| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入阶段性 | | | | 去库。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气以及上周达沃斯中美会晤后，美政府对美豆出口 | | 豆粕 | | 中国展望乐观，叠加美生柴政策预期，美豆市场人气偏多。但由于国储抛售以及下 | | ★ | 短期震荡偏多 | 游饲料企业前期已有一定备货准备，叠加豆油近期走好后，大豆榨利进一步上行， | | | | 豆粕继续上涨会逐步面临现货套保压力。豆粕偏多对待，但追多谨慎注意仓位及风 | | | | 控。关注阿根廷降雨情况以及美生柴协议内容落地情况。 | | | | 1 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。加拿大首批菜籽 | | 菜粕 | | 已经采购，预计 3 月后到港。菜粕现货短期供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。 | | | 止跌反弹 | 周末美加贸易波动，或影响中加贸易谈判结果，昨日菜粕延续收涨，但有消息中加 | | ★ | | 会晤后已经采购了近 65 万吨加籽，为 2 月至 4 月的远期合约，继续追多操 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比略降，产量在利润支撑下回升，库存开始累积。铁水产量变化不大，钢厂 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 利润总体一般，原料价格偏高抑制钢厂补库积极性。钢材供需层面矛盾有限，宏观利多 驱动不强，总体维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有下降，绝对水平偏高，去库速度仍然较慢。现货相 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制，中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 数据来看，本期外矿发到货双双下降，价格回落后部分钢企有采购意愿，阶段性带动矿 | | ★ | | 价走强。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，第二轮提涨有难度。近期焦企亏损程度加深，但受生产惯性短期焦 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略降。从需求来看，铁水产量环比基本持平，下游维持 按需采购。前期盘面快速下行后行情或有反复，区间看待。 | | 焦煤 | | 国内煤矿供应量环比下降，春节将至近期停产现象陆续增多。进口方面，口岸通关 ...

中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美国政府关门风险陡增、联储主席候选人未知，伊朗局势紧张，欧美地缘问题反复， | | | 长线持有 | 多基金撤离美元资产，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续 | | ★★ | | 存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银短期波动率较大，分析来看白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，全年来 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均 | | ★★ | | 对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 美联储如期不降息，黄金创新高带动有色飘红。铜矿供应紧张，海外冶炼厂长协谈 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 判承压，强预期和弱现实博弈激烈，铜高位区间盘整，建议铜多单移动止盈落袋， | | ★ | | 中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 锌锭淡季去库超预期，投机热钱涌入，短期锌震荡偏强，建议前期多单持有，逐渐 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 逢高止盈。企业卖出套保积极布局，锁定库存 ...

中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘反复扰动，油价短线反弹。地缘：中东地缘反复，油价反弹；核心驱 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | ★ | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘反复，跟随成本端反弹。成本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹，当前 | | LPG | | 原油仍过剩，中枢或继续下移；供需方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存 | | | | 环比下降。 | | L | | 乙烷继续涨价，盘面跟随成本继续偏强震荡，关注寒潮和地缘变动。两油 | | | 空头反弹 | 石化库存暂无明显压力，上游出厂价偏强。近期线性排产继续回升，农膜 | | ★ | | 需求淡季，终端补库意愿不足，基本面供强需弱存累库预期，谨 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入阶段性 | | | | 去库。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气以及上周达沃斯中美会晤后，美政府对美豆出口 | | 豆粕 | | 中国展望乐观，叠加美生柴政策预期，美豆市场人气偏多。但由于国储抛售以及下 | | ★ | 短期震荡偏多 | 游饲料企业前期已有一定备货准备，叠加豆油近期走好后，大豆榨利进一步上行， | | | | 豆粕继续上涨会逐步面临现货套保压力。豆粕偏多对待，但追多谨慎注意仓位及风 | | | | 控。关注阿根廷降雨情况以及美生柴协议内容落地情况。 | | | 1 | 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。加拿大首批菜籽 | | 菜粕 | | 已经采购，预计 3 月后到港。菜粕现货短期供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。 | | ★ | 止跌反弹 | 周末美加贸易波动，或影响中加贸易谈判结果，昨日菜粕延续小幅收涨，关注后续 | | | | 中加官方文件落地情况以及美加关系进展。 | | | | 意大利生物燃料新法规取 ...

