Report Industry Investment Rating - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is challenging, and it is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - With the SCFIS European route index declining again and some shipping companies reducing spot freight rates, the market is cautious, and the futures market may fluctuate widely when the basis converges. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Market - On August 15 - 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9; the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [2] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] Futures Market - On August 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.1, with a gain of 0.01%, a trading volume of 28,100 lots, and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 1677 lots from the previous day [3] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and holding losing positions is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is advisable to wait and see or participate with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Profits should be taken when the contracts rise, and after waiting for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, the subsequent direction can be judged [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, and rolled steel are rated as high-level fluctuations; glass and soda ash are rated as fluctuations [2]. - **Financial Industry**: CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as upward trends; SSE 50 is rated as a rebound; CSI 300 is rated as fluctuations; 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as fluctuations, with the 10 - year treasury bond showing a weakening trend; gold and silver are rated as high - level fluctuations [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as consolidation; logs are rated as range fluctuations; soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as fluctuating upward; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean No. 2 are rated as strongly fluctuating; soybean No. 1 is rated as weakly fluctuating [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as weakly fluctuating [8]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as fluctuations; PX is rated as on - hold; PTA is rated as fluctuations; MEG is rated as buy - on - dips; PR and PF are rated as on - hold [10]. 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, with high - level fluctuations expected. Coal coke has limited short - term adjustment amplitudes, and it's recommended to buy after corrections. Rolled steel has supply reduction expectations, and short - term steel prices are supported by macro and policy factors. Glass has no obvious improvement in short - term supply - demand patterns, and long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Financial Industry**: The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and it's recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. Treasury bond prices are falling, and it's recommended to hold long positions lightly. Gold prices are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, tariff policies, and geopolitical conflicts [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp shows a supply - demand weak pattern and is expected to consolidate. Logs have limited supply pressure and are expected to range - fluctuate. Oils are expected to fluctuate upward, but attention should be paid to correction risks. Meal products are expected to strongly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to soybean weather and arrival conditions [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to decline further, and prices are expected to weakly fluctuate due to increased supply and weak consumption [8]. - **Soft Commodities**: Natural rubber prices are expected to run strongly in the short term due to supply - side benefits. PX is in short supply in the short term, PTA prices follow cost fluctuations, MEG can be bought on dips, and PR and PF are expected to follow cost - side trends [10]. 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly increased, terminal demand is weak, and high - level fluctuations are expected [2]. - **Coal Coke**: The exchange has adjusted trading limits, demand is weak, coal mine inventories are at a low level, and short - term adjustment amplitudes are limited [2]. - **Rolled Steel**: Tangshan's steel mill production - restriction policies are clear, supply reduction is expected, demand is weak, and high - level fluctuations are expected [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, supply - demand patterns have not improved, inventories are increasing, and long - term demand is difficult to recover [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Indexes showed different trends last trading day, funds flowed in and out of different sectors, and it's recommended to hold long positions [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields are rising, the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, and it's recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Pricing mechanisms are changing, affected by multiple factors, and high - level fluctuations are expected [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stable, cost support is weakening, demand is in the off - season, and consolidation is expected [6]. - **Logs**: Port shipments are relatively stable, supply pressure is not large, inventories are decreasing, and cost support is increasing, with range fluctuations expected [6]. - **Oils**: Malaysian palm oil production and inventories are increasing, exports are strong, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and oils are expected to fluctuate upward [6]. - **Meal Products**: US soybean planting area has decreased, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and meal products are expected to strongly fluctuate [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supply - side trading weights are declining, demand - side prices are falling, and prices are expected to weakly fluctuate [8]. Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: Supply - side factors are improving, demand is relatively stable, inventories are decreasing, and prices are expected to run strongly [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX is in short supply in the short term, PTA prices follow cost fluctuations, MEG can be bought on dips, and PR and PF are expected to follow cost - side trends [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - For short - term, risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300; for arbitrage, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position; for long - term, take profit when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction [4] Summary by Related Content Shipping Index - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI for the US West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, the service PMI was 51.2, and the composite PMI was 51, all higher than expected. