11 Apr 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Q-Tech (1478 HK) 1Q24 shipment rebound on track; Auto & IoT as next growth drivers We recently spoke to Q-Tech's mgmt. and we maintain our positive view on high-end Android recovery to drive ASP/shipment upside in FY24E. Q-tech also expected GPM improvement in 1H24E thanks to better product mix and easing competition. For 1Q24, Q-Tech posted impressive growth of 23%/179% YoY in mobile/non-mobile CCM shipment, th ...

M N 11 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update GigaCloud (GCT US) Improving fundamentals with BaaS initiatives Target Price US$46.00 After short-term stock price volatility on insider filings, we suggest investors to (Previous TP US$43.00) refocus on GigaCloud (GCT)’s strong organic growth and fundamentals Up/Downside 45.6% improvement. We expect GCT to deliver another eye-catching 1Q24E, with topline accelerating to +96% YoY (5% above high-end of guidance) and bottom Cu ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Baidu with a target price of US$183.20, slightly adjusted from the previous target of US$186.20, indicating a potential upside of 77.8% from the current price of US$103.05 [2][3]. Core Insights - Baidu Core is expected to achieve mild ads revenue growth in 1Q24, primarily driven by strong performance in travel and e-commerce sectors, although this is partially offset by weaker offline verticals due to macroeconomic conditions [2]. - The company is focusing on investing in generative AI opportunities to enhance long-term revenue and earnings growth while improving operational efficiency in non-core businesses [2]. - The pace of monetization for generative AI-related ads and cloud revenue is identified as a key catalyst for future growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1Q24, Baidu Core is estimated to generate revenue of RMB23.5 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase, but 3% below Bloomberg consensus estimates [2]. - The forecast for Baidu Core ads revenue is RMB16.9 billion, also up 2% year-over-year, driven by travel and e-commerce, but impacted by weaker offline performance post-Chinese New Year [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for 1Q24 is projected at RMB5.1 billion, down 5% year-over-year, resulting in a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 21.8% [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: RMB141.6 billion for FY24E, RMB150.9 billion for FY25E, and RMB159.4 billion for FY26E, with slight downward revisions compared to previous estimates [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be RMB27.0 billion for FY24E, with a decrease in growth rate due to increased investments in AI [6]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is forecasted at RMB27.0 billion, reflecting a 6% decrease from the previous year [3][6]. Valuation Breakdown - The SOTP-based valuation of US$183.2 per ADS includes: - US$68.1 for Baidu Core ads based on a 7.0x 2024E non-GAAP PE - US$1.8 for Apollo ASD based on a 2.0x 2030E revenue - US$35.2 for Baidu Cloud based on a 4.3x 2024E PS - US$65.0 in net cash - US$13.2 for iQIYI and other investments, applying a 30% holding discount [7][9].

2024 年 4 月 11 日 美国经济 由于能源和核心服务价格持续反弹，3 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 环比增速连续三个月高 于市场预期，CPI 同比增速延续回升。房价和房贷利率回升令部分购房者转向租 房市场，独栋住宅房租增速仍然过快，制约房租通胀回落。但近期利率回升将逐 渐抑制房价涨幅，且新房待售数已升至新高，预计独栋住宅租金涨幅将温和回 落。通胀数据公布后，2 年国债收益率最高上升近 30BP 至 4.96%，10 年国债收 益率上升近 15BP 至 4.5%，收益率曲线倒挂程度扩大；美元指数走强，美股走 弱。货币市场预期 6 月美联储降息概率从超 55%下降至 18%，全年下降 40BP。 近期火热的通胀数据可能使美联储重新思考利率限制性不足的风险，6 月降息概 率和年内降息幅度将大幅下降。预计首次降息时间可能推迟至 9 月，全年降息幅 度 50 个基点左右。由于通胀持续超预期，我们将年末 10 年国债收益率的预测从 3.8%上调至 4%。新公布会议纪要显示多数票委认为将很快开始缩减 QT 规模至 目前的一半，预计联储将在 6 月开始将每月国债 QT 上限减半至 300 亿美金，同 时维持 MBS 每 ...

