2025年11月28日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) 悲观情绪略有消化,盘面偏弱震荡,建议观望为主,运价并无明显波动。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 11月24日 | 11月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1639.37点, 较上期上涨20.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 946.44点, 较上期下跌5.33% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1107.85点, 较上期下跌10.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 951.65点,较上期下跌2.83% | | 11月21日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 955.93点, 较上期下跌9.17% | | | 11月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1393.56点,较上期下跌57.82点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1122.79点,较上期上涨2.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1367USD/TEU, 较上期下跌3.53% | 中国出口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Shanghai Composite 50 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [3] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [3] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - 2 - Year Treasury Bonds: Volatile [3] - 5 - Year Treasury Bonds: Volatile [3] - 10 - Year Treasury Bonds: Upward [3] - Gold: Volatile and Bullish [4] - Silver: Volatile and Bullish [4] - Logs: Bottom - Hunting [4] - Pulp: Volatile and Weakening [7] - Offset Paper: Volatile and Weakening [7] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound [6] - Palm Oil: Range - bound [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound [6] - Soybean Meal: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live Pigs: Volatile and Bullish [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Volatile [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Widely Volatile [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various industries. Some industries are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by policy, geopolitical, and seasonal factors. The market is generally in a state of volatility, and short - term and long - term influencing factors need to be comprehensively considered for investment decisions [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, while 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 tons to 2939.5 tons. Daily hot metal production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with new construction starts at 2005 levels and weak domestic demand. Port iron ore inventories rose slightly to an 8 - month high. The supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and although steel mill profits are squeezed, short - term self - initiated production cuts are unlikely, so iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by Mongolia's import target and the heating - season supply guarantee meeting, the coking coal and coke futures prices dropped significantly. Although the fourth round of price increases by coking enterprises has been implemented, profit repair is limited, and there are obvious differences in sentiment regarding the fifth round. Pit - mouth coking coal prices are high, and coking plants are under cost pressure and have low production intentions. Supply concerns in the coking coal industry are intensifying, and the supply - demand situation may become loose again, with prices adjusting weakly in the short term [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter storage replenishment has not started. The core lies in steel demand, with real estate new construction at 2005 levels and weak domestic demand. Steel prices will stop falling depending on the implementation of a more than 5% production cut in Q4 2025 and the intensity of anti - "involution" policies. Currently, steel prices will remain at the bottom and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of December's macro - policy expectations on winter storage [2] - **Glass**: News of cold repairs in Hubei continued to ferment, which will reduce delivery pressure. Real - estate completion is declining, dragging down demand, and enterprise inventories are increasing. To solve the industry - wide surplus problem, the daily melting volume needs to drop to about 15.4 tons by the end of the year. Attention should be paid to whether macro - factors and production - line cold repairs can bring a turning point for prices to stop falling and stabilize [2][3] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw the CSI 300 index down 0.05%, the SSE 50 index up 0.02%, the CSI 500 index down 0.20%, and the CSI 1000 index up 0.12%. Some sectors had capital inflows or outflows. The State Council held a meeting to discuss relevant work, and the NDRC introduced infrastructure REITs expansion and addressed the development of the embodied - intelligence industry. The market is in short - term adjustment but remains optimistic in the medium term, with the high - tech industry growing [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was flat, and the central bank conducted 3564 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 564 billion yuan. Treasury bond spot rates were consolidating, and the market showed a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: In the context of high - interest rates and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. Gold's de - fiat - currency attribute is prominent, and its sensitivity to US Treasury real interest rates has decreased. Geopolitical risks and Chinese physical - gold demand support prices. The logic driving the current gold - price increase remains unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbances. Silver shows a similar trend to gold [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: Last week, the average daily port shipment of logs decreased by 0.12 cubic meters to 6.44 cubic meters, and the national average daily outbound volume was stable above 6 cubic meters. In October, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China increased by 2%, while China's coniferous - log imports decreased by 4.67% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year. This week's expected arrival volume increased by 48%. Port inventories increased by 8 cubic meters to 303 cubic meters, with high inventory pressure. Spot prices were stable, but the cost support weakened, and log prices are expected to continue to decline [4][7] - **Pulp**: The previous trading day's spot prices were stable. The latest outer - market prices of coniferous pulp decreased by 20 dollars to 680 dollars/ton, and those of broad - leaved pulp increased by 20 dollars to 540 dollars/ton. The cost support for pulp prices weakened. The papermaking industry's profit level was low, and paper mills had high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high - priced pulp. Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Offset Paper**: The previous trading day's spot prices increased slightly in some cases. Supply was stable, and production decreased slightly compared to last week. Publishing tenders were ongoing, but market expectations were cautious. Paper prices were at low profit levels, and the enthusiasm for high - price stockpiling was low. Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Oils and Fats - **Oils**: US soybean crushing reached a record high, but the US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In October, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory were higher than expected, and from November 1 - 20, production increased by 3.24% month - on - month. However, floods in Southeast Asia may affect palm - oil harvesting and transportation. Malaysian palm - oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% month - on - month. In China, a large amount of soybeans are arriving, oil - mill operating rates are high, and oil inventories are rising, while demand is weak. Oil prices are expected to continue to move in a range, and attention should be paid to weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas and Malaysian palm - oil production and sales [6] - **Meals**: US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks have all been adjusted downward, with a structurally tight supply, but the global soybean supply remains relatively loose. The China - US trade agreement may promote US soybean exports to China, but US soybean prices lack export advantages. Brazilian soybean planting progress has improved, and Argentina is experiencing drought. Domestic oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean - meal supply is abundant. Although demand from the breeding industry supports feed consumption, feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing. Soybean - meal prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to South American soybean weather and China - US trade progress [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs varies in different regions, with some areas seeing a decline due to farmers reducing losses or early slaughter, and others seeing an increase due to bullish expectations or passive pressure on inventory. The average settlement price of live pigs by key slaughtering enterprises is 12.34 yuan/kg, down 2.58% from the previous period. Terminal pork demand has recovered, but as the supply of suitable - weight pigs increases, the settlement price may face downward pressure. Slaughtering - enterprise operating rates are slowly rising, and live - pig prices are expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: In Yunnan, raw - material prices are stable, and factory price increases drive up raw - material prices. In Hainan, continuous rain, typhoons, and temperature drops affect rubber tapping, resulting in lower - than - expected glue production. In Thailand, rain has increased, and raw - material prices have risen, while in Vietnam, raw - material supply has gradually recovered. Total inventory is low. The capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, but as maintenance enterprises resume production, capacity will be gradually released. Automobile production and sales in October increased. Natural - rubber inventory is gradually increasing, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [10] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX prices fluctuate due to geopolitical uncertainties and Thanksgiving - holiday - affected trading. PTA's cost side is unstable, and although short - term supply - demand is improving, the industry will weaken seasonally. MEG has long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and short - term prices will fluctuate. PR and PF lack clear direction, and the market is expected to move sideways [10]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Affected by pessimistic sentiment, the market continued to decline significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, and there was no obvious fluctuation in freight rates [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. Currently, the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Pessimistic sentiment persists, spot freight rates are falling, the market has plunged, trading volume has increased, and the long - short game is fierce. The market is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Index Changes - On November 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 946.44 points, a decrease of 5.33% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1639.37 points, an increase of 20.7% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 951.65 points, a decrease of 2.83% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, a decrease of 10.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 955.93 points, a decrease of 9.17% from the previous period [2] - On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1393.56 points, a decrease of 57.82 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1122.79 points, an increase of 2.6% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1367 USD/TEU, a decrease of 3.53% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1432.96 points, an increase of 2.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1645 USD/FEU, a decrease of 9.76% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 850.96 points, an increase of 0.6% from the previous period [2] PMI Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3] - The initial value of the eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 45.9, expected to be 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the initial value of the service PMI was 51.2, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the initial value of the composite PMI was 49.7, expected to be 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 in the previous period and the predicted value was - 8.5 [2] - The initial value of the US October S&P Global service PMI was 55.2, expected to be 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the initial value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, expected to be 52; the initial value of the composite PMI was 54.8, expected to be 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3] Contract