Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Recommend shorting at high prices [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - Gold: High - level sideways [4] - Silver: High - level sideways [5] - Pulp: Weak sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean oil: Weak sideways [5] - Palm oil: Weak sideways [5] - Rapeseed oil: Weak sideways [5] - Soybean meal: Weak sideways [7] - Rapeseed meal: Weak sideways [7] - Soybean No. 2: Weak sideways [7] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [7] - Rubber: Sideways [7] - PX: Sideways [7] - PTA: Sideways [7] - MEG: Low - level range [7] - PR: Hold off [8] - PF: Hold off [8] - Plastic: Weak sideways [8] - PP: Weak sideways [8] - PVC: Weak sideways [8] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the iron ore market are gradually weakening due to repeated tariff disturbances and the resurgence of crude steel production restrictions. The supply of coking coal and coke is in an oversupply situation, and the market is pessimistic. The steel market is affected by policies and demand, with a cautious outlook. The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, with a short - term low - level sideways trend. The stock index market has a positive outlook with the easing of external market risks. The bond market is under pressure, and long positions in bonds should be reduced. The precious metals market is affected by multiple factors, with high - level sideways trends expected. The pulp market has weak demand and falling prices. The forest products market has marginal improvement, with a sideways trend. The oil and fat market has sufficient supply and is expected to be weak sideways. The rubber market has weak short - term driving forces and is expected to be weak sideways. The chemical product market is affected by raw material prices and supply - demand relationships, with mostly sideways or weak sideways trends [2][4][5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Tariff disturbances and crude steel production restrictions have led to a weakening of fundamentals. Overseas iron ore shipments are increasing, and with the improvement of weather and the end of mine maintenance, shipments and arrivals are expected to rise in the second quarter. Steel mill profits are okay, but there is an expectation of a peak in molten iron production, and market sentiment is pessimistic. Radical investors can hold a light position in the iron ore 09 contract and avoid uncertainties during the May Day holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Domestic coking coal production is still high, and supply has increased. Affected by tariff policies, steel spot trading is poor, and market confidence is frustrated. Most coking enterprises are at the break - even point, and the second round of coke price increases has not been implemented. The supply of coke is in an oversupply situation, and the overall market follows the trend of finished products [2] - **Rebar**: At the beginning of the month, the tariff impact landed, but the total reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut tools have not been implemented. The market is cautious. At the end of the month, the crude steel policy has an impact, and the supply - side contraction expectation supports steel prices. Rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and cost support is strengthening. Demand is falling, and there are signs of a peak. It is recommended that investors hold a light position during the May Day holiday [2] - **Glass**: The conversion of 9 glass coal - fired production lines in Shahe City to clean gas has increased the cost of the far - month contract, making the far - month contract stronger than the near - month contract. Recently, coal prices have fallen rapidly, and the profit of coal - fired glass has improved. The start - up rate and daily output of float glass have declined, and supply has decreased slightly. Downstream demand is still weak, and inventory has started to accumulate. It is recommended to hold a light position during the May Day holiday and pay attention to spot trading, macro policies, and inventory changes [2] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors were different. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk - aversion sentiment, long positions in stock index futures can be held [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has decreased, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. Interest rates are fluctuating, and the market is under pressure. Long positions in Treasury bonds should be reduced [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. It has multiple attributes such as currency, finance, and risk - aversion. The current logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and short - term fluctuations may be caused by the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies. Silver is also in a high - level sideways trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to inflation and employment data [4][5] Forest Products - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has continued to decline, and the cost price has also decreased, weakening the support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and demand is weak. Pulp prices are expected to be weak sideways [5] - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, but demand has declined after reaching a phased high. The arrival volume in the near future has decreased, and supply pressure has eased. The inventory at ports has remained stable. The cost has decreased, and the market price is expected to be sideways [5] Oil and Fats - The Southeast Asian palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. South American soybeans have a record - high harvest, and domestic soybean arrivals have increased significantly. The supply of the three major oils is sufficient, and with the end of pre - holiday stocking, the oil and fat market is expected to be weak sideways [5] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply side is expected to increase in May as the main domestic and overseas production areas start tapping. The demand side has weak sales in the semi - steel tire industry, and the overall demand is uncertain. The inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the price is expected to be weak sideways. Attention should be paid to the macro and policy aspects [7] Chemical Products - **PX**: There is a lack of positive drivers, and oil prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. The domestic PX load is fluctuating, and the demand from the PTA side has declined. PX prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [7] - **PTA**: Raw material prices are volatile, and the PXN spread is around $184/ton, and the spot TA processing margin is around 429 yuan/ton. The TA load has increased, and the polyester load is maintained. The short - term supply - demand situation is in a state of inventory reduction, mainly affected by raw material prices [7] - **MEG**: The domestic MEG load has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The polyester load is stable. Raw material prices are weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [7] - **Plastic Products**: Most chemical products are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and policies. The market is in a sideways or weak sideways trend. For example, the plastic market is affected by concerns about economic decline and new device production, with a weak outlook. The PP market is affected by falling oil prices and supply - demand relationships, with a weak sideways trend. The PVC market has a decline in upstream and downstream starts, and inventory has decreased, but the market is still expected to be weak sideways [8]

