Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly, with an increase in short - term positions [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating at a low level [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Moving upward [4] - CSI 1000: Moving upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Moving upward [4] - Gold: Oscillating at a high level [4] - Silver: Oscillating at a high level [4] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [6] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Oscillating [8] - PTA: Oscillating [8] - MEG: On the sidelines [8] - PR: On the sidelines [8] - PF: On the sidelines [8] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is currently strong in the short - term but may face downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term due to factors such as steel mill production cuts and Sino - US trade frictions [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is weak, with high supply pressure and an oversupply situation in coke [2]. - The steel market, including rolled steel and rebar, is expected to oscillate at a low level due to concerns about supply, demand, and policy [2]. - The glass market lacks upward momentum as the real - estate industry is in an adjustment period and demand is weak [2]. - The stock index market shows different trends, and with the improvement of the external market and the implementation of monetary policies, long - positions in stock indices are recommended [4]. - The bond market is expected to have a reasonable liquidity level, and long - positions in bonds are recommended [4]. - The precious metals market, including gold and silver, is expected to oscillate at a high level, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, trade policies, and inflation [4]. - The pulp and log markets are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as cost reduction and weak demand [6]. - The oil and fat market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to sufficient supply and weak consumption [6]. - The soybean meal and related products market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to increased supply and reduced demand [6]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and weak driving forces [8]. - The chemical products market, including PX, PTA, and others, shows different trends mainly affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and macro - factors [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals Industry - **Iron ore**: Future iron ore shipments may seasonally increase. Steel mills' profitability and iron - water production are high, but steel production may peak in May. Steel exports face tariff risks, and domestic demand is entering the off - season. In the short - term, the market is strong, while in the medium - to - long - term, short - positions in the 09 contract are recommended [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Mongolian coal supply is limited, but the overall supply pressure is high. Coke production is increasing, and inventory is rising. The market is weak and follows the trend of finished steel products [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Steel mills' profits are good, but there are concerns about external demand and domestic demand. The market inventory is low, but production is high, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed production, and coal prices have fallen, improving profits. However, demand is weak, and the market lacks upward momentum [2]. Financial Market - **Stock indices**: Different stock indices show different trends. The Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved progress, and with the implementation of monetary policies, long - positions in stock indices are recommended [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Interest rates are oscillating, and the market will maintain a reasonable liquidity level. Long - positions in bonds are recommended [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate at a high level, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, trade policies, and inflation [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable, but the cost price has decreased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Logs**: Demand has declined after a peak, and supply pressure has decreased. The cost has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: Palm oil production is increasing seasonally, and soybean supply is abundant. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Meals**: Soybean supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing after the holiday. The market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [6]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Supply may be affected by the postponed opening of the Thai rubber season, but domestic supply is increasing. Demand is uncertain, and inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PX**: It follows the trend of oil prices, which are oscillating at a low level due to demand and geopolitical pressures [8]. - **PTA**: Supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [8]. - **MEG**: Although short - term supply and demand are not bad, the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the market is on the sidelines [8]. - **PR and PF**: The market shows different trends due to factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and industry processing fees [8].

