Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Haier Smart Home with a target price raised to HK$31.24, indicating a potential upside of 21.8% from the current price of HK$25.65 [2][4]. Core Insights - Haier's FY24E guidance is expected to be resilient, supported by steady growth in the Casarte brand, improvements in the Air-conditioning business, and favorable macroeconomic policies [2][6]. - The company has raised its dividend payout ratio to over 45% for FY24E, reflecting a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders amidst a challenging macro environment [2][6]. - Management remains confident in achieving sales growth of mid-single digits to high-single digits (MSD to HSD) and over 10% net profit growth for FY24E [2][6]. Financial Summary - FY23 results showed a 7% YoY increase in sales to RMB261.4 billion and a 14% YoY rise in net profit to RMB16.7 billion, aligning with Bloomberg estimates [6]. - The dividend per share (DPS) increased by 42% YoY to RMB8.04, with a payout ratio significantly up from 36% the previous year [6]. - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB278.9 billion, with expected net profit of RMB19.3 billion, reflecting a 14% growth [3][12]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers for FY24E include: 1. Steady sales growth of 10% to 15% for the Casarte brand due to increased presence in high-end markets and repeat orders from members [2]. 2. A ramp-up in the Air-conditioning business, aided by improved operational efficiencies and in-house production [2]. 3. Potential subsidies and favorable policies in the EU market, alongside a rebound in demand in the ANZ market [2]. 4. Continued demand from high-end segments, particularly in the US market [2]. Margin Improvement - Expected improvements in both gross profit (GP) and net profit (NP) margins due to: 1. Centralized sourcing of raw materials and better freight rate negotiations [2]. 2. Increased automation and digitization across global factories [2]. 3. Enhanced product premiumization through high-end brand sales [2]. 4. Targeted marketing strategies and manpower rationalization in the EU market [2]. Earnings Revision - FY24E net profit estimates have been fine-tuned down by 1% to RMB19.1 billion, while FY25E estimates have been adjusted up by 2% to RMB21.8 billion [7]. - Revenue estimates for FY24E have been slightly reduced by 0.8% to RMB278.9 billion, reflecting slower growth in certain segments [7]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 12x FY24E P/E, which is below its 5-year average of 15x, indicating potential undervaluation [2][4]. - The new target price is based on a 14x FY24E P/E, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's performance [2].

资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 图 10: 职位空缺数/失业人数与薪资增速 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 分析员声明 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 2024 年 4 月 8 日 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 4 对于在新加坡的收件人 2024 年 4 月 8 日 1 美国经济 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for China Life, with a new target price set at HK$13.7, implying a potential upside of 47.2% from the current price of HK$9.31 [2][4][16]. Core Insights - China Life reported a full-year net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 46.2 billion, a decrease of 30.7% year-over-year, but the net loss in 4Q23 significantly narrowed to RMB 610 million from a loss of RMB 10.6 billion in 3Q23 [2][6]. - The company achieved a low-teen growth in Value of New Business (VNB), increasing by 11.9% year-over-year to RMB 36.9 billion, despite revised Economic Value (EV) assumptions [2][6]. - The insurer's insurance revenue saw a strong rebound, growing by 32.6% in the second half of 2023, supported by a release of RMB 44.1 billion in contractual service margin [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY23, China Life's net profit was RMB 46.2 billion, with a net profit of RMB 10.6 billion in 4Q23, reflecting a significant improvement from the previous quarter [2][6]. - The company reported a total investment yield of 2.43% and a net investment yield of 3.70% by the end of 2023, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [2][6]. VNB and EV Growth - The VNB for FY23 was RMB 36.9 billion, reflecting an 11.9% increase year-over-year, while the EV grew by 5.6% to RMB 1.26 trillion [2][6]. - The report indicates that the revisions in EV assumptions had a limited impact on VNB growth, with the long-term investment return revised down to 4.5% [2][6]. Investment Strategy - The report anticipates a positive turnaround in net investment results in 1H24, driven by improved index performances and a higher allocation to bonds [2][6]. - The target price adjustment reflects a new valuation approach based on P/EV and DDM, with the new target price of HK$13.7 implying a P/EV of 0.3x for FY24E [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating on Nayuki (2150 HK) but cuts the target price to HK$ 3.43 [2][4] Core