加沙地带全面撤军、开放连接加沙的过境口岸，并实现长期停火。除此之外，哈马斯不会回应任何不包含以色列全面停止对加沙地带侵略的停火提 议，并且哈马斯不接受以色列提出所谓的有关"加沙战后"的相关说法，而是坚持要求以军"停止侵略"的表述。（央视新闻） 财联社4月25日电，记者提问称：据报道，美国政府知情人士表示，美中仍在就芬太尼问题进行谈判，但中方"不够真诚"，美方可能采取更多惩 罚措施迫使中国采取实质性行动。请问中方有何评论? 外交部发言人郭嘉昆表示，芬太尼是美国的问题，不是中国的问题，责任在美国自身。美方 无视中方善意，对中国无理加征芬太尼关税，这是典型的霸凌行径，严重破坏双方在禁毒领域的对话合作。美方应该清楚，抹黑攻击无法掩盖美方 自身的失责，以怨报德也无助于问题的解决，施压威胁更不是同中国打交道的正确方式。 区段 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 提示 SCFIS与期货价格走势 上海集装箱指数 EC2508 -EC2510 -- EC2512 CFIS 欧式 12.000.00 6.000.00 4,000.00 2,000,00 1,600 1,100 0.00 600 at and and a ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-28） | | | | 铁矿：关税扰动反复，以及粗钢限产政策又起，铁矿基本面逐步走弱。随 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 着天气转暖和矿山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运和到港量有望 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 逐步回升。当前钢厂利润尚可，粗钢限产政策再起，铁水见顶预期。钢厂 | | | | | 铁矿库存低位，五一小长假存补库备货预期，以及 4 月底政治局会议大概 | | | | | 率围绕稳地产和消费复苏进行部署，以推动经济稳定增长。反倾销和关税 | | | | | 影响仍将持续，出口依旧面临下滑，粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制，激进 | | | | | 的投资者入场的铁矿 09 合约持有。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：国内焦煤产量仍偏高，焦煤总体产地供应有所增加，受关税影响， | | | | | 钢材现货成交不佳，市场信心受挫，焦煤成交氛围有所转弱，市场对后续 | | | | | 预期并不乐观。目前 ...

2025年4月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 现货运价持续走低，叠加宏观情绪回落，主力合约大幅下跌，近期操作难度较高，风险偏好者可等待反弹机会 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 4月21日 | 4月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1508.44点, 较上期上涨7.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 921.24点,较上期下跌4.20% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1368.41点, 较上期下跌13.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 839.73点,较上期下跌10.11% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1216.42点,较上期下跌0.46% | | 4月18日 | 4月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1370.58点,较上期下跌24.10点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1110.94点,较上期上涨0.3% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1316USD/TEU,较上期下跌2.9 ...