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - In July, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] Market Conditions - Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [3] - On August 15, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.6, up 1.10%, with a trading volume of 31,100 lots and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3] - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term: Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4] - Long - term: Take profit when the contracts rise, wait for a pullback to stabilize, and then determine the subsequent direction [4] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical News - On the evening of the 16th local time, regarding the possible restart of the Gaza cease - fire negotiations, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that Israel's condition for reaching an agreement is the one - time release of all Israeli detainees and the agreement must meet Israel's conditions for ending the war [5] - On the 13th local time, the Hamas delegation held talks with the Egyptian intelligence chief in Cairo on promoting the cease - fire in Gaza. Hamas hopes to resume cease - fire negotiations as soon as possible [5] Shipping Industry Forecast - Global container shipping volume is expected to grow by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 after a 6% increase in 2024. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 1.8 million TEUs in 2025 and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. There are currently 9.3 million TEUs in global ship orders, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, up from 27% in 2024 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4]. - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position due to large fluctuations [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the callback to stabilize [4]. Summary by Related Information Shipping Indexes - On August 15, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1]. - On August 15, the SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5 [2]. - In the US in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2]. Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [3]. - On August 15, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1373.6, with a gain of 1.10%, a trading volume of 31,100 lots, and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely [3]. Shipping Market Forecast - German container shipping company Hapag - Lloyd expects global container shipping volume to increase by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The expected global ship delivery volume is 3.1 million TEUs in 2024, 1.8 million TEUs in 2025, and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. The current global ship orders are 9.3 million TEUs, accounting for 29% of the global fleet [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile and bullish [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Weakening [4] - Gold: High-level volatile [4] - Silver: High-level volatile [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Volatile and bullish [6] - Soybean meal: Bullish and volatile [8] - Rapeseed meal: Bullish and volatile [8] - Soybean No. 2: Bullish and volatile [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Livestock: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Views - The short-term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the ZZJ meeting fell short of expectations. The domestic supply policy expectations have been temporarily falsified, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market correction due to expectation deviations. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. The coking coal and coke market is supported by supply-side factors, and it is recommended to buy on dips after corrections. The steel market is supported by macro and policy factors in the short term, and it is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels. The glass market is affected by market sentiment and inventory digestion, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term. The stock index market is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The bond market is affected by interest rate changes, and it is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position. The precious metal market is affected by factors such as interest rate policies and geopolitical conflicts, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level. The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate. The log market is affected by seasonal factors and supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. The edible oil market is supported by factors such as export demand and policy, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish. The meal market is affected by factors such as planting area and weather, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile. The agricultural product market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and price trends, and the price is expected to be volatile. The soft commodity market is affected by factors such as weather and inventory, and the price is expected to be volatile. The polyester market is affected by factors such as oil prices and supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile [2][4][6][8][10][11]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments decreased slightly month-on-month but were stronger year-on-year. Domestic arrivals decreased month-on-month, and port inventories increased slightly. Terminal demand was weak, and steel mills had limited motivation to cut production actively. There are expectations of production cuts in the northern region in late August, and the short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, with the market expected to be volatile at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The demand for real estate and infrastructure was weak, and coking coal prices adjusted slightly. The recovery of coal mines was slow, and coal inventories reached the lowest level since March 2024. Downstream enterprises maintained high operating rates, and coal prices were supported in the short term. To break through the previous high, continuous supply reduction is needed [2]. - Rebar: There were news of production restrictions for independent steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan, leading to expectations of supply reduction. Building material demand decreased month-on-month, and external demand was overdrawn in advance. Real estate investment continued to decline, and overall demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance. The profits of the five major steel products were acceptable, and production increased slightly while apparent demand decreased. Steel mill inventories increased rapidly, and social inventories increased. During the military parade in mid-August, there were expectations of supply contraction, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market was not significant. There