View - The report highlights that franchising and cost-cutting are key to Nayuki's strategy, despite a cautious outlook on the catering sector due to weakening macro demand and increased competition [2] - Nayuki's high cash level (over 75% of its market cap) and potential income from franchising are key reasons for the BUY rating [2] - The report expects a mixed FY24E outlook with pressure on topline growth but some room for margin improvement [2] Store Expansion and Performance - Nayuki's SSSG for Jan/Feb/Mar 2024 were -29%/-34%/-30%, worse than the 7% drop in 2H23, driven by a drop in both ASP and volume [2] - The store expansion plan for FY24E is conservative, with ~200 new self-operated stores and ~150 closures, resulting in a net increase of only a handful of stores [2] - For franchising, around 80 stores were opened in FY23, and the target for FY24E is 200-400 franchised stores, with a long-term goal of 2,000-3,000 new stores [2] Financial Projections - Revenue growth for FY24E is forecasted at 14%, driven by a 3% increase in store counts (excluding franchise), a 6% increase in sales per store, and ramp-up of RTD and franchising business [2] - Net profit margin for FY24E is expected to improve to around 1.1%, supported by stable GP margin, cost control, and cautious investment in the RTD business [2] - The report cuts FY24E/25E net profit by 87%/72% due to slower self-operated store expansion and falling sales per store [2] Valuation and Market Performance - Nayuki is currently trading at 0.7x FY24E P/S and 20x FY25E P/E, with a target price of HK$ 3.43, representing a 31.3% upside from the current price of HK$ 2.61 [2][4] - The valuation method has been changed from 20x FY24E P/E to 1.0x FY24E P/S, applying a ~20% discount to peers' average of 1.2x [2] Historical Performance - FY23 revenue increased by 20% YoY to RMB 5.2bn, with net profit turning positive to RMB 13mn, but NP margin remained low at 0.3% [6] - In 2H23, sales growth slowed to 14%, and NP margin turned negative to -2.1%, driven by a sharp drop in ASP and volume [6] Earnings Revision - The report significantly revises down FY24E revenue and net profit estimates, with revenue now forecasted at RMB 5,877mn (-28.2% from previous estimates) and net profit at RMB 63.7mn (-86.9% from previous estimates) [7] Peer Comparison - Nayuki's valuation is compared to peers in the Greater China catering sector, with a 12-month target price of HK$ 3.43, representing a 31% upside [12]

M N 5 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update GAC Group (2238 HK) PHEV could be a new catalyst We estimate GAC Group (GAC)’s net profit to rise 22% YoY to RMB5.4bn in Target Price HK$5.50 FY24E, as Aion’s upscale attempt, cost reduction and overseas expansion could (Previous TP HK$6.00) help narrow its loss. We are of the view that Aion needs quality growth in FY24E Up/Downside 73.0% to lay out foundation for long-term development. We project Trumpchi’s PHEV Current Pric ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) with a target price of US$ 23.68, reflecting a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of US$ 18.98 [4][12]. Core Insights - The 4Q23 results slightly exceeded expectations, but the FY24E guidance was somewhat disappointing. However, there is optimism for sequential improvement due to a high base in the first half of the year, a strong occupancy rate compared to peers, and an improving PMI starting March 2024 [2][7]. - Revenue per available room (RevPAR) showed a year-to-date decline but improved quarter-over-quarter, with management targeting a flat recovery rate for FY24E [2][7]. - The company plans to open 360 new hotels in FY24E, aligning with previous expectations, and has a robust pipeline of 617 managed hotels under development [2][7]. Financial Summary - FY23 revenue reached RMB 4.7 billion, a 106.2% year-over-year increase, while net profit attributable rose by 651% to RMB 739 million [7][11]. - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB 5.96 billion, with a 27.8% year-over-year growth, and net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.16 billion, reflecting a 57.7% increase [3][9]. - The report indicates a slight improvement in adjusted net profit margin for FY24E, with a target of 19.5% [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The current valuation stands at a P/E of 16x for FY24E, which is considered not demanding given the projected 3-year sales and net profit CAGR of 26% and 41%, respectively [2][4]. - The target price is based on a 20x FY24E P/E, rolled over from a previous 30x FY23E P/E, compared to peers' median of 18x [2][4]. Growth Initiatives - The company is focusing on increasing corporate customer enrollments, enhancing product offerings, and targeting robust retail sales growth, particularly through Tmall and Douyin channels [2][7]. - Management anticipates a small improvement in net profit margin due to better operational expense control and a stronger-than-expected retail sales performance [2][7].