Information - On November 26, the main contract 2602 closed at 1387.4, a decline of 7.62%, with a trading volume of 38,100 lots and an open interest of 44,100 lots, a decrease of 4222 lots from the previous day [3] Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has retraced, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try to go long lightly in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract. After the market plunges, do not recommend additional positions or holding losses. Set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Other Information - The Sino - US tariff issue is still resolved in the form of an extension in the short term. The logic of the freight rate trend still returns to the traditional seasonality and the issue of when the Red Sea will resume navigation. Currently, the spot price has decreased slightly [3] - On November 25, the Egyptian Intelligence Bureau chief and the Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister held talks in Cairo on the Gaza cease - fire issue and agreed to continue to strengthen cooperation and coordination with the US to ensure the maintenance of the Gaza cease - fire and implement the second phase of the cease - fire agreement [5] - The CEO of Maersk said that he was encouraged by the Gaza peace process, which would help establish freedom of navigation in the Mandeb Strait and restore normal trade routes [5]

2025年11月27日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) 中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案,运价走势的 逻辑还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上,目前现货价 格小幅下降。综上述,我们认为,关税问题已经呈现边际化效 应,目前核心还是现货运价的走向,主力合约已经出现季节性反 弹,建议轻仓参与或观望。 11月26日主力合约2602收盘1387.4,跌幅为7.62%,成交量 3.81万手,持仓量4.41万手,较上日减手4222手。 悲观情绪持续,现货运价走低,市场大幅跳水,成交放量,多空 博弈激烈,盘面低位震荡。之后需对关税政策、中东局势以及现 货运价情况关注。 | 短期策略：主力合约回撤，远月合约较强，风险偏好者已建议 | | --- | | EC2602合约1550-1600区间轻仓试多,盘面大幅跳水,不建议继续 | | 补仓,不建议扛单,设置好止损。 | | 套利策略:国际局势动荡背景下,各合约仍保持季节性逻辑,波动 | | 较大,建议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 | | 长期策略:各合约已建议冲高止盈,等待回调企稳后,在判断后续 | | 方向 | | 跌涨停板:2508-2606合约调整为18%。 | | ...

2025年11月26日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 财联社11月17日电，据CCTV国际时讯报道，联合国安理会预计将于当地时间11月17日就一份涉加沙战后安排问题的决议草案进行表决。从联合国目前的 日程我排来看，相关表决有可能于美东时间当天下午，也就是北京时间明天（11月18日）清晨进行。将被付诸表决的决议草案由美国起草，旨在支持美国 总统特朗普提出的所谓"加沙和平计划"。据悉，安理会内部围绕这一草案已经过多轮谈判，最新版本中主要有几项内容目前存在争议: 首先是该草案将授 权组建一支"国际稳定部队"，该部队将与以色列、埃及以及新丘培训的巴勒斯坦警察合作，协助保障边境地区安全，实现加沙地带非军事化，并致力于" 永久解除非国家武装团体的武器"，保护平民，并确保人道主义援助通道畅通；草案还授权成立一个"和平委员会"——也就是加沙地带的过渡台理机构, 理论上将由特朗普担任主席，其任期将持续至2027年底。此外，与先前版本不同的是，最新版本的草案提到了未来可能建立的巴勒斯坦国。这份套案称, 一旦巴斯斯坦民族汉力机构完成要求的改革，且加沙地带重建工作后动，"最终可能为巴勒斯坦人民实现自决与建国的可信路径创造条件"。目前以 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: November 26, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rumor of resuming shipping routes caused a significant drop in the futures market, but the official has refuted it. The market is mainly affected by trading sentiment, and there is no obvious fluctuation in freight rates. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The core factors affecting freight rates are traditional seasonality and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The tariff issue has a marginal effect. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On November 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 946.44 points, down 5.33% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 955.93 points, down 9.17% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1393.56 points, down 57.82 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1367 USD/TEU, down 3.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1645 USD/FEU, down 9.76% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1122.79 points, up 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1432.96 points, up 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 850.96 points, up 0.6% from the previous period [3] Market Conditions - On November 25, the main contract 2602 closed at 1453.5, a decrease of 7.78%, with a trading volume of 51,400 lots and an open interest of 48,200 lots, a decrease of 4946 lots from the previous day [4]. - The market dropped significantly, with heavy trading volume and intense long - short competition. The market fluctuated widely [4]. Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - For risk - takers, it was previously recommended to lightly try long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range. After the significant drop in the market, it is not recommended to add positions or hold losses. Stop - loss should be set [5]. Arbitrage Strategy - In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [5]. Long - term Strategy - It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction before making further decisions [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Weak Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [3] - SSE 50: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weak Oscillation [6] - Offset Paper: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Palm Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Soybean Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean No.2: Weak Oscillation [8] - Soybean No.1: Weak Oscillation [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillation with a Slight Uptrend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide - range Oscillation [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the steel mill profit is squeezed again, but the short - term negative feedback probability is low, with the price oscillating strongly at a high level [2] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply concerns, and the price is in a weak adjustment state in the short term [2] - The downstream demand for rolled steel and rebar is weak, and the price is in a bottom - oscillating state, depending on production reduction policies and macro policies [2] - The glass demand is weak, and the price is weak, with the need to focus on production line cold repair and policies [2][3] - The stock index futures/options market has short - term adjustments, and the medium - term trend is still optimistic [3] - The gold price is supported in the long term by the Fed's interest - rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks, with short - term fluctuations [4] - The log price is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to supply pressure and weak demand [4][6] - The pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly due to cost