are still expectations of stable growth in the steel industry in the short term, and it is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment cooled, and the midstream and downstream were in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with significantly weakened restocking demand. There were no changes in production lines, and the operating rate remained stable. Weekly production remained unchanged, and factory inventories continued to increase. It is unlikely for glass factories to stop production during the military parade, and the market is affected by many factors. The midstream and downstream inventories are low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - Soda ash: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth." After the short-term emotion is released and the market adjusts again, attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.70%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.12%, the CSI 500 Index rose 2.16%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.02%. Funds flowed into the securities and power equipment sectors and out of the banking and soft drink equipment sectors. The article in Qiushi Magazine emphasized promoting the healthy and high-quality development of the private economy. In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year. From January to July, national fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment decreased by 12%. The market's bullish sentiment increased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rose 1bp, FR007 rose 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 238 billion yuan on August 15. The market interest rate rebounded, and the bond market declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: In a high-interest-rate environment and the context of globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. Trump's bill may exacerbate the US debt problem, highlighting the de-fiat currency attribute of gold. In the global high-interest-rate environment, the substitution effect of gold for bonds weakens, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds decreases. Geopolitical risks have weakened marginally, but market risk aversion still exists. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for eight consecutive months. The logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that the Fed's interest rate policy will be more cautious this year, and tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk aversion. The latest US data shows that the labor market is unexpectedly weak, and inflation data has slowed down. In the short term, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [4][6]. - Silver: The price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, affected by factors similar to those of gold [6]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The spot market price was mainly consolidating. The latest quoted prices for coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased, weakening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry was low, and paper mills had high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high-priced pulp. Demand was in the off-season, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to consolidate [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume at ports remained flat week-on-week. Demand was in the seasonal off-season, but as the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approached, the willingness of processing plants to stock up increased. The shipment volume from New Zealand to China in July increased by 5% month-on-month, and the expected arrivals in August were low. The expected arrivals last week decreased by 60% week-on-week, and supply pressure was not significant. Port inventories decreased, and spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The cost side provided stronger support, and the price is expected to be volatile [6]. Edible Oils and Meals - Edible oils: In July, Malaysian palm oil continued to increase production and inventory, but the ending inventory of 2.11 million tons was far lower than market expectations. The export volume from August 1 to 15 increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month-on-month, and the demand was strong. Indonesia's biodiesel policy provided long-term support for prices. In China, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in August remained high, and the oil mill operating rate was high. Although the export of domestic soybean oil to India increased, the inventory accumulation trend of oil mills could not be stopped. Palm oil inventories may increase, rapeseed oil inventories continued to decrease, and the demand is expected to pick up with the approaching of the double festivals. The preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce boosted rapeseed oil prices. Supported by factors such as soybean raw material costs, external palm oil prices, and demand recovery, edible oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [6]. - Meals: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area of US soybeans. Although the yield per unit increased significantly, the initial inventory, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans all decreased. Most US soybeans are in the critical pod-setting stage, and there are concerns about the hot and dry weather in some areas in the Midwest, which may affect yields. The anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed imports increased import costs, and the market was worried about supply reduction. However, Brazil had a bumper soybean harvest, and the production outlook for US soybeans was strong. The high premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly declined, but it is difficult to change the pattern before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, providing strong cost support for domestic soybean meal. The arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is high, and the oil mill operating rate is generally high. Soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and downstream purchasing sentiment has returned to caution. