Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7] Report's Core Views - The core driver of the energy and chemical industry is the imbalance between supply and demand, with most products facing supply - side pressure and some having weak demand [2][4][7]. - Crude oil is pressured by off - season supply surplus, and most downstream products are affected by the trend of crude oil prices [2][10]. - Some products have low valuations, but the fundamental weakness restricts their upward movement [4][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market situation**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly. WTI rose 0.11%, Brent rose 0.19%, and SC rose 1.26% [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause production expansion in the first quarter of next year. Demand in India increased in September, and US commercial crude inventories decreased in the week ending October 24 [10][11]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing short positions, and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the range of 460 - 475 yuan/barrel for SC [12]. LPG - **Market situation**: On November 3, the PG main contract closed at 4305 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end is bearish as the price of crude oil has corrected. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has shown some resilience. Port inventory has increased, while refinery inventory has decreased [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton [17]. L - **Market situation**: The L01 contract closed at 7009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, and cost support is weakening. Supply is expected to remain loose due to seasonal restart of domestic plants and expected increase in imports. Demand during the peak season lacks restocking motivation [21]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can sell at high prices. Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton [21]. PP - **Market situation**: The PP01 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [23]. - **Fundamentals**: Mid - and upstream inventories are at a high level compared to the same period, and there is high pressure to destock. Oil - based cost support is insufficient [25]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can sell at high prices. Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton [25]. PVC - **Market situation**: The V01 contract closed at 4746 yuan/ton, up 0.8% [27]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of calcium carbide has fallen, weakening cost support. Social inventory is stable, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is continuously compressed. The market has a high - inventory and high - warrant structure [29]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can hedge at high prices. Be cautious when short - chasing. Focus on the range of 4550 - 4700 yuan/ton [29]. PX - **Market situation**: Supply - side domestic plants have reduced production while overseas plants have increased production. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken [30]. - **Fundamentals**: PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high this year. Cost - end crude oil has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [30]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices, and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of 6570 - 6660 yuan/ton [31]. PTA - **Market situation**: The processing fee is low. New plants have been put into operation recently, but future plant maintenance is expected to increase, relieving supply - side pressure [33]. - **Fundamentals**: Downstream demand has improved slightly, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. Cost - end crude oil is under long - term pressure [33]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of 4520 - 4600 yuan/ton [34]. MEG - **Market situation**: Both domestic and overseas plants have increased production. There is an expectation of increased supply pressure [36]. - **Fundamentals**: Terminal consumption has improved, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers [36]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of 3910 - 3980 yuan/ton [37]. Methanol - **Market situation**: High inventory restricts the rebound of spot prices. Supply - side domestic plants have increased production, while overseas plants have slightly reduced production [40]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand is average, and cost support is weakly stable. The overall fundamental situation remains weak [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices and consider the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the range of 2090 - 2150 yuan/ton [42]. Urea - **Market situation**: Small - particle urea spot prices have declined. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance plants resume production [44]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand has improved slightly, but winter agricultural demand and export benefits are limited. The domestic fundamental situation remains loose [44]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long - term. Focus on the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton [46]. Natural Gas - **Market situation**: On November 3, the NG main contract closed at $4.369 per million British thermal units, up 3.90% [49]. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and the demand side is supported by the arrival of the consumption peak season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of $4.172 - $4.300 per million British thermal units [51]. Asphalt - **Market situation**: On November 3, the BU main contract closed at 3244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [54]. - **Fundamentals**: The price is mainly affected by crude oil. Cost support has decreased, and supply and demand have both declined in October [55]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be lightly held. Focus on the range of 3250 - 3350 yuan/ton [56]. Glass - **Market situation**: The daily melting volume has increased slightly, and the fundamental situation remains loose [60]. - **Fundamentals**: Factory inventory is slowly decreasing but remains high. Demand is weak due to the decline in real - estate prices [60]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be bearish on medium - to - long - term rebounds. Focus on the range of 1060 - 1110 yuan/ton [60]. Soda Ash - **Market situation**: Factory inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute level remains high [64]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand is mostly rigid, and supply remains loose during the high - production cycle [64]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can sell at high prices. The market is expected to be bearish on rebounds. Focus on the range of 1170 - 1220 yuan/ton [64].