| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 键成本支撑。本周最新中美谈判结果出炉，维持原关税率，并再展期 90 天。成本 | | | | 气候中心中性预期，且美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，预计将 持续至 9 月底，8 月累库速度较 7 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 支撑预期下，豆粕价格下档存在支持。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑的多 | | | | 空因素交织作用下，本周豆粕去库，在无新指引下，暂维持偏多反弹走势，但波幅 | | | | 较往日会大有收敛，向上空间有限。关注下周 USDA 月度供需报告。主力【2990， | | | | 3050】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽少部分地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国 | | | | 内市场，目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较 | | | | 高水平。7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧 | | | | 作加籽的强势。对菜粕价格构成较强支持，但不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the Fed may cut interest rates more than twice with a magnitude greater than 50bp, and the probability of stagflation in the US is increasing. Short - term, the market rebounds, and long - term, strategic allocation of gold is recommended [1]. - For silver, the future US interest rate cut expectations and treasury bond issuance support commodities. Its fundamentals change little, with strong industrial demand and limited supply increase, so it has a long - term upward trend [1]. - For copper, due to weak US economic data and increased Fed interest rate cut expectations, and a large increase in LME copper inventory, short - term, wait for a full correction to try long, and long - term, it is still optimistic about copper [1]. - For zinc, with loose zinc ore supply, increased processing fees, and over - expected zinc ingot production in July, along with a demand off - season, short - term, hold previous short positions and take partial profits, and long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so look for opportunities to short at high prices [1]. - For lead, with new production capacity coming online, enterprises resuming production, and relatively high social inventory, the lead price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For tin, with the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar and inventory accumulation during the consumption off - season, the tin price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For aluminum, with high - level overseas imported bauxite, inventory accumulation, and weak downstream processing industry, the aluminum price continues to be under pressure [1]. - For nickel, with weak overseas nickel ore prices, slow - down of stainless steel production cuts, and inventory accumulation, the nickel price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For industrial silicon, supply is increasing, demand is stable overall, and it is short - term strengthened by sentiment [1]. - For polysilicon, the "sales price not lower than cost" supports the market, but the expected resumption of production in August may increase the surplus, facing pressure near the previous high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, total inventory has decreased after 8 weeks of accumulation, and there is an upward driving force for the price under the expectation of inventory reduction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review US data is weak, interest rate cut expectations rise, trade wars are repeated, and the Fed's objectivity is questioned, leading to a rise in the gold price [2]. Basic Logic Trump criticizes Powell for late interest rate cuts, there are uncertainties in the EU - US trade agreement, US data is below expectations, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September is high, with a possible 50 - basis - point cut if data worsens. Short - term tariff risks subside, but long - term, the debt issuance process accelerates, central banks buy gold, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing remains unchanged, so the long - bull logic of gold remains [3]. Strategy Recommendation The gold price rebounds, with clear support around 770 in the short - term. Silver fluctuates and rebounds in the short - term, with a trading range of 9000 - 9300. Both fundamental logic and market trends support long - term long positions [4]. Copper Market Review The Shanghai copper price tests the 78,000 - yuan mark again [7]. Industry Logic Recently, there have been continuous disturbances in copper concentrate supply, and the processing fee TC is - 42.5 dollars/ton. There is a co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. In July, the domestic copper smelting start - up rate was 88.19%, and the electrolytic copper output increased significantly. Short - term, domestic spot circulation is tight, but consumption is in the off - season and downstream demand is weak. After the US copper product tariff is implemented, domestic copper export demand will be under pressure, and the back - flow of COMEX copper inventory to LME's US warehouses has led to a large increase in LME copper inventory [7]. Strategy Recommendation Due to weak US economic data, increased Fed interest rate cut expectations, and a 14,000 - ton increase in LME copper inventory, the London copper price weakens and drives the Shanghai copper price down. Short - term, wait for copper to fully correct and try long near 77,500. Long - term, the global copper mine shortage is difficult to ease, and copper is a strategic resource, so it is long - term bullish. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [77,000, 79,000], and the London copper price in the range of [9550, 9750] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc Market Review The Shanghai zinc price fluctuates at a low level [10]. Industry Logic In 2025, zinc ore supply is loose. In July, the domestic refined zinc output increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to continue to increase in August. Zinc ore processing fees are rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is high. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, floods, and the traditional consumption off - season, enterprise start - up rates are weak [10]. Strategy Recommendation With loose zinc ore supply, increased processing fees, over - expected refined zinc production in July, and a demand off - season, hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so look for opportunities to short at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [21,800, 22,600], and the London zinc price in the range of [2650, 2850] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum Market Review The aluminum price is under pressure, and the alumina price rebounds and then falls [13]. Industry Logic For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - sentiment eases. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate decreased, and the demand is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, the import volume is high, the port inventory increases, the domestic production capacity is approaching 9000 tons, and the supply - demand is in a loose pattern. The electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory accumulates again [14]. Strategy Recommendation Short - term, look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the inventory accumulation progress in the off - season, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of [20,000 - 20,700] [15]. Nickel Market Review The nickel price has weak rebounds, and the stainless steel price faces pressure when rebounding [17]. Industry Logic Overseas, the macro - environment eases. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines continues to decline, NPI smelters face cost inversion and losses, and the domestic nickel supply - demand situation improves limitedly, with inventory accumulating. For stainless steel, the production cut intensity weakens, and inventory pressure reappears in the off - season. Although the overall inventory has decreased, the terminal consumption is in the off - season, and there is still a supply - demand surplus [18]. Strategy Recommendation Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to downstream inventory changes, and the main nickel contract is expected to operate in the range of [118,000 - 121,000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review The main contract LC2511 increases in position and decreases in price, completing the contract change, with a decline of more than 2% [21]. Industry Logic The fundamentals improve marginally. The total inventory stops accumulating after 8 weeks, and the inventory starts to transfer from upstream to intermediate links due to the resonance rise of futures and spot prices. Domestic production decreases after 9 weeks of increase. In July, the sales volume of new - energy vehicles declines year - on - year, and only the energy - storage market has some growth. The compliance risk of lithium mine mining licenses in Jiangxi becomes the focus of the lithium carbonate game, and the renewal of leading enterprises' mining licenses will have a great impact on the market. In August, the production plan of cathode material factories increases, and the supply - demand situation may improve [22]. Strategy Recommendation There is still speculation about supply, so try long on dips in the range of [66,500 - 70,500] [23].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 供需方面，螺纹产量基本持平，需求环比回落，库存有所上升。铁水产量 | | | | 环比略降，绝对水平仍高。基本面体现淡季特征，市场情绪逐渐降温，后 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 期行情或切换产业逻辑，中期或有回调，短期在原料限产等消息支撑下或 | | | | 有反弹。【3190，3250】 | | | | 热卷产量、表需小幅回升，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 出口利润回落明显，后期出口或受一定影响。市场情绪总体降温，中期价 | | | | 格中枢或下移，短期在原料限产等消息支撑下或有反弹。【3420，3470】 | | | | 基本面看，铁水产量再降，供给端发货明显减量，到货恢复性增加。港口 | | 铁矿石 | 短多参与 | 去库，钢厂库存增加。基本面中性偏强，反内卷交易告一段落，基本面主 | | | | 导下，矿价坚挺。【770,810】 | | | | 市场整体情绪有所降温，但焦煤限产等消息仍然会对盘面形成阶段性影响。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most varieties are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", while some are rated as "Bearish" [1][2] Core Views - The supply surplus pressure of crude oil is rising, and the oil price is falling [1][3] - LPG follows the decline of oil price [1][9] - For L, the number of restarted devices is increasing, and it is cautiously bearish [1][15] - PP has weak supply and demand, and short positions should be held [1][22] - PVC's trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and it is cautiously bearish [1][29] - PX has a tight supply - demand balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news at home and abroad, and it is cautiously bearish [1][35] - PTA has a tight supply - demand balance expected to be loose, and it is cautiously bearish [1][39] - MEG has a tight supply - demand balance, but the macro - sentiment has faded, and it is cautiously bearish [1][43] - The spot price of glass is lowered, and the futures price continues to correct [1][47] - The inventory of soda ash turns from decreasing to increasing, and the futures price center falls [1][52] - The registered warehouse receipts of caustic soda increase, and the futures price center moves down [1][57] - Methanol's supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose, and there is no unexpected news, and it is cautiously bearish [1][62] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 1.54%, Brent down 1.31%, and SC down 2.14% [5] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the peak season is in the second half. The oil price center still has room to decline, and the key support level is around $60 [6] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. US crude oil production increased in May. Demand in Shandong independent refineries decreased. US commercial crude oil and strategic reserve increased, while gasoline inventory decreased and distillate inventory increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [500 - 515] [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 4, the PG main contract closed at 3,921 yuan/ton, down 1.66% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price fell, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price. The supply increased slightly, and the demand from downstream industries was mixed. The inventory situation was complex [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [3800 - 3900] [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,279 yuan/ton, and the North China basis was - 89 yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Most devices have restarted, and the supply pressure has increased. The downstream is in the off - season, and the restocking power is insufficient [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [20] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,074 yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 6 yuan/ton [24] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak. The inventory of polyolefin petrochemicals of two major companies has risen, and the de - stocking pressure still exists. The production capacity will be released in the third quarter [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread [26] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,981 yuan/ton, and the Changzhou basis was - 121 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support has improved, but the supply will increase in August due to less maintenance and new capacity release. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory will continue to accumulate [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [32] PX - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton [36] - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is decreasing but still high. There is no unexpected bullish news at home and abroad [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions, sell put options, and pay attention to buying opportunities during callbacks. Pay attention to the range of PX [6700 - 6810] [38] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton [40] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is expected to increase due to new device production. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand balance in August is expected to be loose [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell put options, and pay attention to the opportunity to widen the processing margin. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4730] [42] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrival and import volumes are still low. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is low [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell put options, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of EG [4360 - 4420] [46] Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market price was lowered, and the futures price center moved down [49] - **Basic Logic**: There is no unexpected policy in the Politburo meeting, and the manufacturing PMI has declined. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is structurally differentiated, and the inventory has decreased mainly due to transfer [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1050 - 1100] [51] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - soda ash spot price was lowered, and the futures price was differentiated [54] - **Basic Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down, and short - selling funds have increased. Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mostly rigid, and inventory has started to increase again [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait patiently for the price to correct [55] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The flake caustic soda spot price was raised, and the futures price was differentiated [59] - **Basic Logic**: Supply decreased due to summer maintenance, and some downstream alumina plants resumed production. Inventory is relatively high year - on - year, and the macro - policy expectation has cooled down [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided [61] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 yuan/ton [62] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices are restarting or increasing loads, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Demand is good but expected to weaken. Inventory is accumulating [63] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell call options under low - volatility conditions, and conduct a MA9 - 1 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of MA [2365 - 2395] [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans and Meal Products**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to experience large - range oscillations. For soybean meal, the weak fundamentals and the cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs lead to this situation. For rapeseed meal, factors such as the recovery of global rapeseed production, import tariffs, and the substitution effect of soybean meal contribute to the multi - empty factor entanglement [1][3][7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a short - term adjustment phase. Although the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for the consumption of the palm oil market, the possible inventory accumulation in July in Malaysia may suppress short - term prices [1][8][9]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. The new cotton growth in the US is still good despite a slight decline in the excellent - good rate. In China, the increase in sown area and yield, along with the fast commercial de - stocking and the recovery of demand, limit the downside space before the new cotton is launched [1][11][12]. - **Red Dates**: It is also recommended to be cautiously bullish. There are still large differences in the market regarding the reduction in production, and high inventory restricts the rebound height. However, there are still risks of speculation [1][15][16]. - **Hogs**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. The short - term acceleration of the slaughter rhythm may lead to price drops, but the speculation of secondary fattening provides some support. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the capacity reduction [1][18][19]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal closed at 3024 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2994.29 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The national average soybean crushing profit increased by 20.70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 808.5 million tons, an increase of 10.60 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 645.59 million tons, an increase of 3.35 million tons. The soybean meal inventory was 104.31 million tons, an increase of 4.47 million tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it maintains a slightly bullish rebound trend, but the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report next week [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2678 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2667.89 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit increased by 5.21 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 25, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 13.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions was 66.54 million tons, a decrease of 1.33 million tons [7]. - **Market Outlook**: It is a large - range market under the entanglement of multi - empty factors. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed planting weather in Canada, the improvement of Sino - Canadian relations, and the follow - up progress of Sino - Australian relations [1][7]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil closed at 8838 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The national average price was 8860 yuan/ton, down 1.45%. The national daily trading volume was 1650 contracts, an increase of 1150 contracts [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 25, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 61.55 million tons, an increase of 2.41 million tons from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term price may be suppressed due to possible inventory accumulation in July in Malaysia. Be cautious about chasing up, and pay attention to the buying situation of domestic palm oil in the past three months and beware of the risk of cornering the market [1][8][9]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market Data**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, closed at 13675 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 15172 