交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 25 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-25） | | | | 铁矿：关税扰动反复，短期逻辑转向供需基本面。随着天气转暖和矿山检 修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运和到港量有望逐步回升。当前钢厂 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 利润尚可，铁水需求好于前期市场预期，基本面边际有所好转。钢厂铁矿 | | | | | 库存低位，五一小长假存补库备货预期，以及 4 月底政治局会议大概率围 | | | | | 绕稳地产和消费复苏进行部署，以推动经济稳定增长。反倾销和关税影响 | | | | | 仍将持续，出口依旧面临下滑，基于远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制， | | | | | 激进的投资尝试铁矿 09 合约逢高空配。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：国内焦煤产量仍偏高，焦煤总体产地供应有所增加，受关税影响， | | | | | 钢材现货成交不佳，市场信心受挫，焦煤成交氛围有所转弱，市场对后续 | | | | | 预期并不乐观。目前多数焦企处于盈亏平衡状态 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-24） | | | | 铁矿：海外避险情绪暂时降温，预计税率将大幅降低，短期逻辑转向供需 基本面。随着天气转暖和矿山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运和 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 到港量有望逐步回升。当前钢厂利润尚可，铁水需求好于前期市场预期， | | | | | 港口库存延续四周去库，基本面边际有所好转。钢厂铁矿库存低位，五一 | | | | | 小长假存补库备货预期，以及 4 月底政治局会议大概率围绕稳地产和消费 | | | | | 复苏进行部署，以推动经济稳定增长，短期铁矿呈现反弹走势。反倾销和 | | | | | 关税影响仍将持续，出口依旧面临下滑，基于远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 预期压制，激进的投资尝试铁矿 09 合约逢高空配。 | | | | | 煤焦：国内焦煤产量仍偏高，焦煤总体产地供应有所增加，受关税影响， | | | | | 钢材现货成交不佳，市场信心受 ...

2025年4月24日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 美对华关税或将下调，市场情绪稍有缓和，盘面大幅震荡，近期操作难度较高，风险偏好者可等待反弹机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 4月18日 4月21日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 921.24点, 较上期下跌4.20% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1508.44点, 较上期上涨7.6% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 839.73点, 较上期下跌10.11% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1368.41点, 较上期下跌13.8% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1216.42点, 较上期下跌0.46% 4月18日 4月18日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1370.58点,较上期下跌24.10点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1110.94点,较上期上涨0.3% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1316USD/TEU,较上期下跌2.9% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1486.14点,较上期下跌0.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

2025年4月23日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 特朗普发言再出反复, 昨夜盘异动反弹, 近期操作难度较高, 风险偏好者可等待反弹机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 4月21日 | 4月18日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1508.44点，较上期上涨7.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）921.24点，较上期下跌4.20% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1368.41点，较上期下跌13.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 839.73点，较上期下跌10.11% | | 4月18日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1216.42点，较上期下跌0.46% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1370.58点，较上期下跌24.10点， | 4月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1316USD/TEU，较上期下跌2.9% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1110.94点，较上期上涨0.3% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2 ...

交易提示 1 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | | 沪深 300 | 震荡 | 录 0.14%，中证 500 股指收录-0.32%，中证 1000 股指收录-0.06%。多元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 金融、港口板块资金流入，互联网、电脑硬件板块资金流出。人社部、财 | | | | | 政部、税务总局三部门联合印发《关于延续实施失业保险稳岗惠民政策措 | | | 中证 500 | 上行 | 施的通知》，支持企业稳定岗位，助力提升职业技能，兜牢失业保障底线； | | | | | 对不裁员少裁员的参保企业继续实施稳岗返还政策至 2025 年底，中小微 | | | 中证 1000 | 上行 | 企业按不超过企业及其职工上年度实际缴纳失业保险费的 60%返还、大型 | | | | | 企业返还比例不超过 30%。据外汇局统计，一季度，银行结汇 5290 亿美 | | | 2 年期国债 | 震荡 | 元，售汇 5866 亿美元；银行代客涉外收入 18871 亿美元，对外付款 18354 | | | | | 亿美元。外汇局表示，一季度，我国外贸克服外 ...

(航运研究小组) 5月宣涨失败，悲观氛围下盘面宽幅震荡，且处于探底过程，近期操作难度较高，风险偏好者可等待反弹机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 4月21日 | 4月18日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1508.44点，较上期上涨7.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 921.24点，较上期下跌4.20% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1368.41点，较上期下跌13.8%。 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 839.73点, 较上期下跌10.11% | | 4月18日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1216.42点, 较上期下跌0.46% | | | 4月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1370.58点,较上期下跌24.10点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1110.94点，较上期上涨0.3% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1316USD/TEU, 较上期下跌2.9%。 | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美 ...