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish [1] - Silver: Long - term bullish [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Short - term rebound, long - term sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Short - term rebound [1] - Tin: Short - term rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Short - term strong [1] - Nickel: Short - term weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Short - term rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait for stabilization [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US government shutdown, weak economic data, and Fed's internal divergence affect the precious metals market. Gold and silver are recommended for long - term value allocation, and short - to medium - term entry opportunities are available [1][3][4] - For copper, although there are short - term supply and demand disturbances, the long - term outlook remains positive, and short - term dips can be used to buy [1][6][7] - Zinc shows a short - term rebound but a long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease situation, so it is advisable to sell on rallies [1][9][10] - Aluminum is in a transition from peak to off - peak season, with a short - term strong trend, and short - term profit - taking on rallies is recommended [1][11][13][14] - Nickel is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weakening downstream demand, and rebound selling is recommended [1][15][17] - Lithium carbonate has a marginal improvement in fundamentals but is affected by short - term news. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize [1][18][20][21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Short - term price fluctuations are narrow, and attention is paid to US data and government shutdown [2] - **Basic Logic**: Weak US economic data, continuous government shutdown, internal Fed divergence, and long - term bullish factors for gold such as global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - to medium - term entry, with strong support at 910 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver, and hold long - term value - allocation positions [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai and London copper are oscillating at high levels [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Chilean copper production decline, expected reduction in domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter, and weakening demand in the off - season [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, buy on dips near 84500 - 85500, hold long - term strategic positions, and use options for hedging in the industry [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: London zinc rose nearly 2%, and Shanghai zinc followed slightly [8][9] - **Industrial Logic**: New zinc production in Xinjiang, lower zinc concentrate processing fees, and expected reduction in domestic zinc production in November [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Observe the breakthrough of the 22800 resistance level in the short term, and sell on rallies in the long term [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices should be chased with caution, and alumina is relatively weak [12] - **Industrial Logic**: Weakening Fed's year - end rate - cut expectation, high domestic electrolytic aluminum production, and weakening demand [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take short - term profits on rallies and pay attention to the开工 rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel has fallen significantly [16] - **Industrial Logic**: Accumulation of nickel inventory at home and abroad, and weakening downstream demand for stainless steel [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds and pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened low and fluctuated widely, closing slightly lower [19] - **Industrial Logic**: Marginal improvement in fundamentals with continuous inventory reduction, but short - term negative impact from news [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for the market to stabilize in the range of 81600 - 83000 [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short - term investment ratings for different varieties include: short - term decline for palm oil and rapeseed oil; short - term adjustment for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil; and a cautious bearish view on jujubes, with a warning of a potential short - term rebound for live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term fluctuations. Brazilian rainfall is expected to recover in the next 15 days. The current tariff situation has a slight adjustment, and the cost of domestic soybean meal has some support. The main contract is in a large - range market below the previous high. After a short - term rebound, it needs to be sorted out. Be cautious about chasing long positions [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term fluctuations. High port inventory and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports the far - month contracts. Recently, it has rebounded following soybean meal. Be cautious about chasing long positions [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. It has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand, with expected continuous inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October and November. Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 are negative factors. Hold existing short positions with caution [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term adjustment. The harvest of US soybeans and the lack of progress in US biodiesel policy provide no positive support. Domestic soybean oil inventory is higher than the five - year average, and supply is sufficient in the short term. Follow palm oil's decline. Be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term decline. Low oil mill operating rates, market's reluctance to sell and price - holding mentality, and the consumption peak season are offset by the lack of positive drivers from the Sino - Canadian meeting. The market is falling due to risk aversion [1] - **Cotton**: Weak and volatile. New cotton from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries increases supply pressure. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, India's MSP provides some support. Domestically, new cotton is about to be harvested, inventory has recovered, and downstream demand is weak. There is resistance to upward movement [1] - **Jujubes**: Cautiously bearish. Large - scale harvesting is coming, and the market is highly volatile due to capital. The future fundamentals are expected to be loose. Short - term, suggest reducing short positions as the premium is being repaired [1] - **Live Pigs**: Be wary of short - term rebounds. The supply pressure in December is expected to increase due to the delayed supply from second - fattening in October. The demand is gradually stabilizing. On the market, it is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and beware of the rebound risk of the 01 contract [1] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, a decrease of 102,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons from last week. