inventory is a short - term suppressing factor, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips in the short - term, pay attention to inventory accumulation, and the main operating range is [22000 - 25000] [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel and stainless steel futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances increase market concerns. Stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes, and the main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose, and the prices of spot lithium products also increased. Inventory decreased, and production decreased [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Supply disruptions such as factory fires and export controls, as well as the expected increase in demand for replenishment, strengthen the expectation of supply tightening [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, and the price range is [162000 - 180000] [22].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | | 未来十五天，阿根廷降雨依然低于正常水平。巴西降雨过高，导致收割进度慢于去 | | | | 年，且质量存在影响风险。美国加征关税问题，中方表现会持续跟踪，并将视情况 | | | | 适时调整对美反制措施，同时愿在即将举行的第六轮中美经贸磋商中与美方坦诚沟 | | | 偏多震荡 | 通。美豆市场对美加征关税担忧有所降温。美盘回暖，以及豆粕主力价格已经跌至 | | ★ | | | | | | 历史现货价格低位，叠加港口通关题材提振，国内豆粕昨日大幅收涨。但由于实际 | | | | 通关时间调整有限，提振作用难以持续。后续仍需关注南美大豆产量及质量情况能 | | | | 否带来更多的提振，关注美生柴 3 月初最终政策内容情况。 | | | 短期震荡 | 春节节后市场逐步复工，菜粕报价虽已陆续恢复，但受现货可售货源偏紧、进口菜 | | 菜粕 | | 粕多以 3-5 月远月报价为主，缺乏可即时成交的现货货源支撑，市场整体成交持续 | | ★ | | 清淡。库存供应偏低暂限制菜粕下调空间，叠加 3 月 9 日加拿大菜籽反倾销 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求同比仍然较弱，铁水产量偏高，钢材整体供需偏宽松。同时原料端供应较高， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 钢材成本有下行驱动。华北限产、"沪七条"等带来政策提振，但在弱现实压制下，中 | | | | 期料维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存绝对水平偏高，供需变化符合季节性特征，基差在平水 | | | 谨慎看空 | 附近波动。华北限产、"沪七条"等带来政策提振，但弱现实仍对行情形成压制，中期 | | ★ | | 维持区间运行。 | | | | 春节长假期间进口铁矿石远期现货市场的整体活跃度较弱，外矿发货明显回升，铁水继 | | 铁矿石 | | 续增加，港口库存积累，钢厂消耗库存为主。对于节后的市场，目前的价格处于相对的 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 低位，节后的价格可能会随着钢厂的补库需求而有所支撑，短期内的价格可能会有所走 | | | | 强，但是向上的空间则较为有限。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 焦企利润明显改善，短期焦企开工持稳。从需求来看，铁水产量回升放缓，下游维持 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，油价震荡偏强，关注周四美伊谈判进展。地缘：地缘政治 主导油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核心驱动： | | 原油 | 谨慎看多 | 供给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+将于 4 | | ★ | | 月继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价攀升，成本端利好，液化气震荡偏强。成本端油价短期受地缘 | | LPG | 谨慎看多 | 扰动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好；供需双增，商品量与下游化工开 | | ★ | | 工率均上升；库存端偏利空，港口库存连续上升。 | | L | | 节后石化累库幅度符合季节性规律，基差月差走强。部分装置陆续回归， | | | 反弹 | 预计本周产量增加。短期供需驱动不足，跟随成本端口波动为主。 | | ★ | | | | | | 节后现货库存暂未更新，盘面跟随成本波动为主，华东基差显著走弱。丙 | | PP | 反弹 | 烯、 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | 12 2 | 200 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | | August And And States of the | 11 100 Lad HA | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 国内假日期间事件复杂：美国关税反复、伊朗局势变化，另外日本政府或给资本市 | | | 多单持有 | 场带来潜在动荡。黄金大涨，今日开盘国内市场将补涨。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不 | | ★ | | 确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银光伏、新能源汽车及 AI 等新兴领域推动其工业需求占比攀升至近 60%，成为需 | | 白银 | 谨慎追高 | 求增长的核心引擎；全球流动性宽松强化了其与黄金联动的避险金融属性。短期参 | | ★ | | 与难度大，关注风险报偿比。 | | 铜 | | 特朗普 10%关税生效，美联储官员放鹰，伊朗局势紧张，国内 LPR 按兵不动，宏观 | | | 回调试多 | 情绪多空交织。随着金三银四消费旺季和国内两会临近，铜整体趋势偏强， ...