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The main contract of ICE cotton closed at 66.62 cents/pound, up 0.39% [10][11]. - **Growth and Inventory**: In the US, the non - drought rate in the cotton - growing area decreased by 4% to 89%, and the excellent - good rate decreased by 2% to 55%. In China, the new cotton yield is expected to increase to over 740 million tons. The commercial inventory decreased to 215.71 million tons [11][12]. - **Market Outlook**: The US cotton may show a weak oscillation. In China, before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on previous short positions and consider cautiously going long at low prices [1][12][13]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Market Data**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, closed at 10860 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The arrival volume at Guangdong Ruyifang was 5 trucks, an increase of 4 trucks [14]. - **Production and Inventory**: The new - season red dates are in the fruit - setting period. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, with a decrease of 20 - 25% compared to 2024. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons [15]. - **Market Outlook**: There are still large differences in the market regarding the reduction in production, and high inventory restricts the rebound height. This week, it is recommended to cautiously try to go long [1][15][16]. 3.6 Hogs - **Market Data**: The main contract of hogs, Lh2509, closed at 13940 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live hogs was 14340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The national sample enterprise's monthly pig inventory was 3719.93 million tons, an increase of 0.31%. The monthly pig slaughter volume was 1125.59 million tons, an increase of 1.51%. The monthly inventory of breeding sows was 4043 million tons, an increase of 0.02% [17]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the price may be under pressure, but there is support from secondary fattening. In the medium and long term, pay attention to capacity reduction. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in the near - month contracts and consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices [1][18][19].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 观望 | 供需方面，螺纹产量基本持平，需求环比回落，库存有所上升。铁水产量 | | 螺纹钢 | | 环比略降，绝对水平仍高。基本面体现淡季特征，市场情绪逐渐降温，价 | | | | 格中枢下移，后期行情或切换产业逻辑，中期或有回调，短期注意反复可 | | | | 能。【3170，3230】 | | 热卷 | 观望 | 热卷产量、表需小幅回升，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷 | | | | 出口利润回落明显，后期出口或受一定影响。市场失望总体降温，中期价 | | | | 格中枢或下移。【3400，3460】 | | | 空单离 | 基本面看，铁水产量再降，供给端发货明显减量，到货恢复性增加。港口 | | 铁矿石 | 场，短多 | 去库，钢厂库存增加。基本面中性偏强，反内卷交易告一段落，基本面主 | | | 参与 | 导下，矿价坚挺。【780，820】 | | | 观望 | | | | | 会议未释放刺激政策自己反内卷的增量信息，市场情绪有所降温。焦炭现 货自前期低点涨幅落后于期货，现货连续提涨。焦企利润 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美联储官员表示，未来降息次数可能多于两次，另外数据显示美国滞涨概率增加， | | 黄金 | 谨慎做多 | 短期盘面反弹。中长期来看，多国货币政策宽松预期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资 | | | | 产相关性较低，长期黄金继续战略配置。【770-794】 | | | | 短期事件影响情绪正砸回温，白银基本面变化不大，各国宽财政款货币刺激，工业 | | 白银 | 企稳试多 | 需求坚挺，长期向上趋势不变。短期关注调整结束之后的做多机会。【8800-9145】 | | | | 美非农数据爆冷，美联储 9 月降息预期回升，中美制造业 PMI 均低于荣枯线。需求 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 淡季叠加库存累库，铜反弹力度偏弱，上方空间受限，短期建议等待铜充分回调， | | | 背靠 | 77500-78000 逢低试多，中长期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【77500，79500】 | | | | 锌矿供应宽松，加工费继续上修，7 月锌锭产量超预期，需求淡季，中下游开工走 | | 锌 | 反弹沽空 | 弱，建议 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most products are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, urea, propylene [1][2] - Some products are rated as "Bearish", such as methanol and asphalt [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For most products, the market is facing various pressures such as supply increase, weak demand, and lack of macro - positive factors, leading to a downward or cautious outlook [1][2] - For example, in the case of crude oil, OPEC+ production increase and the entry into the second half of the peak season put pressure on oil prices [3][6] Group 3: Summaries by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On August 1, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 2.79%, Brent dropped 2.83%, and SC dropped 0.73% [5] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and the peak season is in the second half, so the oil price center may decline [6] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ will increase production by 54.7 million barrels per day in September, and US crude oil production in May increased by 2.4 million barrels per day. US commercial crude oil and strategic crude oil reserves increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [505 - 520] [8] LPG - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the PG main contract closed at 3987 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price fell, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price. Although the fundamentals are okay, the cost - end is the main drag [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of PG [3850 - 3950] [13] L - **Market Performance**: L2509 contract closed at 7317 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan). The North China basis was - 97 (down 7) [17] - **Basic Logic**: The market returns to weak fundamentals. Most devices restarted, increasing supply pressure. Social inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, and industrial customers can sell hedging [19] PP - **Market Performance**: PP2509 closed at 6098 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the East China basis was 19 (up 13) [24] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. New production capacity will be released in the third quarter, and downstream replenishment is insufficient [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V2601 closed at 5015 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan), and the Changzhou basis was - 95 (down 4) [31] - **Basic Logic**: The market returns to weak fundamentals. New devices are put into operation, and demand is in the off - season. Social inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of V [4900 - 5100] [32] PX - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6812 yuan/ton (down 116 yuan) [36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory is high, and there is no macro - positive factor recently [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, sell call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of PX [6720 - 6840] [38] PTA - **Market Performance**: On August 1, PTA in East China was 4740 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan); TA09 closed at 4744 yuan/ton (down 64 yuan) [40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the tight - balance situation in August is expected to ease [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, sell call options, and pay attention to the possibility of expanding the processing fee. Pay attention to the range of TA [4720 - 4800] [42] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4480 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan); EG09 closed at 4405 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory is low [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions (partially reduce), sell call options, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of EG [4340 - 4410] [46] Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market price decreased, and the futures price center moved down [49] - **Basic Logic**: There is no super - expected policy in the Politburo meeting, and the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line. Inventory is mainly transferred, not consumed by the terminal market [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1070 - 1130] [51] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was stable, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [54] - **Basic Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down, and the supply - demand surplus pattern has not improved significantly. Warehouse receipts and forecasts increase, and industrial hedging exerts pressure [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait patiently for the pullback to be in place [55] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price decreased, and the futures price closed down. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [59] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device maintenance led to a decline in industry start - up. Downstream alumina plants resumed production, but inventory is high year - on - year [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided in the text Methanol - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2385 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and the main 09 contract closed at 2393 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [62] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign devices resumed production, increasing supply pressure. Demand is expected to weaken, and social inventory is accumulating [63] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of MA [2350 - 2400] [64] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and demand decreases, and the inventory is accumulating [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of BU [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are loose, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 1 - 2 reverse spread, and go long on the PP processing fee on the futures market [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，螺纹产量基本持平，需求环比回落，库存有所上升。铁水产量 | | | | 环比略降，绝对水平仍高。基本面体现淡季特征，市场情绪逐渐降温，价 | | | | 格中枢下移，后期行情或切换产业逻辑，中期或有回调，短期注意反复可 | | | | 能。【3150，3220】 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量、表需小幅回升，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷 | | | | 出口利润回落明显，后期出口或受一定影响。市场失望总体降温，中期价 | | | | 格中枢或下移。【3350，3420】 | | 铁矿石 | 空单持有 | 基本面看，铁水产量再降，供给端后续发到货预计有增量。港口去库，钢 厂库存增加。基本面中性偏弱，政治局会议阶段性不及预期，黑色商品价 | | | | 格整体有回调压力。【760，810】 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 会议未释放刺激政策自己反内卷的增量信息，市场情绪有所降温。焦炭现 | | | | 货自前期低点涨幅落后于期货，现货连续提涨。焦企利润仍不佳，生 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and test long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Resistance on rallies [1] - Tin: Resistance on rallies [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously long [1] 2. Core Views - The weak US data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk of stagflation, leading to an inflow of safe - haven funds and a significant increase in gold prices. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [3][4]. - For copper, short - term supply - demand contradictions are due to seasonal factors and inventory pressure, while long - term contradictions lie in demand uncertainty and potential demand growth. After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded [8][9]. - Zinc supply is abundant, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions and seize opportunities to short on rallies [10][12]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to downstream weakness and inventory accumulation [13][15]. - Nickel prices face pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, and stainless steel also faces over - supply in the off - season [17][19]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and with potential supply risks and improved demand, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation reappeared. Safe - haven funds flowed in, causing a significant increase in gold prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts; "reciprocal tariffs" are about to take effect; global gold demand is growing strongly. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 770 for gold in the short term. For silver, it has fallen back to the previous range, and it is recommended to enter long positions after stabilization [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are related to seasonal factors and inventory pressure. Medium - term contradictions are the coexistence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. Long - term contradictions are between demand uncertainty and potential demand growth [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and be bullish on copper in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai copper [77500, 79500] and LME copper [9650, 9850] [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly [11]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, and demand is weak during the off - season [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Seize opportunities to short on rallies in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22600] and LME zinc [2650, 2850] [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina also showed a downward trend [14]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have decreased, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20700] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then fell [18]. - **Industry Logic**: Nickel supply - demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel has over - supply issues in the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 121000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for five consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a gain of over 1% [22]. - **Industry Logic**: The inventory has stopped increasing, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The compliance risk of mining licenses is a key factor [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are still expectations of supply speculation. It is recommended to go long on dips in the range of [68000 - 71500] [24].