2025年5月9日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 5月8日主力合约2506收盘1283.0，跌幅为3.64%，成交量4.55万 手,持仓量3.81万手,较上日减仓1368手。 宏观市场利好情绪减缓，叠加现货运价维持低位多空博弈下盘面整体 低位震荡。之后需对关税政策、中东局势以及现货运价情况关注。 | 短期策略：短期外盘政策动荡，操作难度较大，各合约若要参与建议以 | | --- | | 中长线为主。 | | 套利策略：关税发酵背景下，可关注反套结构，窗口期较短，波动较大 | | 长期策略：建议风险偏好者可尝试2508合约跌至1600点以下轻仓试 | | 多, 2510合约1200点以下轻仓试多, 设置好止损, 冲高止盈。 | | 跌涨停板:2504-2602合约为16%。 | | 我司保证金:2504-2602合约为26%。 | | 日内开仓限制: 2504-2602所有合约为100手。 | MSK公告25年红海全航线封闭，盘面低位震荡，风险偏好者可提前布局贸易战缓和预期 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月5日 | 5月2日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Rebound [6] - Palm oil: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Oscillation [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] - Plastics: Oscillation [9] - PP: Oscillation [11] - PVC: Oscillating weakly [11] Core Views - The iron ore market is currently strong in the short term but bearish in the medium to long term due to potential steel mill production cuts and trade frictions [2] - The coal and coke market is weak, with high supply pressure and an unchanged pattern of oversupply in coke [2] - The rebar market is expected to oscillate at a low level due to high production, potential export impacts, and seasonal demand decline [2] - The glass market lacks upward momentum as the real estate industry remains in an adjustment period [2] - The stock index market is expected to rebound as the external market stabilizes and risk aversion eases [4] - The Treasury bond market is expected to rise as the central bank maintains reasonable liquidity [4] - The precious metal market is expected to oscillate at a high level, with gold prices influenced by interest rate and tariff policies [4] - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand and reduced cost support [6] - The log market is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate, with potential marginal improvement in demand [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term due to ample supply and seasonal demand decline [6] - The meal market is expected to oscillate bearishly as soybean supply increases and demand weakens after the holiday [6] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased supply and uncertain demand [9] - The chemical product market shows various trends, with prices mainly influenced by supply and demand, raw material prices, and macro factors [9][11] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose and then fell. Global iron ore shipments may increase seasonally in the coming weeks. Steel mill profitability has improved, and hot metal production remains high, but steel production may peak in May. Steel exports face tariff risks, and domestic demand is entering a seasonal off - season, which may lead to steel mill production cuts and be bearish for iron ore in the medium to long term [2] - **Coal and coke**: Mongolian coal supply growth is limited, but the overall supply pressure remains high. Steel spot trading is poor due to tariff policies, and market confidence is low. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and coal and coke prices mainly follow the trend of finished steel products [2] - **Rebar**: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose and then fell. Steel mill profits are good, and supply pressure is increasing. There are doubts about external demand and domestic demand in May. The market inventory is low, which supports the price, but overall, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed operation, and daily melting volume has slightly fluctuated. Coal prices have fallen, improving profits. Factory inventories have slightly decreased, but there are regional differences. Overall, demand is weak, and the market lacks upward momentum [2] Financial and Precious Metal Industry - **Stock index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. Aerospace and military industry, and communication equipment sectors had capital inflows. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk aversion, stock index futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Treasury bond**: Yields of Treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations to inject liquidity. The market is expected to maintain reasonable liquidity, and Treasury bond futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and trade policies. The current upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry and Oil and Fat Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is strong, but the decline in external market prices weakens cost support. Paper mills' profitability is low, and demand is poor, so the pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Logs**: Log demand has declined after a peak, but supply pressure has decreased due to reduced arrivals. Spot prices are stable, and the price is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate [6] - **Oil and fat**: Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia is in a seasonal growth period, and soybean production in South America is abundant. Supply is ample, while demand is in a seasonal off - season. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term [6] - **Meal**: U.S. soybean planting conditions may improve, and South American soybeans are in a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and meal supply is expected to increase while demand weakens after the holiday, so the meal price is expected to oscillate bearishly [6] Soft Commodity and Chemical Industry - **Rubber**: Supply is expected to increase as the main producing areas start the tapping season. Demand is uncertain, and inventory is still relatively high. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PX**: Affected by demand and geopolitical factors, oil prices are oscillating at a low level. PX prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [9] - **PTA**: Raw material prices are volatile, and PTA supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Domestic production capacity utilization has increased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. However, due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, the price fluctuates widely [9] - **Plastics and related products**: Different plastic products have different supply - demand situations and cost factors. Overall, prices are affected by supply, demand, raw material prices, and macro - sentiment [9][11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US had fluctuations in tariff policies towards Canada, Mexico, Europe and other countries. As the pricing window for long - term contracts on US routes approaches, retaliatory tariffs have become a negotiation tool, adding significant uncertainties to the future of the shipping industry. Although shipping companies intend to support prices, price wars among alliances are inevitable. Two key aspects need attention: the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [4]. - The market is affected by factors such as tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates. The main contract 2506 closed at 1288.2 on May 7, with a decline of 1.83%, a trading volume of 53,600 lots, and an open interest of 39,500 lots, an increase of 3,642 lots from the previous day [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Freight Index - On May 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1,379.07 points, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1,320.69 points, a 7.3% increase from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1,340.93 points, a decrease of 6.91 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1,200 USD/TEU, a 4.76% decrease from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 2,272 USD/FEU, a 6.12% increase from the previous period [2]. - On May 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 930.24 points, a 2.40% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 764 points, a 4.04% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1,477.93 points, a 19.67% increase from the previous period. On April 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1,121.08 points, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1,497.15 points, a 0.2% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 837.43 points, a 1.7% increase from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity. The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in March was 51.2, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3]. - In April, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. It is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse - spread structure. The window period is short and the fluctuations are large [4]. - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1,600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1,200 points, set stop - losses, and take profits when the price rises [4]. Contract Information - On May 7, the main contract 2506 closed at 1288.2, with a decline of 1.83%, a trading volume of 53,600 lots, and an open interest of 39,500 lots, an increase of 3,642 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2504 - 2602 has been adjusted to 19%. The company's margin for contracts 2504 - 2602 has been adjusted to 29%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical and Diplomatic Events - After a large - scale air strike by Israel, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen stated that they would not give up their support for the Gaza Strip at any cost and that the counter - attack would be devastating [4]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and hold talks with the US side during the visit. China decided to engage with the US after careful evaluation, considering global expectations, Chinese interests, and the appeals of the US industry and consumers [5].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 8 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-8） | | | | 铁矿：昨日国新办新闻发布会后，铁矿盘面价格快速冲高回落。未来几周， 全球铁矿发运或季节性回升，钢厂高炉复产带动铁水产量维持高位，全国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 日均铁水产量 245.42 万吨，环比增 1.07 万吨。按目前铁水走势看，5 月 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 份将是钢材产量的峰值，同时钢材出口受关税扰动风险上升，国内需求步 | | | | | 入季节性淡季，钢厂销售压力加剧或导致利润收缩，自发性减产还是被动 | | | | | 减产，其减产的总量都对原料端形成利空。短期铁矿现实端偏强，价格可 | | | | | 能在当前位置震荡整理。中长期来看，考虑到钢厂限产，铁水或见顶回落 | | | | | 以及中美贸易摩擦延续，铁矿 09 合约逢高空配，密切关注宏观政策变化、 | | | | | 基本面供需情况以及市场情绪变化。 | | | 煤焦 | 偏弱 | 煤焦：进口方面，蒙古口岸 ...

财联社5月6日电，总台记者当地时间6日获悉，有巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）官员表示，有关同以色列的进一步加沙停火谈判毫无意义。 2025年5月7日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 中方决定与美方接触, 现货运价相对稳定, 盘面震荡运行, 风险偏好者可提前布局贸易战缓和预期 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 4月25日 5月5日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）908.48点，较上期下跌1.39% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1379.07点，较上期下跌3.5% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）796.14点，较上期下跌5.19% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1320.69点，较上期上涨7.3% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1235.01点，较上期上涨1.53% 4月30日 4月30日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1340.93点，较上期下跌6.91点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1121.08点,较上期下跌0.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1200USD/TEU, 较上期下跌4.76% 中国出口集装箱 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 7 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-7） | | | | 周，全球铁矿发运或季节性回升，钢厂高炉复产带动铁水产量维持高位， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 铁矿：今日一揽子金融政策支持稳市场预期，黑色夜盘受到支撑。未来几 | | | | | 全国日均铁水产量 245.42 万吨，环比增 1.07 万吨。按目前铁水走势看，5 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 月份将是钢材产量的峰值，同时钢材出口受关税扰动风险上升，国内需求 | | | | | 步入季节性淡季，钢厂销售压力加剧或导致利润收缩，自发性减产还是被 | | | | | 动减产，其减产的总量都对原料端形成利空。短期铁矿基本面矛盾不突出， | | | | | 盘面反弹态势，中长期来看，考虑到钢厂限产，铁水或见顶回落以及中美 | | | | | 贸易摩擦延续，铁矿 09 合约逢高试空，关注政策落地情况。 | | | | | 煤焦：进口方面，蒙古口岸通关量维持低位，叠加竞拍市场持续低迷，蒙 | | | 煤焦 ...