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal were 8.02 days, an increase of 0.06 days from October 24 [3] - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal was 3,026 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,103.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day [2] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 31, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 7,100 tons, unchanged from last week; the unexecuted contracts were 7,100 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week [5] - **Market Situation**: The global rapeseed production has recovered this year. In China, rapeseed meal is in a destocking state, but the demand is in the off - season due to the end of the aquaculture season [5] Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of October 31, 2025, the national key area's commercial inventory of palm oil was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons from last week. The production in Malaysia from October 1 - 31 increased by 5.55% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume increased by 5.19% [8] - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil was 8,664 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day. The national average price was 8,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day [6] Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested, and precipitation in major cotton - growing areas will decrease in early November. In India, the MSP acquisition has been delayed due to heavy rainfall, and the daily new cotton listing volume is about 12,000 tons. As of mid - October, the new cotton listing volume in Pakistan was 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [9] - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic new cotton picking progress is 87.1%, the inspection volume exceeds 1.93 million tons, and the sales progress is 14.2%. The Xinjiang mainstream machine - picked seed cotton price has risen to 6.32 yuan/kg, and the cumulative average price of lint cotton has increased to around 14,500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand has not changed much [10] Jujubes - **Production Area Situation**: Large - scale harvesting is expected. Merchants in Xinjiang are actively purchasing, and the final production reduction situation remains to be seen. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased to 9,348 tons, a month - on - month increase of 245 tons [14] - **Sales Area Situation**: Large - scale arrivals have not started yet. The price of sporadic goods is significantly higher than the same - grade goods in the same period last year. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and consumption has not started significantly [14] Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The national sample enterprise's live pig inventory in October was 38.3901 million, a 1.5% increase from the previous month; the monthly slaughter volume was 10.6976 million heads, a 4.29% decrease from the previous month. The national average price of live pigs was 12,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day [16] - **Market Situation**: In October, large - scale enterprises accelerated slaughter, and the planned slaughter volume in November decreased by 2.54% compared to the actual slaughter volume in October. The demand of downstream slaughtering has increased, and the inventory situation has stabilized [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][7] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][10] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][13] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish [1][17] Core Views of the Report - For rebar, weekly production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory continued to decline, with weak supply and demand in the off - season, and iron water production decreased significantly, and mid - term it will run in a range with potential short - term weakness [1][4][5] - For hot rolled coil, both apparent demand and production recovered, inventory decreased slightly but remained higher than the same period in previous years, and mid - term it will run in a range with potential short - term correction [1][4][5] - For iron ore, iron water production decreased significantly this week due to environmental protection and maintenance, with mills reducing inventory and ports accumulating inventory, and short - term ore prices will fluctuate weakly [1][6][7] - For coke, the second round of price increases has fully landed, and the expectation of the third round is strengthening. Although iron water production has declined, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and prices will remain strong [1][9][10] - For coking coal, coal mine production and operating rates decreased slightly, supply may tighten in November, and although demand weakened marginally, the supply - demand pattern is still healthy, with prices remaining strong [1][12][13] - For manganese silicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, inventory increased, and short - term cost provides some support, but overall it's bearish [1][16][17] - For ferrosilicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, inventory increased significantly, and it's bearish due to the loose fundamentals and potential upward pressure on coal prices [1][16][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Variety View**: Rebar shows weak supply - demand in the off - season with iron water production decline, and hot rolled coil has recovered demand and production but high inventory [4] - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of rebar and hot rolled coil mostly declined, and there were changes in basis, futures spreads, and other indicators [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar has limited upward and downward drivers, running in a mid - term range with potential short - term weakness; hot rolled coil runs in a mid - term range with potential short - term correction [5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: This week, iron water production decreased significantly due to environmental protection and maintenance, mills reduced inventory, ports accumulated inventory, and external ore arrivals increased significantly, with a neutral - bearish static fundamentals [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, as production cuts and supply increases put pressure on ore prices [7] Coke - **Variety View**: The second round of price increases has fully landed, the third - round expectation is strengthening, and although iron water production has declined, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, with some mills still replenishing inventory [9] - **Market Data**: Futures prices of coke contracts decreased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as inventory and production [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [10] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Coal mine production and operating rates decreased slightly, supply may tighten in November due to over - production checks and political instability in Mongolia, and although demand weakened marginally, the supply - demand pattern is still healthy [12] - **Market Data**: Futures prices of coking coal contracts decreased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as inventory and production [11] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [13] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Variety View**: For manganese silicon, production area supply is high, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory increased; for ferrosilicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory increased significantly [16] - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon had different changes, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production and inventory [15] - **Operation Suggestion**: For manganese silicon, cautiously bearish with short - term cost support; for ferrosilicon, bearish due to loose fundamentals and potential upward pressure on coal prices [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and oil price trends, while natural gas has some upward support due to seasonal demand [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: On October 31, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.68%, Brent up 0.62%, and SC down 0.67% [7][8] - **Basic logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2024. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season [9][10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Market review**: On October 31, the PG main contract closed at 4,301 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [14] - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the cost has declined. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Market review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [18] - **Basic logic**: Cost support has weakened. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand has limited restocking motivation [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Market review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 [24] - **Basic logic**: Spot prices have not kept up with the increase, and the basis has weakened. There is high inventory - removal pressure in the future, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Market review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 [28] - **Basic logic**: Low - valuation support exists, and the loss of a single variety has expanded. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand surplus [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a high contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [30] - **Basic logic**: Supply has domestic reduction and overseas increase. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: Consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the PX range of [6580 - 6680] [31] PTA - **Market review**: TA05 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,536 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,586 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic logic**: Processing fees are low. Supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory build - up in November [33] - **Strategy recommendation**: Exit short positions at low prices and consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the TA range of [4560 - 4650] [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. Supply pressure is expected to rise, and there is an expected inventory build - up in November. Valuation is low, but there is no upward drive [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and consider short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [37] Methanol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [40] - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses spot price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [40] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices and the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2110 - 2190] [42] Urea - **Market review**: UR05 closed at 1,703 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,736 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,625 yuan/ton [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. Valuation is low, and there is a risk of downward movement [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1610 - 1640] [46] Natural Gas - **Market review**: On October 31, the NG main contract closed at 4.205 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 2.69% [49] - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and demand has increased due to the approaching heating season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50] - **Strategy recommendation**: The cooling temperature supports the gas price, but there is upward pressure. Focus on the NG range of [4.050 - 4.250] [51] Asphalt - **Market review**: On October 31, the BU main contract closed at 3,244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [53] - **Basic logic**: The price is affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand have both decreased, and inventory has declined [54] - **Strategy recommendation**: The valuation is high, and supply is sufficient. Short positions can be held lightly. Focus on the BU range of [3250 - 3350] [55] Glass - **Market review**: FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, up 3 [58] - **Basic logic**: There is intense capital gaming. Inventory has increased counter - seasonally, and supply is under pressure due to profitable production processes [59] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously participate. Bullish in the short - term technically, bearish on rebounds in the medium - term. Focus on the FG range of [1080 - 1130] [59] Soda Ash - **Market review**: SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, down 26 [62] - **Basic logic**: It rebounds with the black building materials sector. Inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level. Supply is expected to increase [63] - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should sell at high prices. Hold the long position of the soda - glass spread. Focus on the SA range of [1220 - 1270] [63]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferro - Manganese Silicon**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicon Iron**: Cautiously bearish [1] Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the macro situation has been settled, and the contradictions are limited. Rebar shows a supply - demand double - weak off - season characteristic, and hot - rolled coil inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years. Both have weak driving forces, with rebar potentially weakening in the short - term and hot - rolled coil possibly having a short - term correction [3][4][5] - For iron ore, due to environmental control and losses in some steel mills, iron - making water production has decreased. The static fundamentals are neutral to bullish, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8] - For coke, the second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the third round is on the way. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price remains strong [11] - For coking coal, the supply may be tightened in the future, and the demand has weakened marginally. However, the supply - demand pattern is still relatively healthy, and the price remains strong [14] - For ferro - manganese silicon and silicon iron, the supply is at a high level, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased. They are recommended to be treated bearishly [18][19] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Variety Views - Rebar: Weekly production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory continued to decline, and it conforms to the off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The decline in iron - making water production weakens the support for raw materials. The Sino - US meeting ended with the implementation of tariff mitigation measures [4] - Hot - rolled coil: Both apparent demand and production increased, and the inventory decreased slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years [4] Disk Operation Suggestions - Rebar: The upward and downward driving forces are weak. It will maintain range - bound operation in the medium - term and may face short - term weakness [5] - Hot - rolled coil: The decrease in iron - making water production weakens the demand support for raw materials. It will operate in a range in the medium - term and may have a short - term correction [5] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different degrees of decline; spot prices also had fluctuations; basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads all had corresponding changes [2] Iron Ore Variety Views - This week, iron - making water production decreased significantly due to environmental control in Tangshan and loss - based maintenance in some steel mills. Steel mills reduced inventory, and ports accumulated inventory. There is an expectation that foreign ore shipments will decline from the high level, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bullish [8] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [9] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of iron ore decreased, and spot prices also declined. There were changes in spreads, basis, and other data [6] Coke Variety Views - The second round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, and the third round is coming. The profit of coke enterprises has improved slightly but is still mostly in a loss state. The steel mill inventory is at a medium - low level. Although there is maintenance in Tangshan due to environmental protection, the maintenance time is short. The iron - making water production has declined from the high level, but the short - term shipment of coke enterprises is good, and some steel mills are still replenishing inventory [11] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [12] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of coke declined, and there were corresponding changes in basis, spreads, and other data. In terms of spot prices, there was no change, and there were also fluctuations in weekly data such as production, inventory, and profit [10] Coking Coal Variety Views - Coal mine production and operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month. The supply - side inspection of over - production in November may be strengthened, and the uncertainty of the political situation in Mongolia continues to increase, with the expectation of tightened imports in the future. The iron - making water production has decreased significantly, and the demand has weakened marginally. The current supply - demand pattern is still relatively healthy [14] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [15] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of coking coal declined, and there were changes in basis, spreads, etc. Spot prices remained unchanged, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and operating rate also had corresponding fluctuations [13] Iron Alloys Variety Views - Manganese silicon: The supply in the production area is still at a high level in the same period, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has continued to increase compared with the previous period [18] - Silicon iron: The supply in the production area remains at a high level, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased significantly compared with the previous period. Attention should be paid to the situation of re - warehousing after the cancellation of warehouse receipts [18] Disk Operation Suggestions - Manganese silicon: The price of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price. Cautiously bearish [19] - Silicon iron: The fundamentals of silicon iron have become loose, and there is upward pressure on short - term coal prices. Bearish treatment [19] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron declined, and spot prices also had fluctuations. There were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and operating rate [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term long position [1] - Silver: Long - term long position [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment [1] Core Views - For gold, the long - term support logic remains unchanged due to geopolitical order reshaping and central bank purchases, and short - term entry opportunities exist. For silver, long - term global policy stimulates demand with a continuous supply - demand gap. Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to copper concentrate shortages and green copper demand. Zinc has limited up - and - down space in the short - term and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long - term. Lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure in the short - term. Aluminum prices are relatively strong in the short - term, while lithium carbonate prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [1]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: After risk events landed, the market sentiment was basically released, and gold and silver fluctuated narrowly. Short - term attention should be paid to US data and government shutdown [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The new gold tax policy affects different usage and user groups. The US government shutdown is in a stalemate, which affects Fed policies and market expectations. In the long - term, gold benefits from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Both gold and silver have stopped falling in the short - term. Medium - and short - term entry can be considered, with strong support at 910 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper fluctuated at high levels [7]. - **Industry Logic**: Copper concentrate shortages continue as major mining companies lower production expectations. There is an expected decline in domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter. The domestic smelting industry calls for anti - involution and possible production cuts. Downstream demand shows a pattern of high - price aversion and low - price purchasing [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try long positions on dips near the 84500 - 85500 range. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging can use options for protection, and strict risk control is required. The short - term focus ranges are [84500, 88500] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [10500, 11200] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc fluctuated narrowly [10]. - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the processing fee has dropped due to smelter winter stockpiling. Refined zinc enterprise profits are in a small - scale loss. Zinc ingot production is expected to increase, and consumption is entering the off - season. The overseas LME zinc inventory soft - squeeze risk has eased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc lacks a clear one - sided driving force in the short - term, with limited up - and - down space. In the long - term, it is a short - side allocation in the sector. The focus ranges are [22200, 22800] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2980, 3080] dollars/ton for London zinc [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are cautiously optimistic, while alumina shows a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cuts continue. Domestic production capacity is high, and terminal consumption is transitioning from peak season to off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are affected by the rainy season, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction and possible production cuts [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operating rates. The main operating range is [21000 - 21800] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices are falling back [17]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts continue. Overseas nickel production policies are adjusted, and domestic and overseas nickel inventories are accumulating. The stainless steel market shows a supply - and - demand weak situation, and terminal demand is weakening [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a significant reduction in positions and an enlarged decline at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, with continuous inventory reduction for 11 weeks and an expanding reduction range. Although supply is still growing, there are production declines in some regions. Terminal demand is strong, but the rumored resumption of production has a negative impact on the market [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see until the market stabilizes in the range of [80000 - 82000] [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Oscillation**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Short - term Decline**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Short - term Adjustment**: Soybean Oil [1] - **Short - term Callback**: Cotton [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Red Dates [1] - **Alert to Rebound**: Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term oscillation. Pay attention to Sino - US trade and Brazilian weather. Current tariffs support domestic soybean meal cost and are negative for US soybeans [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term oscillation. Trade policies and high inventory lead to mixed factors. Follow soybean meal trends and focus on Sino - Canadian trade [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. Enter a supply - demand weakening phase, with expected inventory accumulation in October and November. Hold existing short positions cautiously [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term adjustment. Lack of bullish support from US soybeans and biodiesel policies. High domestic inventory. Follow palm oil trends and be cautious about short - selling [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term decline. Low oil mill operating rates, but lack of bullish drivers in the oil market. Pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade [1]. - **Cotton**: Short - term callback. Global supply pressure, but Indian MSP provides some support. Domestic new cotton harvest is almost complete, with increasing inventory and weak demand [1][11]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. Loose fundamentals expected. Reduce short positions as the price approaches the cost. Monitor post - harvest pricing [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Alert to rebound. Supply pressure in Q4, but some second - fattening opportunities. Focus on market supply - demand changes and consider short - selling on rebounds and arbitrage opportunities [1][17]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of October 24, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased by 15.3 tons week - on - week. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory decreased by 17.41 tons, while bean meal inventory increased by 7.84 tons. Feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days increased slightly [3]. - **Market Situation**: Spot prices increased, but procurement sentiment was weak. Supply remained loose, and the basis had limited upside [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of October 24, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was flat, rapeseed meal inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts increased. International rapeseed production is expected to rise [6]. - **Market Situation**: Domestic rapeseed meal is in a destocking phase, but demand is seasonally weak. It follows soybean meal trends due to lack of new drivers [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory**: As of October 24, 2025, national commercial inventory increased by 3.14 tons week - on - week. Malaysian production and export data vary, but inventory is expected to accumulate [7][8]. - **Market Situation**: Enter a supply - demand weakening phase, with Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 policy negatively affecting prices [1][8]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: US new cotton is being harvested, and Indian MSP implementation is delayed. Domestic new cotton harvest is almost complete, and commercial inventory is approaching the same - period level [9][10]. - **Market Situation**: Global supply pressure, but Indian MSP provides support. Domestic demand is weak, and the market has limited upward momentum [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Price and Inventory**: Expected large - scale harvest. Inventory increased as some merchants bought old - season dates. New jujube purchase prices are concentrated in a certain range [13]. - **Market Situation**: Loose fundamentals expected. The market is volatile, and short - term short positions should be reduced [14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price and Inventory**: As of relevant data, inventory increased slightly, and the average slaughter weight was stable. Supply is expected to increase in Q4 [15][16]. - **Market Situation**: Supply pressure is postponed to December. Demand is stabilizing. Be cautious about short - term rebounds and consider trading strategies and arbitrage opportunities [17].