中辉有色观点 | 11/2 140 112 | | | --- | --- | | 1 | | | I | A | | 75 11 | 3 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美元大跌，美国政府关门风险陡增、美联储主席候选人一波三折，伊朗局势紧张， | | | 长线持有 | 欧美地缘问题反复，多基金撤离美元资产，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期地缘秩序 | | ★★ | | 重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银短期波动率较大，分析来看，白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，全年 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 来看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政 | | ★★ | | | | | | 均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 特朗普暗示可操纵汇率，美元指数跌至 4 年新低，中东局势紧张。铜矿供应紧张， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 海外冶炼厂长协谈判承压，强预期和弱现实博弈激烈，铜隔夜测试 10 万关口支撑， | | ★ | | 建议铜多单移动止 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美国政府关门风险陡增、美联储主席候选人一波三折，伊朗局势紧张，欧美地缘问 | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 题反复，多基金撤离美元资产，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，全年来看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控 | | | 长期持有 | 制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多 | | ★★ | | 逻辑不变。 | | | | 美国内忧外患，四处树敌，美元指数走弱，贵金属飙升带动有色板块飘红，铜矿供 | | 铜 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 应紧张，海外冶炼厂长协谈判承压，建议铜多单继续持有，移动止盈落袋，中长期 对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 锌外强内弱，国内淡季去库超预期，企业补库积极，锌价重回 2 万 5 关口，建议前 | | 锌 | | | | ★ | 反弹 | 期多单持有，逐渐逢高止盈。企业卖出套保积极布局，锁定 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入阶段性 | | 豆粕 | | 去库。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气以及上周达沃斯中美会晤后，美政府对美豆出口 | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 中国展望乐观，叠加美生柴政策预期，美豆市场人气偏多。国内豆粕跟随反弹。由 | | | | 于国储抛售以及下游饲料企业前期已有一定备货准备，或限制短期持续上行空间。 | | | | 国内豆粕关注逢低短多机会，也可关注 59 正套机会。 | | | 1 | 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。加拿大首批菜籽 | | 菜粕 | 止跌反弹 | 已经采购，预计 3 月后到港。菜粕现货短期供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。 | | ★ | | 周末美加贸易波动，或影响中加贸易谈判结果，昨日菜粕价格大幅反弹，关注后续 | | | | 中加官方文件落地情况以及美加关系进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 本月前 20 日马棕榈油产量环比大幅下降，马棕榈油出口数据环比虽然增加，但仍有 | | ★ | 短线上涨 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘反复扰动，油价短线反弹。地缘：中东地缘反复，油价反弹；核心驱 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | ★ | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘反复，跟随成本端反弹。成本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹，当前 | | LPG | 空头反弹 | 原油仍过剩，中枢或继续下移；供需方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH | | ★ | | 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存 | | | | 环比下降。 | | L | | 短期跟随天然气偏强震荡，标品供应回升抑制反弹空间，关注寒潮和地缘 | | | 空头反弹 | 变动。两油石化库存暂无明显压力，上游出厂价偏强。近期线性排产继续 | | ★ | | 回升，农膜需求淡季，终端补库意愿不足，基本面供强需弱存累库预期， | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of black commodities first declined and then rebounded. Iron ore led the decline in the black - series at the beginning of the week, and coking coal and coke futures also weakened significantly. From Thursday, the chemical products sector rebounded across the board, and coking coal and coke prices followed the market sentiment and strengthened [4]. - In terms of supply and demand, some coal mines in the main production areas have stopped production, but most maintain normal production, with a slight increase in daily average output. Spot trading has weakened, and coal prices in the production areas have dropped slightly. Terminal buyers mainly purchase on - demand, and mine inventories have accumulated compared with the previous period [4]. - In terms of imports, the port clearance volume remains above 190,000 tons, maintaining the highest level in the same period. After the continuous decline of the futures market, traders' quotes have generally declined. Currently, the transaction price of some Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton, and the cost of Mongolian coal and Shanxi mainstream warehouse receipts is 1,160 - 1,270 yuan/ton [4]. - After the continuous rise of raw coal prices, the losses of coking enterprises have deepened. The first price increase proposed by coking enterprises was rejected. Some coking enterprises have taken measures such as delaying shipments to downstream customers. The game between coking and steel enterprises is intense, and the first price cut may be implemented, but the upward space is expected to be limited. Currently, steel mills' profits are average, and the pig iron output is basically flat compared with the previous period. Constrained by high raw material prices and safety inspections, steel mills are still cautious about replenishing inventories [4]. - With only three weeks left until the Lunar New Year, downstream demand for raw materials still exists but is difficult to increase significantly. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can exceed 2.3 million tons. From the perspective of capital sentiment, the main contract increased its positions by 3,000 lots this week, and the speculation degree has significantly declined compared with the previous period. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are limited, the futures price is basically at the same level as the Mongolian No. 5 warehouse receipts, and the price is in a relatively reasonable range. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate within a range following the market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high point [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal Market - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: Different varieties of coking coal have different spot prices and warehouse receipt costs in various locations. For example, the spot price of Mongolian No. 5 in Tangshan on January 22, 2026, was 1,390 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt cost was 1,163 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: The basis, weekly change, basis rate, average value in the past month, and seasonality of different contracts (January, May, September) are provided. For example, the basis of the January contract is - 41, with a weekly change of - 267 and a basis rate of - 3.33% [10]. - **Supply** - **Mine**: The daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 1.9944 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,500 tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 770,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [17]. - **Coal Washery**: The daily average output of sample coal washeries was 276,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 37.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62% [20]. - **Import**: In 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import volume from Mongolia increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 59.1% year - on - year [21][24]. - **Auction Data**: In the week of January 16, 2026, the coking coal listing volume was 1.8641 million tons, the transaction rate was 94.42%, and the non - transaction rate was 5.58%. Compared with the week of January 9, 2026, the listing volume increased by 394,700 tons, the transaction rate increased by 8.57%, and the non - transaction rate decreased by 8.57% [27]. 3.2 Coke Market - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit in different regions (national, Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong) has different values and weekly changes. For example, the national coking profit on January 22, 2026, was - 66 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basis**: Similar to coking coal, the basis, weekly change, basis rate, average value in the past month, and seasonality of different coke contracts (January, May, September) are provided [39]. - **Inventory Distribution**: As of January 23, 2026, the coke inventory in steel mills was 661,640 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,310 tons; the available days of steel mill inventory were 12.35 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 days; the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 81,450 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 360 tons; the port inventory was 196,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,990 tons [52].