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [8]. Agricultural Products - Livestock: On the supply side, the average trading weight of pigs across the country continued to decline. Due to factors such as high temperatures and the positive price difference between fat and standard pigs, slaughterhouses increased the purchase of low-priced standard pigs, and the overall purchase weight decreased. It is expected that the trading weight in most areas will continue to decline. On the demand side, the settlement price of pigs at key slaughterhouses last week showed a downward trend. Affected by factors such as the accelerated slaughter rhythm of farmers and high temperatures affecting terminal consumption, slaughterhouses pressured prices. The average operating rate of key slaughterhouses increased, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs fluctuated. In the context of increasing supply and restricted consumption demand, the weekly average price of pigs is expected to remain volatile [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The impact of weather on the main natural rubber production areas has weakened, but geopolitical conflicts still slightly disrupt rubber tapping. In the Yunnan production area, the profit from rubber tapping increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials supported high purchase prices. In the Hainan production area, the weather was good, but the glue output was lower than expected. Driven by the futures market, local processing plants were more active in purchasing, and raw material purchase prices increased. In Thailand, the price of cup lump rubber continued to rise, but profits continued to narrow, and geopolitical conflicts restricted rubber tapping progress in some areas. In the Vietnamese production area, the weather was good, and raw material prices also rose. The utilization rate of the sample semi-steel tire enterprises in China decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of the sample all-steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The inventory at Qingdao Port decreased, and the market is still in a situation of oversupply, but the gap has narrowed. As the geopolitical situation is expected to ease and rainfall increases in the production areas, the supply of raw materials is expected to be tight, driving up rubber prices. Domestic spot inventories are expected to continue to decline, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [10]. Polyester - PX: The expectation of easing the Russia-Ukraine situation continued to put pressure on oil prices, and oil prices declined. The PTA load fluctuated, and the polyester load rebounded. The short-term supply and demand of near-month PX were slightly weaker but still tight, and the PXN spread was relatively strong. PX prices fluctuated with oil prices [10]. - PTA: Oil prices fluctuated significantly, and although the PXN spread was strong, cost support was average. PTA supply gradually recovered, and the load of downstream polyester factories began to rebound, improving the supply and demand situation. In the short term, PTA prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. - MEG: Port inventories may have continued to increase slightly last week. Terminal demand was sluggish, domestic production gradually recovered, and imports fluctuated, increasing supply pressure. In the medium term, MEG supply and demand are expected to be in a balanced state. In the short term, cost fluctuations are large, and low inventories support the futures price. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. - PR: The supply of polyester bottle chips was stable, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid restocking at low prices. The peak season performance was poor, and purchases were cautious. The market is expected to be weak with cost fluctuations [11]. - PF: The decline in oil prices dragged down polyester costs, and there was no significant positive support for the fundamentals of short fibers. Prices are expected to decline with raw materials [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Pessimistic sentiment has slightly recovered, with the main contract experiencing wide - range fluctuations. Given the large recent volatility, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set. In the context of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2][5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period. On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period. Also on August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The eurozone's July services PMI preliminary value reached 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The eurozone's July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than June's 0.2 and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022. In the US, the July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The US July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3][4]. 3.3 Trade and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3.4 Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On August 14, the main contract 2510 closed at 1359.5, with a decline of 0.18%, a trading volume of 32,100 lots, and an open interest of 56,700 lots, a decrease of 4042 lots from the previous day. The market's macro - sentiment has slightly recovered, but due to the possible stabilization of market freight rates, the long - short game is intense, and the market fluctuates widely. Except for the main contract, other contracts have risen. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Short - term strategy**: For risk - takers, a light - position long attempt can be made around 1300 for the 2510 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - losses should be set. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines temporarily or make a light - position attempt. - **Long - term strategy**: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. 3.6 Contract Rules Adjustment - The up - and down limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]. 3.7 Shipping Industry Forecast - After a 6% growth in global container shipping volume in 2024, it is expected to grow by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025 after scrapping 100,000 TEU of capacity each year in 2023 and 2024. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 3.1 million TEU in 2024, 1.8 million TEU in 2025, and 1.6 million TEU in 2026. Currently, there are 9.3 million TEU of ship orders globally, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, higher than 27% in 2024 [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the combination of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the complexity of market games is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Although the market's macro - sentiment has slightly recovered, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5]. 