制造业重回扩张，服务业小幅放缓 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 宏观策略 3 月制造业 PMI 经历 16 个月收缩后重回扩张，超出市场预期，显示商品需求 小幅反弹。服务业 PMI 仍在扩张区间但小幅回落，显示服务经济温和放缓。服 务业与制造业就业指数均连续两个月收缩，显示就业市场降温。制造业价格指 数大幅上升，但服务业价格指数回落，预示商品通胀可能反弹，但核心通胀或 继续放缓。制造业和服务业 PMI 数据对 10 年期国债收益率产生相反作用。由 于今年以来经济超预期和通胀反弹，美联储正在引导市场调整之前对降息路径 过度乐观的预期。市场对年内降息次数预期可能从之前的 3 次降至 1-2 次。在 经济和通胀温和放缓的基准情景下，为降低中小银行压力和避免政策在临近大 选时急剧转向，美联储可能选择在 6 月首次降息。我们仍维持全年可能降息 100 个基点的预测，但由于经济和通胀韧性，高利率持续时间比预期更长。回 顾政策利率调整历史，我们发现低利率持续过久预示未来加息更陡，而高利率 持续过久意味着未来降息可能更陡。如果未来 2-3 年美国潜在名义 GDP 增速逐 步回到 4%左右，那么中性名义利率水平约为 3.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for RemeGen, with a revised target price of HK$41.72, down from HK$57.65, indicating a potential upside of 53.7% from the current price of HK$27.15 [5][3]. Core Insights - RemeGen recorded revenue of RMB1.08 billion in FY23, with product sales contributing RMB1.05 billion, reflecting a 42% year-over-year increase. The gross profit margin improved to 76.9% from 63.4% in FY22. However, the company reported a wider attributable net loss of RMB1.51 billion in FY23 compared to RMB999 million in FY22 [3][11]. - The company anticipates a significant ramp-up in sales for FY24, targeting at least a 50% year-over-year increase in product sales, driven by strong performance of RC18 and RC48, an expanded salesforce, and inclusion in numerous top-grade hospitals [3][9]. - RemeGen is progressing with the global development of RC18, with the first stage of its Phase 3 trial completed. The company is considering whether to unblind the study results, which could serve as a catalyst for further development and potential out-licensing deals [3][10]. - The report highlights the potential for overseas business development collaborations, particularly for RC18 and RC88, which has received fast track designation from the FDA. These collaborations are expected to be crucial for RemeGen's growth trajectory [3][10]. Financial Summary - In FY23, RemeGen's revenue was RMB1,076 million, with a gross profit of RMB823 million, resulting in a gross margin of 76.5%. The company incurred operating expenses of RMB2,334 million, leading to an operating loss of RMB1,488 million [11][13]. - For FY24, the revenue is projected to reach RMB1,601 million, with a gross profit of RMB1,225 million, maintaining a gross margin of 76.5% [11][10]. - The net profit for FY24 is expected to be a loss of RMB1,451 million, improving to a loss of RMB1,070 million in FY25, and further narrowing to a loss of RMB362 million in FY26 [11][10].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of HK$13.00, implying a 39.2% upside from the current price of HK$9.34 [2][3][4] Core Views - The Tank brand, pick-up trucks, and exports are expected to support Great Wall Motor's earnings in FY24E, with projected sales volume increasing by 10% YoY to 1.35 million units and net profit rising by 13% YoY to RMB 7.9 billion [2][3] - PHEVs are identified as key to the company's electrification strategy, while BEV sales volume is projected to decline YoY in FY24E due to a lack of competitive products [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 173.2 billion in FY23A to RMB 197.2 billion in FY24E, representing a 13.8% YoY growth [3][6] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 7.0 billion in FY23A to RMB 7.9 billion in FY24E, reflecting a 13.0% YoY growth [3][6] - Gross profit margin (GPM) is revised up by 0.4 percentage points to 18.6% for FY24E, driven by better-than-expected margins from PHEVs [2][3] Sales and Profitability - 1Q24E net profit is projected to be approximately RMB 1.6 billion, with a net profit per vehicle of RMB 5,800, which is 6% higher than in 4Q23 [2][3] - The company’s GPM for 4Q23 is estimated to be around 21%, indicating stable profitability despite a 25% QoQ sales volume decline [2][3] Market Position and Strategy - Great Wall Motor's success in off-road style SUVs has positively impacted PHEV sales and margins, although challenges remain in transitioning to BEVs [2][3] - The upcoming Beijing Auto Show is anticipated to be a positive catalyst for share price, particularly with the debut of new PHEV models [2][3]

M N 2 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK) Impressive business rebound in 2023 Target Price HK$4.43 Jinxin Fertility (Jinxin) reported 2023 revenue of RMB2,789mn, up 18.0% YoY. (Previous TP HK$7.35) Non-IFRS adjusted net profit grew substantially by 72.0% YoY to RMB472mn. Up/Downside 82.3% Revenue was in line with our forecast while non-IFRS adjusted net income Current Price HK$2.43 slightly missed our forecast by 5.7%, which was mainly attr ...