Report Overview - Report Title: 20251031 Cotton Monthly Report: Pay Attention to the Opportunity of First Decline and Then Rise During the Pressure Transmission Period [1] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the increasing supply of cotton from the US and other countries in the Southern Hemisphere is putting pressure on the market. Although Brazil is accelerating its exports, the continuous implementation of India's MSP provides some support for international cotton prices. The ICE market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of [63, 67] [3]. - Domestically, new cotton is expected to be harvested in about a week. After a slight increase in imports, the commercial inventory has recovered to the same level as the previous period, and the pressure on spot circulation is gradually increasing. The price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded recently, raising the average cost of new-season machine-picked lint cotton. On the demand side, the volume and price of downstream demand are still weakening, the enterprise load is seasonally weakening, and enterprises maintain just-in-time replenishment under the condition of few industrial orders. Pay attention to the sales speed and price during the pressure transmission process of inland warehouses to measure the profitability of inland buyers and the relief of the hedging density of all new cotton. During this period, the futures market may show a "first decline and then rise" trend. In terms of strategy, there is some support due to a slight increase in hedging pressure, but there is significant resistance to upward movement under the weak industrial driving force. Pay attention to the opportunity of high selling and low buying in the range of [13300, 13800] [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Factors - **International Macro**: The results of the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced. The US will cancel the 10% so-called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% counter - tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US will also suspend the implementation of the 50% penetrative export control rule and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%. The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target level [3]. - **Domestic Macro**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Supply - **International Supply**: New cotton is being harvested. As of now, 530,000 tons of new cotton have been inspected. In November, precipitation in major cotton - growing areas in the US will decrease, which is conducive to harvesting. In India, the MSP is gradually being implemented in the northern and central cotton - growing areas, but due to heavy precipitation, the MSP - based procurement has started slowly, and the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 12,000 tons. As of mid - October, the listing volume of new cotton in Pakistan was 588,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [3]. - **Domestic Supply**: - The national new cotton picking is approaching the end, with a progress of 79.7%, and it is expected to reach about 90% next week. The delivery progress is 88.5%, 4.3% faster than the same period last year; the inspection volume of new cotton has reached 1.68 million tons; the sales progress is 10.5%, 5.8% faster than the same period last year. The average purchase price of national seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, rising from 6.16 yuan/kg in the middle of the month to 6.32 yuan/kg. The average price of new - season machine - picked lint cotton has increased to around 14,500 yuan/ton, and the cost range of machine - picked lint cotton during the harvest period is 14,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton [10]. - This week, the national commercial cotton inventory increased by 408,200 tons to 1.8416 million tons, 76,600 tons lower than the same period last year; the commercial inventory in Xinjiang increased by 297,400 tons to 944,400 tons, 16,600 tons higher than the same period last year; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces decreased by 27,500 tons to 170,200 tons, 58,200 tons lower than the same period last year. In terms of finished products, the inventory days of pure cotton yarn decreased by 0.23 days to 31.02 days, the inventory days of terminal grey cloth decreased by 1.07 days to 23.01 days, and the inventory days of polyester - cotton yarn in the factory decreased by 0.15 days to 27.81 days [12]. - In September 2025, China imported about 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 18.7%; from January to September 2025, China imported about 680,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.8%. In September 2025, China imported about 127,700 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 15.02%. From January to September, the total import volume of cotton yarn in China was about 1.0366 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.44% [16]. - There are few cotton warehouse receipts left in Xinjiang, and the effective forecast volume far exceeds that of the same period last year [17]. Inventory - The national cotton commercial inventory continues to rise, basically converging the previous year - on - year difference and approaching the same - period level. The inventory in Xinjiang has exceeded the same - period level, while the change in inland inventory is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the pressure of passive inventory replenishment in inland areas. The inventory of downstream finished products has decreased slightly, and the overall inventory level is still relatively neutral. Most of the Xinjiang warehouse receipts have flowed out, and the remaining warehouse receipts are concentrated in inland cotton - growing areas. The forecast volume of new - cotton warehouse receipts in Xinjiang exceeds that of the same period [3]. Demand - **International Demand**: In the US, clothing retail and wholesale sales continued to grow strongly in August, but consumer confidence declined slightly in September. In September, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports decreased seasonally but were still higher year - on - year. The consumer confidence index in the EU showed signs of stabilizing and recovering in September. In August, the growth rate of clothing import volume decreased significantly, and the import amount