3. Key Points by Content Freight Index - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7, and the previous value was 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8, and the previous value was 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Market Conditions - On August 14, the main contract 2510 closed at 1359.5, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 3.21 million lots and an open interest of 56,700 lots, a decrease of 4042 lots from the previous day [5]. - The market sentiment has slightly recovered, but due to the stabilization of market freight rates, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. After the close, except for the main contract, other contracts have increased [5]. Trade Policy - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress, and the tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. Geopolitical Situation - On August 13, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request to Egypt, including asking Israel to agree in writing to permanently end the war and abandon any plan to occupy Gaza and provide international guarantees. Hamas negotiation representatives arrived in Egypt this week to restart the cease - fire and hostage release negotiations [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 on the 2510 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward movement [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Weakening [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [7] - Pulp: Consolidation [7] - Logs: Oscillation [7] - Edible oils: Oscillation with a bullish bias [7] - Oilseeds and meals: Stronger oscillation [8] - Agricultural products: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soft commodities: Oscillation [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Views - The short-term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the expectations from the Politburo meeting were not met. The expected domestic supply policies have been temporarily disproven, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market corrections due to expectation deviations [2]. - The Fed's September rate cut expectations have been frustrated again. The US July PPI soared year-on-year to 3.3%, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and the month-on-month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022 [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered around real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, which are driven by "decentralization" and hedging needs [4]. - USDA significantly lowered the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month-on-month, which is bullish for the market [8]. Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased slightly month-on-month but were stronger year-on-year. Domestic arrivals decreased month-on-month, and port inventories increased slightly. Terminal demand was weak, and blast furnace hot metal production decreased slightly. Steel mills' profitability was high, and they had little incentive to cut production actively. There are expectations of production cuts in northern regions in late August. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. Real estate and infrastructure demand were weak, causing coking coal prices to decline slightly. Coal mine production recovery was slow, and the inventory of clean coal reached the lowest level since March 2024 last week. Downstream coke and steel enterprises maintained high operating rates. Some coal mines had full pre-sales orders, providing short-term support for coal prices. Supply-side factors are supporting the market, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. To break through the previous high, a continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is required. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: There were news of production restrictions for independent steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan, leading to expectations of supply cuts. Building material demand decreased month-on-month, and external demand exports were overdrawn in advance. Real estate investment continued to decline, and total demand was unlikely to show counter-seasonal performance. With no increase in annual total demand, a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half is expected. The profits of the five major steel products were decent, production increased slightly, apparent demand decreased, and steel mill inventories accelerated their accumulation last week. Social inventories increased at a faster pace. There are expectations of production restrictions during the military parade in mid-August, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market is not significant. There are still expectations of stable growth in the steel industry in the short term. With the arrival of the traditional peak season and environmental protection production restrictions in northern regions during the military parade for at least two weeks, finished steel products are supported by macro and policy factors in the short term. It is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels [2]. - **Glass**: Glass prices were in a downward channel. New real estate relaxation policies were introduced, but they had little short-term impact on glass demand. There are expectations of glass factory shutdowns during the military parade, but it is unlikely due to high costs. The operating rate has remained stable recently. Market sentiment has been volatile. The inventory of glass downstream and midstream is low, providing room for restocking, but rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is unlikely to rebound significantly. The trading focus is on "anti-competition and stable growth." After the short-term sentiment is released and the futures price adjusts again, attention should be paid to whether real demand can improve [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.08%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.24%. Funds flowed into the insurance and home appliance sectors and out of the aerospace and defense and communication equipment sectors. The Fed's September rate cut expectations were frustrated again. The implied volatility rebounded, increasing the probability of short-term consolidation. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Chinese government bond rose 1bp, while FR007 and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on August 14, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan. Market interest rates rebounded, and the Treasury bond market declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. The US debt problem may worsen, weakening the US dollar's credit and highlighting gold's de-fiat currency attribute. Geopolitical risks have decreased marginally, but market hedging needs remain due to Trump's tariff policies. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for eight consecutive months. The short-term factors that drove up the gold price have not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may cause short-term fluctuations. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September remains above 90%, and the expectation of further monetary policy easing within the year has increased, supporting the gold price. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [4][7]. Light Industry - **Paper pulp**: The spot market price was mainly consolidating. The latest FOB prices of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased, weakening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper industry was low, and paper mills had high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high-priced pulp. Demand was in the off-season, and only rigid demand purchases were made, which was bearish for pulp prices. The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [7]. - **Logs**: The average daily shipment volume at log ports last week was 64,200 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week. Demand was in the seasonal off-season, but as the peak seasons of September and October approached, the willingness of processors to stock up increased. The average daily outbound volume remained at 64,000 cubic meters. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in July was 1.476 million cubic meters, a 5% increase from the previous month. The shipment volume in July was low, and arrivals in August are expected to remain low. The expected arrivals this week were 190,000 cubic meters, a 60% decrease from the previous week. The supply center has shifted downwards, and the supply pressure is not significant. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The spot market price was stable, and the cost support has strengthened. In the short term, the spot market price is expected to remain stable. With the expected decrease in log arrivals this week, the supply pressure is generally not significant. Processors' willingness to stock up has increased, and the average daily outbound volume remains at 64,000 cubic meters. Log prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory continued to increase, but the end-of-period inventory of 2.1133 million tons was far lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. The production increase was lower than expected but still at a relatively high level. High-frequency data from shipping agencies showed that palm oil export demand has been strong since August, and the expectation of Indonesian biodiesel production at the end of the year is gradually fermenting. The volume of imported soybeans to China in August remains high, and oil mills' operating rates are high. The increase in soybean oil exports to India has alleviated the oversupply pressure. Palm oil inventory may increase, while rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. Double festival stocking may gradually start, and demand is recovering. The preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce has boosted rapeseed oil prices. With the support of soybean raw material costs, external palm oil prices, and recovering demand, edible oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. However, after the previous sharp increase, attention should be paid to the risk of a correction. Focus on the weather in US soybean-growing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [7]. - **Oilseeds and meals**: USDA significantly lowered the US soybean planting area, and production decreased by 1.08 million tons month-on-month, which is bullish for the market. The improvement in US soybean export demand expectations and concerns about the hot and dry weather in some agricultural areas in the US Midwest have boosted US soybean prices. Brazilian soybeans have high premiums due to concentrated demand, increasing the cost of imported soybeans. The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed, including a 75.8% deposit, have increased import costs and raised concerns about supply shortages. However, Brazil has a bumper soybean harvest, and the US soybean production outlook is strong, ensuring sufficient supply. The volume of imported soybeans to China in August is large, and oil mills' operating rates are high. Soybean meal inventory is at a high level and may continue to accumulate. With the addition of low-priced Argentine soybean meal, the supply is very abundant. Downstream buyers are worried about future supply disruptions or higher purchase prices, so they are purchasing in advance and restocking on a rolling basis, driving the trading volume of soybean meal by oil mills to a record high. The main trading volume is for forward basis contracts. Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Focus on the weather in US soybean-growing areas and the arrival of soybeans [8]. - **Agricultural products (Pigs)**: On the supply side, the average trading weight of pigs across the country continued to decline, with a slight decrease of 0.19% to 124.04 kg. The average trading weights in different provinces varied, but the overall trend was downward. High temperatures have slowed down pig growth, and slaughterhouses have increased their purchases of low-priced standard pigs to ease the procurement pressure, leading to a decline in the overall procurement weight. It is expected that the average trading weight of pigs in most areas will continue to decline. On the demand side, the average settlement price of pigs at key slaughterhouses across the country last week was 14.45 yuan/kg, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week. The price has been on a downward trend. Due to factors such as the accelerated slaughter of pigs by farmers and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, slaughterhouses have pressured prices during procurement, causing the price to fall from a high level. The average operating rate of key slaughterhouses was 32.49%, a 0.31 percentage point increase from the previous week. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has been oscillating, and the overall average has remained stable. At the beginning of the week, the tight supply of large pigs in some areas supported the price of fat pigs, widening the price difference. As the supply of large pigs increased in some regions and demand was weak, the price difference narrowed. Near the weekend, the increased enthusiasm of farmers to slaughter pigs led to a concentrated release of standard pig supply, causing the price to drop rapidly and widening the price difference again. With the continuous increase in pig supply and the continued restriction of consumption demand by high temperatures, the average weekly price of pigs may decline in the coming week [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The impact of weather factors on natural rubber production areas has weakened, but the geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, slightly interfering with rubber tapping. The profit from rubber tapping in Yunnan has increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials has supported the purchase price at a high level. The weather in Hainan is good, but the overall latex production is lower than the same period last year and below expectations. Driven by the futures market, local processing factories have increased their procurement enthusiasm, driving up the raw material purchase price. In Thailand, the cup lump price has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the rubber tapping progress in some areas has been restricted by geopolitical factors. The weather in Vietnam is good, and the raw material price has also increased. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a 0.27 percentage point decrease from the previous week and a 9.93 percentage point decrease year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a 0.80 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 0.73 percentage point increase year-on-year. In terms of production, the overall capacity of semi-steel tire enterprises has been dragged down by the shutdown and production cuts of some factories, while the capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of production by some maintenance enterprises and moderate production increases by enterprises with shortages. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires may show a differentiated trend. On the one hand, the resumption of production by maintenance enterprises will provide support, but on the other hand, the maintenance plans of large-scale enterprises may lead to a slight decline in the overall utilization rate. For full-steel tires, as more enterprises resume production, the utilization rate will recover, but the overall increase may be limited due to the production recovery progress. The inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao ports has been decreasing, with a decline in both bonded and general trade warehouse inventories. Due to the continuous low arrival and warehousing of overseas supplies, the overall warehousing rate has further declined compared to the previous period. The decline in the spot price of natural rubber has prompted downstream tire enterprises to replenish their stocks at low prices, significantly increasing the market procurement enthusiasm compared to the previous period and driving up the overall outbound volume at the port. The total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has decreased. The natural rubber market still has a pattern of oversupply, but the gap between supply and demand has narrowed. As the geopolitical situation is expected to ease and rainfall in domestic and foreign main production areas increases in the next period, the expectation of a tight supply of raw materials will drive up rubber prices. The domestic spot inventory is expected to continue to decline. With the concentrated release of positive factors on the supply side and relatively stable demand, the natural rubber price is expected to maintain a relatively strong upward trend in the short term [10]. Chemicals - **PX**: Sanctions risks have supported oil prices, causing oil prices to rise. The PTA load has oscillated, and the polyester load has rebounded. The short-term supply and demand of near-month PX have slightly weakened, but it is still in short supply in the short term. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and PX prices will fluctuate with oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see [10]. - **PTA**: Oil prices have fluctuated significantly. Although the PXN spread is strong, the cost support is average. PTA supply is slowly recovering, and the load of downstream polyester factories has started to rebound, improving the supply and demand situation of PTA. In the short term, PTA prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. - **MEG**: Port inventory increased slightly last week, and future arrivals may be lower than expected. Terminal demand is weak, domestic production is slowly recovering, and imports are oscillating, increasing supply pressure. In the medium term, the supply and demand of MEG are expected to be in a balanced state. Short-term cost fluctuations are large, and low inventory supports the MEG futures price. It is advisable to buy on dips [10]. - **PR**: Oil prices have risen, and the procurement of polyester bottle chips on the demand side has maintained low-price rigid replenishment, with cautious buying on rallies. It is expected that the polyester bottle chip market will fluctuate with polyester costs and show a relatively strong upward trend today [11]. - **PF**: The overnight increase in crude oil prices has provided some support, but the lack of positive factors in the supply and demand expectations of the industrial chain has limited the increase in short fiber prices. It is advisable to wait and see [11].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Team Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties increase the difficulty of market gaming, suggesting light - position participation or observation [5] - The spot freight rate is continuously declining, and the market is bearish on future prices, with the market fluctuating weakly [2][5] Summary by Relevant Content Freight Index Data - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% [3] - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37%; the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% [3] - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39%; the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% [3] - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5%; the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% [3] PMI Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service PMI initial value was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI initial value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - In July, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4] Tariff and Market Situation - Trump's government continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and delays the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announce freight rate increases, and the spot market has a small price increase to test the market [5] - The China - US tariff is postponed for another 90 days, and Maersk's recent quotes are continuously decreasing [5] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and take partial profits; go short lightly for the EC2512 contract and take profits. Set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and observe or try with a light position [5] - Long - term strategy: For each contract, take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] Contract Information - On August 12, the main contract 2510 closed at 1417.6, down 1.48%, with a trading volume of 3.60 million lots and an open interest of 5.60 million lots, a decrease of 734 lots from the previous day [5] - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts combined with tariff fluctuations make trading difficult, so it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [5]. - The spot freight rate is continuously declining, and the market is pessimistic about future prices. The market is oscillating weakly, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index in July jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit transit trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases, and the market price range was set with a small price increase to test the market [5]. - The US - China tariff negotiation was postponed for 90 days. Maersk's recent quotes have been continuously declining, and the market is pessimistic about future prices [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits; go short lightly for the EC2512 contract and take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Information - On August 12, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1417.6, down 1.48%, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and an open interest of 560,000 lots, a decrease of 734 lots from the previous day [5]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5].