M N 10 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Continued outperformance during Qingming Target Price HK$26.10 The three-day Qingming Festival holiday embraced booming demand, with (Previous TP HK$26.10) domestic tourist trips +11.5% and tourism revenue +12.7% (both vs. the Up/Downside 23.7% 2019 level), according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Tongcheng Current Price HK$21.10 Travel (TC) kept its strong momentum during the Qingming Fest ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for TK Group with a target price (TP) adjusted to HK$2.79, based on an 8.2x FY24E P/E ratio, which aligns with its 5-year historical forward P/E [2][20][34]. Core Insights - Management expressed a positive outlook on order restocking, new client acquisitions, and capacity expansion in Vietnam and Huizhou, particularly in the automotive, medical device, and e-cigarette sectors. Following a challenging FY23, net profit is expected to grow by 38% and 19% year-on-year in FY24 and FY25, respectively, driven by new orders and operational efficiency improvements [2][38]. - The stock is currently trading at 4.4x FY24E P/E with a yield of 10%, indicating an attractive risk/reward profile [2][38]. Financial Summary - FY23 revenue and net profit declined by 15% and 10% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to weak demand in consumer electronics and communications, although the automotive and e-cigarette segments showed growth [38]. - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at HK$2,318 million, with a year-on-year growth of 19%, and net profit is expected to reach HK$282 million, reflecting a 38% increase [9][10][38]. - Gross profit margin improved to 26.4% in FY23 from 23.7% in FY22, attributed to favorable foreign exchange rates and easing supply chain issues in the automotive sector [38]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue mix indicates a significant contribution from various segments, with mobile and wearable devices, medical devices, and automotive sectors being key growth drivers [6][9][10]. - The automotive segment is projected to grow by 25% in FY24E, while the e-cigarette segment is expected to continue its strong performance with a 40% growth forecast [9][10][38]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a P/E ratio of 4.4x for FY24E, which is considered attractive compared to historical averages, alongside a dividend payout ratio of 83% [2][38]. - The expected return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve to 16.0% in FY24E, reflecting enhanced profitability and operational efficiency [10][15][38].

M N 9 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Yunkang Group (2325 HK) Back to normal growth Target Price HK$13.78 Yunkang Group reported 2023 revenue of RMB891.5mn, down by 76.3% YoY, (Previous TP HK$16.01) primarily due to the sharp decline of diagnostic testing demand for COVID-19 Up/Downside 24.3% in China. The blended gross margin improved to 36.5% in 2023 (+1.7 ppts), Current Price HK$11.08 mainly due to enhanced operation efficiency and effective cost control. The ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Haidilao with a target price (TP) of HK$ 21.52, reflecting a 25.1% upside from the current price of HK$ 17.20 [2][4][9]. Core Insights - Haidilao's downside is protected by a 5.6% dividend yield for FY24E and a 90% payout ratio, while the upside is linked to the acceleration of store expansion once the franchising model is finalized [2][7]. - The company has shown strong momentum in 2024, with table turnover increasing by over 30% in January-February, despite a slight seasonal retreat in March [2][7]. - Management is targeting a single-digit percentage increase in store counts for FY24E, focusing on a cautious expansion strategy after lessons learned from previous overexpansion [2][7]. Financial Performance - In FY23, Haidilao's revenue increased by 34% YoY to RMB 41.5 billion, and net profit surged by 175% YoY to RMB 4.5 billion, both in line with prior positive profit alerts [7]. - The company has revised its FY24E and FY25E net profit forecasts upward by 12% and 15%, respectively, due to improved table turnover recovery and better sourcing costs [2][8]. - The operating profit margin is expected to increase to 14.6% in FY24E from 14.3% in FY23, driven by a lower breakeven point for table turnover [2][8]. Earnings Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 47,018 million, with a YoY growth of 13.4% [3][12]. - Net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 4,996.6 million, reflecting a 10.6% increase from FY23 [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is projected at RMB 0.89, with a P/E ratio of 16.0x [3][12]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company currently has 13 stores with signed lease agreements, primarily in tier 2 cities, and plans to refine its franchising model to enhance local knowledge and capital utilization [2][11]. - The total number of restaurants is expected to grow to 1,424 by FY24E, with a focus on maintaining quality over rapid expansion [11].

M N 9 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Akeso (9926 HK) Promising Ph3 data of cadonilimab in 1L GC  Promising Ph3 data of cadonilimab in 1L GC, especially for patients with Target Price HK$59.61 low PD-L1 expression. The interim Ph3 (NCT05008783) data of (Previous TP HK$59.61) cadonilimab in 1L GC was recently released at the AACR meeting (link). With Up/Downside 27.8% a median follow-up of 18.7 months, cadonilimab + chemo (XELOX) extended Current Price HK$46.65 t ...

招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 长期利率反映市场对未来经济增长和通胀的预期，与潜在名义 GDP 增速密切相 关。财政政策、货币政策与国际资本流动则能够解释长期利率与潜在名义 GDP 增速之差。国债利率与名义 GDP 增速的关系是决定联邦政府债务可持续性的重 要因素，美元主导地位和美联储 QE 通过降低国债利率相比名义 GDP 增速的幅 度，提升联邦政府债务可持续性。在当前经济和通胀依然偏强情况下，市场对长 期名义 GDP 增速预期较高。经济和通胀近期超预期后，未来三个季度可能温和 放缓，市场对长期名义 GDP 增速的预期或有所回落，长期国债收益率可能从目 前的 4.2%降至年末的 3.8%。 长期利率反映市场对未来经济增长和通胀的预期。根据利率期限结构的预期 理论，长期利率反映市场对远期一系列短期利率的平均预期。远期的短期利 率由未来政策利率决定，取决于未来经济增长和通胀情况。由于名义 GDP 增 速包含经济增长和通胀两个变量，长期利率与市场对未来名义经济增速的预 期密切相关。10 年国债收益率反映市场对未来 10 年名义 GDP 增速的预期。 由于 10 年基本覆盖经济周期各个阶段，未来 10 ...