decreased, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in price [3]. - **Domestic Demand**: - This week, the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills decreased slightly. Due to the recent increase in cotton prices and the difficulty of downstream yarn price support, the immediate profits of representative yarns have declined to varying degrees. The cumulative difference in the overall industry profit has been expanding this year. As of September, the cumulative year - on - year profit has rebounded to - 18.5% [20]. - This week, the total cotton cloth sales volume in the Light Textile City increased slightly, and the 5 - day moving average of cotton cloth sales volume increased from 386,000 meters to 390,000 meters, 74,000 meters higher than the same period. In Keqiao, the fabric price index decreased by 0.16 to 110.79, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 1.45 to 110.98 [22]. - In September, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased by 1.57% to 44.29%, 12.29% lower than the same period and below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. In terms of demand, the new order PMI increased by 1.98% to 48.72%, 9.44% lower than the same period; the operating rate PMI increased by 4.07% to 41.03%, 17.13% lower than the same period. In terms of inventory, the cotton yarn inventory PMI increased by 7.5% to 56.41%, 3.79% higher than the same period; the cotton inventory increased by 1.75% to 41.3%, 3.79% higher than the same period [24]. - In September, the total retail sales of enterprises above the designated size in clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles reached 123.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, further increasing from the 3.1% year - on - year growth rate in August; from January to September, the cumulative total retail sales of enterprises above the designated size in clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [26]. - In September, the "rush - to - export" effect continued to decline, and the year - on - year performance further weakened. The export of textile and clothing continued to be under pressure, and the export unit prices of clothing and yarn showed a slight divergence, but the export situation was still serious both year - on - year and month - on - month [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply-demand drive for plastics is weak, and inventory reduction is difficult to sustain. In November, new production capacity from Guangxi Petrochemical will be released, and supply is expected to increase seasonally. Demand is insufficient compared to the growth rate, and it's hard to form a positive restocking cycle. Consider the long - term high - production cycle of plastics and the risk of a downward shift in the oil price center. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds due to improved macro sentiment or escalated geopolitical conflicts [4]. - The inventory pressure in the PP industry chain is at a high level, and cost support is insufficient. After the National Day, inventory accumulation in the industry chain exceeded expectations, and recent inventory reduction has been slow. In November, the supply pattern will remain loose, and the seasonal peak demand effect is gradually fading. The profit still has room to compress [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Plastics**: This month, plastics opened low and trended lower, with three consecutive negative monthly lines. The price fluctuated between 6830 and 7145, with an amplitude of 315 points [3][13]. - **PP**: This month, PP also opened low and trended lower, with three consecutive negative monthly lines. The price fluctuated between 6530 and 6805, with an amplitude of 275 points [7][16]. 3.2 Valuation - For plastics, the basis, monthly spread are weakly running, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level compared to the same period. LLDPE weighted oil gross profit is neutral year - on - year, and the weighted gross profit is at a neutral position in the same period [17][24][26]. - For PP, the profit is moderately high, and the spot price has fallen below the 6000 mark, with insufficient cost support [32][33]. 3.3 Supply - In November, the PE start - up rate has a seasonal upward trend, while the PP start - up rate may remain stable due to insufficient maintenance plans [36][38]. 3.4 Demand - In November, the downstream start - up rate of PE may weaken seasonally, but the start - up rate of agricultural film is seasonally rising. The downstream start - up rate of PP may remain stable [40][42][43]. - From January to September 2025, the apparent consumption of PE was 3358 million tons (cumulative year - on - year +11%), and that of PP was 2981 million tons (year - on - year +13%, with a +12% increase in September) [41][45]. 3.5 Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the import volume was 1000 million tons (year - on - year - 1.8%). In September, the import volume was 102 million tons (year - on - year - 10%, month - on - month +8%). The expected export volumes in October and November are 110 and 116 million tons respectively. - From January to September 2025, the export volume was 83 million tons (year - on - year +30%). In September, the export volume was 10 million tons (year - on - year +64%, month - on - month - 14%). The expected export volumes in October and November are 9.5 and 9.4 million tons respectively. - The import and export of PP are basically balanced, and the current export profit margin has narrowed [48][51][52]. 3.6 Inventory - PE enterprise inventory has significantly decreased, while PP enterprise inventory remains at a high level compared to the same period. Social inventory is being reduced slowly, and the overall inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The downstream raw material inventory has reached a high level compared to the same period [56][58][60]. 3.7 Strategy - **Plastics**: Short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6800 - 7100] for L2601. Hold the long LP01 arbitrage. Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time due to the low basis [6]. - **PP**: Short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6450 - 6750] for PP2601. Short MTO (01) at high prices. Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time due to the low basis [10]. 3.8 Production Capacity Plan - In 2025, the planned PE production capacity is 613 million tons (year - on - year +17%), with 463 million tons already put into production from January to October, and 120 million tons remaining to be put into production. The planned PP production capacity is 511 million tons (year - on - year +11%), with 456 million tons already put into production from January to October, and 45 million tons remaining to be put into production. - In 2026, the industry is still in a high - production cycle. The probability of PP device delays is relatively high, and opportunities to short the LP05 spread can be considered [35].