美国4月标普全球制造业PM1初值50.7，预期49.1，3月终值50.2; 服务业PM1初值51.4，预期52.8，3月终值54.4; 综合PM1初值51.2，预期 52.2, 3月终值53.5。 | 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向，4月美国将对 | | | --- | --- | | 加拿大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策再出反复,临近美线长 | | | 协定价窗口,报复性关税被加入谈判手段,对未来海运走向增加 | 短期策略:短期外盘政策动荡,操作难度较大,各合约若要参与建 | | 一个较大的扰动因素,在运价上各船司有意挺价,但绕不开联盟 | 议以中长线为主。 | | 间的价格战。综上述,我们认为一需要关注MSK与MSC在第二 | 套利策略:关税发酵背景下,可关注反套结构,窗口期较短,波动 | | 炭 季度开展的价格战问题,二是激进的关税政策下终端需求的反馈 | 较大。 | | | 长期策略:建议风险偏好者可尝试2508合约跌至1600点以下轻仓 | | | 试多，2510合约1200点以下轻仓试多，设置好止损。 | | 4月30日主力合约2506收盘1324.3, 涨幅为3.42%, 成交量 | ...

现货运价维持跌势,多空博弈下,空头情绪稍占上风,盘面低位震荡 。之后需对关税政策、中东局势以及现货运价情况关注。 短期策略:短期外盘政策动荡,操作难度较大,各合约若要参与建议以 中长线为主。 套利策略: 关税发酵背景下, 可关注反套结构,窗口期较短,波动较大 长期策略： 建议风险偏好者可尝试2508合约跌至1600点以下轻仓试 多, 2510合约1200点以下轻仓试多,设置好止损。 跌涨停板:2504-2602合约调整为19%。 我司保证金：2504-2602合约调整为29%。 日内开仓限制: 2504-2602所有合约为100手。 元 IEI 财联社4月28日电，美国财政部外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）发表声明，宣布对向也门胡塞武装提供支持的三艘船只及其船主实施制裁。声明表示，胡塞 能 化 武装部署导弹、无人机和水雷袭击红海商业航运。声明称，胡塞武装还通过其控制的潜口运输货物，从中牟取暴利。 财联社4月29日电，自然资源部29日消息，一季度，沿海地方和涉海部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整推确全面 贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，扎实推动海洋经济高质量发展，海洋资源保供 ...

元 IEI 美国4月标普全球制造业PM1初值50.7，预期49.1，3月终值50.2; 服务业PM1初值51.4，预期52.8，3月终值54.4; 综合PMN初值51.2，预期52.2，3月 终值53.5。 财联社4月28日电，美国财政部外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）发表声明，宣布对向也门胡塞武装提供支持的三艘船只及其船主实施制裁。声明表示，胡塞 能 化 武装部署导弹、无人机和水雷袭击红海商业航运。声明称，胡塞武装还通过其控制的潜口运输货物，从中牟取暴利。 财联社4月29日电，自然资源部29日消息，一季度，沿海地方和涉海部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整推确全面 贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，扎实推动海洋经济高质量发展，海洋资源保供水平持续增强。新质生产力加快形成，海洋对外贸易总体平稳。初步 t 季度海洋生产总值2.5万亿元，同比增长5.7%，高于国内生产总值增速0.3个百分点。 区 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 提示 5000 3000 1000 上海集装箱指数 SCFIS与期货价格走势 -EC2510 - EC2512 - EC2602 FC2506 ...