support weakening and poor demand [6] - The oil price is expected to operate in a range, and the meal price is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by supply, demand, and policies [6][8] - The live pig price is expected to oscillate, with short - term downward pressure on the settlement price and upward support for the slaughter rate [8] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely due to supply and demand factors [10] - The polyester products' prices are affected by supply, demand, and raw material prices, showing different trends such as oscillation and weak adjustment [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 million tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 million tons to 2939.5 million tons, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.28 million tons. The demand core is in the real estate, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by import news and supply concerns, the futures price dropped sharply. The fourth round of price increases by coke enterprises has been implemented, but the profit repair is limited, and the market has different views on the fifth - round increase [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: The downstream demand is weak, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The steel price stop - falling depends on production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2] - **Glass**: The spot price is weak, and the demand is dragged down by the real - estate竣工. The inventory is increasing, and the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the surplus problem [2][3] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose 0.95%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.25%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 1.31%. Some sectors had capital inflows or outflows, and geopolitical news affected the market [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 1bp, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan. The bond market showed a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: In a high - interest - rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the gold pricing mechanism is changing. The Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term factors, and long - term support comes from multiple aspects [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, inflation, and geopolitical risks [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume decreased, the import volume changed, the inventory increased, and the spot price was weak. The supply was under pressure, and the demand was hard to increase [4][6] - **Pulp**: The spot price was divided, the cost support weakened, the paper - mill demand was poor, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Oils**: The US soybean crushing reached a record high, the palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the domestic oil supply was abundant while the demand was weak. The price was expected to operate in a range [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks were adjusted, the global soybean supply was relatively loose, and the domestic meal supply was abundant. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [6][8] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight fluctuated, the settlement price decreased by 2.58%, the demand recovered slightly, and the slaughter rate increased. The price was expected to oscillate with short - term downward pressure [8] Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material prices in different regions changed, the output in some areas was affected by the weather, the demand was supported by the auto industry, and the inventory was accumulating. The price was expected to oscillate widely [10] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical easing led to oil - price decline, and the supply was strong while the demand was boosted by the polyester load rebound, with wide - range oscillation [10] - **PTA**: The cost was affected by oil prices, the short - term supply - demand improved, but the long - term situation was poor, and the price followed the cost [10] - **MEG**: There was long - term inventory pressure, and the short - term price was weak with upward pressure [10] - **PR**: The raw - material support was weak, and the market was expected to adjust weakly [10] - **PF**: The current supply - demand was okay, but the future expectation was negative, and the price was expected to adjust weakly [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, rebar, and soda ash are rated as "Oscillating"; glass is rated as "Weak" [2]. - **Financial**: Shanghai 50, CSI 300, 2 - year treasury bonds, and 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillating"; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "Rebounding"; 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Upward"; gold and silver are rated as "High - level Oscillating" [3]. - **Light Industry**: Logs are rated as "Bottom - level Oscillating"; pulp, double - offset paper are rated as "Weakly Oscillating" [4][6]. - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "Range - bound"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1 are rated as "Weakly Oscillating" [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Weakly Bullish Oscillating" [7][9]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Oscillating"; PX, PTA are rated as "Oscillating"; MEG is rated as "Wide - range Oscillating"; PR is rated as "On - hold"; PF is rated as "On - hold" [12]. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different industries having their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors. Some industries are affected by global supply and demand, policy changes, and geopolitical events, while others are more influenced by domestic factors such as production capacity, inventory levels, and consumption demand [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, while 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 tons to 2939.5 tons. Daily hot - metal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.28 tons. The demand core lies in the real - estate sector, with new construction at 2005 levels. The supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the iron - ore price will mainly oscillate strongly at a high level [2]. - **Coal Coke**: Affected by Mongolia's import target and heating - season supply - guarantee meetings, the coal - coke futures market tumbled. Although the fourth price increase for coke enterprises has been implemented, profit repair is limited. The supply concern in the coking - coal industry has intensified, and the market is in an adjustment state [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Downstream demand is weak, and winter - storage replenishment has not started. Steel prices depend on the implementation of output reduction and anti - "involution" policies. Currently, prices are in bottom - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage [2]. - **Glass**: Spot prices are weak, and the market has been declining since early November due to various events. Real - estate completion decline drags down demand, and inventory is increasing. Attention should be paid to production - line cold repairs and policies for potential market stabilization [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is in an oscillating state [2]. Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market had short - term adjustments but remains optimistic in the medium term. High - tech industries are growing, with high - tech service and manufacturing revenues showing double - digit growth [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year treasury - bond yield increased, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net injection of 557 billion yuan. The bond market is in a slight rebound trend [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and factors such as central - bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and physical - gold demand in China are driving the price. Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical events are short - term influencing factors. Silver also shows a high - level oscillating trend [3][5]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Port daily shipments decreased, and inventory is under pressure. Spot prices are weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4]. - **Pulp**: Spot prices are differentiated, and cost support for pulp prices is weakening. The paper - making industry's low profitability and high inventory lead to weak demand, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: Supply is stable, and the market is cautious. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Oils**: U.S. soybean crushing is at a record high, but the biodiesel policy is uncertain. Malaysian palm - oil production and inventory are high, and exports are weak. Domestic oil supply is abundant, and prices are expected to continue range - bound [6]. - **Meals**: The U.S. soybean production, exports, and ending stocks are all down, but the global soybean supply is still relatively loose. Domestic soybean - meal supply is sufficient, and demand is cautious. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight shows mixed changes. Demand has recovered slightly, but with the increase in supply, the settlement price may face downward pressure. The slaughter - enterprise operating rate is slowly rising, and the average price of live pigs is expected to oscillate [7][9]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Raw - material prices in different regions are affected by weather. Production in Hainan is lower than expected. Demand from tire enterprises is weak, and inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely [12]. - **Polyester**: Different polyester products have different trends. PX and PTA are affected by oil prices and supply - demand changes; MEG has a long - term inventory pressure; PR and PF are affected by raw - material prices and demand [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic, and the high - tech industry continues to grow. The interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend rebounds slightly [3]. - The coal - coke market is adjusting at a high level due to concerns about supply resumption. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to remain stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%, and the long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to weak spot prices, increased supply, and weak demand [6]. - Natural rubber prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term due to strong cost support and weak demand [7]. - Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak demand [8]. - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9]. - Hog prices may remain volatile as sufficient supply is offset by increased consumption [10]. Summary by Related Categories Stock - Bond Market - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, with the medium - term trend remaining optimistic. The high - tech industry continues to grow. Treasury bond interest rates are consolidating, and the market rebounds slightly [3] Black Industry - Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the coal - coke market adjusts at a high level. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to be stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4] Gold Market - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%. The long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5] Log Market - Spot log prices are weak, supply is under pressure, demand is hard to sustain, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] Rubber Market - Due to rainfall in the main production areas, cost support is strong. Demand is weak, and prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Soybean and Soybean Meal Market - US soybean export is weak, domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8] Oil and Chemical Market - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9] Hog Market - Hog supply is sufficient, consumption may increase, and prices may remain volatile [10]

中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案，运价走势的逻辑 还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上，目前现货价格小幅下 降。综上述,我们认为,关税问题已经呈现边际化效应,目前核心还 是现货运价的走向，主力合约已经出现季节性反弹，建议轻仓参与或 观望。 2025年11月24日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 现货价格短期见顶，盘面连续回落，盘面回撤至区间可尝试补仓，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 11月17日 | 11月21日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1357.67点，较上期下跌9.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）946.44点，较上期下跌5.33% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点，较上期下跌6.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 951.65点，较上期下跌2.83% | | 11月21日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）955.93点，较上期下跌9.17% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1393.56点，较上期 ...